Tuesday, March 22, 2022

Russia Losses in Afghanistan

Russia 'says' (you can't really trust the numbers) that the total manpower lost in the Afghanistan war was roughly 9,500 killed in combat, and another 4,000 who later died from wounds.  Then added to the number....somewhere around 1,000 who died of disease or simply 'accidents' (meaning suicides as well).

Total wounded?  What they say to that column is 35,000.  

A ten-year conflict?  Yeah.

If you gaze at the Ukraine....there's simply a lot of speculative numbers and you can't be sure of anything.  One odd aspect.....some Russian troops are being airlifted over to Belarus...NOT Russia, for medical treatment.  Belarus doctors admit this part of the operation.  

My question is....if we reach week eight and there were 13,500 dead Russian soldiers, with 35,000 wounded (surviving).....could the generals even stand there and admit the numbers to Putin?  I have my doubts. 

It's the same with the tanks.  There's no doubt that 400-plus tanks have been 'retired' (out of action) for the Russians.  Some even appear to have been left by the side of the road because of a lack of fuel.  Same issue brewing with the APCs and fuel-tanker trucks.  

Would the commanders admit losses to the generals?  I doubt that.  There's probably 'cooked' books existing now....showing such-and-such tank unit with forty tanks active....when at least twelve of the tanks haven't been seen or touched in the past ten days.  

So I'm asking the question....once we get to the end of April....if this conflict was even worse than Afghanistan....could Putin or the generals admit this to the public?  

New draft coming?  Well....I did notice via Russian news (you have to question this) that a draft of 130k new conscripts will start on the first of April and run to mid-July.  It would be curious to ask from the 2021 draft.....how many of the conscripts brought in for that period are still alive today.

Update: For a brief time, yesterday....the pro-Kremlin newspaper....Komsomolskaya Pravda....had a piece that said the Russian Ministry of Defense numbers were 9,861 Russian soldiers dead in Ukraine, with 16,153 wounded.  About an hour or two later....that whole article 'disappeared'.  Odds of it being accurate?  Probably 90-percent. 

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