Sunday, December 6, 2020

Is There a Coup Brewing in Spain?

 Well....no.   But things aren't exactly working like you'd expect.

So to start at the beginning of this story.....a national election was held on 20 December 2015 (I know, it's pretty stupid to have an election in the midst of Christmas season).

Over the previous four years, between corruption scandals, economic woes, and poor relations between the parties (remember, they run with six significant parties, with cousins of the six in various districts, and another dozen-odd insignificant parties).....this election ended up in a non-cooperative situation.

Around six months pass, and another election occurs (June 2016).  No majority win, and no cooperative situation where partners can be found.  

What happened here (June 2016)....the People's Party built a fairly weak and infective coalition group....which did NOT have a 50-percent situation.  Yeah, it's what you'd call a 'minority' government. 

If you drag this topic out with government professors, they will tell you that it's an arrangement to get you by for a year or two....then rig up another election (hopefully in better economic times).

Well...in April of 2019....the next election occurred.  Result?  More folks showed up to vote, but more corruption and scandal had occurred....meaning the public wanted to fire a bunch of folks but couldn't figure who to fire.

So another weak government was put into place (summer of 2019).  and in November of 2019....another election was held.  

Yeah, it was the lowest turn-out in forty-odd years, and more discontent expressed.  But they had enough on numbers to agree to a government situation....suggesting they might actually make it to December 2023.

An odd thing happened in the past sixty days....a vote was brought up for a NO-confidence situation over this coalition.  It lost, but generally around Spain....public sentiment isn't that overwhelming.  

Around four weeks ago....these letters started to appear.  Two groups signed a letter each....sent to King Felipe VI.  One group of 39 former military officers and a second group of 73 former officers.  Air Force and Army officers in the mix.

Both groups suggest the current government is a failure.  

The key comment by these ex-officers?  Gangs of terrorists (never detailed out) and separatists (yeah, those bad-boys in Barcelona) with the actions of the PM....are making the nation into an mess.

This weekend?  Well....a third letter popped up....signed by 271 former officers.

Why any of this matters?  This gets to a little bit of history....going to 1939 where the military officers felt the government of that era....was threatening democracy.  So they staged a coup....putting General Franco in charge, and there he remained until 1975.

Where this is going?  Over the weekend....the Defense Minister had a chat with the National Prosecutor and suggested that these letters constitute a threat....thus a criminal threat.  The suggestion here....in the middle of this economic crisis (yeah, it's been over five consecutive years of this mess), with a Covid-mess going on....they don't need a bunch of generals or ex-officers making threats.

If they draw up charges and arrest 300-odd officers?  It'd be quiet a remarkable hornet's nest to stir up and trigger a lot of people suggesting via social media that the counter-coup is underway, and you might have tens of thousands of supporters hit the streets to stage the military officer coup, with oddball leftist characters appearing to stage a 3rd coup out of thin air.  Coup?  Counter-coup?  Counter-counter-coup?

I'm guessing here that the prosecutor would prefer to do absolutely nothing and just let things to slide for a while.

Could you even stage a military-coup in modern Spain?  I would have my doubts.  But here's the thing....no one ever thought in the mid-1930s....that a civil war (summer of 1936) would occur and 500,000 folks would be dead from this episode....bringing Franco to his little coup/take-over.

A stupid thing to bring up?  Well....after a whole year of Covid....nothing really shocks me at this point.  At the very least, I suspect another election to occur before summer of 2021.  

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