This week, an amusing piece was put out by the US Treasury....aiming at Germany and it's economy. It's a short piece....which basically says....Germany is exporting more than it's importing, and this is all negative for Europe and the rest of the world. There's a few pie charts, graphs, and detailed lines to lay out some objective economic analysis.
The general problem with economics....this being spoken by a guy from Bama.....is that you could have a thousand economists meeting in Miami and asked to explain some problem, and there would be a thousand different answers to the problem.
There are economists who would tell you that Wal-Mart's general business strategy plan....was all screwed up and has threatened the stability of America. Some economists would say that Wal-Mart's strategy is the most brilliant plan in fifty years, and helping to stabilize America.
It's a sad fact.....economists aren't much in terms of facts, reliability, or stability. One day, their ideas could win them a Nobel Prize for Economics, and the next month....they'd be noted as idiots. One twenty-year old kid could devise a simple math and business formula.....build some stupid platform for people to interact with friends in terms of the internet.....think it's worth a ton of money, and the plain truth is that it's a fifty-cent idea at best, yet economists would marvel at the suggestion of profits possibly coming off this concept.
So we come back to Germany.
Ten simple facts....from a guy who has lived off and on in Germany.
First, going to one-united currency in Europe was a threat to the stability of the Germans and French. The deck of cards was being loaded with losers, and both knew it back in 2000. Yet, they continued on with the losers in the deck. The general reason today why the Euro is still stable? Germany, period. So they've gotten some unintended respect. Yeah, they are the fifty-thousand pound anchor. Other nations disliking that? Pretend to have a better currency and leave. I just don't see anyone at the door to exit.
Second, wages are stagnant in Germany. They've been stagnant for several years. It doesn't matter if you work for private industry or the government. Ahead of their neighbors? Yeah. Without the wage increases, they are now tapping on the door and admitting they can buy things for the same price....yet with German quality. Yeah, you can make really cheap tennis shoes in Vietnam.....with cheap labor. Well....the Germans figured the scheme to build products that people want.....with reasonable labor, unlike their neighbors.
Third, German banks have expectations. With the 2008 US stumble and banks failing all over the place.....the Germans only had a couple of banks that dissolved or went into chaos. They didn't create some Congressional committee to whip up some Frank-Dodd masterpieces. They simply emerged, carried on, and avoided the general stumbles that American banks suffered.
Fourth, for some stupid reason.....German quality matters. If you had a choice of buying a German septic tank for a higher than normal price, but knew that it'd be around for thirty years.....you just might buy a German-made septic tank. A fault of the Germans? No. I noted this morning that some idiot wanted to highlight that France and Italy manufacture upscale luxury brand items. Regular people don't buy luxury items. When a regular guy shops.....if he's intending to buy something of quality that won't be screwed up on day six of operation.....he buys German. The water faucet made in Germany? It probably won't fail for twenty-plus years. The water faucet made in Bakersfield? Well...if you get four good years out of it....you'd be happy.
Fifth, competition is the cornerstone of capitalism. If you don't compete, or just perform fake competition for the benefit of the viewers.....then don't expect real results. Germans tend to compete. They want to build the best items.....sell them for a reasonable price....and come back tomorrow to build and sell more. Talk is cheap for a German, unless you back it up with actions.
Sixth, austerity. Germans tend to get down in the weeds and describe austerity as buying only what is necessary....at the best price....and not wasting one's money. Austerity means you buy a product that has a tendency to be around for years. Austerity means you pay for your vacation with cash, not credit cards. Austerity means you get a couple of extra years out of your used car, building up a cash reserve, and smartly buy its replacement one day. Austerity means you eat out.....only when you can afford it. Austerity means you buy heavily on discounted-priced items, and don't load the cart up with regular-priced items. Austerity means you go only to the theater when you really do have money budgeted for it.
Seventh, food scandals tend to be a normal theme for most countries. Compared to most countries....Germans has tended to avoid these episodes. There's a handful that could be brought up (like the horse-meat episode of last year), but generally.....food scandals are rare. Consumers in other countries tend to know this. You could laugh over the general public worry about food scandals....but the Germans don't laugh, and have made this a point in their sales. Someone down the line buys into that effort.
Eighth, reckless spending....from the private individual to the state. It might be difficult to get across to an American, but Germans tend to frown on reckless spending. There are a number of bankruptcy episodes occurring on a daily basis in Germany....but it tends to be of a lesser nature than in the US. Of course, the attitude for a German might be to avoid bankruptcy at all cost, while the attitude of the American is that bankruptcy is always "plan b". Then you bring up reckless spending within the federal budget.....bridges built with no value....grants given to study butterfly traffic in Brazil....airports built to significant standards but only serving forty passengers a day. The list goes on and on. Germans have some element of reckless spending as well (the new airport up in Kassel and the oddball job in Berlin). But overall, it's just not at the same level.
Ninth, Germany has this odd success rate with small and medium-sized family-run business operations. You can drive around any town or city, and note business operations that are on the second, third, fourth, and fifth generation of a family. The blunt truth is that these operations are geared to long-term survivability, not simple fix-it-today strategy episodes. You don't see operations appearing out of thin-air....dissolving five years later....with a family operation.
Tenth, the plain truth is that no one much in Germany listens to the US Treasury anymore. Call it a lack of respect, or just a nod to the idea that genius in the Treasury has come and gone.....times have changed. The US Treasury has been told a thousand issues with the US economy. So far, no one much there has taken off to find a job solution in the US, fixed the broken nature of US banks, figured out the way out for thousands of homes below value and tied to people who can't escape ownership, and found the magical way of providing cheap health insurance across the nation. In fact, there's not that the US Treasury can produce....except reports to knock other nations and their economic policies.
So I finally come to the last comment of this US Treasury report hitting on Germany. It would be curious to know which gifted recent graduate of Harvard Economics School....was detailed the job of writing this report, and how many hours he or she put into the project. It'd also be curious to know how many spreadsheets had to be reviewed.....to finally find one that works with this report.....and if he knows anything about global warming. They might need his services over there to write a new fictional piece to show both global warming and global cooling....on the same day....in the same cow field, while observing the one cow chip.
Sunday, November 3, 2013
Tea Pot Boiling
Quietly, without very much notice....Germany and Brazil are having meetings between their UN representative leadership and sending comments back and forth between their countries. They are working on a UN resolution....which leads back to the Snowden and NSA mess.
The resolution? It's basically a anti-spy piece of writing, which would say it's a terrible thing to spy on neighbors, and would call for an international standard in privacy of information. It will be presented in time for the UN to read and vote upon.
You can figure with 180-odd countries.....this might get some attention. The most noted country who would vote against it? The US. Other countries with issues on it? North Korea and a few dictatorships. China? Well, in this case....I'd put up the argument that they'd vote for it while they really wouldn't ever support it.
Yeah, it's a pretty hard slap on the US, and would likely drive things further apart.
If you were writing the script for US forces to finally be removed from Germany....this would all start to fall into place and be part of the script. It's hard to say if this was orchestrated months ago by whoever was behind Snowden, or if this was all an accidental thing just waiting to happen.
The curious thing? There would have to be some comment by the White House over why they can't support the anti-spying resolution, and it'll be a interesting and creative piece of writing. Maybe it'll actually make sense. Well, maybe.
The resolution? It's basically a anti-spy piece of writing, which would say it's a terrible thing to spy on neighbors, and would call for an international standard in privacy of information. It will be presented in time for the UN to read and vote upon.
You can figure with 180-odd countries.....this might get some attention. The most noted country who would vote against it? The US. Other countries with issues on it? North Korea and a few dictatorships. China? Well, in this case....I'd put up the argument that they'd vote for it while they really wouldn't ever support it.
Yeah, it's a pretty hard slap on the US, and would likely drive things further apart.
If you were writing the script for US forces to finally be removed from Germany....this would all start to fall into place and be part of the script. It's hard to say if this was orchestrated months ago by whoever was behind Snowden, or if this was all an accidental thing just waiting to happen.
The curious thing? There would have to be some comment by the White House over why they can't support the anti-spying resolution, and it'll be a interesting and creative piece of writing. Maybe it'll actually make sense. Well, maybe.
Friday, November 1, 2013
The American Arms
For decades, it was the US Army hotel in Wiesbaden and thousands of folks traveled through the region and stayed a night or two at the hotel. Some spent a month or two....waiting for an on-post apartment.
I spent three visits at the hotel, and always rated it as a decent place. After 9-11, they pumped up security and it became more of a problem to use or even think about parking near.
A couple of years ago, the Army got funding and built an entirely new hotel on post. The American Arms? Quietly shut down, and the work is in progress to turn the property over to the Germans.
I passed by the site yesterday and spent a few minutes gazing over the old building. The grounds? Kept in decent condition and regularly cut grass. The building itself? I'd say it needs some maintenance but it's probably an easy building to work up and develop.
The question is....what would the Germans do with the grounds? Level the entire building and sell off the real estate? It's possible....but this is a multi-million Euro street. Every house is well over a hundred years old and prime real estate. Fixing it as an affordable apartment building? It'd be into the tens of millions to upgrade it for German satisfaction.
It's more or less a legacy to this era where Americans were a major part of the city of Wiesbaden.....when times were better and we were good neighbors.
My fondest memory of the hotel? I had to attend some conference in the mid-80s and around midnight....some idiot called a bomb threat into the hotel. Within twenty minutes we were all dragged out in the middle of some winter night to stand there in freezing weather. Ten minutes later, German buses from the city started to show up and everyone piled on and stayed warm for an hour while a team checked the building. The city never charged for the service, as far as I knew, and did it as a practical good-neighbor policy.
Volunteers of a Different Nature
The Rhein-Zeitung put out this article....which is an interesting piece over a recently developed custom in Germany....particularly in the Saarland area.
Funerals in Germany now occur.....where an older gentleman or lady has passed on, and no relatives or friends attend the funeral. An American would be quizative and ask stupid questions.
The trend tended to lead back to a generation which grew up in tight circumstances, and limited friendships were made. Sadly, a German could be married...go through life.....see his wife pass on....and be able at age seventy to count only two or three friends within his circle. Cousins, relatives, church-members, neighbors, associates? Because of the German habit of tight friendship circles.....they were on the outer boundary.
So as this older German has reached an age with almost none of his tight circle around.....there is the death and the funeral. Sadly, it's the minister, and an organist who show up at the graveyard chapel and conduct the ceremony. So the locals in the Saarland started a campaign where they asked for volunteers to come and attend.
You'd shake your head, and note how American circumstances are quiet different. No one would ever show up at a stranger's funeral. Well.....it's gotten to the point here, where the minister questions this empty chapel and the trend.
There are, according to the newspaper.....roughly twenty funerals a year in this town of Laubach....where no relatives can be found. No sons, no daughters, no cousins, no relatives, period. This German has died as a stranger in a community....that they lived in for years....if not decades.
It's hard for an American to envision this. Someone working their entire life. Someone likely in their seventies or eighties. Death finally comes. And there is a funeral with no real audience. The guy or gal probably deserved more.....but it's cultural standard of a tight circle of friends, and most of them have all passed.
Funerals in Germany now occur.....where an older gentleman or lady has passed on, and no relatives or friends attend the funeral. An American would be quizative and ask stupid questions.
The trend tended to lead back to a generation which grew up in tight circumstances, and limited friendships were made. Sadly, a German could be married...go through life.....see his wife pass on....and be able at age seventy to count only two or three friends within his circle. Cousins, relatives, church-members, neighbors, associates? Because of the German habit of tight friendship circles.....they were on the outer boundary.
So as this older German has reached an age with almost none of his tight circle around.....there is the death and the funeral. Sadly, it's the minister, and an organist who show up at the graveyard chapel and conduct the ceremony. So the locals in the Saarland started a campaign where they asked for volunteers to come and attend.
You'd shake your head, and note how American circumstances are quiet different. No one would ever show up at a stranger's funeral. Well.....it's gotten to the point here, where the minister questions this empty chapel and the trend.
There are, according to the newspaper.....roughly twenty funerals a year in this town of Laubach....where no relatives can be found. No sons, no daughters, no cousins, no relatives, period. This German has died as a stranger in a community....that they lived in for years....if not decades.
It's hard for an American to envision this. Someone working their entire life. Someone likely in their seventies or eighties. Death finally comes. And there is a funeral with no real audience. The guy or gal probably deserved more.....but it's cultural standard of a tight circle of friends, and most of them have all passed.
Germans and Halloween
Generally, it's referred to as "All Saints Day".....which leads back strangely enough....to Martin Luther and his fight-to-the-death with the Catholic Church. This is the day in 1517 that a written war of sorts started and ended the Catholic Church domination of German society. So, there is a remembrance of sorts.....over the spirits of the dead.
The occasion eventually brought in some ceremony of sorts, and sweets. For several hundred years....it was a simple affair. The American commerization kinda changed things.....but Germany has lagged behind the American extreme of the night.
Trick or treat enthusiasts? In the average German town......you might have a couple of kids who put on some make-up and a suit, and do it. But it's not really a big trend.
Costume parties? Well, it's started....but it's not a big trend.
Halloween movies or such? Well.....it's started, but it's not a big trend. Last night, they featured the Walking Dead zombie series....but only after 11PM.
Maybe in twenty years....Germans might eventually catch up. Times change....people change....cultures change. The amusing part of this story? All leads back to Martin Luther....who probably would be shaking his head today over some silly created tradition.
The occasion eventually brought in some ceremony of sorts, and sweets. For several hundred years....it was a simple affair. The American commerization kinda changed things.....but Germany has lagged behind the American extreme of the night.
Trick or treat enthusiasts? In the average German town......you might have a couple of kids who put on some make-up and a suit, and do it. But it's not really a big trend.
Costume parties? Well, it's started....but it's not a big trend.
Halloween movies or such? Well.....it's started, but it's not a big trend. Last night, they featured the Walking Dead zombie series....but only after 11PM.
Maybe in twenty years....Germans might eventually catch up. Times change....people change....cultures change. The amusing part of this story? All leads back to Martin Luther....who probably would be shaking his head today over some silly created tradition.
The Interview
Last night, on ZDF (channel 2)....they finally had an interview with the US ambassador to Germany. It was a seven-minute chat....five or six questions thrown at Ambassador John B. Emerson.
To be honest, I think the ambassador did little to nothing to calm the nerves of most Germans. He came off in a very friendly manner and went through various points of how the US intends to get to the bottom of this recent NSA event.
The ZDF guy? He needled in on the ambassador.....after the comment was made that the embassy served the American and German people. The commentator came quickly back and asked if NSA folks were on the embassy staff. That was a question that the ambassador didn't want to answer.
Who is Ambassador Emerson? Well....to be honest...he's not a professional-type ambassador. This job is like forty other ambassador jobs....given only to political appointees, not real State Department folks.
Emerson served throughout the 1990s as a political connection to the Clinton campaign efforts. He's an investment banker. The only two topics that he can talk greatly on.....politics and banking operations. In this case, he's in pretty deep to various topics that require a great deal of discretion and competence.
My humble guess is that the administration finally has realized the degree of this screw-up with NSA and the Germans. Maybe for the next week....various interviews will occur and someone will try to explain how this was wrongly understood. The problem is.....Germans just aren't buying into innocence.
Maybe if Bill Clinton showed up and waltzed around Germany for a month.....telling old jokes and speaking volumes on the evil Republicans.....maybe something could shift to the positive. Right now? I just wouldn't bet on this mess clearing up soon, and possibly getting worse.
To be honest, I think the ambassador did little to nothing to calm the nerves of most Germans. He came off in a very friendly manner and went through various points of how the US intends to get to the bottom of this recent NSA event.
The ZDF guy? He needled in on the ambassador.....after the comment was made that the embassy served the American and German people. The commentator came quickly back and asked if NSA folks were on the embassy staff. That was a question that the ambassador didn't want to answer.
Who is Ambassador Emerson? Well....to be honest...he's not a professional-type ambassador. This job is like forty other ambassador jobs....given only to political appointees, not real State Department folks.
Emerson served throughout the 1990s as a political connection to the Clinton campaign efforts. He's an investment banker. The only two topics that he can talk greatly on.....politics and banking operations. In this case, he's in pretty deep to various topics that require a great deal of discretion and competence.
My humble guess is that the administration finally has realized the degree of this screw-up with NSA and the Germans. Maybe for the next week....various interviews will occur and someone will try to explain how this was wrongly understood. The problem is.....Germans just aren't buying into innocence.
Maybe if Bill Clinton showed up and waltzed around Germany for a month.....telling old jokes and speaking volumes on the evil Republicans.....maybe something could shift to the positive. Right now? I just wouldn't bet on this mess clearing up soon, and possibly getting worse.
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Germans and Electricity Woes
News reports in Germany indicate this idea of a nuclear power plant insurance policy.....is moving ahead. The general concept is that some cost would simply be passed along to consumers, and some billion-Euro policy would be created. In the event of massive chaos and complete failure, the policy would pay out and help the government pay for the problems.
Now, a guy could look at this for a while and believe in some ethical true values for such a policy. Course, then logic would kick in.
This policy would be completely paid by the consumer....nothing by the company itself. No one has grasped this....but it has to be a fairly substantial amount over a ten-year period for a family to donate their part into the pot of money.
Then we come to this oddball situation. There's a firm belief that all nuke plants in Germany will be shut off within ten to fifteen years. Things could change, but currently....that's the plan. What happens to this billion-Euro pot of money then? If I were guessing...the government intends to absorb the money and march onto some other chaotic planning episode, where the billion disappears quickly....with no oversight.
It's a gimmick fund.....let there be no doubt about that.
Another note that accompanies this entire story.....utility prices are expected to continue on the six-percent a year climb. Some speculate even at the ten-percent a year pace. If you were wondering about German grumbling over energy costs? Well....yeah, there's a fair amount of negative talk and people are to the point of turning off lights, buying new refrigerators with lower energy usage, and doing the impossible in using less energy.
Then at the backdoor of this mess....there's the battery-car business which is about to erupt. In a decade, you can envision twenty percent of all cars in Germany being plugged into some electrical box and charged up. Where does this power come from? And just how expensive will power be around 2020?
Now, a guy could look at this for a while and believe in some ethical true values for such a policy. Course, then logic would kick in.
This policy would be completely paid by the consumer....nothing by the company itself. No one has grasped this....but it has to be a fairly substantial amount over a ten-year period for a family to donate their part into the pot of money.
Then we come to this oddball situation. There's a firm belief that all nuke plants in Germany will be shut off within ten to fifteen years. Things could change, but currently....that's the plan. What happens to this billion-Euro pot of money then? If I were guessing...the government intends to absorb the money and march onto some other chaotic planning episode, where the billion disappears quickly....with no oversight.
It's a gimmick fund.....let there be no doubt about that.
Another note that accompanies this entire story.....utility prices are expected to continue on the six-percent a year climb. Some speculate even at the ten-percent a year pace. If you were wondering about German grumbling over energy costs? Well....yeah, there's a fair amount of negative talk and people are to the point of turning off lights, buying new refrigerators with lower energy usage, and doing the impossible in using less energy.
Then at the backdoor of this mess....there's the battery-car business which is about to erupt. In a decade, you can envision twenty percent of all cars in Germany being plugged into some electrical box and charged up. Where does this power come from? And just how expensive will power be around 2020?
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
The Snowball of NSA
This afternoon, I came to read on an article via Stern. I dislike Stern for general reasons. Most of what they publish....ends up as an extreme view of what the truth might be. It's like admitting that you stopped at the coffee shop and had a piece of cake. They'd write up your visit and hint that you possibly had a 2,000 calorie piece of cake, sipped possibly several shots of booze, and were in the company of possible criminals. All of this is possible.....but almost all false.
So, we have the newest piece of the NSA episode.
The Stern folks wants you to know that there are 90 companies in Germany....working for the US government, and possibly passing German information along to the US government.
I was curious about this and Stern led into a listing of companies that basically have contracts with EUCOM, USEAUR, and USAFE.....all US military headquarters based out of Germany. They all have IT, intelligence and support personnel who work for them....supporting missions that extend out into Africa, the Middle East and the rest of Europe.
Ninety companies? Well....Germans rarely understand how contracting works. You say you need five specially trained folks to handle the baselining of computers at some particular building and they need to have these capabilities. The head company puts out a requirement and finds a 3rd-rate company that will do the job for ninety-percent of what the US government will pay the primary company.....so the 3rd rate company gets the requirement for five folks.....giving the primary a chance to profit off the ten percent of savings. Yeah, it's a stupid method of running things......but it's business operations for the US government.
How do I know all this? I spent a decade working for USAFE via a contractor company or two. Did we ever gather data against Germany? That's a joke. Other than arguing against customs idiots at the Frankfurt airport, or arguing with German Fedex to deliver a package to the right building, or arguing with delivery drivers to unpack the box as it was delivered.....that was the extent of my work against Germans.
In fact, I just can't think of a single contractor that I ever worked with....that had much of anything to do with something against the German government or German private data. We had real jobs....against a real threat or enemy.....and the mere suggestion of something otherwise by Stern....just makes me laugh.
Stern's article is mostly creative writing.....fictional....and goes to the extreme. But, it's creative, and I give them credit for that. Tomorrow? The Burger Kings at every military post and base.....were secret NSA listening posts. Next week? The bowling alley over at Sembach was a secret meeting point for spies....mostly to sip coffee and tell wild stories. The old American hotel in Wiesbaden? It was a CIA joint that was run for years and years....mostly with secret Budweiser flown in by the CIA's private jet.
So, we have the newest piece of the NSA episode.
The Stern folks wants you to know that there are 90 companies in Germany....working for the US government, and possibly passing German information along to the US government.
I was curious about this and Stern led into a listing of companies that basically have contracts with EUCOM, USEAUR, and USAFE.....all US military headquarters based out of Germany. They all have IT, intelligence and support personnel who work for them....supporting missions that extend out into Africa, the Middle East and the rest of Europe.
Ninety companies? Well....Germans rarely understand how contracting works. You say you need five specially trained folks to handle the baselining of computers at some particular building and they need to have these capabilities. The head company puts out a requirement and finds a 3rd-rate company that will do the job for ninety-percent of what the US government will pay the primary company.....so the 3rd rate company gets the requirement for five folks.....giving the primary a chance to profit off the ten percent of savings. Yeah, it's a stupid method of running things......but it's business operations for the US government.
How do I know all this? I spent a decade working for USAFE via a contractor company or two. Did we ever gather data against Germany? That's a joke. Other than arguing against customs idiots at the Frankfurt airport, or arguing with German Fedex to deliver a package to the right building, or arguing with delivery drivers to unpack the box as it was delivered.....that was the extent of my work against Germans.
In fact, I just can't think of a single contractor that I ever worked with....that had much of anything to do with something against the German government or German private data. We had real jobs....against a real threat or enemy.....and the mere suggestion of something otherwise by Stern....just makes me laugh.
Stern's article is mostly creative writing.....fictional....and goes to the extreme. But, it's creative, and I give them credit for that. Tomorrow? The Burger Kings at every military post and base.....were secret NSA listening posts. Next week? The bowling alley over at Sembach was a secret meeting point for spies....mostly to sip coffee and tell wild stories. The old American hotel in Wiesbaden? It was a CIA joint that was run for years and years....mostly with secret Budweiser flown in by the CIA's private jet.
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