What Hodges Said

 There was a comment made by retired US General Ben Hodges yesterday, which is worth a moment of exploring.

Basically.....Hodges says that the Russian 'gas-tank' has probably ten days of war left in it.  His logic?  Ukraine claims (you can't factually back it up)....that as of this past weekend....12,000 dead Russians exist.  Wounded, missing, captured or deserted?  It's anyone's guess but it might total over 20,000.  

If there were 120,000 to start with....that number of 32,000 (out-of-action) is significant.  The conscripts?  Well....that's an interesting story.

Conscripts by Russian law....aren't supposed to in frontline assault situation (the contract guys are supposed to be there).  So Putin admitted this 'problem' last week and claimed that he was pulling them back, and all of the contract troops into the war.  Evidence of this?  None.  I think the Putin statement was BS.

If I were the Moscow general left to view the mess....I'd start to worry that I'm losing 2,000 men per day....either through the assault, retreat, wounds, deaths, or desertion.  I'd also question the generals at the front....if they are BSing me....telling me that they haven't lost any men today....when some 2,000 men unit today really lost around 200 men.  

But in the same scenario....as a Moscow general seeing BS and feeling a lose-lose situation is at hand....would I brief Putin or just keep my mouth shut?  I'd probably chat on positive trends....make up a 3-km advancement (when it never occurred)....not admit forty tanks were left on the field today because of a lack of fuel....and start to plan some exit to Finland or Turkey in the next week.

Is Hodges right about the ten-day thing?  I would say this....if evidence existed that Russia was losing 2,000 men a day (through five different issues).....then I would imagine the ten-day prediction might be right.  But to this burden.....lets say that six aircraft/helicopters per day were also being lost...with the pilots either captured or dead.  Then the cherry on this cake is some general counting fuel tankers, and realizing that you've only got the re-fuel assets to fill up your remaining tanks about once every three days....then the tank assault idea is pretty doomed at this point.

So I'm going to Hodge's vision on the 26th of March, and predict three things likely to occur that weekend: (1) at least three of the top generals in Moscow will be fired by Putin, (2) some kind of chemical/biological assets will be briefly used, and (3) desertion levels start to double up over the next week as Russian soldiers simply walk away....heading north back into Russia.  I'll add here....if challenged....they will be armed and not back down from any Russian police unit.  

I'm not saying the Ukraine 'wins', but they appear to have stayed in the fight long enough.....against a marginalized military and proven that Russia was never capable of fighting in the manner that they did in WW II.