I would offer these ten observations:
1. I offer the judgement that a limited scale invasion (on the far eastern coastal region) is more likely than a full scale invasion (where Russian troops come from Belarus in the north, from Russian territory NE of Kiev, from the central eastern landscape, and from the costal area of SE Ukraine).
A limited scale invasion would last two weeks at the most, and have a particular area of Ukraine to overtake. A full scale situation would likely have the idea of taking everything east of the Dnieper River (roughly half the country) as some Russian 'new' state. Eastern Kiev would be divided off, and be no longer part of the Ukraine.
A full scale invasion would take a minimum of four weeks to accomplish and create a serious nightmare.....lasting through all of 2022. The population in this eastern region of the river would pack in a hurry and move west of the river. You'd find various cities like Kharkav (currently 1.4-million), Poltava (285k), and Donetsk (2-million) completely deserted.
(I should note here....Germany probably would take in more than three million refugees from the region. That's two million more than in 2015's 'number' of refugees.)
2. Every single member of NATO would now have some level of fear. If you went to Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania....each would now have meetings and seek US troop deployments.
In a matter of three months.....probably over 40,000 US troops would be brought in....to just those NATO member states....having nothing to do with the Russian invasion itself of the Ukraine.
In simple terms....a whole new 'Cold War' will have been created out of thin air.
3. Most US installations in Germany would be emptied out, and the hint is that they probably will not be returning anytime in the future. The new front is 200 miles further east.
4. The government of Germany would be in a harsh position.....where any support of NATO would lead to natural gas being cut off. Trying to get a position or a solution out of the SPD-Green-FDP coalition will be near impossible.
Open criticism will occur nightly via the news that this government does nothing to twist the arm of the Russians to remove themselves from Russia.
5. In a matter of days....the Covid crisis in Germany will be pushed down the crisis list....where natural gas and the fear of war will occupy positions one and two.
6. The trade relationship between China and Russia will become obvious, and if the EU/US wanted to get Russia's attention....it has to put China into a trade limitation. They'd have to harm their economies to such a degree....that China would rethink their whole business trade situation with Russia.
7. Probably over half the population of Russia....working-class people....would stand up and ask what exactly is the 'gain' here, and why their tax revenue is paying for a useless invasion.
The next Russian Presidential election? March 2024. Whether Putin believes it or not....a lot of regular people won't buy into this invasion being a positive thing for their society.
8. Russian special forces personnel already in central Europe? It would not really surprise me if a thousand of these guys were already in Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland. Dressed in tourist clothing, in rental cars, and given targets to hit of military value....to put fear into the hearts of people.
9. Russian Oligarchs and their yachts parked in Greece....on some 'seize property' list by NATO? That suggestion wouldn't shock me, and it'd probably have immediate ramifications. But this would quickly escalate things and create just a bigger mess to handle.
10. Finally, onto the downward trend of the US/Europe economies being affected.
I'd suggest a 30-percent drop in the DAX/Nasdaq.....being the high probability.
So onto the idea that this would be a very limited invasion and only involve the far eastern coastal section. This makes limited sense and would be the only thing that Putin needs to do....demonstrate that you can conduct a limited seven to fourteen day war, and NATO will do little to change the outcome. If this were the 'east of the Dnieper River scenario'......it's a mess that would linger around for several years and become a burden for Russia.
2 comments:
I certainly hope their is no US involvement at all; 40,000 more US troops, there's absolutely no geo-political reason for that other than Biden attempting to steer attention away from his failed presidential policies at home, a 'wag the dog' scenario as it were.
If this were a little gimmick by Russia to control an area of 50 x 150 miles along the coast to Sevastopol, then the mini-war could conclude and the fear business would only be brief.
This discussed topic of nuke missiles being moved up into Belarus would get a lot of attention (if true). Add to the bigger scenario...the whole area east of Dnepar River being a target (no logical reason except to impress/worry NATO).
My impression is that Putin would do a maximum 'wag-the-dog' scenario because Biden is so weak, and Biden's crew would jump into this because 'War-time-Joe' would look strong. Zero gain for anyone, other than getting our minds off Covid.
It all brings back the 2010 to 2013 period....where the EU screwed up the whole trade dialog, and suggested a stupid NATO 'card' for the Ukraine down the road. This should have been a 1-page trade agreement on agricultural products for a couple of years before industry/tourism got brought. NATO talks should never have come up.
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