For several months, I've been amazed by the statistical situation with Germany and the Coronavirus. Taking the infections and the death-rate....comparing against Italy, Spain, the UK and France....it's just an amazing situation to be in Germany.
I can look in my local urban 'zone' (Wiesbaden), and since day one....population of 293k, we are now at 780 total infected, with only 84 active cases presently. The total number of deaths? 22. Most of these are over the age of 70.
Doctors and virus experts have talked about this, and they are at a loss to explain how the numbers are so low.
This week, the CDC in the US sat down and talked about the statistical situation with Comorbidity and the Covid-19 situation.
So here's the thing about the Comorbidity....it means that a doctor evaluates your records and looks over the actual cause of your death, and while the test might say you had Covid-19.....your secondary conditions (if they exist)....figure heavily into this.
An example of this would be a 300 pound guy, with severe heart problems, and COPD.....while having Covid-19....the secondary conditions all brought this guy to an early death.
So from all these US deaths....listed with Covid-19....the CDC now says that 6-percent of folks died purely from the virus, and NO secondary condition. That means 94-percent had various health issues, and those helped to bring them to an early death.
This has caused me to ponder about the general health of Germans and ask the stupid question....long before Covid-19 came along, are a serious number of Germans in great health without secondary conditions?
Week in and week out, I see various Germans with their cars parked near forest parking areas, and walking an hour or two.
Week in and week out, I see Germans hyped up on nutritional 'tricks' and eating healthy meals. My German wife emphasizes this in most of her dinners now.
Week in and week out, I see Germans consuming less sugar drinks, quitting smoking, and doing healthy aspects of life.
A scale on Comorbidity? No.....no one has devised such a tool.
Am I saying that Germans are more healthy than Italians or Spaniards? Well....I'm asking the question.
Maybe it's a radical thing, but perhaps this lower infection rate and lower death rate in Germany....is simply because of good health to start with.
Tuesday, September 1, 2020
The Fear Over Fake News?
Over the past month, a great deal of chatter has occurred in Germany over Covid-19 ban rules, and the suggestion of conspiracy or fake news.
Via SWR (regional SW public news)....the regional Evangelical Church of Baden-Württemberg has decided to get into the middle of this.
What the Church intends to do....provide guidance to members on how to handle friends, associates or relatives who are 'brain-washed' (my term) or susceptible to conspiracy chatter or fake news.
The suggestion is that ordinary people need counter-arguments to bring these poor people (the anti-Coronavirus folks) back to reality.
Generally, I would suggest religious 'instruments' are the least likely to influence people, and likely to draw harsh criticism in return conversation.
If someone did want to influence the conspiracy crowd....you'd generally go with three basic concepts:
1. In-depth conversations have to involve asking for facts, and how the facts assemble under light. But in relation to this....keeping to a tactic of only quoting public-run TV news is probably not a great tactic.
2. Grasping the impact upon people....not just mentally, but in terms of financial pains. Some people haven't seen a regular paycheck since March (short-term workers), and those are the same people who realize this will continue through all of 2020, and probably all of 2021. Simply telling someone they've been brainwashed.....doesn't terminate the pains being inflected.
3. Finally, let's be realistic....in the end, the only thing you might gain is a situation where two argumentative individuals come to agree that things are disagreeable and out-of-balance, and that you will only agree to disagree, without massive violence or dynamic government reshuffling.
The one obvious thing that comes out of this church chatter that they want to be in the middle of the discussion....is that there have never been as many non-members or non-paying members of the two major German religions, as of right now.
So if they did something really stupid, it's possible they'd chase off even more people in the end. I'm not sure that this is really helpful.
Via SWR (regional SW public news)....the regional Evangelical Church of Baden-Württemberg has decided to get into the middle of this.
What the Church intends to do....provide guidance to members on how to handle friends, associates or relatives who are 'brain-washed' (my term) or susceptible to conspiracy chatter or fake news.
The suggestion is that ordinary people need counter-arguments to bring these poor people (the anti-Coronavirus folks) back to reality.
Generally, I would suggest religious 'instruments' are the least likely to influence people, and likely to draw harsh criticism in return conversation.
If someone did want to influence the conspiracy crowd....you'd generally go with three basic concepts:
1. In-depth conversations have to involve asking for facts, and how the facts assemble under light. But in relation to this....keeping to a tactic of only quoting public-run TV news is probably not a great tactic.
2. Grasping the impact upon people....not just mentally, but in terms of financial pains. Some people haven't seen a regular paycheck since March (short-term workers), and those are the same people who realize this will continue through all of 2020, and probably all of 2021. Simply telling someone they've been brainwashed.....doesn't terminate the pains being inflected.
3. Finally, let's be realistic....in the end, the only thing you might gain is a situation where two argumentative individuals come to agree that things are disagreeable and out-of-balance, and that you will only agree to disagree, without massive violence or dynamic government reshuffling.
The one obvious thing that comes out of this church chatter that they want to be in the middle of the discussion....is that there have never been as many non-members or non-paying members of the two major German religions, as of right now.
So if they did something really stupid, it's possible they'd chase off even more people in the end. I'm not sure that this is really helpful.
Frankfurt Old Police Station Finally Settled
If you were an American and were ever stationed around Frankfurt....one of the top dozen impressive buildings of the city was the old police headquarters....about 300 meters north of the train-station (bahnhof).
Around the 1990s as the US Army vacated the city.....some of their property was consumed for a new police city headquarters. So around 2002.....the old station was vacated.
What was to be done with the building or property (15.4 hectares).....was unknown. A lot of arguments went on, and property speculation went to the maximum degree.
Around the spring of 2018, the property was finally sold to a developer. This week, the plan was laid out.
The whole station will be demolished.
What comes next? A skyscrapper in the area, 145 meters tall. A hotel, offices, some space set to reduced rent situations, etc.
A new era? Well...construction doesn't start until early 2022, and they figure at least 2026 before it's done.
Around the 1990s as the US Army vacated the city.....some of their property was consumed for a new police city headquarters. So around 2002.....the old station was vacated.
What was to be done with the building or property (15.4 hectares).....was unknown. A lot of arguments went on, and property speculation went to the maximum degree.
Around the spring of 2018, the property was finally sold to a developer. This week, the plan was laid out.
The whole station will be demolished.
What comes next? A skyscrapper in the area, 145 meters tall. A hotel, offices, some space set to reduced rent situations, etc.
A new era? Well...construction doesn't start until early 2022, and they figure at least 2026 before it's done.
2021 Elections in Germany
First, lets note that the national Bundestag/Chancellor election is set for set for September/October period of 2021. Not a precise date yet? No. It must occur by 24 October (by law). The earliest it could be held? The third week of August.
Second, the district/city election schedule for Hessen is set for 14 March. Normally, being a district election....it'd mean lesser numbers showing up.
Third, both of the states of Baden-Wurttemberg and Rhineland Pfalz are set for 14 March as well. Presently, the SPD has control in the Pfalz, and Greens have marginal control over the Baden-Wurttemberg state.
These two races probably matter a great deal in setting up the fall national election.
Fourth, the 6th of June is set for the Saxony-Anhalt state election. The odds of the AfD (far-right party) having influence? There's fairly decent odds of them getting 20-plus percent of the vote. The Covid-19 influence in this election? That's the big unknown.
Fifth, the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election is currently penciled in for September/October. This is another case where the AfD Party might have influence (maybe 20-percent or more in the vote, and the Covid-19 situation might have influence).
Sixth, Niedersachsen city/district voting occurs in the September/October period (yet to be a solid date). Normally, it wouldn't influence the national election, but it's to be held around the same time period.
Seventh, finally....we come to Berlin City's state election, penciled in for August/September (probably before the national election). In the last election, AfD managed around 14-percent. Influence of the Covid-19 chatter? That's a possibility. Currently, the SPD Party, the Greens and Linke Party manage the city's political scene.
Where this all leads onto? I would suggest three observations:
1. It's possible that virtually all of the state and city elections will be set up to occur before the national election, and turn this into a fairly dramatic period. It's also possible that the national election might be rigged in some way (with the SPD and CDU blessing it) on a earlier schedule, with most of the state/city elections coming after the national election.
2. The two elections in eastern Germany states could influence the national election.
3. All of these anti-Covid-19 demonstrations in Berlin....may influence city voting and improve AfD voting numbers.
A hectic year? Yes.
Second, the district/city election schedule for Hessen is set for 14 March. Normally, being a district election....it'd mean lesser numbers showing up.
Third, both of the states of Baden-Wurttemberg and Rhineland Pfalz are set for 14 March as well. Presently, the SPD has control in the Pfalz, and Greens have marginal control over the Baden-Wurttemberg state.
These two races probably matter a great deal in setting up the fall national election.
Fourth, the 6th of June is set for the Saxony-Anhalt state election. The odds of the AfD (far-right party) having influence? There's fairly decent odds of them getting 20-plus percent of the vote. The Covid-19 influence in this election? That's the big unknown.
Fifth, the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election is currently penciled in for September/October. This is another case where the AfD Party might have influence (maybe 20-percent or more in the vote, and the Covid-19 situation might have influence).
Sixth, Niedersachsen city/district voting occurs in the September/October period (yet to be a solid date). Normally, it wouldn't influence the national election, but it's to be held around the same time period.
Seventh, finally....we come to Berlin City's state election, penciled in for August/September (probably before the national election). In the last election, AfD managed around 14-percent. Influence of the Covid-19 chatter? That's a possibility. Currently, the SPD Party, the Greens and Linke Party manage the city's political scene.
Where this all leads onto? I would suggest three observations:
1. It's possible that virtually all of the state and city elections will be set up to occur before the national election, and turn this into a fairly dramatic period. It's also possible that the national election might be rigged in some way (with the SPD and CDU blessing it) on a earlier schedule, with most of the state/city elections coming after the national election.
2. The two elections in eastern Germany states could influence the national election.
3. All of these anti-Covid-19 demonstrations in Berlin....may influence city voting and improve AfD voting numbers.
A hectic year? Yes.
Ban on Singing?
The next ban?
Well....ARD public news says that the state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) has decided this week to ban singing in school classrooms.
Yeah....it's pretty radical.
The singing ban will 'stick' for about two months, and then another review will occur.
Singing in public? The ban rule says that as long as you are in some arena, auditorium or outdoors....it's ok to sing.
PE activities on track? Yes, but only if you conduct it out-of-doors. What happens as you approach winter? Unknown.
Well....ARD public news says that the state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) has decided this week to ban singing in school classrooms.
Yeah....it's pretty radical.
The singing ban will 'stick' for about two months, and then another review will occur.
Singing in public? The ban rule says that as long as you are in some arena, auditorium or outdoors....it's ok to sing.
PE activities on track? Yes, but only if you conduct it out-of-doors. What happens as you approach winter? Unknown.
Crocodile in Local Waters?
Well....yes.
According to HR (our public TV network)....a local from the town of Ortenberg saw the Croc on Thursday of last week....near the stream of the "Bleiche" in the Bergheim area.
Ortenberg is about 30 km NE of Frankfurt.
My humble guess is that some local guy had the animal as a 'pet' and it reached the point that he couldn't house it anymore, and 'dumped' it into this stream.
Winter resolving this potential threat? A normal harsh winter would probably take care of the issue. But I would imagine at least a dozen folks out looking for him this weekend.
According to HR (our public TV network)....a local from the town of Ortenberg saw the Croc on Thursday of last week....near the stream of the "Bleiche" in the Bergheim area.
Ortenberg is about 30 km NE of Frankfurt.
My humble guess is that some local guy had the animal as a 'pet' and it reached the point that he couldn't house it anymore, and 'dumped' it into this stream.
Winter resolving this potential threat? A normal harsh winter would probably take care of the issue. But I would imagine at least a dozen folks out looking for him this weekend.
Airport Woes
Frankfurt Airport recovering in this Covid-19 era? Marginally.
HR, our regional public channel, did a report over this.
Right now, with the numbers....over the past week, 320k passengers transited through the airport.
That's around 20-percent of the normal load, compared to previous years.
Terminal Two? Still shutdown.
Around the region, the hope is that some significant recovery will be seen by May 2021....maybe up to the 50-to-60 percent of normal traffic. A lot depends on this 'Jesus-vaccine' idea and the ban rules lessening a lot.
HR, our regional public channel, did a report over this.
Right now, with the numbers....over the past week, 320k passengers transited through the airport.
That's around 20-percent of the normal load, compared to previous years.
Terminal Two? Still shutdown.
Around the region, the hope is that some significant recovery will be seen by May 2021....maybe up to the 50-to-60 percent of normal traffic. A lot depends on this 'Jesus-vaccine' idea and the ban rules lessening a lot.
Who or What are the Reich Protesters?
In recent weeks in Germany.....mostly around Berlin, anti-Covid-19 protests have occurred, and the chief group running them are Reichsbürgers (Reich 'citizens'). It has the government (both at the Berlin-City level, and nationally) disturbed and worried.
So for a non-German, this is a basic introduction.
As Germany emerged out of WW I (1919), with the Kaiser gone, the Weimar Constitution was written and a federalized government came into reality.
It had various elements of political disaster built into the parties of the era....from far-left wing to far-right wing.
In 1933, the Nazi apparatus took over the government, and this element ceased in 1945. In 1949, with approval of the US, France, and UK.....a new Constitution was drafted and approved. The Weimar period basically ceased to exist.
At some point in the 1970s, a treaty was drafted and signed by the East Germans and the West Germans, with the German Constitutional Court talking over legal implications, and noting some reference to the old Weimar Constitution. It was more of a historical note, than a legal note. But in that small context, this element is left on the table to suggest that the Weimar Constitution lives on (it doesn't).
So around the mid-1980s in West Germany.....we have this German (Wolfgang Gerhard Günter Ebel) who stands up and says that 1919 Reich standards and elements still exist. The Weimar Republic Constitution never dissolved, at least in his mind. He starts a 'club' and folks gather around this idea. One single guy starting this fringe group? Yes.
Right-wing? YES. Attracting mostly men? Yes. In this original stage....mostly interest from Bavaria? Yes. Nazis? Well, this part of the discussion is debatable. Some journalists and historians will say that even the true neo-Nazis in Germany 'laugh' over the Reich 'citizen' movement (they don't take them serious).
After unification? Well, this gets more interesting....a fair number of East German men drifted into the idea, and attached themselves to it.
How many Reich 'citizens' exist? This is debatable too. In terms of actual groups (paying members)....the number probably doesn't exceed 10,000 (at least before the Covid-19 episode came along). Some journalists will hype it being closer to 20k, but you can't really see any true evidence to this.
Are all the anti-Covid-19 protesters Reich members? No, you can't prove that point either. Some obviously are....because of the flags and symbology used in the protests.
Is the movement growing? According to the Protection of the Constitution folks, yes....they say definitely more than a decade ago...the numbers were going up.
The internet and social media helping? No doubt.
I might suggest though, there are probably three levels to 'members'. There are definitely associated club membership. There's probably people (non-members) who routinely like to protest and see it as a social occasion to be around like-minded people. And then there's probably the group who are drifting into an agenda that fits their political goals.
So why is the government hyped up and worried? I think this goes to three basic issues:
1. There's several state elections next year, along with the national election. Everyone had their agenda built along certain lines. You don't want some wildcard group showing up and challenging you into silly ban rule discussions....which Covid-19 would be a harsh reality in an election.
2. If you look over the weekend images from Berlin (38k protesters)....I'd say at least 60-percent were under the age of forty, and included a lot of women. The legendary status of Reich 'citizens' were that they were mostly all male and over the age of fifty. This youth development challenges the model that journalists have talked about for several decades.
3. Finally, you come to this quiet discussion going on....that a fair number of police around Germany.....are potential Reich 'citizen' supporters. Maybe it's true....maybe it's only a couple dozen nationally. Factual data doesn't exist, and this probably does worry the national authorities.
Bottom line? As silly as it sounds....this leads back to the Weimar Republic of 1919, and some marginal Constitutional judge 'chat' from the early 1970s talking over one single treaty between East and West Germany. Frankly, the symbology of the pictures at the Reichstag....worries the hell out of German politicians. And if Covid-19 issues trigger a massive layoff period or downsizing of the economy? It boosters the Reich 'citizen' agenda.
It ought to be a one-star comedy, and instead is a two-star drama that has started to develop.
So for a non-German, this is a basic introduction.
As Germany emerged out of WW I (1919), with the Kaiser gone, the Weimar Constitution was written and a federalized government came into reality.
It had various elements of political disaster built into the parties of the era....from far-left wing to far-right wing.
In 1933, the Nazi apparatus took over the government, and this element ceased in 1945. In 1949, with approval of the US, France, and UK.....a new Constitution was drafted and approved. The Weimar period basically ceased to exist.
At some point in the 1970s, a treaty was drafted and signed by the East Germans and the West Germans, with the German Constitutional Court talking over legal implications, and noting some reference to the old Weimar Constitution. It was more of a historical note, than a legal note. But in that small context, this element is left on the table to suggest that the Weimar Constitution lives on (it doesn't).
So around the mid-1980s in West Germany.....we have this German (Wolfgang Gerhard Günter Ebel) who stands up and says that 1919 Reich standards and elements still exist. The Weimar Republic Constitution never dissolved, at least in his mind. He starts a 'club' and folks gather around this idea. One single guy starting this fringe group? Yes.
Right-wing? YES. Attracting mostly men? Yes. In this original stage....mostly interest from Bavaria? Yes. Nazis? Well, this part of the discussion is debatable. Some journalists and historians will say that even the true neo-Nazis in Germany 'laugh' over the Reich 'citizen' movement (they don't take them serious).
After unification? Well, this gets more interesting....a fair number of East German men drifted into the idea, and attached themselves to it.
How many Reich 'citizens' exist? This is debatable too. In terms of actual groups (paying members)....the number probably doesn't exceed 10,000 (at least before the Covid-19 episode came along). Some journalists will hype it being closer to 20k, but you can't really see any true evidence to this.
Are all the anti-Covid-19 protesters Reich members? No, you can't prove that point either. Some obviously are....because of the flags and symbology used in the protests.
Is the movement growing? According to the Protection of the Constitution folks, yes....they say definitely more than a decade ago...the numbers were going up.
The internet and social media helping? No doubt.
I might suggest though, there are probably three levels to 'members'. There are definitely associated club membership. There's probably people (non-members) who routinely like to protest and see it as a social occasion to be around like-minded people. And then there's probably the group who are drifting into an agenda that fits their political goals.
So why is the government hyped up and worried? I think this goes to three basic issues:
1. There's several state elections next year, along with the national election. Everyone had their agenda built along certain lines. You don't want some wildcard group showing up and challenging you into silly ban rule discussions....which Covid-19 would be a harsh reality in an election.
2. If you look over the weekend images from Berlin (38k protesters)....I'd say at least 60-percent were under the age of forty, and included a lot of women. The legendary status of Reich 'citizens' were that they were mostly all male and over the age of fifty. This youth development challenges the model that journalists have talked about for several decades.
3. Finally, you come to this quiet discussion going on....that a fair number of police around Germany.....are potential Reich 'citizen' supporters. Maybe it's true....maybe it's only a couple dozen nationally. Factual data doesn't exist, and this probably does worry the national authorities.
Bottom line? As silly as it sounds....this leads back to the Weimar Republic of 1919, and some marginal Constitutional judge 'chat' from the early 1970s talking over one single treaty between East and West Germany. Frankly, the symbology of the pictures at the Reichstag....worries the hell out of German politicians. And if Covid-19 issues trigger a massive layoff period or downsizing of the economy? It boosters the Reich 'citizen' agenda.
It ought to be a one-star comedy, and instead is a two-star drama that has started to develop.
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