Nord Stream II Chatter

 At the end of the week in Germany, a FDP prominent party guy stood up and asked the question....why not go ahead and approve the Nord Stream II pipeline and pump in Russian natural gas....to avoid the harsh winter reality?

So, this is the argument.

Nord Stream I?  This was a Baltic pipeline (under the water) started in early 2011, and finished by November 2011.  It's been operational and functional for ten years now.  

The Germans have no problem with Nord Stream I today and without any hesitation.....to buy natural gas via the Russian pipeline.  This 'fall-upon-ones-sword' business?  Nope....not with Nord Stream I.  

The 'evil' Nord Stream II?  It's built, and the papers are sitting there for them to sign and make the system operational. 

I sat and pondered upon this argument.  

The problem here is that the Germans got themselves....over decades....deeply into the pocket of the Russians, and never once questioned the idea of limiting the relationship.  If the war had not occurred in 2022....but instead had occurred in 2026 (nuke plants dismantled and coal plants shutdown), then the import business would have been probably double what it is today.

How much suffering must the German public accept this winter....to be ethical in this state of mind?  I'd reverse the question and ask how much suffering the political parties are willing to accept?

Every ounce of effort ought to be put on having at least two serious competitors to Russia, and the Russian import business should be limited to only 20-percent in the end.  If it takes three years to reach a competitive situation, fine. 

Yeah, use Nord Stream II, and just admit a lot of bad judgement was done in the 1970s, 1980s, and a more sound judgement needs to be used for future planning. 

The Remote Valley Syndrome

 Hessen (my regional German state) is legendary in one particular area....almost one-percent of the state has ZERO cellphone connectivity.  

If you tried to use in your cellphone in some of these communities....other than having the landline connection and Wi-Fi from your living room to connect to the cellphone....it's of no use.

HR discussed this today.

The term 'white spots' gets uttered a good bit in this discussion.

In the region west of my village (about 20 km away)....it's a big chunk of hilly area, where cellphone towers don't exist.

What hinders the tower placement?  Mostly a lack of profits.  If you have a small village of 300 people...it's not worth the cost of placing a tower in the village.

It would be curious to go out and see if people in these remote sections even spend money on cellphones or their providers.  

Five German News Stories

1.  This RBB public TV scandal has been brewing all week.  Yesterday, it came out that various 'bosses' in the ARD ('mother' over all the sub-networks) knew of the bonus system being run and were fairly critical....but never put a stop to it.

RBB's words?  It was never a bonus-system....it was a goal system.  If you accomplished the goals, you got an extra paycheck.  Even I'll admit....it's one of the most unethical discussions that you could dream up.

What's likely to happen?  I think when the Bundestag comes back from summer vacation and starts to talk over this....the public TV governor's board will have to react, and demand a full accounting of funds from each network.....including ARD and ZDF.  This would likely take six months, and I think all of the networks will be shaking in fear of what might come out of such an audit.

2.   There's a short bit from Focus this AM where some moments/evidence have occurred to show the Russians are reaching a point of limits on ammo in this Ukraine war business.

My BS-meter?  Probably a '5'.

Typically, you have a procurement schedule and purchase as a government x-amount of ammo per quarter.  With the Russians....you have to figure around 40-percent of what was spent....went as 'gift' money for various Oligarch characters.  So the generals are probably shocked to find the ammo depots really having only sixty-percent of the expected ammo.  

More production going on?  Probably.  But if you were near the bottom 10-percent of ammo reserves, you might be issuing orders to hold back on issuing more than 20 bullets per day.  That kind of order won't sit well with Conscripts being told to push 'forward'.

3.  By the end of the week....a number of draft heat/electricity regulations were on the table, and criticism had started up.  

"Excessive flood of regulations" was a term used by the CDU Party in describing how they would affect people.  

There's a point where people react in a negative way to excessive rules in life.  

4.  It was brought up yesterday.....trains carrying coal to power plants....will now have the right-of-way over passenger trains.  So just a hint....if riding the German railway system.....it's pretty good odds that a five to ten minute delay on a 90-minute trip will start to become common.

5.  Couple of months ago (Feb), the government was asked what they were paying for the Covid-warning App.  The price?  Around 70-million Euro.  

Well....this week, they had to go and admit the cost has gone up another 20-million Euro.

Usefulness?  The way the App works....you load it on the cellphone and it uses the tracking system.  From your home to work, you might 'bump' into 300 people.  If you are within two meters of a person (for a time period of roughly two minutes), and they test positive for Covid....then you get a 'warning' via the App.

I don't use it.....but my wife does. How many warnings has she received since day one (roughly 18 months)?  Presently up to four warnings....which hypes her up for a good forty-eight hours, and creates a fair amount of aggravation.  So far....NONE of the four have turned into Covid episodes for her.  The one Covid that she did have....come from within the office area, where she would not carry the cellphone around with her. 

On value or usefulness....it's a question mark if the App is worth anything, or the government getting 90-odd million Euro of use out of it. 

Sponge Bath Over Shower?

 Well....it started up this morning....the Premier-President of Baden-Wurttemberg (the state to the SW of Germany, a Green Party guy) said there's no reason to have daily showers....in that it'd make sense to save energy, to sponge-up daily instead of a full bath/shower.

I sat and paused over this idea.

He's trying to suggest that those 21-odd baths that you, your spouse, and one kid take each week....could be lessened to just three baths (Saturday evening) and all that heated water would be saved.

Personally, I rarely use more than 180 seconds of heated water.  But I'd admit the German wife of mine probably uses more than 500 seconds of heated water.  

When you go back to 1920s/1930s Germany (US as well)....it was common for one heated bath per week, with a wash-cloth or sponge used for the remaining six days a week.

Would Germans go this way?  I think it's generally odd....if you observe HR (Hessen public TV)....some new trend or fad is created monthly now, and some 'group' is pushing an agenda to trigger change.  This one-bath a week thing?  I could see the public TV folks pursuing this agenda.

Outsiders looking at this and shaking their head?  Well....in the German mind...every bit of energy saved (even two less baths a week)....is some Kilowatt hour of natural somewhere in the mix.  

Just be glad that flushing a toilet doesn't involve heated stuff or power-usage.  

What Happens If Scandal Finally Touches Scholz As Chancellor?

 The way this Cum-ex banking thing is going....Scholz has holes in his calendar and his story is continually being pushed.  Presently?  I'd say it's a 30-percent chance that they will eventually (probably by early 2023) with some type of investigation and potential court time.

So, onto the scenarios.

If this court thing came up now (end of September)?  Well....he'd likely resign and the SPD would have an executive meeting to select a 'filler'....which the party would have to agree upon, then have the Greens and FDP Party agree.  For the FDP....I think no matter who is selected....they'd readily agree.  For the Greens?  No, they've improved their numbers in the past six months, and are way ahead of the SPD (probably by seven points minimum).  

In this scenario, the Greens might say.....we want the Chancellor slot, and you fill Habeck's job....letting Habeck (the vice-Chancellor) move up.  

I'm not sure that the SPD would agree to this.

Who can fill via the SPD  Party?  Well....it's a LONG step down from Scholz, and I can't think of anyone who is dynamic and ready for the job.  

The odds of another election?  You REALLY don't want that occurring at this point, with all the energy crap going on.  

Andrea Nahles being pulled back in?  That would be a wild scenario, but I could see a third of the SPD Party believing she's qualified.

If the election scenario occurred?  Right now....the CDU (Merkel's old group) actually stand at the top of the spectrum, with 30-odd percent of the public vote.  Greens are 10 points behind.  The FDP is marginally around 7 percent.  The Linke Party have fallen below 5 percent.  The SPD would be lucky to get around 17 percent.  Finally, the AfD would be near 8 to 10 percent on voting. 

For the benefit of the country....the Greens Habeck would be the better choice at this point, and fit well into the job.  

Regulation Coming?

 This morning, Focus published what is a draft proposal of the coalition German gov't (SPD-FDP-Greens) on the energy situation....come September.

The ideas?

1.  Public building temperatures will be set to no more than 19 C (66 F).

2.  Illuminated advertising (boards, buildings, bus stops)....must be turned off between 10 PM and 6 AM.

3.  You own a private pool (not public pools)....and it's heated by natural gas or electrical, you are not supposed to heat it (would beg questions). 

4.  If you operate a retail business, with the doors always set to be open...that practice must stop.

5.  Outdoor lighting for public buildings and statues?  Must be turned off.

6.  Common areas (like in hospitals or work areas)...meaning hallways or entry points....cannot be heated.  Will make for an interesting situation at schools/universities.  

7.  Industry type heating?  Well....they are talking about 16 C (61 F).  The hint here is that people are standing or moving around in this situation.

Five German Stories

 1.  WELT went and did some analysis over heat-pumps (a new 'fad' in German housing and heating). 

So they concluded....for a normal house (120 sq meters)....you'd have to pay around 3,000 Euro for your electricity off the grid.  

It's a fairly big chunk of money.

2.  Ronaldo, the great soccer player from Portugal, is rumored to be on his way to BVB (Dortmund).  He's not happy in the UK because his team is not headed to the championship games.  Folks at BVB.....probably want him but the salary is a problem.

3.  Has wind generator placement peaked in Germany?  N-TV did a piece and basically suggests that since 2018....it's leveled-out.  

4.  Things are heating up over the Cum-ex banking scandal and Chancellor Scholz.  Some hearing to be held this AM with Scholz providing more details of what he might know.

Focus did a decent report over this.

If any of his details don't match up....the odds increase for him to resign from the Chancellor job.  

5.  This hype BS over a deal that might be worked out....Russia getting the services of 100,000 North Korean soldiers....discussed in the AM over at Focus.

Maybe in Russia, people believe the BS, but the majority of people think it would be crazy.  The place where the 100,000 would be placed?  Opposite the Baltic states....not in the Ukraine.  Or at least, as the story goes.

I think it's a bit comical, but there's a lot of fake news out of Moscow right now, and I'd regard this as a 5-star fake story.  

Heating VAT Reduced?

 Mid-day today, there's chatter from the fed folks that a reduction in natural gas VAT will occur....going from 19-percent to 7-percent....immediately, but would end by 1 Apr 2023.

Odds of passing?  I'd give it a 99-percent chance of passing.  As for savings?  It depends on how much you use.  I'd figure my savings to be in the 150 Euro range.