Thursday, March 3, 2022

The What Happens If.....Essay

 1.  What happens if the Ukraine is blasted into the 'stone-age' by Russia?

Well...there's a big chunk of income/assets that just doesn't come back, and somewhere down the line....China will notice that their 'favored' trading partner doesn't have the cash to really be a 'favored' partner, and then things begin to unravel in Putin's world.  

It may take two to four years, but this day will arrive, and being the dictator of a 3rd-world country doesn't get you much.

2.  What happens when these two hydrogen/natural gas/LNG ports are built in Germany?

The chatter goes to the idea that less natural gas will then be bought from Russia (going down by half is the rumor).  But the bigger discussion is this talk of Norway over the development of hydrogen as a fuel source.  The whole game changes when this technology is finally figured out.

3.  What happens if Putin is dismissed?

Well, it's near impossible to dream up this scenario, but the likely successor is Dmitry Medvedev would step up for a while.  Intense infighting among United Russia (the party) would occur, and I don't see Medvedev staying more than two or three years. 

4.  What happens if the Ruble continues the downward trend (today at 1 dollar buying 100 Rubles)?

You just print more Rubles and not admit this to the public.  The Ruble is not going away....but if you were a Russian, you might want to get paid in Euro for the foreseeable future.

5.  What happens to the Nord Stream II pipeline, once bankruptcy is approved?

Some reorganization efforts....some people told their bills won't be paid....pipeline probably ends up in the hands of a third-party (maybe a Chinese billionaire).  I wouldn't expect an ounce of natural gas to transit for the next three years minimum.  

6.   What happens if mental illness is stamped on various Germans for Covid-issues....mostly related to depression?

DAK, the German insurance company, is actively talking about increasing numbers of people seeking mental help over panic, stress and depression....all leading back to Covid.  There's going to be years of treatment for some of these people, and it'll have a financial cost to your healthcare insurance.

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