Attacker Observation

 Yesterday, the German Federal Minister of the Interior (Seehofer, CSU) had a chat with the N-TV news folks.  He put out an obvious thing about the terror attack situation from Wurzburg.  

When all the smoke had cleared and the police had their round of initial investigation....here was this odd fact about this Somali guy.  

Since arriving in 2015.....the guy had lived in three areas (regions) and for the entire period (7 years), he'd lived in homeless shelter arrangements.  He'd never gone past that point.

No one in the integration business, or social office ever seeing this and noting a negative trend?  Well....that's the suggestion.

The problem, if you drill down into it....this Somali guy probably arrived with a mental disorder, and no one ever questioned it or spent time with the guy to suggest a visit to a mental health clinic.  They just arranged the paperwork....had him sign, and processed the guy onto the next point in life.  The fact that a 25-year-old guy doesn't get put into a mandated job-training program or have a regular job?  This fact kinda stands out.

How many refugees/immigrants fall into this category?  Unknown.  I'm guessing some data collection will take place over the next year, and several hundred folks like this will be identified.  But even if you identify them.....then what? Forced participation in some mental health program?  

All of this brings me to a curious thought....what if this guy with mental issues hadn't gone off to attack the women?  What if he'd just been quiet and smiled.....doing nothing (no work), for the next forty years while living in the homeless shelter?  Would anyone have noticed or done anything to counter that?

Vaccination Chatter

 I noticed this morning via N-TV (German commercial news) that the Green Party and FDP Party are discussing the leveling off of vaccinations, and they both think appropriate action is now required.

What exactly?  Well....they think incentives and what I'd call increased 'propaganda'.  

One idea was to have a vaccination center set up in a amusement park, and offer entry for those who get vaccinated.  As for what amusement park would sign up for 'duty' like this?  Unknown.  Most people would probably laugh over such an offer.

Getting more people hyped-up for the vaccination via the news or chatter?  The national number for vaccinations is around 55-percent, and the original 'hope' was that they would get 'herd-immunity' at around 65-percent.  You get the impression that 65-percent is now not enough, and it needs to be closer to 80-percent.

My humble belief is that one out of three Germans will probably say 'no' and decline the vaccination (at least until they get forced into it).  

Green Party, Baerbock, and Plagiarism

 Annalena Baerbock is the Chancellor candidate for the Green Party.  Back in December/January timeframe, I would have given her a better than 50-percent chance of winning the election in September.  Things have changed, and this week....a new problem arose with her, over a book she wrote ("Now.  How to Renew Our Land").

Publish date?  21 June 2021.....so it just came out. 

An Austrian plagiarism 'hunter' went through the publication and found a number of lines/items, which were not attributed.  The book is around 240 pages long, and the suggestion is that a fair number of problems exist.  

Why her publisher didn't run the book against a plagiarism software deal?  Unknown.....you'd think they would have done that.

Did she write the whole thing herself?  Well....the story goes that way,  but it  wouldn't surprise me five or six folks gave her some material, and they never did the attributing work themselves.    

A big deal?  The German intellectual crowd makes a big deal out of plagiarism. You can quote others as long as you cite them in some way....beyond that, it's not your personally produced material.  

Enough to harm her Chancellor chances?  At this point, the Greens are somewhere between 16 and 19 percent in the polls.  I would suggest a two to three point drop over the next month, and the SPD/FDP folks probably get those points.  

Enough for her to drop out entirely?  Maybe, the Greens have a decent number two ready to step in, and it might not be so crazy.  

The odd thing to me is that if you were publishing a book in these times....most companies would run a plagiarism software against it.  These guys apparently didn't do that.  It just seems odd.

Was the Wurzburg Terror Event a Jihad Situation?

 Well....it's still under debate.  ARD (German public TV, Channel One) carried a good news piece today to talk over this.

So, there are some witnesses at the scene who said that the Somali guy (24 years old) uttered the AA-phrase.  Not all of the witnesses said that though.  

In the police interrogation that followed the attack, the guy did say some comment to his jihadist feeling.

His cellphones (two of them)?  Cops are still reviewing data and won't say much over them.

The material that is ISIS related in the paper bin at the shelter?  It adds to the discussion.

The general view of people who knew the guy?  They wouldn't give him high marks on being sane.  It's entirely possible that you have a nutcase who fell into the jihadist business, and it was the 'answer' to all of his problems in life.  So in effect, you had a unbalanced guy who can't rationally grasp the value of information given to him.

The fact that he was on the deportation list?  Well.....if you were mildly unbalanced, and under extreme pressure to leave....you'd probably notice your behavior getting more and more irrational....as each day passed.  

I have no doubt....the judge in this situation will order a mental exam, and I seriously doubt that he can pass.  If you'd been standing around as a judge in 2016 (the guy arrived in 2015) and ordered a mental exam then?  Well, you might have found out that the guy was not competent to allow in some free and open space.  But that's generally not how the system works.....you only get mental exams after you've done something pretty crazy or pretty stupid.

The mess left here?  For the September election....someone has to stand there and hold the 'asshole-card', and explain how the guy got on the deportation list, and how no one saw him as a threat.  That's the sad part to this story. 

E-Car Story

 German car-maker Audi came out pretty strong, and said 2026 is the last year they will make a car with gas or diesel engines.  They intend to go on with battery E-cars from that point on.

The end?  

If you go and look at enthusiasm for the E-car....there was a poll at the beginning of 2021....where 64-percent of Germans would at least consider the purchase of an E-car.  36-percent said 'no' to the E-car idea.  The key term in this polling question...."consider".  

I might also be a 'consider' person, but then you have the amount of time required for charging.....limited charging stations around the country....an entire day required to change out batteries with an unknown but hefty cost factor....and the general cost of electricity in Germany being substantially more than most all other European countries.  Yeah, there's a lot to be suffering through, and it's just not a pleasant experience.

I sat and listened to a German give his humble view (engineering background), and he pointed out this one serious problem....once you put forty-odd power-use items on a car (like your stereo, your AC, your heat, your lights, power seats, blinkers, etc)....each item and its use...drains the battery.  A simple day in July heat, with the AC running full-power?  

I went looking for data.  If you run an E-car, the optimal temp is 21.5 C/70 F.  The advice given is that if you get into a minus-15 C/5 F situation, your typical range of 400 km.....goes down to 217 km.  Serious winter period and operating the E-car?  You probably aren't going into the Alps for a ski-trip. 

Hot summer drive to Italy, or Spain?  Same issues.  

So I'll go out on the limb and predict that around 2028....Audi is standing there with a much smaller work-force, and in the midst of a harsh sales campaign with their E-cars....unable to really dig themselves out of this pit.  

The other car-makers?  Same story. 

This will be an interesting era to live through and see how the car-makers/politicians survive.  

Was the German Red Army Faction (RAF) Communistic?

 I saw this question pop up several months ago, and I've spent a couple of hours going back over the 1970s/1980s period....to look at the terror group that existed.

So, what you can say is that they were initially educated and given a fair amount of propaganda....to believe they were on a anti-fascism 'mission' (purpose in life), and they opposed the fascist government of West Germany.

The suggestion of them being anti-imperialistic?  Well....maybe in their hearts, they still felt the old Kaiser government (gone since 1918) or it's elements, were lingering.  

Being Maoist?  Typically it means you have large groups and threaten with some type of insurgency (maybe armed, maybe unarmed).  The key feature is that you want to bring dynamic change which can't occur with the normal republic type situation/process.

As for the Communist angle?   Most of what you'd say from a couple of their 'letters', is that they were in the belief that life was unfair, and that the economic platform was hurting the under-class.  The fact that the German (West German) under-class didn't see them as Robin Hood-like creations?  That's just one of the odd things about why they didn't achieve a lot of success other than assaults and murders.  

Social Media Story

 If you watch N-TV news in Germany this morning, there's this one odd story.  

Basically, the German Federal Data Protection Commissioner (Ulrich Kelber) stood up and said that the German federal government needs to "shut down" their Facebook pages.

Reason?  Data-protection is not guaranteed. 

Kelber says changes need to occur, and it doesn't appear that Facebook wants to go that direction.

Odds of this happening?  Pretty much zero.  The government admits....this is the only way to get information out to the public (or at least they believe that).

How many folks are signed up as 'friends' of the government?  Well...N-TV says around a million (out of 83-million people in Germany).

Looking at the 'friend' list....there would seem to be an awful lot of people who don't view the government's policy or news bit....via Facebook.

Health Insurance Bucket Short?

 Well....what MDR (public TV) said today....the general expectation had been a shortfall of 7 billion Euro.  They increased to 15 billion Euro as of this morning.  Where it'll come from?  Tax revenue bucket for now.

Higher health insurance coming in 2022?  Well, you kinda have a choice....either higher rates, or your donate toward the fund via your tax status.  It'll be the new government in September who determines the 'path'.

Another Attack?

 This morning (Monday)....around 6 AM, in Erfurt (eastern side of Germany)....this guy attacked two German guys (late 60s, mid 40s).  Both had wounds, but were not seriously cut.

Attacker?  Mid-30s description, spoke perfect German.  

Police spent a couple of hours looking around (based on the description) and found the guy (32 years old).  What they say?  He's known by the police (meaning he has a record), and he's had mental problems in the past.  So no radical religious stuff....just plain mentally disturbed.  

Frankfurt Tunnel Story

 Back in 1978, I came to be introduced to the Frankfurt Bahnhof (railway station).  To me, it was one of the most fascinating structures on Earth.  You had the huge station itself, and then the subway complex underneath it.  

This morning, news out of Frankfurt indicates that they are about to go and add onto the station....by building another deep tunnel underneath the subway tunnel....making it a long-distance transit point.  

Cost?  Well....at this point, they are hinting at 3-billion Euro for the deep-station and the additional tunnels to be built.  Odds of it running into issues and going up to 5-billion or more?  I'd give it better than a 50-percent chance.

How deep under the station?  They suggest 115 feet.

Starting in the early 1960s and going to the mid-1970s to wrap up....the subway system of Frankfurt is remarkable.  

The need for the additional tunnels?  Frankfurt has grown to a great extent, and a lot of the people who work in Frankfurt.....live way beyond the 'shadow' of the city.

As for when this project would be done?  No one says much over that.  

New Covid Rule Coming?

 Over the weekend in Germany, there's been this chatter going on of a new German  Corona-ban rule.  The deal?  Well....there would a list of countries with hype going on about infections.  So any German traveling to those countries and returning.....would face a new ban rule.

You'd arrive at the airport in question and be directed to test for the virus.  This is not the quickie-test but the PCR-test.   You'd then leave and go home to participate in a self-quarantine....five days.  Then you'd go to your local medical facility and do another PCR-test.  

Financial cost?  Well....first, there's this five days of leave which you'd have to figure into your leave schedule and you'd be giving up a minimum of three days of leave in this mess.  The average PCR test?  It's between 50 and 75 Euro.  So you could be talking about 150 Euro coming out of someone's pocket (even if it's the government pocket, it's really your tax revenue paying for it).

The decision to force this issue?  It would appear they are waiting for more hype of another 'wave' before they press on with this issue.  

The curious thing....you could plan this great vacation to Crete, knowing six weeks prior to the trip that no serious Covid situation was there, and mid-way through the two weeks of your vacation....discover that Greece moved up on the virus list and is now considered a threat area.  So your return to Germany is a bit 'sour', and now you have to look at your leave time and how you got forced into five additional days of 'vacation-quarantine' in Germany.  

Jail Story

 It's not front-page news, and probably not going to be mentioned much over German public TV....but the Interior Ministry (run by a CSU politician)....has this draft plan of getting Syrian criminals in German prisons/jails out.  

The basic story?  There are x-number of Syrians who've done something to get time in German jails.  The Interior Ministry wants a policy that if you'd sign documentation and agree to return to Syria....they'd let you out, and fly you into Syria.

Now, I will admit....there's nothing on the books currently to make 'deal-making' like this legal.  And how they get back to Syria is a big question-mark.  I kinda doubt that Syria will openly accept these folks....without some kind of cash involved.  

The chief problem?  Well....the coalition partner (the SPD) isn't happy about deal-making like this, and the opposition parties are likely to raise a fuss as well.

How many would accept the deal?  That's another big unknown.  You might only find forty-odd folks who think it's worth accepting the pardon and re-location.

If you were to openly discuss this with working-class Germans?  I would take a guess that more than half of them would readily agree that it's a workable idea. 

The odds that this will come up in the coalition process after the election?  I'd give it 90-percent odds that it's going to be in the one-hundred topics of discussion. 

Disco Story

 If you were a successful owner of a German dance-hall or disco in 2019.....you've been looking at business operations over the past 18 months, and probably in a serious amount of depression.  The Covid business has pretty much destroyed your 'plan'.  

This morning, I was watching a piece off N-TV (commercial news in Germany), and they got to a chat over a politician in Rhineland Pfalz (a state in the SW of Germany)....where he wants to force everyone into the line of vaccination (including the skeptics).  So he brings up discos/dance-halls.  

The chief discussion he draws upon (this is the state health minister)....you shouldn't be allowed into a dance establishment without a vaccination slip.

Acceptance of this suggestion?  It's hard to predict.  

While the national numbers say currently.....they've accomplished around 50-to-55 percent, some indicators exist to say it's starting to reach a peak, and it may peak at 65-to-70 percent.  

For the dance-hall/disco folks....they might look at this idea and get worried that half of their 'clients' will be skeptics.  If you return to business, and see only 50-to-60 percent of the 2019 profits.....for some, it'll be a hard reality that they can't accept.

What's likely to start up?  If you made a rule like this....I'd expect a number of no-name start-up guys to find a wooded area....bring in a catering truck and speak-set-up, and just run an illegal dance situation.  

A national policy?  Don't go expecting the impossible.  This will turn into a state-by-state mess.  

Polling Story

 There's a Insa Institute poll out this morning over the election situation for September's national election here in Germany.

The CDU-CSU folks? Around 28-percent.

The Greens?  Sitting at 19-percent.

The SPD?  17-percent and rising.

The Linke folks?  7-percent.

AfD?  11-percent.

FDP at 12-percent.

If it were to stay around this level?  While the CDU-CSU team might win, the coalition business gets to a more difficult process....where they'd have to partner with the FDP and SPD-or-Green Party.  This four-group coalition would be hard to hold together.  

The Way You Move Up in a German Political Party

 On day one, you walk down to your village or town's pub where x-party is having a meeting.  This could be a village of 500 people and the SPD group is composed of 32 paying members (in the German system, if you want to have your say or participate....you pay into the pot, thus attending the meetings).  

So you walk in....get registered, and get a party 'card'.  Then you begin to mingle in the pub.  Everyone is having a beer, wine, or soda.  Things are fairly social...people are chatty.

The head guy opens up the meeting....talks over party topics, and various members get a chance to offer commentary.  An hour passes, and the meeting starts some closure pattern.  

Maybe you impressed a couple of folks on your first meeting, and as a new person....you got some immediate 'status'.

Months go by, and maybe half the crowd at the meeting are fairly supportive of you because of your logic, conversational topics, or 'charm'.

You don't necessarily have to be a junior version of 'Winston Churchill' or a up-and-coming JFK.  

At some point, a year or two down the path....a vote comes up for the next village 'boss' of the party and you get nominated, and then elected.  Then you get invited to the district meetings....where you mingle, talk over things with others, and if you were popular....you'd get set up for elections there.  

You might engage in local politics (for mayor or city council), or you might avoid that angle and just skip responsibility situations.  

I bring all of this up because of the Green Party episode in the Saarland with Irina Gaydukova.  

In her case....around twenty-odd years ago, she left the Ukraine and settled in Germany.  Around 2018, she joined the Green Party.  There's not a lot said over her initial year or two.  In the past six months, her career in the local Green Party took off, and she moved up to a fairly high level in the Saarland Green Party apparatus. In the past month, she was voted up to the number two level (deputy chair-person) for the state group.

I should state this fact....over the past five years....almost all of the parties have been stressing that women need to be in key roles of the functions.  In fact, it's almost a 50-50 rule.....that women must be shown in leadership roles.  It doesn't mean you are really into politics, or capable.....just that women have a vital role in party politics. 

I kinda suspect that this played a role in Irina's progress.

Irina is fairly educated (has a degree in business management), and I would imagine that maybe if she'd been in the Green Party for 20 years, she'd know the script.

But after getting the deputy job....the party dragged her to a Q and A public media session.  It didn't go well.  She didn't really have any script in her mind, and everything came across as 'blonde answer'.

I kinda suspect that she was expand her social circle and saw the local political party business as a chance for that.  She probably did well in the chat moments, and people were impressed with her general knowledge.  Was she 'hard-as-nails' on environmentalism?  I doubt it.  Had she attended protests?  I kinda doubt that.  

After this all came out....the national apparatus for the Greens went and demanded that she step down....which she did.  

What's curious about this whole event and the way it occurred?

A blonde tall gal with some brains and able to memorize the script for the party positions....could join up and move up the ladder in the village, the region, and the state....in a matter of five years. You could run for Bundestag membership and make the big adventure into Berlin (with the big boys).  Three or four years pass, and you might be considered for some minister's position or even as a Chancellor candidate.  

All of this worthy of a movie script?  That's how I view this Irina story.  

"Totally Crazy"

 I sat and read through a Focus update on this Wurzburg attack business, and the Somali guy involved this morning.  

They did some interviews around the 'home' where this guy (homeless shelter with individual rooms for people) lived.  

So this one guy was interviewed.....he'd had one single conversation with the suspect.  He described the Somali guy as "abnormal".  His conversation topics, his train of thought....all a bit strange.

More conversations between the two?  No.  According to this guy....once you establish someone is a bit crazy, you tend to avoid them.  

So the interview continues, and this guy (he is a migrant as well)....harps on the obvious issue...that when some guy goes out and attacks people....he is making a more rough path for others in the same category.  The guy then added....the police should have removed the Somali guy from Germany (via deportation I assume) much sooner.

Direct quote from the guy on his 'neighbor'?  "Totally crazy".

When people arrive in Germany (it's been that way since the surge in 2013)....there is no mental exam.  I went through the visa application business myself and figured there would a physical/mental exam as part of the entry process, but no, nothing.  

What'll happen to this guy?  I expect some judge to mandate a mental exam (figure 30 to 60 days to accomplish this).  If he is judged to be mentally incompetent?  The judge will have to figure a path on handling the guy.  Deportation now?  It's hard to figure if that will occur.  But if you sent him off to a mental facility....he'll be regarded as a threat (for the rest of his life).  

Three Other Odd Aspects of that Wurzburg Terror Attack

 Regarding the Somali guy and his business yesterday (I blogged early this AM), there's 3 issues that came up.

1.  Cop went to his room at the homeless shelter.  Nothing much to look at....then went to the paper bin out back....yeah, right there on top....ISIS material.  Odds that it belonged him?  Unknown.  Just Odd, I'll say.

2.  The fact that he applied for asylum back in 2015/2016?  Well....he failed the application.  

Bavarians (the gov't) say that he failed but won't say when.  It might have been in 2016, 2017, 2018, or 2019.  

3.  The fact that he mostly attacked only women?  Well....it's just odd.  

The conversation that the police had with the guy....he's chatty about his religion business.  So one way or another, it'll be deemed a Islamic attack....even if he was paranoid schizophrenic.

This brings me to a final point.  Once you hand the asylum application over.....the Germans fail to grasp this point.  Your whole life and path ahead....is depending on them passing you.  Most all of these people get highly emotional when five months pass, and it comes back as a 'failure'.  Germans don't understand this.....all that effort, the risk on the boat, and the months of waiting.....these people can't accept a failed asylum application.

Will this affect the September election?  I'd say that the AfD Party will talk about this and the failure of the Bavarian government to send the guy out of the country.  There might be a point or two going up....for the AfD.  

If he sat there for four years after getting a failed application?  The Bavarians doing nothing?  Well....politically, someone will have to take a fall for letting this occur. 

Another Funny Story

 So RBB (Berlin public TV) told the basic facts to this story here in the AM.

There's this refugee/migrant help-network called "Berlin Hilft".  It's safe to say that they have noble thoughts and probably were 99-percent legit in their eyes.

So they had this website which was the primary angle of delivery for information about their agenda and topics.

They decided to pay the folks running the web site....40k Euro (roughly 48k US dollars) a year.  Now, from my past background.....I would readily say that 40k Euro is a fair sum of money but that's what it would cost for full-time guy to update and keep things going.

Naturally.....if you are a government entity....you need to have a bill system, and track hours.  You'd identify some idiot in your group to monitor the progress or work done.  

The reason to monitor?  Well....one day, an audit will occur, and you don't want some crazy audit guy accusing you of something illegal.

Well....that day came in Berlin.

From the start-up in 2017 to summer of 2020....40k Euro a year went automatically to the group, without any paperwork to say what was done.  Embarrassing?  I would imagine it's pretty stressful for the naïve folks here.

A minimum of 120k Euro went out....for something....you just aren't sure of what.

Resolving this or getting the money back?  No....the time business expired.

An example of poor business-qualified people?  Yeah.....folks who deal with contractors typically know that some recognition of work has to occur, and it doesn't have to be a big mess of monitoring.  You keep a yearly folder and meet with the contracted crowd once in a while....keeping emails of projects/updates, and you simply keep evidence for a possible audit.

Is it possible that other than creating the original web-site....this worker never put more than three hours a week into the maintenance?  Well....yeah, that's probably a possibility.  You probably wouldn't want to mention that angle of the situation.  

At one point in my life, I worked with a guy who had such an update 'job'....which was supposed to be forty hours a week.  He admitted to me one day.....at the beginning of each day....for about an hour, he worked, and for the remaining seven hours a day....he read science fiction novels (a lot of them).  No one monitored the guy or the value of his work.  I see the same management style here in this Berlin case. 

Odd Starting Point of the Wurzburg Attack

 Well....this Somali guy started his mess at Woolworths. 

Yes, at Woolworths.

He was in the household area, and examining kitchen knives.

He lingered, asked questions over the knives, and selected one.....then his attack started there in the kitchen knife area of the store.

The defensive posture of Germans?  It started there in the store.  Some were killed by the Somali.  Some were just wounded.  But a fair number of folks picked up items from the store, and went into action to delay the guy until the cops could come and 'take care of business'.

The 'Language-Police' War

 Quietly, and mostly avoiding the identification of language shifts in German society, there is a 'war' brewing.  

Having sat through literally a couple hundred hours of German language....I came to a point to realize that there are barriers and 'guardians' who watch over the German language....hour by hour....to safeguard what will be normal or accepted.  

The Duden?  It's the holy book of the language.  If the rule or use idea is not in the Duden....then it's not official.

With all this talk in 2021 over gender topics....it's finally reached the stage of discussion in the Bundestag.  

You basically have three politicized groups existing.

First, there is the pro-side, who want gender topics picked up and changes to occur (Greens, SPD, Linke Party).  Second, there are the AfD Party who is fairly negative about gender topics (oddly enough).  Third, there are the FDP and CDU-CSU who are just trying to keep this whole mess from exploding or becoming a top ten subject.

If you asked working-class Germans?  Out of their top 500 problems?  It doesn't rate anywhere in the 500 subjects.  Affordable housing, safety on the streets, clean parks, no Covid-ban-rules, taxes.....these all rate as real issues.  Gender terms?  No.

So there is a 'war' brewing, and you can't readily predict where this will go after the September national election.

Could the political side and Duden-side go hand-in-hand?  No.  The Duden folks are fairly dedicated to intellectualism and keeping the language along a particular path/trail.  Just having the Bundestag pass some law and insist on control of the language....probably won't work.

So in 2022, if you were looking for a curious 'fight' coming in....I'd rate this as a top ten issue, with no real solution.  

Just Amusing

 It won't be page one news, and I doubt that ARD or ZDF will ever mention this story.  

Out of Saarbrucken (far west state of Germany), this gal rose up in the local Green Party.

Description?  Blonde, attractive, 52 years old, employed, and hyped-up to be in politics.  (note: I always feel positive about folks who work and pay taxes...even if they are crazy or acting 'blonde').

Oddly enough, because there's not a big presence of the Green Party in Saarbrucken....she got party members hyped-up enough and they were putting her on the ballot for the September election, and possibly going onto Berlin as a Bundestag member. 

Then, this week, a Q and A occurred in front of a camera.  She knew absolutely nothing about the Green Party, it's agenda, or the top couple of topics.  Zero.

In a matter of hours, the Green Party at the national level got involved, and worked up a plan to dump her.

Locals in Saarbrucken?  I suspect they still like her.  I watched the video, and I'd describe her as a Marilyn Monroe-dumb blonde type....but she actually does well in presenting herself.  To be honest though, I think she would have done better with the CDU Party....by knowing little to nothing about the agenda business.  

Ten Observations Over Wurzburg Attack (Yesterday)

 1.  A 24-year old Somali guy attacked (with a fair-sized knife) several folks on the street, near the train station.  Three dead (one was a young boy), and around ten wounded.

2.  Attack was delayed by Germans who took on the Somali (with chairs, umbrellas, broomsticks).  Cops then arrived, and shot the guy in the leg after they warned him to drop the knife (he refused).  Yes, it was one of those rare cases where the cops aimed at the guy's leg....hit it, without accidentally shooting bystanders.  

3.  Nutcase or drugs?  This is near the Bahnhof and having been there three years for a all-day walk....I might go and suggest drug activity around the station.  But you could make the case that x-number of migrants (not just in Germany) have arrived with paranoid schizophrenia issues (some minor, some major). 

4.  Terror act?  So far, zero indications of this.   Cops readily suggest this now....just a nutcase.  

5.  Oddly, the Somali has lived in Germany for five years....almost exclusively at the homeless shelter in Wurzburg.  Focus said that they talked to cops and the guy had been recommended to a local mental clinic last week (hint of him acting pretty weird).  

Typically, as a migrant, you go through a process.  There's the immigrant center, then you get to some point where they assign you a process of German language/integration, then onto job training, and the city helps to get you into a studio apartment.  If this story is true about him being long-term at the homeless shelter....it might suggest that he was not competent enough to 'move on'.

6.  All of this occurred around 5 PM....as workers were heading home, so more people were on the street at the time.

7.  The shot Somali?  Taken to the hospital.....he's wounded but ok.  Police aren't saying much....probably an official statement on Monday by the Bavarian government. 

8.  Yes, the guy did yell 'Allah Akbar' at some point in the attack, and this was heard by more than one German.  I won't lessen that fact, but you have various nutcases in Germany who self-radicalize themselves and their mental decline helps them attach to this. 

9.  One odd aspect, around 9 PM....ZDF (Channel Two, out of Mainz) did a short update on this attack.  Six years ago, this would have been forbidden by the network management people.  

A lot of news dynamics have changed, and the public networks (both ARD and ZDF) are under pressure to report these incidents now.  

10.  So this whole thing....about a migrant guy who arrived with mental issues, and just lingered on....living out of a homeless shelter, and never proceeding on in life?  Yeah, that's the whole basic story. 

How many immigrants/migrants arrived since 2013 in this mental situation?  It's anyone's guess.  Might be a dozen....might be a hundred....might be a thousand.  And on any given day....something might spike their behavior enough to buy a knife and kill a few folks on the street.  

Old History: Swiss Eritrean guy, summer of 2019, pushing three individuals onto a Frankfurt track (killing one kid).  This gentlemen had been in Switzerland for over a decade, and had been considered one of the big integration successes.  Two years prior to the incident, he was also noted with paranoid schizophrenia issues.  

Terrorist Arrested

 Kehl police (just across the border from France, and in the SW part of Germany) reacted today to a tip and arrested a French guy who'd come across the border to buy a gun for terrorist activity.

What the cops say....young guy (21) had interest in a semiautomatic rifle and he had some connection to an Islamic group.

In the grab, they also got his cellphone.

Petition Story

 I've essayed a bit over the affordable housing issue in Germany, over the past couple of years.  

Another development came up this week.  A petition is going around Berlin....currently at 343k signatures (7-percent of the public there) to 'expropriate the commercial housing ownership, and put the residences/buildings back under the city (recreating public housing authority)'.

By city regulations.....they needed 175k signatures....so they passed that level.  But at the same time, with some review....there's a suggestion that one-third of signatures are from non-Germans....so they won't count.  

Next?  Some judge will review all of this and either accept the legit signatures or throw this out.

If it comes to a vote?  Well...it creates a massive mess.

If you use the law for expropriation, you have to compensate the losing owner.  The often discussed amount required?  18 billion Euro (21 billion dollars)., if you went for all houses meeting this condition.

Where the money resides?  That's an amusing question....the city doesn't have this type of money just laying around.

Also, once you borrow the money.....the reduced rent payments wouldn't give you the capital to pay for renovations or pay off the loan.

Chaos coming?  More or less.  

People walking around and thinking that they can expropriate property and not compensate the owner?  Yeah......there's a lot of that behavior being shown.

Medical Cost Going Up

 For those who may not be aware of it.....a minimum of 300,000 non-German 'temp' workers are brought in yearly (maybe drifting up to 600,000 at times) to help manage nursing requirements for hospitals and retirement homes.

Their pay-level?  By the time that things are figured out and their 'agency' takes a cut....the person is making below minimum wage (at Germany rates).

So the Federal Labor Court of Germany had this case come through and this week......they said the system is 'unfair'.

The workers have to make minimum wage (period).

What happens now?  The cost factor at retirement homes and hospitals....has to go up.  No one is saying how much though.

An affect on the regular consumer, and the healthcare insurance?  I would imagine that by early 2022....a whole big mess will open up and discussions will start up over the new chaos of finding the extra money.  

Covid Testing Path Ahead?

 If you look around Germany.....in general, Covid-19 'quickie-testing' is rapidly becoming less important, and it's being done at a much lower rate now.   The odds of it going away entirely?

Well...if you look at political chatter...there's some talk going on that if you don't get vaccinated, the politicians want the test mandate (regular basis) to continue.  Ability to force this issue?  It goes hand-in-hand with the vaccination digital record.

The boss of the RKI Institute has openly said that they support continued testing (period) to be open and conducted through the spring of 2022.....for everyone.

Current vaccination rate in Germany?  Around 52-percent.  It's anyone's guess where it will level off (probably in August).  If you look at trends and numbers, they ought to easily hit 65-percent or more.  I doubt that it goes past 80-percent.  

Expression of Opinion

 Within Article 5 of the Basic Law (the German Constitution)....you are guaranteed freedom of expression: "Everyone has the right to freely express and disseminate his or her opinion in words, writing and images and to learn from generally accessible sources without hindrance. Freedom of the press and freedom of reporting through radio and film are guaranteed. Censorship will not take place."

Well...some polling was done (it's done yearly on this topic)....asking Germans if they felt secure about expressing their opinion.  Usually the vast majority said yes.  This year (this is via a Focus article)....via the poll of the Allensbach Research Institute....45-percent of people responded that 'no, they aren't able to express their opinion freely'.

Around 44-percent said they were cautious in how they responded in public....meaning they might hear something they object to, but because of public pressure, media pressure.....they can't say much.

I suspect if you asked the same group about the topics that they avoid....it wouldn't be just one or two.....but in general...a number of things that you just skip around or avoid talking to anyone except your closest friend, or spouse.  

Topics of conflict?  Refugees, crime, politics, cost of living, taxation, expansion of towns/villages, Covid-ban-rules, quality of schools, the environment, etc. 

The fear of returning to the 1932 type of environment where you really didn't discuss anything with co-workers or neighbors?  We aren't at that point, but it wouldn't shock me if people started to make the comparison.  

That Police Story

 The state government of Hessen has spent a ton of time (man-hours) reviewing police in the Frankfurt area and their social messaging.  The initial hopes?  Well....they felt they'd caught a whole bunch of the folks (men and women) engaging in right-wing activity.  

So, all total....10,000 chats were examined (more or less).

Page by page.

What the Interior Minister of the state admitted today.....there were three messages that were within the view of the law as a 'problem', or in violation of German/Hessen law.  

Three?  Yes, three.

On a separate investigation....on a different message of sorts....9,000 messages had been examined....with 24 of them being a problem.

The bad boys?  It's a group of roughly 50 police (some federal, some state) who are in the situation.

At this point, he kinda admitted that a couple of the bad boys can't really be dealt with....because the chats were that old, and the state couldn't use the material because of the age.

So if you standing there, you'd be amazed at the amount of man-hours poured into this, and then realize.....there's really not much there except a whole lot of chatting (Twitter, Facebook, etc) which doesn't doesn't say much or do much.....illegal.

I would imagine some just commented back to a subject started by some guy....with 'LMAO', a happy face, or a Emjoi.  Even if the start-up topic was a discussion over some nutcase guy.....responding with a Emjoi probably can't get you any real bad-boy identifiers.

An amazing waste of front-page news?  Oh yeah.   That's the comical side of this.  HR (our regional public TV folks)....probably had twenty to thirty 'headliner' situations and interviews which were laying out all the bad stuff to come.  Then?  Kinda like arriving at a big party to find there is no booze, no food, and no music.

I sat and watched N-TV this afternoon cover the report, and just sat there amused over this whole thing.  Tons of time you could have spent on mafia or crime clans in the area, and this became some regional 'dump' on the police. 

Truth-Commission Wrap-Up

 The final report of the Breitscheidplatz incident in Berlin is delivered today.....all 2,000 pages.  This was the Christmas market attack in Berlin on 16 December 2016....where the terrorist killed 12 individuals.

Yes, it's taken five years to gather the data and publish this report.

ARD (public TV) discussed this at length, and it's worth a read.

All files handed over about the guy?  Well....no. That's openly mentioned in the product, and you have to wonder why.

At some point, the committee points out....around 40 different security or law enforcement groups exist (federal and state), and it's more than obvious that they don't work with each other.

Is it possible that they are just functioning within their empires, and not really concerned with the general public safety?  I sat and read the basic summary that ARD prepared.  It comes across that way.

Lesson learned?  I'm not that sure about that landscape.  

Did the terrorist have help in escaping?  Well....you reach a point where you have zero confidence in the official explanation.  

I personally think the idiot had no real plan, and he just walked away by himself.  But my belief rests at about a 99-percent point....meaning I still think there's a one-percent chance some idiot-friend picked this guy up and carried him to some other city to 'escape' to Italy.  

So this entire 'truth-commission' was a failure?  Yeah.  You probably knew just about all the facts on the 30th day after the terrorist died.  Five years of uncovering....revealed a marginal amount of truth.  

A Brief Description of Organisation Consul (O C)

 It's not exactly something that gets discussed much over German history.....but I'll give you a brief idea of their legendary status.

Once WW I closed out (November 1918), things fell into chaos around Germany.  The Soviet groups were starting to wage civil war, and for a brief period of roughly five months....Germany was on the verge of collapse.

So in the period of March/April 1919....one of the key things to 'save' Germany was the Marinebrigade Ehrhardt (Freikorps).  This was a group of militarily-trained German men (6,000 in number) that could be described as ultra-anti-communist.  Hyped-up on ultra-nationalism?  Absolutely.

After things stabilized in 1919...the Ehrhardt 'team' was more or less disbanded. 

Roughly a year later....they come back into being.  What you can say is that the Erhardt 'team' shifted around and became Organisation Consul (O C).   Purpose?  Well....this part is debatable and has various reasons given.  My description is that they served as a secretive unit which was anti-left, anti-Jew, and anti-Weimar Republic.  They saw themselves as protectors of the country.  

For 1920, 1921, and 1922....the published views suggest they killed at least 350 individuals....which they deemed as a threat to Germany.

Justified murders?  In a strange way, the O C folks created a court which reviewed charges and if execution was warranted....they sanctioned the business and passed judgement.

So, how did they come to an end?

They decided in the early summer period of 1922....that the Foreign Minister (Walther Rathenau, note: a Jew) was to be put on the execution list.  He was killed on 24 June 1922. 

Within days, a draft law was written up over the murder...referred to as the "Law for the Protection of the Republic." 

In simple terms, the government banned the O C (beginning on 21 July 1922).

The question which I've often pondered....did the O C just dissolve away, or did they go into a evolutionary state....evolving into the Nazi Party?  

If they had not disbanded O C?  Well...I might suggest that the Weimar Republic would have folded up by 1925/1926, with massive chaos and revolution.  

A five-star story for a movie?  Absolutely....but no one over the years has ever taken the story to that level.  

Autobahn Story

 Yesterday (Wed), we had the worst possible blockage on the local Wiesbaden autobahn area (A3 motorway).

What the cops say is that a tractor-trailer rig hauling batteries to a recycling point in Bavaria....caught fire.  

The truck pulled to the side, and this started a 90-minute complete closure to the Autobahn (both sides apparently).  Luckily, the fire guys arrived and were able to control the fire/smoke enough....putting it out, and leaving the truck capable of leaving the scene. 

Screwing up traffic?  The suggestion is that roughly 10 km of traffic was 'stuck'. 

Jail-Time

 About a month ago, I wrote an essay over a gal arrested for the protest here in Hessen....over the forest being cut to continue construction of the A49 autobahn.  

Because of the attacks on the police while the 'cutting' was taking place....she was arrested.  

Well...she didn't want to provide an ID of who she was.  German?  No....she has an accent (seen in interviews) and she's been held in jail the entire time since the arrest (7 months).  To this point, no one has any idea who she really is.

Today, the court episode ended....it appears she will get 2 years in prison.  

If she had just protested and avoided physical harm on the officers?  I doubt if she would have gotten any more than a fine.  

HR carries a decent update over the event.  

C02 Tax?

 This new C02 tax coming down in the next year or two in Germany?  You remember how I explained that the CDU-CSU and SPD folks were working on the deal that the tax would be split among the owner/renter....50-50?

You might also remember that I laid out that most owners did not want to pay on the tax, and most hinted that they'd raise rent....to compensate for this additional tax on them?

Well....today....the big deal came down, and the two groups could NOT get the deal done.  So the renter will pay the entire C02 tax themselves.  The owner/landlord is out of this mess.

Irking a number of Germans?  OH YEAH.

It'll be discussed for weeks, but in another ten days or so....the politicians all go off on summer leave, so they don't care.

Public view of the upcoming C02 tax?  Well....the news folks haven't polled anyone, and its hard to say that this is coming across positive right now.

Affecting the September election?  It ought to be talked about but it seems that most of the parties are all huddled under the tax umbrella and no one is really anti-tax.  

TV Chatter

 If you are one to be super hyped-up on German public TV....ARD and ZDF have finally consolidated their 'library' into one single unit (250,000 programs and movies).

So you can sit there and do video-streaming with their products....via your Tab, laptop or smart-phone/smart-TV.

A big deal?  Well, public TV in Germany can now say they have the functionality similar to Netflix.

The one benefit that I see?  To be honest....for about ten weeks in summer, virtually everything on public and commercial TV in Germany....are reruns.  I can truthfully say, over the past ten days, with the exception of soccer games.....the menu offered is 'crap'.  So I've used ARD's media library and Netflix a good bit.

As for this being a big deal for most Germans?  I'd say that around a quarter of Germans are currently NOT savvy enough to grasp the smart-TV functionality and they probably will never use it.  Probably forty-percent of Germans will tell you that there's nothing they see of interest in the 250,000 programs and movies.  

Green Math Doesn't Add Up

 There was a long drawn out science and energy piece on N-TV this morning.  I'll try to tell the story in twelve lines.

So the agenda in Germany is to have a ton of E-cars around by 2030, and 'green' power producing all the electrical requirements necessary.

There's some German scientists who sat down and did the numbers, and this week....they wrote a letter to the German government.

In simple terms, green-produced energy will NOT be able to provide the power necessary for the cars, industry, and homes....at the level advertised over the past decade.

If you were reviewing the landscape....what you'd say is that either you go and buy expensive dirty energy from France, Poland or Czech (lots of it), or you went and operated a lot of coal-powered German plants.  The possibility of nuke power coming back?  Well....that gets discussed in this news piece as well.

What'll happen now?  I would assume the pro-green-energy folks will try to analyze this more....probably agreeing that somewhere in their formulas....they screwed up.  

Resolving this?  I wouldn't expect anyone from the current political scene to volunteer to chat over this or the possible ways to fix the mess.  

Gayness, Soccer, and Politics

 It's an unusual story. 

So we are in the middle of the UEFA Euro 2020 games (I know, it's 2021, but because of Covid in the summer of 2020, it got pushed to 2021....so don't argue about this part of the story).

The folks in Munich got a couple of the games arranged there at the Munich Allianz-arena.  As stadiums go in Europe, I'd rate it a 5-star operation and fairly ultra-modern looking.

So around three days ago, the stadium made a decision that they'd specially light-up the arena....in rainbow colors. It's a gay statement (they even admit it).

This was as part of the build-up to the Germany versus Hungary game for Wednesday night (9 PM).

Politicians in Hungary stood up and said this was 'crap'....making this a political slam against them since they aren't ultra-supportive like the Germans on gay affairs.  

German news journalists rushed out and did polling....to basically say a majority of Germans were hyped-up positive about this.  

This decision on the rainbow lighting?  All done by the Munich city council (not the management folks of the stadium).

Well....things went 'south' this morning and the UEFA folks met.  They kinda agreed with the Hungarians, and said this was all political in context, and they weren't going to make the games into that type of 'circus' (my words, not theirs).  So the special lighting?  No, that's now forbidden.  

Done?  I doubt it.  There's probably going to be an hour on public TV news tonight....wasted on gaying-up the soccer game, and how this rainbow agenda fits into the world we live in. 

To drag this in?  Well....there's at least a thousand topics that folks would like to hype on their favorite agenda items, and once you start this....the game becomes less a game, and more about political agenda discussions.  

Protest Chatter

 This past Sunday, I spent a couple of hours in Wiesbaden...at a outdoor beer-garden.  We aren't at the zero point on Covid-ban-rules yet, but it was fairly simple to walk in and register our names and address.  Cold German beer followed, with an umbrella protecting from the sun.  

It was actually a pleasant deal except for one issue...a protest.

This was at the Marktplatz area, and a 'save-the-boat-people' group was holding a protest about 300 feet away.

Total number of attendees?  Probably in the sixty to seventy range (90-percent under the age of thirty).

Total number of police monitoring things and ensuring 'peace'?  Around seven. 

With the loud speaks and propaganda chatter....about an hour of the beer-garden moment was negative.  

The folks running this?  I got the impression they were all college types, and probably from the University of Mainz (across the river).  We don't have a college in Wiesbaden except the business college, and those kids aren't the type to protest much of anything.

Around forty minutes would pass after we sat down, and the protest shifted to a march....I assume from the Marktplatz to the train station.  

As for getting people hyped up and thrilled for the 'save-the-boat-people' situation?  Well....I'd give it a '2' on a scale of one to ten.  Maybe if you were a Green Party enthusiast....you might be hyped.  But the other 85-percent of society hasn't really felt that thrill of getting involved in this, or they ask a lot of questions which can't be answered.

As for these protests going anywhere?  No.  If out of a town of 293k residents....you only see 70-odd people standing there....it would be the same protest level of people complaining about sugar content of Jello, or folks protesting over gaudy dress/attire of women walking the streets of Wiesbaden.  

140 Page Story

The CDU-CSU folks met over the weekend and finalized their campaign promises.  Yes, 140 pages of material.

The journalists over at Channel One pointed this out, then they pointed an obvious thing....none of the promises have a money-count or amount by them.  So while these agenda promises may sound great....if they cost a ton of money, then it makes no sense.

I had a political professor (1980s) that said of every ten promises politicians make....the odds are that one of them will get passed (being helpful), and maybe two of them will be marginally passed (with no real benefit like you thought).  I kinda view this CDU-CSU business in the same way.

The promise on being climate-neutral by 2045?  Why not make it tomorrow, and just hand everyone a horse and buggy (taking away cars)?  

My question....what idiot journalist or voter would go and read the 140-page document?  Seriously....do you have three hours to read through some document like this and comprehend the promises?  There should be some national law....no more than twenty pages of promises during a campaign season....something that you can read in an hour.  

Just a Word of Warning

 In about ten days....this feature of Blogger where you subscribe and get an alert to a new essay/blog that I write....closes out.  The App folks are ending the service.  

No one says much over why....my humble guess is that they weren't making that much money from Blogger.

So, my suggestion....just make my page a hot-page on your browser, and everyday or two....pop over to read the newest and greatest (probably three or four essays), and develop a habit.  

Swedish Government Collapse?

 What you had today (Monday) was a vote of no-confidence for the Swedish PM.

The guy was from the Socialist Democratic Party (center-left) and this 'crisis' (if you want to call it that....was about one central issue...dumping rental control prices on newly built properties.

Everyone thought it as 'great' to have the rent controls, but it amusingly enough created this brand new problem....apartment construction went into a slow-down and housing slowed to a degree.  The obvious answer?  Well....normally, you'd think about the lack of homes and just toss out regulations.  That apparently got people all disturbed.

What's left?  The PM has a week to either form a new government (finding a new partner) or establishing a date for a new election.  Yes, there was a national election scheduled for the fall of 2022 (11 Sep).  

Where this might all lead onto?  Well....this housing 'crisis' doesn't appear to be fixable, unless the government pumps in tons of money to building housing on their own.  

The funny thing about this deal?  It's the exact same scenario going on in Germany today.  They haven't collapsed a government, but if you walk around Frankfurt, Berlin or Hamburg....it's the same issue.

Tapeworm Drug?

 I sat and watched this piece off N-TV here in Germany in the last hour, and it's an interesting twist on the Covid-19 virus.

Charité Hospital in Berlin, is one of the most noted hospitals in the world on research.  

So it's come out that they are testing the use of tapeworm against the virus.

The deal is this....you'd normally use this tapeworm drug niclosamide....which runs between 15 and 35 Euro (depending on which company makes it).  It's very effective on tapeworm.  

What they found was that there is this experimental cancer drug....which if you combine it with niclosamide....it reduces the production of infectious Covid particles by roughly 99-percent.  

This cancer drug?  MK-2206.  It's been around for a decade.  It was intended to be used when cancers reached a point where normal therapy drugs were not effective.  

Path ahead?  More research.  No one is saying this will be a produced therapy in 2021.  

First use of the tapeworm drug?  No....actually it was talked about in the summer of 2020 by a Danish team working on a Covid-19 product.  

The 500 Pound Guerrilla in the Room (How the AfD Changed Politics)

 I could probably make this a 500-page book/essay, but I'll limit it to fifty-odd lines.

The AfD Party, for those who aren't aware....in German politics.....didn't really exist prior to 2013.  When it was created....it was for one simple agenda....to dump the Euro and go back to the Deutsche Mark.  At that point, ten years into the Euro....it would have been safe to say that ten-percent of the German public probably agreed with the agenda.

In the summer of 2015, AfD radically changed.  They had a party meeting....fired a couple of the original folks, and added one primary agenda....stop/hinder immigration or migration into Germany.  At this point in time....with the chaos of the ISIS war in Syria and Iraq.....tens of thousands were 'walking' up through southern Europe and making their way to Germany.

Prior to this transformation, no one from the CDU, SPD, FDP, Linke Party or Greens really cared much for the AfD (they weren't a threat in their mind).  

After the transformation, it was like a lightning bolt striking a jet-fuel tank....with all hell breaking loose with the other parties.  They were all aligned to be pro-migration, and AfD was programmed to be the ONLY group against immigration.

In the 2017 federal election, AfD won 12.6-percent of the national votes....giving them 94 seats....which the other parties were fairly frustrated about each losing seats.

The amount of action taken by the Bundestag in the six months prior to the 2017 election?  Well....that's a story by itself.  You see....various little gimmicks had to be achieved.  This is where they suddenly found the cash to hire more police.  This where they suddenly suggested various ways to deport more individuals who were trouble-makers.  This was where avenues to enter the country were closed.  In simple terms....AfD forced moderate changes to occur.  If the parties had just remained on the same route.....the 2017 win would have been easily near 20-to-25 percent for the AfD Party.

The continued 'slam' against AfD?  There's not a week that goes by that the ARD or ZDF (public TV empires) get a four-star 'slam' accomplished.  Investigations going on against AfD?  No doubt.  But the huge pro-migration slant by the government is mostly tame and within reason at this point in time. 

AfD being far-right-wing?  There's no doubt that a couple of their big-time players are fairly far-out on the political stance platform.  

The frustration that AfD holds 90-odd seats?  I would imagine this is dragged up each week in Berlin and a number of political folks would like to find a way to push the AfD below 5-percent.  

All of this leading back to the Merkel issue of not settling migration?  More or less.  There are a hundred ways to admit the program was marginally run, and serious mistakes were made.  But no one really cares to revisit the 2015-2016 era.  So this leaves the 500-pound guerilla in the room.  

As for the path ahead?  AfD marginally has a platform on other issues.  If you asked me if this is a long-term party....I'd say no....they will eventually reach a point where the government clarifies its migration situation and there's public view of a problem decreasing in value.  I'd even make the suggestion that come the 2025 election.....they probably will be a 6-to-7-percent vote situation in that federal election.  At 4.9 percent or lower, they no longer have a standing in the Bundestag.

Me and Soccer

 I was introduced to soccer in a fairly comical way.  Around the 8th grade, our gym teacher decided in the winter period that we were staying indoors too much and introduced us to soccer.

Our introduction?  The instructor (Vietnam vet, early 30s) basically put four sticks up to market boundaries and used four additional sticks to mark two goal-posts.  The rules?  You could basically write them on a 3x5 inch index card, and took two minutes to get across to a group of 24 boys.

We divided up into two teams and I volunteered to be the goalie on x-team.  Roughly 25 minutes was left to play out our first attempt ever in the school at soccer.  

That ball?  From minute-one to the 25th minute....probably never moved more than fifty feet in the 25 minutes.  It was a crowd of 22 boys kicking in some massive huddle.  

I stood at the posts and admired the lack of movement and the frenzy of aimless kicking.  

For roughly two weeks, the practice was repeated, and the instructor eventually gave up on the attempt.  To be honest, I doubt if he'd attended a game in his life. 

Around a decade would pass, and I'd be assigned to the Ramstein area of Germany.  At some point in 1984, I got a ticket and actually attended a real game (there in Kaiserslautern).  So I had this chance to admire strategy and a bigger field.  Maybe as a kid, if we'd viewed an actual game and had a strategy understanding....things would have worked out better.

Today?  I probably watch around ten games of soccer a year via TV.  There's still a dozen things I don't readily grasp (like off-sides), and I admire the overly dramatic fake-injury business (something that the Italian players are five-star at).  

Linke Party Chatter

 There's been a Linke Party meeting, with the chief folks put in charge of the September election campaign business.  So if you browse around (public TV and commercial news)....the chief comment made is that the Linke Party has finally begun to lose voters.

The hype?  It leads back to a party that cannot really attract voters, and it's agenda program looks an awful lot like the SPD or Green Party agenda.

National polling?  Seven to eight percent.  In a couple of eastern states, they might trend toward 20-percent, but in western states.....it's fairly dismal.

Through a merger in 2007 (combining WASG and PDS parties)....the Linke came about and saw some great success in the first five years (hitting 12-percent in national voting at one point).

In 2013, the luck ran out.....8-percent came that year in the national election.

In 2017, the luck marginally fell back into play with 9-percent.  What you can say is that they created a theme that centered on urbanized areas in western Germany.

In 2020, there was a fair amount of hope that the Greens would have the numbers to win the election, and some left-left-left government would fall into place (with the Linke folks getting a ministry position or two).  Presently?  Pretty good odds that this won't occur. 

Going away?  No....but I'd say that their brand and theme both need a rebuilding process, and the national 'heads' who speak for the party.....probably aren't doing that great of a job.  

New Bridge Woes

 Wiesbaden has a reputation on bridges....mostly that they 'think' that they are keeping them up with maintenance.....then one day, you wake up and find that the bridge is in dangerous shape, and has to be shut-down.

So for the record, if you asked most folks from this community of 293k residents....there's five significant bridges (two autobahn, two railway, and one city route to Mainz).  But there is a sixth bridge....it just doesn't cross the Rhine. 

The Salzbachtalbrucke bridge is 310 meters long, and is the A66 bridge which crosses a valley area, and the exit on the area leads to a state-road getting you into Wiesbaden or into Biebrich (toward the river).  It's been around since 1963, and easily has 80-thousand-plus cars that pass over it every single day.  

So, around six years ago, the state had a renovation plan drawn up.  35-million Euro in the mix.  Traffic would be slowed down on the autobahn, and lanes would be limited.  

About two years into the project, it was discovered that the frame of the bridge....through work....had actually been damaged.  This triggered a fair amount of chaos, but it still stayed open.

Well...at some point on Friday of last week....someone was walking around the underside of the bridge, and there's obvious damage now.  Engineers came in, and it really unsettled them.....so the bridge and this part of A66's autobahn....was shut down.

So, there are three issues here.

First, this is not a weekend or month-long shutdown....they are now hinting at the very least.....weeks, and the odds are months long period where it will not be functional.

Second, everything on the A66 autobahn will be routed to cross the river into Mainz, and cross the Rhine again....to reach the other side of Wiesbaden (basically adding 30 minutes and tons of extra traffic to the route).

Third, underneath this 'broke' bridge was  a entry 4-lane road into Wiesbaden (what you could have driven from Mainz)....bringing you into the heart of the city.  That possibility is gone because they consider the entire area under the bridge to be unsafe.  Added to this....a rail 'spur' also went under the bridge....bringing long-distance trains into the Wiesbaden train station.  That probably is also thrown into the chaos (for weeks and months).

Third set of bridge woes in five years?  Yeah, that's really the big chunk of this story, and tens of thousands of locals use the bridge or the roadway/railway under it.....daily.  

Speed Discussion

 Last Sunday, I made a drive from Wiesbaden to Bad Durkheim.  It's roughly 118 km, and 90-percent is autobahn, with 10-percent of that either high-urban areas (meaning a speed limit of 100 kph) or under renovation (meaning a speed limit of 70 to 80 kph).

My general speed?  

Well....at various times with low traffic, I was cruising along at 160 kph (100 mph).

At some points, I did drift down to around 120 to 130 kph (around 80 mph).

Then at a couple of points, I just slowed down to 100 kph....mostly because of high density traffic.

All this chatter recently by the Green Party about a mandated speed limit of 130 kph or less on autobahns.....has very little science behind.  No statistics or data to make any case.

How many Germans actually travel at 130 kph or more? Unknown.  I personally doubt if you can prove that more than 10-percent of Germans are that aggressive on the speed limit

Can you even make a case that more than half of all Germans have gone over 130 kph a single time in their life?  No.

So all this hype about the speed limit might be a very marginal topic?  Unless you can establish data to prove the case.....that's really the problem with the entire discussion.

Chat Forum Shows

 For about a year, if you watched German public TV (ARD or ZDF), there's been NO live audience allowed in the studios for participation since Covid-19 started up.

Today, word came out....after the summer vacation period (end 23 Aug), live audiences will occur again.

Right in time for the election?  Yes.

Likely to stay?  If you ask my humble opinion, it'll last six to eight weeks, and then be deemed as a threat-situation with the virus.  

How many people usually showed up, before audiences were deemed non-essentiaal?  If you used most of the forum shows.....I'd say in the range of 100 to 200 people.  

The Frugal Agenda

 In the past year, I've probably watched a dozen news pieces on German public TV proclaiming a new 'ism'.....frugalism. 

A basic description?  Well....it used to mean living on your paycheck, and yet having a fair amount of income left to toss into savings, long-term investment or plan for your retirement.

In today's world, it means you are downsizing your needs in the home.  They will go through a 'closet' and note that you have around thirty t-shirts, a dozen pair of jeans, and maybe sixteen pairs of shoes.  The frugalism expert asks then how many worn just once or twice a year, to which you admit that half of your attire are marginally....if ever....worn..

Then they go into the kitchen....to ask about various items you have there, and identifying at least twenty items which get used one single time a year.

They eventually end up in your basement storage area or the garage, and get hyped about forty-odd things that you keep and use just once a year....like that stupid sleeping bag/tent which you drag out for a three-day weekend every two years, or that expensive telescope that your Uncle Benny left you and you drag it out one Saturday evening every four years. 

All of these things violate the general idea of frugalism.  I'm not saying it's wrong, but you end getting 'shamed' over holding these excess items.  I sat and watched one German woman get the shame-deal over twenty-odd pair of shorts that she had in the cabinet.....which some of them even dated back twenty years ago.  

How successful this 'ism' is going?  It's in the initial stages and I doubt if you can find more than two-percent of folks who are attracted to it.  If the trend continues on?  That's the chief question here.  

Test Kit Story

 Back in January, my local grocery in the village....started selling Covid-19 self-test kits.  General price?  8.99 Euro (roughly $10 US) per kit (one-time test).  I felt at the time....it was a ridiculous amount of money for what some Chinese company made for probably 1-Euro or less.  

Today, I walked into the same grocery....here are the same kits, and now priced at 2.49 Euro each.  My general impression?  The kits just aren't selling that well anymore.  There's probably some big case in the back of the store with 500 kits in it and the manager just wants to get out of the business of test kits.

The Green-Red-Red Fantasy....No More?

 In the German political world....for the whole past year, there's been this journalistic hype of a Green Party win, and a coalition of the SPD and Linke Parties to occur....bringing in a leftist-view government for four years.

In the last month, that fantasy has more or less gone away.  

There's no way that the Green Party will achieve 30-percent in the election, and to be honest....it'll take a remarkable bit for them to achieve 22-percent.  The SPD folks?  They are stalled at 16 to 17 percent.  The Linke Party?  Pretty much stuck at 7 percent.  If this all comes to pass in September....the Green-Red-Red idea is gone.

The 'Delta-Variant' Chatter

 To put this in a simple basic discussion....this new variant is considered a major problem.  It transmits quicker and easier than normal everyday Covid.  So in the past ten days....it's gone to hype-level '8' on a scale of 1 to 10.

Returning to curfews and ban-rules?  Well...the politicians are careful to avoid that chatter.  The virus-experts are carrying the topic for the most part.

I don't think anyone with authority wants to get this all pumped-up prior to the election (September 26th).  What happens in mid-October?  Just a wild guess on my part but I would assume that ban rules go back into effect....curfews are put into effect within communities that have high rates of transmission, and virus-experts admit that the vaccination program is successful but having marginal results.

Germans being 'Covided-out'?  Various people have lost a significant amount of income, and some with business operations are in a bankruptcy frame of mind.  Kids getting a normal education in this era?  There's often discussions over this educational situation and it's not a positive trend.  These public forums on TV?  They've probably exercised this 'demon' as much as possible, and the viewing audience has drifted away.  

Eventually, the 'Echo-variant', 'Foxtrot-variant', 'Gulf-variant' and the 'Hotel-variant' will come.....each being worse than the other.   

Update on Ragaer 94 Situation.

 Police showed back up at Ragaer Strasse 94 yesterday (Thursday) to complete the fire inspection situation.  Squatters went back into a push-back strategy, 

Firecrackers and paint were the chief 'weapons' of Thursdays episode.

What the end-results of the inspection led to?  Fire inspection basically said that some issues in fire-safety were noted....not enough to shut down the apartment house.

What is curious in the news reporters....from the owners of the place....a appraiser accompanied the inspector.  Value of the building at this point?  It would be difficult to imagine.

Attitude of neighbors?  Just about everyone is peeved at the squatters and the whole 'circus' of violence going on presently.  

The unfortunate side of this?  Well...in about a hundred days...the city election will occur, and this is probably one of the top 'slams' against the SPD/Green/Linke government.  The three parties won't be able to match their 2017 results.  

Rent Story

 Yesterday, our regional public TV folks (HR) brought this curious thing about rental prices in Hessen (my regional state).

Normally....the rule for personal finances....is that you shouldn't spend more than 30-percent of your paycheck on rent.

Well...in Hessen....around metro areas....that general rule of finance is failing.

Wiesbaden for example....around sixty-percent of city residents admit they pay over 30-percent of their paycheck.

Frankfurt? Almost half of city residents admit this.

Kassel?  Around 51-percent pay more than 30-percent.

A lot of this issue revolves around escalating rental prices, which has been a daily topic for well over twenty years.  

Berlin Political Chatter

 It's not something you will hear much about, but there's a state (really a city) election coming up for Berlin (26 Sep 2021).

There's a poll done in the last couple of days (courtesy of RBB) and things are shaping up a bit for the election.

The Green Party (currently running the city gov't since 2017)?  They are polling at 22-percent and currently are on a downward trend.

Right behind them at 21-percent....is the CDU Party.

The SPD Party?  At 17-percent.  

The Linke Party?  At 12-percent.

The AfD Party? At 10-percent.

The FDP Party?  On a upward trend for the past month, at 9-percent.

What this would suggest?  Unless the Greens find some 'magic'....the CDU probably will pass them in the next couple of weeks.  

As for the FDP folks?  They are mostly taken advantage of the negativity over SPD's Giffey's who is leading the party apparatus in Berlin (remember her degree troubles from the past month).  I might go and project another three points loss for the SPD, and the votes going to the FDP Party.

As for the AfD?  They are pretty much at maximum potential in this election.  If you went around and asked most working-class Berliners about their top-ten issues in town....integration/migration wouldn't make it on the list.  

As for the current coalition?  The SPD folks won in 2017, and built the five-year coalition around the Linke Party and Greens.  If the CDU did win this election....their coalition probably would be the SPD and FDP.  The odds that this would NOT be enough to be fifty-plus percent?  Well....yeah, that is a minor issue.  

Rigaer 94 and the Basic Story

 There are three elements to this riot business from yesterday in Berlin, at Rigaer Strasse 94.  

First, this is a structure that is fairly 'aged'....meaning it probably should have been renovated and updated in the 1960s, but never was.  

It is a structure of three buildings, and roughly 30 apartments.  

Normal fire safety expectations?  Well....severely lacking.  There are wall openings which aren't accredited.  The stairway system has blockages.  Electrical wiring in most cases would not pass today's expectations.  In simple terms, it's a structure that in 99-percent of cities...would be barred from renters.

Second, the general history.  After the wall came down (1990), this structure was a public housing project.  It had been cleared of renters around this time period, and various sources tend to suggest that the building was set to be either gutted and totally rebuilt (long-term plans).  With management in chaos....squatters moved in, and stayed.

Roughly four years would go by with talk between the city housing authority and the squatters....when some deal would be worked up to allow renovation to take place, and rent to be paid.  No one talks today about the amount of rent, and I seriously doubt that it was that much.

Three years would pass, and this transfer or sale of the property occurred....with the property now going to a private group (not public housing).  The group involved?  The Jewish Claims Conference (JCC).  

What can be said over the next year...is that the JCC group intended to re-make the structure (the 30 apartments) into something very different, and probably out of the reach of the present renting crowd.  Discontent arose, with the renters at that point told to move out.  They were evicted and within months....quietly re-took the building once again as squatters.

The city got involved in this dispute around 2000.  What they did....to resettle the squatters....was offer public housing in a different part of town.  You would view the deal as 'fair'....but it was not apparently going to be around Rigaer Strasse.

So what went on for roughly a decade was this stalling action between the squatters, lawyers, the owners, and the city.  It was a five-star soap opera, with the city acting more as observers than figures of authority.

Around 2014, the property sold to a London-based company, with international backers. The squatter action?  It continued on.

So around 2016, this went to the physical violent level, with police involved in various efforts to evict the property occupants.

If you went and asked about injury days for the police....there's probably over 10,000 days over the past six years for the police.  

The city officials?  They have no real plan, or motive to resolve this mess.  

So onto the third part of this story.....the structure is a 'magnet' now for revolutionary characters.....much like the Alamo was for Texans.  Just about everyone in Berlin knows of Rigaer 94, and the chaos attached to it.

People who live on this block?  They've grown to hate the squatters and their violent actions.  Driving the value of the surrounding properties down?  There is no doubt about that. 

What's likely to occur today?  I suspect that the fire safety inspection will take place....with numerous violations, and the chief of fire safety for the city....signing a document to say the building is now unsafe for human beings.  In any other German city....the structure would probably be torn down.  In Berlin, it would simply have an eviction....then squatters would arrive a day later to take over the structure again.

Berlin Riot

 This morning turned into a pretty hectic situation with police and riot folks on the east side of Berlin (Rigaer Strasse 94).

If you aren't familiar with the street location and it's soap opera-like story.....it was a residence taken over by anti-capitalist/revolutionaries around 20 years ago.  The owners and the occupant crowd have been at odds ever since.  

Today, the city authority was supposed to conduct a fire-test, and that would allow the building to be certified as occupiable.  

Well....things went 'south' and barricades were set up....stones were thrown at the cops, and fires in the street were started.  Water cannons were brought out.   

What the police say....around 200 masked folks attacked firemen, emergency personnel and police.  Some stones were thrown from the rooftops.

Presently, the police say around sixty of their folks were injured.

Odds of more action tomorrow?  No one is saying much.  

Best news source on this?  Focus.

Bankruptcy Story

 If you look around at regional news from Baden-Wurttemberg...there's a front-page story on healthcare and bankruptcies. SWR reports the basic story.

What's said of the Baden-Wurttemberg state.....about one-third of all clinics in the state are either at bankruptcy presently, or getting fairly near that point.

Getting any better in the future?  NO. What the financial analysts suggest is that the number will likely go higher.

The worst of the sixteen states?  Yes, that is clearly the data being seen.

But here's the interesting thing.  All of the data used to show this situation?  It's from 2019.  So the Covid-year of 2020?  That's not in the mix, and it probably shows an even worse situation.

All of this leading to a state 'save-the-clinics' agenda?  You would think that.  

That Glider Pilot

 Lot of chatter going on this morning over the Germany-France soccer game in Munich last night.  About the loss to the Germans?  Well....to some degree, but this episode with the motorized hang-glider guy is getting a fair amount of interest.

What Bavarian police say this morning is that they are reading through the Criminal Code and even the Federal Aviation Act, and this glider guy (from Baden-Württemberg) is probably going to face both state and federal charges.

Update: It's now been brought up that prior to the game, a flight ban was imposed around the arena....so this 'pilot' violated that, and on federal charges....this could get pretty messy.  He could be looking at several years in prison.  

The Unknown Protester

 This is a bit of a unusual story....mostly coming out of HR (our public TV network for Hessen).

Mid-2020....the court system finally gave the blessing for the autobahn A49 to be completed.  To wrap up the construction....the project had to go through the Dannenroder Forest.  Environmentalists put up a big fuss, and when the loggers came in....police were required to accompany them.

On a daily basis.....this turned messy.

At some point, one of the protest folks resisted the police, and even kicked two of them.  Because of the assault on police, she was arrested and taken off to jail.

Typically....you produce an ID at the jail-house, and you get released to appear later in court (usually weeks or months later).

Well...this gal carried no ID and refused to identify herself.

Based on these actions....the judge handed her back to the jail-house.  She's been there ever since.

Added issues in this case?  She mostly speaks English (not German).  Her age?  Unknown.  She might be early 20s.....she might be mid-30s.

Accent?  Yeah....she's probably not English or American.

Where the case stands?  Prosecutor says that she can still be prosecuted as a unknown figure (pretty rare to ever occur).

Charges?  Dangerous bodily harm gets brought up....as well the charge of assault on the police.  

Just on the assault to the police....you could get a minimum of three months in jail....on up to five years.  On the bodily harm deal?  Max is 3 years of prison.

Based on the interview....I don't think the young gal will ever identify herself and if evidence/witnesses lay out the situation....she's probably looking at three to six months in prison.  

The unknown ID situation?  To carry this on for six months?  Kinda curious.  

German and Covid-19: 16 June 2021

 1.  Total number of dead since day one: 89,996.

2.  Total recovered: 3.580,600 (since day one).

3.  Vaccination situation: 48.6-percent.

4.  The Hessen state blood supply folks kinda indicate that because of Covid and a limited number of people donating.....the reserve blood supply for hospitals is reaching a serious point.  

5.  N-TV did an update this morning....suggesting that the new reality is that Covid will end up like the flu and return each fall.  But because of the vaccination and treatment business.....it'll be just like flu-season.

I sat and pondered over the suggestion.  Just because you get the vaccination...does not mean you won't get Covid or get a serious bout of the virus.  The odds of the curfew business returning by December?  Probably up around a 75-percent chance (my odds on it).  All the rules and ban?  They probably will all return in late fall.  But the news and political folks will convince you that 'old Covid season' was ten times worse than 'new Covid season'.  

Polling

 ARD (public TV, Channel One) did a poll....asking Germans if they could pick the next chancellor....who it would be from the three choices.

Laschet from the CDU (Merkel's party)....got 29-percent.

Scholz from the SPD Party....got 26-percent.

Baerbock from the Greens....got 16-percent.

The rest? 29-percent couldn't answer from the three choices. 

A clear good feeling?  No.  

They did note that from a month ago....Baerbock had an overwhelming 28-percent and things have rapidly declined for her from the past couple of weeks.  If you were looking at the trend line.....I would guess that her numbers will decline another three or four points over June/July.  

Three months away from the election?  Yeah....it's not really clear where things might go now.  

The CDU Party might pull out this win, but how they form a coalition will be a bigger mess than usual.   Laschet has indicated in the past month that he's not that pro-Green on coalition-building.  

Veritas-Phobia

 Basically, the irrational fear of the truth.

This probably won't be identified with people by any licensed mental health expert, but I suspect we have tens of millions of people across the globe who have veritas-phobia.

This is the guy who continually wants to save the globe....save the Earth....save mankind....save boat-people....save regular people from Covid....etc.

He'd like to save the Earth in various ways, but the minute that you mention the cost factor....that he needs contribute 1,500 Euro a year to some tax-revenue game, he gets some dose of reality and walks away.  In his case, he didn't need a mental health expert or rehab in some fancy Swiss clinic.....he just needed a money-figure to correct his fear.

This is also the guy who'd like to bring half-a-million boat people to Germany and then twelve months into this....finds that a quarter of the new people don't fit well....don't integrate well, and that maybe 10,000 of them end up eventually in some police situation.  In this case, he gets another dose of reality and walks away from the pro-migrant stance.....admitting he had a fear of truth, but now has confronted it and gotten over his phobia.

This is also the guy who'd like to buy a E-car, and saves up 25k Euro for his down-payment (75k Euro car), and discovers a year into the ownership....well...some truth and reality.  The car just isn't the dream vehicle he wanted.  He puts aside his irrational fear of the truth, and sells the car.....feeling better about himself and proclaiming that saving the Earth might not rank that high with E-cars.  

Getting over veritas-phobia?  It basically takes some long-term thinking and asking stupid questions.  Then accepting reality is the last part of the situation.  

Three Unlucky Guys

 When the Archduke of Austria (Franz Ferdinand Carl Ludwig Joseph Maria) was assassinated on 28 June 1914....there are ton of events that occurred in the four years that followed, and basically drove all of the events in the 1920s, 1930s, and all of WW II to occur.

Little is ever mentioned of Ferdinand, and how he got to the seat of Crown Prince.  You see....he was actually number three in line for the Crown Prince job, and naturally assummed for most all of his life....he'd never get stuck with the 'duty'.

Most don't realize that he was the oldest son of the Archduke of Austria (Karl Ludwig).....who was the younger brother of the Emperor (Franz).  Franz's two sons were safely above Ferdinand....up until 1889.

Number one son of Franz?  Rudolf (dying in 1889).  What you can say of the guy.....he was fairly educated...had a great interest in the natural sciences, and probably had a more liberal view of society than his dad.

Rudolf (in simple terms) got fairly bored with his arranged marriage, and had various affairs on the side.  At some point in the late part of 1888....Rudolf began a hundred-odd day affair with a seventeen-year-old non-royal gal, and got into an extremely intense affair.  

When I say intense.....it's probably better to say he was consumed day and night over this teenage girl.  It reached the level where members of the royal family were aggravated over his behavior, and trying to arrange various ways to end this relationship.  This outside influence situation led to a huge amount of pressure being applied on the prince....which he really couldn't handle.  

On 30 January 1889, the Crown Prince and his teenager lover were found dead (suicide) at a hunting lodge that he owned.  

So opened the door for the replacement Crown Prince....the younger brother of the Emperor....Karl Ludwig. For around seven years Karl Ludwig held the position as the Crown Prince and led what you'd consider a fairly quiet life (yes, he was married three times, but the first two died). 

In the spring of 1896 (at age 62), he ventured off on a tour of Egypt and the Holy Lands.  Upon the return to home.....he had Typhoid and died.....so opening the door to the next replacement (Ferdinand).

I've always thought that there ought to be a twelve-hour mini-series over the three Crown Princes and their lives.   If any of the three had 'lived'....the odds of WW I going the way it did....probably would never have occurred.