Are We Back In An Iron-Curtain Era?

 In the past ten days, I've read this suggestion from a Russian, a German, and an American.

So, I sat the past day or so....thinking over this.

Officially on the books....the Iron Curtain fell in the 1989/1990 period, when the Berlin wall came down.  Officially with the Air Force (I remember the day).....we were all given 'Cold War' medals in 1998 (no one could explain the eight-years of time difference....just that here's a medal for just standing around in this period of time).

In the Iron-Curtin era.....Soviets didn't really travel to the west, and Americans getting to Russia (for these stupid supervised tours) was a mess.

Russians read only propaganda news.  The trust in what they heard or read....was dismal....with most admitting they just didn't follow news anymore.  To some degree, even today....some Russians will just grin and admit they don't follow news, period.

What would happen in a modern Iron-Curtain era?  I would suggest five key things:

1.  Western items (from wines and cars, to technology items and aircraft) aren't going to be possible.  The substitute?  Well...mostly all Chinese-or-Belarus made.

2.  A lot of Russians went to Germany, France or Sweden for their cars.  The companies in Europe aren't allowing the mechanics to hook to the repair database or procure authentic parts.  Other than importing in a bunch of Chinese-made cars, I'm not sure where this whole landscape will drift into.

3.  The tourism situation, with hotels, airlines and tourist 'magnets'?  They are in a spiral at the moment.

4.  Qualified and educated people (like IT folks, chemists, engineers, etc)?  They aren't going to be thrilled over the control or the future prospects.....so I expect a fair number to pursue leaving Russia in 2022 and the future.

5.  Social networks will completely disappear around the globe with Russian content, while Russian networks will be solely approved Russian content.  

The chief problem, if you sit and think about where things have gone for 30 years.....people got used to a lot of westernized things. Some even traveled to France, Spain or Greece.....enjoying a lifestyle that was fairly limited prior to 1990.

There has to be a new term for this Iron-Curtain reference.  

As for the next decade?  I would suggest that several million Russians will find an exit door, and just leave Russia by 2030.  I don't want to say it's the smart guys....but these will be people who can shuffle their resume around and have value in the international market.

I also think that Putin's era will end, and we end up seeing at least two individuals do a 'tap-dance', and each find support dwindling.

The GDP?  They will end being somewhere down on the list.....maybe twenty to thirty spots from the top, and business analysts will grumble that the numbers presented....don't make much sense.  

Don't worry....eventually this dark era will end, and things will improve.  It's just that it might be 2050 before we see that bright future. 

Wine Bottle Chatter

 Our regional public TV folks (HR) went last night and discussed to a degree....a great problem approaching.....a glass shortage for the wine folks.

Leading back to natural gas costs?  To some degree.

So, there's this chatter going on.....about some type of deposit deal on wine bottles as you buy them, and you bring them back. 

Yes, like the soda or beer bottles routine.

Odds of this happening in 2022?  Hard to predict.

Adding to this.....if I walk into my five different grocery operations that the wife usually drags me to....there must be at least 1,200 'types' of wine bottles.  

Personally, it has never made sense to me.....being a regular wine-drinker....to consume sixty-odd bottles a year (some as cooking wine), and then just toss them away as perfectly good bottles.  

But the other side of this.....how would these Australian or Spanish or South African bottles....get returned?  There's a limit to this discussion.  

First Cars Gone, Then Bikes Gone

 I'll lay out this story over Berlin's Friedrichstrasse with some news from RBB (local Berlin public TV).  

For those who might have been around Berlin in the 1970s/1980s....Friedrichstrasse was a major street (going north - south) on the eastern side of the city.  It crossed the Spree, and Checkpoint Charlie lay on the southern part of the street.

In this era (1970s/1980s) cars went up and down the street.  It was a hub of transportation for people.

Well....things changed.  There's a km long area of the street that got blocked off from car traffic (Leipzig Strasse to Franzosischer Strasse).  The original idea was that part of the street would be used for cafe situations (you could sit there and have a beer or coffee), and the rest would be for bicycles/pedestrians.  

This concept has arrived at a new belief....that bicycles won't work.....too many pedestrians.  

So the new suggestion is that bikes will now be forbidden as well.

All of this affecting shopping in the district?  Well....yeah.  Dumping the car traffic played into fewer people wanting to mess with the inner city, and dumping the bikes will push things along this way.  

If you go and travel around Germany....especially urbanized areas....you find a lot of people want car-traffic hindered or halted.  You find this attitude in Berlin, Hamburg, Frankfurt, etc.  Some suggest tolls....to edge people out.  

Consideration of business operations and shopping?  This rarely comes up and people are shocked as major storefronts (having been there for decades) suddenly announce a closure and seek some out-of-town shopping mall situation.

What I find interesting in this story....is that bikes are also getting pushed out.  

The War (3 May 2022)

 1.  Interesting piece over at N-TV this morning.  Chatter about Russian Oligarch folks who put serious money in the past decade into Dubai (hiding assets).  Suggestion that almost 10,000 properties are owned by them.

2.  Lot of criticism being leveled at Chancellor Scholz in past couple of days.  He's been doing a lot of defending with public TV chats.

3.  US going defensive over Russia accusation of US being Nazi-like.

4.  UEFA (soccer) has said Russian women's team will be excluded from games in the UK set for July.  

My Perception of the Bavarian 2023 State Election?

 It is awful early, but there's a little development.

In the last state election, while the CSU won.....the SPD folks fell to a pretty low point (9.7-percent) and the Green Party finally 'arrived' (17.6-percent).

In the past month, the Greens have this guy, Anton Hofreiter, who was at the national level, and ended up with no cabinet post....so the Party was going to send him off to the EU parliament (letting him 'graze' over there for a while).

So this interesting thing with the Ukrainian war started up. Chancellor Scholz?  He went to his standard behavior (long demonstrated as mayor of Hamburg).....do little to nothing and avoid confrontations.

Well....Hofreiter stood up for the Greens and took to dragging Scholz along.  It's an unpleasant thing.....a Chancellor having a non-cabinet guy that he can't control or shut up.

Hofreiter?  He's a Bavarian, and in this view of the election (roughly 16 months away).....I would suggest that the regional state Green Party is entertaining the idea of inviting Hofreiter to come down and front their campaign.

Hofreiter versus Soder (CSU Party)?  Well....this might make things interesting, and pretty much derail any SPD hopes in the state election.

I might even go and suggest that with Hofreiter....the Greens might be entertaining a 30-percent situation, and marginally shut-out the CSU Party.

If this 2023 scenario were to play out?  Well....it has an effect on the next federal election in 2025, and you might notice Hofreiter being discussed as the national Green Party Chancellor candidate.  

Course, I am not a Green Party enthusiast.....but Hofreiter has mostly staked out some common sense positions which moderates and conservatives might agree upon.  Lets add this....Scholz as Chancellor....is kinda like a Merkel 2.0 version and folks would like to expect more on leadership.  

So you might want to watch this landscape, and if you see Hofreiter featured (big burley red-bearded guy that you'd think would be a WWE-wrestler)....spend a moment listening to his chatter.  

Adler Real Estate Woes?

 For about five years, Adler Real Estate (ADR) in Germany was moving along at 14 Euro per share, and considered a major player in the stock market.  In the fall of 2021, they dropped to 8.60 Euro a share, and some talk started up.  

There were some suggestions of fraud.  In the past couple of months....the chatter increased....an audit started up, and recently....half the board resigned.

Present stock price?  4.15 Euro, and it might be interesting to watch them this week....if they go below the 3.00 Euro point.

N-TV had a great piece on them this morning, and I'd say it's worth reading.  

What Adler says?  The audit isn't done....so don't get hyped-up.

Adding to this....their yearly rental income is actually pretty good.

This likely getting discussed a good bit in May?  Oh, I'd agree to that.

The War: 2 May 2022

 1.  Some chatter via N-TV this morning.....long story handed out by Ukraine's President.....200 Russian special forces folks, with 30-odd 'senior' officers (some Col's and Generals).....were either killed/wounded at some meeting yesterday, in eastern Ukraine.  

This top-top general of Russia (just arrived in the past day or two).....Valeriy Gerasimov....was hit by some shrapnel.  Stories (I've seen a dozen) seem to confirm his wound, and strongly suggest he was flown back to Moscow.  

On the big-deal game, I'd rate this attack and success as a '9', and if Gerasimov is sitting in some Russian hospital.....his future job prospects appear to be nearing a retirement.  

2.  N-24 said this morning that some Ukrainian areas (far east) are under Russian control, and they intend to introduce the Ruble as local currency.  Maybe there's some logic here, but I'd consider both the local currency and the Ruble.....on a negative prospective.  

3.  Worry about WW III in Germany?  I'd say in the past two weeks....it went up a notch.

Over the weekend.....the Interior Minister made some stupid commentary that Germans need to have a 'extra' supply of food/medicine on hand.  Then chatter came up about the 599 official government 'bunkers' in Germany.  I thought this was pretty irresponsible, and will just create a wave of panic with regular people.

I asked my wife on our 'bunker' situation, and she just said the basement area of the house was 'it' for anything within 20 kilometers.  Between booze/beer.....there probably is a good six week supply there, without any guests.

4.  Some chatter from ARD's public forum show (Anne Will) last night on TV....that between actions and sanctions....it will take years and years for Russia to rebuild their military. 

I will say this....if the 'war' continues through June (another 60 days).....there won't that much in the tank inventory to worry anyone for a full decade.  

German 'Dependence' on Russia?

 I sat and watched a piece by N-TV (commercial news here in Germany) this after noon.

So, things have changed in the past month.

Natural gas?  At beginning of 2022...Russia supplied 50-percent roughly of natural gas that Germany needed.  Presently, the amount is down to around 35 percent.

Oil?  Beginning of 2022....Germany was typically getting around 35-percent.  Now, it's down to about 12-percent.

Coal?  It was way up to around 50-percent at beginning of 2022.....now down to 8-percent.

Add to this.....lot of effort being done by port of Hamburg, to bring in a floating LNG terminal 'boat' by 1 January.  If that occurs, and the ship deliveries start up?  You might see another 10 to 15 percent cut by mid-spring 2023.