Up to this point, the 8 Oct 2023 Hessen state election looked pretty sure for the CDU to win (in the 29-to-30 percent range), with the SPD getting near 22-to-23 percent for 2nd place.
The Greens (who the CDU would partner with)...were looking 16-to-18 percent.
The AfD? Pretty solid at 13-percent.
This Russelheim oldtimer car-show saga? Well...there seems to be a number of folks in the region now who are extra peeved about what the environmentalists did in court....to have the oldtimer show (30,000 guests were expected) cancelled.
Affecting the state election? I'd say over the next hundred-odd days....the Greens will lose a fair amount of support in the Russelheim area, and state-wise.....it'll amount to something like a 2-percent loss (figuring a 2-to-3 point gain for the AfD).
A big deal? Well...to get into the coalition deal.....the Greens (if they lose 2 points) are not likely to be the coalition partner. SPD the likely partner then? I would suggest that.
Still....is it still a big deal? No. The local environmentalists prioritized things an figured in the long-term....they got something out of this car-show cancellation.
The odds that the show will be moved elsewhere (permanently) from Russelheim? Yeah, I'd say it's a 90-percent chance of leaving the area, and that will sit pretty negative on the locals. Who will get it? Hockenheimring? That's my guess. It's a major track....privately owned, and environmentalists would face a tough situation in cancelling out a oldtimer show there.
Just to point this out....if the show is permanently lost....that's the second major event in five years to be pulled out of Hessen.
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