Q-and-A: 15 Apr 2022

 1.  Germans flipping this crisis period into a government-directed energy savings discussion?

Well....yeah.  The Vice-Chancellor/Economics Minister (Robert Habeck, Green Party) went to hyping up an agenda yesterday.  This goes with the chatter of the natural gas situation and the Ukraine war.

He says that Germans ought to be seeking ways to save energy.....thus being less attached to Russian oil/natural gas.

Will this lead to road speeds for the autobahns?  More than likely.  I tend to view some 120/130 kph limit coming by mid-summer, and probably even a 90 kph limit for state roads (where it's 100 kph currently).  It'll be worked as a temp measure for one year in my humble opinion.

2.  The Moskva (their key ship in the Black Sea) did finally sink from the explosion business yesterday.  The initial damage didn't really sink it.  Based on reports.....they'd called up for a tug or two....to haul the vessel to port.  In the midst of this operation...balance of the vessel was 'lost', and it simply sank.  I spent 10 minutes looking around for video of the situation....so far....none.  

A big deal?  Whatever remains of the fleet in this area....is probably going to pull back further from the coastal area....in fear.

3.  These intimidation threats against Sweden and Finland on the idea of joining NATO?

What you tend to see is juvenile-like chatter from the upper levels of the Kremlin, and simply solidifying the belief for Sweden and Finland.  Paperwork drill is the only thing left and I think the submission will be done by early June.  In the old days....there might have been six months of approval-process....currently, I think NATO has the 'rubber-stamp' for approval already done, and it'll take less than 24 hours to approve their paperwork.  Afterwards, the Finns will break out the vodka, and everyone will have a shot, or two, or three.

Kidnapping Lauterbach?

 Weirdest story of the year for Germany.

Some plot was uncovered.....a dozen Germans (all over 40)....hatching a plot to kidnap the Health Minister (Lauterbach).

Once this came online....to suggest the next phase....cops were 'watching' and offered up two machine guns and five pistols.  Deal was made, and then arrests were made.

All the anti-Covid crowd?  Yep.

N-TV has the basic story....worth a read.

Charges?  No one says much but I would take a guess....each will get a minimum of five years in a fed prison.....just over their Covid feelings.

New Federal Minister

 Green Party announced this afternoon the new Federal Minister for Family Affairs....Lisa Paus.  

Her background?  Financial person....budget-builder.    But no really cares....she fills the slot that had half of the party freaked out.  

Ukraine's Claim Over Tanks Destroyed?

 This morning, the Ukrainians claimed that 753 tanks have been destroyed.  BS-factor?  Well....I'd give a '5'....you just can't be sure.

I originally thought they meant like tanks and APCs in one category....but no, APCs are in a separate category (1,968 total destroyed on that claim).

Dead troops for Russia?  That claim goes to around 19,900.  

So here's my problem here.....lets assume that this is 50-percent accurate (I'm willing to go that far). 

But to say that and then say the lost planes/helicopters and boats gone as well?  That's a serious loss.

If the report were 90-percent accurate?  You'd start to see this as a Iraq repeat....where they lost so much equipment....they were not in a position to ever fight a legit war again.

You put the Kremlin crew in a tough position.  They need to replace 600-plus tanks....with an economy that is dismal to start with but seriously screwed now because of sanctions.  The 19,000 lost men?  That doesn't include wounded or those captured.

I'm more likely to believe that this is a bit bogus, but it just might be about two-thirds of the true losses, and that's serious in admitting.  

Russia Chatter

 Early in the AM today....major threat issued by Russia to Finland/Sweden....that Russia could escalate this 'join-NATO' business to a nuke stage.

Stupid threat to make, and it only damages the perception of the two countries over Russia.  

The 150-odd Russian Agent Story

 This week....Putin apparently fired around 150-odd FSB (former KGB) staff folks.  All out of one single division.

Some were simply fired....some were arrested, and at least 20 had their homes raided.

What's going on?  Well....Putin has reached the level where he questions everything he's told.  Fear existing for twenty years.....to only tell Putin what he wants to hear?  Yeah....in a simple way....the 150-odd FSB folks prepared the Ukraine special military operation to be a failure...to make Putin 'happy'.

What do you do as a 35-year-old FSB agent who has been fired?  Well....there's just not much to be gained with that type of resume.

Added to your woes....if your home was raided....they are probably looking at your personal wealth (that boat....that BMW you bought two years ago....the wife's fake boob surgery...etc).

My humble belief?  Those guys who weren't arrested?  I'd have the bags packed and drive toward some border to exit the country.  I'd go to France, Germany, the UK or US....to offer my expertise/knowledge.

But here's the odd thing.....you basically have to go into this division and rebuild it from scratch.  Would you even submit your resume for the job?  If you were ordered to work in the division....would you accept or immediately look for some path out of Russia?

From a manpower prospective....Putin has created a massive toxic element for this one single FSB division.  They have to make him happy, and in doing so....create a serious future problem to brew.  

It's kind of funny now.....just about everything that Putin has touched.....has a serious problem going on now.  

RTL TV Show: The Passion

 Last night, RTL (commercial German TV network) ran a live production musical....called 'The Passion'.

Yes, the Jesus-story....live....musical.  

First, I would say it's remarkable that they had the guts/courage to run this 90-minute piece in a live-format.  As far as I could see....nothing failed.

Location?  Essen.....central party of the city.  

Lot of celebrates?  Oh, I would guess at least fifty-odd folks were in the background.

Music used?  Mostly all German/Austrian pop songs from the past twenty years.

More of an experiment?  I would suggest that it's one of the weirdest ideas to come up with.....doing this in some central area of a city, and running the whole thing live.  There had to be at least thirty different cameras involved.  

Opening a door for future attempts?  Maybe.  

Q-and-A: 14 Apr 2022

 1.  Is there a scandal brewing with the German President (Steinmeier)?

Well....not exactly a scandal, but a problem.  

There was talk two weeks ago that Germany's Steinmeier would go and visit Kiev.  It's not that he can do much....but just show support, have pictures taken, and take a list of things that Ukraine needed.  

Ukraine's President (Zelenskyy) said 'no', and has repeated the 'no' on several occasions.  Most of the German politicians are invited...Steinmeier is NOT invited.  Why?  This goes to a long standing problem for about a dozen-odd bigwigs within the SPD Party, and the topic of Ostpolitik.

Ostpolitik?  This was a phrase/policy created in the 1960s by SPD's Willy Brandt, and it was supposed to be a 'path' or doorway for friendly relations with the USSR to exist.  What it typically meant was a lot of friendly meetings (over and over), with pictures taken, and hyped views by journalists that the evil USSR could be reformed.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall....Ostpolitik continued, but in a modified form. The sense now was that the evil Russia/questionable Putin....could be reformed.

Certain SPD folks play a key role, and Steinmeier is a major player in this political action.

Some will say that 'useful idiot' philosophy fell into play here....that various SPD folks were just plain stupid in their belief.

The problem is.....Steinmeier can't really discuss this no-invite situation because it brings up the Ostpolitik gimmick and how it failed miserably.

2.  Russian flagship on the Black Sea....heavily damaged?  All that is clear on this....some explosive on the ship blew up.  The ship isn't sinking but it's not going to be operational for months (if they do go and repair it).

3.  Serious questions exist over the radiation levels in Chernobyl.  They'd like to test things and get some assessments.  But there's this problem.  The central server which would process all this information....isn't there.  Yes, it was one of those things that the Conscripts of Russia took.  

N-TV covered a good bit of this story.

But they added this one segment to the story.....talking over the 133 'samples' of radioactivity which were locked up and secure....but now are 'gone'.  War souvenirs?  More than likely, but they point out.....each one of these present a remarkable danger to whoever took them.

Getting this server problem fixed?  This might take weeks.

4.  In central Ukraine, in the city of Knipro.....Ukrainian soldiers have retaken the area.  What they say (BS-factor I put on this is '2') is that they have around 1,500 dead Russians laying in the morgues around the city.  They've invited the mothers of the Russians to come and pick up their sons.

It's a pretty crappy mess, and obviously...Putin's people don't care.  If they get involved.....it's probably to just take possession and dig one deep massive pit....to dump the bodies all into the same hole.