Bike Story

Back a few months ago, I essayed a piece on the new bike 'autobahn' that was planned up, going from Darmstadt to Frankfurt (31 km or 19.2 miles, and it'd typically take you about 100 minutes of leisure biking, or possibly 60 minutes with a battery 'lift').   Millions were going to be poured into this venture and everyone seemed 'thrilled' (as much as you can get over a paved bike trail).

So in the last day or two....the first piece of this new bike 'autobahn' has been completed (roughly 3.6 kilometers), from Egelsbach to Offenbach.  Here's the interesting thing....it's four meters wide (roughly 13 ft), lighted, and asphalt.  When this is all done....some folks have the idea that thousands of people per day will use this instead of taking the train or driving, from either city. 

My view is that they picked a highly urbanized area.....with probably forty different suburbs or villages between the two, and no matter how you swing this.....they'd probably get 10,000 people a day using some piece or part of this.  But being mostly flat....helped a lot. 

Expansion?  There are various routes being talked about and planned, with some are still five to ten years away. 

How this works in winter?  That's my sole negative view on the concept and money spent.  From November to March....I just don't see the routes being used much. 

Merz Chatter

A couple of months ago, there was an election within the CDU Party (Merkel's crowd) to promote someone to the role of party chief (Merkel was 'releasing this job from her responsibilities).  The thought generally given is that this person will be the Chancellor candidate upon her retirement in 2021 (the next election).  Merkel's chosen person?  AKK, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.  AKK for the record, is generally nicknamed 'mini-Merkel' because they both generally read off the same script. 

The opposing candidate in this little party chief job was Friedrich Merz.  Merz had been progressing up the ladder of the CDU Party up until about ten to twelve years ago.  A number of folks figured that disenchantment over Merkel was going to occur, and Merz was the obvious replacement person.  For the record, Merz is pro-commerce, pro-business, and has probably a different view on the role of Chancellor and where Germany should be going.  I certainly won't suggest that he is Trump-like, but in his mind....most of the answers to Germany's woes involve getting people jobs, and making German products more attractive.  Science and innovation would fill in the rest of the 'holes'.   Merz kinda got pushed out of roles within the party a decade ago, and quietly went off to work in the business world.  I would suggest that within the top 1,000 CDU members (the ones that matter).....Merz probably is seen by one-third to half of them as a very effective solution to the leadership issues existing now. 

So I noticed this morning, Merz came out and predicted the outcome for the second half of the year.  He expects the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition to dissolve after the 3rd state election (it'd wrap up in October).  He wasn't suggesting a FDP-Greens partnership to occur.....he figured a fresh new election.  So in his mind, the CDU would have to decide if AKK moves up, or if he would get nominated for the Chancellor nomination for the party.

It's curious how he worded this.....he bluntly said.....there's no new fresh ideas with this government (referring to the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition). 

How Merz might go in such an election?  The Greens will nominate Robert Habeck who is currently blazing away, and probably the 2nd most popular political figure in Germany at present.  With the youth vote going to the Green Party presently....Merz might be able to pull slightly more votes, but you have to wonder about the coalition outcome (the SPD will absolutely refuse to partner up, and the Greens are very likely to take 25-percent of the vote).  Since the CDU can't partner with the Linke Party or AfD.....then they are pushed into role with the Greens, or go to another election within four months. 

This might turn fairly interesting. 

What Led Merkel, and the Intellectual Crowd to Anti-Trump Stance

I kinda suggest this scenario probably played itself out.

Shortly after the November 2016 election, some insiders with the Obama camp (maybe the US Ambassador....maybe Hillary's team....maybe White House connections themselves) suggested that a good bit was going to be played out and that Trump would be gone by the end of 2017 (charges, resignation, or impeachment).  This assuring 'game' led them to be thinking that Trump was just a short-term 'problem' and then things would resolve themselves.

So by the end of 2017....the same sources of insider info, tried to reassure Merkel and the German intellectuals yet again....that the Mueller investigation would result in charges or a resignation.  So all of 2018 played out.

Here in the spring....the same sources kept reassuring folks that the report would settle the mess.

Now?  My humble guess is that various Obama and Clinton insiders are hinting that Trump can be beaten in the contest and the Germans just need to be patient. 

If November 2020 comes and Trump wins?  Well....all this patience is fine but you'd be talking about four more years, and again in my humble opinion.....you could be looking at yet another Trump-like candidate appearing in 2024. 

If this German coalition were to fall, and a new election were to be called.....there's this debate over who might be the CDU pick, and if they might go to someone who wasn't like Merkel and who was mostly just plain neutral over Trump.  With the Green Party and SPD folks.....it's a zero-percent chance. 

All of this.....just fed 'fake' info by insiders in Washington, and the intellectuals in Germany haven't figured that out yet?  More or less. 

How Did This Merkel-Trump 'Thing' Go So Far Negative?

Well....in the middle of March 2017....it was the first initial meeting between Chancellor Merkel and President Trump.  Trump walked in with one central theme and topic.....he wanted to talk trade and commerce, and what he perceived was a unfair situation on German tariffs that existed.   This meeting would NOT have been necessary if the EU and the US in the mid-summer period of 2016....gone and completed their 'nifty' trade agreement.  I should comment here....as the secret talks reaching an end-stage....various individuals from countries across the EU....walked in and read the points, and then said 'no way'. 

So as we stand here in June of 2019.....as of yet, there is no EU trade treaty with the US.  What remains are individual country trade agreements worked out over the past decades.  And it's a fairly strong chance that NO trade will ever occur between the EU and the US....ever.

So as this meeting started up.....Trump brought up the tariffs and trade situations, and Merkel just bluntly looked at him and said you need to deal with the EU.  We can do nothing.

Most business analyst will (from the German side) will strongly suggest that Merkel knows a few basic things about the German economy, but has no real strength on the topic.  She relies upon individuals within the cabinet to run the economical pieces and parts of the German system. 

By pushing Trump back....she figured that the EU would give him the message that the trade talks had collapsed and nothing would occur.

So when this tactic came up with the EU.....Trump said 'fine'.....let's have a tariff situation on various EU products and and affect 28 different countries.  The EU officials weren't expecting that. 

As the weeks went by....various industry folks came to their leadership in the 28 countries....mostly avoiding the EU, and suggesting that this really needed to be worked out.  The German car industry?  They were on the blunt end of being harshly affected. 

Merkel calmly realizing the situation leading back to her handling?  No....that never happened.  In her belief (supported likely by ex-President Obama).....Trump just doesn't grasp diplomacy and intellectualism.  The response here.....that's correct, Trump understands business and commerce.  Either all tariffs need to end, or effective new tariffs to settle problem go into place. 

Once these tariffs go into place?  German companies like BMW, Mercedes and Audi will be affected.  There are suggestions that they may go and start to increase car production in Mexico, or increase their production within the US.  That means some German jobs will disappear, and some jobs will start up in either Mexico or the US. 

Improving any of this?  No. 

There's this odd feature of German intellectualism going on presently, which believes that Trump will be voted out in 2020.  If that doesn't happen, then he will leave in 2024.  At no point do they grasp the point that a 2nd Trump-like character could appear in 2024, and be there for an additional eight years.  So this childish and intellectualism game is really set to screw a bunch of folks over in the long run. 

And the EU resolving this with a US-EU treaty?  It'll never happen. 

Political 'Opera'

There's hardly a week that goes by in Germany, without some political 'opera-like' event taking place and entertaining Germans.

So around two weekends ago, there was a state-election in Bremen (population 680,000....a major port city along the north coast).  Bremen and Hamburg are unique in German politics...in that they are both a city, and a state. 

The election went in this odd way for results.  For decades, the SPD had easily won first place and put together a government coalition to run the Bremen state government.  Well....in this recent election....the SPD lost (really coming in 2nd place).  The CDU Party (Merkel's party) won with 27-percent.  The CDU folks (led by this guy Meyer-Heder) had two choices for his coalition (to reach 50-percent).

Choice 1: Partner up with the SPD.  Well....they kinda said no.

Choice 2: Partner up with the Greens and FDP.  That talk hasn't gone anywhere.

The choice of a partnership with the AfD and Linke Party?  It'll never happen in a thousand years. 

So it's come out now that the Greens are heavily in talks with the SPD and Linke Party.  The general expectation is that once the CDU has exhausted it's coalition efforts....it'll go to the SPD, and wrap up real quick.

This SPD and Green talk has gotten some folks in Bremen a bit frustrated.  I admit....the CDU didn't exactly get a majority of votes (27-percent isn't that big of a deal).  But the fact that it's all geared up for the number two party and this left-left-left of center coalition to exist.....kinda says something about how German politics is motivated and working. 

Both the CDU and FDP folks are openly criticizing the Greens, but it's ethically and morally without any issue. 

The problem here (if you want to admit it exists).....as both the CDU and SPD grow weaker, and the public that typically votes for them realizes this.....the end-result is that lesser parties having massive influence and more fractured politics end up as the 'norm'.  And if you think this is a game that only involves the left side of politics....you might want to prepare for the AfD eventually gaining more support, or some other weird party appears out of thin-air to identify themselves as 'rightists'. 

Counting Mosques Story

So this is an odd 'problem' (maybe even a non-existent problem)....but I'll lay this out from this German news story.

Some political folks (lets just say of a conservative notion) have come to suggest that Islamic Mosques in Germany need to be known and registered. 

Naturally, the comeback here is that in the German Basic Law (the Constitution).....it says that freedom of religion is absolute.  For an awful long time.....no one has ever said to go and count up and know about the Christian church numbers. 

So you go and ask most Muslims about this, and they have two general 'quantity' numbers, which makes this an interesting topic.  If you ask official Mosques....it's around 900 in number.  However, there's this other definition at play.  There are hundreds of minor and lesser known prayer 'rooms' and 'structures' that exist, which might only be known in this neighborhood, or this end of town.....thus not on anyone's national list.  Some say (at least from a journalists point) that this number gets up to around 2,500 total. 

Who runs these?  That goes off into various directions as well.  Most are charity-supported.  If you asked about the chief guy in charge....the answer might go to some individual, or to a couple of guys. 

Why the German suggestion of registering these?  I get the impression that fears exist that there is this unknown out there.  They'd like to have a list of official and unofficial Mosques and the director of each.  But if you open up some requirement like this.....you'd have to go and do the same thing for Christians and various other religions, and then you start to beancount things in a massive way.

Just opening up a Pandora's Box?  I kinda think that.  You could go into some small village where six Muslim families live and one of the family members owns a restaurant that he offers a 2nd floor room for members to come and pray as a community.  Do you really need to get into this guy's business, if this is a personal and private option of his? 

City Tolls?

There's an active discussion going on in Baden-Wuerttemberg (the German state to the far SW, with Stuttgart as the capital).  The topic.....city tolls to encourage people from driving into the heart of cities.....to lessen pollution.

Yes, another incentive to bring more taxation upon the public and increase the general cost of groceries and other items.

No one is sure if there's public support for this, and it's mostly pushed by the Green Party. 

Selling the pubic on public transportation?  If you go and travel around urbanized cities (Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich, etc)....you tend to notice one significant factor....in the rush-hour periods....they are completely full (no extra room for another 25-percent or 50-percent more).  Even trying to run more trains?  The tracks and route system are saturated. 

I noticed a couple of days ago....riding a train out of Frankfurt to Wurzburg....they'd made this the full length of the platform/ramp area (around 15 cars).  With local city subway systems.....they've gone and done the same thing.  There's just not much left to expand upon.  So 'herding' people toward some toll?  I think it'll just make folks more negative about the agenda being used.

Have New Wildcards Developed for a German National Election?

Since the election in the fall of 2017....several factors have developed that may radically change voting results and the future stability of the country.  So I'll lay out this theory of mine, and how the dramatics may fall into place.

First, social media, fake news, unofficial commentary via YouTube....are now a direct conduit to youth-voting.  Of the roughly six-million Germans in the age group of 18-to-24, I would say that you could easily turn around four million of those votes easily away from the SPD and CDU Parties.  Yes, in some way.....it's a block of voters.

They could easily shift to the Green Party, or possibly become an fair sized block of voters for a new creation of a political party.  With four-million, you could be talking about 8-percent of a swing vote or a new party that has to be reckoned with. 

Second, if these voters did walk away from the CDU and SPD.....it means that those two, who used to take 60 to 70 percent of the national vote combined....would be highly weakened, and might only be able to mount a 35 to 40 percent situation in total national votes.  It means a highly weakened structure.

Third, this first group of youthful voters?  They aren't' the only possible group being created.  It is conceivable, with social media in full blast mode....might be able to combine all of the Hartz IV crowd (the welfare recipients of Germany) and welfare pensioners (those making marginal retirement to survive).  In this case?  It's around 12-percent of the German public.  You could subtract them as well....from the CDU and SPD rolls.  These welfare group would be able to communicate and demand changes to the structure.....or shift to a fringe party who would cooperate. 

You could be talking about one-quarter of German voters in play, and potentially weakening the national structure enough to bring in radical economic policies, enormous shifts on environmental platforms, and even set into play recessions/job losses.

What's the biggest weakness now to the two national 'big-parties'?  All those promises made over the years and most of promises never materialized or got delivered.  With social media and YouTube.....you can discuss this at length, and blame both the CDU and SPD for 'failures'.  The youth of Germany want the promises delivered, or they have the power to shift their votes.

I might go at this point and suggest the next decade being a rather hectic period, with national politics triggering some people to evaluate their economic survival, taxable situation, and future.  Just having this youthful group as a major force in government policy is one thing....but if you ended up with the bulk of the welfare class in Germany making radical demands and turning themselves into a political party that has to be reckoned with....it only deepens the political spectrum.