Sunday, March 6, 2022

The War: 6 Mar 2022: AM

 1.  Mastercard/Visa say operations in Russia cease immediately.  Russians paying off their debt?  I would doubt it's on their top 1,000 problems at this point, and MC/Visa will just be handed a huge amount of 'cost'.

2.  Chatter over the term 'World War III'?  Well, I'd say the reference is used forty times a day from interviews, news stories, and social media hypes.  

3.  One thing has bothered me since the first day, with video feed of Russian tanks, trucks, jeeps and APCs.  None have any markings except 'Z' (for the denazification slogan).  Typically, you would have the unit name, and some number for the vehicle.  It's hard to think of a single military in the world where this identifier isn't used.  These Russian vehicles have none.

Another thing about the vehicles....you notice after like 250 YouTube videos examined.  Where you see running Russian equipment or non-functional (bombed-out) Russian equipment....they mostly all seem to be 'old' (meaning 1970s/1980s equipment).  The jeeps?  Those are ultra modern (probably 2010 to now equipment).  Most all of the APC's?  They seem to be from the 1980s.  

There's a story from yesterday's N-TV news where they talked to military experts (German) and they suggest it's all exercise-area hardware.  The lack of markings and the old stuff?  That would fall into the idea of proving it's not regular hardware that the units would have.  The units probably took their conscripts and regular personnel down to this training area, and this invasion is tied around old equipment.  

If true?  That's something you have to wonder about.  Mechanically speaking.....no idiot would design a major invasion force with 1980s equipment, but these guys apparently did.  Maybe the generals explained this to Putin.....maybe not.  

But this brings up another issue....if their better stuff is not in the Ukraine....where is it?  Was the bigger war around Estonia/Poland the place where you'd use the fine hardware?  

4.  Sberbank (major bank in Russia) says their credit cards are still operational and should be used by Russians.  BS-factor?  I'd give it a '7'.....Sberbank's European division is shutdown, and appears to be drafting up a bankruptcy situation (if you had money as a European in the bank....you can forget about anything beyond 100k Euro still being there).

Sberbank being given some Russian government 'protection' (printed cash)?  You just have to wonder how these credit cards would work, and where the debt ends up eventually.  

5.  Canadian citizens were told in the early hours of today....to pack up, if you in Russia and find some way to exit (it probably won't be a plane).  

6.  I spent most of 2014 reading through various books on the start-up of WW I....with the assassination of Crown Prince Ferdinand, the four-week escalation by the Prussians, and start of WW I.  It's not a big discussed thing in American schools and rarely gets more than a 7-line paragraph in high school history books.

Ferdinand is killed on the 28th of June 1914.  There is the whole month of July where the Prussians chat openly (in newspapers) that the war is coming.  Most folks in England, France and Russia have doubt that Kaiser Wilhelm II will do something this stupid.  

Around the 20th of July....perceptions change, and there's this rush to get the heck out of German cities.  Trains fill up, and everyone is headed toward any place but the Prussian Empire.  On the 28th.....the war starts....exactly one month after Ferdinand dies.  

A number of people from that era (from a historical prospective) made the obvious comment that Kaiser Wilhelm II was not clear in the head, or grasping of what he was creating....which you tend to see in this past ten days with Putin.  But that really didn't matter when you got to 28 July.  

7.  Any independent news left in Russia?  No.  Radio Liberty shut down their operation over night.  

8.  Russian Foreign Ministry says it's a serious problem with the NATO folks providing weapons to the Ukrainians and they 'might fall into the hands of terrorists'.  

9.  With the shutdown of all news sites in Russia except the state-run operation....if you were a Russian mother contacted about your son now being a POW in the Ukraine.....if you did go and contact the local authorities to ask questions, they'd respond asking how you know of such a thing when they haven't announced this.  Then they'd accuse you of spreading false news.  You'd immediately shut-up and realize that you are under a threat for just reporting your son as a prisoner. 

The Ukrainians could even call you up and say we found your son's body with thirty others....here are the names which you can contact other mother's about the 'end'.  But if you called the authorities....the false news accusation would start up and then you'd have to shut up.  

Pretty weird.

10.  Moscow stock exchange opens tomorrow (Monday).  If you asked me on expectations....I would say they might manage to stay open for two hours before shutting down and calling for another week of closure.  Putin ordering them to stay open?  If his staff were that stupid....it'd be whole day of chaos, with 50-percent losses.  I just can't see that being allowed to occur.

11. Putin says.....'Sanctions are the equivalent of war'.  Generally, sanctions never go to this level, but what the Russians have gotten....is total economic destruction.  It might take thirty to sixty days.....but they are on the path to North Korea-status.

This triggering some WW III mess?  It's a crazy scenario that you'd only see in some George Clooney movie.

12.  The UN says 1.4 Ukrainians have left the country (44-million to start with).  I won't vouch for the accuracy.

13.  Ethnic Russian in Germany getting picked on?  Well....yeah, over the past week....various episodes have been reported.  A lot of these folks are already anti-Putin and made pro-Ukraine comments.....but it didn't help on German 'bullying'.

14.  Views of Russians in general?  A pretty significant portion had viewed Russian propaganda points for years, so whatever Putin says...in their mind, is true.  Opposing this group....probably half the nation.....are people who don't believe anything from any news group (to them, it's all propaganda).

The idea of creating the old Soviet Union?  I watched a YouTube video (which I would recommend)....where the general public was asked if they wanted the old Soviet Union back.  

Out of thirty-odd people (old and young).....there were maybe four folks who thought those were the glory days, and it might not be a bad idea.  The vast majority asked why the hell you'd want to bring back a failed system?  This was especially true with the folks who were up in their 70s/80s....they had gone through the era, and didn't see much positive to say.

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