"It would do all religions good if you could laugh at them. That would be a step forward. "
-- Sylvia Lohrmann, Green Party, Discussion on Islam on Hard But Fair Show
Monday evenings on ARD (Channel One), there's always a decent political chat show that comes up. Last night was a talk on Islam in Germany. The spectrum was full.....political folks, journalists, and Islam enthusiasts. As the moderator went around the table for last comments.....Sylvia's comment carried a ton of weight upon it. Simple words....an idea worth thinking about.
I essentially caught the second-half of the show and have to admit that they hammered away at Muslim issue in Germany. If you didn't know much.....you got a five-star dose of information and positions.
Essentially, you have four major groups in Germany. You have a fair sized crowd that is fearful of where a larger Islamic presence is going to lead onto. This group isn't necessarily anti-Islam but they look at the threats made and the hostilities that brew up, and the lack of integration....and they can't help be be frustrated.
On the opposite side of the spectrum are the folks who desire an open atmosphere and are truly open to various religions and cultures. They are shocked by violence and threats, but come right back to some open-arms mentality. These are people who watch a lot of Channel One....get hyped with their enthusiasm, and retreat when reality occurs of a harsh nature.....but then return for more. Wild apes could take over Bavaria, and they'd get hyped up in fear, then accept the wild apes eventually as Channel One told them it was OK.
Somewhere in the middle.....you have the third group which is under the belief that Islam will change under the German umbrella. There's 500 years of German enthusiasm to lose your religion and just be happy. This group thinks the harsh reality of Germany (high taxation, high standard of life, social climate, significant cost of living, and remarkable educational opportunities) will lead people to change.
The fourth group? These are people who think that Germans will change, and it'll be a multicultural state with dozens of religions and cultures all wonderfully blended into some hybrid German state in the future. If you were looking for the most unrealistic group of the four.....this would be it. I doubt if this group makes up more than two percent of the German population, but they tend to be the intellectual crowd, and get face time on Channel One a good bit.
I have to admit.....the quote by the Green representative on the panel last night was a four-star quote. When you look at the Christian side and the amount of humor and sarcasm dumped on the Catholic Church.....it offers some minor relief to serious discussions on the Christianity. Trying to offer humor on Islam? You'd get a death threat or have thousands of people on your back because of the insult. Sylvia Lohrmann is right.....but it'll never happen.
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Sunday, September 27, 2015
A Stick Fight?
German cops got called today to the refugee center over here in Hessen at Calden (at the regional airport). What the TV news says....very briefly....is that sixty to seventy guys got into a stick and rock confrontation. Couple of guys got slightly injured and seen by medical folks. All the cops will generally hint is that it was two groups.....Albanians and Pakistani.
Where they got the sticks? Well, nobody said much on that. You would think that there would be daily security sweeps of the compound area and potential weapons confiscated.
As for the relationships in conflict? Well, that's a curious thing because of the change this week over the Albanians from a safe area.....there's going to be a significant number of Albanians throughout Germany who are sent back home within the next couple weeks. I suspect that the Pakistani folks tainted the Albanians and they just got all hyped up.
This is one of the dozen-odd problems with the refugee camps.....they are made up of various cultures and societies, and they don't mix that well. The Germans have said in public forums that they are aware of this and have tried to keep certain groups from mixing with other groups. Obviously.....it hasn't worked that well.
Where they got the sticks? Well, nobody said much on that. You would think that there would be daily security sweeps of the compound area and potential weapons confiscated.
As for the relationships in conflict? Well, that's a curious thing because of the change this week over the Albanians from a safe area.....there's going to be a significant number of Albanians throughout Germany who are sent back home within the next couple weeks. I suspect that the Pakistani folks tainted the Albanians and they just got all hyped up.
This is one of the dozen-odd problems with the refugee camps.....they are made up of various cultures and societies, and they don't mix that well. The Germans have said in public forums that they are aware of this and have tried to keep certain groups from mixing with other groups. Obviously.....it hasn't worked that well.
That Metal Disk Story
I read a fair amount of non-German news sources, and came this morning across this odd story out of France.
What can be said is that school officials got frustrated about special people and special diets at a school. They discussed the matter and finally came to the conclusion that kids can't be expected to monitor their special lifestyle or diet themselves.....so you need to identify the kids and have the teacher or the cafe lady serving food.....to know the special kid. The kid would flash some metal badge and things would be 'fine' then.
By lifestyle or diet.....there were three categories that fell into this French logic of thinking: Jewish, Muslim, and vegetarian. The Jews and Muslim can't eat pork, and the vegetarian can't eat meat.
Naturally, you'd spend a fair amount of time as a school director over this issue and the only logical solution would be some 'marking'.
So, they invented these red and yellow disks that you'd wear around your neck. The news source that I read this piece from.....didn't have any pictures. So I'm left to assume there's some kind of chain and a fancy but cheap metal disk. Red probably means no pork and yellow means no meat.
The kids went home....showed their new fancy disk to mom and dad, and then.....all hell broke loose.
Meetings were held and it only took a day for the mayor to step in and throw out the whole disk idea. No one says much over where the idea came from or the meeting where this came from.
Yeah, it all has Nazi suggestions written over it.....like the Star of David idea from the 1930s.
I read through the piece.....it originates out of Auxerre, in Burgundy. Burgundy is in central France....kinda southeast of Paris, and known for great wine, lots of agricultural products, and a rural atmosphere.
My folks.....well, going back 1,000 years came from Normandy (stopping off for a couple of centuries in eastern UK).....so I have some French ancestry and connection to France.
The odd thing about this whole story is that we are back to stage one of the lunch problem. A bunch of special kids who aren't supposed to eat pork or meat. The kid.....for all the vast knowledge and understanding that he or she has.....really doesn't know much over the food they eat....other than mom says they shouldn't eat pork. If I was the school menu gal.....I'd make this simple....just hand each kid an apple and banana each day. Frankly, you'd hope by the time they turn seventeen or eighteen.....maybe they've figured out the special nature of their lifestyle and can moderate themselves to some degree.
Well, you can only hope this.
What can be said is that school officials got frustrated about special people and special diets at a school. They discussed the matter and finally came to the conclusion that kids can't be expected to monitor their special lifestyle or diet themselves.....so you need to identify the kids and have the teacher or the cafe lady serving food.....to know the special kid. The kid would flash some metal badge and things would be 'fine' then.
By lifestyle or diet.....there were three categories that fell into this French logic of thinking: Jewish, Muslim, and vegetarian. The Jews and Muslim can't eat pork, and the vegetarian can't eat meat.
Naturally, you'd spend a fair amount of time as a school director over this issue and the only logical solution would be some 'marking'.
So, they invented these red and yellow disks that you'd wear around your neck. The news source that I read this piece from.....didn't have any pictures. So I'm left to assume there's some kind of chain and a fancy but cheap metal disk. Red probably means no pork and yellow means no meat.
The kids went home....showed their new fancy disk to mom and dad, and then.....all hell broke loose.
Meetings were held and it only took a day for the mayor to step in and throw out the whole disk idea. No one says much over where the idea came from or the meeting where this came from.
Yeah, it all has Nazi suggestions written over it.....like the Star of David idea from the 1930s.
I read through the piece.....it originates out of Auxerre, in Burgundy. Burgundy is in central France....kinda southeast of Paris, and known for great wine, lots of agricultural products, and a rural atmosphere.
My folks.....well, going back 1,000 years came from Normandy (stopping off for a couple of centuries in eastern UK).....so I have some French ancestry and connection to France.
The odd thing about this whole story is that we are back to stage one of the lunch problem. A bunch of special kids who aren't supposed to eat pork or meat. The kid.....for all the vast knowledge and understanding that he or she has.....really doesn't know much over the food they eat....other than mom says they shouldn't eat pork. If I was the school menu gal.....I'd make this simple....just hand each kid an apple and banana each day. Frankly, you'd hope by the time they turn seventeen or eighteen.....maybe they've figured out the special nature of their lifestyle and can moderate themselves to some degree.
Well, you can only hope this.
The Plagiarism Hunter Story
The weekend started with an odd story by the German news media. The Defense Minister of Germany.....Ursula von der Leyen.....has been accused of plagiarism and using false references in her 1991 thesis for her doctorate degree from the Medical University of Hanover.
The jest of this? There's this hyped-up group of plagiarism hunters who work for VroniPlag.....a curious organization.....who do research on mostly political figures and their thesis products from decades ago.
In this accusation, VroniPlag says that roughly sixty-odd pages of the thesis had issues.
I sat and looked at the title of the thesis: "C-Reactive protein as a diagnostic parameter for detecting a Amniotic Infection Syndrome with premature rupture and therapeutic relaxation in childbirth". Yeah, it's a pretty dedicated piece to health issues only. It's the type of thesis that ninety-nine percent of the public would pass on and prefer not to read or review for errors.
VroniPlag has this history.....they hunt for players who have master's degrees or doctorate degrees and utilize various software platforms to identify plagiarism issues. According to Wiki, at least to the mid-point of 2015....they had at least 120-odd reviews going on. Some political folks....some business people.
The issue itself?
Before the commercialization of universities (not just the US but Germany as well).....at the conclusion part of your study....you had to demonstrate an understanding of the topic that you'd spent four to seven years studying. This usually involved a meeting between a couple of the professors and you....where a question would be asked and you would form some discussion or argument to "entertain" the professors.
In terms of "entertain", I mean showing a grasp of the topic and offering some comprehensive review of the subject area.
After the commercialization era, people wanted this done as a thesis or dissertation....in written form. This usually gave the student less fear of having to meet the learned team of professors and argue something or discuss a theory that they really weren't experts on. The thesis was the lesser of evils, at least in theory.
By writing this....you'd show the opening statement, some research on numbers or facts....citing them of course, and then come to a balanced conclusion that made sense. On paper, it was a wonderful idea.
As time went by, it became obvious that the papers were now graded on three levels.
The first level was simply the demonstration of your knowledge level. You actually had to select a topic that the professor might be entertained by and see your interest.
The second level was the usage of facts and research. You would provide the professor with the idea that you were gifted and capable of reading a vast amount of material....come to conclusions....and interpret the data in an appropriate fashion.
Finally, the third level.....the grammar and citations. You had to actually write a coherent piece....sometimes in the fifty to one-hundred page quantity....with proper usage of grammar. Then you had to cite in the proper fashion each comment lifted from another report, book or document. If you just cited that 1,450 people live in Bierstadt.....where did the number come from and did you cite it correctly?
Some professors would just be thrilled to have a great paper on the first level, an average paper on facts/research, and a marginally gifted paper on grammar and citations. Other professors would go the opposite direction.
How much effort do the professors put into grading a thesis? That would be debatable.
You could hand one thesis to one university to get a marginally passing situation, and another university would grade it as outstanding.
I would offer this observation. After spending X number of years studying under some program....a number of people reach a point in the midst of a master's degree or doctorate program where they've hit the peak and feel burned out. They are having discussions with the professor over the possible topics.....feeling encouraged or discouraged on several different fronts. Their enthusiasm has shifted.
The threat of severe grammar or writing review? Frankly, unless you are in a program for English Literature or French Classics....the odds are that you don't have fantastic writing ability. Then you start to worry over the time involved in this project....it could take two or three months to write the whole thing and feel confident with the topic, the argument, the grammar, and the citations.
So, people start to look for short-cuts. They use ten facts in some ten-line piece, from ten different sources, and only identify seven or eight of the sources. Long hours play into this.....as you might burn up sixteen hours on a Saturday at some university library, and you simple screw up as you are trying to meet the deadline and deliver a very precise document.
The other short-cut is to find someone who wrote a similar subject four years ago at another university and got an outstanding review.....so you buy a copy of their product and lift significant portions for your product. Twenty years ago.....it would work fine. Today with the internet and software....you've got people who want to ID people who lift passages or plagiarize to meet the final product.
The general problem with this attitude by VroniPlag? In some cases, the thesis was written twenty or thirty years ago. The professor is long-since dead, and the writer of the thesis is now in their mid-fifties. A lot has passed since the writing of the thesis. Now to drag it up? What's this supposed to fix or solve?
If VroniPlag wanted to say something....fine....go for all of the graduates of 1975....every single one of them. The people who got master's degrees in French literature, marine science, or biology? Pull up every single one of them and question them. Be level across the board instead of cherry-picking your 'victims'. As the current trend goes....you want it to be a political statement and take down people at the pinnacle of their success in life. Or use this fantastic power to go after everyone who graduated in 2009 and bring them down early in life.
My hunch is that VroniPlag will continue their hunt until some identified victim commits suicide. Then a couple of university chancellors will gather, discuss the matter, and decide that once they award a degree....they won't go back to review it. And to hinder VroniPlag.....they will restrict the material by making it copy-righted or simply hiding it in their restricted archives.
Based on German journalists so far, Von der Leyen has a moderate problem with citations and it's not a big deal. Some believe that the medical folks at Hanover will go back.....review the whole thing twenty years after the fact and just say it was marginal issues and not a big deal.
VroniPlag? It'll just continue it's hunt and look for the next victim that they can take down. The folks behind VroniPlag? If they have degrees.....someone will eventually figure out that someone needs to review the reviewers at VroniPlag. Then after that....someone will ask the magic question....who funds the people behind VroniPlag. If it's just a hobby with no cost....fine. I have problems believing the hobby angle and that people would want to spend a fair amount of personal money on the software required and put two-hundred or three-hundred hours into peer-review of some document written twenty years ago.
A story? Well, for news value, I give it a "2" out of a "10". If they were taking down journalists, zoo directors, volcano experts, engineers at Mercedes, and environmental scientists.....no one would ever say much because it seemed like a level playing field. In this case.....it has a funny smell.
The jest of this? There's this hyped-up group of plagiarism hunters who work for VroniPlag.....a curious organization.....who do research on mostly political figures and their thesis products from decades ago.
In this accusation, VroniPlag says that roughly sixty-odd pages of the thesis had issues.
I sat and looked at the title of the thesis: "C-Reactive protein as a diagnostic parameter for detecting a Amniotic Infection Syndrome with premature rupture and therapeutic relaxation in childbirth". Yeah, it's a pretty dedicated piece to health issues only. It's the type of thesis that ninety-nine percent of the public would pass on and prefer not to read or review for errors.
VroniPlag has this history.....they hunt for players who have master's degrees or doctorate degrees and utilize various software platforms to identify plagiarism issues. According to Wiki, at least to the mid-point of 2015....they had at least 120-odd reviews going on. Some political folks....some business people.
The issue itself?
Before the commercialization of universities (not just the US but Germany as well).....at the conclusion part of your study....you had to demonstrate an understanding of the topic that you'd spent four to seven years studying. This usually involved a meeting between a couple of the professors and you....where a question would be asked and you would form some discussion or argument to "entertain" the professors.
In terms of "entertain", I mean showing a grasp of the topic and offering some comprehensive review of the subject area.
After the commercialization era, people wanted this done as a thesis or dissertation....in written form. This usually gave the student less fear of having to meet the learned team of professors and argue something or discuss a theory that they really weren't experts on. The thesis was the lesser of evils, at least in theory.
By writing this....you'd show the opening statement, some research on numbers or facts....citing them of course, and then come to a balanced conclusion that made sense. On paper, it was a wonderful idea.
As time went by, it became obvious that the papers were now graded on three levels.
The first level was simply the demonstration of your knowledge level. You actually had to select a topic that the professor might be entertained by and see your interest.
The second level was the usage of facts and research. You would provide the professor with the idea that you were gifted and capable of reading a vast amount of material....come to conclusions....and interpret the data in an appropriate fashion.
Finally, the third level.....the grammar and citations. You had to actually write a coherent piece....sometimes in the fifty to one-hundred page quantity....with proper usage of grammar. Then you had to cite in the proper fashion each comment lifted from another report, book or document. If you just cited that 1,450 people live in Bierstadt.....where did the number come from and did you cite it correctly?
Some professors would just be thrilled to have a great paper on the first level, an average paper on facts/research, and a marginally gifted paper on grammar and citations. Other professors would go the opposite direction.
How much effort do the professors put into grading a thesis? That would be debatable.
You could hand one thesis to one university to get a marginally passing situation, and another university would grade it as outstanding.
I would offer this observation. After spending X number of years studying under some program....a number of people reach a point in the midst of a master's degree or doctorate program where they've hit the peak and feel burned out. They are having discussions with the professor over the possible topics.....feeling encouraged or discouraged on several different fronts. Their enthusiasm has shifted.
The threat of severe grammar or writing review? Frankly, unless you are in a program for English Literature or French Classics....the odds are that you don't have fantastic writing ability. Then you start to worry over the time involved in this project....it could take two or three months to write the whole thing and feel confident with the topic, the argument, the grammar, and the citations.
So, people start to look for short-cuts. They use ten facts in some ten-line piece, from ten different sources, and only identify seven or eight of the sources. Long hours play into this.....as you might burn up sixteen hours on a Saturday at some university library, and you simple screw up as you are trying to meet the deadline and deliver a very precise document.
The other short-cut is to find someone who wrote a similar subject four years ago at another university and got an outstanding review.....so you buy a copy of their product and lift significant portions for your product. Twenty years ago.....it would work fine. Today with the internet and software....you've got people who want to ID people who lift passages or plagiarize to meet the final product.
The general problem with this attitude by VroniPlag? In some cases, the thesis was written twenty or thirty years ago. The professor is long-since dead, and the writer of the thesis is now in their mid-fifties. A lot has passed since the writing of the thesis. Now to drag it up? What's this supposed to fix or solve?
If VroniPlag wanted to say something....fine....go for all of the graduates of 1975....every single one of them. The people who got master's degrees in French literature, marine science, or biology? Pull up every single one of them and question them. Be level across the board instead of cherry-picking your 'victims'. As the current trend goes....you want it to be a political statement and take down people at the pinnacle of their success in life. Or use this fantastic power to go after everyone who graduated in 2009 and bring them down early in life.
My hunch is that VroniPlag will continue their hunt until some identified victim commits suicide. Then a couple of university chancellors will gather, discuss the matter, and decide that once they award a degree....they won't go back to review it. And to hinder VroniPlag.....they will restrict the material by making it copy-righted or simply hiding it in their restricted archives.
Based on German journalists so far, Von der Leyen has a moderate problem with citations and it's not a big deal. Some believe that the medical folks at Hanover will go back.....review the whole thing twenty years after the fact and just say it was marginal issues and not a big deal.
VroniPlag? It'll just continue it's hunt and look for the next victim that they can take down. The folks behind VroniPlag? If they have degrees.....someone will eventually figure out that someone needs to review the reviewers at VroniPlag. Then after that....someone will ask the magic question....who funds the people behind VroniPlag. If it's just a hobby with no cost....fine. I have problems believing the hobby angle and that people would want to spend a fair amount of personal money on the software required and put two-hundred or three-hundred hours into peer-review of some document written twenty years ago.
A story? Well, for news value, I give it a "2" out of a "10". If they were taking down journalists, zoo directors, volcano experts, engineers at Mercedes, and environmental scientists.....no one would ever say much because it seemed like a level playing field. In this case.....it has a funny smell.
TV Review: Blokhin
This past week, ARD (Channel One from the German networks) ran a highly advertised six-parter TV series entitled "Blokhin". It was what some German journalists suggest....an attempt by the network to produce something in the quality and theme of the US production of "Breaking Bad".
I sat there and watched about thirty minutes of the show and came to some point where I just didn't see the direction of the script or anything really related to "Breaking Bad" other than high quality actors.
Having watched all of the American series, I will note that twenty-five percent of Breaking Bad was a comical-like theme where an average guy just walks into a situation and things go in an unusual way. You reached a point where you pulled for the bad guys as much as you pulled for the good guys, and Walter White was some mythical hero on a mission but you just didn't know the purpose of the mission until the end. The audience for Breaking Bad grew as each season passed.
I sat and read over commentary the day after Blokhin.....which came in a fair dosage. There were high expectations and it simply didn't deliver. Some questioned how you could transform Brandenburg into some seedy New Orleans-like city with infested crime and a significant underworld.
The jest of all of this? Some people would like for higher quality movie productions to be somewhere in the state-run TV movie empire. You can split the current of movie script choices for Channel One and Two into four basic groups: (1) some light romantic piece with the mountains, Berlin or coast in the background, (2) some murder-cop thriller, (3) some family drama with dementia or four-star health issue, or (4) a historical drama. Forget about science fiction, ghosts, a 'what-if' script, or some Tarzan-like hero on an open plain.
Maybe Blokhin needed some better entry story for the first five minutes....something that told the story about the story, or some character flaw introduction that made you feel for him like you did for Walter White.
Anyway, that's about all I can say for Blokhin.
I sat there and watched about thirty minutes of the show and came to some point where I just didn't see the direction of the script or anything really related to "Breaking Bad" other than high quality actors.
Having watched all of the American series, I will note that twenty-five percent of Breaking Bad was a comical-like theme where an average guy just walks into a situation and things go in an unusual way. You reached a point where you pulled for the bad guys as much as you pulled for the good guys, and Walter White was some mythical hero on a mission but you just didn't know the purpose of the mission until the end. The audience for Breaking Bad grew as each season passed.
I sat and read over commentary the day after Blokhin.....which came in a fair dosage. There were high expectations and it simply didn't deliver. Some questioned how you could transform Brandenburg into some seedy New Orleans-like city with infested crime and a significant underworld.
The jest of all of this? Some people would like for higher quality movie productions to be somewhere in the state-run TV movie empire. You can split the current of movie script choices for Channel One and Two into four basic groups: (1) some light romantic piece with the mountains, Berlin or coast in the background, (2) some murder-cop thriller, (3) some family drama with dementia or four-star health issue, or (4) a historical drama. Forget about science fiction, ghosts, a 'what-if' script, or some Tarzan-like hero on an open plain.
Maybe Blokhin needed some better entry story for the first five minutes....something that told the story about the story, or some character flaw introduction that made you feel for him like you did for Walter White.
Anyway, that's about all I can say for Blokhin.
Friday, September 25, 2015
An Impossible Act: To Disappear in Germany
Germans have developed a society and enough rules.....that it is practically impossible to disappear....at least within the border itself.
You can't just make up a name....an alias....and pretend to be someone and walk around doing jobs, traveling or opening bank accounts. All of these require an ID and you have to present an ID at various points to live a normal German life. I've been told this....over and over and over.
Well.....this week....an episode occurred and I've come to realize that you can disappear within Germany. In the mid-1980s.....a twenty-four-year-old student disappeared. Cops came looking, and eventually....they closed the case by saying she was dead. I should note.....there is no body....so it's odd how they came to this conclusion.
Thirty-one years passed, and a month ago.....the fifty-five-year-old woman suddenly appeared. She's living under an assumed name.
This is an interesting case because the cops even advertised her on their state-run TV show (XY) back in the 1980s....hoping to find evidence of her demise.
So, the curiosity now is....how do you survive without a bank account (would require showing a passport ID), a health card, or travel passport? All she says is that she assumed another identity and continued on.
My humble guess is that she had attitude change about the family and escaping was the way to solve the problem at hand. The cops are correct.....it ought to be impossible in Germany today to make it without showing a legit ID or passport. Where was her pension contributions going to? How did she travel if she left the country?
Oddly, the family of the woman learned of the whole thing, and would like to have some meeting with her.....which the cops agreed to pass a letter to her but won't identify where she lives. She (at least by what the journalist wrote up).....didn't seem eager to meet with the relatives.
If you were looking for a four-star script for a movie.....this is potentially an interesting idea to write a script over.
You can't just make up a name....an alias....and pretend to be someone and walk around doing jobs, traveling or opening bank accounts. All of these require an ID and you have to present an ID at various points to live a normal German life. I've been told this....over and over and over.
Well.....this week....an episode occurred and I've come to realize that you can disappear within Germany. In the mid-1980s.....a twenty-four-year-old student disappeared. Cops came looking, and eventually....they closed the case by saying she was dead. I should note.....there is no body....so it's odd how they came to this conclusion.
Thirty-one years passed, and a month ago.....the fifty-five-year-old woman suddenly appeared. She's living under an assumed name.
This is an interesting case because the cops even advertised her on their state-run TV show (XY) back in the 1980s....hoping to find evidence of her demise.
So, the curiosity now is....how do you survive without a bank account (would require showing a passport ID), a health card, or travel passport? All she says is that she assumed another identity and continued on.
My humble guess is that she had attitude change about the family and escaping was the way to solve the problem at hand. The cops are correct.....it ought to be impossible in Germany today to make it without showing a legit ID or passport. Where was her pension contributions going to? How did she travel if she left the country?
Oddly, the family of the woman learned of the whole thing, and would like to have some meeting with her.....which the cops agreed to pass a letter to her but won't identify where she lives. She (at least by what the journalist wrote up).....didn't seem eager to meet with the relatives.
If you were looking for a four-star script for a movie.....this is potentially an interesting idea to write a script over.
The Berlin Crowd At Work
Late yesterday, the German leadership met up in Berlin and agreed on a number of refugee topics.
First, Berlin will pay out to each state government a sum of 670 Euro for each refugee they house, per month. It's a fair sum of cash and probably double what some expected Berlin to agree to. If you figure roughly ten Euro a day on food provided to the refugees (300 Euro), and incidental costs (heat, electricity, travel, etc).....then it probably gets up near the ninety-percent point of what an average refugee costs. Course, there's the language and integration classes (figure one thousand Euro as a minimum) and that will come from some pot of money.
The second big deal of this meeting is that Albania, Kosovo and Montenegro are now declared "safe countries of origin". Translated? Well.....the guys who control the approval process....can basically pull up roughly two-hundred-thousand files and start hitting 'disapproved' rather quickly. Naturally.....if you've been sitting in some compound area for six months and kept thinking you'd get approved to stay (being from Kosovo for example)....well, this will be a shock as they note you fail at immigration.
This will turn into a very hectic and frustrating moment for thousands of guys in these camps....angry over the change of events and disturbed that some Syrian guy will get a chance that you won't get.
A legal challenge to come? I would suspect that someone will quickly put this to a legal test and the German court system....ever famous for two-year discussions before rendering a verdict.....might create a bigger mess by getting involved in this.
Last night....ARD (state-run channel One)....ran an update piece that was loaded with facts and numbers (something rare).
For 2014, they noted that 122,000 Syrians came into Germany....while from the safe countries of origin....it was around 105,000 people who applied. From Africa, it was around 70,000 people who applied for immigration in Germany.
Yeah, it translates to mean that roughly a third of the total for 2014 were Syrians.
For 2015? You probably won't get any real facts until the spring of 2016. It might shock folks to realize that roughly half of the million that came in 2015....were from safe countries of origin and were sent back to their country.
First, Berlin will pay out to each state government a sum of 670 Euro for each refugee they house, per month. It's a fair sum of cash and probably double what some expected Berlin to agree to. If you figure roughly ten Euro a day on food provided to the refugees (300 Euro), and incidental costs (heat, electricity, travel, etc).....then it probably gets up near the ninety-percent point of what an average refugee costs. Course, there's the language and integration classes (figure one thousand Euro as a minimum) and that will come from some pot of money.
The second big deal of this meeting is that Albania, Kosovo and Montenegro are now declared "safe countries of origin". Translated? Well.....the guys who control the approval process....can basically pull up roughly two-hundred-thousand files and start hitting 'disapproved' rather quickly. Naturally.....if you've been sitting in some compound area for six months and kept thinking you'd get approved to stay (being from Kosovo for example)....well, this will be a shock as they note you fail at immigration.
This will turn into a very hectic and frustrating moment for thousands of guys in these camps....angry over the change of events and disturbed that some Syrian guy will get a chance that you won't get.
A legal challenge to come? I would suspect that someone will quickly put this to a legal test and the German court system....ever famous for two-year discussions before rendering a verdict.....might create a bigger mess by getting involved in this.
Last night....ARD (state-run channel One)....ran an update piece that was loaded with facts and numbers (something rare).
For 2014, they noted that 122,000 Syrians came into Germany....while from the safe countries of origin....it was around 105,000 people who applied. From Africa, it was around 70,000 people who applied for immigration in Germany.
Yeah, it translates to mean that roughly a third of the total for 2014 were Syrians.
For 2015? You probably won't get any real facts until the spring of 2016. It might shock folks to realize that roughly half of the million that came in 2015....were from safe countries of origin and were sent back to their country.
Thursday, September 24, 2015
Pure Investigative Journalism
Back in the 1980s....you'd notice some US networks and newspapers doing real investigative journalism. At least once a month, you'd be watching something and feel kinda surprised that these guys found different ways to tell a story and dig into it with creativity. Frankly, it's hard in today's atmosphere to see that kind of enthusiasm. I was sitting there last night and watching HR (my local region German network) and observed that old-fashioned investigative journalism.
It was an honest story.
They wanted to see just how much you could fake people out on cosmetic facial cream. So they had these three jars....an expensive 250-Euro creme.....a 50-Euro creme.....and a 19-Euro creme. Then they went to some professor and decided to make their own creme out of a five-gallon bucket of fat from a local butcher.
Yep.....pure fat.
They blended in some nice scents, and various elements.....tinted it light green, and put it into a nice small glass container. They spent some time and got a four-star label on the item. Then they went into a test phase with several women. The homemade blend of animal fat? It did pretty well.....was received well and highly praised. Per container, I doubt if the total cost was more than a Euro or two.
All along the story.....they had various professors who talked about the production cycle, the advertising cycle, and the innovation cycle. In fifteen minutes.....it was a great investigative journalism piece....inventing a story out of thin air.
It was an honest story.
They wanted to see just how much you could fake people out on cosmetic facial cream. So they had these three jars....an expensive 250-Euro creme.....a 50-Euro creme.....and a 19-Euro creme. Then they went to some professor and decided to make their own creme out of a five-gallon bucket of fat from a local butcher.
Yep.....pure fat.
They blended in some nice scents, and various elements.....tinted it light green, and put it into a nice small glass container. They spent some time and got a four-star label on the item. Then they went into a test phase with several women. The homemade blend of animal fat? It did pretty well.....was received well and highly praised. Per container, I doubt if the total cost was more than a Euro or two.
All along the story.....they had various professors who talked about the production cycle, the advertising cycle, and the innovation cycle. In fifteen minutes.....it was a great investigative journalism piece....inventing a story out of thin air.
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
The 1634 Bible Story
If you are an American who travels around Germany.....you will come to eventually face up to a cop-check-point. There are varying types of check-points. Some are just to check your vehicle itself....tires, lights out, or possibly alterations to the vehicle which are illegal. Some are just for checking booze situations on Friday or Saturday night. And some are for customs folks to see if you have drugs, illegally imported smokes, or transporting refugees.
Occasionally, cops will report that they found something of value, with no real explanation. This came up today via Focus.
They noted back in August this checkpoint had occurred over near Lubeck, and the guy had this Lutheran Bible from 1634 in the car. Ownership became a question, and the cops confiscated the Bible.
So far, they've been looking for the original owner and had no luck. What the experts say about this particular 1634 copy? It's rare....very rare....that one comes up in an auction. They think it's been twenty years in Germany since one of these 1634 copies was sold off.
The guy that the cops took this Bible from? He's apparently not saying much or cooperating. He can't explain where it came from, and no one has reported any 1634 copy missing.
The explanation? I sat and pondered over this story, and rare manuscripts. Around Germany, there are several thousand people who have private collections of art, statues, and books. You'd think that these guys would have it in a locked safe or vault. Well, that's just not the case in Germany. There are tens of thousands of high-value documents....sitting in plain eyesight....in some guy's den or his office library.
In Wiesbaden, we have a nifty book store which only handle antique-type books. You could walk up and want a early 1800s book on French poetry, and they probably have such a book.
My guess is that some guy had this 1634 copy of the Lutheran Bible in their personal library and simply haven't noticed it missing (among the thousand-odd books that might be sitting there still). It's an interesting story.....but only if the rightful owner comes out to say he's the owner. And how will he present his case? Well, that's something that I wondered about. Most guys aren't going to have a receipt for things like this, and maybe it's been passed down from generation to generation. You just don't know.
Occasionally, cops will report that they found something of value, with no real explanation. This came up today via Focus.
They noted back in August this checkpoint had occurred over near Lubeck, and the guy had this Lutheran Bible from 1634 in the car. Ownership became a question, and the cops confiscated the Bible.
So far, they've been looking for the original owner and had no luck. What the experts say about this particular 1634 copy? It's rare....very rare....that one comes up in an auction. They think it's been twenty years in Germany since one of these 1634 copies was sold off.
The guy that the cops took this Bible from? He's apparently not saying much or cooperating. He can't explain where it came from, and no one has reported any 1634 copy missing.
The explanation? I sat and pondered over this story, and rare manuscripts. Around Germany, there are several thousand people who have private collections of art, statues, and books. You'd think that these guys would have it in a locked safe or vault. Well, that's just not the case in Germany. There are tens of thousands of high-value documents....sitting in plain eyesight....in some guy's den or his office library.
In Wiesbaden, we have a nifty book store which only handle antique-type books. You could walk up and want a early 1800s book on French poetry, and they probably have such a book.
My guess is that some guy had this 1634 copy of the Lutheran Bible in their personal library and simply haven't noticed it missing (among the thousand-odd books that might be sitting there still). It's an interesting story.....but only if the rightful owner comes out to say he's the owner. And how will he present his case? Well, that's something that I wondered about. Most guys aren't going to have a receipt for things like this, and maybe it's been passed down from generation to generation. You just don't know.
Court Action in Germany
Germans like structure, rules, and regulations. They also like to enforce these....to the ninth degree.
Back in 2011, there was a mess unfolding in Libya.....with chaos and potential hostage issues brewing. The German Bundeswehr made a determination, decided a course of action, and within hours....had what you'd call a rescue team there to pull 132 people (22 of them Germans) out of what might have been a fairly serious situation. They weren't prisoners or such....but the civil conflict was unfolding rather quickly and it simply made sense to do it now....rather than wait and watch it turn into a hostage mess.
Well.....some folks at the Bundestag were disturbed....mostly from the Green Party. There is a rule written into the operation of the German government which says that the Bundestag must consult with the Bundeswehr, in a meeting where the issue is discussed and the Bundestag can deny the operation to occur.
Unlike where the President of the United States can simply order the military to operate on some order.....in Germany....it's supposed to be up to a debate if they can leave Germany and conduct actions.
So, the Green Party sued in court. Yeah, kinda shocking.
You can imagine how this might have gone.....if consultation had taken place.....possibly for hours and hours, with news of the meeting leaking out, and the element of surprise gone, and then ordering the Bundeswehr to operate in a fairly hostile environment.
The German Federal Federal Constitutional Court finally came out today with it's ruling.
They generally agreed.....the Bundestag does have authority and control on foreign missions. But then they said....the rules apply 'in-general'
Then, the Court defined this one exception: "In case of emergency, the federal government is exceptionally entitled provisionally to decide alone the use." Other than informing the Bundestag immediately.....with the prescribed course and use of action....subsequent approval is not always necessary.
In this case, the Green Party lost. And some unwritten rule of the Bundestag has been enhanced or modified....without a lot of frustrated political folks in the middle.
Back in 2011, there was a mess unfolding in Libya.....with chaos and potential hostage issues brewing. The German Bundeswehr made a determination, decided a course of action, and within hours....had what you'd call a rescue team there to pull 132 people (22 of them Germans) out of what might have been a fairly serious situation. They weren't prisoners or such....but the civil conflict was unfolding rather quickly and it simply made sense to do it now....rather than wait and watch it turn into a hostage mess.
Well.....some folks at the Bundestag were disturbed....mostly from the Green Party. There is a rule written into the operation of the German government which says that the Bundestag must consult with the Bundeswehr, in a meeting where the issue is discussed and the Bundestag can deny the operation to occur.
Unlike where the President of the United States can simply order the military to operate on some order.....in Germany....it's supposed to be up to a debate if they can leave Germany and conduct actions.
So, the Green Party sued in court. Yeah, kinda shocking.
You can imagine how this might have gone.....if consultation had taken place.....possibly for hours and hours, with news of the meeting leaking out, and the element of surprise gone, and then ordering the Bundeswehr to operate in a fairly hostile environment.
The German Federal Federal Constitutional Court finally came out today with it's ruling.
They generally agreed.....the Bundestag does have authority and control on foreign missions. But then they said....the rules apply 'in-general'
Then, the Court defined this one exception: "In case of emergency, the federal government is exceptionally entitled provisionally to decide alone the use." Other than informing the Bundestag immediately.....with the prescribed course and use of action....subsequent approval is not always necessary.
In this case, the Green Party lost. And some unwritten rule of the Bundestag has been enhanced or modified....without a lot of frustrated political folks in the middle.
New Polling Data
Oddly, today....Focus (the German news magazine) came out with a poll that they ran against the German public. Two significant questions with a really different numbering scheme.
On the question of whether the public agrees with Merkel's refugee strategy....forty-eight-percent said NO, and forty-one-percent said YES, with eleven-percent having no opinion.
On the question of being open toward refugees....it was forty-two percent saying NO (against the refugee situation), and forty-one percent saying YES (they were happy with the refugee situation).
Vastly different from the state-run TV news polling? Yes. From three weeks ago....they were still talking about a eighty-percent favorable situation with Germans liking the refugees. With that angle, they just couldn't understand why that last twenty-percent were holding out and being anti-refugee.
With the Focus numbers.....they even found that one out of three Germans were completely supportive of the Hungarian position taken and support Hungary.
Whose poll might be right? It's hard to say. You can slant a poll a dozen ways and work it into different patterns. Generally, you'd think that the state-run TV folks run a fair poll....at least from past episodes that I've seen.
On the question of whether the public agrees with Merkel's refugee strategy....forty-eight-percent said NO, and forty-one-percent said YES, with eleven-percent having no opinion.
On the question of being open toward refugees....it was forty-two percent saying NO (against the refugee situation), and forty-one percent saying YES (they were happy with the refugee situation).
Vastly different from the state-run TV news polling? Yes. From three weeks ago....they were still talking about a eighty-percent favorable situation with Germans liking the refugees. With that angle, they just couldn't understand why that last twenty-percent were holding out and being anti-refugee.
With the Focus numbers.....they even found that one out of three Germans were completely supportive of the Hungarian position taken and support Hungary.
Whose poll might be right? It's hard to say. You can slant a poll a dozen ways and work it into different patterns. Generally, you'd think that the state-run TV folks run a fair poll....at least from past episodes that I've seen.
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
The Imam Hand-shake or Lack of a Hand-shake
It probably won't get discussed on public-run TV news....but Focus reported it. The CDU chief for Rhineland-Palatinate had a tour recently of a refugee camp.
The political leader....Julia Klockner.....had an open list of people to meet at the camp and one suggestion was the local Imam for the folks there at the camp in Idar-Obserstein. Well, there was some recommendations against the lady meeting with the Imam.
You see....he's pretty strict on women needing to serve their place in the world.....under men. So the camp organizers tried to get her to wipe this meeting off the schedule, and she thought about it....then said that she'd extend her hand to the Imam, and he apparently declined it. So, there's a fair bit of hostility about this event which didn't happen.
Klockner thinks that some law needs to be put into place which demands integration as compulsory....and one of those little pieces of the law ought to be that people realize they have to live in a man-woman world.
There are a thousand things you could do and people would just overlook your issue....at least that's my perception in Germany. But one of those little things that they don't overlook is a hand stretched out and you refuse to shake it. And if your logical answer is that it's a woman extending the handshake....well.....you've screwed up big-time.
The traction that she got off this screw-up by the Imam? There will likely be some type of integration law on the books by summer of 2016, and it'll conflict with the Imam's perception of reality.
The political leader....Julia Klockner.....had an open list of people to meet at the camp and one suggestion was the local Imam for the folks there at the camp in Idar-Obserstein. Well, there was some recommendations against the lady meeting with the Imam.
You see....he's pretty strict on women needing to serve their place in the world.....under men. So the camp organizers tried to get her to wipe this meeting off the schedule, and she thought about it....then said that she'd extend her hand to the Imam, and he apparently declined it. So, there's a fair bit of hostility about this event which didn't happen.
Klockner thinks that some law needs to be put into place which demands integration as compulsory....and one of those little pieces of the law ought to be that people realize they have to live in a man-woman world.
There are a thousand things you could do and people would just overlook your issue....at least that's my perception in Germany. But one of those little things that they don't overlook is a hand stretched out and you refuse to shake it. And if your logical answer is that it's a woman extending the handshake....well.....you've screwed up big-time.
The traction that she got off this screw-up by the Imam? There will likely be some type of integration law on the books by summer of 2016, and it'll conflict with the Imam's perception of reality.
Monday, September 21, 2015
The Cost Story
The Daily Mail out of England....had an interesting fact that they put up on the cost of immigration in Europe.
There's this Japanese investment bank....Mizuho....which tends to analyze things to the ninth degree. So they took up the idea of what it really costs for a nation to handle a refugee.
They came to a single basic calculation of 12,500 Euro for each refugee to cover food, shelter, medical attention, support, and logistical support, for each single year.
Using the number that the Germans toss around of one million refugees a year over the next two years.....this all comes out to roughly twenty-five billion Euro.
One should note, as you read through the simple analysis.....that only assumes the number doesn't escalate in 2016, and that this whole mess ends by spring of 2017. So far, I haven't seen anyone really explain why it'd stay at the same level and not escalate....or explain the magical way that it'd all calm down by spring of 2017.
The effect on Germans if they knew it was twenty-five billion Euro? Well, that'd probably set them into a daze....making them ask about the pay-back and how this would be funded. You should note in the calculations....that there is no mention of the housing requirements that would have to be built (some say 450,000 units per year), and that would lay on top of the twenty-five billion Euro.
There's this Japanese investment bank....Mizuho....which tends to analyze things to the ninth degree. So they took up the idea of what it really costs for a nation to handle a refugee.
They came to a single basic calculation of 12,500 Euro for each refugee to cover food, shelter, medical attention, support, and logistical support, for each single year.
Using the number that the Germans toss around of one million refugees a year over the next two years.....this all comes out to roughly twenty-five billion Euro.
One should note, as you read through the simple analysis.....that only assumes the number doesn't escalate in 2016, and that this whole mess ends by spring of 2017. So far, I haven't seen anyone really explain why it'd stay at the same level and not escalate....or explain the magical way that it'd all calm down by spring of 2017.
The effect on Germans if they knew it was twenty-five billion Euro? Well, that'd probably set them into a daze....making them ask about the pay-back and how this would be funded. You should note in the calculations....that there is no mention of the housing requirements that would have to be built (some say 450,000 units per year), and that would lay on top of the twenty-five billion Euro.
Sunday, September 20, 2015
A Micky-D's Organic Beef Burger?
It came out today that in October here in Germany....McDonalds will offer two organic beef burgers. It'll be McB and the Long-McB.
It's an odd deal. Germans are hyped up on organic items....I'd take a guess that ten-percent of the population are fairly dedicated to organic items, and at least twenty-percent of society will occasionally buy items which are labeled organic in nature.
So, there's plenty of market support to provide McDonalds the items required for a regular burger....from the beef, to the bun, and to include the various 'other' items. Organic ketchup? Yep. And organic mustard.
Keeping the regular stuff separate from the organic item? Well....I'm guessing it'll be packaged in some way that they don't mix the items.
Profitable? You'd have to sell a fair number of burgers and I doubt if this is more than a product designed like the ribs burger that only comes up one quarter out of the year. Among the obsessed Germans who are dedicated to the organic series.....it might be a curious thing, but I can't see them stopping off for a organic burger more than once a month. It's still loaded with grease and fat, which irks the nutritional side of Germans.
It's an odd deal. Germans are hyped up on organic items....I'd take a guess that ten-percent of the population are fairly dedicated to organic items, and at least twenty-percent of society will occasionally buy items which are labeled organic in nature.
So, there's plenty of market support to provide McDonalds the items required for a regular burger....from the beef, to the bun, and to include the various 'other' items. Organic ketchup? Yep. And organic mustard.
Keeping the regular stuff separate from the organic item? Well....I'm guessing it'll be packaged in some way that they don't mix the items.
Profitable? You'd have to sell a fair number of burgers and I doubt if this is more than a product designed like the ribs burger that only comes up one quarter out of the year. Among the obsessed Germans who are dedicated to the organic series.....it might be a curious thing, but I can't see them stopping off for a organic burger more than once a month. It's still loaded with grease and fat, which irks the nutritional side of Germans.
Saturday, September 19, 2015
Driver's Test Story
This came up yesterday in minor German news....the SPD Party has asked the Ministry of Transportation to arrange for the German driver's test to be conducted in Arabic, to benefit the incoming Syrians.
Presently, there are two methods to the license....for incoming people of all nationalities (outside of the EU).
You can pay a local driver-trainer and he can apply the test in English or German. Generally, this is the most simple way and regarded by most as the most successful way of learning driving skills in Germany. The negative is the cost factor (minimum of a thousand Euro, and it could go up a bit if your skills or understanding is lousy).
The second way is a do-it-yourself deal. You fill out the paperwork and go to the BurgerAmt in your town. This is of course....assuming you are from a country that offers corresponding rights to Germans who come to their country. Most US states offer such a deal, but not all US states. Test? None. But you'd best sit down and read the manual carefully because driving in Germany is hectic and crazy at times.
The SPD angle to this? If you have around half-a-million Syrians who show up in one single year....the driver's license is going to be a major issue.
Translating the test over? I would imagine if they hired two or three Syrian-speakers and were good at German....it'd take less than sixty days to translate the manual and tests over to the new language.
Course, some people might point out that Syrians only make up 30-odd percent of the incoming people. So why don't you offer the others a driving chance via their own language? Well, yeah....it begs questions.
The anti-immigrant crowd? They will question the wisdom of this and simply state that you need to speak, read and write in German....to survive....so why mess around with the testing or study manual? It's the same way with the integration classes....it would beg questions if you flipped the drivers test over and didn't do the same thing with the integration class as well.
The reaction time by the Transport Ministry? This will be put on the research situation and require some smart folks to determine the plus-minus of doing this. You can figure a minimum of six months studying this before they react one way or another. Then you can figure another six months in getting the test/material translated and approved. It won't happen in a quick manner.
Presently, there are two methods to the license....for incoming people of all nationalities (outside of the EU).
You can pay a local driver-trainer and he can apply the test in English or German. Generally, this is the most simple way and regarded by most as the most successful way of learning driving skills in Germany. The negative is the cost factor (minimum of a thousand Euro, and it could go up a bit if your skills or understanding is lousy).
The second way is a do-it-yourself deal. You fill out the paperwork and go to the BurgerAmt in your town. This is of course....assuming you are from a country that offers corresponding rights to Germans who come to their country. Most US states offer such a deal, but not all US states. Test? None. But you'd best sit down and read the manual carefully because driving in Germany is hectic and crazy at times.
The SPD angle to this? If you have around half-a-million Syrians who show up in one single year....the driver's license is going to be a major issue.
Translating the test over? I would imagine if they hired two or three Syrian-speakers and were good at German....it'd take less than sixty days to translate the manual and tests over to the new language.
Course, some people might point out that Syrians only make up 30-odd percent of the incoming people. So why don't you offer the others a driving chance via their own language? Well, yeah....it begs questions.
The anti-immigrant crowd? They will question the wisdom of this and simply state that you need to speak, read and write in German....to survive....so why mess around with the testing or study manual? It's the same way with the integration classes....it would beg questions if you flipped the drivers test over and didn't do the same thing with the integration class as well.
The reaction time by the Transport Ministry? This will be put on the research situation and require some smart folks to determine the plus-minus of doing this. You can figure a minimum of six months studying this before they react one way or another. Then you can figure another six months in getting the test/material translated and approved. It won't happen in a quick manner.
Friday, September 18, 2015
That 3:30 AM Siren
Back around Wednesday morning...my sleep got interrupted by the local air-raid-fire-alarm-siren in my village. Roughly 3:30 AM. It's 45-odd second alarm, which would wake just about everyone in the village up, and get the local fire department guys (all volunteers) to jump up and react to a fire.
From 3:30 AM on.....I was awake. So I lost at least two lousy hours of sleep.
I admit.....in a normal year....between 10PM and 6AM, I'll probably get woke up four or five times. I've gotten used to it and don't whine about as much as I did the first year.
Well, today....I came to find out that they activated the siren.....to get the volunteer fire department to come out and help assist as the first refugees arrived in the village.
Yeah, after hearing the whole explanation.....I just stood there in some disbelief. Four thousand people heard the alarm and I'd take a guess that half of them just never went back to sleep.
What were the volunteer fire guys supposed to do? I assume to help run the gym-turned-into-a-refugee-center......but that's not their real job (all are volunteers). You'd assume that the state government would have guys on the payroll to handle stuff like this....but apparently not. Bundeswehr guys? No.
You'd think in the advanced society....that the city would buy beepers or cellphones for all the fire guys and alert them that way, but we are still on the 1940-type siren to alert the volunteer fire guys to come out and do the job.
Just one of those little things that you shake your head over.
From 3:30 AM on.....I was awake. So I lost at least two lousy hours of sleep.
I admit.....in a normal year....between 10PM and 6AM, I'll probably get woke up four or five times. I've gotten used to it and don't whine about as much as I did the first year.
Well, today....I came to find out that they activated the siren.....to get the volunteer fire department to come out and help assist as the first refugees arrived in the village.
Yeah, after hearing the whole explanation.....I just stood there in some disbelief. Four thousand people heard the alarm and I'd take a guess that half of them just never went back to sleep.
What were the volunteer fire guys supposed to do? I assume to help run the gym-turned-into-a-refugee-center......but that's not their real job (all are volunteers). You'd assume that the state government would have guys on the payroll to handle stuff like this....but apparently not. Bundeswehr guys? No.
You'd think in the advanced society....that the city would buy beepers or cellphones for all the fire guys and alert them that way, but we are still on the 1940-type siren to alert the volunteer fire guys to come out and do the job.
Just one of those little things that you shake your head over.
Why the Syrians are Different
With all the German chat on Syrian refugees.....no one ever sits there and discusses the Syrian mentality and why they are a bit different from Turks, Saudis, Iranians, and Iraqis. So, this is a brief essay to discuss that end of the story.
We are into the fifth decade of Syria being run by a guy named Assad....either "dad" or "junior" (Hafez al-Assad as dad and Bashir al-Assad as junior). Dad took over in 1971 and ran it till 2000 when he passed away.
Bashir wasn't supposed to be sitting in this position....but odd circumstances occurred with Bassel (the older brother). Bassel ended up in a car accident in 1994 and died from injuries in the accident. Bashir was destined to be a eye-doctor and had studied medicine in this field for a number of years....and ended up as the heir-apparent to the guy in charge of Syria.
Majd was the brother after Bashir, and just as a passing bit of information.....he was a bit of a wild guy with some mental issues. He died from a unspecified disease back in 2009.
Some Syrians would say....that the al-Assad family are a bit unusual, fairly well educated, and the glue which holds Syria together. They'd also say that Syrian government politics doesn't leave much room for wild Islamic behavior or civil strife. And they probably all have harsh words about the amount of control required to make the system work in Syria (before ISIS came along).
The one odd thing that one learns after reviewing the past forty-odd years....is that up until 2011....Syria was a pretty stable place (unlike Iraq, Iran, Egypt, or Afghanistan).
Ever since 1946 and the independence period that Syria went through (from France)....the Soviet Union or Russia.....has been somewhat connected to Syria. More so since 1971 when Hafez al-Assad came to power.
The Russians got a port to utilize in the Med, and gave a fair amount of military hardware over to the Syrians.
Oddly, there is this other part to the Syrian-Russian arrangement.....education. Thousands of Syrians over the years, have gotten a visa and gone off to Russia to study. From engineering to medicine.....from journalism to economics....Syrians developed a strong educational background and connection to the Russians.
If you look around Syria today (using 2008 info from Wiki)....there were roughly 2.3 million students in some secondary form of education (technical or university-driven). Industrial and agricultural programs were sprinkled around the nation, along with nursing programs, Medical fields were common, along with construction type skills.
If you bump into a Syrian and discuss the matter....most would claim that Syria had one thing going in a positive way....education. Maybe, it's a personal feeling but they believe it.
While there was a fair amount of dislike by the public against the al-Assad regime.....there is just as much dislike to for the ISIS crowd. To say that they favored some harsh reality of Islam....would be wrong. If anything, over the years....al-Assad's brand of control kept Islam from affecting anyone in some bad way. Everyone practiced the prayers.....went to work...paid taxes....found family life and structure and lived in a modest but comfortable lifestyle.
In a humble way, I would suggest that the Syrians aren't like any of the other Middle Eastern cultures that you might come across. So, you have to be open and observant....they might not be bad neighbors.....considering all the possibilities that develop.
We are into the fifth decade of Syria being run by a guy named Assad....either "dad" or "junior" (Hafez al-Assad as dad and Bashir al-Assad as junior). Dad took over in 1971 and ran it till 2000 when he passed away.
Bashir wasn't supposed to be sitting in this position....but odd circumstances occurred with Bassel (the older brother). Bassel ended up in a car accident in 1994 and died from injuries in the accident. Bashir was destined to be a eye-doctor and had studied medicine in this field for a number of years....and ended up as the heir-apparent to the guy in charge of Syria.
Majd was the brother after Bashir, and just as a passing bit of information.....he was a bit of a wild guy with some mental issues. He died from a unspecified disease back in 2009.
Some Syrians would say....that the al-Assad family are a bit unusual, fairly well educated, and the glue which holds Syria together. They'd also say that Syrian government politics doesn't leave much room for wild Islamic behavior or civil strife. And they probably all have harsh words about the amount of control required to make the system work in Syria (before ISIS came along).
The one odd thing that one learns after reviewing the past forty-odd years....is that up until 2011....Syria was a pretty stable place (unlike Iraq, Iran, Egypt, or Afghanistan).
Ever since 1946 and the independence period that Syria went through (from France)....the Soviet Union or Russia.....has been somewhat connected to Syria. More so since 1971 when Hafez al-Assad came to power.
The Russians got a port to utilize in the Med, and gave a fair amount of military hardware over to the Syrians.
Oddly, there is this other part to the Syrian-Russian arrangement.....education. Thousands of Syrians over the years, have gotten a visa and gone off to Russia to study. From engineering to medicine.....from journalism to economics....Syrians developed a strong educational background and connection to the Russians.
If you look around Syria today (using 2008 info from Wiki)....there were roughly 2.3 million students in some secondary form of education (technical or university-driven). Industrial and agricultural programs were sprinkled around the nation, along with nursing programs, Medical fields were common, along with construction type skills.
If you bump into a Syrian and discuss the matter....most would claim that Syria had one thing going in a positive way....education. Maybe, it's a personal feeling but they believe it.
While there was a fair amount of dislike by the public against the al-Assad regime.....there is just as much dislike to for the ISIS crowd. To say that they favored some harsh reality of Islam....would be wrong. If anything, over the years....al-Assad's brand of control kept Islam from affecting anyone in some bad way. Everyone practiced the prayers.....went to work...paid taxes....found family life and structure and lived in a modest but comfortable lifestyle.
In a humble way, I would suggest that the Syrians aren't like any of the other Middle Eastern cultures that you might come across. So, you have to be open and observant....they might not be bad neighbors.....considering all the possibilities that develop.
Thursday, September 17, 2015
The New Spy-Museum?
Off Finanzen.net (a decent German business page), I noted today that Berlin has a new attraction....a spy-museum.
From what they write....it's mostly like the one in DC. I spent two hours at the DC Spy Museum back 2011. From what I remember.....it was a hefty price to get in (roughly $20) and it was a curious collection of spy items from the cold war. It was briefly interesting, a hefty price, and then you realized about an hour into the walk that you were fairly near the end and asking yourself where the time went.
This Berlin spy-museum? Well....it's supposed to be around 18-Euro, which is a hefty price as well. It might be worth seeing, but here's the thing....Berlin has around 200-odd things worth seeing. Other than Rome or Vienna or Amsterdam.....Berlin is loaded with things to see or do. A guy could spend ten days there and still have dozens of things to accomplish. Adding a spy-museum? Maybe someone thinks it'll draw people, but I doubt it.
From what they write....it's mostly like the one in DC. I spent two hours at the DC Spy Museum back 2011. From what I remember.....it was a hefty price to get in (roughly $20) and it was a curious collection of spy items from the cold war. It was briefly interesting, a hefty price, and then you realized about an hour into the walk that you were fairly near the end and asking yourself where the time went.
This Berlin spy-museum? Well....it's supposed to be around 18-Euro, which is a hefty price as well. It might be worth seeing, but here's the thing....Berlin has around 200-odd things worth seeing. Other than Rome or Vienna or Amsterdam.....Berlin is loaded with things to see or do. A guy could spend ten days there and still have dozens of things to accomplish. Adding a spy-museum? Maybe someone thinks it'll draw people, but I doubt it.
Wellness This and Wellness That
German news media folks on Channel One (ARD) and Two (ZDF) are always fairly desperate to find a new topic to get people hyped and talking of a solution to a newly found problem. Last night, I sat and watched a show which dedicated roughly fifteen minutes to the new phenomenon in Germany....wellness hotels.
For non-Germans, let me explain the concept of wellness hotels. Germans are frustrated and stressed-out people. They need something beyond just a regular old hotel, 3-star dining, and sights to see. They need wellness. This usually means a sauna, a work-out room, a fancy dining experience with a gourmet cook in charge, fine wine, a massage table, some fancy pool, and Budda-like statues in the background. This all adds up to an enhanced (well, they believe it) wellness experience, where you get rid of hostility and annoyances.
As the news folks discovered....anyone can advertise themselves as a wellness hotel....put up some pictures and just say they have a fine wellness hotel. There's no inspections.....no audit agency....and no standards.
To prove the point, they set up some guy's house (a family relative of the reporter is my estimation) who had a nice house with a sauna in the basement......as a wellness hotel. To be honest....it was noted as a one-room hotel. Pictures made it look absolutely fantastic, but it was just a regular house in the end, with some Budda-like statues for wellness looks.
What they wanted to suggest to the public....is that the German government or the commercial side of hotels.....need to set up an audit agency and protect the image of wellness hotels. I sat there in a daze.....thinking we really need more of an audit agency which audits Channel One and Channel Two.....to lessen their workload a bit by letting some reporters go.....and lessen the TV tax a bit. This would help slacken my stress level and make me feel better.
The truth is....out of a hundred Germans over the age of thirty.....less than five actively look for hotels with the wellness statement. Most don't care.....they just want a decent price for whats offered and free-parking for the car (something that is rare these days).
Somewhere out there is some idiot political figure who watched the news piece and is all fired up to create some national task-force to attack the fake or fraud in wellness hotels. Sadly, the same news folks will get hyped up over his campaign and give him time to talk about his enthusiasm for such a change in German life. Yeah, we really need wellness laws.....to fix this and that. Yeah.
For non-Germans, let me explain the concept of wellness hotels. Germans are frustrated and stressed-out people. They need something beyond just a regular old hotel, 3-star dining, and sights to see. They need wellness. This usually means a sauna, a work-out room, a fancy dining experience with a gourmet cook in charge, fine wine, a massage table, some fancy pool, and Budda-like statues in the background. This all adds up to an enhanced (well, they believe it) wellness experience, where you get rid of hostility and annoyances.
As the news folks discovered....anyone can advertise themselves as a wellness hotel....put up some pictures and just say they have a fine wellness hotel. There's no inspections.....no audit agency....and no standards.
To prove the point, they set up some guy's house (a family relative of the reporter is my estimation) who had a nice house with a sauna in the basement......as a wellness hotel. To be honest....it was noted as a one-room hotel. Pictures made it look absolutely fantastic, but it was just a regular house in the end, with some Budda-like statues for wellness looks.
What they wanted to suggest to the public....is that the German government or the commercial side of hotels.....need to set up an audit agency and protect the image of wellness hotels. I sat there in a daze.....thinking we really need more of an audit agency which audits Channel One and Channel Two.....to lessen their workload a bit by letting some reporters go.....and lessen the TV tax a bit. This would help slacken my stress level and make me feel better.
The truth is....out of a hundred Germans over the age of thirty.....less than five actively look for hotels with the wellness statement. Most don't care.....they just want a decent price for whats offered and free-parking for the car (something that is rare these days).
Somewhere out there is some idiot political figure who watched the news piece and is all fired up to create some national task-force to attack the fake or fraud in wellness hotels. Sadly, the same news folks will get hyped up over his campaign and give him time to talk about his enthusiasm for such a change in German life. Yeah, we really need wellness laws.....to fix this and that. Yeah.
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
The Czech Story on ARD
This afternoon (17:51 local time), the ARD (the Channel One state-run TV news media folks) put up another story entitled: "Refugee workers in Eastern Europe be a shame of one's own country".
The news report (in audio) put a number of words into the introduction on their site. The commentary was mostly how Czech and Slovakia helped to stop the German idea of quotas on EU members and how this was supported by a large voting public within each country. But the journalist wanted everyone to know that younger people within both countries are against xenophobic feelings and support the German idea of quotas.
So, the story went up by 17:51 and two comments went quickly into the comments area....one was highly negative about the slant of the story, and the other commentary noted that either you recognize European values or you start an entirely new EU with clearer and more defined rules than what was in place for EU version 1.0.
Then, it happened.
18:18 local time.....barely 27-odd minutes after the story went up.....they shut down the commentary. Moderation issues apparently. The words? Dear users, because of the high number of comments is currently overloaded our moderation. Therefore, this message can not be commented on at the moment. We ask for your understanding. Sincerely The Moderation
Yeah, you have to severely moderate things, or some harsh words get spoken and folks would be accused of hate-commentary. Yeah, that's how slanted the woven-story has become. ARD is almost like a magnet now.....drawing criticism from the public and doing their best to project the story.
The news report (in audio) put a number of words into the introduction on their site. The commentary was mostly how Czech and Slovakia helped to stop the German idea of quotas on EU members and how this was supported by a large voting public within each country. But the journalist wanted everyone to know that younger people within both countries are against xenophobic feelings and support the German idea of quotas.
So, the story went up by 17:51 and two comments went quickly into the comments area....one was highly negative about the slant of the story, and the other commentary noted that either you recognize European values or you start an entirely new EU with clearer and more defined rules than what was in place for EU version 1.0.
Then, it happened.
18:18 local time.....barely 27-odd minutes after the story went up.....they shut down the commentary. Moderation issues apparently. The words? Dear users, because of the high number of comments is currently overloaded our moderation. Therefore, this message can not be commented on at the moment. We ask for your understanding. Sincerely The Moderation
Yeah, you have to severely moderate things, or some harsh words get spoken and folks would be accused of hate-commentary. Yeah, that's how slanted the woven-story has become. ARD is almost like a magnet now.....drawing criticism from the public and doing their best to project the story.
The Mallorca Story
One of the things that an American comes to realize about life in Europe....is the control or strong nature of oversight of alcohol usage. It kinda differs from state to state.
In Germany, as long as you aren't driving....there's a fairly open view about alcohol. Even at the age of fifteen.....you can buy wine or beer. If a guy gets a bit drunk down on the walkplatz.....people generally don't say too many bad things about it, unless of course he is urinating against a wall or just laying on the street.
Germans for the most part, control their inhibitions and monitor their consumption of booze to some degree. Well....up until the party where they've departed Germany....for their vacation. For most vacation hot-spots...they might drink a bit more than normal.
Places like Crete and Rhodos.....will see some Germans who drink a fair amount more than normal. It's probably true in Turkey, Cyprus, and the Canary Islands as well.
Then you come to the isle of Mallorca (off the coast of Spain), which is considered the 17th German state of Germany....where a lot of Germans frequent, and drink excessively.
For several decades, it's been a fact that Germans come to Mallorca to party, drink hard, and wake up tomorrow morning to repeat the whole experience....for a week straight.
Mallorca was legendary in some ways. It's the place where the Ballermann club defined heavy drinking by selling you a bucket (full size bucket) with Sangria and ice.....and a couple of straws. You and a couple of friends would sip a lot of Sangria wine out of the bucket, then buy another bucket and repeat the experience again, over and over. Guys were totally drunk by mid-afternoon, and stayed drunk till after the clubs closed.
At some point over the past decade....enough folks in Mallorca got upset about the status and wanted drinking curtailed. Oddly, a change in government occurred, and the new guys actually carried out their threat to curtail massive alcohol consumption. Big shocker? Yeah, especially to the Germans.
The bucket of Sangria has been generally banned unless you are sitting inside the club itself. Authorities don't want people walking around anymore, with the bucket in their hand.
There's a good introduction article to the change up over at Focus (the German news magazine), and it relates the problems associated with this.
The chief issue? Less booze consumed....less profits....some nightclubs and pubs are failing. That profit would sustain the community and the isle....is decreasing week after week. In some ways, Mallorca got exactly what they wanted....a lot less booze drunken by customers and visitors. That booze related to cash flow and jobs.
Eventually, some Germans will look over the change and make a determination....why vacation in Mallorca? Some other folks looking at this....from various Greek islands suffering from marginalized tourism or cash flow.....will decide to advertise themselves as the new Mallorca. It might take five years or even ten.....but I suspect that Mallorca will see some great loss on capitalism, and the flight of thousands to the next big tourist magnet for Germans will occur.
In Germany, as long as you aren't driving....there's a fairly open view about alcohol. Even at the age of fifteen.....you can buy wine or beer. If a guy gets a bit drunk down on the walkplatz.....people generally don't say too many bad things about it, unless of course he is urinating against a wall or just laying on the street.
Germans for the most part, control their inhibitions and monitor their consumption of booze to some degree. Well....up until the party where they've departed Germany....for their vacation. For most vacation hot-spots...they might drink a bit more than normal.
Places like Crete and Rhodos.....will see some Germans who drink a fair amount more than normal. It's probably true in Turkey, Cyprus, and the Canary Islands as well.
Then you come to the isle of Mallorca (off the coast of Spain), which is considered the 17th German state of Germany....where a lot of Germans frequent, and drink excessively.
For several decades, it's been a fact that Germans come to Mallorca to party, drink hard, and wake up tomorrow morning to repeat the whole experience....for a week straight.
Mallorca was legendary in some ways. It's the place where the Ballermann club defined heavy drinking by selling you a bucket (full size bucket) with Sangria and ice.....and a couple of straws. You and a couple of friends would sip a lot of Sangria wine out of the bucket, then buy another bucket and repeat the experience again, over and over. Guys were totally drunk by mid-afternoon, and stayed drunk till after the clubs closed.
At some point over the past decade....enough folks in Mallorca got upset about the status and wanted drinking curtailed. Oddly, a change in government occurred, and the new guys actually carried out their threat to curtail massive alcohol consumption. Big shocker? Yeah, especially to the Germans.
The bucket of Sangria has been generally banned unless you are sitting inside the club itself. Authorities don't want people walking around anymore, with the bucket in their hand.
There's a good introduction article to the change up over at Focus (the German news magazine), and it relates the problems associated with this.
The chief issue? Less booze consumed....less profits....some nightclubs and pubs are failing. That profit would sustain the community and the isle....is decreasing week after week. In some ways, Mallorca got exactly what they wanted....a lot less booze drunken by customers and visitors. That booze related to cash flow and jobs.
Eventually, some Germans will look over the change and make a determination....why vacation in Mallorca? Some other folks looking at this....from various Greek islands suffering from marginalized tourism or cash flow.....will decide to advertise themselves as the new Mallorca. It might take five years or even ten.....but I suspect that Mallorca will see some great loss on capitalism, and the flight of thousands to the next big tourist magnet for Germans will occur.
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
German Movie Action
For the last two weeks.....Channel One (ARD) here in Germany has been advertising a ARD-produced movie for tonight. The topic? It's a fictional story of the German Chancellor tripping and knocking herself in the head.....then having amnesia.
Entitled: The Skater.
No, it's NOT a comedy like you'd expect in the US. It's some dramatic piece, at least by German standards.
An American would note after a couple of years.....there's a list of interesting topics for public-run TV movies and there's a list of forbidden topics. Science fiction never occur (never-ever). Cowboy westerns never occur. Love-romance movies probably make up twenty-five percent of the production schedule. Murder mysteries probably take up fifty percent. Historical pieces are rare if ever.....but typically revolve around the 1960s, and in some rare cases....prior to 1914.
The Skater will probably trigger some debate over health rules and when it's mandatory for the Chancellor to retire. In the Bundestag.....your position is determined by the political party, and they could just ease you out with a simple party vote if they felt your health was a problem.
Entertainment? Well.....don't worry. There's roughly twenty-five channels you can check out and there's always something else to watch. I'd take a guess out of eighty million residents....less than a million will watch this movie..
Entitled: The Skater.
No, it's NOT a comedy like you'd expect in the US. It's some dramatic piece, at least by German standards.
An American would note after a couple of years.....there's a list of interesting topics for public-run TV movies and there's a list of forbidden topics. Science fiction never occur (never-ever). Cowboy westerns never occur. Love-romance movies probably make up twenty-five percent of the production schedule. Murder mysteries probably take up fifty percent. Historical pieces are rare if ever.....but typically revolve around the 1960s, and in some rare cases....prior to 1914.
The Skater will probably trigger some debate over health rules and when it's mandatory for the Chancellor to retire. In the Bundestag.....your position is determined by the political party, and they could just ease you out with a simple party vote if they felt your health was a problem.
Entertainment? Well.....don't worry. There's roughly twenty-five channels you can check out and there's always something else to watch. I'd take a guess out of eighty million residents....less than a million will watch this movie..
Another Fake Cop Episode in Wiesbaden
Since I arrived in the summer of 2013.....I'd take a guess that roughly fifteen fake cop episodes have occurred in Wiesbaden.
Typically, it's a foreign tourist that they try the fake-cop routine upon.
This time.....was a German (older guy) from Marburg on this past Saturday morning near the square in Wiesbaden's Kochbrunnen. Two guys approached....dark clothing....and noted they needed to perform a security check on him. No uniform....just some flashed badge.
By the time they finished their review of his billfold and he "woke-up" to check his billfold.....he was 200 Euro less.
It's almost comical now. These guys walk around a zone of roughly one square kilometer in the trendy area of Wiesbaden. Sometimes.....they go for an entire month or two, with no reported action....then you get this one report.
I'm waiting one day.....where I'm just walking around and taking pictures in the midst of town, and two dimwits approach me in civilian clothing and flashing some badge. I'd really like to jump the two guys.....but with my luck....it'll be two real cops in undercover clothing and I'll have to call the wife because I assaulted two cops downtown.
Typically, it's a foreign tourist that they try the fake-cop routine upon.
This time.....was a German (older guy) from Marburg on this past Saturday morning near the square in Wiesbaden's Kochbrunnen. Two guys approached....dark clothing....and noted they needed to perform a security check on him. No uniform....just some flashed badge.
By the time they finished their review of his billfold and he "woke-up" to check his billfold.....he was 200 Euro less.
It's almost comical now. These guys walk around a zone of roughly one square kilometer in the trendy area of Wiesbaden. Sometimes.....they go for an entire month or two, with no reported action....then you get this one report.
I'm waiting one day.....where I'm just walking around and taking pictures in the midst of town, and two dimwits approach me in civilian clothing and flashing some badge. I'd really like to jump the two guys.....but with my luck....it'll be two real cops in undercover clothing and I'll have to call the wife because I assaulted two cops downtown.
A Free Trip to Berlin, In Some Ways
Somewhere across the city spectrum of Germany over the past month or two....expenditures of city funding for refugee requirements have finally gotten the attention of money managers and leadership. It's to the point, that Berlin has agreed to host a special emergency meeting.....with 300 mayors, district administrators, and political folks.
The chief item of discussion.....how to funnel funding faster to the cities and pay them what they've spent.
Presently, Sigmar Gabriel (the Vice-Chancellor and big-wig of the SPD Party) has been fairly enthusiastic about this meeting and getting some results.
The general comment spoken by some journalists today is that in 2015.....some cities have already spent a fair amount of money and they need 'replacement funding' now. This idea.....isn't exactly supported by most politicians. I suspect that it'd put the budget for the remaining weeks of the year into a tight fix, with a lot of borrowing.
Generally, there's a feeling by some that there was this Berlin attitude about this having no cost on anyone. The job of handling the crisis....was dumped mostly onto state governments. None of the states stood up and said it ought to be a centralized situation and one German agency running it with buckets of funding from their own pot. It's almost like going back to the early 1800s when it was 300 separate cities, individual countries, or kingdoms in existence and just pretending there is no German national state.
So the gain of this 300-visitor episode to Berlin? Pictures taken with the big guys.....lots of chat.....and a chance to voice complaints. Otherwise? Nothing. Just a free trip to Berlin.
The chief item of discussion.....how to funnel funding faster to the cities and pay them what they've spent.
Presently, Sigmar Gabriel (the Vice-Chancellor and big-wig of the SPD Party) has been fairly enthusiastic about this meeting and getting some results.
The general comment spoken by some journalists today is that in 2015.....some cities have already spent a fair amount of money and they need 'replacement funding' now. This idea.....isn't exactly supported by most politicians. I suspect that it'd put the budget for the remaining weeks of the year into a tight fix, with a lot of borrowing.
Generally, there's a feeling by some that there was this Berlin attitude about this having no cost on anyone. The job of handling the crisis....was dumped mostly onto state governments. None of the states stood up and said it ought to be a centralized situation and one German agency running it with buckets of funding from their own pot. It's almost like going back to the early 1800s when it was 300 separate cities, individual countries, or kingdoms in existence and just pretending there is no German national state.
So the gain of this 300-visitor episode to Berlin? Pictures taken with the big guys.....lots of chat.....and a chance to voice complaints. Otherwise? Nothing. Just a free trip to Berlin.
A Ton of Enthusiasm
Focus (the German news magazine) carried an interesting piece on comments by Daimler's CEO....Dieter Zetsche.
He's looked at the refugee crisis, and come to this conclusion about how this might change things. He says there's enthusiasm by these refugees walking in....they want to be here and they want to be part of Germany's success story. He's more positive on this episode, than negative.
In his sphere of thinking....he agrees, there probably are no rocket-scientists among this massive group of potentially a million people. But it's hard to make up for enthusiasm, and that's the one key ingredient that these people bring.
Focus mentions near the end of the piece.....roughly 40,000 apprentice positions were unfilled in the last year or two.....at least several studies have suggested this.
I agree on the enthusiasm comment. You can't go out and find this one key ingredient with most people. Most Germans didn't walk 2,000 kilometers this past summer to reach Germany. Most Germans didn't deal with a harsh environment or the threat made against their family. Most Germans didn't didn't climb into a leaking boat and hoped it stayed sea-worthy for twelve hours while they crossed the sea. Most Germans didn't camp out for forty-odd days and suffer through rain-storms with no real cover.
The issue though.....when months go by and you finally get out of the camp and get to the first real point of integration or reality.....and that job is a stock-shelf guy at some grocery.....will the enthusiasm continue on? Some people will get job training and find occupations that fulfill their greatest dream. Some people will wake up in two years and ask why they came. You'd hope for success in this situation, but it's hard to say how this ends.
He's looked at the refugee crisis, and come to this conclusion about how this might change things. He says there's enthusiasm by these refugees walking in....they want to be here and they want to be part of Germany's success story. He's more positive on this episode, than negative.
In his sphere of thinking....he agrees, there probably are no rocket-scientists among this massive group of potentially a million people. But it's hard to make up for enthusiasm, and that's the one key ingredient that these people bring.
Focus mentions near the end of the piece.....roughly 40,000 apprentice positions were unfilled in the last year or two.....at least several studies have suggested this.
I agree on the enthusiasm comment. You can't go out and find this one key ingredient with most people. Most Germans didn't walk 2,000 kilometers this past summer to reach Germany. Most Germans didn't deal with a harsh environment or the threat made against their family. Most Germans didn't didn't climb into a leaking boat and hoped it stayed sea-worthy for twelve hours while they crossed the sea. Most Germans didn't camp out for forty-odd days and suffer through rain-storms with no real cover.
The issue though.....when months go by and you finally get out of the camp and get to the first real point of integration or reality.....and that job is a stock-shelf guy at some grocery.....will the enthusiasm continue on? Some people will get job training and find occupations that fulfill their greatest dream. Some people will wake up in two years and ask why they came. You'd hope for success in this situation, but it's hard to say how this ends.
Germany and Facebook
Facebook finally concluded a meeting with the German Justice Ministry yesterday. The end-result? They said two things. First....Facebook agreed to join a German group called FSM (translated to Voluntary Self-Censorship Service Provider) which has two missions.....internet security and ending racism on the internet. The other big item is that Facebook agreed to hook up with the German government theme of 'counter-speech'.
For those who aren't familiar with counter-speech.....this is where you use a method of argument to fight racism or xenophobia or just about anything (if you think about it) through massive discussion (the kind that goes on and on and on). Counter-speech usually involves dumping facts in massive quantity (usually cherry-picked), belittling the opposite argument with every possible angle, and using facial expressions and hand movements to suggest that "you really mean what you say".
The meeting basically gave some cover for Facebook to continue saying that it's an open media system and just wants to make everyone happy. It gives some cover for the chief German prosecutor to say that they've pushed Facebook around and gotten them to change. If you think about what was said or done within their joint statement.....it was mostly nothing of value.
One might anticipate some episode occurring in the future where Facebook dumps all of their noted violators to the Justice Ministry, and they use the Sedition Act to bring them into court. Course, just bringing a dozen-odd people won't work, and when it gets into thousands.....they will do a massive campaign....likely resulting in hundreds of thousands of people quitting Facebook in Germany. Facebook realizes the potential threat, but we are headed to an odd thing....the 1984-environment of Germany.....where there's only one opinion and you are either in the circle or outside the circle.
When social media arrived....no one stood there at the gate and asked any stupid questions. It was a chat-line....where everyone could enter....chat....and just leave comments. We never had such a "toy" before. It doesn't matter where you go....people utilize the social media world to express their opinions, and sometimes....it's not pretty. The effort to moderate? Who exactly is deputized to moderate and just how harsh of a world do you want....if significant moderation is a daily thing within your little world?
My guess is that complaints will stack up by next summer, and the Facebook crowd will be invited back for another round with the German Justice Ministry. Eventually, some connection will occur where the Ministry has their own moderators attached to Facebook. If you think things are messed up now.....just wait....it'll get stranger.
For those who aren't familiar with counter-speech.....this is where you use a method of argument to fight racism or xenophobia or just about anything (if you think about it) through massive discussion (the kind that goes on and on and on). Counter-speech usually involves dumping facts in massive quantity (usually cherry-picked), belittling the opposite argument with every possible angle, and using facial expressions and hand movements to suggest that "you really mean what you say".
The meeting basically gave some cover for Facebook to continue saying that it's an open media system and just wants to make everyone happy. It gives some cover for the chief German prosecutor to say that they've pushed Facebook around and gotten them to change. If you think about what was said or done within their joint statement.....it was mostly nothing of value.
One might anticipate some episode occurring in the future where Facebook dumps all of their noted violators to the Justice Ministry, and they use the Sedition Act to bring them into court. Course, just bringing a dozen-odd people won't work, and when it gets into thousands.....they will do a massive campaign....likely resulting in hundreds of thousands of people quitting Facebook in Germany. Facebook realizes the potential threat, but we are headed to an odd thing....the 1984-environment of Germany.....where there's only one opinion and you are either in the circle or outside the circle.
When social media arrived....no one stood there at the gate and asked any stupid questions. It was a chat-line....where everyone could enter....chat....and just leave comments. We never had such a "toy" before. It doesn't matter where you go....people utilize the social media world to express their opinions, and sometimes....it's not pretty. The effort to moderate? Who exactly is deputized to moderate and just how harsh of a world do you want....if significant moderation is a daily thing within your little world?
My guess is that complaints will stack up by next summer, and the Facebook crowd will be invited back for another round with the German Justice Ministry. Eventually, some connection will occur where the Ministry has their own moderators attached to Facebook. If you think things are messed up now.....just wait....it'll get stranger.
Monday, September 14, 2015
Small Talk
Over the weekend, without saying much in advance, my German village (which shall remain nameless)....flipped the town sports hall (a fairly decent sized building with a big basketball court), into a refugee center.
What the news folks say is that the Bundeswehr (German Army) arrived with a couple of guys, and a number of volunteers from the town.....and put together the bunk beds.
There's three sports buildings in the region which got converted over the weekend.....all adding up to around 800 bunks. I'd take a guess that my local village sports hall could probably hold 200 bunks....at best.
What is generally said is that this is overflow room, and when adequate 'other' facilities are found.....folks will float out of this temporary deal. They intend to shuttle some of these folks in the near future to other towns in Hessen.
Reaction? No one is saying that much. There's probably some grumbling but since it was worded as a temporary deal....folks might accept that. If the facility is still up and running in the spring of 2016....there might be more than just grumbling.
The problem is that Munich has used up every inch of space, and the other German states now have to contribute, and take in some folks.....even if in big open sports halls....it's better than sitting around a train-station.
There just isn't space around Germany for one-million-odd people to float into and expect some half-way decent living accommodations. Maybe as folks get denied 'visa-status' and sent back to their home country....some of the massive numbers will decrease, but you just aren't seeing that yet. The split of Syrians to the one-million? Unknown. That's one of those fifty-odd things which the government doesn't ever chat about or show statistical displays.
What the news folks say is that the Bundeswehr (German Army) arrived with a couple of guys, and a number of volunteers from the town.....and put together the bunk beds.
There's three sports buildings in the region which got converted over the weekend.....all adding up to around 800 bunks. I'd take a guess that my local village sports hall could probably hold 200 bunks....at best.
What is generally said is that this is overflow room, and when adequate 'other' facilities are found.....folks will float out of this temporary deal. They intend to shuttle some of these folks in the near future to other towns in Hessen.
Reaction? No one is saying that much. There's probably some grumbling but since it was worded as a temporary deal....folks might accept that. If the facility is still up and running in the spring of 2016....there might be more than just grumbling.
The problem is that Munich has used up every inch of space, and the other German states now have to contribute, and take in some folks.....even if in big open sports halls....it's better than sitting around a train-station.
There just isn't space around Germany for one-million-odd people to float into and expect some half-way decent living accommodations. Maybe as folks get denied 'visa-status' and sent back to their home country....some of the massive numbers will decrease, but you just aren't seeing that yet. The split of Syrians to the one-million? Unknown. That's one of those fifty-odd things which the government doesn't ever chat about or show statistical displays.
German News Story
I sat this weekend and watched the German 'culture' channel (public-run). They ran the normal news of the day (the 8:00PM episode) from 12 Sep 1995 (twenty years ago). It was interesting watching the way that news was bundled up and delivered to the German public in 1995, versus today.
First, there's a stoic and simplified reading of the news....straight from the script. They were truly 'readers' and not selling you the news as you see today.
Second, if there was video in the story....it was just the clip itself (video) and no audio commentary from some guy on the scene in Madrid or Egypt.....like you get today.
Third, it was pure raw news, laced with some facts, and no slanted angles. In today's German national news....especially from the state-run TV crowd....they want to explain the situation and give you a slant of some type for almost every story.
Fourth, the guy from 1995 really didn't care if he was dressed in style or not. He was dressed in something that looked like an old guy's suit from the early 1980s. Today, they wouldn't let anyone on camera unless they looked 'classy'.
Fifth, the weather was 30 seconds max and just barely gave you some indication of what the majority of Germans would see tomorrow for weather.
Sixth and final, no flashy graphics or other wording on the screen.....just some guy's simple words connecting you to the story.
Frankly, I like the 1995-version of the news and wish they'd deliver that instead of the geeky and slanted version of today.
First, there's a stoic and simplified reading of the news....straight from the script. They were truly 'readers' and not selling you the news as you see today.
Second, if there was video in the story....it was just the clip itself (video) and no audio commentary from some guy on the scene in Madrid or Egypt.....like you get today.
Third, it was pure raw news, laced with some facts, and no slanted angles. In today's German national news....especially from the state-run TV crowd....they want to explain the situation and give you a slant of some type for almost every story.
Fourth, the guy from 1995 really didn't care if he was dressed in style or not. He was dressed in something that looked like an old guy's suit from the early 1980s. Today, they wouldn't let anyone on camera unless they looked 'classy'.
Fifth, the weather was 30 seconds max and just barely gave you some indication of what the majority of Germans would see tomorrow for weather.
Sixth and final, no flashy graphics or other wording on the screen.....just some guy's simple words connecting you to the story.
Frankly, I like the 1995-version of the news and wish they'd deliver that instead of the geeky and slanted version of today.
Would Have Been An Interesting Event
It was probably one of those events that I would have paid money to just stand there and watch events unfold.
At some point over the weekend, down in Pontoise, France....there was a Muslim conference being held. Normally, there wouldn't be much for press coverage to see or cover. This event took a twist.
At some point....two topless ladies jumped up on the stage and did a confrontation with the Muslim guys. I'm guessing of the 1,000-odd things that a Muslim guy might expect to happen during his normal day....this would have been off the charts.
The gals were activists....some extreme feminist outfit called Femen. Their words were: “Nobody makes me submit” written across their boobs.
The shouts before they were dragged off? “Nobody makes me submit, me nobody owns me, I’m my own prophet!”
One of the folks observing the episode....simply noted by the end....things were getting a bit violent, and the Muslim guys didn't have much patience left in them.
If you sit down and look up the more violent feminist episodes....the last two years have been building up with more and more acts.....at least across Europe. They've hit the Catholics, the Russians, and dozens of oddball events. Generally, you'd have to say that these ladies are fairly pumped up.
At some point over the weekend, down in Pontoise, France....there was a Muslim conference being held. Normally, there wouldn't be much for press coverage to see or cover. This event took a twist.
At some point....two topless ladies jumped up on the stage and did a confrontation with the Muslim guys. I'm guessing of the 1,000-odd things that a Muslim guy might expect to happen during his normal day....this would have been off the charts.
The gals were activists....some extreme feminist outfit called Femen. Their words were: “Nobody makes me submit” written across their boobs.
The shouts before they were dragged off? “Nobody makes me submit, me nobody owns me, I’m my own prophet!”
One of the folks observing the episode....simply noted by the end....things were getting a bit violent, and the Muslim guys didn't have much patience left in them.
If you sit down and look up the more violent feminist episodes....the last two years have been building up with more and more acts.....at least across Europe. They've hit the Catholics, the Russians, and dozens of oddball events. Generally, you'd have to say that these ladies are fairly pumped up.
Sunday, September 13, 2015
The Sunday Border Control Announcement in Germany
The German Interior Ministry came out this afternoon (17:30 local) and announced that they were putting temporary border controls back into place. Based on the way that the way that the statement was made.....they intent to bulk up the region in the south.....between Bavaria and Austria. There's also the hint that trains will be stopped and passengers will be asked for passports.
The Passauer Neue Presse (a Bavarian newspaper) said that the federal authorities will checking the trains going from Bavaria into Austria.
News reports say that Bavaria has requested 21 squadrons of the federal cops. I spent a half hour looking up the typical manpower of a German police squadron, but there's not much information on how it relates to number. A number US Air Force SP squadron would be roughly 120-personnel, so I would assume the same for the German cops. As for approval for the Bavarian request? Nothing, and it might take a week for the Berlin folks figure up the cost and how they would send these folks down to Bavaria (hotel cost alone would be in the 7-figure range a month easily.
This border change episode? It's being applied as a temporary measure. No one says it'll be permanent.
The potential success rate? Zero.
If you were a refugee and walking across the border.....you'd survey the Goggle map on your cellphone and pick a walking path without much access to civilization or urban areas. There are literally hundreds of such paths in Bavaria....giving you access to Austria. You pick such a path, and the odds are....whatever border guards are around.....will be near the autobahn or major roads. It'll take less than two weeks for the public to realize that this border control announcement was just a public relations thing, and has very little impact on stopping people.
How many personnel would it take to run an effective border situation? I'd take an educated guess that it would get into the 10,000 range on top of the present border force....very easily, and the German federal government would not be so willing to put this much time, effort and funding into such a matter.
The Passauer Neue Presse (a Bavarian newspaper) said that the federal authorities will checking the trains going from Bavaria into Austria.
News reports say that Bavaria has requested 21 squadrons of the federal cops. I spent a half hour looking up the typical manpower of a German police squadron, but there's not much information on how it relates to number. A number US Air Force SP squadron would be roughly 120-personnel, so I would assume the same for the German cops. As for approval for the Bavarian request? Nothing, and it might take a week for the Berlin folks figure up the cost and how they would send these folks down to Bavaria (hotel cost alone would be in the 7-figure range a month easily.
This border change episode? It's being applied as a temporary measure. No one says it'll be permanent.
The potential success rate? Zero.
If you were a refugee and walking across the border.....you'd survey the Goggle map on your cellphone and pick a walking path without much access to civilization or urban areas. There are literally hundreds of such paths in Bavaria....giving you access to Austria. You pick such a path, and the odds are....whatever border guards are around.....will be near the autobahn or major roads. It'll take less than two weeks for the public to realize that this border control announcement was just a public relations thing, and has very little impact on stopping people.
How many personnel would it take to run an effective border situation? I'd take an educated guess that it would get into the 10,000 range on top of the present border force....very easily, and the German federal government would not be so willing to put this much time, effort and funding into such a matter.
A Spiraling Weekend
There's an emergency meeting set in Bavaria this afternoon (Sunday) at 4PM. What the news media is saying is that the Bavarian cabinet will meet with the Prime Minister (Horst Seehofer) to determine some course of action....probably to start on Monday morning. My guess is that the meeting will end between 6 and 7 PM, and a major statement by Seehofer will occur.
The authorities in Munich say that roughly 13,000 refugees and asylum seekers will taken in for Saturday. Most of the analysis by news groups indicate that it's simply an open-door....with no one in Bavaria seeing some closure or downward trend.
The chief comment this morning in the German news by the Munich mayor (Dieter Reiter) revolves around the words "bitterly disappointed". There's no rescue coming from the Berlin crowd, and each day brings more refugees into Munich. Oddly, the only brief ray of sunshine for Munich was the arrival of eight buses from North Rhine-Westphalia which took 400 people north and out of Munich. That was it....eight buses.
The 19th in Munich was supposed to be the opening of the Octoberfest, and a major deal for city tourism, tax revenue collection, profits for local vendors, and full hotels for roughly three weeks. I would imagine that people are now asking stupid questions and wondering how all of this will affect the Octoberfest.
ARD says that an emergency tent project is underway over at the Bundeswehr University area....on the southeast end of Munich....with several massive tents going up on Bundeswehr property. No one talks numbers....just saying "large-scale" in terms of operations. This is on top of an operation being carved out on the Olympic park on the northwest side of the city.
If you look at the current strategy by Munich....it's simply to provide cover from the weather and provide some sanitary conditions for the large crowds arriving by the hour in the city. None of these are really developed for long-term usage. One gets the impression that Munich figured that the federal folks out of Berlin would have created a bigger strategy with buses coming in and picking up people by the hour, and shuttling them to dozens of cities around Germany with realistic long-term accommodations.
In some ways, as much as kindness and compassion was exercised....planning and real strategic thinking was more or less left as something for a much later period.
The three key elements of fixing this?
One. Someone with rank or title....needs to be appointed and act as the national authority on this issue until it subsides (probably a year or two down the line). It's not an Interior Minister project any longer....it's way beyond that level. You need someone with executive background, military time, and massive authority to use funding, resources, and state property. It'll likely be a person fired within six months because the Berlin crowd is unhappy with the massive amount of authority they handed the person....but the reality is that actions need to happen now of a massive nature.
Two. The approval/disapproval process to visas need to be fixed....not in months or weeks....but in a matter of days. If the approval authority (currently at 550-odd employees, with a recent bump up with another 2,000)....need a full-force of 6,000 employees....hire them, this week. Bring in other state employees or Bundeswehr members to sit at the desks and accomplish the work required. The idea of a potential group of 150,000 refugees sitting around for five months to get disapproved....makes sense....then something is really screwed up within the German system. It should not take more than two or three weeks to review the paperwork, ensure the ID, and make a decision. If accepted, fine.....if disapproved, lead the person out within twenty-four hours.
Three. If you can't convince the EU on quotas....then your whole strategy is screwed-up. You need to reassign a whole new strategy and get real serious about the border in a matter of weeks. Just opening up autobahn passport check-points is just one-percent of the work required. You'd have to hire thousands of new people to maintain the integrity of the border.....if you intend to keep concept of a border. My humble guess is that the twenty-eight members of the EU....might discuss quotas, but we are talking about a couple thousand people a year max, and that won't help in the present circumstances.
The authorities in Munich say that roughly 13,000 refugees and asylum seekers will taken in for Saturday. Most of the analysis by news groups indicate that it's simply an open-door....with no one in Bavaria seeing some closure or downward trend.
The chief comment this morning in the German news by the Munich mayor (Dieter Reiter) revolves around the words "bitterly disappointed". There's no rescue coming from the Berlin crowd, and each day brings more refugees into Munich. Oddly, the only brief ray of sunshine for Munich was the arrival of eight buses from North Rhine-Westphalia which took 400 people north and out of Munich. That was it....eight buses.
The 19th in Munich was supposed to be the opening of the Octoberfest, and a major deal for city tourism, tax revenue collection, profits for local vendors, and full hotels for roughly three weeks. I would imagine that people are now asking stupid questions and wondering how all of this will affect the Octoberfest.
ARD says that an emergency tent project is underway over at the Bundeswehr University area....on the southeast end of Munich....with several massive tents going up on Bundeswehr property. No one talks numbers....just saying "large-scale" in terms of operations. This is on top of an operation being carved out on the Olympic park on the northwest side of the city.
If you look at the current strategy by Munich....it's simply to provide cover from the weather and provide some sanitary conditions for the large crowds arriving by the hour in the city. None of these are really developed for long-term usage. One gets the impression that Munich figured that the federal folks out of Berlin would have created a bigger strategy with buses coming in and picking up people by the hour, and shuttling them to dozens of cities around Germany with realistic long-term accommodations.
In some ways, as much as kindness and compassion was exercised....planning and real strategic thinking was more or less left as something for a much later period.
The three key elements of fixing this?
One. Someone with rank or title....needs to be appointed and act as the national authority on this issue until it subsides (probably a year or two down the line). It's not an Interior Minister project any longer....it's way beyond that level. You need someone with executive background, military time, and massive authority to use funding, resources, and state property. It'll likely be a person fired within six months because the Berlin crowd is unhappy with the massive amount of authority they handed the person....but the reality is that actions need to happen now of a massive nature.
Two. The approval/disapproval process to visas need to be fixed....not in months or weeks....but in a matter of days. If the approval authority (currently at 550-odd employees, with a recent bump up with another 2,000)....need a full-force of 6,000 employees....hire them, this week. Bring in other state employees or Bundeswehr members to sit at the desks and accomplish the work required. The idea of a potential group of 150,000 refugees sitting around for five months to get disapproved....makes sense....then something is really screwed up within the German system. It should not take more than two or three weeks to review the paperwork, ensure the ID, and make a decision. If accepted, fine.....if disapproved, lead the person out within twenty-four hours.
Three. If you can't convince the EU on quotas....then your whole strategy is screwed-up. You need to reassign a whole new strategy and get real serious about the border in a matter of weeks. Just opening up autobahn passport check-points is just one-percent of the work required. You'd have to hire thousands of new people to maintain the integrity of the border.....if you intend to keep concept of a border. My humble guess is that the twenty-eight members of the EU....might discuss quotas, but we are talking about a couple thousand people a year max, and that won't help in the present circumstances.
Saturday, September 12, 2015
Was There Ever Really a Border?
Once upon a time (I always like how these essays go).....there was a border in Germany....to be precise....West Germany or the Federal Republic of Germany.
Older folks (both American and German) can remember this period. A fairly decent fencing system and thousands of DDR troops had a eastern border covered, and there were border-entry points for the north, south and west of West Germany.
You entered Germany via a border point.....usually showing a passport or military ID with your NATO form, and proceeded on. You might have shown up on a Sunday night with large lines gathered and spent an hour getting through the border point....but it was a border.
Prior to WW II.....the border points existed. If you go back to the late 1800s.....any significant road that led into Germany had some Prussian border-control guys standing there.
The truth of the matter is that even in the 1980s....if you wanted to sneak into Germany without the passport business, it was possible. You'd take a trail through the woods....hike around for an hour....and bypass any check-point.
Ever since the EU came into being....the strategy has been to downgrade borders and just say they exist on a map but there's no realistic reason for protecting the physical border. I can drive over to Luxembourg....cross a bridge....fill up with cheap gas....and drive back. German customs folks might sneak around and do spot checks on cheap Lux booze or smokes that I buy, and they will get peppy if they see I've got a dozen gas-can's in the car (way over the acceptable limit). Beyond the customs folks....there's no real urgent threat.
I crossed the German border a few weeks ago, entering from the Netherlands. There was the old border station....sitting on the side of the autobahn. It's in haphazard shape and obviously unused for two decades now.
Some reality has awaken the German population and I suspect at least half of the population are asking themselves some stupid questions about the border situation. There's obviously no control and no real border around the country. A thousand Chinese folks could start marching from Asia....cross over Russia, and simply walk all the way up to the Brandenburg Gate of Berlin today. It might take four months, but it's a pretty safe situation because you know there's no real border for Germany today.
I'm of the mind that borders are a thing of the mind, or a reality within the map world. Beyond that....it's hard to imagine a border meaning anything unless there's a fence or a wall to say that this area is protected. If you want to cross some border.....you just make up your mind and just start walking.
Maybe this current crisis in Germany will shape into some public debate about the border and what it really means. Maybe the public will reshape political figures and journalists with a different view of what a border ought to mean. Maybe borders do matter, in the sense of a nation existing in one form or another.
Older folks (both American and German) can remember this period. A fairly decent fencing system and thousands of DDR troops had a eastern border covered, and there were border-entry points for the north, south and west of West Germany.
You entered Germany via a border point.....usually showing a passport or military ID with your NATO form, and proceeded on. You might have shown up on a Sunday night with large lines gathered and spent an hour getting through the border point....but it was a border.
Prior to WW II.....the border points existed. If you go back to the late 1800s.....any significant road that led into Germany had some Prussian border-control guys standing there.
The truth of the matter is that even in the 1980s....if you wanted to sneak into Germany without the passport business, it was possible. You'd take a trail through the woods....hike around for an hour....and bypass any check-point.
Ever since the EU came into being....the strategy has been to downgrade borders and just say they exist on a map but there's no realistic reason for protecting the physical border. I can drive over to Luxembourg....cross a bridge....fill up with cheap gas....and drive back. German customs folks might sneak around and do spot checks on cheap Lux booze or smokes that I buy, and they will get peppy if they see I've got a dozen gas-can's in the car (way over the acceptable limit). Beyond the customs folks....there's no real urgent threat.
I crossed the German border a few weeks ago, entering from the Netherlands. There was the old border station....sitting on the side of the autobahn. It's in haphazard shape and obviously unused for two decades now.
Some reality has awaken the German population and I suspect at least half of the population are asking themselves some stupid questions about the border situation. There's obviously no control and no real border around the country. A thousand Chinese folks could start marching from Asia....cross over Russia, and simply walk all the way up to the Brandenburg Gate of Berlin today. It might take four months, but it's a pretty safe situation because you know there's no real border for Germany today.
I'm of the mind that borders are a thing of the mind, or a reality within the map world. Beyond that....it's hard to imagine a border meaning anything unless there's a fence or a wall to say that this area is protected. If you want to cross some border.....you just make up your mind and just start walking.
Maybe this current crisis in Germany will shape into some public debate about the border and what it really means. Maybe the public will reshape political figures and journalists with a different view of what a border ought to mean. Maybe borders do matter, in the sense of a nation existing in one form or another.
The CSU Story
There are several events which occurred yesterday which might have serious impact on German politics in the near future.
The former German Interior Minister....Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU)....did an interview with a Bavarian newspaper. He used the words "blunder", "long-term consequences" and "lost control" in describing the effect of the current German government. He blamed the Berlin leadership for failing to recognize the threat....potential Islamic sleepers within this large refugee crowd....who might threaten the security of Germany.
As quickly as the comments got into the public....both the CDU and SPD folks out of Berlin were quick to criticize Friedrich, along with various news media journalists.
One should note that Friedrich was fired by Chancellor Merkel roughly two years ago. The circumstance? He knew of an investigation into a kid-porn situation with a SPD political figure, and briefed the SPD leadership. When this got out....the news media quickly jumped on this, and the Chancellor felt that a right to privacy had been done wrong by his actions.
Oddly, another CSU member....the Bavarian Finance Minister (Markus Soder) also did an interview with a Bavarian newspaper....also criticizing the Berlin leadership over the crisis.
Then the big event occurred.....the Prime Minister of Bavarian....Horst Seehofer (CSU) announced on Friday that he'd invited the head of state for Hungary to visit this weekend in Bavaria and discuss the crisis. Hungary and Bavaria border each other and there's some feeling that they share the same anxiety.
This Seehofer-Orbin event promises to end with some joint statement. It might be curious what is agreed upon and how it might be a thorn in the side of the current CDU-CSU-SPD government.
Here's the thing....the current government comes from the 2013 election. It's difficult for Americans to grasp how this all fits. So I'll try to make it simple.
There are two right-wing-leaning parties in Germany. The CDU works primarily out of fifteen German states. The CSU works strictly out of Bavaria. They are considered sister parties and have been such for fifty-odd years. There's a unwritten rule that the CDU doesn't organize in Bavaria and the CSU doesn't organize beyond the borders of Bavaria. They each have a political head.
So, when elections occur....they normally walk in the front-door together. In 2013....the CDU pulled 37-percent of the national vote, and the CSU pulled 8-percent of the national vote (all from Bavaria).
If you asked what the difference was between the two....Germans would say there's little difference. In truth though....the CSU of Bavaria have a deeper convictions to leaning right than the national CDU folks. So in regional politics....it's seen that way in Bavaria. When the CSU joins up with the CDU in national politics....their policies are diluted in some minor ways....but they get to run a cabinet post or two, because they are part of the majority team (as is the SPD).
I think what the CSU is laying down on the table is a trump card. While the German state-run TV news crowd has tried say the negativity over refugees is mostly from eastern Germany....I suspect if you walked around Bavaria....more than fifty percent of the public there questions the positive nature of this crisis, and doesn't believe this will go well in the end. The CSU has grasped the political play, and are going to intimidate the Berlin crowd.
Seehofer and Orbin could end up with some actions, which get Berlin upset....with Seehofer forced into meeting Merkel and being told to stay near the current strategy. Seehofer might sense a different strategy and say the CSU is prepared to leave the cabinet and the Merkel coalition. It's not a big deal because Merkel has the SPD within the group and she's got the majority to run the government.
But there's this odd factor.....there's three state elections in March of 2016. The states of Sachsen-Anhalt, Baden-Wurttemberg, and the Pfalz all have elections on the same day. What would be odd is if the CSU went with an opposition to Chancellor Merkel, and decided that they would register in the three states, and run the CSU-Party apparatus in the three state elections.....standing up one single party which had opposition to the current refugee situation.
It would be difficult to predict how the public would react in the three states (two in the west and one in the east). Would the CSU subtract votes from the CDU? Would some SPD members vote for the CSU in this one election to just send a message? These are virtual unknowns. Other than the AfD Party.....no other political party has suggested opposition to the current strategy.
This weekend Seehofer/Orbin meeting might have more implications than people think.
The former German Interior Minister....Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU)....did an interview with a Bavarian newspaper. He used the words "blunder", "long-term consequences" and "lost control" in describing the effect of the current German government. He blamed the Berlin leadership for failing to recognize the threat....potential Islamic sleepers within this large refugee crowd....who might threaten the security of Germany.
As quickly as the comments got into the public....both the CDU and SPD folks out of Berlin were quick to criticize Friedrich, along with various news media journalists.
One should note that Friedrich was fired by Chancellor Merkel roughly two years ago. The circumstance? He knew of an investigation into a kid-porn situation with a SPD political figure, and briefed the SPD leadership. When this got out....the news media quickly jumped on this, and the Chancellor felt that a right to privacy had been done wrong by his actions.
Oddly, another CSU member....the Bavarian Finance Minister (Markus Soder) also did an interview with a Bavarian newspaper....also criticizing the Berlin leadership over the crisis.
Then the big event occurred.....the Prime Minister of Bavarian....Horst Seehofer (CSU) announced on Friday that he'd invited the head of state for Hungary to visit this weekend in Bavaria and discuss the crisis. Hungary and Bavaria border each other and there's some feeling that they share the same anxiety.
This Seehofer-Orbin event promises to end with some joint statement. It might be curious what is agreed upon and how it might be a thorn in the side of the current CDU-CSU-SPD government.
Here's the thing....the current government comes from the 2013 election. It's difficult for Americans to grasp how this all fits. So I'll try to make it simple.
There are two right-wing-leaning parties in Germany. The CDU works primarily out of fifteen German states. The CSU works strictly out of Bavaria. They are considered sister parties and have been such for fifty-odd years. There's a unwritten rule that the CDU doesn't organize in Bavaria and the CSU doesn't organize beyond the borders of Bavaria. They each have a political head.
So, when elections occur....they normally walk in the front-door together. In 2013....the CDU pulled 37-percent of the national vote, and the CSU pulled 8-percent of the national vote (all from Bavaria).
If you asked what the difference was between the two....Germans would say there's little difference. In truth though....the CSU of Bavaria have a deeper convictions to leaning right than the national CDU folks. So in regional politics....it's seen that way in Bavaria. When the CSU joins up with the CDU in national politics....their policies are diluted in some minor ways....but they get to run a cabinet post or two, because they are part of the majority team (as is the SPD).
I think what the CSU is laying down on the table is a trump card. While the German state-run TV news crowd has tried say the negativity over refugees is mostly from eastern Germany....I suspect if you walked around Bavaria....more than fifty percent of the public there questions the positive nature of this crisis, and doesn't believe this will go well in the end. The CSU has grasped the political play, and are going to intimidate the Berlin crowd.
Seehofer and Orbin could end up with some actions, which get Berlin upset....with Seehofer forced into meeting Merkel and being told to stay near the current strategy. Seehofer might sense a different strategy and say the CSU is prepared to leave the cabinet and the Merkel coalition. It's not a big deal because Merkel has the SPD within the group and she's got the majority to run the government.
But there's this odd factor.....there's three state elections in March of 2016. The states of Sachsen-Anhalt, Baden-Wurttemberg, and the Pfalz all have elections on the same day. What would be odd is if the CSU went with an opposition to Chancellor Merkel, and decided that they would register in the three states, and run the CSU-Party apparatus in the three state elections.....standing up one single party which had opposition to the current refugee situation.
It would be difficult to predict how the public would react in the three states (two in the west and one in the east). Would the CSU subtract votes from the CDU? Would some SPD members vote for the CSU in this one election to just send a message? These are virtual unknowns. Other than the AfD Party.....no other political party has suggested opposition to the current strategy.
This weekend Seehofer/Orbin meeting might have more implications than people think.
Friday, September 11, 2015
The Bike Story
A few weeks ago, I wrote a brief essay over state funding here in Hessen being available for bike trails. The state was opening the door and getting a topic that Green Party enthusiasts would support easily.
Today, HR (the regional TV network in Hessen), chatted up on this new idea....twenty-odd pedestrian or bike paths....totaling 8.4 million Euro that would represent a major 'trail' in the region for commuters.
The idea? A trail established between Frankfurt and Darmstadt. It's roughly twenty miles or twenty-eight kilometers.
The idea in present form is to open up a path that would lead into Sachsenhausen (the 'burb' on the southside of the river to Frankfurt).
The amount of time to develop this? This was the curious part to the story....they envision it taking ten years. It's hard to figure why it'd take this long other than they'd only be getting a small chunk of money from the state folks for each year. That might the simplicity of the problem. For a two-meter wide path...most of which already exists....it's hard to figure why a decade is figured into this.
Presently, if you wanted to bike from Darmstadt to Frankfurt, it'd take most of five hours on a bike (it's not exactly a planned trail, paved only in certain areas and you aren't supposed to use sidewalks for biking).
The concept put out there....would be dedicated concrete/asphalt trails where you could pedal along at a fair amount of speed. It should be noted in various studies....that most cyclists (on a straight and ungraded path), can make up to around fifteen kilometers per hour.
What I'd envision is various towns between Frankfurt and Darmstadt....connecting to this path via their own grants or city funding, and it'd open the door for significant usage in the decade to come....maybe several thousand people using it in the spring or summer months.
If the Frankfurt group got the go-ahead, I'd go and predict that some Wiesbaden group would accomplish a study and find a way to run a thirty-five kilometer route between Wiesbaden and Frankfurt....affecting ten regional towns between the two, and getting a fair amount of enthusiasm for a paved bike trail as well.
Today, HR (the regional TV network in Hessen), chatted up on this new idea....twenty-odd pedestrian or bike paths....totaling 8.4 million Euro that would represent a major 'trail' in the region for commuters.
The idea? A trail established between Frankfurt and Darmstadt. It's roughly twenty miles or twenty-eight kilometers.
The idea in present form is to open up a path that would lead into Sachsenhausen (the 'burb' on the southside of the river to Frankfurt).
The amount of time to develop this? This was the curious part to the story....they envision it taking ten years. It's hard to figure why it'd take this long other than they'd only be getting a small chunk of money from the state folks for each year. That might the simplicity of the problem. For a two-meter wide path...most of which already exists....it's hard to figure why a decade is figured into this.
Presently, if you wanted to bike from Darmstadt to Frankfurt, it'd take most of five hours on a bike (it's not exactly a planned trail, paved only in certain areas and you aren't supposed to use sidewalks for biking).
The concept put out there....would be dedicated concrete/asphalt trails where you could pedal along at a fair amount of speed. It should be noted in various studies....that most cyclists (on a straight and ungraded path), can make up to around fifteen kilometers per hour.
What I'd envision is various towns between Frankfurt and Darmstadt....connecting to this path via their own grants or city funding, and it'd open the door for significant usage in the decade to come....maybe several thousand people using it in the spring or summer months.
If the Frankfurt group got the go-ahead, I'd go and predict that some Wiesbaden group would accomplish a study and find a way to run a thirty-five kilometer route between Wiesbaden and Frankfurt....affecting ten regional towns between the two, and getting a fair amount of enthusiasm for a paved bike trail as well.
Just Some Questions
Generally, on these German public-run TV news and political chat forums....the public doesn't get a chance to stand there and ask stupid questions. It's left to the news journalists, political players, and intellectural crowd. It's one of the obvious shortfalls of German society. You get a dose of information that people feel you are capable of handling or you need to just accept.
Regarding the current crisis episode on immigration, asylum and refugees....I have this top eleven list of stupid questions that might be worth asking.
1. Just how far and wide has the message of an 'open-door' existing in Germany been viewed? Is it true that people as far away as the Sudan, Uganda, Myanmar, and Bangladesh have gotten the message and assembling a plan to make their way to the Med, and onto Greece? Does this allow for another million-odd refugees to fit into the future plans beyond 2015?
2. While predicting this 850,000 number for 2015 right now, and people now realistically talking one million entering.....what about for all of 2016 coming up? Is it possible because of the enthusiasm going on now....that the 2016 number will be 1.5 million? And would 2017 show the same enthusiasm....for a million-plus potential arrivals?
3. If we did a poll right now and put fear factor up and incoming immigrant groups up....splitting them into state groups (Bulgaria, Romania, Ethiopia, Syria, Afghanistan, etc).....which groups are the German public more afraid of? Might the Syrians be the lesser of evils on this list by some odd view of the public? Would the German government even want to admit that there is a different standing on refugee groups?
4. If the current unemployment rate is around five to six percent....where exactly will these mythical jobs that the state-run news journalists talk about....come from? People continually talk about the older generation retiring in the coming years....will you be forceably retiring them in 2016 so the new folks will have jobs? Across the country....are there really 300,000 jobs just sitting there?
5. When you finally do come to a EU agreement on dispersing tens of thousands of the one-million to other EU states....what exactly do you think the refugee standing there and anticipating Germany as his pick will say or do....when he is suddenly told to pack and prepare for Ireland or Poland? If he doesn't want to go.....will you use gentle force or just friendly German persuasion?
6.. For the two-hundred-odd-thousand migrants that you might accept but have no background, job training or anything beyond basic schooling....are you prepared for a three-year program to bring them skills and certifications....and then an eventual job?
7. If the French somehow figure a way to work the war against ISIS and actually bring about their demise.....what exactly do you think the majority of Syrians here will do? Will they stay or return home?
8. Could it be that the long-anticipated end to the Solidarity tax might be postponed (2019) and the tax continue on....as the chief way of supporting this refugee program?
9. Does the border or the principle of having a border.....really matter anymore? Should the border just be an idea....more than a physical thing?
10. If the nation is united, why does the state-run TV crowd still do polling efforts to show a division in the country between westies and easties? If you pursued the polling data in an effective way....would the Bavarians also have an different view than the folks in the northern part of the country? What is the public reaction to Channel One and Two (ARD and ZDF)? Has any public enthusiasm been lost in recent weeks with the way that the immigration stories have been told? Would the guy on the street have a different view than most journalists?
11. Will accusations of sedition during the state election period in the spring of 2016 help to control political discussions and ensure a quiet election period?
Regarding the current crisis episode on immigration, asylum and refugees....I have this top eleven list of stupid questions that might be worth asking.
1. Just how far and wide has the message of an 'open-door' existing in Germany been viewed? Is it true that people as far away as the Sudan, Uganda, Myanmar, and Bangladesh have gotten the message and assembling a plan to make their way to the Med, and onto Greece? Does this allow for another million-odd refugees to fit into the future plans beyond 2015?
2. While predicting this 850,000 number for 2015 right now, and people now realistically talking one million entering.....what about for all of 2016 coming up? Is it possible because of the enthusiasm going on now....that the 2016 number will be 1.5 million? And would 2017 show the same enthusiasm....for a million-plus potential arrivals?
3. If we did a poll right now and put fear factor up and incoming immigrant groups up....splitting them into state groups (Bulgaria, Romania, Ethiopia, Syria, Afghanistan, etc).....which groups are the German public more afraid of? Might the Syrians be the lesser of evils on this list by some odd view of the public? Would the German government even want to admit that there is a different standing on refugee groups?
4. If the current unemployment rate is around five to six percent....where exactly will these mythical jobs that the state-run news journalists talk about....come from? People continually talk about the older generation retiring in the coming years....will you be forceably retiring them in 2016 so the new folks will have jobs? Across the country....are there really 300,000 jobs just sitting there?
5. When you finally do come to a EU agreement on dispersing tens of thousands of the one-million to other EU states....what exactly do you think the refugee standing there and anticipating Germany as his pick will say or do....when he is suddenly told to pack and prepare for Ireland or Poland? If he doesn't want to go.....will you use gentle force or just friendly German persuasion?
6.. For the two-hundred-odd-thousand migrants that you might accept but have no background, job training or anything beyond basic schooling....are you prepared for a three-year program to bring them skills and certifications....and then an eventual job?
7. If the French somehow figure a way to work the war against ISIS and actually bring about their demise.....what exactly do you think the majority of Syrians here will do? Will they stay or return home?
8. Could it be that the long-anticipated end to the Solidarity tax might be postponed (2019) and the tax continue on....as the chief way of supporting this refugee program?
9. Does the border or the principle of having a border.....really matter anymore? Should the border just be an idea....more than a physical thing?
10. If the nation is united, why does the state-run TV crowd still do polling efforts to show a division in the country between westies and easties? If you pursued the polling data in an effective way....would the Bavarians also have an different view than the folks in the northern part of the country? What is the public reaction to Channel One and Two (ARD and ZDF)? Has any public enthusiasm been lost in recent weeks with the way that the immigration stories have been told? Would the guy on the street have a different view than most journalists?
11. Will accusations of sedition during the state election period in the spring of 2016 help to control political discussions and ensure a quiet election period?
Sedition in Germany and Til
The explanation of the accusation against Til Schweiger for sedition?
This got laid out late yesterday by some report connected to 'Focus', the German news magazine. What they say is that there was a change to the criminal code back in late January of this year (27 Jan 2015 to be precise).
The act of sedition now reads that sedition is any person in a way that is likely to disturb the public peace against a national, racial, religious or ethnic origin of their group against parts of the population or against an individual because of his membership of a group aforementioned or any part of the population to incite hatred, violence or arbitrary measures.
The sedition change then prescribes the punishment.....three months to five years of prison.
What triggered the change to the law? That's not clear. Germany had used the old reference for the law back in 2013 to charge a 74-year-old retiree of making statements against Islam. The end result....a conviction....while the prosecutor wanted the old gal thrown into jail for ninety days....the judge opted for three years of probation and a thousand Euro fine.
If you read the definition carefully....you can only use sedition against an event that involves religion, ethnical background, race, or nationality. If you were using harsh words or talk to condemn capitalism or urge riots against the EU Bank in Frankfurt.....it wouldn't fall under sedition....even though you were inciting a group to riot against the public structure. You could use harsh words against the cops after a major riot at some soccer game, but that wouldn't involve four key elements of sedition....so the cops couldn't charge you with sedition and inciting a riot.
Sedition, under most country laws....has to deal more with talking against the government....rather than an individual. In this case....the law was shaped to fit the individual.
You could state you were against a certain religion, but if your words were valued to be words of hate or suggesting violence against the group....you'd be dragged into court. Oddly, you could use a religious event to discuss non-believers and condemn them to 'hell'....but I doubt if the legal guys of the German court system would utilize that suggestion for sedition. If the non-believers reacted to the threat of 'hell' and a riot ensued....well, that would be different and they'd be forced into some stupid position of protecting the sedition law.
Confusing? Yeah. Luckily, no one really believes that Til is in much trouble, and other than getting him on some rant and all upset to the tenth degree (rather than the ninth degree)....there's not much else to say about this episode. It'll quietly end by Christmas and everyone will simply move on.
This got laid out late yesterday by some report connected to 'Focus', the German news magazine. What they say is that there was a change to the criminal code back in late January of this year (27 Jan 2015 to be precise).
The act of sedition now reads that sedition is any person in a way that is likely to disturb the public peace against a national, racial, religious or ethnic origin of their group against parts of the population or against an individual because of his membership of a group aforementioned or any part of the population to incite hatred, violence or arbitrary measures.
The sedition change then prescribes the punishment.....three months to five years of prison.
What triggered the change to the law? That's not clear. Germany had used the old reference for the law back in 2013 to charge a 74-year-old retiree of making statements against Islam. The end result....a conviction....while the prosecutor wanted the old gal thrown into jail for ninety days....the judge opted for three years of probation and a thousand Euro fine.
If you read the definition carefully....you can only use sedition against an event that involves religion, ethnical background, race, or nationality. If you were using harsh words or talk to condemn capitalism or urge riots against the EU Bank in Frankfurt.....it wouldn't fall under sedition....even though you were inciting a group to riot against the public structure. You could use harsh words against the cops after a major riot at some soccer game, but that wouldn't involve four key elements of sedition....so the cops couldn't charge you with sedition and inciting a riot.
Sedition, under most country laws....has to deal more with talking against the government....rather than an individual. In this case....the law was shaped to fit the individual.
You could state you were against a certain religion, but if your words were valued to be words of hate or suggesting violence against the group....you'd be dragged into court. Oddly, you could use a religious event to discuss non-believers and condemn them to 'hell'....but I doubt if the legal guys of the German court system would utilize that suggestion for sedition. If the non-believers reacted to the threat of 'hell' and a riot ensued....well, that would be different and they'd be forced into some stupid position of protecting the sedition law.
Confusing? Yeah. Luckily, no one really believes that Til is in much trouble, and other than getting him on some rant and all upset to the tenth degree (rather than the ninth degree)....there's not much else to say about this episode. It'll quietly end by Christmas and everyone will simply move on.
Polling That Conflicts
A couple of weeks ago.....the political show "Politbarometer" which appears on ZDF (Channel Two).....did up a poll asking if Germans felt the immigration episode was acceptable. Their poll at the time was eighty-percent in favor of the current refugee program in Germany, with twenty-percent negative.
Today, there's a ARD poll for another political chat show (Channel One), which asked the question if Germans felt safe around the new immigrates or refugees. The result was 61-percent feeling safe, and 39-percent who felt unsafe. Naturally, they wanted you to know that it was big difference between former east Germany and the western side of the country (43-percent of the easties said they felt unsafe, while 36-percent of the westies felt unsafe).
When you look at the two polls....while the questions are slightly different in wording....it's a big difference. One poll tries to say that the massive bulk of German society is accepting the situation......the other poll asks about the safety factor and you top out at roughly sixty-percent. That's a twenty-point difference....which is a fairly big difference if you sit and ponder upon the numbers game (the draw of a poll in the first place).
ARD didn't finish at that question though....they asked a second question....has your life changed since the immigration or refugee crisis begun? Eighty-one percent said nothing had changed....life was the same. Roughly seventeen percent said some small element of their life had changed.....although there's no listing as to how. One might be curious what these people felt. Then they came to the crowd who said they were absolutely affected in a negative way.....totaling roughly two-percent (an awful low number).
I looked at the polling data that ARD used.....roughly 1,020 people. It's probably a decent poll, but they don't explain where in the country or percentages from state to state that were involved. It should be noted that the polling took place between 7 and 9 PM.
As for commentary under the ARD page with the story? Well, that's an interesting piece as well. The moderators allowed roughly seventy comments so far....of which I'd say about ninety-percent are negative about the use of the poll....questioning the methods used to produce the poll.....and saying that among their neighbors, it's a big difference from their view of things.
Near the end of the commentary area...was this one comment that concerned the 1.5 million illiterate German people and how they probably weren't approached or used for the polling data. Years ago, I had a professor for a German history class that got into the brief discussion of illiteracy in Germany. On the books....Germans usually say that it's like one-tenth of one-percent of the nation which is illiterate....meaning unable to read or comprehend. Generally, if you set the posts higher and simply asked how many Germans read or comprehend below the fifth-grade level....it might be near one percent (I won't cite reports or studies, but simply the act of walking around and observing the public at large). I might suggest that it's better off that you don't use the illiterate crowd in surveys because it'd really screw up the final product or acceptance of the data.
The impact of these polling episodes? The news folks believe that it's reinforcing the message that they are sending out. The real poll? In March of 2016, there's three state elections in Germany, and it'll be curious how the three play out. If the AfD folks came out with a harsh view of the refugee episode and thirty-one percent of a state's voters went to them.....it'd really flip the narrative of the state-run news media. You'd have to spend days and days explaining how this occurred and the potential difference in what they've been saying for months.
Today, there's a ARD poll for another political chat show (Channel One), which asked the question if Germans felt safe around the new immigrates or refugees. The result was 61-percent feeling safe, and 39-percent who felt unsafe. Naturally, they wanted you to know that it was big difference between former east Germany and the western side of the country (43-percent of the easties said they felt unsafe, while 36-percent of the westies felt unsafe).
When you look at the two polls....while the questions are slightly different in wording....it's a big difference. One poll tries to say that the massive bulk of German society is accepting the situation......the other poll asks about the safety factor and you top out at roughly sixty-percent. That's a twenty-point difference....which is a fairly big difference if you sit and ponder upon the numbers game (the draw of a poll in the first place).
ARD didn't finish at that question though....they asked a second question....has your life changed since the immigration or refugee crisis begun? Eighty-one percent said nothing had changed....life was the same. Roughly seventeen percent said some small element of their life had changed.....although there's no listing as to how. One might be curious what these people felt. Then they came to the crowd who said they were absolutely affected in a negative way.....totaling roughly two-percent (an awful low number).
I looked at the polling data that ARD used.....roughly 1,020 people. It's probably a decent poll, but they don't explain where in the country or percentages from state to state that were involved. It should be noted that the polling took place between 7 and 9 PM.
As for commentary under the ARD page with the story? Well, that's an interesting piece as well. The moderators allowed roughly seventy comments so far....of which I'd say about ninety-percent are negative about the use of the poll....questioning the methods used to produce the poll.....and saying that among their neighbors, it's a big difference from their view of things.
Near the end of the commentary area...was this one comment that concerned the 1.5 million illiterate German people and how they probably weren't approached or used for the polling data. Years ago, I had a professor for a German history class that got into the brief discussion of illiteracy in Germany. On the books....Germans usually say that it's like one-tenth of one-percent of the nation which is illiterate....meaning unable to read or comprehend. Generally, if you set the posts higher and simply asked how many Germans read or comprehend below the fifth-grade level....it might be near one percent (I won't cite reports or studies, but simply the act of walking around and observing the public at large). I might suggest that it's better off that you don't use the illiterate crowd in surveys because it'd really screw up the final product or acceptance of the data.
The impact of these polling episodes? The news folks believe that it's reinforcing the message that they are sending out. The real poll? In March of 2016, there's three state elections in Germany, and it'll be curious how the three play out. If the AfD folks came out with a harsh view of the refugee episode and thirty-one percent of a state's voters went to them.....it'd really flip the narrative of the state-run news media. You'd have to spend days and days explaining how this occurred and the potential difference in what they've been saying for months.
The Religious Story
'Focus', the German news magazine....put up a brief article this morning, with an odd story over the refugees and 'other' religious groups active in recruitment.
Naturally, most people expect the Salafists to be active, and recruiting in a soft-handed manner. But after a couple of years of civil war and the mess created by ISIS....most Syrians will be skeptical of the Salafists and their message.
It's the other two groups mentioned in the article that gets your attention. Jehovah's Witnesses and Scientology. Their angle?
The Jehovah's Witnesses claim that since the Catholic Church is active around the immigration centers....they ought to have the same right at 'recruitment'. The refugee center (based in the Stuttgart area) examined the facts and quickly put the Jehovah's Witness folks back a step or two. First, the Catholic Church is merely running a charity distribution deal (clothing, toys, emergency needs, etc). Second, the immigration center was not about to engage or allow others to engage in ideological warfare within its boundary.
Scientology? What's been said is that Scientology has set up stands on the streets of Stuttgart and handed out literature (note, nowhere on the immigration center grounds). It would be safe to say that almost no Syrian has ever heard of Scientology....so naturally as a newcomer to a land and having these wonderfully and cheerfully motivated people stand and explain things.....you ask questions. I'm only guessing here....but I'd surmise that the literature came back into the immigration center grounds and got discussed. Eventually, someone went to the front desk and asked stupid questions and it got the attention of the staff rather quickly.
I should note....after confronted....Scientology immediately noted that they weren't actively recruiting any Syrian.....just handing out literature and explaining the religion. On a public street in Germany, with a permit....this is legal.
A smart guy would stand back and ponder upon this picture. A lot of people.....not just from Syria, but from all walks of life....are fairly naive and are seeing things under a different light for the first time in their life. It's a curious nature. Sadly, when you talk of integration into Germany....there's no "get-smart" type of class where oddball things like this get explained.
As an American, I can probably think of a thousand things in Germany that should have been explained in some detail upon my various arrivals in the country. Eventually, you figure these things out, but it takes a while.
Naturally, most people expect the Salafists to be active, and recruiting in a soft-handed manner. But after a couple of years of civil war and the mess created by ISIS....most Syrians will be skeptical of the Salafists and their message.
It's the other two groups mentioned in the article that gets your attention. Jehovah's Witnesses and Scientology. Their angle?
The Jehovah's Witnesses claim that since the Catholic Church is active around the immigration centers....they ought to have the same right at 'recruitment'. The refugee center (based in the Stuttgart area) examined the facts and quickly put the Jehovah's Witness folks back a step or two. First, the Catholic Church is merely running a charity distribution deal (clothing, toys, emergency needs, etc). Second, the immigration center was not about to engage or allow others to engage in ideological warfare within its boundary.
Scientology? What's been said is that Scientology has set up stands on the streets of Stuttgart and handed out literature (note, nowhere on the immigration center grounds). It would be safe to say that almost no Syrian has ever heard of Scientology....so naturally as a newcomer to a land and having these wonderfully and cheerfully motivated people stand and explain things.....you ask questions. I'm only guessing here....but I'd surmise that the literature came back into the immigration center grounds and got discussed. Eventually, someone went to the front desk and asked stupid questions and it got the attention of the staff rather quickly.
I should note....after confronted....Scientology immediately noted that they weren't actively recruiting any Syrian.....just handing out literature and explaining the religion. On a public street in Germany, with a permit....this is legal.
A smart guy would stand back and ponder upon this picture. A lot of people.....not just from Syria, but from all walks of life....are fairly naive and are seeing things under a different light for the first time in their life. It's a curious nature. Sadly, when you talk of integration into Germany....there's no "get-smart" type of class where oddball things like this get explained.
As an American, I can probably think of a thousand things in Germany that should have been explained in some detail upon my various arrivals in the country. Eventually, you figure these things out, but it takes a while.
Fake Passport Story
Not really a shocker. The Tagespiegel newspaper came up in the last day or two and via the German finance ministry....that Bulgaria had seized this box of 10,000 fake Syrian passports.
Destination? Germany.
The deal? It's mostly speculation. They say it was supposed to 'for sale' among non-Syrians who wanted the status given to Syrians coming in (war refugees).
Value of the box? Unknown, no one from the finance ministry or Bulgaria wanted to speculate on that. One might take a guess that on the open-market....if you were Iraqi or Pakistani or Afghani....you might have to pay around $1,000 per passport.
Destination? Germany.
The deal? It's mostly speculation. They say it was supposed to 'for sale' among non-Syrians who wanted the status given to Syrians coming in (war refugees).
Value of the box? Unknown, no one from the finance ministry or Bulgaria wanted to speculate on that. One might take a guess that on the open-market....if you were Iraqi or Pakistani or Afghani....you might have to pay around $1,000 per passport.
My humble guess is that the box was worth around $10 million in value. It's the kind of value that you would not take big risks and would have taken precautions to ensure it's shipment and arrival. Somewhere along the way.....someone screwed up big-time.
The potential of ISIS being behind the fake passport scheme? It wouldn't take that much for a couple of guys to figure out the current high rate of acceptance for Syrians and the value of a Syrian passport. You manufacture these, and sell them to some middle-guy for a quarter of the value....allowing the middle guy to take all the risk and arrange shipment and sales into Germany.
The last of the problem? No. There's probably a couple of fake passport groups out there and busy making new and fresh fake passports daily. It'll be a trend that the Germans have to deal with, and have consequences for the fake Syrians along the way.
The potential of ISIS being behind the fake passport scheme? It wouldn't take that much for a couple of guys to figure out the current high rate of acceptance for Syrians and the value of a Syrian passport. You manufacture these, and sell them to some middle-guy for a quarter of the value....allowing the middle guy to take all the risk and arrange shipment and sales into Germany.
The last of the problem? No. There's probably a couple of fake passport groups out there and busy making new and fresh fake passports daily. It'll be a trend that the Germans have to deal with, and have consequences for the fake Syrians along the way.
Germany and the Hint of Moderation
Generally, everything in today's social media world of Germany.....is moderated.
If you make comments on a public-run TV site under a story....it has to be reviewed and moderated....meaning they might allow it to be previewed, or simply deleted. Moderation prevents people from making insults or serious jabs at individuals or government decisions.
Oddly, a couple of weeks ago, the German jumped up and wanted social networks to force everyone to use their real name.
This past week.....if you follow comments by the Chancellor (Merkel).....she actually said that people using their real name.....could fall under sedition action (serious legal trouble) if they used their real name....noting that not only does the state have to react.....but so does the company or media device.
Naturally, she was pointing fingers at Facebook. But then she commented that Facebook does have a code of conduct (few people ever grasp that when they sign up). Then she noted....there was no lack of control or enforcement. In otherwords.....moderation....controlling verbal comments.
Back in August, the Justice Minister sent a letter to the Facebook/Europe Public Policy Director (Richard Allen). It should be noted....Facebook keeps their team in Ireland. The Facebook folks said that they were interested in meeting up with the Justice Minister and have a discussion.
Full-time moderators coming up on Facebook? I kinda doubt it.
If you look over at the "Local".....a German information/news site in English.....they run full-time moderators now. In a number of stories, which have a refugee or immigrant angle.....they've cut off commentary entirely. In fact, the only stories that the Local generally allows full commentary without any moderation....oddly....are sports stories.
Why the need for moderation? There is some belief by German intellectuals and news groups that if you moderate and control commentary by the public.....then there's less aggravated feelings and more acceptance of the message. In simple terms....you put out a message....you allow only certain reactions or comments about your message.....then people think that it's generally accepted. In the former Communist world....the better method was simply to limit news to a few bits and pieces....with almost no message, and you end up with no aggravated feelings.
Where this all goes? It's difficult to predict how this moderation gimmick will play out in the long-run. I'm guessing someone will eventually challenge someone in court, and we will go through a two-year cycle of German judges reviewing moderation and trying to find legal standing for or against it. They might actually hand it back to the Bundestag to pass a law affecting future limits on moderation or allowing full moderation with no limits.
If you make comments on a public-run TV site under a story....it has to be reviewed and moderated....meaning they might allow it to be previewed, or simply deleted. Moderation prevents people from making insults or serious jabs at individuals or government decisions.
Oddly, a couple of weeks ago, the German jumped up and wanted social networks to force everyone to use their real name.
This past week.....if you follow comments by the Chancellor (Merkel).....she actually said that people using their real name.....could fall under sedition action (serious legal trouble) if they used their real name....noting that not only does the state have to react.....but so does the company or media device.
Naturally, she was pointing fingers at Facebook. But then she commented that Facebook does have a code of conduct (few people ever grasp that when they sign up). Then she noted....there was no lack of control or enforcement. In otherwords.....moderation....controlling verbal comments.
Back in August, the Justice Minister sent a letter to the Facebook/Europe Public Policy Director (Richard Allen). It should be noted....Facebook keeps their team in Ireland. The Facebook folks said that they were interested in meeting up with the Justice Minister and have a discussion.
Full-time moderators coming up on Facebook? I kinda doubt it.
If you look over at the "Local".....a German information/news site in English.....they run full-time moderators now. In a number of stories, which have a refugee or immigrant angle.....they've cut off commentary entirely. In fact, the only stories that the Local generally allows full commentary without any moderation....oddly....are sports stories.
Why the need for moderation? There is some belief by German intellectuals and news groups that if you moderate and control commentary by the public.....then there's less aggravated feelings and more acceptance of the message. In simple terms....you put out a message....you allow only certain reactions or comments about your message.....then people think that it's generally accepted. In the former Communist world....the better method was simply to limit news to a few bits and pieces....with almost no message, and you end up with no aggravated feelings.
Where this all goes? It's difficult to predict how this moderation gimmick will play out in the long-run. I'm guessing someone will eventually challenge someone in court, and we will go through a two-year cycle of German judges reviewing moderation and trying to find legal standing for or against it. They might actually hand it back to the Bundestag to pass a law affecting future limits on moderation or allowing full moderation with no limits.
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