Late yesterday, via the Brit Telegraph (newspaper)....a insider DC story came out. Trump's team is considering removing 35,000 US troops from Germany and putting them into Hungary.
BS? A bluff?
That's the thing about the story....you can't tell.
First, the 35,000 number. If you assess all Air Force, Army, Navy and Marines....including EUCOM, the AF Hq's, and the Army Hq's.....then it comes to almost 35,000 within Germany.
Second, would this be more of a signal to Germany and the EU....than anyone else? Well....the 35,000, with services and spending....runs several billion Euro a year through the German economy. It would be missed.
Third....how would such a move occur? Well....it'd take three to five years...minimum. I would expect former Soviet bases (now ghost-towns) to be renovated/rebuilt....figure five to ten billion dollars minimum.
Would all US structures shut down in Germany? I'm of the mind that the new medical facility at Ramstein (replacing Landstuhl) would likely stay, and Ramstein itself might be kept open with just less people.
Leaving US troops in Italy and UK? The Telegraph story leaves that topic out. It'd make sense to take the 21,000 Army troops out of Germany, and the 4,500 troops in Italy....moving them to Hungary.
Sending a signal that the US considers Hungary a major partner in NATO? Yeah, thats a plus-up, and that the US is not exiting NATO.
The condition of the former Soviet bases in Hungary? I went looking at Hajmasker Castle (the old Soviet headquarters base).....it's in fairly crappy condition. I admit it's probably a great location for EUCOM, and maybe a consolidated location for both the Army and Air Force headquarters units. The Veszprem base? Crappy condition, and totally abandoned. Same story for Tokol air base.
Kunmadaras Airbase? It would be a match for the Spangdahlem unit....but it's a major rebuild.
Considering all the infrastructure that they would be leaving....I think both the Army and Air Force would be shaking their heads. There's almost a billion invested into the hotel/BX complex at Ramstein. You walk around Wiesbaden....looking at the various sites....there's probably three to five billion invested over the past twenty years.
Some folks in Germany being politically happy at the Americans leaving? If you are a dedicated voter of the Linke Party, the Green Party and the AfD....yeah....you'd be happy. The SPD voters....mixed-bag...mostly happy at them exiting.
Folks in the rural areas of Bitburg, Kaiserslautern and Baumholder? It would be a massive financial loss to the three communities.
Folks in Wiesbaden? Well....it'd bring up the re-use of the runway area, and some massive battle over preventing it being used. The re-development of Hainerberg 'hill' (housing)? That's likely to be torn down and re-developed as a whole new neighborhood of Wiesbaden....if this were to happen.
This being a Trump-bluff to get to a different landscape? I'm more likely to believe that. Remember, we started this story of 20-odd thousand US troops leaving Europe, period....going back to the US....so a whole lot of things have been re-considered.
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