During my Air Force years, we had this expression about when 'crap' was about to hit the fan. This morning....a couple of German news sources laid out the next big event. The Interior Minister for Bavaria (Joachim Herrmann) has laid out the number one concern which will unfold in less than two weeks. You see....the Munich Oktoberfest will start....and they've come to realize that one of the key junctions for the incoming refugees and Germans....will be the Munich Bahnhof (the main station).
The odds of brawls starting up? You can guess the statistical average here....it's way above fifty percent.
It's Friday and this comment will hit the weekend newspapers, along with the Sunday evening political chat shows.
My humble guess is that by Monday, there will be several security meetings in Berlin and some political folks will be looking at the potential problem that Herrmann suggests.
The solution? A massive movement of German policemen to Munich. Probably a thousand more cops than normal....just to cover the Munich train station.
The thing is....if you sit and ponder upon it long enough....news people will be focused on this, and tons of cameras will be there for any possible fight. If someone wanted to really screw around and trigger a massive political problem in Germany....then you'd start a brawl.
It isn't just the right-wing folks that you'd have to worry about, or the neo-Nazi crowd....but even the radical elements of the refugee groups, and possibly some oddball group in the shadows.
When you go back and examine how Kristallnacht occurred (9 Nov 1938)...orchestrated by the Nazis but twisted into a wild trigger solution....it wouldn't be hard to see a mess coming, with huge implications.
Maybe Herrmann is right and doing the right thing in warning of a massive problem.
Flipping off the Octoberfest? No.....I'd probably still go....but I'd avoid the Munich train station. If there's trouble brewing, that's the place where it would start.