Monday, September 7, 2015

Austrian Shift on Immigration Flow

Somewhere in the evening hours of last night....the Austrian leadership made the decision to cease the emergency measures of allowing refugees to just pass through on their way to Germany.

If you examine the EU framework on refugees.....there's this simple set of rules.  You as a refugee or aslyum you enter any EU country....if detained by the cops....will be signed up then and there under that country's legal system.  At that point, you remain in the country until your paperwork is completed.

Asylum, refugee and immigration paperwork?  It can take months.  No German journalist has ever sat down and challenged the government to explain the processes and steps.  Maybe there is a detailed analysis done and it's all done by some EU regulation on the matter.

Once approved, stay in that country until you have completed all steps and 'integrated' into that society.

With the Austrian step back to the normal rules....these folks in the transit stage of getting from Hungary....across reach Germany....will have a problem.

If you take out a map, Austria was the short-cut.  If the Austrians aren't cooperating with your plan, then you go to the second-best hike.....going through Hungary, then Slovakia, then Czech, and arrive at the German border (adding roughly 250 km or another week onto your trip).

Using the train out of Budapest, it's probably another twelve hours onto your trip.

If Czech has German pressure put upon it and tries to ramp up problems? hike northward out of Slovakia, into Poland. That's a bigger hike and probably will add a minimum of ten days onto your journey.

All of this leads to the EU design that you might sign into one country....get approved for status....and then discover that you won't stay in that country or Germany....but end up in Spain, or Poland, or maybe even Sweden.

Hostility or frustration coming from refugees then?  I'm guessing each will cite that they already have relatives in Germany and it makes no sense.  Courts will get involved and legal cases will take a full year to reach some absolute end or verdict.

All of this will lead back to annoyance within the EU member states.  None of them ever imagined this type of scenario, and their political stability is threatened (at least by half the membership) by a unstable situation.

I noted in CNN's coverage yesterday....some charitable food group who was pushing tons of food into Jordan for Syrian refugees there....said they were running out of money and would curtail their contributions, which were helping roughly 600,000 Syrian refugees there.   A bright guy would sit and analyze the situation, and determine within hours that staying in Jordan with a limited food supply was not possible.  More refugees looking at a European entry point?  I'd take a guess that thousands will make a decision this week, and tens of thousands will have decided by the end of September to exit Jordan.

One has to look forward at 2016, and anticipate that incoming numbers will continue at the same pace.

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