Public Forum Over Laschet

 Last night, CDU's Laschet (Chancellor candidate) showed up at the ZDF studio (public TV, Channel Two) for roughly 90 minutes of Q-and-A (by the public).  Focus had the better of details for the episode.  I probably watched 40 minutes of it altogether.  

General observations:

1.  Crowd at the studio were mixed.....some pretty tough questions thrown at Laschet.

2.  Someone throw up this weird question over 'light pollution'....meaning too many lights exist in the urbanized regions.  Of the 50-odd thousand problems a Chancellor has to deal with....you just got the feeling that Laschet didn't rate this in the 50-thousand group.

3.  One guy did make a blunt negative comment about regulations (he runs a business) and that bureaucracy in Germany is ruining opportunities.  Laschet agreed with him entirely.

4.  One question did come up from a guy....that people preferred Soder as the party choice, instead of Laschet.  Laschet countered that he was picked by the bulk of 'decision-makers' of the party.  The truth of the matter....it was the 40-odd member executive council that selected him (roughly 75-percent of the group).  He was NOT selected by the party membership itself.  You can laugh over the comment, and the Laschet answer, but it's the screwed-up nature of party politics in the middle of Covid.

5.  On environmental matters.....he didn't really satisfy the crowd at all.  

6.  So finally, if you were pro-Laschet before the episode....you probably kept your faith with him.  If you were pro-CDU but anti-Laschet.....you are standing there disgruntled and likely voting for the FDP instead (to send a message).  

2G Party Results

Focus had brief details over this event  in Münster (NW Germany).

Apparently, the local region went to the 2G mandate (meaning NO tested individuals allowed, just allowing vaccinated and recovered Covid people).  This would have kept out those stupid non-vax people.

So a party night was convened at some nightclub last week.  Results?  So far, 26 attendees are confirmed to have Covid.  

What the local authorities are saying?  Well....the 26-number is not the final result, and it might go higher.  Plus they are hinting that just about everyone from that party needs to have a PCR test (not even the free quickie test).  

Common sense view?  2G mandates are going to be basically worthless....you might as well go to the imaginary-non-existent 1G idea where everyone is tested at the door (via the quickie tests)....if this is a indoor event (pub, bar, grill, restaurant, theater, etc).  

As cooler temperatures arrive, I expect more Germans to be socializing indoors, with the 2G mandate in effect, and folks shocked that Covid is passed around more easily (even if you are vaccinated).   

UPDATE: This afternoon.....number went up to 39.  All from one single social party under city-mandated 2G rules.  Pretty amazing.  No details yet if it's 100-percent vax-people or 50/50 with recovered folks.  Probably get some rocket scientist chatter tonight over the episode.  

A Money Story

 I sat this afternoon and viewed a pretty complicated story via N-TV (commercial German news)

How much of this is in the public view at this point?  It might be argued that this story is going to take off and become a major problem.

So it revolves around this.....there is this town in NW Germany....Osnabrück, and information came to the public prosecutor.  It's about money-laundering.  This started up about a year ago (2020).

The prosecutor stumbles across this 'known' information that involves both the Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of Finance (both in Berlin, and both run by the SPD Party). It was information that was supposed to go to the police, and lead onto prosecution.  In both cases, they failed (either accidentally or intentionally).

All of this revolves around million Euro transactions which moved via a German bank, leading to Africa....in 2018.  Drug money?  Apparently.

There is a unit in the Finazamt (Ministry of Finance) which was supposed to pass the info over to the police.  But they did nothing. 

So this public prosecutor from Osnabrück did something pretty 'crazy'.  He packaged the problem for a judge, and asked for a search warrant of both the Finance Ministry and Justice Ministry.  

They (the police) showed up with the search warrant, and you can imagine those Ministry folks being pretty shocked.

Right now, the prosecutor staff is evaluating the material taken.  It might be several months before you reach a point where people start to be asked to appear in front of a judge.

Speculation?  You have one of three likely scenarios: (1) a fair number of incompetent or untrained people who work within the monitoring unit of the Finazamt, (2) some banking people or money-laundering establishment paid off this unit to just do 'nothing', or (3) the transfers of money seemed to fit within a legit movement of money.  

There are a hundred different ways that you could go and move money out of Germany without involving banks or being noticed on transfers.  So it's a bit puzzling to me why some idiot choose a particular way to do this....in full view....hoping that nothing would be noticed.  That's the part of the story which makes no sense.

A lot of the drug gangs or criminal clans now take their profits and drive them into construction or real estate projects....which is another angle to this whole story. 

This will be openly discussed tonight....probably as a top three type story, but only leading to speculation.  The fact that both ministries are run by SPD politicians?  Well....yeah, that is a bit odd (just before an election) to tell this story.  

A Fax Story

 Back around 2008, I worked for a US military organization that was heavily into the IT world.  At some point, a discussion started up....about getting rid of the regular old $100 fax machines.  I would say at this point....around 98-percent of the organization was ready to move on and exist without the fax option.  I was the logistical guy, and I was the one who'd be left with the job of disposing of them.

Well....in this discussion....two folks stood up and noted that various reports that they generated and sent to someone....had to go by fax.  I questioned these two people and it was evident that somewhere in their chain of production....they could only communicate with some folks by telephone and fax.  I was fairly blunt....it was time to move on, but they persisted, and at least two fax machines remained in the organization.  Even today, I would imagine that the machines are still there, and convey three or four fax messages each week to 'someone' (probably some gal who lives in a cave-like office and no internet.

So this topic came up on German N-TV today.

Here in 2021, in the German state of Baden-Wurttemberg (SW)....various clinics and hospitals transmit daily.....their 'count' of Covid people....to the state headquarters of Covid-knowledge (the state health ministry).

The transmission?  They write it in a report, via a computer....then print it out.  Then they transmit it by fax....to the state guys.

Why?  Well....the hospital database system is not a open-system where the Health Ministry could 'see' into.  Nor is the database designed for you to extract ONLY Covid-people and pump out a Covid-report.  So they glean the data, and someone writes down the numbers, and goes to a computer....to write this daily report, which is printed out and then faxed.

You can laugh a bit, but it's the only way that the system works.  It wouldn't surprise me all sixteen states function the same way.  Some might have an email address....to avoid the fax business.  

In my thinking even when 2030 comes around....I still expect the fax machine business to still exist.  Maybe even when 2050 comes around....faxes will still be some part of our lives.  

The Problem with Regulation

 Thorsten Krauel wrote up piece for Welt/N-24 where he talks about the heavily regulated period of China in the 1970s.  For those not familiar with the era in China....regulations basically doubled overnight.  

Even if you had money (which was this period where commerce was finally beginning to bring in real cash in China)....you had various rules limiting any travel (certainly not outside of China).

The government had a 'path' designed for working-class people to enter and exit from.....only if you were among the elite....did you get 'freedoms'.

Krauel even brings up the problem of electrical production and consumption....this was still the China that had marginally arrived in 1970 with power being available....mostly geared toward industry or priority situations.  So regular Chinese were still living in a world where power might not be on 24 hours a day.

So Krauel writes this piece as warning to regular Germans....that if a SPD-Green-Linke coalition occurs....there's going to be a upsurge on regulations, and you might wake up to find your life fairly controlled.  

The likely occurrence of in-country flights (Hamburg to Munich, Frankfurt to Berlin) being 'banned'?  I'd go and suggest it' very likely to occur by the end of 2022. 

The talk of taxes going up?  Most Germans believe....whether it's a fantasy or not.

The talk of massive upswing on looking for tax-avoidance people?  In the past month, it's been hyped up a good bit.

The chatter over internet companies being dragged in and taxed-up?  That got brought up last night via public news.  Would they just accept the tax assessment or charge up their services.....to make the consumer pay for his requirements?  It wouldn't shock me if Twitter/Facebook operations in Germany had to go and charge some monthly rate....to recover enough to pay for their German tax bill.  Even the email services might find themselves stuck into some weird taxation game.

So the 'warning' given by Krauel....as all of this happened in the 1970s of China....discontent and frustration grew....becoming a national problem as people couldn't understand the continual need to regulate things.  In his assessment....the same problem would develop in 2022 Germany.  I don't disagree with his assessment. 

Is 2G Covid Controls Really Just a 'Shutdown'?

 In Germany, we have this 3G and 2G 'gimmick' for Covid.  It's a federal mandated program....established by the Bundestag apparatus, and each of the sixteen states can walk in and start 3G....then at some point when Covid gets real bad....you slip into 2G rules.

Difference between 3G and 2G?  

3G:  You only get interior access into bars, clubs, discos, pubs, theaters, and restaurants if you are vaccinated (with proof), you test (with proof), or you show you had Covid, thus having immunity (with proof).  By test?  I mean that you do the current free 'quickie-test' (15 minutes, done in your local town/village) for a 24-hour 'pass', or the PCR-test (usually 2 hours) for a 48-hour 'pass'.  

2G:  You only get this interior access deal....if you show you had Covid in the past (thus having immunity) or if you are vaccinated.  Testing?  Out.

So, after you really stand there and admire the landscape....what you have is a rigged-up way that the non-vax crowd doesn't get access into any interior (except stores, buses, trains, etc).  The idea?  Basically, you get mentally pushed to the point where you will get the vaccination....at least that's the logic.

The reality?  You could have a pub where typical Saturday evenings....you had around 300 guests, and now with the 2G......you might only have 200 guests.  

In simple terms....yeah, it's a shutdown without saying the word 'shutdown'.  

The fall/winter effect?  At some point, the states that go to 2G....will have various bar/restaurant owners who come up and stage a confrontation over lagging profits.  They can't survive in a 2G situation.  The government probably will tell them to just shut up and accept reality, and then as weeks pass....places just shutdown (close-shop), and wait out things until 2G/3G go away in the spring.

The question....is this a repeatable event now?  Will all of this repeat in September 2022, and these business shutdowns just be regarded as a permanent part of society?

Is the 7-Day Incidence Rate Going Away?

 Is the German government dumping the Covid 7-day incidence rate?  YES.  The only question left is when it occurs.

ARD (public TV) talked about this today.

What will exist instead?  A hospitalization rate related to each seven days.....will be the standard....related to each 100,000 folks in that area.

A necessity to change this?  No one is clear about this and some think that you can't claim the vaccinations changed much of anything, if you kept using the infection rate business developed in 2020.

Could you have one state or region with extraordinary low numbers?  Yes.  You could also have a highly urbanized area, with extraordinary high numbers.  

The odds that the hospitalization rate will be dumped by spring/summer of 2022?  Well.....just an educated guess on that, but I would put some odds that that it will change in some way.

Will some private clinics develop a Joe Rogan-style 'cocktail' for Covid folks who might have serious cases.....to avoid the hospitalization path?  Well....it wouldn't surprise me if this trend did start up.  

The Index Idea

 There is a term being thrown around this week in Germany....Supermietendeckel.

What it means?  Basically, super-rent-cap.

How it'd work?  The Greens say, a rent-index would be created over your property (as a owner), and the past twenty years would be laid out as a basis.

Based on the Focus example.....normally, before any rent-cap would fall into play....your rent (say in Berlin) would be 10.62 Euro per square meter.  Under the 20-year rent-index idea....your rent would be 7.09 Euro per square meter (roughly 30 percent less).

The person screwed (royally)?  The owner.

Devaluing the property?  Oh yeah.

Investing into rental property therefore....would make zero sense.  A whole element of society would go into massive collapse in a matter of weeks, if this index idea were to be applied.

The shift?  These companies that own housing (rental apartments) would find people dumping the stock overnight....with probably most of the stock ending up at 50-percent or more of the original value).  I, myself....would see no reason to invest in any apartment 'fund'.

The odds of this happening?  This came up this week if the SPD-Green-Linke coalition were to take place.  

Basically....if you were ever going to short-a-stock, and predict a dramatic loss....the results of the 26th (the election) would be that moment where you ought to throw 10,000 Euro into shorting some apartment stocks....if the left-coalition were to occur.