Last night, ZDF (one of Germany's public TV networks) led off at 8:15 PM with a docu-news piece which went to statistical data, conversations with PhD professors, mayors of significant German cities, and then basically laid out the story that crime associated with migrants is not a big deal. I sat and watched the whole piece, and there were several things which are absolutely factual.
My observations:
1. Statistical data across Germany generally says most categories of crime are 'down' (less in terms of numbers). The curious way that the story is told is that they take mostly all data columns from 2000 to today. There was a peak period around 2013/2014, and dramatic turns after that....at least in most categories of crime.
The other side of this story, which they carefully avoided.....a lot of people who are over the age of fifty.....remember a period of a lot less crime (prior to 1990)....with it not mattering if you were talking West Germany or East Germany (the old DDR). The journalists and political folks avoid those statistical columns or part of the story.
2. You can't really associate most crimes with being either migrant-committed, German-committed, or EU-resident-committed.....unless you catch the guy in the act, or notch some type of 'funny' accent. So you could have forty break-in's of apartments in March within the city of Mainz, and there is NO way of associating it to migrants, Germans or EU'ers.
3. If crime is less.....why hire more police? That's the curious thing....most all political parties jumped into this 'more' police hirings back in 2017, and talked about several thousand additional police to be hired. If the statistics don't support more cops....why hire them?
4. If you go and follow the police 'blotter' info in the local news (I follow it via Wiesbaden, and Mainz)....when you do find break-in individuals/gangs....it's typically Romanian, Bulgarian, or Eastern European type individuals arrested/detained. It's almost never Iraqi, Syrian, Libyran, Moroccan, or African refugees/migrants/immigrants. If you look at the car theft activity, and when they do arrest/detain people.....it's usually Eastern European....NOT refugee crowd. If you go look at drug dealers detained or arrested.....this goes into a blender situation (Africans, Afghans, Turks, and mostly all non-German).
5. These funny firings of pistols during wedding 'convey' situations? Well....that's almost 100-percent all Turks, and the cops usually detain the guy with a court appearance required later.
6. Knifings? Well....it's almost impossible to find data that suggests that German citizens are behind the knifings. Most of this leads back to young Arabic men (you won't find a single report of women in these events). But unlike London, I can't suggest that knifings are on some dramatic increase.
7. Public perception? Whether public TV in Germany wants to admit it or not....there's been this dramatic 'public safety' blitz the past two years on how to secure your home, how to be vigilant with purse or pocketbook in public, and how to avoid being robbed on the street. If I watch HR (my regional Hessen network), there's at least thirty minutes a week which goes into public reminders about protecting your assets. People watch this and perceive that there is a problem (yep, the same network folks telling there is no crime problem).
To wrap up my own observations.....I'm one of those people who don't believe that the Syrians, Afghans, or vast majority of immigrants from 2013....are into some crime episode. Now, on the drug sales side? Yes, some Afghans and North Africans have become dope dealers. And if you look for real crime beyond that....well, it's mostly eastern Europeans (the crime gangs).
Wednesday, June 5, 2019
Cop Story
About a year ago, I essayed a piece and talked over this complaint lodged in Frankfurt about the police, and that a small number of them had been identified to right-wing platforms (social groups).
Well....it's come out now that roughly 15,000 Hessen policemen are under some type of general review.
So the shocker for the authorities? Over the decades, as they recruited and trained people to be cops.....they've now reached a point of realizing that most all cops are generally orientated in some way to be conservative, supportive of the law, and maybe a bit right-wing. Yes, they just don't recruit too many left-wing individuals to be policemen.
One can laugh over this, but there's a serious amount of time being spent to review each cop, their social media profile, and things they might have said. The odds that the majority are in some type of little counseling mess? I would take a guess that more than sixty-percent will have to get counseling and take it mostly as a joke.
The problem is....it's no longer the 1970s, and social media has positioned people to have opinions and to share them. For the cop jobs? No one with a left-leaning tendency is going to go out and sign up for the job of policeman here in Germany. So it's hard to see how this problem resolves itself.
Well....it's come out now that roughly 15,000 Hessen policemen are under some type of general review.
So the shocker for the authorities? Over the decades, as they recruited and trained people to be cops.....they've now reached a point of realizing that most all cops are generally orientated in some way to be conservative, supportive of the law, and maybe a bit right-wing. Yes, they just don't recruit too many left-wing individuals to be policemen.
One can laugh over this, but there's a serious amount of time being spent to review each cop, their social media profile, and things they might have said. The odds that the majority are in some type of little counseling mess? I would take a guess that more than sixty-percent will have to get counseling and take it mostly as a joke.
The problem is....it's no longer the 1970s, and social media has positioned people to have opinions and to share them. For the cop jobs? No one with a left-leaning tendency is going to go out and sign up for the job of policeman here in Germany. So it's hard to see how this problem resolves itself.
Ten Questions Over This New German Political 'Drama'
1. What triggered this new political crisis in Germany?
Well, the results of this EU election (10 days ago) really hyped up the ongoing leadership woes of the SPD Party (junior partner of Merkel's coalition). The leadership decided that the party chief (Nahles) had to be dismissed out of the leadership function. Adding to the issue, we are about a hundred days out from a period of three eastern Germany state elections, and it kinda looks bleak for SPD outcomes.
2. Was Nahles (the SPD Party chief) a place-holder?
This is something that rarely gets brought up. Once they made the decision that Martin Schulz (the SPD Chancellor candidate in 2017's national election) had to be pushed out.....there really wasn't anyone standing there with a 'puffed-up' appearance for the role of party chief. It was just her luck to be standing there and various players in the party figured that a female role model might help.
3. New party chief, new direction?
Well, this is the current idea. In roughly three weeks, the SPD folks will meet and vote up the replacement. The thinking is that he (or she) will state the time is right to leave the coalition, and go hardcore anti-CDU or anti-Merkel.
4. If the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition goes away, then what?
There are three scenarios: (a) Merkel brings in the Greens and FDP Party....talks over their possibility, and a new coalition is created. (b) Merkel goes to something that has never been used in German politics....a minority government. This means that the SPD folks, the Greens, and Linke Party would have a majority of votes and could vote down anything that the CDU does. It's a fairly weak form of government and very likely to trigger an election within six months. (c) Basically call for a national election within ninety days. This isn't a great deal for the SPD because they are ranked at around 16-percent in polling right now.
5. All this drama leads back to Merkel?
Yep, more or less. She has no magic cards to lay out, and frankly....the public has reached a point where they'd like a new Chancellor, but can't find anyone to fit the role. If we go to a minority government, it would mean chaos....week by week, and probably lessen Merkel's legendary status.
6. What's with this SPD dramatic slide?
Back in September 2005, when Merkel came onto the scene as Chancellor.....she did one curious change with the CDU Party. She melted them into the center-point on almost every single topic. Prior to that, the CDU folks were right-of-center.
The SPD Party found themselves looking very much like the CDU Party, and public perception went to the lines of the CDU message and theme being slightly better. The SPD Party couldn't remake themselves without looking far-left.
If you talked to CDU folks.....probably a quarter of them are fed up with Merkel's center-point agenda and want the party to be further to the right.
7. Isn't all of this leading to the Greens being ahead of the SPD?
YES. There's no doubt that the polling is correct, with Greens around 20-percent presently, and likely to rise two points over the next couple of months (especially with the three state elections coming up). The Greens left-of-center view is helping.
8. Can the SPD folks find the right boss to recover?
If you watch public TV, that argument is debated a good bit, and it goes nowhere. Ideally, this would be the moment when the Finance Minister (former Mayor of Hamburg)....Olaf Scholz....would stand up and take the job. However, he just doesn't have that much public appeal. If you were talking about an entirely new fresh start and new 'look'.....Scholz probably isn't the guy for the job.
9. Are the three state elections coming up in the fall a big deal now?
You could suggest that. But here's the odd factor.....in general, the Linke Party and the AfD Party are figured to take forty-percent of the vote (combined) in all three elections. The SPD Party doesn't really figure to take more than 12-percent in any of the three elections. The Greens might have a chance to come up with some 15-to-20 percent win and puff-up their national view.
10. Are we near the Merkel exit?
This is a debatable view. Its very possible that a coalition with the Greens and FDP would work out, and we'd go to the fall of 2021. If an election does occur toward the end of this year....it would not be a positive period for the CDU and the new Chancellor candidate (assuming AKK is the one).
So you ought to expect a bit more drama out of this summer in Germany.
Well, the results of this EU election (10 days ago) really hyped up the ongoing leadership woes of the SPD Party (junior partner of Merkel's coalition). The leadership decided that the party chief (Nahles) had to be dismissed out of the leadership function. Adding to the issue, we are about a hundred days out from a period of three eastern Germany state elections, and it kinda looks bleak for SPD outcomes.
2. Was Nahles (the SPD Party chief) a place-holder?
This is something that rarely gets brought up. Once they made the decision that Martin Schulz (the SPD Chancellor candidate in 2017's national election) had to be pushed out.....there really wasn't anyone standing there with a 'puffed-up' appearance for the role of party chief. It was just her luck to be standing there and various players in the party figured that a female role model might help.
3. New party chief, new direction?
Well, this is the current idea. In roughly three weeks, the SPD folks will meet and vote up the replacement. The thinking is that he (or she) will state the time is right to leave the coalition, and go hardcore anti-CDU or anti-Merkel.
4. If the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition goes away, then what?
There are three scenarios: (a) Merkel brings in the Greens and FDP Party....talks over their possibility, and a new coalition is created. (b) Merkel goes to something that has never been used in German politics....a minority government. This means that the SPD folks, the Greens, and Linke Party would have a majority of votes and could vote down anything that the CDU does. It's a fairly weak form of government and very likely to trigger an election within six months. (c) Basically call for a national election within ninety days. This isn't a great deal for the SPD because they are ranked at around 16-percent in polling right now.
5. All this drama leads back to Merkel?
Yep, more or less. She has no magic cards to lay out, and frankly....the public has reached a point where they'd like a new Chancellor, but can't find anyone to fit the role. If we go to a minority government, it would mean chaos....week by week, and probably lessen Merkel's legendary status.
6. What's with this SPD dramatic slide?
Back in September 2005, when Merkel came onto the scene as Chancellor.....she did one curious change with the CDU Party. She melted them into the center-point on almost every single topic. Prior to that, the CDU folks were right-of-center.
The SPD Party found themselves looking very much like the CDU Party, and public perception went to the lines of the CDU message and theme being slightly better. The SPD Party couldn't remake themselves without looking far-left.
If you talked to CDU folks.....probably a quarter of them are fed up with Merkel's center-point agenda and want the party to be further to the right.
7. Isn't all of this leading to the Greens being ahead of the SPD?
YES. There's no doubt that the polling is correct, with Greens around 20-percent presently, and likely to rise two points over the next couple of months (especially with the three state elections coming up). The Greens left-of-center view is helping.
8. Can the SPD folks find the right boss to recover?
If you watch public TV, that argument is debated a good bit, and it goes nowhere. Ideally, this would be the moment when the Finance Minister (former Mayor of Hamburg)....Olaf Scholz....would stand up and take the job. However, he just doesn't have that much public appeal. If you were talking about an entirely new fresh start and new 'look'.....Scholz probably isn't the guy for the job.
9. Are the three state elections coming up in the fall a big deal now?
You could suggest that. But here's the odd factor.....in general, the Linke Party and the AfD Party are figured to take forty-percent of the vote (combined) in all three elections. The SPD Party doesn't really figure to take more than 12-percent in any of the three elections. The Greens might have a chance to come up with some 15-to-20 percent win and puff-up their national view.
10. Are we near the Merkel exit?
This is a debatable view. Its very possible that a coalition with the Greens and FDP would work out, and we'd go to the fall of 2021. If an election does occur toward the end of this year....it would not be a positive period for the CDU and the new Chancellor candidate (assuming AKK is the one).
So you ought to expect a bit more drama out of this summer in Germany.
Tuesday, June 4, 2019
Tolerance Chatter
My regional Hessen public TV network (HR), has a topic for the next month which is being flipped on interviews with the public. The question? How tolerant are you?
Basically, they want to interview folks and put the camera on them.....to find out the tolerance 'level' of folks. The aim is to get folks to say they are VERY tolerant.
The problem I see with this situation is that if you asked people (in general)....are you happy with begger activity now around Wiesbaden? The answer will be 'NO'....with the majority negative about the numbers and aggressiveness of begging.
If you asked about crime potential, while statistics say one thing....most Hessens will say that they now observe things more carefully, and have taken various actions to prevent theft, assaults, etc.
If you asked about welfare supplements for non-Germans who've been here for more than two years and found no real work....Germans are fairly negative over the cost involved and the path ahead.
So this tolerance chatter might be a good public relations theme, but I just don't think it does much other than reassuring people of something that may or may not exist.
Basically, they want to interview folks and put the camera on them.....to find out the tolerance 'level' of folks. The aim is to get folks to say they are VERY tolerant.
The problem I see with this situation is that if you asked people (in general)....are you happy with begger activity now around Wiesbaden? The answer will be 'NO'....with the majority negative about the numbers and aggressiveness of begging.
If you asked about crime potential, while statistics say one thing....most Hessens will say that they now observe things more carefully, and have taken various actions to prevent theft, assaults, etc.
If you asked about welfare supplements for non-Germans who've been here for more than two years and found no real work....Germans are fairly negative over the cost involved and the path ahead.
So this tolerance chatter might be a good public relations theme, but I just don't think it does much other than reassuring people of something that may or may not exist.
What Germans Really Think About the CO2 Tax Idea
Week by week, with journalists and the Green Party in Germany at the lead.....there's hype over the idea of a CO2 tax....to SAVE Germany. Everything that uses or consumes or creates CO2....would in theory....have a tax added on.
For several months now, everyone has been lead to believe it's going to happen.
So yesterday, I noticed a poll done by the public TV news folks here in Germany. They went out and asked various people their party affiliation or preference, and how they were about the CO2 tax.
The shocker here?
The vast number of CDU-CSU folks (70-percent) are against the idea.
The vast number of SPD folks (58-percent) are against the idea.
The vast number of AfD folks (75-percent) are against the idea.
The vast number of FDP folks (63-percent) are against the idea.
Even with the Linke Party....it came with 51-percent of their folks against the idea.
Even with the Green Party.....it surprised some folks that one-third of their supporters don't support the CO2 tax idea.
So the odds of this tax going anywhere in 2019? I'd say zero percent chance. It might come up as a political 'gimmick' if a national election is called for in 2019, and might be one of the top three discussion items.....but if you look at the number.....more than three-quarters of the voters aren't that happy with another tax. Maybe they can find 90-percent of the 18-to-25 year old voters willing to go this way, but the bulk of voters really don't want some additional tax added onto their backs.
For several months now, everyone has been lead to believe it's going to happen.
So yesterday, I noticed a poll done by the public TV news folks here in Germany. They went out and asked various people their party affiliation or preference, and how they were about the CO2 tax.
The shocker here?
The vast number of CDU-CSU folks (70-percent) are against the idea.
The vast number of SPD folks (58-percent) are against the idea.
The vast number of AfD folks (75-percent) are against the idea.
The vast number of FDP folks (63-percent) are against the idea.
Even with the Linke Party....it came with 51-percent of their folks against the idea.
Even with the Green Party.....it surprised some folks that one-third of their supporters don't support the CO2 tax idea.
So the odds of this tax going anywhere in 2019? I'd say zero percent chance. It might come up as a political 'gimmick' if a national election is called for in 2019, and might be one of the top three discussion items.....but if you look at the number.....more than three-quarters of the voters aren't that happy with another tax. Maybe they can find 90-percent of the 18-to-25 year old voters willing to go this way, but the bulk of voters really don't want some additional tax added onto their backs.
Monday, June 3, 2019
Execution Story
I was sitting and reading through local (Hessen) news this morning and this odd story stands out.
We had a murder (more like an execution) to occur.
Oddly.....the chief of the Kassel (an hour's drive north of Frankfurt) CDU Party (Walter Lubcke) discovered dead from a gunshot to the head. Sixty-five years old, and active in local politics.
Cops? They've grabbed 20 detectives and conducting a five-star investigation.
Yep, execution murders like this typically don't happen in Germany. Sending a message? Well....you just don't know. He might have been supposed to deliver on some promise and failed......or owed some favor.
This will open up everything he's done for the past decade, I would suspect.
We had a murder (more like an execution) to occur.
Oddly.....the chief of the Kassel (an hour's drive north of Frankfurt) CDU Party (Walter Lubcke) discovered dead from a gunshot to the head. Sixty-five years old, and active in local politics.
Cops? They've grabbed 20 detectives and conducting a five-star investigation.
Yep, execution murders like this typically don't happen in Germany. Sending a message? Well....you just don't know. He might have been supposed to deliver on some promise and failed......or owed some favor.
This will open up everything he's done for the past decade, I would suspect.
Explaining Trump, Impeachment, etc To a German
Four observations here:
1. Imagine your wife around 2.5 years ago....standing up and saying that she's going to divorce you.....talking about this daily, and YET, 2.5 years pass by with these daily comments, and she's still in the house, married to you, serving you breakfast, cleaning the laundry.....still married to you.
The threat business hasn't really achieved much of anything, except dramatics.
2. To proceed via impeachment hearings....the House merely needs to conduct a real investigation, then write formal charges, and refer this to the Senate. It's not rocket-science. The House has not really advanced too far. I know that your German news media folks hype this almost weekly.....but if you sit and ask them how far this has advanced.....they mostly just grin and suggest any day now....it'll happen. Beyond that, it's just good 3rd-rate theatrical news.
3. The idea that talking about this has diminished Trump's numbers? No.....there's not a single poll existing in the US to suggest that all this talk has achieved that aim. Again, the German news media will show various polls to suggest a movement down, but oddly after a month or so....if you ask for updates, the same polls have moved back up.
4. This imaginary 'dragon' creature (the Republicans) to be eventually put down by some white knight Democrat? It's a nice scenario, but it's mostly older (over the age of 70) white guys. Do you really see them as 'white knights'?
1. Imagine your wife around 2.5 years ago....standing up and saying that she's going to divorce you.....talking about this daily, and YET, 2.5 years pass by with these daily comments, and she's still in the house, married to you, serving you breakfast, cleaning the laundry.....still married to you.
The threat business hasn't really achieved much of anything, except dramatics.
2. To proceed via impeachment hearings....the House merely needs to conduct a real investigation, then write formal charges, and refer this to the Senate. It's not rocket-science. The House has not really advanced too far. I know that your German news media folks hype this almost weekly.....but if you sit and ask them how far this has advanced.....they mostly just grin and suggest any day now....it'll happen. Beyond that, it's just good 3rd-rate theatrical news.
3. The idea that talking about this has diminished Trump's numbers? No.....there's not a single poll existing in the US to suggest that all this talk has achieved that aim. Again, the German news media will show various polls to suggest a movement down, but oddly after a month or so....if you ask for updates, the same polls have moved back up.
4. This imaginary 'dragon' creature (the Republicans) to be eventually put down by some white knight Democrat? It's a nice scenario, but it's mostly older (over the age of 70) white guys. Do you really see them as 'white knights'?
Political Spectrum
I was out of Germany for four days, and a fair amount of chaos ensued.
What was generally expected with the junior coalition partner party.....the SPD....finally occurred. The chief of the Party (Nahles) resigned. She'd been in charge of the party for roughly two years, and was more of a 'place-holder' than anything else.
The temp-chief now? Well.....three junior members of the party stepped up and will carry the party (yeah, it's weird but it's the contraption that the leadership chose). At least the three are fairly well known in the country, and all three said their names will not be submitted for the role when the big meeting occurs in three weeks.
So what happens now?
There is the worry that whoever steps up.....will cancel out the partnership with Merkel and bring down the government. Would Merkel (from the CDU) fail to arrange a new partnership? Her option is basically the CDU-CSU-Greens-FDP, run as a minority government (never been done in German history), or call for a new election. If you remember at the end of 2017.....the FDP and Greens were invited in and after about six to seven weeks.....the FDP said 'no'.....this partnership can't work.
To who takes over the SPD? I see three possible scenarios. First, the SPD Foreign Minister (Heiko Maas) steps up. I doubt if he wants the job. Second, the SPD Finance Minister (Olaf Scholz, former mayor of Hamburg). Scholz desperately wants the job and would like to run in the next election as Chancellor candidate....however, it's an inopportune situation and he'd have to dismantle the partnership....meaning he might be giving the Greens a major chance here. Finally, they might go to a rather unknown character.....as a weird 'place-holder' senario.
If another election were forced? Right now.....the Greens are firmly in second place, and near 20-percent in polls. I think they could get near 25-percent, and literally dump the SPD Party into a serious minor position (worst situation since 1940s). Oddly, three state elections are set in eastern Germany for the fall, and you really wouldn't want this election to occur in the midst that activity. I think if there was a new election....it'd be arranged for near November/December (after the elections).
As for the new election idea affecting Merkel? She won't run again (she already said that). The current figure that would be the candidate for them? AKK. She doesn't poll well, and that helps the Greens yet again. Some suspect that a new figure for the CDU has to arrive (beyond Merkel or AKK).
Chaos? Back at the end of 2016, a number of Germans were hoping that Merkel would move on, and a new image would arrive for Germany. Well....that group is currently frustrated and would like for something 'new' to occur (they aren't exactly pro-SPD or pro-Merkel, or even pro-CDU. They just want change.
All of this benefits Habeck from the Greens. My continual big scenario is that Habeck moves up with enough votes and becomes the new Chancellor for four years, and leads to more eventual votes for the AfD Party to be near 16 to 20 percent in national voting. The fringe to fringe scenario....I call it.
What was generally expected with the junior coalition partner party.....the SPD....finally occurred. The chief of the Party (Nahles) resigned. She'd been in charge of the party for roughly two years, and was more of a 'place-holder' than anything else.
The temp-chief now? Well.....three junior members of the party stepped up and will carry the party (yeah, it's weird but it's the contraption that the leadership chose). At least the three are fairly well known in the country, and all three said their names will not be submitted for the role when the big meeting occurs in three weeks.
So what happens now?
There is the worry that whoever steps up.....will cancel out the partnership with Merkel and bring down the government. Would Merkel (from the CDU) fail to arrange a new partnership? Her option is basically the CDU-CSU-Greens-FDP, run as a minority government (never been done in German history), or call for a new election. If you remember at the end of 2017.....the FDP and Greens were invited in and after about six to seven weeks.....the FDP said 'no'.....this partnership can't work.
To who takes over the SPD? I see three possible scenarios. First, the SPD Foreign Minister (Heiko Maas) steps up. I doubt if he wants the job. Second, the SPD Finance Minister (Olaf Scholz, former mayor of Hamburg). Scholz desperately wants the job and would like to run in the next election as Chancellor candidate....however, it's an inopportune situation and he'd have to dismantle the partnership....meaning he might be giving the Greens a major chance here. Finally, they might go to a rather unknown character.....as a weird 'place-holder' senario.
If another election were forced? Right now.....the Greens are firmly in second place, and near 20-percent in polls. I think they could get near 25-percent, and literally dump the SPD Party into a serious minor position (worst situation since 1940s). Oddly, three state elections are set in eastern Germany for the fall, and you really wouldn't want this election to occur in the midst that activity. I think if there was a new election....it'd be arranged for near November/December (after the elections).
As for the new election idea affecting Merkel? She won't run again (she already said that). The current figure that would be the candidate for them? AKK. She doesn't poll well, and that helps the Greens yet again. Some suspect that a new figure for the CDU has to arrive (beyond Merkel or AKK).
Chaos? Back at the end of 2016, a number of Germans were hoping that Merkel would move on, and a new image would arrive for Germany. Well....that group is currently frustrated and would like for something 'new' to occur (they aren't exactly pro-SPD or pro-Merkel, or even pro-CDU. They just want change.
All of this benefits Habeck from the Greens. My continual big scenario is that Habeck moves up with enough votes and becomes the new Chancellor for four years, and leads to more eventual votes for the AfD Party to be near 16 to 20 percent in national voting. The fringe to fringe scenario....I call it.
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