Last night, I sat and watched a piece off the Auslander Journal (ZDF, Channel Two, public TV in Germany). I'd recommend a viewing, at this site.
The topic? Russians are starting to wake up....go into disbelief how things have become in the past ten days, and desire a protest against their own government/Putin.
Changing anything? I doubt it.
But I sat and pondered over this.
With the economy going into a spiral....no real access to normal things like Visa cards/Apple-pay....some shipping companies refusing to transport into Russia....harsh conditions on protests....a normal guy would wake up and ask the question, why bother staying?
Somewhere in early April, I'll predict that off in Finland....some journalist is told of forty-odd Russians who crossed the border from Russia, and asked for asylum. He reports it....no big deal.
Two weeks pass, and the border guard tells the journalist of the new numbers....300 Russians over a weekend....asking for asylum. Couples, families, teenagers, etc.
Someone starts to ask around...a dozen neighbors of Russia are saying that a thousand-plus Russians cross over and appear at various European or North American embassy operations....asking for asylum.
By May, there's probably 3,000 folks leaving weekly. Putin and his folks won't care but one day....some electrical plant 'boss' tells the district political 'boss' that his three top electrical engineers just disappeared. A month later, the Kremlin genius people suddenly realize that the 'best-and-brightest' aren't staying around for the glory of Russia, or to live a 3rd-rate economical lifestyle.
Then what?
Somewhere in the early 1990s....the Russian population hit 'max' at around 148 million. Presently, they are drifting around 144 million. In a normal year....somewhere around 4,500 to 5,000 Russians typically leave (meaning they don't intend to come back). I suspect the official number is triple that. It's been around that trend for at least a decade. It's a number that Russia can live with.
If the 2022 number was around 50,000 or more? They'd probably ask about their value/training/education. What you don't want is 100,000 folks with real jobs (medical, science, engineering, technicians) who pack up and leave. Then you start to wonder....what if the 2023 numbers were around 500,000 who flee?
What would Russia be like in 2025, with a million total who left in 2022 to 2025? Smart guys gone.....remainder are the average non-technical types?
What if some western countries figured this out, and actually did a PR campaign....leaving a door open for young bright Russians who just can't stay for the Putin-war or the Putin-drama? A poster with some Russian folks....with some text....'the world can be a better place, but without all the Putin-drama'.
Just a humble thought.
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