Travels Among the New Greek Ruins, by James Angelos
I spent the last five days pouring over The Full Catastrophe.....a through review of Greece and how they arrived at a five-star mess. The book was wrapped up in January and is fairly up to date.
First, I'll say that Angelos writes like Steinbeck and gives a wonderful rich full-color explanation of events and characters of Greek society. When he describes a scene of a Greek gal doing an interview, smoking a unfiltered cigarette and wearing cowboy boots....you actually stop and re-read the whole paragraph and get the significance of the moment. These are brilliant descriptions of mortal men and women....put to paper.
Second, there are only seven chapters to the book, but he divides the chapters into great explanations as to how Greek fall into a pit of despair. I would strongly suggest a slow read of chapter one....'Island of the Blind', which covers the disability gimmick used by a number of Greeks to claim a disability status using a fraudulent claim. Oddly, no one really feels shamed when they admit they were on the receiving end of the false claims.
As you pour over the book, you are left with three gut-feelings.
First, Greeks are screwed. They know they are screwed, and even admit to visitors they are screwed. It's almost like some national character flaw.....needing to be screwed and be public over the intense nature of the screw-job. They talk about being screwed with the neighbor, the retired guy at the pub, the local minister, and even their relatives. It's like a badge, and they wear it proudly.
Second, no one really wants to cooperate on tax-payment. Not the rich, not the middle-class, and not the poor. They worked hard for their assets and feel no one deserves their money. So when the gov't says they've collected X-amount of revenue for tax revenue.....it's probably half of what they should have collected.
Third, Greek politics work like a Shakespeare-Samuel Beckett-Oscar Wilde-T. S. Eliot twenty-five act play, with comedy, lust, deceit, fraudulent honor, and woeful heroes. Oddly, in the middle of the book, there's a chapter to cover 1940 to 1945, and you do get the idea that Greeks probably suffered more than any society at the hands of the Nazis....maybe just as much as the Jews in fact. Even in a thousand years.....I don't think the Nazi era will ever be forgotten in Greece.
My recommendation? If you have a curious nature over how Greece screwed up.....this is the book for you, and it'll be a rich reading experience. Don't worry about college economics being explained or some difficult-to-understand Greek history lesson. Angelos does a great job of telling a simple story and keeping you in full sight of the intended goal of the book.
Greece is.....in my humble opinion.....Disneyland-Med. It's the place where you want a week of relaxation, cobblestone streets, wonderfully cooked dinners, cheap wine, and a desire for a low-crime or low-stress environment. Greeks are among the nicest people in the world, and absolutely genuine in their character (they really aren't faking you). But somewhere over the past 2,500 years.....they've latched onto tax-avoidance, low view of law, and attached themselves to the ninth degree to socialism. It's the kind of socialism that you demand in receipt, but never seem to know the true cost, and act shocked later when you don't have the money to pay for what you desire.
Saturday, July 11, 2015
What I'd Expect on Sunday
Tomorrow is the big meeting in Brussels over the Greek loan request. Yesterday, some journalists felt they had the inside scoop and that Germany's Chancellor Merkel was agreeable to some type of loan deal. If you asked a hundred adult Germans.....barely ten I think.....would be approving of some loan. Greece comes over fairly negative in the German press and I just don't see the Greeks repairing the situation....that's not their past behavior.
This is the deal that I would offer the Greeks:
1. Agree to a forty-odd billion and three year deal. But the agreement of the deal doesn't end with a Brussels vote.....mandate another vote in Greece on 'yes-no', and mandate a second vote with the Greek Constitutional Court on 'yes-no'. If either vote against the deal....terminate the deal and end the misery for the EU. Let Greece walk way. Put the pressure on the court members to be agreeable with the deal or veto the deal.
2. After the 'yes' vote, immediately pay out a five-billion Euro down-payment and give the Greek parliament sixty days to pass specified changes that the agreement has in it. If they fail to wrap this up by the sixty-first day.....delay all future loan payments. If they meet the sixty-day requirement, make another five-billion Euro down-payment on the loan.
3. Six months must pass and no challenges or veto's by the Greek Supreme Court....otherwise, it'll delay the payment of the next five-billion.
4. Anger by the public with the current political party in charge, and another election to bring a new party in.....which says they never signed this deal and aren't responsible? Stop payments, and suspend the deal for six months.
There are over a thousand ways that the Greeks could take the fifty-odd billion Euro and actually do a positive thing with the money, and come out of this crisis in five to ten years. Sadly, no one expects them to do this.
My humble bet is that roughly 250,000 Greeks will pack up by late August and leave for Germany, France, Italy or central Europe. They will pack bags and cars, and just leave. Teachers will step into classrooms which ought to have twenty-five students and find only fifteen kids there. By December, I'm betting that almost a half-million Greeks will have left the country in 2015....giving up.
The sad truth is that they've spent two thousand years building this character and mentality.
This is the deal that I would offer the Greeks:
1. Agree to a forty-odd billion and three year deal. But the agreement of the deal doesn't end with a Brussels vote.....mandate another vote in Greece on 'yes-no', and mandate a second vote with the Greek Constitutional Court on 'yes-no'. If either vote against the deal....terminate the deal and end the misery for the EU. Let Greece walk way. Put the pressure on the court members to be agreeable with the deal or veto the deal.
2. After the 'yes' vote, immediately pay out a five-billion Euro down-payment and give the Greek parliament sixty days to pass specified changes that the agreement has in it. If they fail to wrap this up by the sixty-first day.....delay all future loan payments. If they meet the sixty-day requirement, make another five-billion Euro down-payment on the loan.
3. Six months must pass and no challenges or veto's by the Greek Supreme Court....otherwise, it'll delay the payment of the next five-billion.
4. Anger by the public with the current political party in charge, and another election to bring a new party in.....which says they never signed this deal and aren't responsible? Stop payments, and suspend the deal for six months.
There are over a thousand ways that the Greeks could take the fifty-odd billion Euro and actually do a positive thing with the money, and come out of this crisis in five to ten years. Sadly, no one expects them to do this.
My humble bet is that roughly 250,000 Greeks will pack up by late August and leave for Germany, France, Italy or central Europe. They will pack bags and cars, and just leave. Teachers will step into classrooms which ought to have twenty-five students and find only fifteen kids there. By December, I'm betting that almost a half-million Greeks will have left the country in 2015....giving up.
The sad truth is that they've spent two thousand years building this character and mentality.
Friday, July 10, 2015
"Alle Kinder Raus"
This week, I had to utilize my local bus service on several occasions. Typically, at 8AM, half the bus would be empty leaving my village. We are in the last week or two of school, and the teachers have flipped the schedule enough to allow kids to show up at 8:30AM.....this means they leave after the 8AM point and the bus is fairly crowded. In the city of Wiesbaden, it just gets worse.
So, one day this week.....the 'perfect storm' arrived.
I switched to another bus in town to reach my destination. The bus was packed full with regular riders (adults) and at least half the bus was fourteen to seventeen-year old kids trying to reach school. Packed.....would be an understatement.
Well....this is also the time of year when kindergarten kids are doing day-trips.
So we pull up to one stop and here are three 'cattle-herders' and their herd (approximately 15 kids of approximately five to six years old. The 'cattle-herders' are trying hard to corral the kids while on the bus and keep them in line.....all near the rear of the bus.
Next stop? Another herd to enter, with their three 'cattle-herders', and they try hard to keep these kids toward the front of the bus.
It's crammed full now and the bus driver knows it.
So we pull up and one of the 'herds' are ordered "alle kinder raus" (which translates, all kids disembark or leave). Course, it's only the herders of group A saying this. I'm kinda half-way watching this event and realize that some of group B are near the kids in group A, and there's at least one or two kids from B.....taking the order to get off. The herders of the second group aren't really catching onto this.
So, the group get off and the herders of group A are counting and the bus driver is ready to launch.....naturally.....the count is off, and they count again, and again.
Yeah, finally, the herders of group B catch on that they've lost some of their herd and try hard to retrieve a lost 'cow' from the group.
It was chaotic and amusing at the same time. Eventually, after wasting probably four minutes at this stop.....we finally retrieve this 'cow' and proceed on.
So, one day this week.....the 'perfect storm' arrived.
I switched to another bus in town to reach my destination. The bus was packed full with regular riders (adults) and at least half the bus was fourteen to seventeen-year old kids trying to reach school. Packed.....would be an understatement.
Well....this is also the time of year when kindergarten kids are doing day-trips.
So we pull up to one stop and here are three 'cattle-herders' and their herd (approximately 15 kids of approximately five to six years old. The 'cattle-herders' are trying hard to corral the kids while on the bus and keep them in line.....all near the rear of the bus.
Next stop? Another herd to enter, with their three 'cattle-herders', and they try hard to keep these kids toward the front of the bus.
It's crammed full now and the bus driver knows it.
So we pull up and one of the 'herds' are ordered "alle kinder raus" (which translates, all kids disembark or leave). Course, it's only the herders of group A saying this. I'm kinda half-way watching this event and realize that some of group B are near the kids in group A, and there's at least one or two kids from B.....taking the order to get off. The herders of the second group aren't really catching onto this.
So, the group get off and the herders of group A are counting and the bus driver is ready to launch.....naturally.....the count is off, and they count again, and again.
Yeah, finally, the herders of group B catch on that they've lost some of their herd and try hard to retrieve a lost 'cow' from the group.
It was chaotic and amusing at the same time. Eventually, after wasting probably four minutes at this stop.....we finally retrieve this 'cow' and proceed on.
The 53.5 Billion Euro Question
News reports this morning via the German press indicate the magic number of the Greek loan to keep them afloat.....is 53.5 billion Euro. In exchange for the loan.....Greece would bring up pension changes, cut spending, and push forward more sales taxes.
Where did the 53.5 billion Euro number come from? No one says much. Behind this....has to be some spreadsheet with some idea of the funds necessary to get them by for a period of three years (at least that's the other magic number they talk about). All of this would keep them in the EU, still able to use the Euro, and lay out some path to a new currency deal (Drachma). Some journalists aren't sure that the Greeks will really carry out the Drachma idea.
I was reading an oddball story late yesterday. Over the past week, there's been a big upswing on passport applications....especially for Greek kids. Some people believe that this is mostly for people admitting it's all a failure and no reason to stay.....so they are planning on an exit and taking their kids with them. Typically for a Greek......this is a permanent exit and they don't intend to move back.
I watched a German news piece last night. They sent a reporter on a plane down to Kos.....one of the major vacation resort islands in Greece. The plane? It was your typical 200-passenger plane and the majority of seats were empty. Normally in July.....every single seat would be full. The reporter went out to the beaches and interviewed Germans who were somewhat happy with their vacation but were a little apprehensive. The reporter went to the ATM to get cash and found the 100-Euro limit in place. If you were a tourist.....you'd best bring all your cash with you.....before flying into Kos.
The problem with the 53.5 billion Euro deal....at least within Germany.....no one believes the Greeks are capable of change. No department of the Greek government will downsize. No rich folks will be brought in for tax audits. No one with foreign bank accounts will be audited. Nothing much is expected the change. Personally, I would even have doubts that the 53.5 billion Euro would last to the end of the third year. With fake promised changes.....I'd give them twelve months at best.
My suggestion would be to agree to some fifteen billion Euro 'gift' (not a loan), and just say that's the end of the connection to the EU in terms of the Euro and Greece.
Let's be realistic....this three-year game-plan here? This current government will likely not be around to see it.....nor will it's replacement govenrnment. Whoever comes in....will have no connection to the agreement and say it wasn't done on their participation (the typical Greek stance to take). So cooperating and giving them the 53.5 billion Euro really doesn't matter. Neither does the 3-year deal.
The curious thing would be the data used to dream up the magic number of 53.5 billion Euro. Who knows.....maybe it was just a 16-year old kid working on some class project and he suggested the number to his dad who works in the finance ministry.
Where did the 53.5 billion Euro number come from? No one says much. Behind this....has to be some spreadsheet with some idea of the funds necessary to get them by for a period of three years (at least that's the other magic number they talk about). All of this would keep them in the EU, still able to use the Euro, and lay out some path to a new currency deal (Drachma). Some journalists aren't sure that the Greeks will really carry out the Drachma idea.
I was reading an oddball story late yesterday. Over the past week, there's been a big upswing on passport applications....especially for Greek kids. Some people believe that this is mostly for people admitting it's all a failure and no reason to stay.....so they are planning on an exit and taking their kids with them. Typically for a Greek......this is a permanent exit and they don't intend to move back.
I watched a German news piece last night. They sent a reporter on a plane down to Kos.....one of the major vacation resort islands in Greece. The plane? It was your typical 200-passenger plane and the majority of seats were empty. Normally in July.....every single seat would be full. The reporter went out to the beaches and interviewed Germans who were somewhat happy with their vacation but were a little apprehensive. The reporter went to the ATM to get cash and found the 100-Euro limit in place. If you were a tourist.....you'd best bring all your cash with you.....before flying into Kos.
The problem with the 53.5 billion Euro deal....at least within Germany.....no one believes the Greeks are capable of change. No department of the Greek government will downsize. No rich folks will be brought in for tax audits. No one with foreign bank accounts will be audited. Nothing much is expected the change. Personally, I would even have doubts that the 53.5 billion Euro would last to the end of the third year. With fake promised changes.....I'd give them twelve months at best.
My suggestion would be to agree to some fifteen billion Euro 'gift' (not a loan), and just say that's the end of the connection to the EU in terms of the Euro and Greece.
Let's be realistic....this three-year game-plan here? This current government will likely not be around to see it.....nor will it's replacement govenrnment. Whoever comes in....will have no connection to the agreement and say it wasn't done on their participation (the typical Greek stance to take). So cooperating and giving them the 53.5 billion Euro really doesn't matter. Neither does the 3-year deal.
The curious thing would be the data used to dream up the magic number of 53.5 billion Euro. Who knows.....maybe it was just a 16-year old kid working on some class project and he suggested the number to his dad who works in the finance ministry.
Thursday, July 9, 2015
Bernd Lucke
Bernd Lucke was at the front of the AfD political party since the very beginning. AfD took a fair amount of the FDP voters and a few CDU folks as they progressed. Today, around Germany.....AfD has roughly six-percent of the national voting audience.
The appeal of Lucke hasn't exactly been a bright star. He doesn't charm people, and some journalists have the opinion that he's more of a fraud than a leader for a political party. For political forums.....he just didn't seem to fit into the situation.
Well....this past week....AfD had a meeting and replaced Lucke as their head guy.
Yesterday, German political news noted that Lucke had a brief discussion with some reporter, and noted that he was now going to build a new political party and lead it.
Yeah.....the guy is a born politician and will not accept 'no'.
As for AfD? No one is really saying much over the changed leadership.....and if it means much. Maybe AfD has peaked at six percent and this is the highest they will ever rise. As for Lucke? Well....maybe there's enough room for another oddball political party in Germany and he's the right guy for it.
The appeal of Lucke hasn't exactly been a bright star. He doesn't charm people, and some journalists have the opinion that he's more of a fraud than a leader for a political party. For political forums.....he just didn't seem to fit into the situation.
Well....this past week....AfD had a meeting and replaced Lucke as their head guy.
Yesterday, German political news noted that Lucke had a brief discussion with some reporter, and noted that he was now going to build a new political party and lead it.
Yeah.....the guy is a born politician and will not accept 'no'.
As for AfD? No one is really saying much over the changed leadership.....and if it means much. Maybe AfD has peaked at six percent and this is the highest they will ever rise. As for Lucke? Well....maybe there's enough room for another oddball political party in Germany and he's the right guy for it.
More Greece
I picked up The Full Catastrophe by James Angelos yesterday and got about seventy pages into it so far. It's an up to date book over Greece and how they screwed up....year after year.....decade after decade. I would strongly recommend it to anyone who is curious about the Greece mess.
I noted in Monday's episode at the EU.....Guy Verhofstadt (Belgium representative at the EU), gave a fairly blunt speech to the Greek Prime Minister and basically said that they weren't that naive at the EU anymore. If you have time.....it's a short seven-minute speech and you can find at YouTube. The Greeks might be able to find thirty-percent of the folks at the EU who would vote for more cash and more time. I have doubts that it'd ever go past the fifty percent point based on comments spoken by several German journalists.
The three-year deal? Well.....from what the news folks talk about.....Greece is saying 'enough', and intends to drop the Euro but wants three years to stabilize things, and the Greeks need cash to survive this three year period. So far.....no one says how how much. From the 300-odd billion of the last effort, they survived almost five years. So logically, you'd figure we'd be talking about 150-odd billion Euro as a minimum.
I have doubts that Greece will get 150-odd billion Euro.....I have doubts that the EU would even offer 30-odd billion Euro.
As folks come up on Sunday and hear the active discussion and determine the final stage of the event.....my belief is that Greece will be offered an exit to the Euro and be able to stay within the 'zone' under some amazing umbrella of sorts. The EU will offer up some 60-to-90 day 'gift' (never to be paid back) and just say that's the end of this relationship. Greece will have to stage the Drachma return or find a second currency on its own.
Can the Drachma return in 90 days? My humble guess is yes. Contract out the service....haul the currency out to banks, and figure the right exchange rate. Prioritize your tasks and do only what is required. Huge inflation in the first year? Absolutely. Hostility by the hotels and tourist operations? Absolutely.
The thing is....no one outside of Greece believes that they can change or fix their problems. Lack of confidence now.....is a bigger problem than the crisis itself.
I noted in Monday's episode at the EU.....Guy Verhofstadt (Belgium representative at the EU), gave a fairly blunt speech to the Greek Prime Minister and basically said that they weren't that naive at the EU anymore. If you have time.....it's a short seven-minute speech and you can find at YouTube. The Greeks might be able to find thirty-percent of the folks at the EU who would vote for more cash and more time. I have doubts that it'd ever go past the fifty percent point based on comments spoken by several German journalists.
The three-year deal? Well.....from what the news folks talk about.....Greece is saying 'enough', and intends to drop the Euro but wants three years to stabilize things, and the Greeks need cash to survive this three year period. So far.....no one says how how much. From the 300-odd billion of the last effort, they survived almost five years. So logically, you'd figure we'd be talking about 150-odd billion Euro as a minimum.
I have doubts that Greece will get 150-odd billion Euro.....I have doubts that the EU would even offer 30-odd billion Euro.
As folks come up on Sunday and hear the active discussion and determine the final stage of the event.....my belief is that Greece will be offered an exit to the Euro and be able to stay within the 'zone' under some amazing umbrella of sorts. The EU will offer up some 60-to-90 day 'gift' (never to be paid back) and just say that's the end of this relationship. Greece will have to stage the Drachma return or find a second currency on its own.
Can the Drachma return in 90 days? My humble guess is yes. Contract out the service....haul the currency out to banks, and figure the right exchange rate. Prioritize your tasks and do only what is required. Huge inflation in the first year? Absolutely. Hostility by the hotels and tourist operations? Absolutely.
The thing is....no one outside of Greece believes that they can change or fix their problems. Lack of confidence now.....is a bigger problem than the crisis itself.
Wednesday, July 8, 2015
Baking or Browning
We have this legal case brewing here in Germany.....over an odd topic....when is baking....really baking?
So, this starts with the ALDI grocery chain. For Americans who aren't familiar with ALDI.....I'd describe it as a grocery operation that runs on discount to a big degree and you will find a streamlined and fairly unremarkable store operation. It's not fancy....nor modern-looking....nor designed to be appealing. It's simple, and they try to cut operational costs via every possible method that you could dream up.
ALDI had this idea a couple of years ago.....to have fresh bread. This typically means that you employ bakers, and you run some oven in the operation. My local grocery (500 ft away) has such a bakery, with two ovens and eight-part-time folks who toss the delivered dough products there, and they bake it.
Well....ALDI found that they could buy a process-system where you push a button....dough would be put onto a conveyor belt, and run through a heated system.....to be delivered a couple of minutes later as a hot bread item. Pricing was very low, which appeals to most folks.
Somewhere in this use of the process-system.....the bakers union folks got involved and asked some stupid questions. They say that this process is not baking BUT browning (the German term utilized). If true, then ALDI can't use the term 'baking' in their advertising.
So a court has this problem to discuss. Why this all matters? For centuries.....craftsmanship has been a big deal in Germany. Whether you were discussing bakers, roofers, carpenters, or butchers.....people protected their trade and expertise. When a couple of German plumbers meet....it's almost like a secret society meeting, and they sit around with beers to discuss their trade, new developments, and the future trends. ALDI has stepped into the middle of a craftsman issue. Can a machine get the same status as a craftsman?
If ALDI loses? Well.....there will have to be a sign change and some advertising switch, but I suspect that the machine-process will stay around. Face it.....if you can get the same bread at a better price than the local bakery can provide.....there will be some folks who pick ALDI over the competition.
I've actually stood there and done the ALDI bread routine. The only problem I had....was this five-minute wait to get the bread that came out.
So, this starts with the ALDI grocery chain. For Americans who aren't familiar with ALDI.....I'd describe it as a grocery operation that runs on discount to a big degree and you will find a streamlined and fairly unremarkable store operation. It's not fancy....nor modern-looking....nor designed to be appealing. It's simple, and they try to cut operational costs via every possible method that you could dream up.
ALDI had this idea a couple of years ago.....to have fresh bread. This typically means that you employ bakers, and you run some oven in the operation. My local grocery (500 ft away) has such a bakery, with two ovens and eight-part-time folks who toss the delivered dough products there, and they bake it.
Well....ALDI found that they could buy a process-system where you push a button....dough would be put onto a conveyor belt, and run through a heated system.....to be delivered a couple of minutes later as a hot bread item. Pricing was very low, which appeals to most folks.
Somewhere in this use of the process-system.....the bakers union folks got involved and asked some stupid questions. They say that this process is not baking BUT browning (the German term utilized). If true, then ALDI can't use the term 'baking' in their advertising.
So a court has this problem to discuss. Why this all matters? For centuries.....craftsmanship has been a big deal in Germany. Whether you were discussing bakers, roofers, carpenters, or butchers.....people protected their trade and expertise. When a couple of German plumbers meet....it's almost like a secret society meeting, and they sit around with beers to discuss their trade, new developments, and the future trends. ALDI has stepped into the middle of a craftsman issue. Can a machine get the same status as a craftsman?
If ALDI loses? Well.....there will have to be a sign change and some advertising switch, but I suspect that the machine-process will stay around. Face it.....if you can get the same bread at a better price than the local bakery can provide.....there will be some folks who pick ALDI over the competition.
I've actually stood there and done the ALDI bread routine. The only problem I had....was this five-minute wait to get the bread that came out.
The Meeting For Nothing Day
Everyone was hyped up for the EU-Greece emergency meeting yesterday. The agenda was.....the Greeks would show up with new proposals....talks would occur.....and maybe some miracle deal would be drafted up.
Well.....the Greeks showed up for the meeting with no new proposals. Yeah.....shocker.
What they said was.....they just didn't have the finalized new proposals list.
You can imagine the folks around this entire meeting. There's probably fifty folks in the room itself who cancelled their schedules to be at this meeting. Each of them have at least two or three support personnel who put time and effort into making sure their boss had some agenda and topics. For the building itself, there's probably another three-hundred folks who provide security and support.....same deal. All of this....for nothing.
What was to occur.....was a later introduction of the new proposals, and the strong effect of a Sunday meeting now on the schedule to either agree to the new proposals, or be prepared for plan B (the exit plan from the Euro).
I sat and watched a five-minute piece yesterday where the potential idea of the Drachma got discussed. As the finance-expert guy (British) pointed out.....it takes a minimum of six months to get to a issuance point with a new currency. With problems that might develop.....even six months might be impossible to meet on some schedule. Then the issue of inflation came up. When you swap out a currency in this case.....it's hard to predict just how quick a new currency might fall in the initial days. Then he suggested in the case of Greece.....people might just stand there and continue using the Euro....especially if dealing with tourists. So, it'd likely be a two-currency country and no one is quiet sure about the long-term effects of this situation.
An odd problem for the Euro note itself? Well, this got brought up yesterday. Euro notes have Greek symbolgy on them.....so one financial guy said that somewhere over the next year.....all of these notes would have to be swapped out with non-Greek symbology if the Greeks exit the Euro. Cost? Unknown.
I don't see much hope now for the new proposals idea. There's just too much of an expectation by the Greeks for forgiveness over the bulk of the past loan, and the necessity of a new fresh loan which might end up being simply another forgiveness episode in the future. Where the Greeks might finally stabilize, change their taxation and revenue program, and start to pay on debt.....is virtually unknown. Even if they proceed onto the Drachma scenario.....one has to question how it would ever stabilize or create a solution-atmosphere for the Greek people.
In the American use of the 'fat-lady-singing'.....I believe we are barely at the middle of act two and the fat lady is still three or four acts away from coming out and singing.
Well.....the Greeks showed up for the meeting with no new proposals. Yeah.....shocker.
What they said was.....they just didn't have the finalized new proposals list.
You can imagine the folks around this entire meeting. There's probably fifty folks in the room itself who cancelled their schedules to be at this meeting. Each of them have at least two or three support personnel who put time and effort into making sure their boss had some agenda and topics. For the building itself, there's probably another three-hundred folks who provide security and support.....same deal. All of this....for nothing.
What was to occur.....was a later introduction of the new proposals, and the strong effect of a Sunday meeting now on the schedule to either agree to the new proposals, or be prepared for plan B (the exit plan from the Euro).
I sat and watched a five-minute piece yesterday where the potential idea of the Drachma got discussed. As the finance-expert guy (British) pointed out.....it takes a minimum of six months to get to a issuance point with a new currency. With problems that might develop.....even six months might be impossible to meet on some schedule. Then the issue of inflation came up. When you swap out a currency in this case.....it's hard to predict just how quick a new currency might fall in the initial days. Then he suggested in the case of Greece.....people might just stand there and continue using the Euro....especially if dealing with tourists. So, it'd likely be a two-currency country and no one is quiet sure about the long-term effects of this situation.
An odd problem for the Euro note itself? Well, this got brought up yesterday. Euro notes have Greek symbolgy on them.....so one financial guy said that somewhere over the next year.....all of these notes would have to be swapped out with non-Greek symbology if the Greeks exit the Euro. Cost? Unknown.
I don't see much hope now for the new proposals idea. There's just too much of an expectation by the Greeks for forgiveness over the bulk of the past loan, and the necessity of a new fresh loan which might end up being simply another forgiveness episode in the future. Where the Greeks might finally stabilize, change their taxation and revenue program, and start to pay on debt.....is virtually unknown. Even if they proceed onto the Drachma scenario.....one has to question how it would ever stabilize or create a solution-atmosphere for the Greek people.
In the American use of the 'fat-lady-singing'.....I believe we are barely at the middle of act two and the fat lady is still three or four acts away from coming out and singing.
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