This is one of my essays which is a vast landscape and needs to be thoughtful.
For over two-thousand years, Germany has been affected by multiculturalism. When the Romans came, they inflicted change and character to the culture. When Jewish traders came, they inflicted change and character to the culture. When various groups from Spain, Czech, France, Greece, and Turkey came....they inflicted change and character to the culture. When WW II ended, the US, France, the UK, and Soviet Union....inflicted change and character to the culture. When Elvis came, he inflicted change and character to the culture. When the Beatles came....well, yeah....you know the story.
For anyone who thinks this is a pure society, well....no. It's never been a purely Germanic society.
When one walks around a major urban area like Mainz or Wiesbaden, and you tend to notice various restaurants which aren't typical schnitzel or bratwurst houses. You've got various American franchise operations, Turkish kebab shops, Greek, Italian, Asian, etc.
Are certain groups trying to reshape or drag Germans along to an outside culture? Out of the eight-two million...I'd take a guess that a quarter-million of that group are trying in various ways to bring a challenge to the German system. Getting Sharia-Law to be discussed....to drag a German into a discussion allowing a 'guest' to have his two wives....to suggest some unfairness on religious concepts, well....it's not really having much success.
Part of the issue is that unlike past generations who were forced into a massive scale of acceptance on German lifestyles...because of the internet, you can retain a good part of your old country. I can sit in my home and view the Wall Street Journal daily....watch CNN or some Nashville local network....and still be fairly attached to a country beyond Germany.
Another part of the issue is that some German intellectuals hyped up multiculturalism. They spoke to the values of a society who were multi-culti. That gentle push by the German intellectuals reached a point around five years ago where people did an examination of the behavior, and found that it's more or less a failure. The intellectuals were wrong. Even Merkel now admits that.
I've sat and observed Chinese who've come through Germany and Europe. In some ways, they are a great outsider to observe Germany, and comment. Most stand in amazement when looking at scenery, landscape, and gardens. They stand for an eternity and look over architecture and design. I was watching a French journalist interview a Chinese guy admiring Paris, and the Chinese guy's chief comment was about the clean air, and how wonderful it was to breathe such air. In some ways, you need a bit of multiculturalism around to help you realize how good you got it.
Ghettos in German society? There were ghettos existing long before 2013, and there will continue to be such ghettos.
Will too much multiculturalism destroy or hinder Germany? I suspect when you reach a stage where Germans go beyond whining, and do some pretty harsh political action.....we will drift off into an extreme political consequence era, and resolve some issues. It's not an action that will be preferred but it tends to correct a few things and give the impression of better days ahead.
Monday, February 12, 2018
Poll Conducted
Focus put a piece today...short in length, but talking about a recent poll that BILD did via INSA.
If an election were held today, the parties would be getting these numbers:
CDU (Merkel's party): 29.5 percent (a fairly big drop)
SPD: 16.5 percent (dropping four points over the past month)
Greens: 13 percent
FDP: 10.5 percent
Linke Party: 11.5 percent
AfD: 15 percent
What this basically says? Both the CDU and SPD are losing public appeal. The Greens and AfD benefit from these losses.
If Merkel were forced to call for a new election? Well, it's really not a time to go and do something that stupid.
If the trend were to hold for the next year? I would suggest that the SPD would bottom out at 14 percent, and that both the Greens and AfD would pass them, with both reaching 16-to-17 percent. All of this simply lays out the lousy political landscape in Germany at present, for the two significant parties.
If an election were held today, the parties would be getting these numbers:
CDU (Merkel's party): 29.5 percent (a fairly big drop)
SPD: 16.5 percent (dropping four points over the past month)
Greens: 13 percent
FDP: 10.5 percent
Linke Party: 11.5 percent
AfD: 15 percent
What this basically says? Both the CDU and SPD are losing public appeal. The Greens and AfD benefit from these losses.
If Merkel were forced to call for a new election? Well, it's really not a time to go and do something that stupid.
If the trend were to hold for the next year? I would suggest that the SPD would bottom out at 14 percent, and that both the Greens and AfD would pass them, with both reaching 16-to-17 percent. All of this simply lays out the lousy political landscape in Germany at present, for the two significant parties.
The Chat Forum That Never Came
On Sunday nights, at 9:45 PM...via German public TV (ARD)....you typically have a live political forum (the Anne Will Show).
It's typically run 40 Sundays out of the year, with holidays and the summer vacation period as 'off-days'.
Last night was supposed to be an off-night, but the crew with the show attempted to do a last minute show with the CDU and SPD representatives....to explain to the public the full coalition deal (and probably the dump of SPD chief Martin Schulz as Foreign Minister).
According to Focus, the crew put a fair amount of effort into the live forum, and were told at some point in the afternoon that neither the SPD nor CDU were willing to send anyone there. 'Reluctance' was the chief reason given.
There is some suggestion in the media that there is a tense atmosphere now existing between both groups and some frustrations.
Live forum tonight? Typically, this would also be an off-night because of the Fasching weekend for a live forum.
So it's likely that we will go through the entire week without a single real comment via live forums here in Germany. What this indicates to the public? Well....this whole coalition deal is lousy, and it's just designed to get folks a year or two into the future....where another election can be held.
Generally, after having probably watched over two-hundred live forums here in Germany....I'd say that they can be informative, and with the right people....somewhat humorous. They can also be 'triggers' for some frustrative feelings, and hostile comments.
It's typically run 40 Sundays out of the year, with holidays and the summer vacation period as 'off-days'.
Last night was supposed to be an off-night, but the crew with the show attempted to do a last minute show with the CDU and SPD representatives....to explain to the public the full coalition deal (and probably the dump of SPD chief Martin Schulz as Foreign Minister).
According to Focus, the crew put a fair amount of effort into the live forum, and were told at some point in the afternoon that neither the SPD nor CDU were willing to send anyone there. 'Reluctance' was the chief reason given.
There is some suggestion in the media that there is a tense atmosphere now existing between both groups and some frustrations.
Live forum tonight? Typically, this would also be an off-night because of the Fasching weekend for a live forum.
So it's likely that we will go through the entire week without a single real comment via live forums here in Germany. What this indicates to the public? Well....this whole coalition deal is lousy, and it's just designed to get folks a year or two into the future....where another election can be held.
Generally, after having probably watched over two-hundred live forums here in Germany....I'd say that they can be informative, and with the right people....somewhat humorous. They can also be 'triggers' for some frustrative feelings, and hostile comments.
Sunday, February 11, 2018
4 March: An End to the German Election Madness
What is currently unfolding now....with the SPD Party and the CDU/CSU folks in some agreement over a government coalition....there is this little rule existing for the SPD folks that they must have a membership vote.
There are 460,000 members of the party within Germany, and typically....75-percent will vote on the coalition. The 4 March day is the point where the votes will be counted within the party (a Sunday).
The odds here? Totally unknown.
From the pre-vote about a month ago....it was near a 55-percent 'for' and that was typically very low for the membership to give a hint over the coalition talks. Usually, it would go near 75-percent 'for'.
What's the big negative? The youth association within the SPD are very bitter and negative over what the Party elite have done. That was all before Schulz stepping back and the episode occurring on Friday.
If you watch German public TV, the experts there say it's fairly safe....probably in the 55-to-65 percent range. Before Schulz fell out with the Foreign Minister position, I might have agreed. Now I think it'll be fairly close to 50-50....so there's a risk that this fails.
The script on 5 March, if it fails? Merkel has some meetings and decides if they go to a minority government or have another election.
In some ways, this is a fairly dramatic moment with the 460,000 SPD members.
There are 460,000 members of the party within Germany, and typically....75-percent will vote on the coalition. The 4 March day is the point where the votes will be counted within the party (a Sunday).
The odds here? Totally unknown.
From the pre-vote about a month ago....it was near a 55-percent 'for' and that was typically very low for the membership to give a hint over the coalition talks. Usually, it would go near 75-percent 'for'.
What's the big negative? The youth association within the SPD are very bitter and negative over what the Party elite have done. That was all before Schulz stepping back and the episode occurring on Friday.
If you watch German public TV, the experts there say it's fairly safe....probably in the 55-to-65 percent range. Before Schulz fell out with the Foreign Minister position, I might have agreed. Now I think it'll be fairly close to 50-50....so there's a risk that this fails.
The script on 5 March, if it fails? Merkel has some meetings and decides if they go to a minority government or have another election.
In some ways, this is a fairly dramatic moment with the 460,000 SPD members.
Baukindergeld Explained
I sat and watched a four-minute German news piece this week, and they chatted over this idea that the CDU and SPD parties are discussing....Baukindergeld. It loosely translates to meaning housing-child-subsidy money.
The program starts in 2018. It would allow each family with a kid....to receive 1,200 Euro a year for buying property and paying mortgages.
The general rules? The kid has to live in the house. Up to age 25....as long as the kid lives in the house....the parents would receive the 1,200 Euro per year. The family can only receive the subsidy, if they make less than 75,000 Euro combined. If you make 76,000 Euro....then you get nothing. As it's written right now....it's a subsidy for ten years.
Oddly, from 1996 to 2005....a similar program existed, and then came to an end. Some folks would suggest that this new program might go the same route.
The plus-up here? Well...you are basically talking about two entire mortgage payments in a year, if you were to go and buy a property. You see, there's a lot of hyped-up negativity over affordable apartment housing, and some belief the answer out of this....is to lead people to buy houses instead.
The program starts in 2018. It would allow each family with a kid....to receive 1,200 Euro a year for buying property and paying mortgages.
The general rules? The kid has to live in the house. Up to age 25....as long as the kid lives in the house....the parents would receive the 1,200 Euro per year. The family can only receive the subsidy, if they make less than 75,000 Euro combined. If you make 76,000 Euro....then you get nothing. As it's written right now....it's a subsidy for ten years.
Oddly, from 1996 to 2005....a similar program existed, and then came to an end. Some folks would suggest that this new program might go the same route.
The plus-up here? Well...you are basically talking about two entire mortgage payments in a year, if you were to go and buy a property. You see, there's a lot of hyped-up negativity over affordable apartment housing, and some belief the answer out of this....is to lead people to buy houses instead.
Public Political Focus in Germany
It's been roughly 72 hours since the dramatic fall of Martin Schulz from the SPD Party, and his promised position of Foreign Secretary. If you use the German public TV networks (ARD or ZDF)....you'd now find one single brief article still posted. There's a large attempt by the public media to move on.....quickly. Newspapers and news magazines? Well....no, they are still digging into it and the public makes a fair amount of criticism and commentary.
I read through an hour's worth of material this morning. Typically, you can divide the public criticism into five categories:
1. The public statement of Schulz undergoing a meteoric-like rise in early 2017, and then going a meteoric-like fall in early 2018. This crowd tends to blame SPD insiders for the pump-up action and the news media for falling for the quick rise.
2. A public statement suggesting that Schulz was not really well known in German circles....that he was a EU-political figure for the past decade.
3. A public sentiment that the President of Germany (Frank-Water Steinmeier, SPD) helped to craft this mess in late December as the CDU coalition deal with the Greens and FDP. Some feel that Steinmeier should have allowed the party to stay out of the coalition, as they had promised in September.
4. There's some public sentiment that the entire top layer of leadership within the SPD are helpless and lacking. The fact that Gabriel learned that he was totally out of a job in the cabinet and the party apparatus itself....through the news media, has given a few folks in German society a bitter view of how the party runs itself.
5. Finally, you come to those who see Merkel, Schulz, the CDU, and the SPD as a 'sinking ship'. It's politics in general for these German, who don't trust public TV news, and regard this event as just a good example of how things are broken.
It's a holiday weekend in Germany....with people in a fest-like mood. You won't see any public TV forums for another seven days. Schulz has shut off public commentary. Gabriel, the same. A handful of friends of each....comment publicly, but mostly via news magazines. Public TV is finished with the topic and trying to push people on.
There's still the vote within the SPD Party for the coalition deal, and if it does pass, I would speculate that it'll be some 51-to-55 percent marginal pass rate. If the coalition vote does fail....well, it might create a pretty harsh reality....a minority government or another entire election. Neither suggest some happy feeling within the public.
I read through an hour's worth of material this morning. Typically, you can divide the public criticism into five categories:
1. The public statement of Schulz undergoing a meteoric-like rise in early 2017, and then going a meteoric-like fall in early 2018. This crowd tends to blame SPD insiders for the pump-up action and the news media for falling for the quick rise.
2. A public statement suggesting that Schulz was not really well known in German circles....that he was a EU-political figure for the past decade.
3. A public sentiment that the President of Germany (Frank-Water Steinmeier, SPD) helped to craft this mess in late December as the CDU coalition deal with the Greens and FDP. Some feel that Steinmeier should have allowed the party to stay out of the coalition, as they had promised in September.
4. There's some public sentiment that the entire top layer of leadership within the SPD are helpless and lacking. The fact that Gabriel learned that he was totally out of a job in the cabinet and the party apparatus itself....through the news media, has given a few folks in German society a bitter view of how the party runs itself.
5. Finally, you come to those who see Merkel, Schulz, the CDU, and the SPD as a 'sinking ship'. It's politics in general for these German, who don't trust public TV news, and regard this event as just a good example of how things are broken.
It's a holiday weekend in Germany....with people in a fest-like mood. You won't see any public TV forums for another seven days. Schulz has shut off public commentary. Gabriel, the same. A handful of friends of each....comment publicly, but mostly via news magazines. Public TV is finished with the topic and trying to push people on.
There's still the vote within the SPD Party for the coalition deal, and if it does pass, I would speculate that it'll be some 51-to-55 percent marginal pass rate. If the coalition vote does fail....well, it might create a pretty harsh reality....a minority government or another entire election. Neither suggest some happy feeling within the public.
Saturday, February 10, 2018
The Ostfeld Story
In a dozen years....there's going to be another 12,000 residents living in Wiesbaden....in a newly designed neighbor or borough referred to as 'Ostfeld'.
Now, if you were a Wiesbadener or a former resident of the town (say from the Camp Lindsey days).....you'd sit and pause over this, and then ask....where the heck is 'Ostfeld'?
Well....if you drew a triangle between Mainz-Kastel, Erbenheim, and Hainnerberg-Wiesbaden.....you'd come to this chunk of land which has been used for twenty-odd years....as a landfill. Yes, it's a fairly big chunk of property. And this area....kinda made into a hill residence now....will become this new neighborhood of Wiesbaden.
Naturally, you'd sit and pause over this, and kinda think.....as best as they might plan this out....you would just sense building a huge neighborhood on top of a trash-dump would be unwise. But, it's signed off and certified as legit.
These new 12,000 folks? I'm guessing that as time goes by and apartment buildings are built....no one will really say much about this, and maybe six months after you move in or buy your condo....it'll arise one day that it's all built on a garbage dump. You will sit and pause over the matter and just shake your head because you never thought this kind of thing would happen in real life.
Now, if you were a Wiesbadener or a former resident of the town (say from the Camp Lindsey days).....you'd sit and pause over this, and then ask....where the heck is 'Ostfeld'?
Well....if you drew a triangle between Mainz-Kastel, Erbenheim, and Hainnerberg-Wiesbaden.....you'd come to this chunk of land which has been used for twenty-odd years....as a landfill. Yes, it's a fairly big chunk of property. And this area....kinda made into a hill residence now....will become this new neighborhood of Wiesbaden.
Naturally, you'd sit and pause over this, and kinda think.....as best as they might plan this out....you would just sense building a huge neighborhood on top of a trash-dump would be unwise. But, it's signed off and certified as legit.
These new 12,000 folks? I'm guessing that as time goes by and apartment buildings are built....no one will really say much about this, and maybe six months after you move in or buy your condo....it'll arise one day that it's all built on a garbage dump. You will sit and pause over the matter and just shake your head because you never thought this kind of thing would happen in real life.
The 38 Hours Without Sleep
Spiegel (the German news magazine) did an outstanding article to lay out what occurred this week with the SPD Party and Martin Schulz. I would strongly recommend it (though it's in German).
At some point early on in this week, Martin Schulz basically went thirty-eight hours without any sleep. This was an effort to wrap up the coalition agreement between the two parties.
If you go back over the past year, he's put a lot of time into politics, and probably had very little sleep.
On Thursday of this past week....the crap was hitting the fan all over the SPD as Sigmar Gabriel had been maneuvered out of any significant posts within the government or his own party. By Thursday evening....Gabriel had sent out a public statement and blasted the leadership of the Party. The blast aimed at both Schulz, and the new Party chief, Nahles.
By Friday morning, the party leadership called up Schulz who was trying to finally get some rest and unloaded the position of the party....decline the Foreign Minister post. There is evidently some harsh disagreement, and at some point after lunch...Schulz chilled out and came to the conclusion that situation dimmed pretty quickly.
A logical guy....resting and getting enough sleep along the way....would have forecasted this issue back in late December, and labeled some party-post as a point where Gabriel could end up. But I don't think Schulz sat and prioritized over the approaching storm. Nor did any of the dozen SPD leaders who could have avoided this entire mess by simply having a white-board and laying out the people that they could not insult or screw-over.
In some ways, I blame the lack of sleep and rest for creating this entire environment. Everyone felt they were working against some clock....to deliver a coalition government and some kind of public-demanded democracy. In the end, it is something less.
At some point early on in this week, Martin Schulz basically went thirty-eight hours without any sleep. This was an effort to wrap up the coalition agreement between the two parties.
If you go back over the past year, he's put a lot of time into politics, and probably had very little sleep.
On Thursday of this past week....the crap was hitting the fan all over the SPD as Sigmar Gabriel had been maneuvered out of any significant posts within the government or his own party. By Thursday evening....Gabriel had sent out a public statement and blasted the leadership of the Party. The blast aimed at both Schulz, and the new Party chief, Nahles.
By Friday morning, the party leadership called up Schulz who was trying to finally get some rest and unloaded the position of the party....decline the Foreign Minister post. There is evidently some harsh disagreement, and at some point after lunch...Schulz chilled out and came to the conclusion that situation dimmed pretty quickly.
A logical guy....resting and getting enough sleep along the way....would have forecasted this issue back in late December, and labeled some party-post as a point where Gabriel could end up. But I don't think Schulz sat and prioritized over the approaching storm. Nor did any of the dozen SPD leaders who could have avoided this entire mess by simply having a white-board and laying out the people that they could not insult or screw-over.
In some ways, I blame the lack of sleep and rest for creating this entire environment. Everyone felt they were working against some clock....to deliver a coalition government and some kind of public-demanded democracy. In the end, it is something less.
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