This week....some type of new effort will occur with the Ukraine and getting a 2nd meeting with Trump for a 'deal'. However, it's also been laid out that the UK (and possibly France) have already signed deals for rare-Earth materials. If true....I don't see what deal is left for the US.
So onto the talk of a EU military structure (being pushed by Macron). This idea is moving fast. So a meeting will occur this week.
Trouble? Well....right away....Turkey will ask if they can enter the EU. 'No' will be the response....so as NATO dissolves....Turkey won't be a player in the EU military structure. Expect issues.
Then the issue of how you finance this, and the response will be....something along the lines of a 3-percent to 3.5-percent of your GDP. France might be able to take this step....along with the UK...for a limited time. Virtually everyone else will shake their heads.
While this talk starts up....the Trump administration will announce 20,000 US troops will be removed over the next 12 months (mostly out of Germany, I assume).
How stable will this EU force be? As each state election occurs....the threat of the dissolving will occur. France, Germany, and the UK in particular.
At some point....von de Leyen will approach Trump and say NATO is dissolved....you need to remove the remaining troops (much in the same time limit as France spoke to in 1966). And at that point....the remaining US troops are given a 12-month period.
What will be funny? Well....the EU will continue to buy natural gas/oil from Russia....helping them to rebuild....while having to find financial ways to build a bigger military.
Hardest hit by the US leaving? No doubt....Kaiserslautern. A billion Euro....gone. And no remarkable way of resolving the 'hole'.
Finally....the Ukraine 250-Billion Euro required....which the US won't finance, and somehow....the EU needs to convince member states to cough up the money, and trust that it won't be misused. Along the way....some folks will ask....when will democratic elections occur in the Ukraine, and they will be told 'soon'.
2 comments:
I guess this is what happens when America becomes Russia's bitch.
Most people watching Germany's unification in the early 1990s....thought that NATO's end was scripted-out (within a decade). Cold War medals were handed out....bunkers throughout Germany were torn down.
As for Ukraine-Russia situation? Three years.....there's a general belief of1-million soldiers and civilians from both sides are dead. The belief of a 'winner'? Long gone. As corrupted as Russia is.....Ukraine is fairly close. Suggesting that US troops be drawn in to support Ukraine, or for that matter....Brit, or German, or French? It doesn't make sense....and it could trigger a more serious reaction (like nukes). Things have to end, and rather than dragging this out....wasting another 300-odd billion....this is path.
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