Monday, March 14, 2022

Same Repeat As 2014?

 One of the great disasters of German bureaucracy was the period of 2014 when various refugees were showing up in Germany, and the cities/states were left with a cost factor, and the federal government slow to grasp this issue.

Toward the end of 2014, there was a meeting (state officials versus federal officials) and 'knives' were out demanding a fund be created.  What occurred was the Finance Minister at the time  (federal level) saying he'd hand out a billion Euro in cash to the sixteen states....to divide up among the cities....using the 'key'.  On top of that, he agreed to offer one billion Euro in a loan deal to the sixteen states (I think this was a zero sum loan), but they had to pay this back.

The states accepted this but said at that time....within six months....they'd be back for more cash.

The German federal government in refugee crisis periods?  It's a goofy group with no grasp of what it takes to house, feed, or handle refugees.  They want pictures of them acting concerned for the public news crowd.....but they never understand the cost factor.

Today, this topic got brought up.  The Green Party (federal  level) said that a summit needs to occur with state/federal folks in a room....to discuss the cost factor.  This happening this week or next week?  No.  I would be guessing around early April, and another one-billion package will be worked out.  

The problem here.....they are around 140,000 Ukrainians in country, and if you look at the exit situation....it's pretty easy to say that half-a-million are in Germany by the end of June....maybe a million by fall, and going to a 1.5-million by early January 2023.

These temp structures being enough?  No.  

I would look at the mess going on and suggest that most of these people are going to be in Germany for more than three years.  Half of them may never return to the Ukraine.

If Ukraine ends up being 'Putin-stan'?  It wouldn't shock me if Poland, Germany and the remainder of the EU get ten-plus-million people....on a permanent basis.   

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