This coalition build exercise that the CDU-CSU and SPD Parties are engaged in....have one critical element...in that migration and deportation have to some type of success story over the next year or two.
At the current pace...about ever two-to-three months....there's a knife-assault or a multiple victim situation in Germany....where it leads back to a non-German. The more victims....the more public discussion, and you can't really hide these events.
The one positive? You can generally count on the police/authorities as identifying the person in question having mental 'ailments' or disorders.
At the present pace....if the new coalition does minimally nothing? I'd say by late 2026....AfD and CDU-CSU will each have around 25-percent of the poll numbers.
If I were desiring to prevent this day from arriving? I'd probably go with the strategy in general....no matter who you are (German or non-German)....if you are labeled as potentially-dangerous (in the mental sense)....you go for 90 days to some farm-like situation (with a security fence) and prove you are safe. If you can't prove this over 90 days....you get a longer stay.
Failure to resolve this mess....the 2029 election gets to being fairly heated....with the possibility that AfD might win, but be unable to form a coalition with anyone. In this scenario....the CDU-CSU is forced (as in 2nd place) to form a rather difficult coalition with probably the SPD AND Green Party. If you want a massive weak government....that's the route to achieving it.
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