Focus did a fine update on recent polling, and it's going to shock a few folks.
By their polling numbers....the AfD Party will win with 26-percent of the state vote. Behind them by two points is the CDU Party (24-percent).
The Greens would only get 13-percent, with the SPD getting a pretty marginal number (6-percent). The Linke Party? Near 11-percent. And the FDP sits at 12-percent.
So building a coalition? Just about impossible.
Maybe you could run a four-party coalition....if the AfD totally fails (what I'd expect) with the CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP. But it's never gone to this extent of four lesser parties trying build a functional state government apparatus.
As for a message for the CDU and SPD? Well....yeah, this is going to be a pretty messy situation for the next week after this, and both parties will try to blame various things.
A lot of disenchantment related to refugees? No....not what you'd call a lot....but I'd say a quarter of population haven't bought the public TV message or the chatter of either the SPD or CDU. But there are other minor issues which have been building and Covid ban rules are in the middle of this as well.
If the SPD were to get less than 5-percent? Yeah, that would be a big deal for the national trend.
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