Monday, December 7, 2020

The Exit Story

 Over the weekend, via Welt....this curious article came out over 2019 statistical data.  Roughly a quarter of a million Germans (actually 270k) packed up and left Germany.

On the statistical numbers....a fair number left who had a university degree.  

Where'd they go?  Mostly to Austria, Switzerland, and the US.  

Did Germany actually lose population then?  No.  So that's another part of this story....they increased.  How? Well...migration and immigration.

What's really going on here?  It's a favorite topic of mine for over twenty years.  The most common 'regular' reason given for Germans exiting...is that some folks seek adventure and a new lifestyle.  

It was a popular thing in the 1990s, for some Germans to pack up and run off to Ibiza or some Spanish isle....to start up a hotel or coffee shop, or pub.

I would suggest over the past twenty years....a fair number of Germans have been looking for a career move and advancement....that you can't readily find in Germany today.  You walk into a Canadian or Australian clinic situation....put down your German medical certifications as a nurse, and right away....you get offers with a pay scale you'd never find in Germany.

You walk into a number of technology development companies in Austria or Switzerland....and they are equally interested in offering you a job. 

If you added up all of those who left in the past twenty years?  It's well over 2-million Germans who were trained and educated here (paid by the government) and there seems to be no one really worried about this.

This is a rather odd thing....this much brain-power exiting and no obvious worry.  

This next era....2020 to 2030?  The odds?  I would imagine somewhere between two and three million German-educated folks will exit by 2030, on top of the past numbers.

Are these disgruntled folks?  There's no real science or data-point to suggest that.  They might be unhappy over opportunities or limited pay advancement, but otherwise, they aren't grumbling about the government, politics, etc....as a big reason to leave.  Some might admit that they just 'greener' pastures elsewhere.

Is there a relationship of exiting Germans to entering migrants/immigrants?  You can't find a single factual point to really suggest that.  Some folks might suggest that urbanized cities like Berlin and Hamburg....are developing into problem 'zones' or that crime is a bigger deal than twenty years ago.  But it's not the 'big' explanation that would be worth discussing.

The cost of living falling into this pattern?  Well, if you looked....Austria and Switzerland aren't exactly cheap, and you'd likely pay 10-to-20 percent more to live in most areas of Switzerland.

Covid-19 slowing down exits?  Maybe....but you won't know that story until the statistical folks clear all of 2020 data. 

Just something to ponder upon.

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