WELT (the newspaper) gave a invitation to Elon Musk to write a essay (short in nature)....to which Elon gave some explanation why he'd support the AfD Party. Naturally this disturbed a lot of Germans and triggered outrage Sunday. I would imagine the Musk-outrage will continue through most of the week. I sat and read through the piece, and will offer five observations:
1. What Musk mostly drills down upon? Germany has had this issue brewing of mass migration and if there isn't a 'limit' (with controls)....German culture ceases to exist.
I would say at present....roughly two-thirds of society agrees with this, but only around 18-to-20 percent of society would vote for AfD's control method. The rest? They lean mostly toward the CDU-CSU and SPD Parties.
If you did look at Merz comments (the CDU-CSU candidate)....over the past couple of months....he's made a number of clear comments that the exit-door is going to open wider and problem-migrants will be sent 'home'.
2. What this anger is about over Musk commentary? AfD was branded by the Merkel-era and the Scholz-era....as far-right. This typically is the brand 'name' you'd associate with the Nazis (even if their 1930s agenda was a mix of right-wing and socialist agendas).
If you make any pro-comment about AfD....by the agenda....you are leaning toward bringing the Nazis back.
And to be honest, there are probably a dozen-odd AfD politicians who hype the Nazi-mentality.
3. This article in WELT? When you go and associate readership with Germans....WELT is more of a intellectual news source. So if you asked me on how many Germans read the Musk commentary....from public data, I'd say in the range of about one-million Germans (out of 84-million).
Yeah, it's a good number but I'm saying around 98-percent of Germans didn't read the article.
Journalists, university students and politicians reading WELT? 100-percent.
Bus drivers, brick-layers, policemen, and nurses reading WELT? Probably less than one-percent.
4. Should people go back to review AfD's history? I would imagine less than 5-percent of Germans remember things.
Back in 1999....Germany went the EU path....to the Euro (dumping the D-Mark). Within five years.....most Germans agreed that some weird escalation of prices for goods had occurred.
Around 2013....a couple of lawyers started a political agenda...'dump-the-Euro' (to return to the D-Mark). This led to the creation of AfD. Surprisingly enough....somewhere in the range of 7-to-10 percent of Germans supported this one agenda party.
Around 2015...with a migration 'surge'....the AfD Party held a meeting, and a 2nd agenda item was tabled....a anti-migration discussion. The three lawyers who started AfD? They said 'no'.....they were voted out of positions of authority. The anti-migration agenda was then adapted. By Monday, journalists and politicians were labeling AfD as the 'Nazis'.
The path then led to 31 December 2015 in Koln....where chaos occurred, with over 1,000 police reports turned in....complaining about wild activities conducted by North African gentlemen. The shift in the German public? I'd say over the first quarter of 2016....about half of the public were now centered on asking questions (they weren't pro-AfD)....but the politicians were now screwed because they couldn't solve problems.
Within a year....a political position by Merkel was chosen....add 10,000 extra new police billets. This was to resolve crime issues, which the public felt the migrants were responsible for the crime surge.
Year by year since then....the traditional parties (CDU, CSU, FDP, SPD, Greens, Linke) have been forced to take positions to limit migration. Even so....the AfD is still able to get a national vote trend of 18-to-20 percent.
5. Did Musk's commentary really shift any Germans? I'm not really sure about that discussion. The more that the public TV folks want to condemn the commentary and talk about it....it might actually convince two or three percent of non-AfD folks to shift their views. If we get to the end of January and AfD is polling near 25-to-27 percent....yes, that would be a shocker.
So, my advice to the politicians and the public news folks? Drop the anti-Musk hype quickly....try to keep total focus of the campaign period strictly on the CDU-CSU and SPD.....and don't over-dramatize any terror acts between now and late Feb.
Footnote: if we reached the election, and AfD had 40-percent of the vote....it's enough to win, but who would partner-up with them? No one. So the 2nd-place winner would have to build the coalition and develop the weakest government in German history. It's one of those scenarios that you really don't want to BS about or even make a joke over.
2 comments:
How would you compare AfD to MAGA? They've compared both groups to NAZI's. So it's anyone they disagree with is a Nazi if you're a leftist or socialist.
AfD has one central core agenda....close migrant entry into Germany, and they usually hint that long-term costs upon the state system for migrants...is not going to happen. After that point, it gets divided up. Probably a quarter of all AfD enthusiasts want all migrants out. Some want some degree of value/production in the mix....admitting that some non-Germans are faithful to the laws, and work in jobs.
AfD fumbles around when talking economic policy, job protection, etc. They generally want the war to end....but side more with Russia than what you'd expect. They question NATO membership....never saying exactly what the alternative agenda would be.
I would agree, in both the US and German cases....serious open-door policy on immigration has triggered tons of problems with consequences. In the German case, drug crime is escalating, with various mafia-groups existing today....that didn't exist before the 1990s.
But added to this discussion....the birth-rate is crap, and some type of acceptance to migration is absolutely necessary. Then you add the terror aspect, which isn't a African, South American, Asian, or Russian theme to migration.
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