This Sunday....4th of March, there's a vote down in Switzerland. It's an odd vote....over a referendum to dissolve the national tax on public-run TV.
Most all European countries have some type of tax that is mandated on the public to support a public TV and radio network. The German version requires 17.50 Euro per house, per month. If you go and talk to working-class people....especially in Germany....it's highly divided about enthusiasm for the public network. Most younger people (15-to-25 years old) rarely if ever....watch the public network, or listen to public radio. Germans over the age of fifty...probably probably have a 80-to-90 percent approval rating of the German public network system.
In the Swiss case, polls have been done in the past week. One poll shows a 20-point lead on keeping the public network. The other poll is about a 15-point lead on the public tax remaining. Now, we can admit the US poll folks occasionally screw up, and that's absolutely true for the BREXIT polls which showed all the way through that a 5 to 10 point no-exit lead existed. I would tend to believe the polling in this case.
If the dissolve vote got to 50-percent? I think Swiss folks would be shocked, but it would lead onto German public TV folks starting to worry about how they can avoid the same trend. There was a public TV forum last night....Maichberg on ARD (Channel One), which went on for an hour over the topic. Several 'experts' were brought on and talked about the good things, the arrogance often displayed by public TV, and the perception by the public that things were often slanted to benefit certain political trends. The curious thing was that these were selected folks with noted backgrounds. They avoided for the most part....discussions with regular people.
This little vote in Switzerland really should only concern the Swiss but it's bringing up a major topic if the 'dump-them' vote wins....across all of Europe.
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Tuesday, February 27, 2018
The Essen Story
Days ago, I wrote an essay describing the charity foundation group in Essen, Germany....who'd made the decision about their grocery-give-away situation....that you had to be a German citizen to use it. The emphasis of this story is that the trend over the past ten years had led to more and more Germans (particularly the older folks) where they really needed the free grocery situation in order to survive. But there was this second trend that the foundation group had followed.....more and more of their customers were non-German (recent immigrants). They were taking up more of the food. So the leadership of the foundation had made a rule to say their operation was for Germans only.
Naturally, this raised a big stink, and a bunch of folks labeled the charity in a critical way. I'll avoid using the N-word.
Well, over the past couple of days....even the Chancellor (Merkel) got around to mildly criticizing the organization's decision and saying that you really can't deny the 'foreign poor'.
This has basically led the chairman of the group....Jorg Sartor....to consider resigning. He doesn't need the hassle or stress. But he's found hundreds, if not thousands, of Germans....approving of his handling of the program.
The problem I see is that a fair number of the recent immigrant group, and even those who came before this 2013 era....have discovered that it's tough in Germany and economically challenging. Even if you are on Hartz IV or some immigrant program....you as the foreigner, are probably just making enough to survive.
These charity operations have been pushed to limit to open up each week and provide what they can. There's simply a limit to what they can provide to their 'customers'.
All of this....quietly....leads back to Berlin, the lousy state of the pension program, a lot of immigrants with no real hope for the future, prioritization over spending, and marginal leadership. If the welfare crowd were paid enough, they wouldn't need to visit the free-food charity operations. If jobs were plentiful, they'd make enough to pay for their needs..
Naturally, this raised a big stink, and a bunch of folks labeled the charity in a critical way. I'll avoid using the N-word.
Well, over the past couple of days....even the Chancellor (Merkel) got around to mildly criticizing the organization's decision and saying that you really can't deny the 'foreign poor'.
This has basically led the chairman of the group....Jorg Sartor....to consider resigning. He doesn't need the hassle or stress. But he's found hundreds, if not thousands, of Germans....approving of his handling of the program.
The problem I see is that a fair number of the recent immigrant group, and even those who came before this 2013 era....have discovered that it's tough in Germany and economically challenging. Even if you are on Hartz IV or some immigrant program....you as the foreigner, are probably just making enough to survive.
These charity operations have been pushed to limit to open up each week and provide what they can. There's simply a limit to what they can provide to their 'customers'.
All of this....quietly....leads back to Berlin, the lousy state of the pension program, a lot of immigrants with no real hope for the future, prioritization over spending, and marginal leadership. If the welfare crowd were paid enough, they wouldn't need to visit the free-food charity operations. If jobs were plentiful, they'd make enough to pay for their needs..
Sunday, February 25, 2018
Merkel and the Conservative 'Dance'
Sundays in Germany is typically where some political discussions will occur with the major newspapers and magazines....either discussing problems or laying out future trends.
I noticed via ARD (public German TV, Channel One)....the big topic today covers the CDU Party (Merkel's party) and the new brilliant idea....making the party 'more' conservative.
For those who aren't aware....the CDU has been (maybe since the 1950s) more or less....the right-of-center party. Most folks over the age of 60 in Germany would say that up until around 2000....this was a conservative political party, then they'd grin and say since Merkel came along, it's been racing to be almost attached to the SPD Party (the left of center political group). The same crowd (all older Germans) would hint that there's practically no real difference between the CDU and SPD today.
Why this shift? They currently reside at around 32-percent of the public support....while their arch-enemy....the SPD Party....resides at near 18-percent.
I've come to this belief that the Merkel intellectual crowd are fearful of this new world where the AfD exists, and that the SPD has been demoralized and hurt to the extent that they will be forever locked into the 16-to-22 percent situation. To reverse this trend, they believe they need to dismantle the AfD potential, and 'pretend' (my word for it) to be conservative and cause former CDU/SPD folks voting AfD (anti-immigration) to return back to the CDU and SPD, like they were.
The next election (nationally) is in 2021. If the CDU were able to fake people out enough, and convince them they were conservative, then AfD folks (who used to be CDU or SPD) would go and likely return to their former parties, and thus the AfD would start to sink...falling below 5-percent and thus not be a participant in the Bundestag.
Now I admit....this is awful stupid, and it's basically designed (if true) to help the SPD folks return to their former 'glory'. But yet here we are....with some leaders of the CDU going into this ARD article....trying to suggest that they will be more conservative in the future.
Will the public buy off on this? A decade ago, yes....it would have been simple and people would buy the fake conservative angle. But today? I'm not so sure. Along the way, you would have to engage on the immigration issue and and show some anti-migrant values. I just don't see the current group of CDU members talking like that, or even being able to fake people on some change.
The other odd thing to ask....if they did move to the right....would people even notice?
I noticed via ARD (public German TV, Channel One)....the big topic today covers the CDU Party (Merkel's party) and the new brilliant idea....making the party 'more' conservative.
For those who aren't aware....the CDU has been (maybe since the 1950s) more or less....the right-of-center party. Most folks over the age of 60 in Germany would say that up until around 2000....this was a conservative political party, then they'd grin and say since Merkel came along, it's been racing to be almost attached to the SPD Party (the left of center political group). The same crowd (all older Germans) would hint that there's practically no real difference between the CDU and SPD today.
Why this shift? They currently reside at around 32-percent of the public support....while their arch-enemy....the SPD Party....resides at near 18-percent.
I've come to this belief that the Merkel intellectual crowd are fearful of this new world where the AfD exists, and that the SPD has been demoralized and hurt to the extent that they will be forever locked into the 16-to-22 percent situation. To reverse this trend, they believe they need to dismantle the AfD potential, and 'pretend' (my word for it) to be conservative and cause former CDU/SPD folks voting AfD (anti-immigration) to return back to the CDU and SPD, like they were.
The next election (nationally) is in 2021. If the CDU were able to fake people out enough, and convince them they were conservative, then AfD folks (who used to be CDU or SPD) would go and likely return to their former parties, and thus the AfD would start to sink...falling below 5-percent and thus not be a participant in the Bundestag.
Now I admit....this is awful stupid, and it's basically designed (if true) to help the SPD folks return to their former 'glory'. But yet here we are....with some leaders of the CDU going into this ARD article....trying to suggest that they will be more conservative in the future.
Will the public buy off on this? A decade ago, yes....it would have been simple and people would buy the fake conservative angle. But today? I'm not so sure. Along the way, you would have to engage on the immigration issue and and show some anti-migrant values. I just don't see the current group of CDU members talking like that, or even being able to fake people on some change.
The other odd thing to ask....if they did move to the right....would people even notice?
Saturday, February 24, 2018
German Kids Story
I essay often over German issues, European issues, (both on this blog) and American issues (via my other blog). One of my American topics that I often essay on....is changing path and behavior issues of American kids. In this essay, I'll talk to the problem of behavioral issues for German kids and society problems in dealing with kids.
It's a piece that Deutsche Welle chatted about this week and it says a great deal about what's changed over the past couple of decades in Germany.
Up in north Germany, near Hanover....teachers and leadership at one particular school (Aue-Fallstein elementary) finally had enough and sent out a letter to the parents of the school (roughly 170 kids at this facility). Basically, they are fed up and want parents to help deal with extreme violent (often physical) behavior. Just talking to kids and using the normal set rules....won't work anymore with the teachers.
Kids stage fights both in the school and in the playground. Kids just get up and leave the classroom....often leaving the school itself.
The local folks tried to talk to the school leadership but they didn't really want to get dragged into some public forum, or didn't seem to want to admit how bad this had become.
We aren't talking about 5th graders or 7th graders.....these are first through fourth grade.
So what's the new firm measure? Your kid got issues today....they escort the kid to the director's office and call the parents....you need to come by and pick the kid up. They won't baby-sit the kid anymore. Oddly, the news folks say that the idea has not exactly worked because parents in some cases have refused to show up.
Five-day suspensions? More common. They admit that if there are physical injuries accomplished on a 'victim'....the cops get called, and there's some record-keeping going on.
The thing is....if you and look around Germany, everyone has little stories about this now. Lack of respect for teachers and authority. In ability to handle stress. Violence in the school.
It's not a US thing....it's a behavioral issue that is going across society. Remember, I was talking here about first-grade, second-grade, etc...types of kids. Just imagine what they will be doing in five years.
Why?
I think video-gaming made part of this possible. I also think the parenting behavior in Germany over the past twenty years has slipped. Patchwork family status might play some role. Fatherless homes, another possibility. Kids think they can act like some nutcase, and get away with it. There's no fear of repercussions or consequences.
It's a piece that Deutsche Welle chatted about this week and it says a great deal about what's changed over the past couple of decades in Germany.
Up in north Germany, near Hanover....teachers and leadership at one particular school (Aue-Fallstein elementary) finally had enough and sent out a letter to the parents of the school (roughly 170 kids at this facility). Basically, they are fed up and want parents to help deal with extreme violent (often physical) behavior. Just talking to kids and using the normal set rules....won't work anymore with the teachers.
Kids stage fights both in the school and in the playground. Kids just get up and leave the classroom....often leaving the school itself.
The local folks tried to talk to the school leadership but they didn't really want to get dragged into some public forum, or didn't seem to want to admit how bad this had become.
We aren't talking about 5th graders or 7th graders.....these are first through fourth grade.
So what's the new firm measure? Your kid got issues today....they escort the kid to the director's office and call the parents....you need to come by and pick the kid up. They won't baby-sit the kid anymore. Oddly, the news folks say that the idea has not exactly worked because parents in some cases have refused to show up.
Five-day suspensions? More common. They admit that if there are physical injuries accomplished on a 'victim'....the cops get called, and there's some record-keeping going on.
The thing is....if you and look around Germany, everyone has little stories about this now. Lack of respect for teachers and authority. In ability to handle stress. Violence in the school.
It's not a US thing....it's a behavioral issue that is going across society. Remember, I was talking here about first-grade, second-grade, etc...types of kids. Just imagine what they will be doing in five years.
Why?
I think video-gaming made part of this possible. I also think the parenting behavior in Germany over the past twenty years has slipped. Patchwork family status might play some role. Fatherless homes, another possibility. Kids think they can act like some nutcase, and get away with it. There's no fear of repercussions or consequences.
Responsibility and Drowning
At some point in the summer of 2016, up in northern Hessen around the city of Neukirchen....three Syrian-immigrant kids drowned in a local pond. It was headlines in the region for a day or two, and begged for questions. An investigation started up, and finally this past week....roughly 18 months later, the final report is issued. It is a bit.....different, from what you'd expect.
The authorities say that the three kids (all from one single family, five kids total, ages of the dead were 5, 8 and 9) drown because of neglect by the mayor of Neukirchen.
The pool is called a 'fire-water retention pond' by the authorities....as such, it has to be fenced off and the general public is not allowed access.
The mayor says that it's a 'recreational' pond, so no fencing is required.
So a fair amount of blame is being dished on the mayor.
The kids? One of them had been taught to swim, so it's not clear why that kid drowned. The two younger kids? No swimming classes.
Laws dictate in Germany that if it's a fire-water retention pond....there has to be a 1.25 meter fence around and the public is now allowed access. In this case....no fence. But the signs required? Well, they were in place.
Some parts of the investigation are not complete. For example, there is a suggestion that the mother did not fulfill her obligation of monitoring the kids. The father? He wasn't home....so he can't be accused of the neglect issue. Frankly, I seriously doubt that the authorities will go at this angle because she's already suffered enough.
The mayor being dragged into court? Some prosecutor has to make the decision to do this, and risk losing the case by the local judge seeing this differently. Max jail time if the mayor is convicted? Five years in prison is the max you can hand out for his deal....if convicted.
HR (the Hessen network told most of this story). Its a sad story in some ways. Most of the German kids in this smaller town (7,000 population) probably know about the pond, and have been told by their parents over the years NOT to socialize or play around it. The mayor? On his list of ten-thousand things around the village that need to be improved....this fencing business probably never made the top hundred things. The Syrian family lost three members in some land that they felt was safe, but didn't realize the limits of safety in their own community.
The authorities say that the three kids (all from one single family, five kids total, ages of the dead were 5, 8 and 9) drown because of neglect by the mayor of Neukirchen.
The pool is called a 'fire-water retention pond' by the authorities....as such, it has to be fenced off and the general public is not allowed access.
The mayor says that it's a 'recreational' pond, so no fencing is required.
So a fair amount of blame is being dished on the mayor.
The kids? One of them had been taught to swim, so it's not clear why that kid drowned. The two younger kids? No swimming classes.
Laws dictate in Germany that if it's a fire-water retention pond....there has to be a 1.25 meter fence around and the public is now allowed access. In this case....no fence. But the signs required? Well, they were in place.
Some parts of the investigation are not complete. For example, there is a suggestion that the mother did not fulfill her obligation of monitoring the kids. The father? He wasn't home....so he can't be accused of the neglect issue. Frankly, I seriously doubt that the authorities will go at this angle because she's already suffered enough.
The mayor being dragged into court? Some prosecutor has to make the decision to do this, and risk losing the case by the local judge seeing this differently. Max jail time if the mayor is convicted? Five years in prison is the max you can hand out for his deal....if convicted.
HR (the Hessen network told most of this story). Its a sad story in some ways. Most of the German kids in this smaller town (7,000 population) probably know about the pond, and have been told by their parents over the years NOT to socialize or play around it. The mayor? On his list of ten-thousand things around the village that need to be improved....this fencing business probably never made the top hundred things. The Syrian family lost three members in some land that they felt was safe, but didn't realize the limits of safety in their own community.
Good Movie
Last night, I flipped over to the Arte channel. Arte, for the non-German....is this European creation where culturally-accepted programming....meaning the high-brow stuff (movies, documentaries, concerts) are shown. To be honest, over an entire year....I probably watch between six and ten hours....mostly movies.
Last night, they ran a 2018 movie....'Caught, The Case of K'.
It's basically the true story of a German car restoration guy who got into a relationship with financial advisor gal from Bavaria. The gal was leading a life involved in money-laundering, and the guy may have figured different pieces of the story. The gal, by this point, his wife.....decided to get rid of him....by having a mental process done, and tossing him into a German mental hospital. I know....typically, you murder someone but in her case, she figured she could convince a court he was crazy.
He spends roughly six years trying to convince the court that he's not crazy, and that the wife is the person who ought to face the court.
Movie-wise, I'd give it four stars and say that it's a very interesting story. If you have access to Arte, it's again on around 1 March, at 14:00. In six months, it'll probably be available via Netflix or Amazon.
Last night, they ran a 2018 movie....'Caught, The Case of K'.
It's basically the true story of a German car restoration guy who got into a relationship with financial advisor gal from Bavaria. The gal was leading a life involved in money-laundering, and the guy may have figured different pieces of the story. The gal, by this point, his wife.....decided to get rid of him....by having a mental process done, and tossing him into a German mental hospital. I know....typically, you murder someone but in her case, she figured she could convince a court he was crazy.
He spends roughly six years trying to convince the court that he's not crazy, and that the wife is the person who ought to face the court.
Movie-wise, I'd give it four stars and say that it's a very interesting story. If you have access to Arte, it's again on around 1 March, at 14:00. In six months, it'll probably be available via Netflix or Amazon.
Friday, February 23, 2018
Merkel and Her Migrant Speech
This past week....the Chancellor (Angela Merkel) showed up at the EU headquarters in Brussels to deliver a speech.
The basic tone for the speech was.....a unity position that if you were a EU member....you would show a willing nature to accept migrants and immigrants, or lose funding from the EU.
It was a blunt message for Poland, Czech, and Hungary. To be honest, it was aimed at all other 27 members.
Laying down the new government coming in Germany (the coalition deal)....she proclaimed that they were going to be an all-out pro-EU team.
What happens if the EU did carry out this threat, and blocked funding going to member states? No one has said a lot over this, but I think you'd see the members affected just freeze sending money to the EU.
The way that this whole thing works....each nation has a marked card to send X-amount of money to the EU. They create their own tax base, based on how they feel the public will accept things. Once the EU gets the cash....it goes into a big bucket. The EU has two primary ways to spend through that money. The first is to spend it on themselves (pensions, office money, and salary for the members). The second way is 'gifts' back to each member state to show them the power of the EU.
Grants are generally given out to various cities, and everyone is hyped up to brag how the EU favored them and gave them a massive bucket of money for some education project, or some bridge project.
If members were cut off from the pay-out....I suspect that they'd question their contribution and just start to delay it.
So after Merkel gave this message, and got some criticism.....the new Austrian Chancellor stood up. Sebastian Kurz. Young guy. Very direct.
He basically said all this Merkel 'chat' was fine and such....but until you secured the borders and stopped the migrant flow, no one felt the need to get happy about the 200,000 migrants that Merkel is trying to find a home for (out of Greece and Italy). And each month, that number of people waiting for an exodus grows.
Why any of this is hyped up now? Well....here's the problem going ahead. The EU election in the summer of 2019.
There's a fair amount of anxiety in both Greece and Italy about this large number of migrants in temporary centers created by the EU. These 200,000 people were supposed to have moved on by now. In these two countries, there might be a huge right-wing anti-migrant political election, and a fair number of the right-wing folks would arrive at the EU in the fall of 2019.
Adding to this mess....across all of Europe, there's more and more anxiety about the EU migrant theme pushed by Merkel. It too....will affect the EU election.
In a way, the EU system was supposed to be this 'charming' group of intellectual socialists who led the continent onto great and wonderful things. If one out of three members of the EU were right-wing and anti-migrant....well, it'd be a pretty big mess, and you'd start to worry about 2024 (the next EU election), and whether a majority of right-wing folks then existed.
So Merkel is working against a clock now. Adding to the mess....more and more migrants make their way to the smuggler route, and add to the 200,000. Kurz has a point in that a EU stance has to be eventually taken, and it'll be a confrontational moment against the Merkel theme.
The basic tone for the speech was.....a unity position that if you were a EU member....you would show a willing nature to accept migrants and immigrants, or lose funding from the EU.
It was a blunt message for Poland, Czech, and Hungary. To be honest, it was aimed at all other 27 members.
Laying down the new government coming in Germany (the coalition deal)....she proclaimed that they were going to be an all-out pro-EU team.
What happens if the EU did carry out this threat, and blocked funding going to member states? No one has said a lot over this, but I think you'd see the members affected just freeze sending money to the EU.
The way that this whole thing works....each nation has a marked card to send X-amount of money to the EU. They create their own tax base, based on how they feel the public will accept things. Once the EU gets the cash....it goes into a big bucket. The EU has two primary ways to spend through that money. The first is to spend it on themselves (pensions, office money, and salary for the members). The second way is 'gifts' back to each member state to show them the power of the EU.
Grants are generally given out to various cities, and everyone is hyped up to brag how the EU favored them and gave them a massive bucket of money for some education project, or some bridge project.
If members were cut off from the pay-out....I suspect that they'd question their contribution and just start to delay it.
So after Merkel gave this message, and got some criticism.....the new Austrian Chancellor stood up. Sebastian Kurz. Young guy. Very direct.
He basically said all this Merkel 'chat' was fine and such....but until you secured the borders and stopped the migrant flow, no one felt the need to get happy about the 200,000 migrants that Merkel is trying to find a home for (out of Greece and Italy). And each month, that number of people waiting for an exodus grows.
Why any of this is hyped up now? Well....here's the problem going ahead. The EU election in the summer of 2019.
There's a fair amount of anxiety in both Greece and Italy about this large number of migrants in temporary centers created by the EU. These 200,000 people were supposed to have moved on by now. In these two countries, there might be a huge right-wing anti-migrant political election, and a fair number of the right-wing folks would arrive at the EU in the fall of 2019.
Adding to this mess....across all of Europe, there's more and more anxiety about the EU migrant theme pushed by Merkel. It too....will affect the EU election.
In a way, the EU system was supposed to be this 'charming' group of intellectual socialists who led the continent onto great and wonderful things. If one out of three members of the EU were right-wing and anti-migrant....well, it'd be a pretty big mess, and you'd start to worry about 2024 (the next EU election), and whether a majority of right-wing folks then existed.
So Merkel is working against a clock now. Adding to the mess....more and more migrants make their way to the smuggler route, and add to the 200,000. Kurz has a point in that a EU stance has to be eventually taken, and it'll be a confrontational moment against the Merkel theme.
About German Mechanics
I sometimes write an essay to offer advice on German issues....so this is one of those. On this topic....it's simply a word or two of advice in handling German mechanics.
1. First, when you move in and get to know your neighbors or co-workers....one of the recommendations you want early on....is who they recommend for car repairs. In a small town, this matters. If someone has been using Huns, the local garage guy, for twenty years....it might be a pretty good recommendation.
2. Some folks gravitate over to older used cars....if you have a car that's less than eight years old...use the better replacement parts. Bosch makes good parts, and I recommend them. If the car is over fourteen years old.....don't worry much about what parts you end up with. The cheaper German parts will work good enough. Also, junk yards and junk-centers are a big deal in Germany. If you need a replacement steering column or a new door....you might want to ask about the local junk-center and if they can offer a cheap replacement situation.
3. Some private German mechanics will offer a drive-around car if your car was going to be in the shop for two or three days. Most will have some kind of cheap fee associated with it....maybe 10-Euro....maybe 20-Euro. My advice is to pay the charge....it'll end up being a decent car that the mechanic keeps in good condition and a better deal than a rental agency.
4. If your car is totally screwed up, and the German mechanic calls at the end of the day to say he needs to order parts....he'll have them by the morning of the second day. The problem is that it might go into the third day before he can get around to the issue. Be prepared for a problem like that. Older cars mean longer periods of mechanical repairs. You pay for your cheaper strategy.
5. If you have a connection to the military facilities....you have access to VAT forms, with the tax-discount. When you negotiate with the mechanic....this VAT-discount matters. A 1500-Euro bill....could be trimmed by twenty percent. Also, if you hint that you'd pay in cash.....the mechanic might grin and offer a ten-percent discount on the bill very quickly (provided you aren't playing the VAT-discount game). But don't anticipate a warranty deal if he accepts this cash under the table.
6. Yes, there are great reasons to go over to the big dealer for your repairs, if you have warranty tied to the vehicle. If you don't have warranty, and this is a simple repair....you don't want to pay 300-Euro for a 160-Euro repair that your local mechanic could handle easily. All of the Mercedes, Audi, Volkswagen, and BMW dealers will charge a minimum of twenty percent more on mechanical repairs. Anticipate that. Most local mechanics have the computer system and readily diagnose problems in five minutes.
7. If you are intending to drive from Germany to Spain for a vacation, or to Italy for a beach trip.....you might want to drop your car off with the local mechanic two weeks ahead of the trip and have them do a 10-minute glance at important things like oil leakage or brakes. You don't want to be in Spain and be told of a 1k Euro brake-job being required.
8. You buy tires from a German tire-center....not your local German mechanic. I realize that your local German mechanic will often come up and do this special deal with your standard yearly oil change/tune-up. Four new tires for 250-Euro....no changing fee....free balancing....etc. It sounds good....especially when he says he can make this happen with a ten-percent discount if you pay in cash. These are usually no-name brands and you might be lucky if you get a full year of use out of the tire. Always buy tires from an actual tire-center, and don't go cheap. When you are driving 180 kph.....you don't want to sit and worry about a blow-up with a cheap tire.
9. German mechanics can be brutally honest. If you have some cheap car that you simply hoped would last two years and has failed six months into your goal....your mechanic might stand there and tell you the repair will cost as much as the car has value (your original purchase price). Then he suggest in a direct way....it's time to part with the car (to the car-dump). I often recommend against the ultra-method of cars, and this cheap-strategy. But if the mechanic suggests that this a harsh and high-cost repair....don't be attached to the vehicle.
10. If you find a good German mechanic, who you trust....stick with them.
1. First, when you move in and get to know your neighbors or co-workers....one of the recommendations you want early on....is who they recommend for car repairs. In a small town, this matters. If someone has been using Huns, the local garage guy, for twenty years....it might be a pretty good recommendation.
2. Some folks gravitate over to older used cars....if you have a car that's less than eight years old...use the better replacement parts. Bosch makes good parts, and I recommend them. If the car is over fourteen years old.....don't worry much about what parts you end up with. The cheaper German parts will work good enough. Also, junk yards and junk-centers are a big deal in Germany. If you need a replacement steering column or a new door....you might want to ask about the local junk-center and if they can offer a cheap replacement situation.
3. Some private German mechanics will offer a drive-around car if your car was going to be in the shop for two or three days. Most will have some kind of cheap fee associated with it....maybe 10-Euro....maybe 20-Euro. My advice is to pay the charge....it'll end up being a decent car that the mechanic keeps in good condition and a better deal than a rental agency.
4. If your car is totally screwed up, and the German mechanic calls at the end of the day to say he needs to order parts....he'll have them by the morning of the second day. The problem is that it might go into the third day before he can get around to the issue. Be prepared for a problem like that. Older cars mean longer periods of mechanical repairs. You pay for your cheaper strategy.
5. If you have a connection to the military facilities....you have access to VAT forms, with the tax-discount. When you negotiate with the mechanic....this VAT-discount matters. A 1500-Euro bill....could be trimmed by twenty percent. Also, if you hint that you'd pay in cash.....the mechanic might grin and offer a ten-percent discount on the bill very quickly (provided you aren't playing the VAT-discount game). But don't anticipate a warranty deal if he accepts this cash under the table.
6. Yes, there are great reasons to go over to the big dealer for your repairs, if you have warranty tied to the vehicle. If you don't have warranty, and this is a simple repair....you don't want to pay 300-Euro for a 160-Euro repair that your local mechanic could handle easily. All of the Mercedes, Audi, Volkswagen, and BMW dealers will charge a minimum of twenty percent more on mechanical repairs. Anticipate that. Most local mechanics have the computer system and readily diagnose problems in five minutes.
7. If you are intending to drive from Germany to Spain for a vacation, or to Italy for a beach trip.....you might want to drop your car off with the local mechanic two weeks ahead of the trip and have them do a 10-minute glance at important things like oil leakage or brakes. You don't want to be in Spain and be told of a 1k Euro brake-job being required.
8. You buy tires from a German tire-center....not your local German mechanic. I realize that your local German mechanic will often come up and do this special deal with your standard yearly oil change/tune-up. Four new tires for 250-Euro....no changing fee....free balancing....etc. It sounds good....especially when he says he can make this happen with a ten-percent discount if you pay in cash. These are usually no-name brands and you might be lucky if you get a full year of use out of the tire. Always buy tires from an actual tire-center, and don't go cheap. When you are driving 180 kph.....you don't want to sit and worry about a blow-up with a cheap tire.
9. German mechanics can be brutally honest. If you have some cheap car that you simply hoped would last two years and has failed six months into your goal....your mechanic might stand there and tell you the repair will cost as much as the car has value (your original purchase price). Then he suggest in a direct way....it's time to part with the car (to the car-dump). I often recommend against the ultra-method of cars, and this cheap-strategy. But if the mechanic suggests that this a harsh and high-cost repair....don't be attached to the vehicle.
10. If you find a good German mechanic, who you trust....stick with them.
Germans and Crisis Actors
Late yesterday, via ARD (public TV in Germany, Channel One), they came to introduce 'crisis actors' to the German public. First time ever, as far as I know....where the American-trend-topic has been openly discussed.
Reason? Well...this shooting episode in Florida. One of the survivor-kids had been in another public video months prior, and there's some belief that he does crisis acting on the side. Neither groups, the defenders and the critical folks, have openly proven much of anything on this one single episode. If they find a second episode that he's been in front of the camera, then I might be more critical myself.
So they put the story under Faktfinder....a compartment of ARD where it's supposed to hinder or prevent fake news. Once ARD says this total-absolute fact-based piece on Faktfinder.....that's the end of potentially fakeness. Well, that's what ARD tends to suggest.
The basic ARD story? They lay out the kid, the story, and the accusation. No, they say he's simply not a crisis actor.
So, you go onto the next page....the comments page. One of the first comments that comes up.....a German asks the correct question, how is it that crisis actors exist? Were there 'ever' crisis actors? That's something that ARD will probably skip because it does present several issues when you admit they've been used by US networks, and they might have 'accidentally' (best word to use with a German) appeared on ARD or ZDF telecasts where they used a US feed for their news coverage. Neither of the networks would like to admit that such a thing exist and they might have used them.
As you page down through the private comments, you notice this other commentary.....that maybe Faktfinder is fake as well?
German use of crisis actors? I doubt it. There might be cases where you have some foundation or lobby group guy appear often to discuss topic 'X', but they are an expert on the subject. But for an 'on-the-scene' type interview? You rarely if ever see this with regular people. German journalists tend to view other journalists. Some might laugh about that strategy but you rarely see a private citizen at some German bridge collapse, and being interviewed by the ARD or ZDF reporter.
So this brings me back around to the US trend....crisis acting. It's occurred in the past, and various networks have done it. When they've been caught....the networks tend to be highly embarrassed and can't believe that this occurred. All of this leads onto skeptical views of journalism by Americans....something that a German simply can't believe.
Reason? Well...this shooting episode in Florida. One of the survivor-kids had been in another public video months prior, and there's some belief that he does crisis acting on the side. Neither groups, the defenders and the critical folks, have openly proven much of anything on this one single episode. If they find a second episode that he's been in front of the camera, then I might be more critical myself.
So they put the story under Faktfinder....a compartment of ARD where it's supposed to hinder or prevent fake news. Once ARD says this total-absolute fact-based piece on Faktfinder.....that's the end of potentially fakeness. Well, that's what ARD tends to suggest.
The basic ARD story? They lay out the kid, the story, and the accusation. No, they say he's simply not a crisis actor.
So, you go onto the next page....the comments page. One of the first comments that comes up.....a German asks the correct question, how is it that crisis actors exist? Were there 'ever' crisis actors? That's something that ARD will probably skip because it does present several issues when you admit they've been used by US networks, and they might have 'accidentally' (best word to use with a German) appeared on ARD or ZDF telecasts where they used a US feed for their news coverage. Neither of the networks would like to admit that such a thing exist and they might have used them.
As you page down through the private comments, you notice this other commentary.....that maybe Faktfinder is fake as well?
German use of crisis actors? I doubt it. There might be cases where you have some foundation or lobby group guy appear often to discuss topic 'X', but they are an expert on the subject. But for an 'on-the-scene' type interview? You rarely if ever see this with regular people. German journalists tend to view other journalists. Some might laugh about that strategy but you rarely see a private citizen at some German bridge collapse, and being interviewed by the ARD or ZDF reporter.
So this brings me back around to the US trend....crisis acting. It's occurred in the past, and various networks have done it. When they've been caught....the networks tend to be highly embarrassed and can't believe that this occurred. All of this leads onto skeptical views of journalism by Americans....something that a German simply can't believe.
Thursday, February 22, 2018
The Diesel Mess, Continued
Most Germans were expecting a German Supreme Court decision today....on the diesel car business.
Basically, at around 3:30 PM....the court in Leipzig said they wanted another week (to 27 Feb) to decide on this issue.
The confrontation? Based on particles in the air in two major urban cities (Stuttgart and Dusseldorf)....the two want to ban diesel cars from entering. The case has risen to the highest level of Germany and threatens massive chaos either way.
What happened today? Well....they sat and asked questions over European law, the Federal Immission Control Act, German highway regulation, how the ban would be carried and whether cities can have individual driving rules that relate ONLY to themselves and not other cities.
I've spent a fair amount of time looking at this whole German topic.
There are basically ten key features to the discussion:
1. Around two decades ago, the Germans hyped up the environmental chat at the EU that there needed to be EU standards about pollution. The EU, NOT Germany, made up some standards. For the past ten years, there's been data collected and it kept suggesting serious problems relating back to diesel cars. VW and the big makers of the diesel cars kept saying they were improving the engines and filtering system. Well....VW and the rest got caught....total fabrication, and the EU collection data is correct.
2. By EU rules, everyone in the EU is entitled to have clean air.
3. Germans tend to have more diesel cars than other EU countries (go figure that one out). The chief reason is that Germans tend to drive greater distances to reach their work-place, and the mileage made sense.
4. The cities (at least thirty of them and it grows virtually every month) say that they have the right to clean their air, and only by banning diesel cars...can you bring about clean air.
5. The diesel car owners believe that they bought their cars with the ability to have value, and not be limited from entering cities. Most believe if the cars are banned....they ought to be given full value for the car by the German government, because it can't be used.
6. If the ban occurs, how will diesel car owners be able to drive to work? Generally, you hear a long silence at that point because most of the cities involved (Dusseldorf and Stuttgart) will utter the phrase of having public transportation but can't explain how tens of thousands would be thrown into the passenger system overnight.
7. The cops say they won't enforce a ban. This may be true, but the cities have 'meter-maids' and parking monitors who wander around and could probably attach 50-Euro tickets onto each car.
8. Then, you come to the Berlin leadership. Basically....it is non-existent. No one can explain why they say little to nothing. You would think that they'd be working up a solution, and they seem to be in absolute fear about where this is going.
9. Why a German court is standing over an EU-regulation? That's something that no one can explain either. All of this should have gone onto the EU court in the first place.
10. Finally, this odd factor. If you admit in the EU-court that these two cities can ban cars....could not every single city in the EU ban cars, for any reason? Well.....yeah. And that invites a long EU-type discussion which would typically infuriate most British folks and say it's one of a thousand reasons for BREXIT. Adding to this....could a city say that all cars are banned and that only horse carriages and bikes are acceptable? Well....yeah. Not to be too cynical but this really opens up a big mess in the end.
Basically, at around 3:30 PM....the court in Leipzig said they wanted another week (to 27 Feb) to decide on this issue.
The confrontation? Based on particles in the air in two major urban cities (Stuttgart and Dusseldorf)....the two want to ban diesel cars from entering. The case has risen to the highest level of Germany and threatens massive chaos either way.
What happened today? Well....they sat and asked questions over European law, the Federal Immission Control Act, German highway regulation, how the ban would be carried and whether cities can have individual driving rules that relate ONLY to themselves and not other cities.
I've spent a fair amount of time looking at this whole German topic.
There are basically ten key features to the discussion:
1. Around two decades ago, the Germans hyped up the environmental chat at the EU that there needed to be EU standards about pollution. The EU, NOT Germany, made up some standards. For the past ten years, there's been data collected and it kept suggesting serious problems relating back to diesel cars. VW and the big makers of the diesel cars kept saying they were improving the engines and filtering system. Well....VW and the rest got caught....total fabrication, and the EU collection data is correct.
2. By EU rules, everyone in the EU is entitled to have clean air.
3. Germans tend to have more diesel cars than other EU countries (go figure that one out). The chief reason is that Germans tend to drive greater distances to reach their work-place, and the mileage made sense.
4. The cities (at least thirty of them and it grows virtually every month) say that they have the right to clean their air, and only by banning diesel cars...can you bring about clean air.
5. The diesel car owners believe that they bought their cars with the ability to have value, and not be limited from entering cities. Most believe if the cars are banned....they ought to be given full value for the car by the German government, because it can't be used.
6. If the ban occurs, how will diesel car owners be able to drive to work? Generally, you hear a long silence at that point because most of the cities involved (Dusseldorf and Stuttgart) will utter the phrase of having public transportation but can't explain how tens of thousands would be thrown into the passenger system overnight.
7. The cops say they won't enforce a ban. This may be true, but the cities have 'meter-maids' and parking monitors who wander around and could probably attach 50-Euro tickets onto each car.
8. Then, you come to the Berlin leadership. Basically....it is non-existent. No one can explain why they say little to nothing. You would think that they'd be working up a solution, and they seem to be in absolute fear about where this is going.
9. Why a German court is standing over an EU-regulation? That's something that no one can explain either. All of this should have gone onto the EU court in the first place.
10. Finally, this odd factor. If you admit in the EU-court that these two cities can ban cars....could not every single city in the EU ban cars, for any reason? Well.....yeah. And that invites a long EU-type discussion which would typically infuriate most British folks and say it's one of a thousand reasons for BREXIT. Adding to this....could a city say that all cars are banned and that only horse carriages and bikes are acceptable? Well....yeah. Not to be too cynical but this really opens up a big mess in the end.
The Money-Laundering Story
This is a little 'dirty' affair, which is likely now to drag itself out in public, and involve the court system. It also exposes the corruption within the German society, and the government.
ARD (public German TV, Channel One) tells most of the story.
Five years ago....the state of Bavaria bundled up 32,000 public-owned/Bavaria-state owned apartments, and sold them to an investor group. The amount of money at the center of this....comes to roughly 2.5 billion Euro....a fair sum of money.
It was Bavarian state property....not private residences.
At the time, some questions were asked about the logic of this.....why it needed to be operated by a private group, instead of the state operation. But that was not the end of the questions. The method of payment led to speculation of money-laundering.
So there is now an investigation that ARD is confirming, and centering upon this group who bought the 32,000 apartments.
Why any of this matters now? Well...the guy who signed off on the deal in 2013 was Markus Soder....the new Premier President of Bavaria, who was the finance chief back in 2013.
Yeah, if money-laundering is proven....did Soder know about this? If he did....it'll be a big issue.
At the heart of this....27 private investors who came together to acquire the holding company and laid out the money. Russian money-laundering? Well....that's the accusation. It's suggested that money moved quietly out of Russia, without state knowledge....into Germany....paying the 2.5 billion Euro.
It's the kind of case that will drag out slowly and likely be at least a year....maybe even two years....before charges occur. Maybe the Russian government will come up front and say no....they knew all about the money going into Bavaria, and there is no money-laundering. Whole lot of speculation....but limited facts. For Markus Soder, he could be totally innocent, and this was a honest property deal.
ARD (public German TV, Channel One) tells most of the story.
Five years ago....the state of Bavaria bundled up 32,000 public-owned/Bavaria-state owned apartments, and sold them to an investor group. The amount of money at the center of this....comes to roughly 2.5 billion Euro....a fair sum of money.
It was Bavarian state property....not private residences.
At the time, some questions were asked about the logic of this.....why it needed to be operated by a private group, instead of the state operation. But that was not the end of the questions. The method of payment led to speculation of money-laundering.
So there is now an investigation that ARD is confirming, and centering upon this group who bought the 32,000 apartments.
Why any of this matters now? Well...the guy who signed off on the deal in 2013 was Markus Soder....the new Premier President of Bavaria, who was the finance chief back in 2013.
Yeah, if money-laundering is proven....did Soder know about this? If he did....it'll be a big issue.
At the heart of this....27 private investors who came together to acquire the holding company and laid out the money. Russian money-laundering? Well....that's the accusation. It's suggested that money moved quietly out of Russia, without state knowledge....into Germany....paying the 2.5 billion Euro.
It's the kind of case that will drag out slowly and likely be at least a year....maybe even two years....before charges occur. Maybe the Russian government will come up front and say no....they knew all about the money going into Bavaria, and there is no money-laundering. Whole lot of speculation....but limited facts. For Markus Soder, he could be totally innocent, and this was a honest property deal.
Wednesday, February 21, 2018
The Problem About Facts
ARD (public German TV, Channel One) ran a rather long article piece this morning over 'facts' that it'd gathered in the fight against social networking by the evil right-wing and how their 'trolls' manipulate elections.
It is a very thoughtful piece....I will agree. The only problem is that it goes on and on, about the evil right-wing, and never for a moment suggests that the evil left-wing could also have 'trolls', and that they also might be attempting to manipulate elections.
Toward the end of the piece, there's a commentary area. So I went looking at what Germans discussed about the article.
I would suggest that about sixty-percent were critical of the article, and the suggestion that you only need to worry about right-wing behavior or 'trolls' was laughed at.
Where all of this public TV news criticism is going? Well, in the past week....public polls suggest that the AfD (the anti-immigration party) has arrived at 16-percent of the national trend. In fact, if you use state by state polling....there's around five German states which now list the AfD having more support than the SPD (left of center party). I think the TV news crowd have a mandated yet rarely discussed job of trying to control this growth.
The 'Fact' page which now exists on the ARD web site....hypes a lot of propaganda facts. In some ways, the journalists hope to control this whole mass media trend. One problem I see is that most of the 15-year-old to 25-year-old crowd....simply don't view public TV anymore, and are fairly skeptical of the journalists. If you go to the over-sixty crowd....few get into this fact-network or fact-creation. So it's a very small number of the public which access this and get into this discussion.
All of this brings me to this observation. Germans are arriving at conclusions, and now beginning to question facts, fake news, real fake news, propaganda by all sides, and reaching a stage where trust of normal politics doesn't look great.
It is a very thoughtful piece....I will agree. The only problem is that it goes on and on, about the evil right-wing, and never for a moment suggests that the evil left-wing could also have 'trolls', and that they also might be attempting to manipulate elections.
Toward the end of the piece, there's a commentary area. So I went looking at what Germans discussed about the article.
I would suggest that about sixty-percent were critical of the article, and the suggestion that you only need to worry about right-wing behavior or 'trolls' was laughed at.
Where all of this public TV news criticism is going? Well, in the past week....public polls suggest that the AfD (the anti-immigration party) has arrived at 16-percent of the national trend. In fact, if you use state by state polling....there's around five German states which now list the AfD having more support than the SPD (left of center party). I think the TV news crowd have a mandated yet rarely discussed job of trying to control this growth.
The 'Fact' page which now exists on the ARD web site....hypes a lot of propaganda facts. In some ways, the journalists hope to control this whole mass media trend. One problem I see is that most of the 15-year-old to 25-year-old crowd....simply don't view public TV anymore, and are fairly skeptical of the journalists. If you go to the over-sixty crowd....few get into this fact-network or fact-creation. So it's a very small number of the public which access this and get into this discussion.
All of this brings me to this observation. Germans are arriving at conclusions, and now beginning to question facts, fake news, real fake news, propaganda by all sides, and reaching a stage where trust of normal politics doesn't look great.
Military News From Last Night
One of the major topics off the German news last night was the dismal condition of the German Army (lack of tents, cold weather gear, spare parts, etc). The public TV crowd (both ARD and ZDF) spent a fair amount of time on this topic.
They brought out experts to explain how the events unfolded. Then they brought out the political folks to talk over the woes. Blame got settled upon. I would refer to the story told as a good one-step 'dance'.
Most of the political folks talking? They were the ones opposing more money over the past decade to be spent on the German military. They were the ones hyped up on Trump talk of the two-percent goal for NATO countries to spend on their military. Oddly, that 2-percent deal wasn't brought up much last night.
What you generally have right now? The German Army has shrunk down to around 60,000 personnel. That's it. For 82-million....60,000 young men and women.
If someone came up to suggest some war-event might occur....giving them sixty days to purchase spare parts and extra equipment....they might be able to deploy. Beyond that? No, this is mostly just a staging force which play-acts itself to pretend it's capable when it's not.
It's hard to say how Germans watching this theater-like act occur on TV last night will act. Most will all remember the comments over the decade by the Green Party, and the Linke Party....to discourage money being spent. Whether this is a public negative topic or not....I'd suggest it won't make the top ten topics and that the public will just accept this as part of the new German reality.
They brought out experts to explain how the events unfolded. Then they brought out the political folks to talk over the woes. Blame got settled upon. I would refer to the story told as a good one-step 'dance'.
Most of the political folks talking? They were the ones opposing more money over the past decade to be spent on the German military. They were the ones hyped up on Trump talk of the two-percent goal for NATO countries to spend on their military. Oddly, that 2-percent deal wasn't brought up much last night.
What you generally have right now? The German Army has shrunk down to around 60,000 personnel. That's it. For 82-million....60,000 young men and women.
If someone came up to suggest some war-event might occur....giving them sixty days to purchase spare parts and extra equipment....they might be able to deploy. Beyond that? No, this is mostly just a staging force which play-acts itself to pretend it's capable when it's not.
It's hard to say how Germans watching this theater-like act occur on TV last night will act. Most will all remember the comments over the decade by the Green Party, and the Linke Party....to discourage money being spent. Whether this is a public negative topic or not....I'd suggest it won't make the top ten topics and that the public will just accept this as part of the new German reality.
Tuesday, February 20, 2018
Update on Kandel Murder
I essayed back two months ago about the murder of the young German girl in Kandel by the the Afghan kid who claimed he was near 15 years old.
The court assigned a medical team to assess his 'real' age, and they came to the conclusion today of roughly 17.5 years old to 20 years old.
Because of this age thing....the prosecutor will continue on, and likely prosecute the case with the kid as a juvenile.
Locals buying into this? It's hard to say.
The exam is based on science, with x-rays of hands, teeth and collarbones as part of the deal.
Making an effort to go back to his village and actually talk with locals who might remember him? So far....nothing. This is the surprising part about this case. You'd think that some German police effort would involve going to the region and talking to locals if they remember him or his age.
The court assigned a medical team to assess his 'real' age, and they came to the conclusion today of roughly 17.5 years old to 20 years old.
Because of this age thing....the prosecutor will continue on, and likely prosecute the case with the kid as a juvenile.
Locals buying into this? It's hard to say.
The exam is based on science, with x-rays of hands, teeth and collarbones as part of the deal.
Making an effort to go back to his village and actually talk with locals who might remember him? So far....nothing. This is the surprising part about this case. You'd think that some German police effort would involve going to the region and talking to locals if they remember him or his age.
You Should Only Vote Yes
On the SPD vote paperwork mailed yesterday....folks were receiving their coalition voting paperwork, and they have to decide to vote FOR or AGAINST the coalition deal with Merkel and the CDU folks.
Well...as you open the package, it's been noted that there are basically two thing there.
The first is the vote card.
The second is a two-page pro-coaltion information packet.
No critical information is enclosed. As far as the party is concerned....you need to focus on voting FOR the coalition deal.
Anger? Well....if you follow the news platforms, a number of SPD folks are fairly 'hot' about the lack of critical information. On a list of a dozen negative factors coming up in the past month....this is simply another big screw-up.
Could this little episode throw another 10,000 voters toward the no vote? I'm not sure. So far, no one is collecting data to project the yes/no thing, which I find odd. You would think that they'd project this to be a 60-40 deal. I'm thinking it's going to be fairly close to 50-50.
Well...as you open the package, it's been noted that there are basically two thing there.
The first is the vote card.
The second is a two-page pro-coaltion information packet.
No critical information is enclosed. As far as the party is concerned....you need to focus on voting FOR the coalition deal.
Anger? Well....if you follow the news platforms, a number of SPD folks are fairly 'hot' about the lack of critical information. On a list of a dozen negative factors coming up in the past month....this is simply another big screw-up.
Could this little episode throw another 10,000 voters toward the no vote? I'm not sure. So far, no one is collecting data to project the yes/no thing, which I find odd. You would think that they'd project this to be a 60-40 deal. I'm thinking it's going to be fairly close to 50-50.
Germans and Protocol
Around fifteen years ago, in my old office (Air Force, and here in Germany), I had a guy stop by and start a conversation. He'd been in Germany four years...assimilated a lot of culture and 'German' rules, and felt a need to unload....mostly on the idea of protocol.
In his mind, there were at least 15,000 standards or rules that he had collect and remember. Course, we being military folks....were used to the idea of protocol. But to him...this whole thing was going to an extreme. He pulled a folder and had around fifteen traffic or speeding tickets. Since arriving four years prior....he and his wife had collected a fair sum. Some were parking tickets (the lack of a wheel displayed), and several were speeding tickets. He'd contributed well over a thousand dollars of fines in local currency by that point.
The plain truth is that most Germans would stand and admit that they live by absolute protocols and yes, there are probably 25,000 things which must be adhered to....to survive in Germany.
Yesterday, it came up in the news and I sat there analyzing it for a while.
Up in north Germany....some older woman....retiree-type, was traveling via regional train. She'd been shopping and returning to her home-village.
About a minute away from arrival....the ticket-audit folks arrived in the cabin. "Tickets, please."
The old gal didn't want to miss her get-off-point, and basically stood there to ask that they exit the train as it pulled in....and she'd happily show her ticket.
Off she stepped, with the two guys.
Well....the door closed and they proceeded to whip out the fine paperwork for 60 Euro and failure to pay. She shows them the ticket, but as they say.....when they enter the cabin, you MUST show the ticket. The protocol says that if they exit the train, you have no choice but to pay the fine.
She argued a while but obviously, they didn't switch their thinking. Angry? Yes. Her alternate position was to stand there and fumble through to find the ticket, while the door closed and the train left....taking her the next village, and some drama on how to return back to the right point.
It's protocol.
Germans are that way.
If you were looking for a plan "B" society....this isn't it.. Maybe the Russians or the Brits are better suited for getting around the rules or protocol, but for Germans, it's simply a way of life. This is why the drink deposit gimmick works here....or why recycling functions so well....or why customs guy at the airport is so through about the items you bring in.
In his mind, there were at least 15,000 standards or rules that he had collect and remember. Course, we being military folks....were used to the idea of protocol. But to him...this whole thing was going to an extreme. He pulled a folder and had around fifteen traffic or speeding tickets. Since arriving four years prior....he and his wife had collected a fair sum. Some were parking tickets (the lack of a wheel displayed), and several were speeding tickets. He'd contributed well over a thousand dollars of fines in local currency by that point.
The plain truth is that most Germans would stand and admit that they live by absolute protocols and yes, there are probably 25,000 things which must be adhered to....to survive in Germany.
Yesterday, it came up in the news and I sat there analyzing it for a while.
Up in north Germany....some older woman....retiree-type, was traveling via regional train. She'd been shopping and returning to her home-village.
About a minute away from arrival....the ticket-audit folks arrived in the cabin. "Tickets, please."
The old gal didn't want to miss her get-off-point, and basically stood there to ask that they exit the train as it pulled in....and she'd happily show her ticket.
Off she stepped, with the two guys.
Well....the door closed and they proceeded to whip out the fine paperwork for 60 Euro and failure to pay. She shows them the ticket, but as they say.....when they enter the cabin, you MUST show the ticket. The protocol says that if they exit the train, you have no choice but to pay the fine.
She argued a while but obviously, they didn't switch their thinking. Angry? Yes. Her alternate position was to stand there and fumble through to find the ticket, while the door closed and the train left....taking her the next village, and some drama on how to return back to the right point.
It's protocol.
Germans are that way.
If you were looking for a plan "B" society....this isn't it.. Maybe the Russians or the Brits are better suited for getting around the rules or protocol, but for Germans, it's simply a way of life. This is why the drink deposit gimmick works here....or why recycling functions so well....or why customs guy at the airport is so through about the items you bring in.
Lina's 'Bark'
The basic story?
Well....yesterday, the mail-votes went out for the SPD members to vote on the coalition deal with Merkel's CDU Party. 460,000 people will get their 'vote' and decide yes or no.
Well....459,999 people will get it. Plus one dog....Lina, age 3, a beagle.....will also get an application. You see....months ago, the owner of Lina registered her with the party.
So the question will come....how many other dogs are registered, and is this some type of fraud?
Are dogs are likely to vote for the coalition or against the coalition?
I'm guessing the leadership of the SPD are fuming a bit and want a full accounting of who allowed the dog into the party.
For those non-SPD folks.....it's a good laugh, and simply says a bit about how bad the political game has become in Germany.
The Winter Gear Story
Over the past week, there's been several mentions in the German news over the Germany military (the Bundeswehr) lacking cold weather gear and tents....in fact, there are various items which the logistical folks admit.....just aren't there and if the crew were ordered to deploy, it'd be a mess.
If you got back to 1940, and examine the core weakness of the German military in WW II....it fell into the same category. Great plans...poor logistical preparation.
If there ever was some minor conflict to drag NATO into some stand-up of forces, it's mostly all dependent upon the US to deliver. If you told the Germans that some conflict would start in twelve months, then they'd go and spend the money....otherwise, no....they will spend the money on bridges, roads, and infrastructure.
Are the German troops amused by this? Well...if you don't have enough cold weather gear.....you won't be sending that many troops out into winter weather for exercises, and most folks would be happy about that. So maybe out of a four-year period....you only have to participate in one single winter exercise. Some folks would be happy about that.
Added to this discussion is the fact that when you establish a requirement....like a particular type of web belt....well, the Germans have a rule that says the belt really ought to be made within Germany, or at least the EU. So they don't import Chinese-made gear. Cost factor? Well....you tend to pay more for German-made equipment.
The comical thing about this is that when Merkel goes into some meeting with Trump....you can predict that he's going to bring up the two-percent deal, and eyeball this shortage of gear as a problem of commitment. None of this discussion helps bridge this issue.
Hopefully, if there ever is some east-west conflict....it'll start in the spring and end by October.
If you got back to 1940, and examine the core weakness of the German military in WW II....it fell into the same category. Great plans...poor logistical preparation.
If there ever was some minor conflict to drag NATO into some stand-up of forces, it's mostly all dependent upon the US to deliver. If you told the Germans that some conflict would start in twelve months, then they'd go and spend the money....otherwise, no....they will spend the money on bridges, roads, and infrastructure.
Are the German troops amused by this? Well...if you don't have enough cold weather gear.....you won't be sending that many troops out into winter weather for exercises, and most folks would be happy about that. So maybe out of a four-year period....you only have to participate in one single winter exercise. Some folks would be happy about that.
Added to this discussion is the fact that when you establish a requirement....like a particular type of web belt....well, the Germans have a rule that says the belt really ought to be made within Germany, or at least the EU. So they don't import Chinese-made gear. Cost factor? Well....you tend to pay more for German-made equipment.
The comical thing about this is that when Merkel goes into some meeting with Trump....you can predict that he's going to bring up the two-percent deal, and eyeball this shortage of gear as a problem of commitment. None of this discussion helps bridge this issue.
Hopefully, if there ever is some east-west conflict....it'll start in the spring and end by October.
Sunday, February 18, 2018
Losing a License
Focus (the German news magazine) brought up this topic today.....how to lose your drivers license.
Back in 1978, I had a seminar upon arriving in Germany, and got roughly four hours of introduction to various issues. Roughly two minutes were spent on this....letting us know that Germans were fully willing and capable of suspending your license. This was not to be taken lightly.
To be honest over the years....I only know of three Americans I worked with....who lost their license for a while. Two were points accumulating up (mostly speeding), and the third was for alcohol issues.
Getting a one-month driving ban is becoming more popular now. Some will argue that losing it for three months is also moving up.
Driving 30 kph over the limit in urban areas? That's a one month loss. Driving 70 kph over? That's three months for the loss.
Driving too close to the guy in front of you? That could be a one-month loss.
Red light violations? That could be a one-month loss.
Having an accident and being at fault, with people injured? That could be a minimum of one month.
Calling someone, or texting? That could be a one-month loss.
They don't kid around about this business and judges aren't likely to be sympathetic.
Back in 1978, I had a seminar upon arriving in Germany, and got roughly four hours of introduction to various issues. Roughly two minutes were spent on this....letting us know that Germans were fully willing and capable of suspending your license. This was not to be taken lightly.
To be honest over the years....I only know of three Americans I worked with....who lost their license for a while. Two were points accumulating up (mostly speeding), and the third was for alcohol issues.
Getting a one-month driving ban is becoming more popular now. Some will argue that losing it for three months is also moving up.
Driving 30 kph over the limit in urban areas? That's a one month loss. Driving 70 kph over? That's three months for the loss.
Driving too close to the guy in front of you? That could be a one-month loss.
Red light violations? That could be a one-month loss.
Having an accident and being at fault, with people injured? That could be a minimum of one month.
Calling someone, or texting? That could be a one-month loss.
They don't kid around about this business and judges aren't likely to be sympathetic.
Zivilcourage?
In the past year or two....at least here in my region (Wiesbaden) and around a number of metropolitan areas, they've (the city leadership) have started up this seminar business called "Zivilcourage" (civil courage is the basic translation).
So what this goes along with is that some Germans are pretty direct and confrontational....about particular people.
Well....yeah....immigrants, migrants, refugees, etc.
Prior to 2013, you would often see these little events occur (public areas) where so-and-so German kid, or a group of punks, or a couple young males....would go and shout abusive comments, push people around, or do some stupid crap. German bystanders would mostly stand there and do.....well....little to nothing. The term....'didn't want to get involved' is pretty close to what you saw.
Back in the 1980s and 1990s....I had a chat with different Americans who were based here in Germany and this funny attitude about not wanting to get involved. Americans are often stupid folks....you see something (even with some city cop), and we want to stand up for the little guy or the oppressed. Within these discussion groups from 30 years ago.....we would view the German stand-off view as something unique. Various reasons would be given....some folks would suggest that the fear-of-the-Nazis business fell into this discussion.
So these seminars held now? They are to suggest that you....a private individual could stand up and provide zivilcourage. You could use your voice and tell some punk kid or some idiot on the bus to step back a step or two.
Generally, the cops are the ones who lead these seminars and the first key thing they harp on....don't do nothing to get yourself injured or provoke the guy to do something even more stupid. Generally, they want you or your associate calling the cops real quick so they can get there, and take on the idiot themselves (German cops kinda demand respect in confrontations, if you haven't noticed).
Making a difference? I'm not quiet sure about this angle of the program.
Is this even a problem worth the seminar business? Back in 2013 and 2014, everyone was all hyped up and pro-migrant/pro-immigrant. At some point in 2014, and especially in 2015....I'd say that public attitude shifted. Germans, I think in the 95-percent range....won't go and insult migrants in public situations. That said....it wouldn't surprise me if some situation developed and two punk kids were to stand there and try insulting someone just for the thrill of it.
My view is that you merely have to put yourself in between the punks and the intended insult guy/gal, and give some type of 'Clint Eastwood-look'....like you'd toss them. Strong cold silence, and just the look....in most cases, would be enough zivilcourage to lessen the event.
So if you hear something about zivilcourage.....that's the basic idea....trying to give Germans some seminar that would bring them to do something typically non-German. If it sounds like what some Australian or Brit would do without hesitation....well, yeah, that's true.
So what this goes along with is that some Germans are pretty direct and confrontational....about particular people.
Well....yeah....immigrants, migrants, refugees, etc.
Prior to 2013, you would often see these little events occur (public areas) where so-and-so German kid, or a group of punks, or a couple young males....would go and shout abusive comments, push people around, or do some stupid crap. German bystanders would mostly stand there and do.....well....little to nothing. The term....'didn't want to get involved' is pretty close to what you saw.
Back in the 1980s and 1990s....I had a chat with different Americans who were based here in Germany and this funny attitude about not wanting to get involved. Americans are often stupid folks....you see something (even with some city cop), and we want to stand up for the little guy or the oppressed. Within these discussion groups from 30 years ago.....we would view the German stand-off view as something unique. Various reasons would be given....some folks would suggest that the fear-of-the-Nazis business fell into this discussion.
So these seminars held now? They are to suggest that you....a private individual could stand up and provide zivilcourage. You could use your voice and tell some punk kid or some idiot on the bus to step back a step or two.
Generally, the cops are the ones who lead these seminars and the first key thing they harp on....don't do nothing to get yourself injured or provoke the guy to do something even more stupid. Generally, they want you or your associate calling the cops real quick so they can get there, and take on the idiot themselves (German cops kinda demand respect in confrontations, if you haven't noticed).
Making a difference? I'm not quiet sure about this angle of the program.
Is this even a problem worth the seminar business? Back in 2013 and 2014, everyone was all hyped up and pro-migrant/pro-immigrant. At some point in 2014, and especially in 2015....I'd say that public attitude shifted. Germans, I think in the 95-percent range....won't go and insult migrants in public situations. That said....it wouldn't surprise me if some situation developed and two punk kids were to stand there and try insulting someone just for the thrill of it.
My view is that you merely have to put yourself in between the punks and the intended insult guy/gal, and give some type of 'Clint Eastwood-look'....like you'd toss them. Strong cold silence, and just the look....in most cases, would be enough zivilcourage to lessen the event.
So if you hear something about zivilcourage.....that's the basic idea....trying to give Germans some seminar that would bring them to do something typically non-German. If it sounds like what some Australian or Brit would do without hesitation....well, yeah, that's true.
Rest of the 'Linda' Story
A couple of months ago, I essayed about this German teenager....16 years old...."Linda"....who ran off to the ISIS war in Iraq.
It's a woeful tale of a German girl (no Muslims in the family) and she got real stupid....believing some BS, and got down to Turkey....then crossed the border and in short order...got married to some ISIS warrior guy.
The guy eventually gets killed, and she was captured about eight months ago. There's been some effort interview her, and there was talk about an Iraq case against her.
Well....today, the Focus folks updated the story. A court episode occurred, and they decided that she violated enough laws to get six years in an Iraq prison.
Most of the six year deal is about membership in the ISIS 'club'. One year was tossed onto the deal for crossing the border illegally. The Iraqis were nice about part of this deal....having this done in a juvenile court, rather than an adult court.
Part of the problem right now is that the Germans don't have any kind of extradition treaty where they could bargain on her case and get her released to some German prison (probably what she'd prefer). You would think that they'd be working on such a treaty and it shouldn't take more than a month to work out the words and agreeable terms.
My thoughts on her dire mess? Most teens never grasp the consequences in life...if you do something really stupid. Running off to a circus, or driving dad's car into a ditch, or breaking a window in the school.....all have consequences. In this case, she felt the ISIS 'club' was something worth participating in. I would agree....getting the German system to accept her back and letting spend the time in some half-way youth program would be more productive. She'd also be a great asset to have front of kids to talk about stupid behavior and joining up with ISIS as being real stupid.
It's a woeful tale of a German girl (no Muslims in the family) and she got real stupid....believing some BS, and got down to Turkey....then crossed the border and in short order...got married to some ISIS warrior guy.
The guy eventually gets killed, and she was captured about eight months ago. There's been some effort interview her, and there was talk about an Iraq case against her.
Well....today, the Focus folks updated the story. A court episode occurred, and they decided that she violated enough laws to get six years in an Iraq prison.
Most of the six year deal is about membership in the ISIS 'club'. One year was tossed onto the deal for crossing the border illegally. The Iraqis were nice about part of this deal....having this done in a juvenile court, rather than an adult court.
Part of the problem right now is that the Germans don't have any kind of extradition treaty where they could bargain on her case and get her released to some German prison (probably what she'd prefer). You would think that they'd be working on such a treaty and it shouldn't take more than a month to work out the words and agreeable terms.
My thoughts on her dire mess? Most teens never grasp the consequences in life...if you do something really stupid. Running off to a circus, or driving dad's car into a ditch, or breaking a window in the school.....all have consequences. In this case, she felt the ISIS 'club' was something worth participating in. I would agree....getting the German system to accept her back and letting spend the time in some half-way youth program would be more productive. She'd also be a great asset to have front of kids to talk about stupid behavior and joining up with ISIS as being real stupid.
The Numbers Story
There was a short piece in Forcus News (the German news magazine) this morning which interested me.
There's a lot of hype by both the SPD Party and the Merkel-led CDU Party over how to reassure the public on safety and health conditions. So there's been this 'promise' discussed by both in this coalition document drafted....to hire on more judges, more cops, and more nurses/caregivers.
If you ask most Germans....they will say that this is a super positive trend and they support it. Then you come to some Germans who are skeptical that this will really happen. So Focus discussed the issues in hiring these folks.
The nurse and caregiver deal? What's written up is the round number of 8,000 new and extra folks. If you bring this up with professionals.....they say this is 10-percent of what you really need. They insist across all of Germany....you need 80,000 more caregivers (old-folks homes, hospitals, home-visits, etc).
If you did come to agree with the 80,000 number....then I'd ask where exactly are you going to recruit or find these people. I do agree that there are plenty of unemployed folks, but most don't have the background or training. You could establish some program and entice young people into this profession but they'd expect some real salary structure, and frankly....this hasn't been a job that really paid much. In a curious way, the Germans have tried to go out beyond the border (into Poland, Czech, Romania, Bulgaria, and even the Philippines) to find people for this occupation. I would speculate that you could easily find 40,000 young Filipino women who have the basic background and could be given a one-year German language course to help them.
My guess is that in four years...most Germans will note the hiring of the 8,000 extra nurses and that was simply step one, and another 8,000 now need to be hired.
On the cops? The talk is around 15,000 cops to be hired around the entire nation. That's fine says the police unions, but you have to realize that thousands of German police will retire in the next couple of years and finding the 'right' people...the qualified people....will be nearly impossible. Some German states on this mission to recruit....already find that qualified applicants are limited in number, and they've got a serious problem.
The judge vacancies? The country suggests that 2,000 more judges need to be hired. Current judges are mostly amused over this number. Most young lawyers don't have interest in this profession because it simply doesn't pay at the level they'd be willing to accept. The suggestion is that you will have to increase judge pay scales.
For show and effect, all of this political talk of hiring is great to calm folks. The reality is that they probably will do a marginal job at this and trigger frustration in four years as the public figures out the shortfalls.
There's a lot of hype by both the SPD Party and the Merkel-led CDU Party over how to reassure the public on safety and health conditions. So there's been this 'promise' discussed by both in this coalition document drafted....to hire on more judges, more cops, and more nurses/caregivers.
If you ask most Germans....they will say that this is a super positive trend and they support it. Then you come to some Germans who are skeptical that this will really happen. So Focus discussed the issues in hiring these folks.
The nurse and caregiver deal? What's written up is the round number of 8,000 new and extra folks. If you bring this up with professionals.....they say this is 10-percent of what you really need. They insist across all of Germany....you need 80,000 more caregivers (old-folks homes, hospitals, home-visits, etc).
If you did come to agree with the 80,000 number....then I'd ask where exactly are you going to recruit or find these people. I do agree that there are plenty of unemployed folks, but most don't have the background or training. You could establish some program and entice young people into this profession but they'd expect some real salary structure, and frankly....this hasn't been a job that really paid much. In a curious way, the Germans have tried to go out beyond the border (into Poland, Czech, Romania, Bulgaria, and even the Philippines) to find people for this occupation. I would speculate that you could easily find 40,000 young Filipino women who have the basic background and could be given a one-year German language course to help them.
My guess is that in four years...most Germans will note the hiring of the 8,000 extra nurses and that was simply step one, and another 8,000 now need to be hired.
On the cops? The talk is around 15,000 cops to be hired around the entire nation. That's fine says the police unions, but you have to realize that thousands of German police will retire in the next couple of years and finding the 'right' people...the qualified people....will be nearly impossible. Some German states on this mission to recruit....already find that qualified applicants are limited in number, and they've got a serious problem.
The judge vacancies? The country suggests that 2,000 more judges need to be hired. Current judges are mostly amused over this number. Most young lawyers don't have interest in this profession because it simply doesn't pay at the level they'd be willing to accept. The suggestion is that you will have to increase judge pay scales.
For show and effect, all of this political talk of hiring is great to calm folks. The reality is that they probably will do a marginal job at this and trigger frustration in four years as the public figures out the shortfalls.
Saturday, February 17, 2018
The Scotsman
A week ago....on a Saturday evening....this Scottish travel group had arrived in Hamburg.
What's said by various news groups is that this guy was going to have a bachelor party....led by his brother, and a number of associates.
No one says why the Scotsmen had to do this in Hamburg. You'd think that they go off to Dumfries, Glasgow, or Dundee. Maybe if they really wanted to go full-blast....they would have gone to Edinburgh.
So the group arrives for the weekend in Hamburg. The guy that the party was for? LiamColgan.
Somewhere along that Saturday night....Liam got separated from the group, and disappeared. The brother called the police. A search effort has taken place in Hamburg. Nothing much has been reported (now seven days).
Some video camera coverage from a street near the Reeperbahn noted the guy walking around....so it's speculated that he's alive.
What happen? I might take a guess that he stumbled at some point...knocked himself in the head and has a concussion. In the midst of this.....he just doesn't remember much. His cellphone? It was already running out of power on Saturday evening, so it's no help.
The gal he is supposed to marry? She's in Hamburg this weekend and part of the big search. I feel sorry for her because this is all pretty stupid.
My guess is that he'll turn up today....mostly because a couple hundred Hamburg folks are on the watch for him.
Friday, February 16, 2018
The German Fake News Problem
We are roughly three weeks away from the internal SPD Party vote-count on members (460,000) accepting the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition.
Curiously, (I've noted this a number of times)....there is one central element to the SPD Party (the youth 'squad'....the Juso-organization (SPD members between ages 18 and 25), who are mostly all against the coalition agreement.
There is some belief that the SPD vote with internal members....might not pass, and the coalition deal will fall apart.
The boss or chief of the Juso? Kevin Kuhnert.
Well....today, via BILD (the national newspaper of Germany)....someone came up with alleged emails from Kuhnert, with connect back to Russia.
This national tour which Kuhnert is on right now....talking AGAINST the SPD-CDU coalition deal....is sponsored in some way....says the Russian, by the Russians.
Jusos? They deny the whole story and say it's 'fake news'. Adding to this amusing news piece....the SPD computer geeks say that you (technically) can't get an email from jusos.de. Such an account is not legit.
Who says all this to BILD? Some Russian guy named "Yuri".
Fake? Well....here's the thing. Is BILD even capable of reaching some legit stage of confirming something like this? I would have my doubts. It's the same for ARD, ZDF, Focus, etc. They could reach some expert and ask a humble opinion but you'd have to go the BND or some German government agency....if they wanted the absolute word on this. This would require more than a few days to reach some conclusion.
So sitting in the kitchen, and sipping strong coffee is some German grandmother who is a SPD member and reading through the BILD description of the Yuri-story. Couldn Kevin Kuhnert be lying? Was Martin Schulz a secret KGB spy? Is Merkel a leftover relic from the DDR Stassi? Could the Red Army Faction behind part of this? Could Trump be messing with the German political system? Are there Nazis behind this whole coalition deal or trying to halt the coalition? Could Macron have a hand in the creation of this fake Yuri-guy? Do the Brits have some James Bond-like guy trying to pretend to be Yuri, and trigger the collapse of the German government because of BREXIT? Who can you trust, if you don't trust Mutti (Merkel) and BILD?
The thing about fake news, is that there is usually one single thread that is standing out and making this look awful fake. The fake that you can't get a single email from anyone at Jusos.....which has a end-address of Jusos.de.....would be that thread.
But at this stage of the game....people would linger and have doubt. Was Kevin hooked to the KGB or Putin, or maybe that even Stalin guy? That doubt would be enough for you to just not vote....either way. It's silly in a way, but it's now front-page news for the weekend.
Curiously, (I've noted this a number of times)....there is one central element to the SPD Party (the youth 'squad'....the Juso-organization (SPD members between ages 18 and 25), who are mostly all against the coalition agreement.
There is some belief that the SPD vote with internal members....might not pass, and the coalition deal will fall apart.
The boss or chief of the Juso? Kevin Kuhnert.
Well....today, via BILD (the national newspaper of Germany)....someone came up with alleged emails from Kuhnert, with connect back to Russia.
This national tour which Kuhnert is on right now....talking AGAINST the SPD-CDU coalition deal....is sponsored in some way....says the Russian, by the Russians.
Jusos? They deny the whole story and say it's 'fake news'. Adding to this amusing news piece....the SPD computer geeks say that you (technically) can't get an email from jusos.de. Such an account is not legit.
Who says all this to BILD? Some Russian guy named "Yuri".
Fake? Well....here's the thing. Is BILD even capable of reaching some legit stage of confirming something like this? I would have my doubts. It's the same for ARD, ZDF, Focus, etc. They could reach some expert and ask a humble opinion but you'd have to go the BND or some German government agency....if they wanted the absolute word on this. This would require more than a few days to reach some conclusion.
So sitting in the kitchen, and sipping strong coffee is some German grandmother who is a SPD member and reading through the BILD description of the Yuri-story. Couldn Kevin Kuhnert be lying? Was Martin Schulz a secret KGB spy? Is Merkel a leftover relic from the DDR Stassi? Could the Red Army Faction behind part of this? Could Trump be messing with the German political system? Are there Nazis behind this whole coalition deal or trying to halt the coalition? Could Macron have a hand in the creation of this fake Yuri-guy? Do the Brits have some James Bond-like guy trying to pretend to be Yuri, and trigger the collapse of the German government because of BREXIT? Who can you trust, if you don't trust Mutti (Merkel) and BILD?
The thing about fake news, is that there is usually one single thread that is standing out and making this look awful fake. The fake that you can't get a single email from anyone at Jusos.....which has a end-address of Jusos.de.....would be that thread.
But at this stage of the game....people would linger and have doubt. Was Kevin hooked to the KGB or Putin, or maybe that even Stalin guy? That doubt would be enough for you to just not vote....either way. It's silly in a way, but it's now front-page news for the weekend.
The Camp Guard Story
It came up in Focus Magazine today (the German news magazine) a conversation with the VP of the union of Federal Police members.
The topic came to the discussion going on about German federal police being used as asylum/immigration center operations planned out by the CDU-SPD coalition. The coalition group, led by Merkel....want a couple of federally-run centers in Germany, and there would be federal employees running them. Naturally, the suggestion by the federal folks is that they'd have cops as security over the centers.
Well...the VP of the union (Jörg Radek) said in a public response via "Passauer Neue Presse"...no, this would not be a federal police job. In simple terms....he even said: "We are not camp guards."
When you go and examine what regular German cops do....there's nothing in the past forty-odd years that would fit into this type of duty.
This brings me to this entire topic of the federally-run immigration/asylum centers that are being discussed. Both the CDU and SPD are desperate to give the public some hint or belief that they are acting and working on the security problem that people perceive. To be honest though....there's just not been much of a thought process here. A couple of political folks sitting around....some ideas thrown against the wall....some stick....some fail. Beyond that, there are hundreds of issues which simply haven't been discussed at length.
The cops in this case? I don't think they see this as a wise use of manpower, or see where the future of this whole program would end up.
If you end up with three or four immigration centers, where people are sitting not for days or weeks, but for months and years....awaiting some judge's order, or some permission of a country to accept some failed applicant....this would turn easily into a hostile environment. I can't see many cops wanting a forty-hour shift in that kind of situation.
If you have a few escapees.....you end up having some investigation into the leadership or security rules.
If the centers do get built and opened....my guess is that it'll end being a private security company operating the security details for the first year or two.
The topic came to the discussion going on about German federal police being used as asylum/immigration center operations planned out by the CDU-SPD coalition. The coalition group, led by Merkel....want a couple of federally-run centers in Germany, and there would be federal employees running them. Naturally, the suggestion by the federal folks is that they'd have cops as security over the centers.
Well...the VP of the union (Jörg Radek) said in a public response via "Passauer Neue Presse"...no, this would not be a federal police job. In simple terms....he even said: "We are not camp guards."
When you go and examine what regular German cops do....there's nothing in the past forty-odd years that would fit into this type of duty.
This brings me to this entire topic of the federally-run immigration/asylum centers that are being discussed. Both the CDU and SPD are desperate to give the public some hint or belief that they are acting and working on the security problem that people perceive. To be honest though....there's just not been much of a thought process here. A couple of political folks sitting around....some ideas thrown against the wall....some stick....some fail. Beyond that, there are hundreds of issues which simply haven't been discussed at length.
The cops in this case? I don't think they see this as a wise use of manpower, or see where the future of this whole program would end up.
If you end up with three or four immigration centers, where people are sitting not for days or weeks, but for months and years....awaiting some judge's order, or some permission of a country to accept some failed applicant....this would turn easily into a hostile environment. I can't see many cops wanting a forty-hour shift in that kind of situation.
If you have a few escapees.....you end up having some investigation into the leadership or security rules.
If the centers do get built and opened....my guess is that it'll end being a private security company operating the security details for the first year or two.
Another Three Billion Euro
It's not front-page news but ARD (public TV news, German Channel One) brought this up in the morning....as BREXIT finally occurs, the EU has more or less determined that it won't cut back on grants or dispersal of funding.
Logically, that means someone has to make up the difference of the Brits being gone.
The extra amount now put upon the nation of Germany? Three billion Euro...more or less. The final bill has yet to be figured up.
For the sake of this discussion....the Germans are the heavy-weight contributor to the EU budget.
Currently, the Germans put around thirteen billion Euro into the pot and probably sees around seventy-percent of the money come back as a 'gift' from the EU folks. The rest is used to finance the EU and 'gift' other nations of a lesser degree.
Where the three billion will come from? Either the Germans will have to invent a new taxation gimmick, or they have to go and cut from various services (maybe even cut on that defense budget again). Course, from the three billion going...you can probably expect three-quarters of it to come back to some German city for a grant to cover some program or building structure.
A publicly debated situation? No. I doubt if the German news media will mention much of this, and the money will quietly just get collected and sent off to Brussels.
Logically, that means someone has to make up the difference of the Brits being gone.
The extra amount now put upon the nation of Germany? Three billion Euro...more or less. The final bill has yet to be figured up.
For the sake of this discussion....the Germans are the heavy-weight contributor to the EU budget.
Currently, the Germans put around thirteen billion Euro into the pot and probably sees around seventy-percent of the money come back as a 'gift' from the EU folks. The rest is used to finance the EU and 'gift' other nations of a lesser degree.
Where the three billion will come from? Either the Germans will have to invent a new taxation gimmick, or they have to go and cut from various services (maybe even cut on that defense budget again). Course, from the three billion going...you can probably expect three-quarters of it to come back to some German city for a grant to cover some program or building structure.
A publicly debated situation? No. I doubt if the German news media will mention much of this, and the money will quietly just get collected and sent off to Brussels.
The Toilet Story
There's been this 'toilet-issue' brewing for the last couple of decade in Germany, and it's amusing where we've arrived. Most German kids will say that their German school toilet facilities are 'crap' (meaning unclean or marginally kept in sanitary conditions).
So here in Hessen, we've gone to a new trend.
For Americans who spent time in Germany on military tours, and experienced public toilet facilities...we are all familiar with the lady at the entry of a toilet, who keeps it sparkling clean and has a desk/chair set up....where you pay 'something' (20-cents is the usual....some guys/gals are guilty enough to pay 50-cents).
It is debatable about the amount made in one week, but at a typical public event, I would take a guess that the putz-frau clean-up lady would clear 200 Euro (tax-free, at least in my book).
So at the Alfred Wegener Comprehensive School in Kirchhain (Marburg-Biedenkopf), a visit to the school toilet will run you a minimum of 10-cents. I'm guessing some of the kids throw 20-cents into the plate, just to be nice.
Parents? Well, they don't like where this is really going. If this trend would carry on throughout all German schools....they think it would NOT be a positive thing.
You can imagine Huns standing there in front of you at 7 AM....ready for school but he needs 30 cents to cover his toilet activity. You get into this discussion...why three visits? Huns remarks that he does the short liquid event at 7:55....then a full four-minute visit at 9:45....then one last liquid event at 11:55. You start to add this up....it means you need to give little Huns 1.50 Euro per week, and in one normal school year....he'll need near 50 Euro to cover toilet expenses. For a marginal working-class German family....this adds up, especially if you have three kids.
The sad thing is that if you don't go this way....the toilets stay at a marginal clean status, and Huns starts to whine about the toilet not being clean.
So here in Hessen, we've gone to a new trend.
For Americans who spent time in Germany on military tours, and experienced public toilet facilities...we are all familiar with the lady at the entry of a toilet, who keeps it sparkling clean and has a desk/chair set up....where you pay 'something' (20-cents is the usual....some guys/gals are guilty enough to pay 50-cents).
It is debatable about the amount made in one week, but at a typical public event, I would take a guess that the putz-frau clean-up lady would clear 200 Euro (tax-free, at least in my book).
So at the Alfred Wegener Comprehensive School in Kirchhain (Marburg-Biedenkopf), a visit to the school toilet will run you a minimum of 10-cents. I'm guessing some of the kids throw 20-cents into the plate, just to be nice.
Parents? Well, they don't like where this is really going. If this trend would carry on throughout all German schools....they think it would NOT be a positive thing.
You can imagine Huns standing there in front of you at 7 AM....ready for school but he needs 30 cents to cover his toilet activity. You get into this discussion...why three visits? Huns remarks that he does the short liquid event at 7:55....then a full four-minute visit at 9:45....then one last liquid event at 11:55. You start to add this up....it means you need to give little Huns 1.50 Euro per week, and in one normal school year....he'll need near 50 Euro to cover toilet expenses. For a marginal working-class German family....this adds up, especially if you have three kids.
The sad thing is that if you don't go this way....the toilets stay at a marginal clean status, and Huns starts to whine about the toilet not being clean.
Dream Act
For probably twelve months, I've sat and watched German public TV (both ARD and ZDF networks) attempt to hype on an 'American-problem'.....the Dream Act and 'dreamers'. As with a lot of things associated with US news....there is a vast amount of information missing and most Germans are left with a half-understood topic.
So this is my short piece for Americans or Brits in Germany, and facing some hostile German wanting to harp on an anti-Trump piece or anti-US piece centered on the DREAM Act. Here's how you lead the German to a moment of reality.
1. The DREAM Act was a simple piece of legislation written originally in 2001 (17 years ago) by Senator Dick Durban of Illinois and Orrin Hatch of Utah (a Democrat and a Republican). No, it's not a recent thing.
2. The emphasis of the original draft centered on a non-American getting citizenship eventually. So the DREAM Act had these stipulations (it was a path): you had to be younger than 18 years old when you legally or illegally entered the US. You had have proof of having arrived in the country before age 16 (paperwork trail). You had to have proof of residence in the country for a minimum of four consecutive years since arrival. If you were a guy, you had to have registered with the Selective Service at some point. You had to have either a high school diploma or a GED, or been at some US university. Finally, you had to have some good character (yeah, it was written in a way to be questionable). If you had major charges against you.....you likely failed that part of the deal.
3. When you examine the emphasis of the DREAM Act....with all the paperwork required and Selected Service gimmick built into it....if you looked over the entire US, I doubt that more than 50,000 folks would actually fit into this whole concept. The news media will argue that several million could fit, but no one can explain how.
4. So the original DREAM Act failed in 2001. Six years pass, and Durban tries episode number two in 2007. It fails.
5. Episode number three occurs in 2009. Some wording changes but it doesn't matter. With a strong Democratic House (in charge) and a Democratic-controlled Senate. It fails once again. Note, this was during the Obama period.
6. Episode number four? In 2010. Yes, it fails.
7. Episode number five? In 2011, started this time by Senator Harry Reid. Yes, it fails.
8. In 2012, President Obama steps around passing the law and creates DACA. It took a couple of pieces from the DREAM Act and simply made an executive order to accomplish bits and pieces of legal immigration. Three-quarters of a million immigrants have registered with DACA. Because it's not a law....it means any President can modify it and go a different direction.
9. Why all the hype of the DREAM Act now? Some people act like they've never heard of the draft law before and pretend that it's brand new. It's more or less a staged event to get public attention. The fact that the Democrats had House and Senate control at various times and should have passed it....but did not....means that it's not really well supported.
10 Would Germans like to see a DREAM Act on their soil? Oh, well.....yeah, it's best not to bring up that topic. Would this type of law or legislation even pass via the current Bundestag? I have my doubts. The minute you hint that it might be unlimited....that would freak out a majority of Germans.
So this is my short piece for Americans or Brits in Germany, and facing some hostile German wanting to harp on an anti-Trump piece or anti-US piece centered on the DREAM Act. Here's how you lead the German to a moment of reality.
1. The DREAM Act was a simple piece of legislation written originally in 2001 (17 years ago) by Senator Dick Durban of Illinois and Orrin Hatch of Utah (a Democrat and a Republican). No, it's not a recent thing.
2. The emphasis of the original draft centered on a non-American getting citizenship eventually. So the DREAM Act had these stipulations (it was a path): you had to be younger than 18 years old when you legally or illegally entered the US. You had have proof of having arrived in the country before age 16 (paperwork trail). You had to have proof of residence in the country for a minimum of four consecutive years since arrival. If you were a guy, you had to have registered with the Selective Service at some point. You had to have either a high school diploma or a GED, or been at some US university. Finally, you had to have some good character (yeah, it was written in a way to be questionable). If you had major charges against you.....you likely failed that part of the deal.
3. When you examine the emphasis of the DREAM Act....with all the paperwork required and Selected Service gimmick built into it....if you looked over the entire US, I doubt that more than 50,000 folks would actually fit into this whole concept. The news media will argue that several million could fit, but no one can explain how.
4. So the original DREAM Act failed in 2001. Six years pass, and Durban tries episode number two in 2007. It fails.
5. Episode number three occurs in 2009. Some wording changes but it doesn't matter. With a strong Democratic House (in charge) and a Democratic-controlled Senate. It fails once again. Note, this was during the Obama period.
6. Episode number four? In 2010. Yes, it fails.
7. Episode number five? In 2011, started this time by Senator Harry Reid. Yes, it fails.
8. In 2012, President Obama steps around passing the law and creates DACA. It took a couple of pieces from the DREAM Act and simply made an executive order to accomplish bits and pieces of legal immigration. Three-quarters of a million immigrants have registered with DACA. Because it's not a law....it means any President can modify it and go a different direction.
9. Why all the hype of the DREAM Act now? Some people act like they've never heard of the draft law before and pretend that it's brand new. It's more or less a staged event to get public attention. The fact that the Democrats had House and Senate control at various times and should have passed it....but did not....means that it's not really well supported.
10 Would Germans like to see a DREAM Act on their soil? Oh, well.....yeah, it's best not to bring up that topic. Would this type of law or legislation even pass via the current Bundestag? I have my doubts. The minute you hint that it might be unlimited....that would freak out a majority of Germans.
Numbers Tell a Story
The ARD folks (public TV in Germany, Channel One) did a political poll situation across Germany. If there was an election tomorrow, it'd create a huge amount of chaos.
CDU: 33-percent
SPD: 16-percent
Greens: 13-percent
FDP: 9-percent
Linke Party: 11-percent
AfD Party (anti-immigration folks): 15-percent
If you go back to September and the national election....the SPD had a fairly bad showing as it was....but now have slipped roughly six points since then. The AfD? Oddly, they continue to rise, as do the Greens.
If you held an election now....course the CDU would win, but how would form a new government? A coalition exercise? No matter how you do the numbers....you have to have three groups to make 50-percent or more. Once you make the rule within the CDU that you can't partner with the AfD or the Linke Party....this becomes an impossible exercise.
Will this early March vote within the SPD Party form up around a CDU-SPD government? I have my doubts. And if this trend with the SPD losing public support continues? You could be looking at one single significant party in Germany, and maybe five or six 10-to-15 percent sub-player parties.
CDU: 33-percent
SPD: 16-percent
Greens: 13-percent
FDP: 9-percent
Linke Party: 11-percent
AfD Party (anti-immigration folks): 15-percent
If you go back to September and the national election....the SPD had a fairly bad showing as it was....but now have slipped roughly six points since then. The AfD? Oddly, they continue to rise, as do the Greens.
If you held an election now....course the CDU would win, but how would form a new government? A coalition exercise? No matter how you do the numbers....you have to have three groups to make 50-percent or more. Once you make the rule within the CDU that you can't partner with the AfD or the Linke Party....this becomes an impossible exercise.
Will this early March vote within the SPD Party form up around a CDU-SPD government? I have my doubts. And if this trend with the SPD losing public support continues? You could be looking at one single significant party in Germany, and maybe five or six 10-to-15 percent sub-player parties.
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Ten Observations Over the Free Transportation Discussion
Its amazing to me how this topic came up on Monday, and has been turned into a big topic. The deal revolves around the idea that Germany has to resolve air pollution issues, or face heavy fines from the EU. Note, the Germans are the ones who stressed pollutant standards and the heavy fines. So what the Chancellor and 'company' want....is a totally open and free public transportation system where cars just aren't used, period. They don't come out and say that fines or entry-into-cities will be costly, but you start to realize just how far this could go. So, my observations:
1. If you go to major urban areas like Frankfurt or Mannheim....they all have public transportation (tram, railway, and buses). Most are running at 80 to 100 percent capacity in rush-hours....so there's very little space left to suggest doubling up the passenger load will be easy.
2. How far will this 'shadow' have to run, to be successful? If you take the city-limits of Frankfurt, and then throw up a circle of 15 kilometers beyond that circle.....you get to what I'd call the first stage. But there are various kids attending schools beyond that 15 kilometer circle, and various adults going to work from 40 kilometers away. So you'd have to build an infrastructure that stretches at least fifty kilometers from the base. Just suggesting that to a public transportation planner....would scare the crap out of most folks. We aren't talking about a two-bus per hour, or 12-train-stops per day.....we are talking about a remote village in that circle which would have a minimum of two stops per hour, from 5AM to probably midnight.
3. The amount of maintenance required and personnel to run a public structure twice the size as currently in all cities of Germany? You'd be talking about doubling the number of buses, the drivers, and probably near doubling the number of trams operating around the country.
4. Would foreigners visiting get the free deal? Would you punish the foreign folks who drive their cars into Germany?
5. Will you destroy the German car companies (BMW, Mercedes, VW, Audi)? It just seems to me that if you approach this idea....the VW guys are finished and can just pack up to move somewhere else.
6. What about all the effort for electric cars? Massive amount of propaganda and now?
7. What of all the parking garages built over the past forty years? Will they be compensated by the government for non-business? No one says much.
8. If folks don't buy cars, and gas isn't really consumed...there's no real gas tax. So how will the roads be financed? I know....it's a stupid topic but you just sense that there's a huge mystery here over how financing for any of this would work in the future.
9. The only place I've ever been where public transportation was free? Melbourne, Australia. There's a two-mile by two-mile area of down-town, where the tram and buses are free. In an isolated area, of a certain size.....I could see this being done. But to suggest this to a massive scale? No, it's never been done.
10. I think the mere suggestion here to the EU of some crazy idea like this....will scare the crap out of the EU political folks. If you did it in Germany....why not Amsterdam or Brussels?
Here's the odd thing about this whole idea. For these five cities that have gained the status of a test-city and will get tons of money to build their free deal.....it'll involve an entire year of discussions, and probably another year of planning. Then you get into the construction and ordering phase. The actual first day of real use? Maybe six years away from today. The results of the five cities? You won't hear about any final results until 2025 at the earliest (my humble guess). This is all mostly a show to buy the political folks time....lots of time.
1. If you go to major urban areas like Frankfurt or Mannheim....they all have public transportation (tram, railway, and buses). Most are running at 80 to 100 percent capacity in rush-hours....so there's very little space left to suggest doubling up the passenger load will be easy.
2. How far will this 'shadow' have to run, to be successful? If you take the city-limits of Frankfurt, and then throw up a circle of 15 kilometers beyond that circle.....you get to what I'd call the first stage. But there are various kids attending schools beyond that 15 kilometer circle, and various adults going to work from 40 kilometers away. So you'd have to build an infrastructure that stretches at least fifty kilometers from the base. Just suggesting that to a public transportation planner....would scare the crap out of most folks. We aren't talking about a two-bus per hour, or 12-train-stops per day.....we are talking about a remote village in that circle which would have a minimum of two stops per hour, from 5AM to probably midnight.
3. The amount of maintenance required and personnel to run a public structure twice the size as currently in all cities of Germany? You'd be talking about doubling the number of buses, the drivers, and probably near doubling the number of trams operating around the country.
4. Would foreigners visiting get the free deal? Would you punish the foreign folks who drive their cars into Germany?
5. Will you destroy the German car companies (BMW, Mercedes, VW, Audi)? It just seems to me that if you approach this idea....the VW guys are finished and can just pack up to move somewhere else.
6. What about all the effort for electric cars? Massive amount of propaganda and now?
7. What of all the parking garages built over the past forty years? Will they be compensated by the government for non-business? No one says much.
8. If folks don't buy cars, and gas isn't really consumed...there's no real gas tax. So how will the roads be financed? I know....it's a stupid topic but you just sense that there's a huge mystery here over how financing for any of this would work in the future.
9. The only place I've ever been where public transportation was free? Melbourne, Australia. There's a two-mile by two-mile area of down-town, where the tram and buses are free. In an isolated area, of a certain size.....I could see this being done. But to suggest this to a massive scale? No, it's never been done.
10. I think the mere suggestion here to the EU of some crazy idea like this....will scare the crap out of the EU political folks. If you did it in Germany....why not Amsterdam or Brussels?
Here's the odd thing about this whole idea. For these five cities that have gained the status of a test-city and will get tons of money to build their free deal.....it'll involve an entire year of discussions, and probably another year of planning. Then you get into the construction and ordering phase. The actual first day of real use? Maybe six years away from today. The results of the five cities? You won't hear about any final results until 2025 at the earliest (my humble guess). This is all mostly a show to buy the political folks time....lots of time.
The Hermes Story
One of the major door-to-door delivery folks in Germany is Hermes.
After the Christmas period this year.....virtually all of the delivery companies stood up and admitted that they had a lot of complaints. Folks are mostly gritting their teeth over how the system works....no matter what company is involved.
Hermes came up today and said it had a bold new idea. They were willing to give up on delivering to homes. Yep, a big shock. They said it'd better to have neighborhood or town shops set up, and you'd get this email to come by....to pick up your box.
I sat and thought about it, and have to agree....that's what people really want.
But they want a place that's open at 6AM and stays open until at least 9PM. Where would you find such a place? Local grocery operations.
But you'd have to develop a model....get the grocery folks to agree to a service...maybe a 30-cent fee for handling, and then sell the public on this idea.
Odds that Hermes will go to this concept? There's so much hostility brewing over delivery operations, that I don't see what you have to lose.
After the Christmas period this year.....virtually all of the delivery companies stood up and admitted that they had a lot of complaints. Folks are mostly gritting their teeth over how the system works....no matter what company is involved.
Hermes came up today and said it had a bold new idea. They were willing to give up on delivering to homes. Yep, a big shock. They said it'd better to have neighborhood or town shops set up, and you'd get this email to come by....to pick up your box.
I sat and thought about it, and have to agree....that's what people really want.
But they want a place that's open at 6AM and stays open until at least 9PM. Where would you find such a place? Local grocery operations.
But you'd have to develop a model....get the grocery folks to agree to a service...maybe a 30-cent fee for handling, and then sell the public on this idea.
Odds that Hermes will go to this concept? There's so much hostility brewing over delivery operations, that I don't see what you have to lose.
This German NATO Headquarters Talk
Over the last week....it's been discussed lightly in the German news media that Germany wants to have a major NATO headquarters in Germany.
Why?
This gets to be kinda amusing. First, there is the NATO headquarters that exists already in Brussels, Belgium. It's been there for almost fifty years. They aren't really saying they want to replace that structure.
What the Germans hint at....is that they want a logistics hub headquarters....where logistical decisions are made for all of NATO. Course, you'd ask the question....aren't these decisions already made in the Brussels HQ's? Well....yes and no.
Typically, at the NATO headquarters in Brussels.....they make decisions about troops, tanks, or aircraft moving to some exercise area, or some operational area, and then the logistics part of this is accomplished within that country's own resources.
To be honest....with the exception of the US, the UK, France, and Germany....the logistics might of the remaining members of NATO isn't much to discuss.
Where would this German NATO logistical hub headquarters be located? Already decided by the Germans....Bonn. They have a German base there and ample room to build upon it.
Do the other members support this? Total unknown. No one has talked much about this, and I doubt that the Brits, French or Americans really feel hyped up about this idea.
Are the Germans really good at logistical decisions? No. This is not the 1940 German Army period, and most of the time that logistics come up in German Army news today....it's a really sad and dismal story.
Why hype this idea? They'd like to reach 2-percent of spending levels, but they want the money to stay within Germany. So for some brief period....maybe two years....they'd build the building, and housing area, and the money would stay local. After the two years of building? Well, one might suspect that they'd slide back down to 1.2-percent of GDP.
Do we really need this structure? The Cold War ended in the early 1990s. It's hard to stand up and say that Russia is some big threat. Is it worth spending a billion Euro on some Bonn base structure? One might have doubts.
Would the US support this? They will tell you that they don't really need another 'filter' and it's doubtful that making a fake-headquarters like this would really make any difference....if you don't really pick up the slack of logistical requirements. My gut feeling is that Trump and team won't support this. The French? Unlikely as well. The Brits? Only if it helps them get good results for BREXIT.
So, that's the big picture of this discussion. It probably won't go too far.
Why?
This gets to be kinda amusing. First, there is the NATO headquarters that exists already in Brussels, Belgium. It's been there for almost fifty years. They aren't really saying they want to replace that structure.
What the Germans hint at....is that they want a logistics hub headquarters....where logistical decisions are made for all of NATO. Course, you'd ask the question....aren't these decisions already made in the Brussels HQ's? Well....yes and no.
Typically, at the NATO headquarters in Brussels.....they make decisions about troops, tanks, or aircraft moving to some exercise area, or some operational area, and then the logistics part of this is accomplished within that country's own resources.
To be honest....with the exception of the US, the UK, France, and Germany....the logistics might of the remaining members of NATO isn't much to discuss.
Where would this German NATO logistical hub headquarters be located? Already decided by the Germans....Bonn. They have a German base there and ample room to build upon it.
Do the other members support this? Total unknown. No one has talked much about this, and I doubt that the Brits, French or Americans really feel hyped up about this idea.
Are the Germans really good at logistical decisions? No. This is not the 1940 German Army period, and most of the time that logistics come up in German Army news today....it's a really sad and dismal story.
Why hype this idea? They'd like to reach 2-percent of spending levels, but they want the money to stay within Germany. So for some brief period....maybe two years....they'd build the building, and housing area, and the money would stay local. After the two years of building? Well, one might suspect that they'd slide back down to 1.2-percent of GDP.
Do we really need this structure? The Cold War ended in the early 1990s. It's hard to stand up and say that Russia is some big threat. Is it worth spending a billion Euro on some Bonn base structure? One might have doubts.
Would the US support this? They will tell you that they don't really need another 'filter' and it's doubtful that making a fake-headquarters like this would really make any difference....if you don't really pick up the slack of logistical requirements. My gut feeling is that Trump and team won't support this. The French? Unlikely as well. The Brits? Only if it helps them get good results for BREXIT.
So, that's the big picture of this discussion. It probably won't go too far.
The Hessen Free Transportation Talk
It's odd how this 'free transportation' deal came up and became the number one topic for the past 72 hours.
This morning, my local network....HR (the Hessen public network) covered the topic.
HR went and interviewed the state Transport Minister....Tarek Al-Wazir...a Green Party guy. He more or less said that it's a fantasy.
His quote: "Easy to call 'in vain for everyone' does not seem particularly elaborate."
He points out....without ticket revenue, there's a heck of a lot (billions) that simply aren't there.
He even goes on to talk about the act of doubling passengers (basically what this whole process would be about)....you'd have to double the train and bus network. Most folks around Frankfurt would readily agree with him....the whole network operating now is at maximum capacity. 747 million folks rode the regional network in 2017. To suggest them taking up to around 1.5 billion? Don't even bother.
How much does the regional network make per year? 900 million Euro.
They even went onto to analyze how the network is used now and the biggest problem existing. If you have someone at some rural point of the Frankfurt 'shadow', needing to make it into a particular part of Darmstadt....you could be talking about four changes in a one-hour period to make it into work or university. At present, it's unrealistic to make the route work, and using a car is simply smarter.
It's amazing how this topic moved up and is long discussed by the public. I would suggest that the Merkel coalition has opened up a can of worms. Even the Greens kinda admit that this is way outside of reality to offer free transportation.
So you stand back and think about things that came up two years ago. Germany hustled up and passed a law that said that gas and diesel cars (new vehicles) would NOT be allowed to be sold after 2030. It had to be electric in nature. Most Germans (I'd say three-quarters) believed this was achievable and within reason. This would give everyone the ability to ride on their own, and still have a private vehicle to get to work. So you have to ask yourself....WHY go and dump this free-transportation deal on the table? I doubt if you can find more than ten-percent of society who think that it's possible to do this.
Behind all of this....I think the EU is getting close to pushing Germany into some fine deal....via the court system, over the clean air standards. When you go back twenty years ago....Germany was all hyped up to talk about enforcing clean air upon all of Europe and forced standards. So they got the standards, and now it's obvious that German cities (like Frankfurt, Munich, Essen, etc)....can't meet the EU standards.
It's a curious topic and will be around for weeks, I think.
This morning, my local network....HR (the Hessen public network) covered the topic.
HR went and interviewed the state Transport Minister....Tarek Al-Wazir...a Green Party guy. He more or less said that it's a fantasy.
His quote: "Easy to call 'in vain for everyone' does not seem particularly elaborate."
He points out....without ticket revenue, there's a heck of a lot (billions) that simply aren't there.
He even goes on to talk about the act of doubling passengers (basically what this whole process would be about)....you'd have to double the train and bus network. Most folks around Frankfurt would readily agree with him....the whole network operating now is at maximum capacity. 747 million folks rode the regional network in 2017. To suggest them taking up to around 1.5 billion? Don't even bother.
How much does the regional network make per year? 900 million Euro.
They even went onto to analyze how the network is used now and the biggest problem existing. If you have someone at some rural point of the Frankfurt 'shadow', needing to make it into a particular part of Darmstadt....you could be talking about four changes in a one-hour period to make it into work or university. At present, it's unrealistic to make the route work, and using a car is simply smarter.
It's amazing how this topic moved up and is long discussed by the public. I would suggest that the Merkel coalition has opened up a can of worms. Even the Greens kinda admit that this is way outside of reality to offer free transportation.
So you stand back and think about things that came up two years ago. Germany hustled up and passed a law that said that gas and diesel cars (new vehicles) would NOT be allowed to be sold after 2030. It had to be electric in nature. Most Germans (I'd say three-quarters) believed this was achievable and within reason. This would give everyone the ability to ride on their own, and still have a private vehicle to get to work. So you have to ask yourself....WHY go and dump this free-transportation deal on the table? I doubt if you can find more than ten-percent of society who think that it's possible to do this.
Behind all of this....I think the EU is getting close to pushing Germany into some fine deal....via the court system, over the clean air standards. When you go back twenty years ago....Germany was all hyped up to talk about enforcing clean air upon all of Europe and forced standards. So they got the standards, and now it's obvious that German cities (like Frankfurt, Munich, Essen, etc)....can't meet the EU standards.
It's a curious topic and will be around for weeks, I think.
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
More on the 'Free Ride' Commentary
I noted out of Hamburg news this morning, a fair amount of skeptical nature over this free bus/tram ticket idea by the Berlin leadership.
NDR put a fair bit of commentary over the idea.
In the region of Hamburg, there's roughly 850 million Euro of local tram/bus tickets sold yearly....so as they point out....someone would have to cough up that money to make this all 'free'. Hint: tax-payers.
The city spokesperson even went onto discuss the internal capability of the network....trams, buses, etc....it's all built to handle X-number of passengers. The local Hamburg network is figured to transport around 770.5 million passengers every year.
I've been to Hamburg and will vouch that they have a four-star public transportation system within the city. But to suggest it could double up? Not without massive infrastructure costs.
You would likely be talking about billions to be spent over a decade to reach some stage where everything works as advertised.
Skeptical nature now attacking this Berlin idea? I would speculate that the Berlin political folks are simply trying to buy time and avoid an EU confrontation. In a way, by the EU's nature....it could make a lot of people angry over the attitude taken.
NDR put a fair bit of commentary over the idea.
In the region of Hamburg, there's roughly 850 million Euro of local tram/bus tickets sold yearly....so as they point out....someone would have to cough up that money to make this all 'free'. Hint: tax-payers.
The city spokesperson even went onto discuss the internal capability of the network....trams, buses, etc....it's all built to handle X-number of passengers. The local Hamburg network is figured to transport around 770.5 million passengers every year.
I've been to Hamburg and will vouch that they have a four-star public transportation system within the city. But to suggest it could double up? Not without massive infrastructure costs.
You would likely be talking about billions to be spent over a decade to reach some stage where everything works as advertised.
Skeptical nature now attacking this Berlin idea? I would speculate that the Berlin political folks are simply trying to buy time and avoid an EU confrontation. In a way, by the EU's nature....it could make a lot of people angry over the attitude taken.
SPD Party in Tail-Spin?
If you follow headlines in Germany, especially over the past seven days....it's safe to say that all news organizations are portraying the SPD Party (left of center) to be in total chaos.
What really happened here?
I would go to three basic elements.
1. When the SPD Party came up in late 2016 and announced the arrival of Martin Schulz to be their new front-guy and lead the party onto the September 2017 election....they felt some great but fake enthusiasm. Schulz was hyped up over pro-migration and the EU. Beyond that, he just didn't connect to the bulk of SPD voters. In a way, they were expecting something different.
2. The youth of the SPD Party movement just aren't reading off the same script as the SPD leadership. This probably has been going on for a decade or more, but in the past six months....it's reached a stage where there's a total disconnect.
3. Finally, you come to the news media itself, and the handling or criticism being muffled or limited over the past couple of years. If the political folks were being stupid.....it was lightly observed and rarely critical in commentary. It's hard to find anyone over the past year who jumped on Schulz from ARD or ZDF.
What'll happen now? My guess is that the coalition vote on 4 March will fail, and that the party will go through a long process of rebuilding. I also think the youth of the SPD will step away and find other political parties to attach themselves upon. Both the Bavarian and Hessen state elections will spell out the pain the party and show lesser numbers than expected.
What really happened here?
I would go to three basic elements.
1. When the SPD Party came up in late 2016 and announced the arrival of Martin Schulz to be their new front-guy and lead the party onto the September 2017 election....they felt some great but fake enthusiasm. Schulz was hyped up over pro-migration and the EU. Beyond that, he just didn't connect to the bulk of SPD voters. In a way, they were expecting something different.
2. The youth of the SPD Party movement just aren't reading off the same script as the SPD leadership. This probably has been going on for a decade or more, but in the past six months....it's reached a stage where there's a total disconnect.
3. Finally, you come to the news media itself, and the handling or criticism being muffled or limited over the past couple of years. If the political folks were being stupid.....it was lightly observed and rarely critical in commentary. It's hard to find anyone over the past year who jumped on Schulz from ARD or ZDF.
What'll happen now? My guess is that the coalition vote on 4 March will fail, and that the party will go through a long process of rebuilding. I also think the youth of the SPD will step away and find other political parties to attach themselves upon. Both the Bavarian and Hessen state elections will spell out the pain the party and show lesser numbers than expected.
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
More on the Free Ticket Deal
ARD (public TV in Germany, Channel One) came up with a fair amount of information over this free transportation deal and how it's being stacked up.
The crisis driving this, is the threat by major cities in Germany to halt or forbid entry of diesel cars. In some ways, it's a major crisis and threatens several million cars....probably bringing a massive amount of anger and frustration to the general public. So to counter the diesel car crisis....the Merkel-led government is now discussing the idea of free public transportation. You would drive up to the city limits, park, and the bus/tram network would carry you freely to work. If you lived in the city itself, it'd all be free transportation.
So the first step that the government did...in a way of stalling this whole discussion....was to send up a letter to the EU to request 'permission' to provide such a service. This whole thing is designed as a test, and would be limited in the initial stage to five German cities:
1. Mannheim, population: 300,000. They actually have a fairly decent light-rail system, and the city lies along major autobahns.
2. Bonn, population 315,000.
3. Essen, population: 575,000.
4. Herrenberg, population: 31,000. Small town about 30 minutes outside of Stuttgart. No tram or light-rail.
5. Reutlingen: Population: 113,000. Significant city to the south of Germany.
If you look over the five, three have significant public traffic daily, and you would be bumping up the regional capability to handle probably twice the number of daily passengers.
Why the letter? Well....the EU is in a position of a threat to Germany. There's been a clean air issue brewing for more than a decade, and Germany has politically avoided the public discussion. This is one of the amazing stories that public news has avoided for the most part. So now, the German government wants the EU to back off on the threat of a court-episode, and just accept free transportation as the solution.
If the EU says no, and continues on? Well....it'd be in a EU court and Germany likely loses. Then there would be daily fines. No one says much over how much, but I'd take a guess that a million Euro a day would be the minimum (per day).
What happens now? The EU has to view this in terms of opening up a can of worms across all of the EU. If Germany offers free transportation, the EU court system might view this as the big solution and push everyone toward this.
Meanwhile, it buys time.
Let's be honest....once you start the test....there will have to be a team in each city which evaluates what to add, request the additional funding, buy, build, and evaluate success.
How long will the 'test' run? I would take a guess that you could be looking at five to eight years.
First, you'd have to go and determine where to building parking lots for cars on the outer boundary of cities. Then you'd have to have light-rail or bus networks that would transport you into the city itself. Additional capacity? In the case of Mannheim, you'd have to probably double the number of trams running around the city.
Second, the infrastructure money. Well....just for the test, I would take a wild guess that we are talking about a minimum of five billion Euro. I'm also guessing that Merkel hasn't been told the real cost and the whole crew will be shocked at the substantial amount that it would take to make a successful test.
Third, just how far will you take this? It's not just for free tickets for Germans, but for anyone visiting the country, or staying briefly. Will it include railway tickets from one major city to another? I kinda doubt that. There has to be a limit to the interior of cities.
Fourth, and the more curious aspect....a template. Once you finish this test, you will have a lesson's learned episode. Rather than reinvent the whole concept in all German cities and waste tons of money....you'd have a list of a hundred-odd features or issues that you could grasp and build a structure around.
It's a massive amount of funding to take this to the top level, and I just don't see the public blessing this kind of event when they figure out the actual cost. There's just no such thing as a 'free ticket'. Someone is going to pay for all of this infrastructure and daily cost.
The crisis driving this, is the threat by major cities in Germany to halt or forbid entry of diesel cars. In some ways, it's a major crisis and threatens several million cars....probably bringing a massive amount of anger and frustration to the general public. So to counter the diesel car crisis....the Merkel-led government is now discussing the idea of free public transportation. You would drive up to the city limits, park, and the bus/tram network would carry you freely to work. If you lived in the city itself, it'd all be free transportation.
So the first step that the government did...in a way of stalling this whole discussion....was to send up a letter to the EU to request 'permission' to provide such a service. This whole thing is designed as a test, and would be limited in the initial stage to five German cities:
1. Mannheim, population: 300,000. They actually have a fairly decent light-rail system, and the city lies along major autobahns.
2. Bonn, population 315,000.
3. Essen, population: 575,000.
4. Herrenberg, population: 31,000. Small town about 30 minutes outside of Stuttgart. No tram or light-rail.
5. Reutlingen: Population: 113,000. Significant city to the south of Germany.
If you look over the five, three have significant public traffic daily, and you would be bumping up the regional capability to handle probably twice the number of daily passengers.
Why the letter? Well....the EU is in a position of a threat to Germany. There's been a clean air issue brewing for more than a decade, and Germany has politically avoided the public discussion. This is one of the amazing stories that public news has avoided for the most part. So now, the German government wants the EU to back off on the threat of a court-episode, and just accept free transportation as the solution.
If the EU says no, and continues on? Well....it'd be in a EU court and Germany likely loses. Then there would be daily fines. No one says much over how much, but I'd take a guess that a million Euro a day would be the minimum (per day).
What happens now? The EU has to view this in terms of opening up a can of worms across all of the EU. If Germany offers free transportation, the EU court system might view this as the big solution and push everyone toward this.
Meanwhile, it buys time.
Let's be honest....once you start the test....there will have to be a team in each city which evaluates what to add, request the additional funding, buy, build, and evaluate success.
How long will the 'test' run? I would take a guess that you could be looking at five to eight years.
First, you'd have to go and determine where to building parking lots for cars on the outer boundary of cities. Then you'd have to have light-rail or bus networks that would transport you into the city itself. Additional capacity? In the case of Mannheim, you'd have to probably double the number of trams running around the city.
Second, the infrastructure money. Well....just for the test, I would take a wild guess that we are talking about a minimum of five billion Euro. I'm also guessing that Merkel hasn't been told the real cost and the whole crew will be shocked at the substantial amount that it would take to make a successful test.
Third, just how far will you take this? It's not just for free tickets for Germans, but for anyone visiting the country, or staying briefly. Will it include railway tickets from one major city to another? I kinda doubt that. There has to be a limit to the interior of cities.
Fourth, and the more curious aspect....a template. Once you finish this test, you will have a lesson's learned episode. Rather than reinvent the whole concept in all German cities and waste tons of money....you'd have a list of a hundred-odd features or issues that you could grasp and build a structure around.
It's a massive amount of funding to take this to the top level, and I just don't see the public blessing this kind of event when they figure out the actual cost. There's just no such thing as a 'free ticket'. Someone is going to pay for all of this infrastructure and daily cost.
Mainz Parade
Yesterday was a holiday in Mainz....Fasching. Several hundred-thousand folks showed up for the big Rosemontag Parade.Generally, folks start to already be there around 6AM....getting their floats in the final stage for the parade. By 9Am....folks start to show up on the streets, and about a quarter of them are already sipping alcohol or beer. I know, it's a bit early, but folks in Mainz are that way.
Around 11:11 AM, the parade officially starts, running through roughly two miles. From beginning to end....it'll take roughly five to six hours. All the while....booze being consumed.
190 of the cases that the cops handled were teenagers or juveniles
The 2nd picture you see is around by the Bahnhof, around 10:30 AM, and a couple of the college students engaged in a bowling type game where you need to consume an entire beer if you knock the ball over. Luckily, each kid had a six-pack of beer to start with. They were finished with the beer game in roughly thirty minutes (figure six each).
The third picture? These were two gentlemen who appeared to have consumed a fair amount by 11:30 and were basically holding each other up while walking down the street.I stood and viewed the number of ambulance crews and medical folks in the background. I would guess that at least three-hundred folks were there to handle emergency situations. Extreme drunkenness is simply one of their jobs to handle. I felt sorry for the medical folks.
Security? The city and state brought out a lot of cops to ensure the safe nature of the parade.
The curious thing is that the cops report at least fifteen folks that they had to go and arrest, and they were confrontational to the cops.....meaning they were going to resist arrest. That stupidity usually gets you some serious judgement time with the court-system, and you can imagine telling the judge that you just don't remember much because you were almost passed out.
I stood around and watched this for about 2.5 hours, and then said enough. It was fairly chilly, and I was probably watching the drunks....more than the parade.
Nahles Not Becoming SPD Party Chief?
It's a bit of a shock in the German news today as things unfold from Friday's announcement that Martin Schulz would not become the Foreign Minister, and the strong hint that Andrea Nahles would step up to become the new Party Chief.
Numerous SPD Party members are suggesting a total rebuild of the party, and not supporting Andrea Nahles for the chief position.
If Nahles doesn't get the job? I would have my doubts that the coalition agreement to be voted upon by the 460,000 SPD members on 3 March...will FAIL. The party is heading toward a situation where it's divided and things are in a fluid state.
How did it get this bad? I lay the blame at three key factors:
1. There are essentially three groups of the SPD voters. The first are the guys over fifty years old, and chiefly concerned about taxes and pensions. The second group are tied to special agenda items that have nothing to do with taxes and pensions, but social behavior and trendy subjects. Then you have the third group who are mostly between the ages of eighteen and twenty-five....who are hyped up on pro-asylum, pro-environment, and pro-social causes. These three groups are not mixing well within the SPD Party anymore.
2. The chief supporter of the old SPD (going back to the 70s to 90s)....was the working-class German. If you asked most of these people today....what the party has done for them in the past five years....they just start laughing because they haven't seen much. Oh, there's lots to talk about on environmentalism and pro-asylum, but that's not what common working-class Germans want to discuss.
3. Finally, you come to smaller parties who seem to offer more than what the SPD can offer. The Greens, the FDP, and the Linke Party all have more to offer.
The odds that Nahles will not become the party chief? On Friday, I would have suggested less than a ten-percent chance that she'd fail in this political maneuver. Right now? I would suggest it's getting closer to a one-in-three chance that she will fail to get the job.
Pretty odd change of events.
Numerous SPD Party members are suggesting a total rebuild of the party, and not supporting Andrea Nahles for the chief position.
If Nahles doesn't get the job? I would have my doubts that the coalition agreement to be voted upon by the 460,000 SPD members on 3 March...will FAIL. The party is heading toward a situation where it's divided and things are in a fluid state.
How did it get this bad? I lay the blame at three key factors:
1. There are essentially three groups of the SPD voters. The first are the guys over fifty years old, and chiefly concerned about taxes and pensions. The second group are tied to special agenda items that have nothing to do with taxes and pensions, but social behavior and trendy subjects. Then you have the third group who are mostly between the ages of eighteen and twenty-five....who are hyped up on pro-asylum, pro-environment, and pro-social causes. These three groups are not mixing well within the SPD Party anymore.
2. The chief supporter of the old SPD (going back to the 70s to 90s)....was the working-class German. If you asked most of these people today....what the party has done for them in the past five years....they just start laughing because they haven't seen much. Oh, there's lots to talk about on environmentalism and pro-asylum, but that's not what common working-class Germans want to discuss.
3. Finally, you come to smaller parties who seem to offer more than what the SPD can offer. The Greens, the FDP, and the Linke Party all have more to offer.
The odds that Nahles will not become the party chief? On Friday, I would have suggested less than a ten-percent chance that she'd fail in this political maneuver. Right now? I would suggest it's getting closer to a one-in-three chance that she will fail to get the job.
Pretty odd change of events.
The Free Ride Story
There is a fairly long piece by Focus (the German news magazine) today....which chats to the subject that the German federal government MIGHT be willing to offer FREE PUBLIC transportation to reduce the number of vehicles within urban areas.
Now, you should not get all hyped up and thinking that this will mean free rides for everyone.
You have to remember why this topic is coming up. Urban areas (Stuttgart, Frankfurt, etc) are all reviewing the rules to stop diesel cars from entering their city limits. It's believed by the end of 2018....some cities will have legal direction on this and then stop diesel owners from entering their areas.
The discussed federal solution would be that the Berlin federal folks would support counties and cities who want to introduce free rides (meaning bus and rail)....within city limits.
Who would pay for this? Naturally, you'd sit and pause over this because SOMEONE must pay for the free rides. The taxpayer? Well.....yeah.
Nationwide, it's estimated that roughly 12 billion Euro are required each year to fund metropolitan networks (both bus and rail). Half of that comes from ticket sales, and the other half via the federal government. To some extent, you would be correct to say that travel is already subsidized, at least half-way.
A true solution?
I sat and paused over this idea. If you said that no diesel cars could enter Frankfurt city limits....you'd be talking about at least 100,000 vehicles....maybe even going up to 200,000 vehicles....per day. So you'd have to have parking established on the outer boundary of the city. You can figure a minimum of twenty massive parking lots. Then you'd have to add the capability between 7AM and 9AM....to haul an extra 100,000 folks minimum....maybe an extra 200,000 folks. In effect, I would suggest doubling the whole railway network within Frankfurt for morning and evening rush-hours.
How many more trains to be added? Just in Frankfurt alone, you'd be talking about twenty minimum. More buses? Yes. Probably over a hundred additional buses to make something like this work.
All free? Well, then you'd come to the parking situation and ask....will parking be free? Right now....NO. You pay some small weekly or monthly fee for your car. You can figure that parking will be some fee-based deal.
Public acceptance? Once they figure out that they have ante up another couple hundred a year in taxation...it'll become a harsh reality and some Germans will ask about the future.
Could the nation cover this cost factor? I don't think you'd be talking about 12 lousy billion Euro. I would suggest the amount would double up to around 20-to-24 billion Euro per year....easily.
Taxation? You'd have to invent another tax and let everyone participate in this deal....figure at least 500 Euro per year....per adult minimum. I would have doubts that an extra 500 Euro on taxation would be enough.
Inventing a bigger mess? If you've ever traveled in rush-hour in Hamburg or Frankfurt....you tend to notice the system really maxed out, as things are today. So suggesting another one-third more travelers....maybe even 50-percent more travelers? It just makes me wonder what idiot would dream up a scheme like this? If you had twenty years and built other networks....light-rail lines....engineered great off-ramps for parking, and massive stations on the outskirts of cities....maybe this would all work. But I have my doubts that you could whip this up in a year or two.
A bigger mess coming? Yes.
Now, you should not get all hyped up and thinking that this will mean free rides for everyone.
You have to remember why this topic is coming up. Urban areas (Stuttgart, Frankfurt, etc) are all reviewing the rules to stop diesel cars from entering their city limits. It's believed by the end of 2018....some cities will have legal direction on this and then stop diesel owners from entering their areas.
The discussed federal solution would be that the Berlin federal folks would support counties and cities who want to introduce free rides (meaning bus and rail)....within city limits.
Who would pay for this? Naturally, you'd sit and pause over this because SOMEONE must pay for the free rides. The taxpayer? Well.....yeah.
Nationwide, it's estimated that roughly 12 billion Euro are required each year to fund metropolitan networks (both bus and rail). Half of that comes from ticket sales, and the other half via the federal government. To some extent, you would be correct to say that travel is already subsidized, at least half-way.
A true solution?
I sat and paused over this idea. If you said that no diesel cars could enter Frankfurt city limits....you'd be talking about at least 100,000 vehicles....maybe even going up to 200,000 vehicles....per day. So you'd have to have parking established on the outer boundary of the city. You can figure a minimum of twenty massive parking lots. Then you'd have to add the capability between 7AM and 9AM....to haul an extra 100,000 folks minimum....maybe an extra 200,000 folks. In effect, I would suggest doubling the whole railway network within Frankfurt for morning and evening rush-hours.
How many more trains to be added? Just in Frankfurt alone, you'd be talking about twenty minimum. More buses? Yes. Probably over a hundred additional buses to make something like this work.
All free? Well, then you'd come to the parking situation and ask....will parking be free? Right now....NO. You pay some small weekly or monthly fee for your car. You can figure that parking will be some fee-based deal.
Public acceptance? Once they figure out that they have ante up another couple hundred a year in taxation...it'll become a harsh reality and some Germans will ask about the future.
Could the nation cover this cost factor? I don't think you'd be talking about 12 lousy billion Euro. I would suggest the amount would double up to around 20-to-24 billion Euro per year....easily.
Taxation? You'd have to invent another tax and let everyone participate in this deal....figure at least 500 Euro per year....per adult minimum. I would have doubts that an extra 500 Euro on taxation would be enough.
Inventing a bigger mess? If you've ever traveled in rush-hour in Hamburg or Frankfurt....you tend to notice the system really maxed out, as things are today. So suggesting another one-third more travelers....maybe even 50-percent more travelers? It just makes me wonder what idiot would dream up a scheme like this? If you had twenty years and built other networks....light-rail lines....engineered great off-ramps for parking, and massive stations on the outskirts of cities....maybe this would all work. But I have my doubts that you could whip this up in a year or two.
A bigger mess coming? Yes.
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