Well...by federal law, there is a mandate in effect. If you are a medical person (hospital or clinic), ambulance individual, or a caretaker (retirement home)....you are required to be vaxed-up. If you aren't vaxed....HR gives you the termination notice.
When this was passed four months ago, it was assumed that this 'push' would be simple and people would just cooperate. Don't ask me how this assumption was reached.
In the past week....one single district in Germany stood up and said 'no'....we won't enforce this. In the past couple of days....the state of Bavaria stood up and and 'no'....we now realize it's going to create chaos. Yesterday, the federal folks and some legal experts said that Bavaria does not have the right to exit this law. Federal law....is federal law.
So, lets ask some questions.
Does anyone (federal or state) have a fairly decent number situation on clinic/hospital/caretaker people, and the non-vax folks? No one seems to discuss this, and I just find it odd to have such a harsh law going into effect with no real background. You ought to know....hospital by hospital.....what the issue will be.
Does it differ on vax and non-vax....state by state? Yes, no one argues over this. In the far NW of Germany....the vax-rate is up around 85-to-90 percent. As you get into Bavaria and particularly the eastern side of Germany....the vax-rate is closer to 65-to-70 percent (definitely less than 70-percent in eastern states).
If we come to 15 March and you have a district with 1,500 caretakers at retirement homes, with 500 in the non-vax category.....when they are terminated, who will replace them? Any guesses?
Does the federal government of Germany have a plan 'B', for the staff shortages in hospitals/clinics?
Any truth to rumors that non-vax medical folks are already putting resumes out, and getting calls from Nordic countries (Finland, Norway, Denmark) for jobs there? It's strictly rumors and I won't vouch for any of them being true or false. But if you did have 300 nurses across Germany announce quitting notices in the second half of Feb.....I'd probably start to ask questions if they are hired up by Norwegian hospitals, and leaving Germany.
One aspect that I gained from my years in the Air Force....you never announce new regulations/rules....without a accurate numbers display on what exists today and what you gain.
So in roughly five weeks, I generally expect a massive amount of chaos to occur, with some retirement homes (particularly in eastern Germany) to be only 50-percent manned, and some hospitals shutting down entry to just emergency patients only. I kinda expect over a thousand nurses to have engaged with out-of-country HR units and found great job offers in Denmark, Sweden, Finland, etc.
By the end of March, I expect political chaos to be maxed-up a good bit, and the Health Minister to admit defeat....dumping the vax rule, but finding the damage has already been done. It may take six months to resolve/fix the manpower shortage and blame likely getting fairly serious.
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