The Russian 'Common Man'

 Last week, I watched a business interview segment, which featured around twenty-odd Russians who were affected by the western business closures in Russia.

So one of the folks had a logistical job with Ikea, and he talked briefly about the people in his group who had mortgages.  These weren't people with capital to cover a lengthy period of unemployment, and still cover the mortgage.  

Unless the government steps in....they would be getting warning letters....and probably within three months....face some type of harsh action (eviction).

But I sat there and wondered over this.....Moscow has a population of 12.6-million.  How many people fall into this problem?  Does the government know?  Does the government care?  Do the banks grasp this approaching problem?  If the banks did reach the level of sending eviction notices and people default....then what?  Is there anyone to actually be interested in buying such houses? Where would default folks move to?  

Is anyone briefing Putin over this?  I doubt that.  The remarkable amount of fear existing today over Putin's power....leads people to just sit quietly and let matters unfold on another day.  

But then you start to look across all of Russia....same scenario playing out.

Then you add credit card debt.....car loans....business loans.  

In the old USSR, you didn't worry about this kind of problem.  Now?  There's an enormous trap that has been sprung...a society spiral which will start to have serious results, and require a massive amount of printing of Rubles to rig up a one-star marginal 'solution'. 

I would take a guess by July....defaults will be in play with notices sent out and someone finally tells Putin how he's got a much bigger problem than the Ukraine on his plate.  Other than printing more Rubles....there's not much left in the tool-kit to resolve this mess.  

The War: 13 Mar 2022

 1.  N-TV brought up the Chinese substitute credit card that Russians 'were' adapting to....called the 'Union-Card'.  

Supposed to be about half-a-million of the cards in Russia, and used for internet purposes....almost all for Chinese products.

So the story goes....they aren't being 'honored' by Chinese banks (differing opinions here but Chinese banks appear worried that Russians might not be able to pay).

If you were curious....Visa and MasterCard are totally turned off in Russia at present.

2.  Peace treaty talks....going nowhere.  It appears that Putin is willing to sign for less than he did a month ago, but the Ukrainians aren't as willing.

3. German cops are saying almost 90-percent of Ukrainian refugees are showing up with a passport, as they enter as refugees.  Folks without an ID?  It'd be curious to ask questions (maybe they claim fake status as Ukrainians).  

4.  Weird story over Russian freight cars in various yards.....NOT moving.  Number? 150,000 are just in no-use situation now.

5.  More Russian yachts seized in the Netherlands (20).

About That UFO Documentary

 Last night, via ZDF (Channel 2, public TV), they ran a 45-minute documentary piece entitled: "UFOs - The Facts With Harald Lesch".  You can probably watch it (in German) at least for the next four weeks off their media site.

So, what they did....they took the UFO report from the Pentagon from late summer 2021, and blended a few things into it.

I would say that it was 50-percent factual and without any skepticism, and the rest was hoax-material (proven) with a fair amount of skepticism.  On the positive side, at least they didn't bring up Bob Lazar.  

The problem is....almost none of the German news media from late summer of 2021....carried any of the Pentagon-produced report.  It was simply not mentioned.  Unless you viewed CNN, or BBC, or read the NY Times.....you didn't know anything much about the episode.

Why cover this now?  That would be a primary question to ask....but I suspect that the ZDF management looked at everything and finally said....'we have to at least lay down the basic story even though we are 90-percent skeptical'. 

Are there UFO sightings in Germany?  Yes....there's probably at least one sighting report per week, and sometimes a dozen reports in a week.

Back in the spring of 1948, the Bavarian state government issued directions to the public on how to report 'saucers'....because of a number of newspapers having sightings reported.

If you divided the German population up....I'd say there are three groups: (1) the folks who've seen enough to be somewhat believing in UFOs, (2) the group that is 100-percent skeptical, and (3) the group which doesn't really care either way....they've got real work to be done, with no time to waste on little green men or crashed alien craft.   

Likely criticism to come over the ZDF documentary piece?  Yeah....I would imagine at least a thousand complaints occur....that they are wasting valuable air-time covering hoax-material.  But the same thousand would complain about little green alien-men appearing live on ZDF's public chat forums....saying they are right-wing, non-intellectuals, or have some agenda.  

(note: if you were trying to figure my angle out....out of a thousand UFO-related stories, there's only about two dozen that I generally put some interest into and regard with honest curiosity.  If you bring up Erich von Däniken, he lays out a lot of curious things but the bulk of them don't lead anywhere and lack genuine facts.)

How Close Is Mandated Less Usage Of Natural Gas In Germany To Occurring?

 Well....there is a piece on N-TV news this morning on Germany where this topic is discussed.

Klaus Müller, the The President of the Federal Network Agency, said that savings on energy has to occur.  All of this....because of the view of Russia.  

Key quote: "From the point of view of the storage levels, I have to say clearly: everyone is called upon to help save gas today." 

His suggestion?  Reducing apartment/home temperatures to as low as 17 degrees (62 F).

Presently, with spring in the air....I don't see this philosophy selling well.  Maybe when we arrive at mid-September.....the discussion will open up again.

In my region....central Germany....the vast number of houses are heated via natural gas.  If you asked about temperature settings, I'd take a guess that most people have the temperature set between 20 and 22 C (68 to 70 F).  Five percent (my humble guess) would have the setting closer to 25 C (78 F).  

Could you actually go as low as 17 C?  If you had a convictional heater in the bathroom (electrical), and you could heat that one room up for baths....maybe you could establish 17 as a normal situation (would mean sweaters are in the mix, and the cat is probably laying on top of you for most of the night).

The curious thing?  Well....if you went back to the 1930s, 1940s and 1950s.....most German homes had one single room adequately heated (charcoal, wood, or coal) and you accepted marginal heat in the winter.  

This next winter might be kinda interesting. 

Trying to Explain Energy Expropriation

 Well....in recent days....the Economics Minister (Habeck, Green Party) has come to talk about a draft idea.....'grabbing' energy service companies.  Yes, in effect....nationalizing them (proper term: expropriation).

Chief reason?  If there is a cut or massive chaos to arrive....the only way that the government can resolve the chaos....is to run the energy sector themselves, with priorities set.  All of this....because of the Ukraine-Russia war.

This effort would require the Energy Security Act to be changed.  Odds of this?  No one really openly discusses this part of the issue.

I have my doubts that the CDU/CSU Party folks would agree to this.  I also think great reservations will come from the FDP Party.  So passing a change will require a lot of problems to be worked out in front of the public.

The basic idea?  The energy crisis would occur, with natural gas cut off.....then the system would go into a trustee-situation....with some government figure (yet to be named) as the energy 'czar' (my term for the job) takes control.

The general problem with expropriation?  By law, you have to compensate companies for the action.....meaning someone is going to get paid to 'shut-up' and not whine about the mess.

If I doing the odds on this?  Summer-break is about 3.5 months away.  I don't see this worked out and passed by that point.  So, I'm thinking it'll be the top September problem, and discussed day by day.  

Should regular Germans worry?  If it reaches the level where Russian natural gas is turned off.....this take-over/expropriation issue will be the least of your daily worries.  

It's all just part of the bluffs and poker-game going on.

Has Covid Disappeared in Germany?

 'Hell no'.

I'll reference data from the Wiesbaden health authorities on this topic.  

Yesterday....nation-wide....172,700 new infection situations were reported.  Locally, 517 new infections were reported (293k residents).

289 Germans died yesterday from Covid.....while locally....two folks were reported dead from the virus.  The local folks?  One was in early 70s....the other in early 80s.   

I'd generally say from the 8 PM nightly news (ARD, public TV).....there's still a slide put up and around 20 seconds of chatter to occur.  Maybe twice a week....the Federal Health Minister will appear and get pretty intense on the 'fight'.

I was in a hardware store yesterday on the southside of Wiesbaden.  I'd say about 40-percent of folks were still masked up.  For some folks, it might take five years before they feel safe enough to go without the mask.   

People still mingle, and I'd say that more than half of folks will want to discuss the virus with friends or associates.  People who've had it....usually want to share that information and detail the severity or the low-impact of their episode.

If you use official numbers....nationwide....then around one out of every four Germans has had Covid (since day one).  Unofficially, there's probably another couple million who had mild symptoms....never were tested, but had the virus.  

Ten Theories I Have On The War

 1.  If you are a regular Russian conscript guy (carrying a rifle).....your IQ level is probably 89 and on down to 55 (meaning you have a mild mental disability).  

2.  Back on day one in the Putin briefing room.....there were probably seven different maps to show advancements and how the war would be over by the 7th day.

3.  All this chatter going on about Russian soldiers shooting themselves in the leg with Ukrainian bullets....to get sent to the rear?  You probably get a medal from Putin....which is later revoked.....then later get a personal medal from the Ukraine for your heroic action.

4.  If these Russian combat rations really were three to twelve years over their expiration date....don't you think intestinal problems would have occurred and gotten people brought to the rear?

5.  From all those exercises held over the past thirty years.....these 1-star to 4-star generals.....did they actually do anything other than show up....party with the guys, and then write glowing reports of exercise 'victory'?

6.  If all this Putin 'Nazi-chatter' were true.....then these Nazis must be ten times more powerful than the German Nazis of 1943.  

7.  I have this theory that 'Sputnik' (the Russian Covid vaccine).....might have triggered mental defects in people.

8.  If it's true all these high-tech Russians are leaving the country.....who will run the Russian adult-video industry?

9.  If Trump were President presently....probably every morning, he'd pick up the red-phone....call Putin, and ask how things were going.  Putin would reach a point of asking for a 'safe-space' to avoid these phone-calls.

10. The Russian Instagram influencer crowd are probably at the lowest level that you can imagine.  No one is hearing their BS.  

Three Things On The War Today: 12 Apr 2022

 1.  There's some odd talk that Switzerland is studying the idea of joining NATO.  Unlike the case of Sweden/Finland....where it's around two-thirds of the population supporting this....I'd say the trend in Switzerland is closer to 40-percent in support.  But two years ago, I doubt if you could have found more than 10-percent in favor of the idea.

2.  Thomas Jaeger wrote a piece for Focus and openly discussed the manpower problem that Russia currently has.  It's worth a read.

He suggests....whatever the number is for the losses....it's significant and this attempt to bring back retired military, or drag the reservists onto the landscape, or to bring in new conscripts....it'll take weeks to organize and refill the units.

The idea of capturing Mariupol, Ukraine?  Well...if you view the total picture....this would be the moment where they could halt the operation...claim victory, and get peace treaty up to end the war.  

The suggestion that Russia has too few troops to occupy/control all of the Ukraine?  Actually, even with the 150k to begin with....I think they were asking way to much.  In this situation now?  If the Ukraine doesn't buy off on the treaty.....Russia simply doesn't have the troops (or probably the tanks) to mount a six-month long occupation.  

The continued threat on the rest of Europe?  If this scenarios continues....with the Russians still operating this military operation in August.....I don't think there's much of a threat left.

3.  Current refugee situation in Germany?  335,000....as of this morning.