Monday, June 21, 2021

The 500 Pound Guerrilla in the Room (How the AfD Changed Politics)

 I could probably make this a 500-page book/essay, but I'll limit it to fifty-odd lines.

The AfD Party, for those who aren't aware....in German politics.....didn't really exist prior to 2013.  When it was created....it was for one simple agenda....to dump the Euro and go back to the Deutsche Mark.  At that point, ten years into the Euro....it would have been safe to say that ten-percent of the German public probably agreed with the agenda.

In the summer of 2015, AfD radically changed.  They had a party meeting....fired a couple of the original folks, and added one primary agenda....stop/hinder immigration or migration into Germany.  At this point in time....with the chaos of the ISIS war in Syria and Iraq.....tens of thousands were 'walking' up through southern Europe and making their way to Germany.

Prior to this transformation, no one from the CDU, SPD, FDP, Linke Party or Greens really cared much for the AfD (they weren't a threat in their mind).  

After the transformation, it was like a lightning bolt striking a jet-fuel tank....with all hell breaking loose with the other parties.  They were all aligned to be pro-migration, and AfD was programmed to be the ONLY group against immigration.

In the 2017 federal election, AfD won 12.6-percent of the national votes....giving them 94 seats....which the other parties were fairly frustrated about each losing seats.

The amount of action taken by the Bundestag in the six months prior to the 2017 election?  Well....that's a story by itself.  You see....various little gimmicks had to be achieved.  This is where they suddenly found the cash to hire more police.  This where they suddenly suggested various ways to deport more individuals who were trouble-makers.  This was where avenues to enter the country were closed.  In simple terms....AfD forced moderate changes to occur.  If the parties had just remained on the same route.....the 2017 win would have been easily near 20-to-25 percent for the AfD Party.

The continued 'slam' against AfD?  There's not a week that goes by that the ARD or ZDF (public TV empires) get a four-star 'slam' accomplished.  Investigations going on against AfD?  No doubt.  But the huge pro-migration slant by the government is mostly tame and within reason at this point in time. 

AfD being far-right-wing?  There's no doubt that a couple of their big-time players are fairly far-out on the political stance platform.  

The frustration that AfD holds 90-odd seats?  I would imagine this is dragged up each week in Berlin and a number of political folks would like to find a way to push the AfD below 5-percent.  

All of this leading back to the Merkel issue of not settling migration?  More or less.  There are a hundred ways to admit the program was marginally run, and serious mistakes were made.  But no one really cares to revisit the 2015-2016 era.  So this leaves the 500-pound guerilla in the room.  

As for the path ahead?  AfD marginally has a platform on other issues.  If you asked me if this is a long-term party....I'd say no....they will eventually reach a point where the government clarifies its migration situation and there's public view of a problem decreasing in value.  I'd even make the suggestion that come the 2025 election.....they probably will be a 6-to-7-percent vote situation in that federal election.  At 4.9 percent or lower, they no longer have a standing in the Bundestag.

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