Russia in Ten Years and Twenty-Five Years

 This is one of those essays I write....looking at the landscape, and 'pace' of things.

For those who weren't aware of it.....the birth-rate for Russia is 1.2 (meaning each woman produces just 1.2 kids for a couple).  Yeah the nation is in decline....probably for the past two decades.  

Part of this can be blamed on the quality of Russian men....some on the cost of living....and some on women having a higher focus on jobs and advancement.

The current population?  144-million....more or less, at least what the government says.  If you ask about this being fraudulent data?  Well...this comes up and some people will speculate this was probably a true number around the 1990s (bumping to a max in the early 1990s to around 148-million).  Some suggest there's a 150,000 loss every year since then.....with the death-rate and exit-rate affecting the true number.  

So with the war in full 'bloom'....what's the loss rate now?  Lets be honest and admit the Ukraine suggestion of 120,000 dead is faked-up.  But lets add the battlefield deaths, desertion numbers (not going back to Russia), the activation of the reservists with guys exiting Russia, and the group of young Russian men who left in the past eight months to avoid Conscription.  My number rests around 1-million total....mostly men, who aren't Russian residents anymore.  

Here's the thing.....in some communities, if you asked....women aren't going to have a real chance of finding some guy for marriage, unless they leave Russia as well.  

As this plays out for Russia in 2032?  If young men continue to exit around age 17 to 20....to avoid the draft, and a lower birth-rate plays out....I'd suggest the Russian population is closer to 130-million by that point.  

How this plays out for Russia at the 2047 point?  I would suggest the numbers now get closer to 125-million level.  

Taking into consideration the production level required....to rebuild the military and continue a high level of 'status'....will the numbers be adequate for Putin and the next guy or two who assumes the job?   No....it's doubtful that their agenda can be maintained with a serious decline in manpower.  

If the Reservists come to a higher degree of death?  You could make the case that by spring of 2023, out of the 300,000....at least 10-percent won't be coming back. If the fear of the draft continues with the war-mix?  Then you could imagine a higher decline in population, with Russian young men seeking asylum in various countries.  

So I come to my final point....to feed the world on the idea that Russia is a super-power and at the level of the US....they can only project this image in a marginal way today, and over the next decade....they will no longer be this super-power.  Intelligence analysts will have to invent a word to assign to Russia because of this decline.

This war, whether it makes sense or not.....is the last great military ride for Russia.  In a decade, they will no longer have the manpower to carry out a task like this.