You can review a hundred different sources (either German, or European in nature, with various public TV journalists painting one image, and open-press presenting another image).
So I'll describe the protest movement in this way. Once the bans and shutdown business started in March....you had a limited period (a window) where people cooperated and played the exercise as stringent as possible. On my part, I'd say they were very lucky to get approximately 90 days of real participation out of this, and then they went to a relaxed ban situation, with heartburn by the general public over what remained.
The summer vacation season? If you took the risk to leave the country.....you found various little issues existing. Testing procedures are hyped-up and mandated.
School? The stay-at-home agenda marginally worked, with teachers saying now that kids probably did miss some critical knowledge 'gains'.
Loss of income? Ten-million Germans are on short-work, and getting a lesser paycheck. Tens of thousands of businesses are facing a rough period, and thousands will eventually declare bankruptcy.
Oktoberfest? Cancelled. Wine fests? Cancelled. Soccer games? The season was interrupted and only started up with 'ghost' games....meaning no fans in the stadiums.
Social media opened up this channel of discussion, and at the far extreme (mostly right)....you can probably say around two million Germans are not buying into more ban-chatter or ban-rules. Out of 83-million Germans, it's not a big deal. But the other side of this.....more and more Germans are frustrated and reaching a breaking point, so this radical anti-Corona behavior isn't that hard to attach one's self to, and accept.
Carnival season cancelled? This is coming up more and more. Christmas markets allowed only in the marginal sense? This is openly discussed now.
So the small nature of this group is going to expand over the next couple of months, and you will enter an election year.
This....the election year approaching....is what freaks German journalists, intellectuals and politicians out. You don't need ten-percent of German society hyped up and against national policy. No one wants an entire political campaign that is based primarily on easing Coronvirus rules/bans.
As for why no leftwing activity is attaching itself to the Covid-19 discussion? They've generally stayed with the normal topics of their movement. To be honest, they've probably skipped over the ban rules, and demonstrated that police efforts to control partying/drinking....are a waste of time. 'Rules are made to be broken' is more of their agenda.
Monday, August 31, 2020
Security Zone Around the Reichstag in Berlin?
Out of the demonstration held over the weekend (roughly 38k participants), the city political folks (a coalition government with the SPD, Greens and Linke Party)....are now openly discussing an idea to put up a protective zone around the Reichstag (the German capital building).
N-TV carried a good bit on this topic in the early AM of Monday.
So what is the angle of this discussion?
There is anxiety going on about images (video) where right-wing flags or symbology would be occurring in the world press, with the Bundestag in the background. It seems to be very disagreeable to the insiders of the political system.
How would this protective 'zone' work? Well, it's not that clear.
To the NE of the Bundestag, is the Spree River (maybe 100 meters away). You can't really fence this off very well.
To the east is the Jakob-Kaiser building (government office building)....but marginally 50 meters from the rear of the Bundestag.
To the south? You've got about ten meters then hit the Scheidemanns Strasse. On the other side of it....a city park, with the national memorial for the Gypsies and Senti.
To the west? A fairly big grassy area, with maybe 200 meters of space before you hit a street.
So putting up a barrier? You'd basically have to call it a 'wall', and then Berlin society would start laughing because they've seen those before, and can recommend 'wall-builders' if the government needs them.
All of this....if you start thinking about it....creates a entry and exit drama for politicians in the Bundestag. You have to either drive in, get dropped off, or ride the subway over the U-Bahn station about 200 meters away (the Bundestag U-Bahn Station).
A barrier or wall that would prevent the images? Mostly impossible.
The problem here....after unification....Berlin came under a unique design and became this 'picture-postcard'. Everything is open and designed for a bicycle society to function.
So I'm going to suggest that several designs will be put to the political folks, and each will suggest something that is dragging them back to the old Berlin-Wall days. Eventually, someone will suggest chopping off the whole area around the Spree River, and creating a 700-meter circular zone, with forbidden access to the general public.
N-TV carried a good bit on this topic in the early AM of Monday.
So what is the angle of this discussion?
There is anxiety going on about images (video) where right-wing flags or symbology would be occurring in the world press, with the Bundestag in the background. It seems to be very disagreeable to the insiders of the political system.
How would this protective 'zone' work? Well, it's not that clear.
To the NE of the Bundestag, is the Spree River (maybe 100 meters away). You can't really fence this off very well.
To the east is the Jakob-Kaiser building (government office building)....but marginally 50 meters from the rear of the Bundestag.
To the south? You've got about ten meters then hit the Scheidemanns Strasse. On the other side of it....a city park, with the national memorial for the Gypsies and Senti.
To the west? A fairly big grassy area, with maybe 200 meters of space before you hit a street.
So putting up a barrier? You'd basically have to call it a 'wall', and then Berlin society would start laughing because they've seen those before, and can recommend 'wall-builders' if the government needs them.
All of this....if you start thinking about it....creates a entry and exit drama for politicians in the Bundestag. You have to either drive in, get dropped off, or ride the subway over the U-Bahn station about 200 meters away (the Bundestag U-Bahn Station).
A barrier or wall that would prevent the images? Mostly impossible.
The problem here....after unification....Berlin came under a unique design and became this 'picture-postcard'. Everything is open and designed for a bicycle society to function.
So I'm going to suggest that several designs will be put to the political folks, and each will suggest something that is dragging them back to the old Berlin-Wall days. Eventually, someone will suggest chopping off the whole area around the Spree River, and creating a 700-meter circular zone, with forbidden access to the general public.
Political Chatter
We are closing in on the 1-year period prior to the national German election....so it would be near the point where the parties start to discuss the future, have party meetings, and agree on their Chancellor-candidates.
Over the weekend, the CDU-CSU and SPD parties met, and wrote up a draft for a national rule change.
Basically, they are concerned about Covid-19, and the idea of party meetings. The law says that a party meeting must be held, a vote occurring there, and the Chancellor-candidate coming out of this meeting (if you are an American, it'd be a Convention-like setting).
So they are going to amend the national voting law, and allow postal voting of the conferences.
The way this will work? It's not totally laid out but one would assume some video-presentation would be made to members only. Remember, in Germany, you pay to be a party member. If you don't pay.....you have no say in the candidate.
After the video-presentation, one would assume a ballot will be issued to you, and you select the candidate, and they proceed on.
Trust in the German postal system? You rarely hear of any incompetence with the Post people, and I'd rate their service at a higher level than what you see in the US.
What you can say about this election change coming....the fear of Covid-19 extends well into 2021, and this is probably the beginning of little exceptions to occur in the election year.
Over the weekend, the CDU-CSU and SPD parties met, and wrote up a draft for a national rule change.
Basically, they are concerned about Covid-19, and the idea of party meetings. The law says that a party meeting must be held, a vote occurring there, and the Chancellor-candidate coming out of this meeting (if you are an American, it'd be a Convention-like setting).
So they are going to amend the national voting law, and allow postal voting of the conferences.
The way this will work? It's not totally laid out but one would assume some video-presentation would be made to members only. Remember, in Germany, you pay to be a party member. If you don't pay.....you have no say in the candidate.
After the video-presentation, one would assume a ballot will be issued to you, and you select the candidate, and they proceed on.
Trust in the German postal system? You rarely hear of any incompetence with the Post people, and I'd rate their service at a higher level than what you see in the US.
What you can say about this election change coming....the fear of Covid-19 extends well into 2021, and this is probably the beginning of little exceptions to occur in the election year.
Sunday, August 30, 2020
Car Story
This is a true story and happened in a grocery parking lot down in SW Germany (Oberrot) in the past week.
Young German guy goes grocery shopping. For whatever reason, he forgets his car keys and leaves the door unlocked.
While he's inside....another shopper.....older lady (80 years old) comes out. She loads her groceries into his car and climbs in. Keys there on the seat. She drives home and parks in the garage.
At some point, her son enters the garage, and notices something not right (maybe the plates), and tells her of the problem.
The cops? They say the two cars in question are the same type, model and color.
One of those odd events that you'd have to happen in rural areas of Germany.
Young German guy goes grocery shopping. For whatever reason, he forgets his car keys and leaves the door unlocked.
While he's inside....another shopper.....older lady (80 years old) comes out. She loads her groceries into his car and climbs in. Keys there on the seat. She drives home and parks in the garage.
At some point, her son enters the garage, and notices something not right (maybe the plates), and tells her of the problem.
The cops? They say the two cars in question are the same type, model and color.
One of those odd events that you'd have to happen in rural areas of Germany.
Is the Current German Unemployment Rate Accurrate?
So, in the midst of the Coronavirus period.....it's probably time to review some facts.
1. How many Germans are on short-time work currently?
DW did an article several months ago....about two months into the period. The number then was placed at 10.1-million Germans. You have to remember....the most ever put on short-time work prior to 2020....was in 2009, with 1.4-million Germans. So we are at eight times that 2009 number.
For reference, in that 2009 period....the yearly unemployment rate was 7.7-percent, even with the short-time work deal.
2. How many Germans are employed....out of the 83-million?
As of this year, the German government says 44.5-million. That includes everyone....part-time, full-time, Germans, visa-holders, etc. So with the short-time in the mix.....one out of four people on the street....are hooked to short-time.
3. How many Germans are employed by the government itself.....at the local, district, state and federal level?
Well....the EU says 3.7-million Germans work in some capacity for the government. This includes the police, firemen, statistics people, etc.
None of them are on short-time work. So that skews the above mentioned numbers to some degree.
4. How long does 'normal' short-time work run? By law, 12 months. An exception has been drafted by the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition government, to run 24 total months....meaning past the election period of 2021, and into March of 2022.
The odds of another short-time extension occurring? You can't forecast something like this or give it odds. It's very possible to reach the fall 2021 election....find that nothing much has resolved the crisis,
5. The short-time law preventing dismissals?
This gets interesting, because the regulation says that as long as things appear to a routine returning to 'normal'.....you won't dismiss anyone. If you reach a consensus that 'normal' means reduced product sales, then you'd signal the government, and layoffs would then occur.
The odds of this? Basically, if you dig through all of the car manufacturing companies in Germany.....they are all hinting that a layoff period is coming. The timing of this is the unknown.
BMW says....worldwide, it will cut 6k jobs in the next twelve months. Mercedes is talking 15k jobs worldwide. Audi is saying 9.5k will be cut over the next four years.....as they close in on the electric car business. Before Corona came along, Opel was talking 2k-plus jobs in Germany going away, with some offers to Germans to take on work in France as part of the future.
6. How many Germans are on Hartz IV welfare?
Well....as of 2018, it was 5.9-million. These people don't generally count as looking-for-work. They are counted as being on the welfare rolls.
Affect on short-time work? Zero.
7. The current German unemployment rate?
As of July, the German government reports the national rate to be 6.4-percent (up from 5.3-percent in Feb of 2020).
The 2019 rate? It bounced around between 4.8-percent to 5.3-percent.
The worst rate over the past five years? 7-percent, January 2015.
If short-time didn't exist? You would have to figure that the bulk (75-percent) of the 10.1-million Germans on short-time would be laid off, and the unemployment would be in the range of 15-percent easily. If you counted in the Hartz IV welfare Germans.....it gets pretty dismal, but fortunately, those numbers are not inserted into the data collected.
8. Final question.....how long can short-time be funded? No one ever cites the size of this bucket or monthly cost to the government (has to be into the billions).
Under the old max size situation (2009), it came to a close before the 12th month, and the economy moved on.
The added threat of lesser tax revenue occurring? Well, this gets mentioned almost weekly.....across almost all sectors....there is simply less cash flow. You can talk to airlines, hotels, pubs, restaurants, car dealers, electronic shops....they all talk less in sales and tax collection. The hardware/home improvement industry? That's about the only industry that seem unaffected at this point in time.
Without the tax revenue collection at max potential.....it means that the government draws upon reserves to keep short-time funded and carry ailing companies along to some positive conclusion.
So by the rules of the 'game'.....the current unemployment rate is accurate. But this only works if you use short-time to carry the public to some successful conclusion (now likely being March 2022).
The odds that all of this draws serious employment chatter for the fall 2021 election? Better than 90-percent chance on this.
1. How many Germans are on short-time work currently?
DW did an article several months ago....about two months into the period. The number then was placed at 10.1-million Germans. You have to remember....the most ever put on short-time work prior to 2020....was in 2009, with 1.4-million Germans. So we are at eight times that 2009 number.
For reference, in that 2009 period....the yearly unemployment rate was 7.7-percent, even with the short-time work deal.
2. How many Germans are employed....out of the 83-million?
As of this year, the German government says 44.5-million. That includes everyone....part-time, full-time, Germans, visa-holders, etc. So with the short-time in the mix.....one out of four people on the street....are hooked to short-time.
3. How many Germans are employed by the government itself.....at the local, district, state and federal level?
Well....the EU says 3.7-million Germans work in some capacity for the government. This includes the police, firemen, statistics people, etc.
None of them are on short-time work. So that skews the above mentioned numbers to some degree.
4. How long does 'normal' short-time work run? By law, 12 months. An exception has been drafted by the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition government, to run 24 total months....meaning past the election period of 2021, and into March of 2022.
The odds of another short-time extension occurring? You can't forecast something like this or give it odds. It's very possible to reach the fall 2021 election....find that nothing much has resolved the crisis,
5. The short-time law preventing dismissals?
This gets interesting, because the regulation says that as long as things appear to a routine returning to 'normal'.....you won't dismiss anyone. If you reach a consensus that 'normal' means reduced product sales, then you'd signal the government, and layoffs would then occur.
The odds of this? Basically, if you dig through all of the car manufacturing companies in Germany.....they are all hinting that a layoff period is coming. The timing of this is the unknown.
BMW says....worldwide, it will cut 6k jobs in the next twelve months. Mercedes is talking 15k jobs worldwide. Audi is saying 9.5k will be cut over the next four years.....as they close in on the electric car business. Before Corona came along, Opel was talking 2k-plus jobs in Germany going away, with some offers to Germans to take on work in France as part of the future.
6. How many Germans are on Hartz IV welfare?
Well....as of 2018, it was 5.9-million. These people don't generally count as looking-for-work. They are counted as being on the welfare rolls.
Affect on short-time work? Zero.
7. The current German unemployment rate?
As of July, the German government reports the national rate to be 6.4-percent (up from 5.3-percent in Feb of 2020).
The 2019 rate? It bounced around between 4.8-percent to 5.3-percent.
The worst rate over the past five years? 7-percent, January 2015.
If short-time didn't exist? You would have to figure that the bulk (75-percent) of the 10.1-million Germans on short-time would be laid off, and the unemployment would be in the range of 15-percent easily. If you counted in the Hartz IV welfare Germans.....it gets pretty dismal, but fortunately, those numbers are not inserted into the data collected.
8. Final question.....how long can short-time be funded? No one ever cites the size of this bucket or monthly cost to the government (has to be into the billions).
Under the old max size situation (2009), it came to a close before the 12th month, and the economy moved on.
The added threat of lesser tax revenue occurring? Well, this gets mentioned almost weekly.....across almost all sectors....there is simply less cash flow. You can talk to airlines, hotels, pubs, restaurants, car dealers, electronic shops....they all talk less in sales and tax collection. The hardware/home improvement industry? That's about the only industry that seem unaffected at this point in time.
Without the tax revenue collection at max potential.....it means that the government draws upon reserves to keep short-time funded and carry ailing companies along to some positive conclusion.
So by the rules of the 'game'.....the current unemployment rate is accurate. But this only works if you use short-time to carry the public to some successful conclusion (now likely being March 2022).
The odds that all of this draws serious employment chatter for the fall 2021 election? Better than 90-percent chance on this.
Germany and Covid-19: 30 August 2020
1. Berlin Covid-19 Demonstration. What the police say (Focus covered a good bit of this).....around 38k people showed up and the majority conducted a peaceful protest.
ARD (public TV) talked a bit about the escalation that occurred around the Reichstag building, and how right-wing crowds threatened things. There's a fair amount of frustration with the politicians over the demonstration.
2. Carnivals (the fest season would start 2.5 months)....seem to be mostly cancelled out. N-TV did a decent report on this topic. If you find any town still continuing with fest idea, there are likely severe limitations (limited number of participants) being considered.
3. German testing labs are at full-capacity now. Increasing the capability? There's a discussion going on (N-TV reports this).....that animal labs (being used by veterinarians) are possibly being discussed and could easily flip from animals only....to multi-use and for Covid-19 testing.
4. I sat and watched a economics report on Frankfurt last night. They figure that even though shops have been re-opened now for almost three months....the city of Frankfurt is missing around 200k shoppers per day. Shop are just locals who don't have the cash flow to spend. Some are tourist-type shoppers just visiting the city.
Various shops are giving up, and shutting down. One lady in the video portion discussed her Frankfurt shoe shop of 21 years, and they were in the shut-down plan.
One aspect not discussed? All this missing sales activity....translates to missing tax revenue collection as well. That means as long as the commerce isn't there.....the government will not be able to cover their current spending plan. It might take a year for this to appear and be openly discussed....but it'll be a fairly dramatic moment.
ARD (public TV) talked a bit about the escalation that occurred around the Reichstag building, and how right-wing crowds threatened things. There's a fair amount of frustration with the politicians over the demonstration.
2. Carnivals (the fest season would start 2.5 months)....seem to be mostly cancelled out. N-TV did a decent report on this topic. If you find any town still continuing with fest idea, there are likely severe limitations (limited number of participants) being considered.
3. German testing labs are at full-capacity now. Increasing the capability? There's a discussion going on (N-TV reports this).....that animal labs (being used by veterinarians) are possibly being discussed and could easily flip from animals only....to multi-use and for Covid-19 testing.
4. I sat and watched a economics report on Frankfurt last night. They figure that even though shops have been re-opened now for almost three months....the city of Frankfurt is missing around 200k shoppers per day. Shop are just locals who don't have the cash flow to spend. Some are tourist-type shoppers just visiting the city.
Various shops are giving up, and shutting down. One lady in the video portion discussed her Frankfurt shoe shop of 21 years, and they were in the shut-down plan.
One aspect not discussed? All this missing sales activity....translates to missing tax revenue collection as well. That means as long as the commerce isn't there.....the government will not be able to cover their current spending plan. It might take a year for this to appear and be openly discussed....but it'll be a fairly dramatic moment.
Saturday, August 29, 2020
End to Frankfurt Train Station Murder Case
I essayed a bit in July of 2019 over the Swiss-immigrant who'd pushed a German kid into the path of a arriving train in Frankfurt's main station.
Well....the case concluded yesterday.
Based on a lot of research and questions....the judge agrees with the mental health experts....the guy is not capable of understanding guilt. No prison sentence....he'll spend the rest of his life in a mental facility. Nothing said over whether it'll be a Swiss or German facility.
What was the whole history on the guy?
He was originally from Eritrea, Africa. Around 2006, he made his way to Switzerland. He applied for asylum and was accepted.
What you can generally say (based on Swiss chatter)....is that the guy did a great job on integration. He learned the language. He got into a occupation. He worked and paid taxes. He married, and even had kids.
At some point, it appears around 2016/2017....something triggered issues (mental). No one can ever point to what happened....maybe just stress.
He ends up at a clinic and does a month of in-house therapy.
It's left to you to guess if some type of drug was prescribed. My humble feeling is that they gave him 'something'.
Things proceeded along for about a year, and then more issues developed. He admits to hearing voices at this point. The system should have 'clicked' and more in-house treatment should have occurred.
He gets into an argument in his apartment building....threats are made, and the police get called. The guy runs out the door.....boards an ICE train to Frankfurt, and that's where the 'push' occurs.
Paranoid schizophrenia? Both the Swiss and German authorities use the term. The doctor that the German court used....suggests that the guy is a continual threat (even now).
The case is closed, and maybe a year or two down the road....someone will write a book over the whole episode.
Well....the case concluded yesterday.
Based on a lot of research and questions....the judge agrees with the mental health experts....the guy is not capable of understanding guilt. No prison sentence....he'll spend the rest of his life in a mental facility. Nothing said over whether it'll be a Swiss or German facility.
What was the whole history on the guy?
He was originally from Eritrea, Africa. Around 2006, he made his way to Switzerland. He applied for asylum and was accepted.
What you can generally say (based on Swiss chatter)....is that the guy did a great job on integration. He learned the language. He got into a occupation. He worked and paid taxes. He married, and even had kids.
At some point, it appears around 2016/2017....something triggered issues (mental). No one can ever point to what happened....maybe just stress.
He ends up at a clinic and does a month of in-house therapy.
It's left to you to guess if some type of drug was prescribed. My humble feeling is that they gave him 'something'.
Things proceeded along for about a year, and then more issues developed. He admits to hearing voices at this point. The system should have 'clicked' and more in-house treatment should have occurred.
He gets into an argument in his apartment building....threats are made, and the police get called. The guy runs out the door.....boards an ICE train to Frankfurt, and that's where the 'push' occurs.
Paranoid schizophrenia? Both the Swiss and German authorities use the term. The doctor that the German court used....suggests that the guy is a continual threat (even now).
The case is closed, and maybe a year or two down the road....someone will write a book over the whole episode.
Bulk Quarantine
Mass building quarantines for Covid-19 are awful rare in Germany. There's probably been three or four apartment buildings in NW Germany since the spring, where the authorities stepped in and notified everyone in the building....they were on the forbidden to exit situation.
Today, via SWR (public TV for SW Germany), I noticed that the Hockenheim authorities (SW Germany), went and put an entire refugee center complex on a quarantine situation.
Effect? Roughly 75 people in the complex, and based on test results....at least 13 with the virus.
Today, via SWR (public TV for SW Germany), I noticed that the Hockenheim authorities (SW Germany), went and put an entire refugee center complex on a quarantine situation.
Effect? Roughly 75 people in the complex, and based on test results....at least 13 with the virus.
Friday, August 28, 2020
Another Ban Rule
My local town (Wiesbaden, 293k in population).....made a new rule up....applies as of today. It's another Covid-19 ban rule.
As you pause and wait for a bus at city bus-stops....you need to wear the mask. It was mandated when riding buses or trains, or when passing through the train-station. So just standing there at out-door bus stands....you got to wear it now.
A big deal? Well....depending on where you are going....you could be standing there 20 to 30 minutes. With rain or ice as an item, you need that cover while waiting. So it'll just challenge you a bit more with patience.
Standing off to the side? I'm guessing half of all bus riders will probably stand a good twenty to thirty feet away from the bus-stop in the future....avoiding the mask deal.
As you pause and wait for a bus at city bus-stops....you need to wear the mask. It was mandated when riding buses or trains, or when passing through the train-station. So just standing there at out-door bus stands....you got to wear it now.
A big deal? Well....depending on where you are going....you could be standing there 20 to 30 minutes. With rain or ice as an item, you need that cover while waiting. So it'll just challenge you a bit more with patience.
Standing off to the side? I'm guessing half of all bus riders will probably stand a good twenty to thirty feet away from the bus-stop in the future....avoiding the mask deal.
Germany and the Covid-19 Virus: 28 August 2020
1. Even though the Berlin-City authorities have cancelled the anti-Coronavirus demonstration for Saturday....there's still a lot of chatter going on. Some political folks (national political types) think this is simply opening the door for more frustrations by hindering the demonstration.
The odds that people will still assemble? I'd say more than 10k will gather and still conduct some type of demonstration (maybe without the speeches).
2. There's a medical association here in Germany now calling for a mandate that all teachers to wear masks....while in the classroom.
3. If you go to a restaurant here in Germany...there is a requirement to provide data (name, address, phone, email). Most Germans were thinking that it was data put in some folder and kept there for limited amount of time.
Well....NO. The data is taken daily and recorded into a national database. In recent days, it's been discovered that the data is NOT secure, and could be viewed by outsiders.
Based on ARD reporting, around 4-million entries are possibly open for viewing.
Just another reason not to eat out, during this crisis period.
4. Some federal rule changes came yesterday. One concerns people who go on vacations in hot-zones (as determined by the EU).
In the future, if you are a German, and knowingly go on a trip to a hot-zone (say coast of Croatia), then return with the Coronavirus, then that period of quarantine is on your back in terms of pay. The company or government is not responsible for your 'screw-up'.
What this changes? I would suggest a massive fall-off in terms of travel beyond the German border. Fortunately, we are at the end of summer, and most of these trips are now finishing up before the rule starts. Affecting things in 2021? Yes, to a massive degree.
5. Major events cancelled for remainder of the year? Yes, that came out of the Chancellor's meeting yesterday. Soccer is affected, as well as big name fests.
The odds of this correcting in 2021? Unknown. I would suggest another meeting occurring in late November, and the extension going to early April of 2021.
The odds that a ban situation will continue now through all of 2021? Unless some 'Jesus-vaccine' occurs, I'd say it's a 99-percent chance bans will continue on for all of 2021.
6. A challenge came up to the German Federal Constitution Court (their version of the Supreme Court of the US).....over the obligation of Corona testing at airports in Germany.
The court basically said yesterday that 'yes, you are obligated'. The government does have that authority to force into a testing situation.
Final observation. Reality is beginning to hit as the Christmas Market situations are being cancelled out now. I would expect a lot of Germans to be mentally drawn into a negative spiral as the markets fail to exist. Retailers will not make the amount of money that they'd typically draw for the season. It'll be a rough period for some folks to survive.
The odds that people will still assemble? I'd say more than 10k will gather and still conduct some type of demonstration (maybe without the speeches).
2. There's a medical association here in Germany now calling for a mandate that all teachers to wear masks....while in the classroom.
3. If you go to a restaurant here in Germany...there is a requirement to provide data (name, address, phone, email). Most Germans were thinking that it was data put in some folder and kept there for limited amount of time.
Well....NO. The data is taken daily and recorded into a national database. In recent days, it's been discovered that the data is NOT secure, and could be viewed by outsiders.
Based on ARD reporting, around 4-million entries are possibly open for viewing.
Just another reason not to eat out, during this crisis period.
4. Some federal rule changes came yesterday. One concerns people who go on vacations in hot-zones (as determined by the EU).
In the future, if you are a German, and knowingly go on a trip to a hot-zone (say coast of Croatia), then return with the Coronavirus, then that period of quarantine is on your back in terms of pay. The company or government is not responsible for your 'screw-up'.
What this changes? I would suggest a massive fall-off in terms of travel beyond the German border. Fortunately, we are at the end of summer, and most of these trips are now finishing up before the rule starts. Affecting things in 2021? Yes, to a massive degree.
5. Major events cancelled for remainder of the year? Yes, that came out of the Chancellor's meeting yesterday. Soccer is affected, as well as big name fests.
The odds of this correcting in 2021? Unknown. I would suggest another meeting occurring in late November, and the extension going to early April of 2021.
The odds that a ban situation will continue now through all of 2021? Unless some 'Jesus-vaccine' occurs, I'd say it's a 99-percent chance bans will continue on for all of 2021.
6. A challenge came up to the German Federal Constitution Court (their version of the Supreme Court of the US).....over the obligation of Corona testing at airports in Germany.
The court basically said yesterday that 'yes, you are obligated'. The government does have that authority to force into a testing situation.
Final observation. Reality is beginning to hit as the Christmas Market situations are being cancelled out now. I would expect a lot of Germans to be mentally drawn into a negative spiral as the markets fail to exist. Retailers will not make the amount of money that they'd typically draw for the season. It'll be a rough period for some folks to survive.
Thursday, August 27, 2020
Meldemuschi
The German word came up today....'Meldemuschi', and I had to go and look it up.
So it means in some way 'message pussy'.
The way this gets used....you have this German who wants to correct you and believes that the authorities or the social media 'muscle-boys' can force you into some situation. So they call the Facebook crowd, the Twitter crowd, the police, and 'rat' on you.
Some Germans will say that it's 'reporting pussies' (being plural).
Naturally, it's a critical term, and insulting in some ways.
The Meldemuschi failed to win the argument, and believes in his/her mind....you need to be stopped.
On Twitter these days....it's done a good bit, and the Twitter management has to close the case, and in most situations....they admit you didn't violate their policy. But the curious thing....they word this now...for Americans writing on American-Twitter....that they didn't violate German law.
The more often this comes up and the 'German law' thing appears, it just simply comes across like some 1933-era regulation and makes you imagine Brown Shirts at the door. It was never the intent when this Melemuschi creation occurred with social media, but that's the basic end-result.
So when you see or hear Meldemuschi....don't get worried. You'd been reported by someone who thinks your discussion or argument is dangerous, and they need to stop you.
So it means in some way 'message pussy'.
The way this gets used....you have this German who wants to correct you and believes that the authorities or the social media 'muscle-boys' can force you into some situation. So they call the Facebook crowd, the Twitter crowd, the police, and 'rat' on you.
Some Germans will say that it's 'reporting pussies' (being plural).
Naturally, it's a critical term, and insulting in some ways.
The Meldemuschi failed to win the argument, and believes in his/her mind....you need to be stopped.
On Twitter these days....it's done a good bit, and the Twitter management has to close the case, and in most situations....they admit you didn't violate their policy. But the curious thing....they word this now...for Americans writing on American-Twitter....that they didn't violate German law.
The more often this comes up and the 'German law' thing appears, it just simply comes across like some 1933-era regulation and makes you imagine Brown Shirts at the door. It was never the intent when this Melemuschi creation occurred with social media, but that's the basic end-result.
So when you see or hear Meldemuschi....don't get worried. You'd been reported by someone who thinks your discussion or argument is dangerous, and they need to stop you.
Germany: Where Exactly Do You Get Corona?
A study was completed by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) on the topic of 'where' Germans get the virus.
Most people, before this was done....probably would have said via buses and trains.
Deutsche Welle covered this story and gave a decent explanation.
The chief place where people got the disease or it was passed? At home.
In second place.....retirement homes.
Refugee centers and compounds? They get into the mix as well.
Schools, hotels, offices, buses, airports, railway stations, trains, bars, restaurants, and pubs? All far down on the list.
Shouldn't that reassure Germans? Well...if you look at these places on the much-lesser list....they get cleaned often. The retirement homes don't surprise me because of the lesser immune systems that you encounter there.
Most people, before this was done....probably would have said via buses and trains.
Deutsche Welle covered this story and gave a decent explanation.
The chief place where people got the disease or it was passed? At home.
In second place.....retirement homes.
Refugee centers and compounds? They get into the mix as well.
Schools, hotels, offices, buses, airports, railway stations, trains, bars, restaurants, and pubs? All far down on the list.
Shouldn't that reassure Germans? Well...if you look at these places on the much-lesser list....they get cleaned often. The retirement homes don't surprise me because of the lesser immune systems that you encounter there.
Germany and Corona News
1. The city authorities of Koln cancelled out the Christmas fest....official as of this morning. Focus reporting this.
More to come? I would expect most of the major cities to announce this over the next two weeks. Those who continue on....will run some type of scaled down operation where you can't eat food at the premises (my humble view).
2. Demonstration planned against the authorities of Berlin.....over Corona ban rules? Cancelled by the city council. Focus reporting that. Not much of a shocker. This type of demonstration is gaining momentum and probably would harm the election business (for the CDU and SPD) in 2021.
3. Local authorities in Wiesbaden are shutting down alcohol sales from midnight to 6 AM, because of increasing numbers of infection. Don't worry....you can still buy Coke at 1 AM.
They also announced that while standing outside, at a bus-stop....you have to wear the mask.
4. Some negativity at the Frankfurt Airport over the suggestion of a second lock-down coming shortly. They've barely built business back up (2nd terminal is still shut-down), and they don't want serious ban-rules to occur again.
5. Total disagreement on the Health Minister's idea to end 'free' testing at airports for Germans returning from 'hot-zone' countries. This idea (expressed over the weekend) come from the suggestion that the entire system has been taxed to the max....to handle these incoming folks, and probably pushing the limit.
Bavaria has said in a direct way....the tests need to continue, and need to be 'free'.
6. The Federal Ministry of Health assured people.....after you return from a 'hot-zone' outside of Germany, because of rules changing and you are mandated to take a two-week quarantine....there is NO loss of income and you don't have to use regular leave time for the quarantine (so it's basically sick-leave you burn up).
Reason? Section 56 of the Infection Protection Act passed earlier in the year....made this a guarantee upon people.
So even if you took the risk yourself, went to Croatia and came back with or without the virus....your quarantine time isn't upon your back.
I noted this to my German wife, who went ballistic. Here she resolves 2020....stays within Germany and gets no plus-up while the risk-takers get the plus-up. I'm guessing a fair number of working-class Germans feel that way.
7. The Pfalz state government announced that random Covid-19 testing will occur at various schools over the first ten days of September. Results influencing the path ahead for the school system in the state? More than likely. Teachers and students will be tested.
More to come? I would expect most of the major cities to announce this over the next two weeks. Those who continue on....will run some type of scaled down operation where you can't eat food at the premises (my humble view).
2. Demonstration planned against the authorities of Berlin.....over Corona ban rules? Cancelled by the city council. Focus reporting that. Not much of a shocker. This type of demonstration is gaining momentum and probably would harm the election business (for the CDU and SPD) in 2021.
3. Local authorities in Wiesbaden are shutting down alcohol sales from midnight to 6 AM, because of increasing numbers of infection. Don't worry....you can still buy Coke at 1 AM.
They also announced that while standing outside, at a bus-stop....you have to wear the mask.
4. Some negativity at the Frankfurt Airport over the suggestion of a second lock-down coming shortly. They've barely built business back up (2nd terminal is still shut-down), and they don't want serious ban-rules to occur again.
5. Total disagreement on the Health Minister's idea to end 'free' testing at airports for Germans returning from 'hot-zone' countries. This idea (expressed over the weekend) come from the suggestion that the entire system has been taxed to the max....to handle these incoming folks, and probably pushing the limit.
Bavaria has said in a direct way....the tests need to continue, and need to be 'free'.
6. The Federal Ministry of Health assured people.....after you return from a 'hot-zone' outside of Germany, because of rules changing and you are mandated to take a two-week quarantine....there is NO loss of income and you don't have to use regular leave time for the quarantine (so it's basically sick-leave you burn up).
Reason? Section 56 of the Infection Protection Act passed earlier in the year....made this a guarantee upon people.
So even if you took the risk yourself, went to Croatia and came back with or without the virus....your quarantine time isn't upon your back.
I noted this to my German wife, who went ballistic. Here she resolves 2020....stays within Germany and gets no plus-up while the risk-takers get the plus-up. I'm guessing a fair number of working-class Germans feel that way.
7. The Pfalz state government announced that random Covid-19 testing will occur at various schools over the first ten days of September. Results influencing the path ahead for the school system in the state? More than likely. Teachers and students will be tested.
Wednesday, August 26, 2020
On Short-Work
I've talked a bit over the past month about German short-time work, where the government steps in to pay a fair portion of your check.....if you aren't working 160 hours a month.
So ARD (public TV, Channel One) laid out the changes coming over the next couple of months. Remember, short-time existed long before Covid-19 came along and has often been used in recession periods that Germany had.
Normally, a worker will get 60 percent of his 'normal' base pay (net), with parents getting 67 percent.
Right now, during the crisis period....if your hours are reduced by 50-percent, then you get 70 percent, with parents getting 77 percent....after the fourth month of short-work.
After the seventh month of short-work, your percentage goes up to 80-percent, and parents getting 87-percent.
Under the present rules....it'd all end by the 12th month (figure around March/April of 2021). If the rule change occurs....March 2022 is the next deadline for ending this.
Helping or hurting people? It basically convinces some regular companies to keep hoping the economy will return, and NOT to fire/terminate employees. If you didn't trust the economy and felt it was better to let people go....that's your own situation.
As for the idea that 70 or 80 percent of regular pay will cover everything? That's probably the biggest joke of the discussion. Most working-class Germans will tell you that they are marginally getting by with 70-percent of their pay scale, and they've cut back on literally everything.....to survive. These are the people who aren't going on trips this year, and they aren't planning any purchases for refrigerators or washers.
On the positive....they can be pleased that they have a job, and some basic income going on....while waiting for some Jesus-cure on Covid-19.
So ARD (public TV, Channel One) laid out the changes coming over the next couple of months. Remember, short-time existed long before Covid-19 came along and has often been used in recession periods that Germany had.
Normally, a worker will get 60 percent of his 'normal' base pay (net), with parents getting 67 percent.
Right now, during the crisis period....if your hours are reduced by 50-percent, then you get 70 percent, with parents getting 77 percent....after the fourth month of short-work.
After the seventh month of short-work, your percentage goes up to 80-percent, and parents getting 87-percent.
Under the present rules....it'd all end by the 12th month (figure around March/April of 2021). If the rule change occurs....March 2022 is the next deadline for ending this.
Helping or hurting people? It basically convinces some regular companies to keep hoping the economy will return, and NOT to fire/terminate employees. If you didn't trust the economy and felt it was better to let people go....that's your own situation.
As for the idea that 70 or 80 percent of regular pay will cover everything? That's probably the biggest joke of the discussion. Most working-class Germans will tell you that they are marginally getting by with 70-percent of their pay scale, and they've cut back on literally everything.....to survive. These are the people who aren't going on trips this year, and they aren't planning any purchases for refrigerators or washers.
On the positive....they can be pleased that they have a job, and some basic income going on....while waiting for some Jesus-cure on Covid-19.
Concert Chatter
There was supposed to be a BIG concert on the 4th of September....in Dusseldorf, with a number of big name rock-stars (Sarah Conner among them)...but as of today, it's suspended (not cancelled).
What N-TV says is that it might still occur in the fall.....but it's more of a optimistic feeling than a reality situation.
Parts of this story? The city gave them permission for a maximum number of 13k seats (stadium could have easily held double that). As of today, they'd only sold roughly half of the 13k seats.
While some of this had been agreed upon by the city itself.....the state government hadn't been approached or told of the details until all of this had come out. The state authorities basically said that there was no legal basis upon which they'd allow this to occur.
In simple terms, you could spend a thousand man-hours working out the details with city health authorities, then find that the state health authorities wouldn't let you move one step forward on preparation.
I noticed via the Hessen news....a demonstration started up yesterday, with promoters and concert people. This was held in Wiesbaden and centered on their path to bankruptcy because of the Covid-rules set into place.
There's a whole segment of entertainment society.....which probably won't exist in six months, if the ban rules continue.
What N-TV says is that it might still occur in the fall.....but it's more of a optimistic feeling than a reality situation.
Parts of this story? The city gave them permission for a maximum number of 13k seats (stadium could have easily held double that). As of today, they'd only sold roughly half of the 13k seats.
While some of this had been agreed upon by the city itself.....the state government hadn't been approached or told of the details until all of this had come out. The state authorities basically said that there was no legal basis upon which they'd allow this to occur.
In simple terms, you could spend a thousand man-hours working out the details with city health authorities, then find that the state health authorities wouldn't let you move one step forward on preparation.
I noticed via the Hessen news....a demonstration started up yesterday, with promoters and concert people. This was held in Wiesbaden and centered on their path to bankruptcy because of the Covid-rules set into place.
There's a whole segment of entertainment society.....which probably won't exist in six months, if the ban rules continue.
Political Chatter
So late last night, if you stay up and watch the news....the CDU/CSU parties, along with their coalition partner (the SPD Party)....sat down and agreed on a number of measures, which will get the 'pass' in the Bundestag, and have significant improvement in the economy of Germany.
First, short-time work went from 12 months, to 24 months. Short-time, if you aren't into the phrase....is where you the boss have x-number of workers who aren't fully producing because of the economy (Covid-19 issues). You admit that a number of your employees only need to work a quarter of their normal hours (or maybe half). So you send them home. The government makes up for the lesser hours by paying their pay up to a 65-percent (to go up to 80-percent shortly). It's not a perfect situation, but it's better than the guy or gal being unemployed.
So the one-year period would come to an end in March of 2021, if this had not been resolved. Now? It'll go through to March of 2022.
Curiously, the group agreed on a commission to meet and discuss election reform. Attached to this? The idea of extending voting rights to German youths....16 years old. The idea of flipping from a four-year voting situation....to five-years? That will be openly discussed as well. Reducing the size of the Bundestag (currently 709 members)? That will be part of the discussion as well.
Whether change actually does occur? Unknown. The youth vote thing will draw a lot of attention....both positive and negative.
First, short-time work went from 12 months, to 24 months. Short-time, if you aren't into the phrase....is where you the boss have x-number of workers who aren't fully producing because of the economy (Covid-19 issues). You admit that a number of your employees only need to work a quarter of their normal hours (or maybe half). So you send them home. The government makes up for the lesser hours by paying their pay up to a 65-percent (to go up to 80-percent shortly). It's not a perfect situation, but it's better than the guy or gal being unemployed.
So the one-year period would come to an end in March of 2021, if this had not been resolved. Now? It'll go through to March of 2022.
Curiously, the group agreed on a commission to meet and discuss election reform. Attached to this? The idea of extending voting rights to German youths....16 years old. The idea of flipping from a four-year voting situation....to five-years? That will be openly discussed as well. Reducing the size of the Bundestag (currently 709 members)? That will be part of the discussion as well.
Whether change actually does occur? Unknown. The youth vote thing will draw a lot of attention....both positive and negative.
Tuesday, August 25, 2020
Wedding-Covid Story
Around two weeks ago....there was a wedding party for a newly married Wiesbaden couple. The party ended up being held in Mainz-Mombach. Location-wise....it's a suburb of Mainz....far to the NW, on the Mainz side of the river, and directly across from Wiesbaden.
Roughly a hundred guests end up there at this reception hall/catering operation. Generally, with the Pfalz rules in effect....you have to maintain Covid-19 sanitation rules, and limit guests. You also have to keep a list of attendees.
Well....nothing much worked as directed. At this point, eighteen folks are infected, and another 35 folks are in some form of quarantine.
So here's the thing....the couple and the in-laws running this....haven't been cooperative on providing a listing of guests. This reached a point with the Wiesbaden Health Director getting involved, and it's turned into a fairly direct situation.
The threat of fines? Well, that's the next point in this entire game. Why the lack of detail on attendees or giving names? No one can make a clear statement on this.
The sad thing about this whole 'game'.....you end up with adults attending this celebration....coming home, and possibly infecting their kids or neighbors, so in a matter of a ten-day period....one single guy could infect a dozen folks.
Roughly a hundred guests end up there at this reception hall/catering operation. Generally, with the Pfalz rules in effect....you have to maintain Covid-19 sanitation rules, and limit guests. You also have to keep a list of attendees.
Well....nothing much worked as directed. At this point, eighteen folks are infected, and another 35 folks are in some form of quarantine.
So here's the thing....the couple and the in-laws running this....haven't been cooperative on providing a listing of guests. This reached a point with the Wiesbaden Health Director getting involved, and it's turned into a fairly direct situation.
The threat of fines? Well, that's the next point in this entire game. Why the lack of detail on attendees or giving names? No one can make a clear statement on this.
The sad thing about this whole 'game'.....you end up with adults attending this celebration....coming home, and possibly infecting their kids or neighbors, so in a matter of a ten-day period....one single guy could infect a dozen folks.
The Birth Rate Dilemma of Germany
It's a short discussion they had at N-TV news this morning....chatting over the declining population of Germany.
Excellent project by Manuel Slupina (the Berlin Institute for Population and Development). Worth a five-minute read.
While the population decline isn't that dramatic for the next decade....starting around 2035....the decline will be obvious. It will go from 83-million (presently) to 66-million by 2100.
Why? You could spend an hour discussing this, but it leads to three characteristics:
1. For a hundred years, birth-control has been readily practiced in Germany, and since the end of WW I....German women have figured into the business, commerce and industry picture. The days of families having 3 or more kids? Mostly over.
2. The cost of living is such....that generally....families will limit themselves to one or two kids.
3. Even when you have new immigrants arrive....which you'd think they'd keep the old-country tradition going with more kids....NO, they adapt and within a generation usually, they go to the German expectations.
So this leads the study to ask this round of questions. Will the labor market change? Will cities shrink? Will pensions be a problem? Will health insurance work the same way?
At the heart of this discussion....the pension program will begin to see issue in twenty to thirty years.
I might argue here that rural areas will be the one worst hit, and cities will continue to be the focus of next generation or two.
You might be able by 2050 to drive out to rural communities today which have 300 residents, and find in 30 years....less than fifty people exist in this village, with forty-odd houses sitting vacant.
Yes, change is coming....it's just that most of us won't be around in 2050 or 2100 to see it in Germany.
The odds of an open-immigration door continuing to exist? It wouldn't surprise me if the door in ten years were to swing wider, and various Asian groups start to migrate into Germany. Same for some Latin American countries.
Excellent project by Manuel Slupina (the Berlin Institute for Population and Development). Worth a five-minute read.
While the population decline isn't that dramatic for the next decade....starting around 2035....the decline will be obvious. It will go from 83-million (presently) to 66-million by 2100.
Why? You could spend an hour discussing this, but it leads to three characteristics:
1. For a hundred years, birth-control has been readily practiced in Germany, and since the end of WW I....German women have figured into the business, commerce and industry picture. The days of families having 3 or more kids? Mostly over.
2. The cost of living is such....that generally....families will limit themselves to one or two kids.
3. Even when you have new immigrants arrive....which you'd think they'd keep the old-country tradition going with more kids....NO, they adapt and within a generation usually, they go to the German expectations.
So this leads the study to ask this round of questions. Will the labor market change? Will cities shrink? Will pensions be a problem? Will health insurance work the same way?
At the heart of this discussion....the pension program will begin to see issue in twenty to thirty years.
I might argue here that rural areas will be the one worst hit, and cities will continue to be the focus of next generation or two.
You might be able by 2050 to drive out to rural communities today which have 300 residents, and find in 30 years....less than fifty people exist in this village, with forty-odd houses sitting vacant.
Yes, change is coming....it's just that most of us won't be around in 2050 or 2100 to see it in Germany.
The odds of an open-immigration door continuing to exist? It wouldn't surprise me if the door in ten years were to swing wider, and various Asian groups start to migrate into Germany. Same for some Latin American countries.
Free Covid-19 Test for Travelers Ending?
Well....as quickly as this mandated requirement came up and it was set for free....the discussions are now going to turning off the 'free' deal.
Kinda funny, if you think about it.
So what ARD news (public TV, Channel One) says....while there is no agreement yet, it will be forthcoming.
The German federal government will revise the test business at the conclusion of summer vacation periods (coming up in roughly 2 to 5 weeks). This is the disagreement among folks....some want mid-September. Some want the end of September.
Added to the change....test requirements from high-risk areas will end at the same time.
What gets added? As you return from a high-risk vacation site....you will enter a 14-day quarantine in Germany, unless you test negative. They are careful to note, it'll be in your home or apartment. If you think about it....to go back to work on time....you'd have to test. Doing this over the weekend, via your doctor? Zero, or impossible. So you'd have to take Monday off as part of the quarantine game, probably Tuesday as well....waiting for results, and then return to work on Wednesday.
So what drove this change? Well....deep into the numbers, all the added tests of the past month put the labs in Germany to maximum capacity.
Kinda funny, if you think about it.
So what ARD news (public TV, Channel One) says....while there is no agreement yet, it will be forthcoming.
The German federal government will revise the test business at the conclusion of summer vacation periods (coming up in roughly 2 to 5 weeks). This is the disagreement among folks....some want mid-September. Some want the end of September.
Added to the change....test requirements from high-risk areas will end at the same time.
What gets added? As you return from a high-risk vacation site....you will enter a 14-day quarantine in Germany, unless you test negative. They are careful to note, it'll be in your home or apartment. If you think about it....to go back to work on time....you'd have to test. Doing this over the weekend, via your doctor? Zero, or impossible. So you'd have to take Monday off as part of the quarantine game, probably Tuesday as well....waiting for results, and then return to work on Wednesday.
So what drove this change? Well....deep into the numbers, all the added tests of the past month put the labs in Germany to maximum capacity.
Covid-19 Study
Back in March, in the early stages of the Covid-19 business in Germany....there was a village in eastern Germany had a severe up-start with the Coronavirus. N-TV (commercial news) did a update on this village and a surprising research project by a university in the region.
This story revolves around Neustadt am Rennsteig. Population 1,100 folks, and you'd classify it as a farming village. Location? About half-way between Jena and Fulda. For an American, you'd say it's halfway in the middle of nowhere. Near an autobahn? No. Any industry? Just some folks who produce glass products. Tourism? Well, a fair number of folks come in the winter period to do hiking and ski activities.
You might take the tourism angle and just suggest that some non-locals showed up in February and passed around Covid-19.
This was the village that Thuringia (the state) went and did a complete 'lockdown'. The infection rate set the pace for this action.
So the University of Jena went recently and did a study of antibodies in the locals. Free test.....plenty of volunteers. It's been five months since the lockdown period and went back to normal.
The test results? About half of the folks who were noted with the virus in March....show NO antibodies now.
Now, the number of folks who were identified with the virus in March? 49. But they covered around 600-odd people to see if any other results showed up.
All of this equaling? More or less, if you get Covid-19, your immunity starts drifting immediately downward....in a matter of weeks, not months or years. The way this was written....suggests that everyone has a different pattern, where some have immunity that lingers longer than others. Reason? Unknown, and it might be years before they figure out why Johann is different from his wife Rita.
This story revolves around Neustadt am Rennsteig. Population 1,100 folks, and you'd classify it as a farming village. Location? About half-way between Jena and Fulda. For an American, you'd say it's halfway in the middle of nowhere. Near an autobahn? No. Any industry? Just some folks who produce glass products. Tourism? Well, a fair number of folks come in the winter period to do hiking and ski activities.
You might take the tourism angle and just suggest that some non-locals showed up in February and passed around Covid-19.
This was the village that Thuringia (the state) went and did a complete 'lockdown'. The infection rate set the pace for this action.
So the University of Jena went recently and did a study of antibodies in the locals. Free test.....plenty of volunteers. It's been five months since the lockdown period and went back to normal.
The test results? About half of the folks who were noted with the virus in March....show NO antibodies now.
Now, the number of folks who were identified with the virus in March? 49. But they covered around 600-odd people to see if any other results showed up.
All of this equaling? More or less, if you get Covid-19, your immunity starts drifting immediately downward....in a matter of weeks, not months or years. The way this was written....suggests that everyone has a different pattern, where some have immunity that lingers longer than others. Reason? Unknown, and it might be years before they figure out why Johann is different from his wife Rita.
Monday, August 24, 2020
Cost of the German ID Card Going Up?
Yes. Reported by N-TV this afternoon.
The current price of a German national ID card is 28.80 Euro (roughly $33).
The new price for 2021? 37 Euro (roughly $42). A hefty rise. Luckily, it's good for ten years.
The current price of a German national ID card is 28.80 Euro (roughly $33).
The new price for 2021? 37 Euro (roughly $42). A hefty rise. Luckily, it's good for ten years.
Testing Change Coming?
I watched N-TV this afternoon, and a new German idea is occurring on vacations outside of Germany, and the mandated Covid-19 test upon returning to Germany from a 'hot-zone'.
In the month since this decision was announced the mandated test idea was thrown into action.....what the authorities can mostly say is that it's awful complicated to ID each person who fits this profile, and force them to take the test (via the airport, their doctor, or at the autobahn point).
So the Federal Ministry of Health is talking about the new idea....the standard would be folks returning from risk areas would be told (directed) to take a 5-day quarantine upon arrival in Germany. The quarantine would ONLY end with a negative test result.
The big issue? They want all EU members to agree to this, and all sixteen German states to sign up to it.
The odds of reshaping the 'pain' of this test business? Marginal.
Maybe in their mind....if you had five days of extra time, you'd skip the airport testing and just drive home....to be tested by your local doctor the next day. As for autobahn entry into the country? Maybe there's the advantage where you just drive through, and head onto your home, with the test a day or two later.
In the month since this decision was announced the mandated test idea was thrown into action.....what the authorities can mostly say is that it's awful complicated to ID each person who fits this profile, and force them to take the test (via the airport, their doctor, or at the autobahn point).
So the Federal Ministry of Health is talking about the new idea....the standard would be folks returning from risk areas would be told (directed) to take a 5-day quarantine upon arrival in Germany. The quarantine would ONLY end with a negative test result.
The big issue? They want all EU members to agree to this, and all sixteen German states to sign up to it.
The odds of reshaping the 'pain' of this test business? Marginal.
Maybe in their mind....if you had five days of extra time, you'd skip the airport testing and just drive home....to be tested by your local doctor the next day. As for autobahn entry into the country? Maybe there's the advantage where you just drive through, and head onto your home, with the test a day or two later.
Germany and Covid-19: 24 August 2020
1. There's a good piece over at N-TV this morning....discussing infection immunity. Some new studies suggest if you did have Covid-19, there is 'some' immunity and for a period of time....you'd likely not be infected. Different from person to person? Yeah, that's really the discussion hype to the news item.
If you think about the discussion....all of this would lead to a anti-bodies test (to later be developed) and some type of measurement given to you (maybe you have six months of immunity....maybe you have two years of immunity).
2. The three German states with significant new infection rates: Hessen, NRW, Baden-Wurttemberg.
3. Moodys came up in the N-TV business news....talking over worries of Covid-19 and commercial loan deals for property. What they say is that 'considerable risk' is at play here and banks could dig themselves into a spiral.
4. My local town of Wiesbaden made up a new ban rule.....no groups of more than 50 people, with prior approval. So weddings and birthday parties have a limit now.
5. Authorities put a kindergarten operation in Bad Nauheim under quarantine. Two weeks for the kids and the operations staff.
6. There's a discussion that came up in Hessen, over tests administered to teachers. The public TV folks (HR) went and asked questions over this process. Doctors are saying that once you administer the Covid-19 test.....if you wait 72 hours before the lab opens the test and check results....the test could be deemed invalid.
7. Berlin-City is reaching a maximum capacity on Covid-19 testing (locally).....saying they are at the 93-percent point of what they can handle.
Cause? Well....all these travelers now forced to test upon returning from their vacation. Odds that this will ease? Vacation periods for the summer are ending shortly, and this testing business will probably drop by significantly within three weeks.
If you think about the discussion....all of this would lead to a anti-bodies test (to later be developed) and some type of measurement given to you (maybe you have six months of immunity....maybe you have two years of immunity).
2. The three German states with significant new infection rates: Hessen, NRW, Baden-Wurttemberg.
3. Moodys came up in the N-TV business news....talking over worries of Covid-19 and commercial loan deals for property. What they say is that 'considerable risk' is at play here and banks could dig themselves into a spiral.
4. My local town of Wiesbaden made up a new ban rule.....no groups of more than 50 people, with prior approval. So weddings and birthday parties have a limit now.
5. Authorities put a kindergarten operation in Bad Nauheim under quarantine. Two weeks for the kids and the operations staff.
6. There's a discussion that came up in Hessen, over tests administered to teachers. The public TV folks (HR) went and asked questions over this process. Doctors are saying that once you administer the Covid-19 test.....if you wait 72 hours before the lab opens the test and check results....the test could be deemed invalid.
7. Berlin-City is reaching a maximum capacity on Covid-19 testing (locally).....saying they are at the 93-percent point of what they can handle.
Cause? Well....all these travelers now forced to test upon returning from their vacation. Odds that this will ease? Vacation periods for the summer are ending shortly, and this testing business will probably drop by significantly within three weeks.
The System
I admit it....I watch too much German Hartz IV TV programming. My German wife even criticizes my interest.
Several of the commercial networks now in Germany feature at least two or three shows per week, where the camera crews hang out with welfare folks, and you get an hour of seven to ten Germans on Hartz IV (the welfare program).
Lina will have been unemployed for seven years, have 3k Euro of tattoos, show no signs of money management while at the grocery, and chain-smoke 35 cigarettes per day (which she personally rolls herself).
Mila hasn't worked since the 6th of August 1997. She'll have a detailed explanation of the day, and how she got terminated at the grocery for habitual errors at her job. She'll be the one that seems to be a bit 'dopey' and obviously smoking weed more than once or twice a day. How she pays for the weed out of Hartz IV money is never detailed.
Karl has worked sixteen jobs over the past decade, and none of them more than two months. He seems to habitually want to correct his bosses, and tell people how to fix things.
Lukas is a 50-year old skinny-as-a-rail alcoholic that consumes sixteen half-liter cheap beers per day. He, luckily, has his sister who does his laundry and ensures he gets lunch each day. If he remembers anything after 4 PM each day....he's lucky.
Yeah, it's soap-opera like and after several weeks of viewing.....you kinda know the individual. These are all individuals who you'd regard as failures in life, and discarded by the system with 'free' money to marginally keep them going in life.
It's obvious that 50-percent of the group could recover and be productive, but you'd have to invent a support structure....with daily coaching, some form of drug/alcohol rehab, and force them to move out of their neighborhood/city to start a new life.
The odd thing is that they've all been recruited to be in these shows, and form some type of unusual 'entertainment' for the general public. This is not the kind of entertainment that existed twenty years ago......this is more like a soap opera, with twists and turns....some amusing....some very serious in nature. In some cases, you feel awful sorry for the person. In other cases, you'd like for some German social worker to kick the lazy ass out of the person.
Peaked out? This has been a trend for at least five years, and I would imagine another five will occur before the public tires of the 'shows'.
Several of the commercial networks now in Germany feature at least two or three shows per week, where the camera crews hang out with welfare folks, and you get an hour of seven to ten Germans on Hartz IV (the welfare program).
Lina will have been unemployed for seven years, have 3k Euro of tattoos, show no signs of money management while at the grocery, and chain-smoke 35 cigarettes per day (which she personally rolls herself).
Mila hasn't worked since the 6th of August 1997. She'll have a detailed explanation of the day, and how she got terminated at the grocery for habitual errors at her job. She'll be the one that seems to be a bit 'dopey' and obviously smoking weed more than once or twice a day. How she pays for the weed out of Hartz IV money is never detailed.
Karl has worked sixteen jobs over the past decade, and none of them more than two months. He seems to habitually want to correct his bosses, and tell people how to fix things.
Lukas is a 50-year old skinny-as-a-rail alcoholic that consumes sixteen half-liter cheap beers per day. He, luckily, has his sister who does his laundry and ensures he gets lunch each day. If he remembers anything after 4 PM each day....he's lucky.
Yeah, it's soap-opera like and after several weeks of viewing.....you kinda know the individual. These are all individuals who you'd regard as failures in life, and discarded by the system with 'free' money to marginally keep them going in life.
It's obvious that 50-percent of the group could recover and be productive, but you'd have to invent a support structure....with daily coaching, some form of drug/alcohol rehab, and force them to move out of their neighborhood/city to start a new life.
The odd thing is that they've all been recruited to be in these shows, and form some type of unusual 'entertainment' for the general public. This is not the kind of entertainment that existed twenty years ago......this is more like a soap opera, with twists and turns....some amusing....some very serious in nature. In some cases, you feel awful sorry for the person. In other cases, you'd like for some German social worker to kick the lazy ass out of the person.
Peaked out? This has been a trend for at least five years, and I would imagine another five will occur before the public tires of the 'shows'.
The Fake Russian Story
About thirty years ago, this Austrian guy rose out of the ranks in the political arena....to make some gains. His name? Heinz-Christian Strache.
What you can generally say is that he is a right-of-center type....maybe three steps 'extra' to the right. His party? FPO....the Freedom Party.
About fifteen years ago, the Freedom Party was undergoing some issues and dividing itself into factions. Several district losses occurred, and something had to change for the party. It was at this point (2005) that he put his name out there and went to be 'boss' of the Party.
So for the October 2005 national election in Austria....he selected the topic that the party would run upon....too many foreigners in Austria.
The slogans came out: "Heimat im Herzen" (Homeland in the heart), "Wien darf nicht Istanbul werden" (Vienna mustn't become Istanbul, a slam against the Turks), and "Deutsch statt "nix verstehen" (Speak German, don't say I don't understand).
Yes, it was an entire election strategy built on a common theme of hostility in Austria.
The rebound occurred in this election, and the FPO took 15-percent of the national vote.
For the city election in Vienna in 2010....the FPO used the same strategy and took around 26-percent of the vote. Again, the slogans and strategy stayed on the immigration issue.
Strache was set, and probably would have been an influence on Austrian politics for another decade....but in the summer of 2017....he got invited to a non-political meeting....in Ibiza, Spain.
What can be generally said is that Strache and a second member of his party are there in this hotel-room....having a discussion over political strategies with this gal who claims that she's the niece of a Russian oligarch (rich billioniare). Her uncle is said to be Igor Makarov. So the Russian gal is hinting of giving some positive news items in exchange for contracts in the business world.
What contracts? This is never spelled out in detail.
Proof that she was niece of Makarov? That was never spelled out in detail.
Who got Strache and this 2nd guy to meet up in Ibiza? That was never spelled out in detail.
The key thing....this meeting was video-taped and put into a 'secret-pocket' for about 22 months (coming out in public in the summer of 2019).
In a matter of days, the coalition government collapsed, Strache is 'fired', and a massive investigation is launched. It was political chaos at the five-star level.
So just over a year has passed now.
One curious piece of the scandal was left on the table.....you never got to see the entire video of this meeting in Ibiza, with the fake Russian niece. It was an odd piece of the story left for you to wonder about.
Who held the entire video? Two German news units: Spiegel and Süddeutsche.
The entire transcript is supposed to be released of the meeting now, and both news organizations are opposing this in a significant fashion. You would think....if everything they said is factual.....there should be no issue.
Well....it's not that way.
Another news organization....out of Austria (OE24)....has somehow gotten a 30-odd page transcript of five minutes of the meeting....from a state prosecutor, and in this piece....Strache doesn't agree with any money details or 'selling' anything.
At some point, Strache even says he wants to come out of these discussions 'clean' and not concerned with any stupid scandal.
Focus told a great deal of this story, over the transcript and the investigation problems.
Where does this lead onto? At some point, the government investigation team has to release their results, and either press charges or drop the matter.
Who shot the video and released this to the two German news organizations? Unknown. I'm only speculating but the prosecutors probably know this part of the story as well.
The odds that this whole thing gets dropped? No scandal?
The next Austria national election? Summer/fall of 2024, unless there is an early election.
My humble guess is that this will drift around until mid-2021 and the prosecutors finally give up, with no charges or wrong-doing noted. Then they lay out this problem of the fake Russian gal and who she was actually working in support of, and there's going to be this next round of political fall-out. Enough turmoil to create an entire new election? Maybe.
As for fake Russian gal? Nowhere to be found. Was she even Russian? Zero evidence at this point. She did speak German with a accent but you would assume it was all fake. She bluffed her way to get the meeting arranged, and bluffed her way through a fake negotiation. Then she just walks out the front-door to never be seen again.
Yeah, it's a great movie script if you think about it.
What you can generally say is that he is a right-of-center type....maybe three steps 'extra' to the right. His party? FPO....the Freedom Party.
About fifteen years ago, the Freedom Party was undergoing some issues and dividing itself into factions. Several district losses occurred, and something had to change for the party. It was at this point (2005) that he put his name out there and went to be 'boss' of the Party.
So for the October 2005 national election in Austria....he selected the topic that the party would run upon....too many foreigners in Austria.
The slogans came out: "Heimat im Herzen" (Homeland in the heart), "Wien darf nicht Istanbul werden" (Vienna mustn't become Istanbul, a slam against the Turks), and "Deutsch statt "nix verstehen" (Speak German, don't say I don't understand).
Yes, it was an entire election strategy built on a common theme of hostility in Austria.
The rebound occurred in this election, and the FPO took 15-percent of the national vote.
For the city election in Vienna in 2010....the FPO used the same strategy and took around 26-percent of the vote. Again, the slogans and strategy stayed on the immigration issue.
Strache was set, and probably would have been an influence on Austrian politics for another decade....but in the summer of 2017....he got invited to a non-political meeting....in Ibiza, Spain.
What can be generally said is that Strache and a second member of his party are there in this hotel-room....having a discussion over political strategies with this gal who claims that she's the niece of a Russian oligarch (rich billioniare). Her uncle is said to be Igor Makarov. So the Russian gal is hinting of giving some positive news items in exchange for contracts in the business world.
What contracts? This is never spelled out in detail.
Proof that she was niece of Makarov? That was never spelled out in detail.
Who got Strache and this 2nd guy to meet up in Ibiza? That was never spelled out in detail.
The key thing....this meeting was video-taped and put into a 'secret-pocket' for about 22 months (coming out in public in the summer of 2019).
In a matter of days, the coalition government collapsed, Strache is 'fired', and a massive investigation is launched. It was political chaos at the five-star level.
So just over a year has passed now.
One curious piece of the scandal was left on the table.....you never got to see the entire video of this meeting in Ibiza, with the fake Russian niece. It was an odd piece of the story left for you to wonder about.
Who held the entire video? Two German news units: Spiegel and Süddeutsche.
The entire transcript is supposed to be released of the meeting now, and both news organizations are opposing this in a significant fashion. You would think....if everything they said is factual.....there should be no issue.
Well....it's not that way.
Another news organization....out of Austria (OE24)....has somehow gotten a 30-odd page transcript of five minutes of the meeting....from a state prosecutor, and in this piece....Strache doesn't agree with any money details or 'selling' anything.
At some point, Strache even says he wants to come out of these discussions 'clean' and not concerned with any stupid scandal.
Focus told a great deal of this story, over the transcript and the investigation problems.
Where does this lead onto? At some point, the government investigation team has to release their results, and either press charges or drop the matter.
Who shot the video and released this to the two German news organizations? Unknown. I'm only speculating but the prosecutors probably know this part of the story as well.
The odds that this whole thing gets dropped? No scandal?
The next Austria national election? Summer/fall of 2024, unless there is an early election.
My humble guess is that this will drift around until mid-2021 and the prosecutors finally give up, with no charges or wrong-doing noted. Then they lay out this problem of the fake Russian gal and who she was actually working in support of, and there's going to be this next round of political fall-out. Enough turmoil to create an entire new election? Maybe.
As for fake Russian gal? Nowhere to be found. Was she even Russian? Zero evidence at this point. She did speak German with a accent but you would assume it was all fake. She bluffed her way to get the meeting arranged, and bluffed her way through a fake negotiation. Then she just walks out the front-door to never be seen again.
Yeah, it's a great movie script if you think about it.
Sunday, August 23, 2020
Mask Chatter
This weekend, the political folks (well, mostly the CDU Party boss....AKK)....got to this new idea.
Federally....mandate that not only in schools would masks be fully required (teachers and kids) but also in work-places.
ARD, public TV, Channel One, did a decent description of the idea.
Right now, if you work in a store, shop, pub, restaurant, bar, or the transportation industry (buses, and trains).....you wear the mask, period. Beyond that, it's not mandated.
I brought this up with my German wife, who marginally is agreeable to wear a mask for shopping and traveling purposes. Her 'duty-day' is roughly six hours, and she made it fairly blunt, this would really hype her into being negative about the mask.
Me? I'm retired, and this discussion doesn't really apply to me. I will admit....the max I can handle is about 90 consecutive minutes of mask-wear, and then I'd have to take a break of 15 minutes.
The union folks on this idea? 'Cheap mask solution' was uttered, and it's obvious that they don't see the benefit.
The far-left view? They'd like for the ultra-fancy and high-class filtered masks to be handed out (they didn't say free, but usually everything they advocate....is free).
Where this is going to go? Well....infections are up, and the political folks are hyped up for another ban-period. So this idea probably would be long-discussed, and probably forced down upon people by the end of September.
Presently, the anti-Corona and anti-ban crowd numbers around 15-percent of society. If I were guessing....some implementation like this would throw another 10-percent of the general public onto the anti-ban discussion.
Having an effect? Science-wise, the experts will tell you that the cheaper paper-made mask (without the filter) has marginal effect. They won't say 'zero-effect' but its fairly close to that. That's my favorite mask because you allows air-flow to occur and you aren't breathing the humid air that much. Cost? Roughly 90 cents per mask.
The KN-95 mask, with the filter? Roughly 3.5 Euro ($4) each. The problem with it....while effective, you'd have to use it for a 10-hour day, and then dump it. Figure five days a week....you'd need almost 20 Euro a week to cover that cost.
So the next month will be curious on how this discussion comes and goes.
Federally....mandate that not only in schools would masks be fully required (teachers and kids) but also in work-places.
ARD, public TV, Channel One, did a decent description of the idea.
Right now, if you work in a store, shop, pub, restaurant, bar, or the transportation industry (buses, and trains).....you wear the mask, period. Beyond that, it's not mandated.
I brought this up with my German wife, who marginally is agreeable to wear a mask for shopping and traveling purposes. Her 'duty-day' is roughly six hours, and she made it fairly blunt, this would really hype her into being negative about the mask.
Me? I'm retired, and this discussion doesn't really apply to me. I will admit....the max I can handle is about 90 consecutive minutes of mask-wear, and then I'd have to take a break of 15 minutes.
The union folks on this idea? 'Cheap mask solution' was uttered, and it's obvious that they don't see the benefit.
The far-left view? They'd like for the ultra-fancy and high-class filtered masks to be handed out (they didn't say free, but usually everything they advocate....is free).
Where this is going to go? Well....infections are up, and the political folks are hyped up for another ban-period. So this idea probably would be long-discussed, and probably forced down upon people by the end of September.
Presently, the anti-Corona and anti-ban crowd numbers around 15-percent of society. If I were guessing....some implementation like this would throw another 10-percent of the general public onto the anti-ban discussion.
Having an effect? Science-wise, the experts will tell you that the cheaper paper-made mask (without the filter) has marginal effect. They won't say 'zero-effect' but its fairly close to that. That's my favorite mask because you allows air-flow to occur and you aren't breathing the humid air that much. Cost? Roughly 90 cents per mask.
The KN-95 mask, with the filter? Roughly 3.5 Euro ($4) each. The problem with it....while effective, you'd have to use it for a 10-hour day, and then dump it. Figure five days a week....you'd need almost 20 Euro a week to cover that cost.
So the next month will be curious on how this discussion comes and goes.
Stop and Go Story
I was watching N-TV news this morning, and they brought up this one curious Covid-19 item....involving Austria.
A lot of Germans (particularly Turk-Germans).....have avoided using airlines for their trips to Turkey, Greece and Croatia this summer. Yes, they drove down. For the record, the Austrians themselves were doing the same thing.
In the case of German to Antalya, Turkey (their beach resort area), it's a 30-hour drive from Frankfurt. In the case of a northern Greek coastal town.....that's a 20-hour drive. In the case of Croat beach resorts, that's a 12-hour drive.
Here's the problem though....you have to plan this trip in most cases, to drive via Austria. Trying to get around Austria....just adds three to five more hours onto your journey.
Well....N-TV points out this new strategy at the Austrian border as you enter and exit. You get to the border from Croatia (a hot-zone) and immediately, the Austrian border guards stop you and want you to perform some paperwork. At one point, last Sunday night at the border....a 12-km long line was formed, with paper waiting to advance and fill out the forms.
The funny thing about this paperwork-drill....they weren't just angering and upsetting Germans....they also upset Austrians trying to get home as well.
Unless something happens via the EU by next spring, I would anticipate most all of the European countries having some kind of stop-and-go situation and asking where you've been (as you enter a country) and demand paperwork or possible even Covid-19 tests. So a simple three-day trip to Slovakia could turn into a major mess at the border.....coming and going.
A lot of Germans (particularly Turk-Germans).....have avoided using airlines for their trips to Turkey, Greece and Croatia this summer. Yes, they drove down. For the record, the Austrians themselves were doing the same thing.
In the case of German to Antalya, Turkey (their beach resort area), it's a 30-hour drive from Frankfurt. In the case of a northern Greek coastal town.....that's a 20-hour drive. In the case of Croat beach resorts, that's a 12-hour drive.
Here's the problem though....you have to plan this trip in most cases, to drive via Austria. Trying to get around Austria....just adds three to five more hours onto your journey.
Well....N-TV points out this new strategy at the Austrian border as you enter and exit. You get to the border from Croatia (a hot-zone) and immediately, the Austrian border guards stop you and want you to perform some paperwork. At one point, last Sunday night at the border....a 12-km long line was formed, with paper waiting to advance and fill out the forms.
The funny thing about this paperwork-drill....they weren't just angering and upsetting Germans....they also upset Austrians trying to get home as well.
Unless something happens via the EU by next spring, I would anticipate most all of the European countries having some kind of stop-and-go situation and asking where you've been (as you enter a country) and demand paperwork or possible even Covid-19 tests. So a simple three-day trip to Slovakia could turn into a major mess at the border.....coming and going.
Covid Statistical Chatter
Using the regional data from Wiesbaden Aktuell, you can draw several conclusions on Covid-19.
Nationwide, since day one....there have been a total of 233k total positive cases of the Coronavirus (83-million population).
Presently, 206k are considered well.
Total deaths, 9,272 (presently).
The infection rate? This is what bothers the virus experts the most....they'd prefer for it to be less than one infected guy infecting one other individual. Presently, the rate is set at 1.13....meaning for each hundred folks infected....they infect 113 folks.
I live in a town with 285k residents. Presently, the total number of deaths is set at 22, and the total number of active cases set at 78 (since day one, 734 total infected people).
Those who didn't show symptoms or test for issues? Well....that's part of the statistical data which doesn't really exist. There could be 4k people who had one or two symptoms, and never were tested.
If you were playing this 734 total infected folks (out of 285k) in a lottery 'drama'? You'd basically be saying that it might take 50 years before your 'win' comes up.
Why the 'good' numbers? There's often debate over this by the virus experts. Some talk over sanitation habits of society. Some suggest the masks made a difference. Some say social distancing carried a lot of weight. Some like to bring up the vitamin D levels. Some point to lesser travel or vacations.
The problem as you can imagine....there is no clear manner to assign happy news.
I noticed today that via the ARD news (Public TV, Channel One)....a German virus expert had commentary over the weakness that follows the recovery. He figured that around 3-percent of the infected folks had long-term recovery as their big issue. Lack of energy, shortness of breath, fatigue, etc. We aren't talking the over 70-crowd....these are Olympic candidates....two months after the recovery....who are still wondering when they get back to a norm.
It isn't the knowns that worry people....it's the unknowns. And without that feeling, you can't live a normal life.
Nationwide, since day one....there have been a total of 233k total positive cases of the Coronavirus (83-million population).
Presently, 206k are considered well.
Total deaths, 9,272 (presently).
The infection rate? This is what bothers the virus experts the most....they'd prefer for it to be less than one infected guy infecting one other individual. Presently, the rate is set at 1.13....meaning for each hundred folks infected....they infect 113 folks.
I live in a town with 285k residents. Presently, the total number of deaths is set at 22, and the total number of active cases set at 78 (since day one, 734 total infected people).
Those who didn't show symptoms or test for issues? Well....that's part of the statistical data which doesn't really exist. There could be 4k people who had one or two symptoms, and never were tested.
If you were playing this 734 total infected folks (out of 285k) in a lottery 'drama'? You'd basically be saying that it might take 50 years before your 'win' comes up.
Why the 'good' numbers? There's often debate over this by the virus experts. Some talk over sanitation habits of society. Some suggest the masks made a difference. Some say social distancing carried a lot of weight. Some like to bring up the vitamin D levels. Some point to lesser travel or vacations.
The problem as you can imagine....there is no clear manner to assign happy news.
I noticed today that via the ARD news (Public TV, Channel One)....a German virus expert had commentary over the weakness that follows the recovery. He figured that around 3-percent of the infected folks had long-term recovery as their big issue. Lack of energy, shortness of breath, fatigue, etc. We aren't talking the over 70-crowd....these are Olympic candidates....two months after the recovery....who are still wondering when they get back to a norm.
It isn't the knowns that worry people....it's the unknowns. And without that feeling, you can't live a normal life.
On Short-Time
In this Covid-19 era, if you were trying to equate the economy in Germany to the virus, and show the trend....it's next to impossible because of 'short-time' work.
The German concept of avoiding layoffs of personnel? You have a hundred employees in your company. Once in short-time, some of them still work full-time (maybe even just one-percent....maybe fifty-percent). The ones not working the full 160-odd hour month....are still paid out of a government program to roughly 65-percent of their normal month's pay. This is supposed to move up to 80-percent shortly.
So the unemployment rate around Germany is mostly stable.....with a quarter-percent point here and there on the rise.
Who is paying for short-time? Well....you the citizen and consumer.
But short-time has a limit (one-year).
This morning, there's a rumored story via several news sites that the Ministry of Labor will go to an extended short-time program (March 2022, basically 19 more months on top of six months used so far).
They would have to pass it via the Bundestag, and fund it. Presently, I don't think any party would oppose it.
What's this basically saying? Three things:
1. No one with authority in Germany is expecting the economy to return to normal in 2021 (hint, that vaccine business isn't a 'Jesus-vehicle').
2. 2021 is an election year (not just federally, but via several German states), and they don't want mass unemployment to be one of the top campaign issues.
3. Just because you offer short-time....doesn't mean that layoffs won't occur. So offering an extension on short-time may not be a big positive. In the case of Lufthansa, their manpower cuts will probably occur....even if short-time goes to March of 2022.
The one curious aspect of this extension is that you have a fair percentage of Germans who might only be working forty hours a month, with their normal pay limited to 80-percent of the base pay. Basically, they are getting a 20-percent pay-cut, and this has been the norm for six months already. Can they go another 19 months? I have my doubts.
The big question left? If you had people working for you in the marginal sense....maybe only forty hours a month, for almost two years.....what happens when normalcy finally arrives? Could they 'force' themselves to go and work for 160-hour month? Would drinking problems start to be an issue over the next year, with so much free time?
Short-time makes sense, but no one has ever tested it to this extent.
The German concept of avoiding layoffs of personnel? You have a hundred employees in your company. Once in short-time, some of them still work full-time (maybe even just one-percent....maybe fifty-percent). The ones not working the full 160-odd hour month....are still paid out of a government program to roughly 65-percent of their normal month's pay. This is supposed to move up to 80-percent shortly.
So the unemployment rate around Germany is mostly stable.....with a quarter-percent point here and there on the rise.
Who is paying for short-time? Well....you the citizen and consumer.
But short-time has a limit (one-year).
This morning, there's a rumored story via several news sites that the Ministry of Labor will go to an extended short-time program (March 2022, basically 19 more months on top of six months used so far).
They would have to pass it via the Bundestag, and fund it. Presently, I don't think any party would oppose it.
What's this basically saying? Three things:
1. No one with authority in Germany is expecting the economy to return to normal in 2021 (hint, that vaccine business isn't a 'Jesus-vehicle').
2. 2021 is an election year (not just federally, but via several German states), and they don't want mass unemployment to be one of the top campaign issues.
3. Just because you offer short-time....doesn't mean that layoffs won't occur. So offering an extension on short-time may not be a big positive. In the case of Lufthansa, their manpower cuts will probably occur....even if short-time goes to March of 2022.
The one curious aspect of this extension is that you have a fair percentage of Germans who might only be working forty hours a month, with their normal pay limited to 80-percent of the base pay. Basically, they are getting a 20-percent pay-cut, and this has been the norm for six months already. Can they go another 19 months? I have my doubts.
The big question left? If you had people working for you in the marginal sense....maybe only forty hours a month, for almost two years.....what happens when normalcy finally arrives? Could they 'force' themselves to go and work for 160-hour month? Would drinking problems start to be an issue over the next year, with so much free time?
Short-time makes sense, but no one has ever tested it to this extent.
Saturday, August 22, 2020
Talking Wind Energy
Back in the spring of 2000, the German political system built something called the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG (German: Emeueruerbare-Energien-Gesetz)).
The EEG was a device to auction and sell energy....manufactured by renewable sources....thus making profit for the risk-takers of renewable energy.
In simple terms, you built wind-generators.....sold the power, and made a profit.
Every couple of years....it was modified. The political folks were happy....the environmentalists were happy, and the risk-takers for wind generators were happy.
Six years ago.....the Chancellor's crowd made a decision to modify the EEG....basically creating a dead-end eventually....for the wind risk-takers.
N-TV brought up this topic today. There's some folks discussing the impact.
You see....when you put up a generator, it has a life-cycle, and then it gets taken down. Once down.....it doesn't mean you have one automatically go up. So presently, more are being taken down, than being put up.
You can do the math and figure over the next decade, unless something occurs to correct this problem.....the renewable energy numbers will be crap, and the politicians will be in deep trouble.
Fixing this? You'd have to go and create a method where the risk-takers will get more money, either via the consumers, or the government.
Happening in 2020 or 2021? Kinda doubtful at this point. There is a election in 2021 but jobs are the number one issue.
If the trend continues on for the next five years? At some point, some guy will add the numbers up and project by 2030.....black-outs will be common unless you build alternate power sources, or go back to the wind-generator solution.
All of this having a cost on the German consumer? Yep....they may not realize it.....but renewable power has a cost issue.
The EEG was a device to auction and sell energy....manufactured by renewable sources....thus making profit for the risk-takers of renewable energy.
In simple terms, you built wind-generators.....sold the power, and made a profit.
Every couple of years....it was modified. The political folks were happy....the environmentalists were happy, and the risk-takers for wind generators were happy.
Six years ago.....the Chancellor's crowd made a decision to modify the EEG....basically creating a dead-end eventually....for the wind risk-takers.
N-TV brought up this topic today. There's some folks discussing the impact.
You see....when you put up a generator, it has a life-cycle, and then it gets taken down. Once down.....it doesn't mean you have one automatically go up. So presently, more are being taken down, than being put up.
You can do the math and figure over the next decade, unless something occurs to correct this problem.....the renewable energy numbers will be crap, and the politicians will be in deep trouble.
Fixing this? You'd have to go and create a method where the risk-takers will get more money, either via the consumers, or the government.
Happening in 2020 or 2021? Kinda doubtful at this point. There is a election in 2021 but jobs are the number one issue.
If the trend continues on for the next five years? At some point, some guy will add the numbers up and project by 2030.....black-outs will be common unless you build alternate power sources, or go back to the wind-generator solution.
All of this having a cost on the German consumer? Yep....they may not realize it.....but renewable power has a cost issue.
Germany and Covid-19 Chatter
1. This morning, if you watch N-TV news (commercial news network in Germany), the hype is that the daily infection rate has hit 2k.....highest number (per day) over the past four months. It worries the politicians greatly, and drags up the new ban rule talk. Part of the problem relates to schools reopening, and part goes to vacations to hot-zones.
2. Brussels got put yesterday on the 'hot-zone' list. If you fly or drive into the city, and return to Germany....you need to be tested.
3. Cities are admitting now that the data system for the traveler tests....has marginally worked, and they need the IT people to 'dream-up' a simplified system.
The obligation for you, after the trip, to test either at the airport facilities, or your local district testing office? Folks have awoken in the past couple of days to admit that there's too many layers of info, and they can't possibly go back to track down these hundred or thousand folks who simply skipped the testing requirement.
4. If you knowingly violate the quarantine paperwork after testing positive for Covid-19? A lot of talk going on that the 25k Euro fine business will be pushed hard against these 'bad-boys'. Just the act of you walking two blocks to a grocery to buy fruit....could get you fined.
2. Brussels got put yesterday on the 'hot-zone' list. If you fly or drive into the city, and return to Germany....you need to be tested.
3. Cities are admitting now that the data system for the traveler tests....has marginally worked, and they need the IT people to 'dream-up' a simplified system.
The obligation for you, after the trip, to test either at the airport facilities, or your local district testing office? Folks have awoken in the past couple of days to admit that there's too many layers of info, and they can't possibly go back to track down these hundred or thousand folks who simply skipped the testing requirement.
4. If you knowingly violate the quarantine paperwork after testing positive for Covid-19? A lot of talk going on that the 25k Euro fine business will be pushed hard against these 'bad-boys'. Just the act of you walking two blocks to a grocery to buy fruit....could get you fined.
The Worry Over Mass Transit
We are probably three to four weeks away from fall-weather, and the German authorities are now a bit worried over what will happen to mass transit, with the Covid-19 virus around.
Focus discussed the whole matter indepth, and its worth a read.
There is this belief (whether valid or not) that for the past six months, people found alternate methods instead of using buses and subways/trains. But as the weather changes...the experts believe that the consumers will return to mass transit, and the numbers for infection will bounce up (more people riding in tight spaces).
The mask business saving us all?
Well, the authorities don't have what you'd call as a policy for mass transit (Germany-wide). The mask-rule is basically the final word....you don't ride mass transit without it.
Bringing the ban rule back to force companies to allow employees more time at home? Basically, that's the key thing which might occur over the next month. My wife (German) had for two months a flexible home office routine....work one week at home....one week at the office, and then repeat.
Focus discussed the whole matter indepth, and its worth a read.
There is this belief (whether valid or not) that for the past six months, people found alternate methods instead of using buses and subways/trains. But as the weather changes...the experts believe that the consumers will return to mass transit, and the numbers for infection will bounce up (more people riding in tight spaces).
The mask business saving us all?
Well, the authorities don't have what you'd call as a policy for mass transit (Germany-wide). The mask-rule is basically the final word....you don't ride mass transit without it.
Bringing the ban rule back to force companies to allow employees more time at home? Basically, that's the key thing which might occur over the next month. My wife (German) had for two months a flexible home office routine....work one week at home....one week at the office, and then repeat.
Friday, August 21, 2020
New Ban Rules for Offenbach
With numbers going up on infections....the eastend of Frankfurt (Offenbach)....made up a new list of bans.
1. Maximum of a group of five (at some bar, at your backyard bar-b-q, or on some picnic table.).
2. Open-air events? Maximum of 100 folks, until 3 Sep.
3. Wedding ceremonies? Limit of 50 people.
4. Curfew starts immediately, for Saturday evening.....midnight...for pubs, restaurants, and bars.
5. PE for schools? No, at least til the end of the month.
6. Pools? Open for a maximum of 100 people.
7. If you get the slip for quarantine....you need to take it serious. More audits will occur with the police, and if you fail to present yourself at the house.....500 to 10k Euro.
More to come? If the infection rate doesn't drop in the next two weeks....I'd go and expect more.
The tough part of this? Curfew at bars in the area. I'd expect a lot of guys to just give up on Offenbach, and drive into Frankfurt or Darmstadt.
Oh, and by the way they described the fine business....they hinted that 500 Euro wasn't really the starting point.....that you could play this game out and find yourself quickly in a 1k to 2k type situation.
I would anticipate more cities going to this rough deal over the next month.
1. Maximum of a group of five (at some bar, at your backyard bar-b-q, or on some picnic table.).
2. Open-air events? Maximum of 100 folks, until 3 Sep.
3. Wedding ceremonies? Limit of 50 people.
4. Curfew starts immediately, for Saturday evening.....midnight...for pubs, restaurants, and bars.
5. PE for schools? No, at least til the end of the month.
6. Pools? Open for a maximum of 100 people.
7. If you get the slip for quarantine....you need to take it serious. More audits will occur with the police, and if you fail to present yourself at the house.....500 to 10k Euro.
More to come? If the infection rate doesn't drop in the next two weeks....I'd go and expect more.
The tough part of this? Curfew at bars in the area. I'd expect a lot of guys to just give up on Offenbach, and drive into Frankfurt or Darmstadt.
Oh, and by the way they described the fine business....they hinted that 500 Euro wasn't really the starting point.....that you could play this game out and find yourself quickly in a 1k to 2k type situation.
I would anticipate more cities going to this rough deal over the next month.
Thursday, August 20, 2020
Covid-19 Party
Here in the Hessen region, they had a wedding party over the weekend....over in Gross Gerau. Our public TV folks (HR) did a complete update on the party results.
The end-result? Sixteen folks testing positive for Covid-19, with around 160 people sitting in some type of quarantine.
Local authorities admit some of the testing results are still unknown at this point.
Even the family members of the bride and groom are reportedly in the affected group.
Part of this story revolves around the wedding 'party'. Because of state rules that you can't exceed 250 guests at a function.....they went to the alternate plan of having two parties (yes, one party with 100 guests on one day, and another party the next day with other 200 guests). Legal of course, but it simply helped to launch the Coronavirus a bit more.
Drawing attention for more lock-down rules? It'll at least force the discussion.
The end-result? Sixteen folks testing positive for Covid-19, with around 160 people sitting in some type of quarantine.
Local authorities admit some of the testing results are still unknown at this point.
Even the family members of the bride and groom are reportedly in the affected group.
Part of this story revolves around the wedding 'party'. Because of state rules that you can't exceed 250 guests at a function.....they went to the alternate plan of having two parties (yes, one party with 100 guests on one day, and another party the next day with other 200 guests). Legal of course, but it simply helped to launch the Coronavirus a bit more.
Drawing attention for more lock-down rules? It'll at least force the discussion.
Greta and Chancellor Meeting
Before flying off to France yesterday, Chancellor Merkel agreed to a short meeting with the Fridays-for-the-Future crowd....which included not only the German representative (Luisa Neubauer), but the Beglian representative (De Wever), and of course....Greta Thunberg.
It was one of those face-to-face moments....the 'kids' got across their point, and the Chancellor simply played the 'listener'.
Greta emphasized that saving the Earth was top priority.
Basically, for imagery purposes.....everyone got their 'points', and sixty seconds of public evening news 'chat' (to include the Chancellor).
Here's the thing, with Covid-19 on the plate, and the economy going 'south'....the Fridays-for-the-Future kids have zero attention of the public, and it's been that way for six months. Unless something changes over the next six months, I'd say the kid-revolution is over. With jobs and the economy as a major part of the 2021 election period....I don't see the Future kids being relative.
As for the imagery of the encounter with Merkel and Greta? It's hard to imagine the Chancellor sitting there and gleefully getting some lecture from a kid.
It was one of those face-to-face moments....the 'kids' got across their point, and the Chancellor simply played the 'listener'.
Greta emphasized that saving the Earth was top priority.
Basically, for imagery purposes.....everyone got their 'points', and sixty seconds of public evening news 'chat' (to include the Chancellor).
Here's the thing, with Covid-19 on the plate, and the economy going 'south'....the Fridays-for-the-Future kids have zero attention of the public, and it's been that way for six months. Unless something changes over the next six months, I'd say the kid-revolution is over. With jobs and the economy as a major part of the 2021 election period....I don't see the Future kids being relative.
As for the imagery of the encounter with Merkel and Greta? It's hard to imagine the Chancellor sitting there and gleefully getting some lecture from a kid.
Covid Story
School started this week in the Hessen region (my town of Wiesbaden).
Today, the local school district reported to the public that two schools have Covid-19 issues.....one being a 5th grade group at one school, and a 6th grade group at another school.
Actions taken? Each class and the teacher are sent off on a 14-day quarantine.
Affecting the parents? Well....they'd have to supervise the kid at home, and they'd probably go and ask for a Covid-19 test.
The issue here, if you think about it.....kid #1 starts this problem in the class of twenty. A month from now.....another kid in the group has the problem, with the quarantine repeating. By summer of next year, you could have six to eight weeks of down-time or quarantine time. On the positive side, at least it's not the entire school for quarantine.
Today, the local school district reported to the public that two schools have Covid-19 issues.....one being a 5th grade group at one school, and a 6th grade group at another school.
Actions taken? Each class and the teacher are sent off on a 14-day quarantine.
Affecting the parents? Well....they'd have to supervise the kid at home, and they'd probably go and ask for a Covid-19 test.
The issue here, if you think about it.....kid #1 starts this problem in the class of twenty. A month from now.....another kid in the group has the problem, with the quarantine repeating. By summer of next year, you could have six to eight weeks of down-time or quarantine time. On the positive side, at least it's not the entire school for quarantine.
Updating the Berlin 'Terror' Attack
I essayed the bulk of the story yesterday....basically a migrant guy (from Iraq) who is generally judged by peers (long before yesterday) as a 'nutcase'.
So, some relative facts to the case (from Focus):
1. Once cornered on the autobahn (after injuring six folks).....he pulls out a metal case of some type and yells at the police approaching that it's a 'bomb'. For whatever reason, the initial cop on the scene is Arabic, and seems to quickly assessed 'no, it's not a bomb', and took the guy down. In the moments that the guy put the case on top of the car.....he put out a prayer rug and started a prayer there on the autobahn.
2. Originally, the guy made his way in the summer of 2015 to Finland. No reason given for that selection. He applied for asylum....stays there for about six to twelve months....then relocates to Germany. No indication that the Finns granted asylum.
Failed asylum application in Germany? Yes....although nothing is discussed over this, or why he remained in Germany.
So, some relative facts to the case (from Focus):
1. Once cornered on the autobahn (after injuring six folks).....he pulls out a metal case of some type and yells at the police approaching that it's a 'bomb'. For whatever reason, the initial cop on the scene is Arabic, and seems to quickly assessed 'no, it's not a bomb', and took the guy down. In the moments that the guy put the case on top of the car.....he put out a prayer rug and started a prayer there on the autobahn.
2. Originally, the guy made his way in the summer of 2015 to Finland. No reason given for that selection. He applied for asylum....stays there for about six to twelve months....then relocates to Germany. No indication that the Finns granted asylum.
Failed asylum application in Germany? Yes....although nothing is discussed over this, or why he remained in Germany.
The App Story
So two months into the Corona App period.....there's been this one unsettling problem to come out of using it.
The way it works.....you download the App, and it 'measures' closeness to people (who also have the App on their smart-phone)....and if that guy comes up with a positive test, then people who were near them over the past couple of days....will get an 'alert'.
What the alert means? It means ONLY that you were within distance of a positive-tested Corona person.
It basically says....your risk went from 'zero' to 'low'. For an American, this would beg the question....if zero is zero....what exactly is low (one-percent, thirty-percent, fifty-percent)? The App guy would just grin and admit low could be .01-percent....meaning you had a better chance of catching a cold off a toilet-seat at the Frankfurt Bahnhof public toilets, or winning forty Euro via the Friday night lotto drawing.
ARD (public TV, Channel One) did a decent explanation of this minor issue.
The obvious next step after you get the text message? Well.....you'd read this on your phone screen....get hyped up and worried, and immediately call your doctor in a panic.
The developers of the App built a simple system, and were smart enough to say 'low-risk', which means maybe you were next to a person on the bus, or on the train two days ago, and they are positive now.
Is there some statistical data being collected here? No one says much, but I would imagine that if you had a thousand 'low-risk' messages go out to 3k consumers.....the next question would be....do the 3k consumers then report to a test facility, and out of that group.....what percentage will have Covid-19? One-percent? Ten-percent? Fifty-percent? Unknown.
But from this same scenario....of the 3k consumers alerted.....what percentage will NOT go for a test? Ten-percent? Thirty-percent? From German men, it wouldn't surprise me if one-third of the German men over forty years old got the 'low-risk' text message, and did absolutely nothing.
Lets also admit one thing, which ARD brought up in this discussion....Bluetooth technology has developed to some degree, but its not exactly great at measurement situations (like you sitting in one bus seat, and the other person sitting one meter away.....the signal doesn't work perfect because of the seat placement/material). Maybe in ten years, Bluetooth will be replaced by a better technology and corrects some of these weaknesses.
So if you are sitting there and getting the 'low-risk' message....don't freak out. Gulp down a shot or two of good German liquor, call the doctor and just hint that maybe you need a test.
Here's the sad part of the story.....because of the fair number of people now with the App, and infections increasing.....you might be getting this 'low-risk' message every other month, and the stress of the test (waiting for the results) just makes matters worse.
The way it works.....you download the App, and it 'measures' closeness to people (who also have the App on their smart-phone)....and if that guy comes up with a positive test, then people who were near them over the past couple of days....will get an 'alert'.
What the alert means? It means ONLY that you were within distance of a positive-tested Corona person.
It basically says....your risk went from 'zero' to 'low'. For an American, this would beg the question....if zero is zero....what exactly is low (one-percent, thirty-percent, fifty-percent)? The App guy would just grin and admit low could be .01-percent....meaning you had a better chance of catching a cold off a toilet-seat at the Frankfurt Bahnhof public toilets, or winning forty Euro via the Friday night lotto drawing.
ARD (public TV, Channel One) did a decent explanation of this minor issue.
The obvious next step after you get the text message? Well.....you'd read this on your phone screen....get hyped up and worried, and immediately call your doctor in a panic.
The developers of the App built a simple system, and were smart enough to say 'low-risk', which means maybe you were next to a person on the bus, or on the train two days ago, and they are positive now.
Is there some statistical data being collected here? No one says much, but I would imagine that if you had a thousand 'low-risk' messages go out to 3k consumers.....the next question would be....do the 3k consumers then report to a test facility, and out of that group.....what percentage will have Covid-19? One-percent? Ten-percent? Fifty-percent? Unknown.
But from this same scenario....of the 3k consumers alerted.....what percentage will NOT go for a test? Ten-percent? Thirty-percent? From German men, it wouldn't surprise me if one-third of the German men over forty years old got the 'low-risk' text message, and did absolutely nothing.
Lets also admit one thing, which ARD brought up in this discussion....Bluetooth technology has developed to some degree, but its not exactly great at measurement situations (like you sitting in one bus seat, and the other person sitting one meter away.....the signal doesn't work perfect because of the seat placement/material). Maybe in ten years, Bluetooth will be replaced by a better technology and corrects some of these weaknesses.
So if you are sitting there and getting the 'low-risk' message....don't freak out. Gulp down a shot or two of good German liquor, call the doctor and just hint that maybe you need a test.
Here's the sad part of the story.....because of the fair number of people now with the App, and infections increasing.....you might be getting this 'low-risk' message every other month, and the stress of the test (waiting for the results) just makes matters worse.
Germany and the Basic Income Experiment
Basically, four facts here:
1. A 3-year experiment starts in Germany over the idea of Basic Income.
2. 120 Germans will receive 1,000 Euro a month....free.
3. A second group is part of the test.....they will NOT be getting any extra income. It would appear that they are the measurement 'stick' for the 120 folks.
4. It is NOT being funded by the government. I know....this is a shocker. It's a privately funded test. Donations carry the whole 3-year experiment.
So it doesn't matter if you work or not.
Who is conducting this? The German Institute for Economic Research.
What happens here, at the conclusion of the three years? They produce a report. I will take a guess that three things will be said:
1. Money doesn't buy happiness or success.
2. It probably would help if financial or economic 'coaching' was part of the Basic Income business.
3. A fair number of the 120 Germans didn't have a plan on day one, or day sixty, or day five-hundred.....of how to handle the short-term gain.
This is the basic problem of Basic Income.....it quickly would become a welfare program replacement, with no real change except in the name itself. If you offered monthly sessions on handling your income, your lifestyle, or your purchases....you'd get smart and this would lead onto more success in life. But the chief supporters of this concept never grasp that part of the problem.
1. A 3-year experiment starts in Germany over the idea of Basic Income.
2. 120 Germans will receive 1,000 Euro a month....free.
3. A second group is part of the test.....they will NOT be getting any extra income. It would appear that they are the measurement 'stick' for the 120 folks.
4. It is NOT being funded by the government. I know....this is a shocker. It's a privately funded test. Donations carry the whole 3-year experiment.
So it doesn't matter if you work or not.
Who is conducting this? The German Institute for Economic Research.
What happens here, at the conclusion of the three years? They produce a report. I will take a guess that three things will be said:
1. Money doesn't buy happiness or success.
2. It probably would help if financial or economic 'coaching' was part of the Basic Income business.
3. A fair number of the 120 Germans didn't have a plan on day one, or day sixty, or day five-hundred.....of how to handle the short-term gain.
This is the basic problem of Basic Income.....it quickly would become a welfare program replacement, with no real change except in the name itself. If you offered monthly sessions on handling your income, your lifestyle, or your purchases....you'd get smart and this would lead onto more success in life. But the chief supporters of this concept never grasp that part of the problem.
Wednesday, August 19, 2020
Terror 'Attack'?
So I'll lay out the eight basic facts to this terror attack in the Berlin area....reported today by ARD news (public TV, Channel One):
1. This was a 30-year old Iraq guy holding a temp German visa.....having failed the application process, he was supposed to return to Iraq. In country, since 2016.
2. His initial attack was upon two Germans on motorcycles (hitting them with his vehicle), and later hitting an Opel car. All total....six individuals hurt....three of them badly.
3. When finally stopped by the police....he put some type of metal box on the roof of the car, and hinted in some way of it being a 'bomb'. Police later confirmed....no, it wasn't a bomb.
4. The guy did utter 'Allah Akbar', and witnesses did hear the statement.
5. He was NOT under the German watch list.
6. The German police have several records on the guy...mostly for assault. It does NOT appear that he has done any real jail-time for his problems in the past.
7. Charges? If you look at local comments from Berlin....they suggest he will be up for attempted murder. These charges, usually with just one count.....would be a sentence between one and ten years. Multiple counts? Unknown.
8. Finally....if you look at the police commentary, multiple local sources, and journalists who've talked to folks who knew him.....most classify the guy as a 'bit crazy' (using my interpretation).
Based on all of this.....it'll be six months before a court hearing occurs, and several examinations on his mental condition. I don't think the judge will handle the attempted assault/murder case, and instead.....just lock the guy up permanently.
The jihad angle to this? Mostly non-existent. If you got a nutcase who gets all hyped up....he's still a nutcase no matter how you tell this story.
If anything negative.....this will draw attention back to the idea of failed applicants being quickly moved out of Germany, and back to their original site.
Bottom line? I don't think I'd call it a terror attack.....it was just another nutcase on the loose.
1. This was a 30-year old Iraq guy holding a temp German visa.....having failed the application process, he was supposed to return to Iraq. In country, since 2016.
2. His initial attack was upon two Germans on motorcycles (hitting them with his vehicle), and later hitting an Opel car. All total....six individuals hurt....three of them badly.
3. When finally stopped by the police....he put some type of metal box on the roof of the car, and hinted in some way of it being a 'bomb'. Police later confirmed....no, it wasn't a bomb.
4. The guy did utter 'Allah Akbar', and witnesses did hear the statement.
5. He was NOT under the German watch list.
6. The German police have several records on the guy...mostly for assault. It does NOT appear that he has done any real jail-time for his problems in the past.
7. Charges? If you look at local comments from Berlin....they suggest he will be up for attempted murder. These charges, usually with just one count.....would be a sentence between one and ten years. Multiple counts? Unknown.
8. Finally....if you look at the police commentary, multiple local sources, and journalists who've talked to folks who knew him.....most classify the guy as a 'bit crazy' (using my interpretation).
Based on all of this.....it'll be six months before a court hearing occurs, and several examinations on his mental condition. I don't think the judge will handle the attempted assault/murder case, and instead.....just lock the guy up permanently.
The jihad angle to this? Mostly non-existent. If you got a nutcase who gets all hyped up....he's still a nutcase no matter how you tell this story.
If anything negative.....this will draw attention back to the idea of failed applicants being quickly moved out of Germany, and back to their original site.
Bottom line? I don't think I'd call it a terror attack.....it was just another nutcase on the loose.
Stress of the Mask Business
Down in Speyer (about an hour south of Frankfurt)....a 61-year-old German guy had gone to the grocery.
No mask.
He enters the store and is confronted by the grocery manager. He's already shopped and gotten his goods. The confrontation gets the guy ballistic, and he finally dumps the goods at the feet of the manager.
Then the old guy walks out....gets into his car....reeves up the engine, and off he goes straight ahead (out of the parking lot)....into the adjacent farmer's field.
Based on the picture (reported by SWR)....I'd say he got about 100 meters into the field before traction 'stopped'.
Cops called? Yep.
The car required a wrecker to dig it out. Ticket? Yep.
Figure around 20k Euro of damage to the car, and a ticket which requires a judge to have a face-to-face meeting. My guess is that a mandatory doctor examination, and some notation of Corona-stress being a problem. I'm just guessing here, but I seriously doubt that he gets the license back in 2020, and it'll be a hassle to show 'responsibility' now.
It's simply a sign that the general public is losing patience with the whole mask business. The manager probably handled this as well as one can....but its adding frustration almost every single week.
No mask.
He enters the store and is confronted by the grocery manager. He's already shopped and gotten his goods. The confrontation gets the guy ballistic, and he finally dumps the goods at the feet of the manager.
Then the old guy walks out....gets into his car....reeves up the engine, and off he goes straight ahead (out of the parking lot)....into the adjacent farmer's field.
Based on the picture (reported by SWR)....I'd say he got about 100 meters into the field before traction 'stopped'.
Cops called? Yep.
The car required a wrecker to dig it out. Ticket? Yep.
Figure around 20k Euro of damage to the car, and a ticket which requires a judge to have a face-to-face meeting. My guess is that a mandatory doctor examination, and some notation of Corona-stress being a problem. I'm just guessing here, but I seriously doubt that he gets the license back in 2020, and it'll be a hassle to show 'responsibility' now.
It's simply a sign that the general public is losing patience with the whole mask business. The manager probably handled this as well as one can....but its adding frustration almost every single week.
Rosemontag/Carnival in Jeopardy?
The odds that Carnival is going to be cancelled (starting on 11-11-2020 and going 3 Feb 2021)?
The Health Minister (Spahn) made it clear yesterday....unless something happens, cancellation of the events will occur.
Lower Saxony reaction? Via NDR, the authorities made a comment today that they are working on alternate plans to allow 'something' to occur.
If you go around a dozen northern German cities (Mainz included)....which have major festivities and hundreds of thousands of people are involved in the celebration.
SWR did a report on the Mainz area, where planning efforts still continue. But no one can say how exactly it'll work, or if they will allow any large crowds to gather.
The Health Minister (Spahn) made it clear yesterday....unless something happens, cancellation of the events will occur.
Lower Saxony reaction? Via NDR, the authorities made a comment today that they are working on alternate plans to allow 'something' to occur.
If you go around a dozen northern German cities (Mainz included)....which have major festivities and hundreds of thousands of people are involved in the celebration.
SWR did a report on the Mainz area, where planning efforts still continue. But no one can say how exactly it'll work, or if they will allow any large crowds to gather.
Talking Bankruptcies
Covid-19 has numerous implications for the economic stability of Germany. If you follow NDR news from NW Germany (public network)....the Economics Minister for Lower Saxony says between now and the end of the year.....5,000 business bankruptcies will occur.
He tried to sound optimistic but admitted that while they will bring in funds and management to save some of these....the vast number are beyond saving. The bulk of those affected? Pubs, restaurants, bars, and entertainment-fronts.
That's one single state....of the sixteen.
Those thinking the worst has already come and in front of us now? Well....NO, the worst will be in the first quarter of 2021, with unemployment rates spiraling upward for the first six months of 2021.
More money required from the federal govenrnment? Yes, without any doubt.
He tried to sound optimistic but admitted that while they will bring in funds and management to save some of these....the vast number are beyond saving. The bulk of those affected? Pubs, restaurants, bars, and entertainment-fronts.
That's one single state....of the sixteen.
Those thinking the worst has already come and in front of us now? Well....NO, the worst will be in the first quarter of 2021, with unemployment rates spiraling upward for the first six months of 2021.
More money required from the federal govenrnment? Yes, without any doubt.
Police Troubles
In the past week, a couple of public videos have come up (from Frankfurt, Hamburg and Dusseldorf)....showing the German police in situations similar to what happened to Minneapolis police. ARD has done a decent reporting of the episodes and it's worth a read.
In the Frankfurt situation....the 'kid' was kicked while held on the ground (by the policeman). In that case, if you follow what local news is saying and the commentary of the Hessen Interior Minister....there's going to be an investigation and I would suggest that policeman probably will be looking for new employment in six months.
In the Hamburg episode....the police are still in some form of denial over the force used.
All of this is going to trigger public discussion over police use of force, and when it is necessary. If individuals cooperated upon a detention.....none of this would be required, so it also brings up non-cooperation, and refusal by individuals to be cooperative.
In the Frankfurt situation....the 'kid' was kicked while held on the ground (by the policeman). In that case, if you follow what local news is saying and the commentary of the Hessen Interior Minister....there's going to be an investigation and I would suggest that policeman probably will be looking for new employment in six months.
In the Hamburg episode....the police are still in some form of denial over the force used.
All of this is going to trigger public discussion over police use of force, and when it is necessary. If individuals cooperated upon a detention.....none of this would be required, so it also brings up non-cooperation, and refusal by individuals to be cooperative.
German Airports in Corona-Failure Status?
N-TV did a update today and laid out the issues for several German regional airports (Hahn, Kassel-Calden, Niederrhein, Paderborn, Rostock, Erfurt-Weimar and Saarbrücken among the dozen mentioned).
These are all airports that were marginally surviving before Covid-19 came along, and now? They are probably not going to survive this new era.
There was a EU directive handed out a couple of years ago....'gift-money' from the states was going to come to an end (2024 was the last point that you could get extra money from the federal or state governments to carry the regional airport budgets. So Covid-19 just speeded up the process.
Bankruptcy? I would imagine by spring of 2021....the paperwork will start to be assembled and by the end of 2021....at least two or three of these airports will shut down and be attempted as real estate sales. Some of these (Kassel-Calden for example)....probably has potential for commercial re-use, and can be bought on the cheap end.
These are all airports that were marginally surviving before Covid-19 came along, and now? They are probably not going to survive this new era.
There was a EU directive handed out a couple of years ago....'gift-money' from the states was going to come to an end (2024 was the last point that you could get extra money from the federal or state governments to carry the regional airport budgets. So Covid-19 just speeded up the process.
Bankruptcy? I would imagine by spring of 2021....the paperwork will start to be assembled and by the end of 2021....at least two or three of these airports will shut down and be attempted as real estate sales. Some of these (Kassel-Calden for example)....probably has potential for commercial re-use, and can be bought on the cheap end.
Covid-19 Chatter
N-TV (commercial news in Germany) did a fairly long and extensive report on Covid-19 details.....six months into the crisis period....looking more so at recent developments.
So here is the shocker...only six Germans out of every hundred infected....required hospitalization.
The bulk of Germans did their home-quarantine situation, and passed through completely.
At the very beginning of the crisis....the German view was that your doctor would review your records after the infection was noted, and if you had secondary issues (asthma, COPD, or diabetes for example)....that was the entry point for you into a hospital situation.
The other shocker from their review? For all deceased Covid-19 folks.....the average age was 81 years old. For people 70 and over, who were infected....the death rate was 85 percent.
The discussion over ventilation? It wasn't used that much, primarily because the patients were breathing on their own.
So here is the shocker...only six Germans out of every hundred infected....required hospitalization.
The bulk of Germans did their home-quarantine situation, and passed through completely.
At the very beginning of the crisis....the German view was that your doctor would review your records after the infection was noted, and if you had secondary issues (asthma, COPD, or diabetes for example)....that was the entry point for you into a hospital situation.
The other shocker from their review? For all deceased Covid-19 folks.....the average age was 81 years old. For people 70 and over, who were infected....the death rate was 85 percent.
The discussion over ventilation? It wasn't used that much, primarily because the patients were breathing on their own.
Frankfurt Court Opens Today
I essayed a piece from July of 2019....over the pushing of three people into the path of a arriving ICE train in Frankfurt's main station, with two being able to climb out of the way in time....but the 8-year old kid dying there on the tracks.
The court case finally opens today over the Swiss guy involved. As I suggested last year, the guy probably has serious paranoid schizophrenia issues, and the case developing (in his defense) will be that he's mentally unbalanced.....likely to be a permanent situation in a mental facility.
HR (our regional public TV group) is covering the episode, and reports that experts anticipate the case ending by 29 August.
The court case finally opens today over the Swiss guy involved. As I suggested last year, the guy probably has serious paranoid schizophrenia issues, and the case developing (in his defense) will be that he's mentally unbalanced.....likely to be a permanent situation in a mental facility.
HR (our regional public TV group) is covering the episode, and reports that experts anticipate the case ending by 29 August.
Tuesday, August 18, 2020
Beggar Story
Over the past decade, in most urban cities of Germany.....beggars on the street have doubled and tripled in terms of numbers. To say it's a German problem....no, you see the same signs in Spain, France and Italy.
Even in my metro town of Wiesbaden, on a typical afternoon in an area of 285k residents....you'd come across sixty of them in the downtown area.
It's no longer surprising to be sitting in a cafe or outdoor restaurant on the streets of the city.....then to have some beggar come directly upon the table and flip the sign up....'begging for money' in German.
What was a bit surprising for me....as I sat and sipped upon a beer in the downtown area....that when the beggar came up to the established area of the pub (outdoors)....the German waitress (probably around 22 to 24 years old) came right up and chastised the guy to leave immediately. So he left.
Not just once, but five minutes later he attempted to slip into the cafe area....she went right back at the guy.
The thing is....more and more Germans are having less patience for this type of situation, and kinda wondering.....if they have the visa to be in the country (as a non-German).....shouldn't they be in a language class or job-training situation?
In an average year now, at least before Covid-19 came along.....I probably would get approached at least 200 times a year.
It's the kind of thing that might be accepted in some countries, but it's drawing negative attention in Germany. It makes you wonder how things will be in five years, or if the police get the tasking of moving folks along.
Even in my metro town of Wiesbaden, on a typical afternoon in an area of 285k residents....you'd come across sixty of them in the downtown area.
It's no longer surprising to be sitting in a cafe or outdoor restaurant on the streets of the city.....then to have some beggar come directly upon the table and flip the sign up....'begging for money' in German.
What was a bit surprising for me....as I sat and sipped upon a beer in the downtown area....that when the beggar came up to the established area of the pub (outdoors)....the German waitress (probably around 22 to 24 years old) came right up and chastised the guy to leave immediately. So he left.
Not just once, but five minutes later he attempted to slip into the cafe area....she went right back at the guy.
The thing is....more and more Germans are having less patience for this type of situation, and kinda wondering.....if they have the visa to be in the country (as a non-German).....shouldn't they be in a language class or job-training situation?
In an average year now, at least before Covid-19 came along.....I probably would get approached at least 200 times a year.
It's the kind of thing that might be accepted in some countries, but it's drawing negative attention in Germany. It makes you wonder how things will be in five years, or if the police get the tasking of moving folks along.
Better Party While You Can
This morning via N-TV news....they had a segment talking over commentary by the German Federal Health Minister....Spahn.
Basically, the infection numbers are increasing, and the idea of a second 'shut-down' are being discussed. But, before we get to that....the general idea being discussed....is that you really screw down all drinking and partying in Germany, with more regulations.
This would mean standardized rules (federally mandated) over the location of public and private 'parties', and with additional rules on ventilation.
Being agreeable? Well....the hotels, restaurants, and bars would prefer a few more rules, than a complete and absolute shut-down (like the spring episode). They probably would admit that they can't survive another two months of maximum shut-down.
Where this will lead onto? Secretive and sudden commercial parties announced in wooded areas or city parks....that's my guess.
Let's be honest here and admit this one fact....there's probably about four weeks of summer left, and the fall season will arrive. This regulation chatter will take barely a week, and I'll bet before the conclusion of August....you get a half-page of new and additional rules for drinking establishments.
Basically, the infection numbers are increasing, and the idea of a second 'shut-down' are being discussed. But, before we get to that....the general idea being discussed....is that you really screw down all drinking and partying in Germany, with more regulations.
This would mean standardized rules (federally mandated) over the location of public and private 'parties', and with additional rules on ventilation.
Being agreeable? Well....the hotels, restaurants, and bars would prefer a few more rules, than a complete and absolute shut-down (like the spring episode). They probably would admit that they can't survive another two months of maximum shut-down.
Where this will lead onto? Secretive and sudden commercial parties announced in wooded areas or city parks....that's my guess.
Let's be honest here and admit this one fact....there's probably about four weeks of summer left, and the fall season will arrive. This regulation chatter will take barely a week, and I'll bet before the conclusion of August....you get a half-page of new and additional rules for drinking establishments.
Enforcing Masks
In the Wiesbaden area yesterday (Monday)....the police started a bus-ride situation where they audit everyone onboard for the mask requirement.
If you were wearing a mask covering your mouth, but NOT your nose? They asked for your ID, and wrote out a citation. You will get a invite to a judge and unless you get some sympathy....you will be assessed a 50- Euro fine.
Walking around in stores, I'd suggest that 10-percent of people leave the mask off the nose, to get more air. In the midst of summer heat, and marginal AC onboard the the buses.....you can probably survive twenty minutes before the discomfort becomes a problem.
If you don't want the police audit? Drive your car to the destination, or walk.
If you were wearing a mask covering your mouth, but NOT your nose? They asked for your ID, and wrote out a citation. You will get a invite to a judge and unless you get some sympathy....you will be assessed a 50- Euro fine.
Walking around in stores, I'd suggest that 10-percent of people leave the mask off the nose, to get more air. In the midst of summer heat, and marginal AC onboard the the buses.....you can probably survive twenty minutes before the discomfort becomes a problem.
If you don't want the police audit? Drive your car to the destination, or walk.
Monday, August 17, 2020
Water Discussion
Drought around Germany has been an issue this year, and I would suggest for the past two years.....it's been a regional problem.
So today.....the political folks walked into the 'mess'.
The Environmental Minister (from the SPD Party)....via a commentary by ARD News (public TV)....said that there needs to be a national 'strategy'.
Part of this discussion includes the comment that maybe pools in dry areas....even city pools....would have to shut down.
Another comment made....sprinkling of water on yards and gardens.....might have to be banned.
The basis of the discussion? Well....water is a right (as the politicians see it).
My neighbor went out two years ago and resodded his entire backyard....probably over 2k Euro spent on the project. I'll admit he has the best yard of the entire village. But along with it....he has to water it on various evenings because of the lesser rainfall (true in 2019, and to some degree in 2020). If he couldn't water the grass? Well....it'd be dead like mine.
I'd take a guess around the village....as dry as 2019 and 2020 have been....at least 50-percent of the folks are using a fair amount of water.
If the political folks engaged on this topic and got it hyped up? I would imagine that a fair number of folks would ask stupid questions. If you shut down the three major outdoor public pools in the Wiesbaden area....you'd get a lot of 'heck' over that idea.
So today.....the political folks walked into the 'mess'.
The Environmental Minister (from the SPD Party)....via a commentary by ARD News (public TV)....said that there needs to be a national 'strategy'.
Part of this discussion includes the comment that maybe pools in dry areas....even city pools....would have to shut down.
Another comment made....sprinkling of water on yards and gardens.....might have to be banned.
The basis of the discussion? Well....water is a right (as the politicians see it).
My neighbor went out two years ago and resodded his entire backyard....probably over 2k Euro spent on the project. I'll admit he has the best yard of the entire village. But along with it....he has to water it on various evenings because of the lesser rainfall (true in 2019, and to some degree in 2020). If he couldn't water the grass? Well....it'd be dead like mine.
I'd take a guess around the village....as dry as 2019 and 2020 have been....at least 50-percent of the folks are using a fair amount of water.
If the political folks engaged on this topic and got it hyped up? I would imagine that a fair number of folks would ask stupid questions. If you shut down the three major outdoor public pools in the Wiesbaden area....you'd get a lot of 'heck' over that idea.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)