Monday, March 24, 2014

Ukraine and Germany

Last night (Sunday).....came the weekly political chat show that draws a fair number of Germans.  The Gunther Jauch Show.  You can usually gauge the direction of the hottest topic....by watching the show.  The topic last night?  Putin, Russia, and the Ukraine.

The guests?  Three journalists who have a deep understanding of Russian politics, Putin, and Moscow.  Then they added Richard Kornblum.....the American who has been to the show several times in the past year.  Kornblum paints in the lines and puts the viewer in the midst of the decision process.  Kornblum is smart and direct on world events.  The final guest?  The German defense minister....Ursula von der Leyen, from the CDU.

Leyen is there to be the mouthpiece of the government, and present the path of options.  Some folks consider her to be the future chancellor of Germany....once Merkel retires.

What a German likely took away from the hour?

Putin isn't an amateur at this game and when he speaks....he's speaking from a position of authority....from both his prospective and that of the Russian government.  Putin isn't stupid or likely to make a mistake.  Putin doesn't negotiate.....he settles things his way.  Whatever dream that German intellectuals had over the past thirty years that the cold war was over, and a new friendship era was in full bloom.....is gone.

Since the Reagan era....there's been this long path of political figures talking up a great new Europe and no need to worry about threats or war.  A strong social path, friendships, and new understandings will take care of the old threats.

Well....I suspect that Germans have woke up in the past month and realized that this vision doesn't fit or work.  The problem now?  If this whole thing ended at the Crimea....then you could just chalk it up and everyone would go home and feel things could be revolve back to the normal relations.

Currently....at least six different Eastern Europe countries are worried.  They each have a Russian element of population, and they might be attacked in some manner....having sections of their country annexed away to Russia.  For the EU.....it's a problem.

NATO?  Well....five years ago, there was this belief that NATO was passing away, and that the US would likely leave the big mission of NATO by 2020.  Call it a defense dividend or whatever.....the end was supposed to be coming.  Now?  The US is considered fairly weak by Russian standards, and growing weaker by German standards.

Sadly, President Obama's vision and track record isn't something to be happy over.  If you measured his foreign policy strength presently.....it's probably rated even less than Jimmy Carter.  

What would Reagan do right now....if he were in office?  He'd bring in the ballastic missile defense umbrella, and make it active within ninety days.  He'd bring in a couple of US Navy vessels to the Black Sea.  He'd send the cyber guys to go and grab some Russian billionaire money sitting in bogus banks in Cyprus.  And he'd put air defense and two hundred US fighter jets into Poland and Czech.  I doubt if Reagan would even call Russia to inform them of the plan.  Like poker, Reagan would just keep playing poker and adding onto the pot.  Eventually, Putin would measure what the outcome could be and how any win for him....is really a marginal win with no bragging rights.

I suspect most Germans are in a confused state of mind.  Their natural gas supply is helped by the Russians (thirty percent comes from there).  They've been told that alternate possibilities exist but nothing is being pursued at present.  Fracking?  Oh, don't even bring up that topic.  Because of current laws, the US can't even sell it's natural gas production to Europe.

How they got to this point?  Well....the Ukrainians have been in this shadow economy for years.  They have raw materials, a rich education system, and industrial capability.  The former President of the Ukraine....though a supporter of Moscow....knew that something had to shift.  Last summer, talks came up with the EU, and maybe he thought that some economic door could be opened and more economic boost could occur.

Somewhere in December/January....Putin calls up this guy (I suspect), and told him to shut up and forget Europe and the treaty.  He did what he was supposed to do.....try to stall the treaty.  By this time....it's too late.  The people want economic prosperity.

This Crimea game?  First, it was pushed off into the Ukraine back in the 1950s....so it's not a historic part of the country.  A fair number of Russians in the Crimea?  Yeah....but the same can be said for other regions of the Ukraine too....as well as regions of Romania, Bulgaria, etc.

Will Crimea get all kinds of economic support by Russia....to survive?  I'm guessing there is one single check at the beginning of this....maybe half a billion.....and then they are on their own.  Within six years.....they will be standing there....a bad economy, and wondering if they can join the European economic community.

If ever that Germany needed a strong US and a bold US president....this is it.  Not since the 1980s.....have they needed such a partner.  And frankly, they will be waiting a fair amount of time for such a partner to arrive.  And it won't be with this administration.

Saturday, March 22, 2014

The New Cog in the Wheel

It is one of those shocking German-American stories....that got reported yesterday.

The US Army in Europe....runs a headquarters here in the Wiesbaden area.  Under the three-star....there is a chief-of-staff.  Generally, this is the guy who coordinates the efficient running of the headquarters, notes problems and morale issues, keeps the three-star informed on daily and weekly events, and is the cog that makes a smooth or screwed-up operation.  For any major Army unit....the chief-of-staff is the guy who makes wheel turn.

Well.....the US Army made the decision to ask the German Ministry of Defense to appoint a one-star German one-star general to be the USAREUR chief of staff.

What is generally said....via Stars and Stripes....details are yet to be worked out and it might take a few weeks to figure the general plan on this.  I would imagine this would end up being a two-year assignment, and is mostly an experiment in the making.

Pay-back for the bad NSA episode?  Maybe.

Some folks would admit that the Army in Europe (particularly the Wiesbaden area)....is under a spotlight and really needs to cleanse itself of 'problems'.  Maybe a German view of things.....with schedules, standard operating procedures, and logical long-term thought decisions....might bring something new to the table.

Does this open the door for some German Air Force general to be next in line for Ramstein?  I'd suggest that by summer of 2015....we might see such an act.

Rarely has the US ever allowed NATO officers or generals to be on the internal management side of their operation.  Historically speaking....this goes all the way back to World War I, and it probably took an awful lot of talk in the Pentagon to convince the Army to accept this idea.

A difference in thinking and planning?  Most Army generals are on a twelve-hour work-day.....seven days out of the week.  They'd admit.....they get up around 5AM....read through their e-mail....do PT....run through seven different meetings prior to lunch....and probably meet at least forty different people per day.  They'd also admit that they spend a lot of time on bad behavior episodes and trying to get the straight story on why Private Jones whooped up on several local nationals and how Private Jones can be adequately punished.  For a general....it's not a pleasant job to manage day-to-day affairs....they'd all prefer to manage wartime scenarios and execute real mission activity.

What will this German one-star find?  It might be five-star material for a fantastic book on military management and how one extreme style....met another extreme style....and transformed into something fairly different.  Army social protocols might shift.  Army welfare and recreation might suddenly go a step or two up.  Army PT might suddenly be enjoyable (well, you could hope that).  Maybe they'd even start a once-a-year march to Graf and back.

All of this....in the Wiesbaden area?  Yeah......things might never be the same.  

Friday, March 21, 2014

The Commission Deal

It's been decided here in Germany....that a commission of eight folks....appointed by the Bundestag....will survey and research the entire NSA affair.  Top to bottom.

To be fair about this....the SPD and Greens are the ones who want the commission.  They'd like to have several CDU characters (including Merkel) to testify in front of the committee (who-knew-what gimmick).  They want this Snowden guy as well....but the CDU has said that it won't grant him immunity and that hinders the idea bringing him into Berlin.  The best that folks think is that Snowden will get a list of twenty-odd questions, and he will answer to some degree.  The full-up answer?  Well.....I doubt it.  Snowden has years of material and won't dare waste telling everything to the German Bundestag commission.  Yeah, that kinda makes the whole thing a joke because of these artificial limits.

The head of this commission?  Well....it's the CDU's guy on the intelligence committee.....Clemens Binninger.  He's not exactly a household name and I doubt if more than three-percent of the German population would recognize the guy or know his reputation.  The general gut feeling?  He's awful direct....even to his own fellow CDU members, and he's as about level-headed as they come....when you talk about German political figures.

The best scenario for this whole game is simple.  Binninger leads the commission onto a six-month period of information collection.  They sit for sixty days and try to analyze what everything means.  A month or two will be wasted on writing some four volume series with 2,000-odd pages.

What it will say in the end is that there weren't many laws in effect that would have stopped this.  There weren't many German techno geeks standing there to prevent this.  There really wasn't that much five-star data of extreme value that the NSA guys got.  The amount of freedom that the NSA enjoyed in Berlin and the American embassy was the fault of Germany itself.  Snowden apparently won't lay out the vast nature of what he has.  And the NSA probably knows more about German culture, German food recipes, German hotel ratings, German Bundestag gossip, and German soccer.....than they know about Islamic radicals in Germany or Europe itself.

All of this is important....because the SPD really hopes the kid sex picture episode would just dissolve away.  Yeah, it helps to focus reporters on other stuff, and keep drifting back on why serious charges just won't be drawn against their guy.

So, circle your calendar....probably for some release date around January of 2015, and prepare for big hype over the terrible NSA folks.

Oh, and I should add....those terrible NSA guys work for the same government that you might need to push Putin into a corner about this Ukraine stuff.  If the NSA guys could just focus on bad guys.....like those KGB guys or the Islamic dimwits....we'd all be happy and thrilled at their hard work.  But things just don't work that way.

The "Green Hell"

About an hours drive west of Frankfurt, in the midst of forest and woods....lies the Nurburgring.  It's a quiet area except for races (when held).

Historically speaking, Nurburgring was nothing, until roughly 1927.  Motor sports in Germany was developing and Germans felt they needed a through test area for motorcycle and car enthusiasts.  It needed to have mountains and curves.....lots of curves.  So it was built.  The original track was 34 miles long....yeah....it was huge by today's standards.  Built next to an ages old castle, and far from any urban center....it was both a nightmare and a fantasy.

The design was so technical.....that they had it divided into four different regions.  The longer of the four was roughly fourteen miles.  The shortest?  Four miles.

Over the years....between weather and speed....it was tested over and over....with various accidents always part of the rich formula of success.

For the region, it was a money-maker.  The problem was....there weren't that many four-star races held on a yearly basis.

Somewhere around 1980....racers began to leave.  The motorcycle Grand Prix was last held here....in 1980.  Car racers began to leave shortly after that.  The race course had to be redesigned in various ways....in order to survive.  This meant capital investment and risk.

Today's race course is a fifteen mile test....with the remaining paved track used for vehicle testing.

The owners of the track?  Well.....they convinced the German government (the state, not the Fed)....to put a fair amount of money into fixing issues over the past decade or so.  No one much wants to discuss the amount, but it was reported by several news sources at around three hundred million Euro ($375 million dollars).  As much as was poured in.....it could not pump up the ring to its former glory, and so bankruptcy started up around two years ago, and a forced sale occurred in the last week.

What the government could get out of the sale?  One hundred million Euro ($125 million dollars).  It's a fairly big loss for the former owners, and the local state government.  Naturally, some CDU guys would point out....it was the SPD leadership in the state government....that pushed investment money into a losing enterprise.  It's best not to bring up this issue when in a public forum.

The new owners?  Well....it's the Capricorn Group.  What turned the tide in this negotiation....was that Capricorn was willing to put twenty-five million Euro ($30 million dollars)....into expanding or renovating the track area.  I should point out....the deal involves not only the track (ring) but also a local amusement park (of a three-star variety).

Capricorn's background?  It's a curious thing.  They are known for making better crankshafts, cylinders, pistons, and 'toys' of the racing community.  Their ambition for the most part....using the track as a technology center and a race track.

The odd thing about the track?  It's one of the few in the world....totally open for any guy to come out and run his car or motorcycle (Sundays).  You pay some cash....and get a few minutes on the track to race your car at the extreme.  Yeah, there's a waiver document somewhere in this mess and the track isn't responsible for any stupidity on your part.

The projected success?  Well.....it's hard to say.  Some racing historians would like to see the track recover and began a magnet for the big racing style of the 1930s.  Some would like to just see one big race a year with 200,000 people showing up.  The locals would like to see dozens and perhaps...hundreds....of jobs created by anything they do.

So, when you hear about the "Green Hell".....you can imagine this tranquil forest area, with hills and valleys.....with a race track built into the curves of the landscape.  Death is always an inch away, and failed brakes mean utter disaster within seconds.  For a German, this is a better fantasy than lusty women dressed in leopard tights, wearing five-inch heels, and holding a chilled Bavarian beer.....sadly.

Thursday, March 20, 2014

Our Local Lost Gal

About a month ago....I blogged up a local missing gal story from the Wiesbaden area....from Wambach.  From the story of the traveling businessman husband, it appeared originally and got strong attention in the local area....as folks searched for her.  Cops said in some cryptic way....that they felt she had health issues....but they left out what kind of issues.

Well....in the last day or so....new updates have occurred with this missing-gal story.

The gal in question....Britta Beauvais.....has not shown up.  The husband?  Well....he changed his original story slightly.  Cops hate that....because it tends to mean that neither the first story or second story are likely true.

Cops now admit....they've held the husband since 1 March (three weeks)....in jail.  No bail....no release planned.

What the husband has hinted is that the wife did herself in....by some drowning related episode....at least the Wiesbaden Kurier writers report this.

The problem is....there's a likely crime of a capital nature....but no body (kinda like the missing guy from the village next to mine who the cops have the likely suspect....but again, same deal.....holding the guy without a body as evidence).

The normal details you'd have in a case like this?  Well...the locals and neighbors all say that both the husband and wife lived in seclusion and no one knows much of anything, period.

Generally.....there is no time limit on how long the cops can hold you on suspicion.  If they wanted to stretch this out to five years.....they could probably do it....with a judge's permission.  The guy from the suspected murder in the village next to mine?  He's been held since October of last year.

So the whole thing about some gal wandering off into a forest, and maybe falling off the Earth in some fashion?  Well....it was a pretty good story by the husband.  Sadly, he just didn't stick with the story.

My Ten Observations on Public Transportation in Germany

A guy who grew up in Bama....has zero understanding and appreciation of public transportation.  I came out of a county area, that was considered 'consolidated' with three surrounding towns, and we were the largest urban area in America (more than 100,000 in population) with no mass transit system.  Nothing much has changed in the four decades since I left.

When I got to DC back in 2010....I made a vow that I'd survive without a car for twelve months.  By the end....I'd done almost forty-two months....without a car.  Yeah, there was a time or two....that I rented a car for day or a weekend....but for the most part....I made it without a car.

Since my semi-retirement in Germany in the summer of last year.....I've come to appreciate the local public transportation system.  It's a four-star system, and fairly different from the DC "Metro" system.  So this is my cynical blog essay over the comparison of the two.

First, If you stopped any DC Metro subway or bus driver and gave them a hundred-question aptitude test on just plain common knowledge....the first thing they'd do is ask a buddy if they could buy the test, then ask for a waiver, and then finally agree to take the test and fail it miserably (twenty-five percent would likely pass it).  My local ESWE German guys?  First, they'd complain to the union that it wasn't in their contract....then ninety percent of them would score eighty or above on the test, and the rest would score between sixty and eighty.  These guys aren't Einsteins....but they weren't hired to be idiots.

Second, there is an abundant staff of planners sitting behind ESWE....who are thinking five to ten years ahead of the DC Metro staff.  Most bus stops in the local area have a TV screen now up, and even at a quiet stop in the middle of nowhere....they will tell you the next bus is X number of minutes away.  DC Metro?  If you have the App on your smart-phone....it'll give you the info....but twenty-percent of the time....it's wrong, and no one really knows why.

Third, almost every single day on the DC Metro system....there's an accident.  There are stupid accidents....accidents caused by lack of attention....and accidents due to just poor driving skills.  The local DSWE German guys?  About once a month, I'll hear about some local bus accident.  Subway or trolley accidents?  Almost never.

Fourth, taking subway or rapid-rail lines down between midnight and 5AM?  In DC....Metro was famous for these episodes.  You'd have one entire section of line down every weekend in DC....from Friday night to Monday morning....for maintenance requirements.  The Frankfurt-Mainz-Wiesbaden rapid-rail?  They rarely take them down, and if they do....there's an alternate tracking system for them to use.

Fifth, about every six months.....one DC Metro maintenance guy dies on the tracks because someone didn't pay attention or the guy was walking on the wrong track for inspection.  The local ESWE guys?  You just don't EVER hear about some poor track maintenance guy dying on the tracks because of some stupid mistake.  Maybe it's the amount of attention that Germans put into the details or the standards of a no-drug or alcohol usage usage during work-hours.....but they don't screw up.

Sixth, when the local ESWE guys say this is the schedule....they mean....THIS is the expectation.  So if the bus is supposed to be there at 4:12PM....it will be there.  The DC Metro bus and subway system?  Well....there is a schedule, but I'd be humble and admit that they try hard to keep it on schedule for seventy-percent of the time.

Seventh, train doors on the DC Metro subway opening accidentally?  No one figuring out why or fixing it?  In the local ESWE system....if this happened one time....the car would be removed from the inventory and five engineers would be put to task to figure out why.  People would be fired from ESWE if this was occurring once or twice a month.  Giving some bogus statement of 'investigative analysis'....wouldn't work in Wiesbaden.  

Eighth, suicide by rapid-rail?  Well....yeah....DC Metro has this issue and they generally average ten foolish people a year who just have to jump out in front of a train.  Here in the Hessen-region?  You just don't hear about this kind of jump.  Maybe some idiot would walk over to the Mainz bridge and jump off into the river, or someone would run a hose from their exhaust....but we just don't have Germans running around to jump in front of subway trains.

Ninth, homeless guys riding to system to keep warm in the winter?  In DC's Metro system.....especially in January and February....I'd guess that three hundred homeless guys at any time....are riding the bus system or subway system.  Here in the local German network?  Inspectors tend to ride and ask for your ticket or card, and they make it a hard case for anybody without a valid ticket.  This means you get the cops attention next, and that means they ask questions and just might mandate you get a mental exam....which means you fail, and get kept permanently in some nice friendly institute, and never ride the local system again.

Tenth, after about a year in the DC Metro system....I came to expect "less".  Less safety....less security...less accountability....less performance.....less intelligence....less competence....less professionalism....less integrity....less determination....and less standards.  After the second year....I came to expect less....to the second degree.  And by the end of my forty-two months.....nothing much surprised me.  Even the fact that DC Metro admitted that they had an art director on the staff making over $100,000 a year advising them how to look better at their subway stations.....it didn't surprise me.

I'm approaching ten months now with the local ESWE system, and frankly.....I can't think of a single occasion where I ever sat for a moment and thought about "less" of something.  If anything....they've shocked me by thinking, planning, and calculating ahead.  I suspect that they go home at night....thinking about their job and how they might do better.

So, it's all pretty good.  Well.....yeah....with the exception of the bathrooms at the Frankfurt and Wiesbaden train stations (they do kinda rate with the DC Trailways bus station but at least there's not crack ladies or transexual pretender guy-gals around).

The Berlin Airport

Back in 2010 in Berlin....there were high expectations that the new Berlin-Brandenburg Airport....would open, after years of construction.

Well....it didn't.  Thousands of issues remained from screwed-up planning and construction requirements.

We are now four years into the phase two of the project....fixing the screw-ups.  This week....they proudly announced that they now have four percent of the airport up and ready to run.  I'm not sure why they had to make this announcement, and the political gain from such a comical statement. Then, I kinda remembered....these are Germans, and they measure practically everything.  So, maybe it's a positive....having four-percent of the airport up and running.  Then you kinda think on it.....this might only mean that the stairways and escalators work, and maybe all of the women's toilets are functional.

What the news media typically says....is that it'll all be up and running by the end of 2016.  Political folks now avoid the topic.  You'd never hear the Berlin mayor talk on the subject.....it tends to make them all look foolish.

I used to work for an officer who had a vast set of metrics for just about everything.  On any given day.....he'd want a status on such-and-such project, and you'd have to respond with a percentage.  I kinda felt silly....saying we are at eighty-eight percent capacity today....and two days later the same question would be asked and I'd have to note that we went down to eight-two percent.  This would drive the boss mad....asking how we did this and how we were going to recover this lost six-percent.  I'd generally say I'd need a day or two.....and by then....we were back up to eighty-eight....that would make him happy, but demanding we push for one-hundred percent next month.

Is there a listing for the items of four-percent ready?  I've looked over German papers and have yet to find any list.  I suspect....it's just one certain thing....like the ramp areas totally functional or the runway itself.  When you consider an airport....there's likely 250,000 running pieces and parts.....so it's not a simple tasking.

How many Germans follow the Berlin-Brandenburg Airport saga?  I'd say roughly twenty percent know there's massive issues.  The rest?  At least half the German public probably aren't even aware of some new massive airport being built in Berlin.  As bad as some Americans are over grasping their national situations.....it's just as bad in Germany.

So, this brings me to this concluding topic....who is the guy who keeps the listing?  Who monitors things and concludes you are at the four-percent or six-percent point?  Does he stay up at night....worrying about a slide down on the scale?  Is there a eight volume binder series to cover the four-percent achievement?  Will this guy retire once he gets to one-hundred percent?

When you hear about the BER airport saga.....at least you will grasp some of the issues over the status.  It's a work in progress....as Germans would say.

ESWE

I've been gone for three weeks, and oddly enough....came back yesterday....precisely on the day that the ESWE folks (our local organization that runs the buses, trolley cars, subway cars, etc).....decided to go on strike for a day.

Here in Germany....for the past fifty-odd years....there's been this major push in urban areas to get cars off the streets.  Folks have built up a routine.  You get up at a certain time.....the bus comes by at the right time.....you cross over to a S-Bahn train (your local subway or rapid-rail), and in less than an hour.....you arrive at your destination.

Here in the Frankfurt, Mainz, and Wiesbaden area.....I'd take a humble guess that 200,000 cars are parked and these people avoid the grid....by using public transportation.  This helps the cities by avoiding parking costs and huge tie-ups with traffic in the early morning or late afternoon.

Well.....this all works fine....as long as ESWE runs.  If on a strike...it's massive chaos.  Even retirees get into this game.....by getting rid of their cars and just using public transportation alone.

I imagine that several thousand folks called into the office yesterday.....basically noting that they had no way to get to work.  Thousands more got into a mess trying to find parking for cars that they normally never drive to work.

Success from the strike?  Well....I'm not sure.  It probably drove home a point....maybe negotiations turn fruitful and some agreement occurs....which leads to another strike in three years with the same results.

An American would look at the infrastructure in place for public transportation in Germany.....and be amazed at the degree of connectivity.  On a day like yesterday.....the same American would be shocked just how handcuffed the public has become.....with this marvelous public transportation system.  You kinda have to take the good with the bad....so to speak.