Thursday, September 10, 2015

The EU Formula

It is something that you can least from the science and math level.

This is the formula that the EU leadership introduced to establish a immigrant quota system upon the twenty-eight members of the EU.

How exactly is it developed?  Well....this is the simplicity of it.

You start with the size of an individual country and note their current population, which gives you a forty-percent weight value on the chart.  The more populated you are.....the more value you have.

Then you take the total GDP of the country, which again translates to a forty-percent weight value on the chart.  A country like Germany or France will have a very high value, while a country like Greece will have a very low value.

Then you have this odd factor....the average number of asylum applications over the previous four years.  On this factor, there's a ten-percent "inverse" weighting with a 30% cap of the population and GDP effect on the key.  What the EU says is that this will help avoid some disproportionate impact.  It's hard to say if that's true or not.  One should note that countries like Ireland or Greece....will have very few asylum applications over the past four years.

Then you come to the current unemployment rate of that country, which is another ten-percent inverse weighting with a 30% cap of the population and GDP effect.  Again, this is to avoid some disproportional impact.  Spain, Italy and Greece have a rather hefty unemployment rate, so they would subtract from the overall sum.

At this point, a country is given some magical number of refugees from the "pot".  Whether the refugee will agree to go to that country or not mentioned.

But we aren't really finished.  Each country would appoint individuals or officers to match up the refugees.....based on qualifications, language skills, family, cultural background, social ties.

It's the last part of this which is curious and you'd have to ponder upon

So, here is officer X working for country X.  He's handed a listing of 300-odd refugees as potential people for his country.  You'd have to have a personalized resume of the guy, his wife, the family situation, and a list of personal items.  Maybe the guy can only speak an Arabic language and some English, and maybe his wife speaks Arabic and some French....would that get them to England or to France?  If the guy has a degree in electrical engineering....would Spain jump right in and beg to have the guy or would Germany jump into the discussion and want him there?

Would a guy with six relatives in Germany get an automatic German bid as a refugee?  Would the guy's status as a Christian rate higher for Czech or Hungary?

It's a work of art when you examine the formula.  Based on this....if it were agreed upon.....I'd say that forty more days would be built into the delay because various countries would bid on certain people and pass on others.  If you had a guy with zero background, minimum education, no pluses on social ties....what happens to him?

My humble bet?  At least half of the member states of the EU (28 total) will sit and laugh over this formula after it's fully explained.  They absolutely won't agree to this. Someone might even be cynical enough to say that Czech will agree to the long as it's only Syrian rocket-scientists and circus performers that they have to accept.

The EU had to start somewhere, and this is the best that they could rig up in a week's time.  The sad thing?  You as a migrant, immigrant, or refugee....end up as a number on an Excel spreadsheet.  Your entire life and sum of accomplishments is based on values assigned by the computer, and where you a number game.

The fuss to come?  Let's say that the twenty-eight EU members agreed on this, and the typical four-month delayed approval/disapproval process continues.  Down the road in January, this family of eight members (husband, wife, aunt, grandmother, four kids and two cousins).....wake up one day in a German camp with great news....they've been approved.  Then the German guy have to get on the bus to Estonia.  There will be some momentary happiness, then they's not some village in Germany called's the actual country of Estonia.

The family will get quickly frustrated and hostile.  They've waited four months to get approval, and they walked all the way from Greece to Germany.  And now?  Being forced to Estonia?  The German guy will try to make it sound positive.  At least they got accepted, and it's rather nice in Estonia.  The Syrians will ask him how much money Estonia provides to newcomers, and the German will just look at the ground and say he doesn't know.....but Estonia is proud to have them.   The Syrians will try to sneak out of the camp and make it to Sweden.....hoping for another review.  The Swedes will look into the computer and respond that they are already approved....just get on the bus to Estonia.

People will talk for hours and hours about the formula and it's fairness or unfairness.  We as a modern society....end up in formulas every single day.  It's part of life today.  Capitalism is based on formulas.  Republics are built upon formulas. Our individual success or failure in mostly based on a formula.  So, here is the problem at hand, and a formula will be the end-result.

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