One of the odd aspects of Germany and elections.....is the age situation.
In municipal elections (cities)....there are 10 states where a 16-year old can vote. There are even four German states where 16-year olds can vote. In the federal election....you must be 18 years old to vote.
There is a discussion underway within the Bundestag on this topic. Some people think that since a high number of the 16-and-17 year olds are working within the apprentice fields already....being taxed....that they ought have the right to vote. Some also say that the vote-weight that exists with older generations (particularly over the age of retirement) needs to be counter-balanced.
But then, this topic of immature minds and inability to grasp the fundamentals come up. In the general opinion, people believe that a great reasoning power descends upon eighteen-year-olds and they see the broad landscape (sarcastically spoken of course).
Do younger people (under 18) vote more toward left-of-center or far-left? No one can cite much evidence of that. Germany already allows wine and beer consumption at 16....so they must believe they are adult-enough to make alcohol decisions.
Would most 16-year-olds even show up to vote? One can cite the city-elections where given the right....they will show up.
My humble opinion is that this topic will eventually reach a stage (maybe not in 2017) where the Bundestag will allow the youth vote to occur in national elections. I'll also go and predict out of thin air...some political comes to exist that is geared ONLY toward the younger generation and attempt to gravitate most of the youth vote to their political party.
Saturday, September 16, 2017
Friday, September 15, 2017
German Poverty Report
There was a fairly big news item from ARD (Germany's public TV network) today. The topic.....poverty and German kids.
The German federal ministry.....Family Affairs...came out and said after a long analysis period that one kid out of every five kids in Germany...live either in poverty, or on the edge of poverty. As they note....nothing much has improved in the past decade....other than the numbers getting worse.
They figure 2.8 million kids under the age of 18....live in this situation.
You can drive around Germany...ride the city buses, and simply view the nature of society in 2017. I compare my image against 1978...the first time I ever saw the landscape of Germany. In those days, you had a fair sum of Germans that you classified as plain working-class Germans, and you rarely noted anyone that you'd consider poor or in poverty.
What's happened since 1978? In my humble analysis.....it's a multi-level society today...with a fair number of wealthy Germans...a fair sum of upscale middle-class Germans....a fair sum of skill-craft Germans who do decent numbers with pay.....and then you come to the bottom level of poverty class folks.
This bottom level are people who've never been able to climb out....never had the skill sets or the certificates for better job-placement, and rarely found pay-raises to help lift them or their families. You can blame simple circumstance, bad luck, your lack of training or schooling getting you to the next step, or the area of the country that you live in. I've come to note that living around NRW (the northwest)....there's a higher unemployment rate, and companies don't need to advance pay much. If you live in Bavaria? A very low unemployment rate, limited apprentice kids, and a chance for advancing on pay every couple of years.
How this poverty thing affects Germany over the next decade? The government needs to find some angle to drag a fair number of people out. It means people-coaching....working up training programs to improve a guy's certificate situation....and working up some creative methods which avoid raising taxes yet again.
All of these 2.8 million kids.....will eventually go past age eighteen....and have voting power. In some ways....it's begging for a political period of upheaval.
The German federal ministry.....Family Affairs...came out and said after a long analysis period that one kid out of every five kids in Germany...live either in poverty, or on the edge of poverty. As they note....nothing much has improved in the past decade....other than the numbers getting worse.
They figure 2.8 million kids under the age of 18....live in this situation.
You can drive around Germany...ride the city buses, and simply view the nature of society in 2017. I compare my image against 1978...the first time I ever saw the landscape of Germany. In those days, you had a fair sum of Germans that you classified as plain working-class Germans, and you rarely noted anyone that you'd consider poor or in poverty.
What's happened since 1978? In my humble analysis.....it's a multi-level society today...with a fair number of wealthy Germans...a fair sum of upscale middle-class Germans....a fair sum of skill-craft Germans who do decent numbers with pay.....and then you come to the bottom level of poverty class folks.
This bottom level are people who've never been able to climb out....never had the skill sets or the certificates for better job-placement, and rarely found pay-raises to help lift them or their families. You can blame simple circumstance, bad luck, your lack of training or schooling getting you to the next step, or the area of the country that you live in. I've come to note that living around NRW (the northwest)....there's a higher unemployment rate, and companies don't need to advance pay much. If you live in Bavaria? A very low unemployment rate, limited apprentice kids, and a chance for advancing on pay every couple of years.
How this poverty thing affects Germany over the next decade? The government needs to find some angle to drag a fair number of people out. It means people-coaching....working up training programs to improve a guy's certificate situation....and working up some creative methods which avoid raising taxes yet again.
All of these 2.8 million kids.....will eventually go past age eighteen....and have voting power. In some ways....it's begging for a political period of upheaval.
15 September Election Poll
Merkel's CDU/CSU is pulling good numbers....37-percent.
The SPD? They lost another point (down to 20-percent). It is possible that they might NOT even make 20-percent on election day, which would be a huge shocker.
Combined CDU/CSU and SPD? It looks like they won't go past 57-percent, which is a big message from the public against both parties.
The AfD? They've climbed to 12-percent, and I suspect we will be fairly shocked at a 13-percent vote on election day. The rest stand stationary.
The news media? They are trying hard in the last two or three days to suggest a giant coalition situation....the CDU-CSU, with the Greens and FDP. It will be remarkable if this were going to happen and the amount of negotiations required between the four groups. Adding to this....the SPD could say 'absolutely no' to being a coalition partner and force the CDU into this four-way position.
For the SPD? I think there will have to be a year-long huddle....long discussion on rebuilding the party, and a search for new faces for 2021. I also have doubts that a four-way coalition will be able to survive the next four years, and early elections might be called upon.
Thursday, September 14, 2017
The Four-Way Coalition
In recent days in Germany, there's a new hype on the political coalition that might come out of this election....that the only option beyond the CDU-CSU-SPD option.....might perhaps be a CDU-CSU-Green-FDP option.
The FDP probably won't clear 10-percent on the vote, and the Greens will be lucky to get 7-percent.
The odds of a four-way coalition? I'd give it barely 20-percent chance.
How many cabinet positions would have be managed in this deal? The CSU would demand at least two, with the FDP and Greens likely asking for three each.
The Vice-Chancellor? Don't even bring up how this would be done.
The reason why topic comes up? There's some indication of another point or two coming up for the FDP, and that the AfD folks might actually get near 12-percent. Toss in a last-minute add-on with the SPD....and there just aren't that many options left for the coalition deal.
Merkel and a four-way situation for four years? It would take weeks of efforts to get all four parties on the same page, and agreeable to some form of a coalition. It'd be almost inviting disaster in some form within a year or two.....perhaps suggesting another election by 2019.
The FDP probably won't clear 10-percent on the vote, and the Greens will be lucky to get 7-percent.
The odds of a four-way coalition? I'd give it barely 20-percent chance.
How many cabinet positions would have be managed in this deal? The CSU would demand at least two, with the FDP and Greens likely asking for three each.
The Vice-Chancellor? Don't even bring up how this would be done.
The reason why topic comes up? There's some indication of another point or two coming up for the FDP, and that the AfD folks might actually get near 12-percent. Toss in a last-minute add-on with the SPD....and there just aren't that many options left for the coalition deal.
Merkel and a four-way situation for four years? It would take weeks of efforts to get all four parties on the same page, and agreeable to some form of a coalition. It'd be almost inviting disaster in some form within a year or two.....perhaps suggesting another election by 2019.
Test of Sharia
About three years ago, I made the comment to my German wife....that eventually some Islamic guy is going to challenge the German legal system, and want to have his Sharia-style divorce (the three-times-spoken divorce coment) recognized. She laughed.
Well.....yeah, it's come up now in the European Court of Justice.
What is suggested to the court is that this type of divorce in Europe is NOT legally acceptable. All of this goes back to an incident in 2013, where the Syrian guy said enough...did the Sharia-type divorce. The authorities say no....it's not going to be accepted.
How this might go? It'll be months probably before the ECJ renders some standing on this. The problem I see is that if you accept this version of a divorce....some other folks might suggest that it ought to all be this easily done and no real paperwork required. For the bureaucratic system, that just won't be accepted very well.
Well.....yeah, it's come up now in the European Court of Justice.
What is suggested to the court is that this type of divorce in Europe is NOT legally acceptable. All of this goes back to an incident in 2013, where the Syrian guy said enough...did the Sharia-type divorce. The authorities say no....it's not going to be accepted.
How this might go? It'll be months probably before the ECJ renders some standing on this. The problem I see is that if you accept this version of a divorce....some other folks might suggest that it ought to all be this easily done and no real paperwork required. For the bureaucratic system, that just won't be accepted very well.
Fashion Note
A few weeks ago here in Germany....school started back up. Typically, the start of school means teens show up in some weird dress fashion, and you just kinda stand there shaking your head.So, this was some Japanese-style look that the fourteen-year old had latched on and wore to day one of school.
For me....had it been my daughter, I wouldn't have allowed her to leave the house. The German school administrators? They might allow this for day one, and just look the other way in hopes that she won't wear it again.
For shock value....I give it a ten. Around the bus-stop (this was near mid-day)....I kinda noticed that all the retired German guys were looking at the outfit. Something like this in the 1960s wouldn't have existed.
On the Topic of Hurricanes
For about three weeks, I've continued to hear a fair amount of German news media hype over climate change and the two hurricanes in the US. 'An absolute connection' is drilled down into each comment. Some of this....I find very amusing. The warm waters temperature business is typically the key phrase to use in this gimmick.
So, some simple observations, which one might use in a German moment with some naive natives.
1. A hurricane runs like a car. You start with 'Outflow'....these are the upper atmosphere clouds which move clockwise....OUT and away from the hurricane, generally up above 30,000 feet. The more....the better (more intense). Then you come to 'Feeder Bands'....these are bands of showers which go hand-in-hand with winds and rain. Here again....the more, the better (the more intense). It would help if the water temperatures were warmer. Then you come to the 'Eyewall'.....which is simply rows of clouds, winds and rain which build section after section after exiting the eye of the hurricane. Finally, you come to the last of the four components....the 'Eye'. This is where low pressure matters (where you get the big numbers which matter for intensity of the storm). The lower the pressure....the more intense of the storm. While sitting in the middle of the eye....you actually have this half-a-hour moment where you think peaceful and calm,and the 'Eyewall' appears and you realize that the 2nd half of the storm is about to arrive.
2. So at this point, you bring up wind shear. The environmentalist will be unhappy about the topic because you can't build a model to predict anything on wind shear. You can ask the model....if X occurs and this wind shear occurs at this point, what happens? But in a minute by minute situation.....wind shear is typically an unpredictable thing. In a matter of minutes....wind shear could occur and transform a category five hurricane into a four, and in a matter of another five minutes....drop it another notch. A big difference between a category three and five? Yes. Oh, you will still have some broken windows, possible flooding, etc....but the house will still be standing (if built with the newer standards of the past twenty years in Florida).
3. Flooding. Little gets hyped about the rainfall situation. In Texas....the general count was around 40-inches of rain. In Houston, the locals will tell you that even with four inches....there would be some minor flooding. At ten inches....it's a big deal. Hurricane Katrina upon Louisiana from twelve years ago? It brought only ten inches of rain to the area. In their case, it helped that they are below sea-level and their levy system is marginally fixed to handle maybe a limited amount of rain. Hurricane Donna (1960) dropped around a dozen inches of rain, which led to some flooding. The 1804 hurricane that set down up on New York in mid-October? It dropped around 30 inches of snow on the local area. You need particular conditions to get a hyped up rainfall. For Hurricane Irma in Florida....the max rain that came down was 16 inches in the Fort Pierce area.....while you find a number of areas which got ten inches or less. As Irma decreased in central and north Florida as it progressed....less rainfall occurred, and so less flooding was the result.
It's hard for German to grasp this with all the hyped-up science talk involved.....but you need absolutely perfect conditions to raise the stage up to a category five hurricane....that's why there are so few in a normal year (don't bother trying to say the past twelve non-hurricane years were normal). You might also want to remind the German that you could have a storm which goes over a seven day period from category one to category five, and then because of various conditions beyond water temperature (wind shear helps a lot).....you could slowly move back down to category one or less by the time it reaches mainland.
The key thing in this discussion with a German hyped up on climate change....you would need more than one component to reach a hurricane stage, and each of the components could flip and make this less of an issue or more of an issue. Warm water temperature alone....won't cut it.
So, some simple observations, which one might use in a German moment with some naive natives.
1. A hurricane runs like a car. You start with 'Outflow'....these are the upper atmosphere clouds which move clockwise....OUT and away from the hurricane, generally up above 30,000 feet. The more....the better (more intense). Then you come to 'Feeder Bands'....these are bands of showers which go hand-in-hand with winds and rain. Here again....the more, the better (the more intense). It would help if the water temperatures were warmer. Then you come to the 'Eyewall'.....which is simply rows of clouds, winds and rain which build section after section after exiting the eye of the hurricane. Finally, you come to the last of the four components....the 'Eye'. This is where low pressure matters (where you get the big numbers which matter for intensity of the storm). The lower the pressure....the more intense of the storm. While sitting in the middle of the eye....you actually have this half-a-hour moment where you think peaceful and calm,and the 'Eyewall' appears and you realize that the 2nd half of the storm is about to arrive.
2. So at this point, you bring up wind shear. The environmentalist will be unhappy about the topic because you can't build a model to predict anything on wind shear. You can ask the model....if X occurs and this wind shear occurs at this point, what happens? But in a minute by minute situation.....wind shear is typically an unpredictable thing. In a matter of minutes....wind shear could occur and transform a category five hurricane into a four, and in a matter of another five minutes....drop it another notch. A big difference between a category three and five? Yes. Oh, you will still have some broken windows, possible flooding, etc....but the house will still be standing (if built with the newer standards of the past twenty years in Florida).
3. Flooding. Little gets hyped about the rainfall situation. In Texas....the general count was around 40-inches of rain. In Houston, the locals will tell you that even with four inches....there would be some minor flooding. At ten inches....it's a big deal. Hurricane Katrina upon Louisiana from twelve years ago? It brought only ten inches of rain to the area. In their case, it helped that they are below sea-level and their levy system is marginally fixed to handle maybe a limited amount of rain. Hurricane Donna (1960) dropped around a dozen inches of rain, which led to some flooding. The 1804 hurricane that set down up on New York in mid-October? It dropped around 30 inches of snow on the local area. You need particular conditions to get a hyped up rainfall. For Hurricane Irma in Florida....the max rain that came down was 16 inches in the Fort Pierce area.....while you find a number of areas which got ten inches or less. As Irma decreased in central and north Florida as it progressed....less rainfall occurred, and so less flooding was the result.
It's hard for German to grasp this with all the hyped-up science talk involved.....but you need absolutely perfect conditions to raise the stage up to a category five hurricane....that's why there are so few in a normal year (don't bother trying to say the past twelve non-hurricane years were normal). You might also want to remind the German that you could have a storm which goes over a seven day period from category one to category five, and then because of various conditions beyond water temperature (wind shear helps a lot).....you could slowly move back down to category one or less by the time it reaches mainland.
The key thing in this discussion with a German hyped up on climate change....you would need more than one component to reach a hurricane stage, and each of the components could flip and make this less of an issue or more of an issue. Warm water temperature alone....won't cut it.
Catalonia Goes to Next Stage
I've commented a couple of times in the past two weeks about this independence movement in Catalonia, Spain (northeastern side of the country).
So the next part of this episode is unfolding.
There had been a internet site up and running with information on the upcoming vote. At 7PM last night, the cops came to the internet provider and had him shut down the site......based on an order by a Spanish federal judge from Barcelona.
Naturally, the Prime Minister of the region, Carles Puigdemont, did a Trump-like movement. He stood up on Twitter and said he'd reopen the site shortly. Maybe the cops ought to get smart and take away his Twitter account.
My humble guess is that it'll be outside of the country, and very likely outside of the EU (maybe in Brazil, or on some Caribbean island). The cops and the judge might have more difficulty in shutting down this next site.
The cops and the court also went to the next stage on the mayors of the region. There's a Spanish federal investigation going on now with 700 mayors from Catalonia. These guys are in trouble for saying they'd provide voting structures (schools, gyms, etc). If they fail to provide the support.....the vote won't happen.
The interesting thing here is that the Spanish federal government is suggesting that the 700 mayors could be punished....imprisoned perhaps. If you were looking at a guaranteed way to get locals really hyped up and focused on having a vote....detaining or arresting the 700 mayors would absolutely make that happen.
On top of this (it only gets better), the Attorney General for the federal government of Spain says there's going to be a hearing and the 700 mayors must attend. Accusations? Disobedience and misappropriation of state funds is suggested. If they fail to attend....they will be arrested....so says the federal lawyer.
My guess is that all 700 will appear and then launch into a massive demonstration within the building....with a thousand-odd cops there to attempt to take down the mayors. Outside the structure? I'll bet at least 20,000 locals are prepared for the cops. All of this will be captured via live-feed and go out to the public. Instead of settling things or calming things down....it's only going to pump up the anti-federal government trend, and lead onto more hostility.
This vote....only two weeks away....is going to be fairly interesting to watch. But the actions of the 700 mayors? It'll make the effort iron-clad to occur now, in my humble opinion.
So the next part of this episode is unfolding.
There had been a internet site up and running with information on the upcoming vote. At 7PM last night, the cops came to the internet provider and had him shut down the site......based on an order by a Spanish federal judge from Barcelona.
Naturally, the Prime Minister of the region, Carles Puigdemont, did a Trump-like movement. He stood up on Twitter and said he'd reopen the site shortly. Maybe the cops ought to get smart and take away his Twitter account.
My humble guess is that it'll be outside of the country, and very likely outside of the EU (maybe in Brazil, or on some Caribbean island). The cops and the judge might have more difficulty in shutting down this next site.
The cops and the court also went to the next stage on the mayors of the region. There's a Spanish federal investigation going on now with 700 mayors from Catalonia. These guys are in trouble for saying they'd provide voting structures (schools, gyms, etc). If they fail to provide the support.....the vote won't happen.
The interesting thing here is that the Spanish federal government is suggesting that the 700 mayors could be punished....imprisoned perhaps. If you were looking at a guaranteed way to get locals really hyped up and focused on having a vote....detaining or arresting the 700 mayors would absolutely make that happen.
On top of this (it only gets better), the Attorney General for the federal government of Spain says there's going to be a hearing and the 700 mayors must attend. Accusations? Disobedience and misappropriation of state funds is suggested. If they fail to attend....they will be arrested....so says the federal lawyer.
My guess is that all 700 will appear and then launch into a massive demonstration within the building....with a thousand-odd cops there to attempt to take down the mayors. Outside the structure? I'll bet at least 20,000 locals are prepared for the cops. All of this will be captured via live-feed and go out to the public. Instead of settling things or calming things down....it's only going to pump up the anti-federal government trend, and lead onto more hostility.
This vote....only two weeks away....is going to be fairly interesting to watch. But the actions of the 700 mayors? It'll make the effort iron-clad to occur now, in my humble opinion.
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