The Next Sixty Days of the 'War'

 With a lot of Russian conscripts/reservists gathering up in the Belarus region, I would suggest the November 'script' to lead to three things:

1.  I think a gathering of mostly Russian reservists, with some Belarus tanks/APCs in the landscape...will gather within the Ukrainian northern border to Belarus.  Manpower-wise....in a infantry setting.....it'll be in the 300,000 range.  

All of this will be easily seen by US/NATO....in the ten days of preparing for the new invasion.

The objective?  Take Kiev.  

2.  Somewhere between mid-November to the end of November....this plan will start.

How many tanks does Belarus have to 'share'?  The nation maintains that they have four tank brigades, and something in the range of 1,200 tanks (at least they say this number), but some folks indicate that 800 of these tanks are in reserve (meaning that they might not be fully operational).  So the real number might be closer to 400 tanks to 'share'.

I expect Ukraine will go back to anti-tank missiles, and by the 3rd day of this 'invasion'.....more than half of the Belarus tanks will be in a disabled condition.

The 300,000 reservists mostly walking into Ukraine?  It's about 160 km (100 miles).  If they walked in a straight path and along roads.....they could hike to the outer edge of Kiev in three days, but I really don't expect them to have their speed.  Add to it.....it's fall weather, and the roads would be the last place  to open walk.

So I don't see the reservists arriving to the outer 'ring' of Kiev until the 15th day.  

Here's the key problem....logistically, Russia has done a crappy job ever since the war started.  When you talk of fuel, food, ammo, basic materials for a front....I think this whole front will collapse for the most part by the 10th day.  Fewer than a quarter of the invading force will make it.

By the 20th day, I expect the bulk of this northern invasion front to collapse.  You could be talking about 30,000 to 50,000 dead or wounded (frost-bite will be a big deal).....with serious allegations of commanders shooting their own men, and eventually....the reservists shooting their commanders.  

3.  By late December....the northern invasion will be deemed one of the greatest military failures of the past 100 years.  The bulk of the Belarus tanks?  Gone.  

Around Belarus....a lot of public sentiment will be negative....over the loss of several thousand of their young men. 

Blame will finally be dished out, with Shoigu (Russian Defense Minister) given the bulk of the blame.....to be arrested for these failures.

Meanwhile....in the far south of Ukraine (at the other front).....Russian supply lines will dwindle, and open rebellion by December will start to occur as Russian troops refuse orders.

I expect another activation of more Russian reservists by the end of December....in the 500,000 range.  It'll be at this point where the economy of Russia starts to falter starts to fail.  

My general assessment.....the Russian strategy has reached a failed state.