Over the past year, I've spent a fair amount of time reading over Swedish economical history, commerce, the migration issues, and public sentiment (both for and against asylum and immigration). So this is my forecast in 15 years, and what will exist (something radically different from today).
At some point in the next year or two, a economic slowdown will start to occur across much of the EU. You already see some elements of this in Germany....much less so in France. Sweden will note the recession and the authorities will simply state that they are 'prepared'.
But as this slowdown starts to be noticed, and some frustrated Swedes feel public safety is no longer guaranteed.....around 10,000 Swedes will opt for leaving Sweden. The destinations? Mostly Finland and Canada (with Polish and Czech technology companies and teaching slots also noted).
These Swedes won't be the loser-types, but mostly fitting into craftsmen trades, and technology jobs.
The wave will be noted about a year into it and some teacher vacancies in urbanized areas will become an issue as the employment 'bosses' won't be able to hire enough teachers to fill slots.
Along about this time....policemen, firemen, and more craftsmen will back to leave. Those moving into Canada will find themselves easily accepted and shocked how safe they feel there.
Around 2025, a national meeting will be held in Sweden to discuss the lack of teachers. Some sentiment will be pushed toward importing teachers.
Around this same time-frame, some technology companies will start reviewing the idea of moving into Finland, or some other EU country because they can't recruit enough people for the work they perform.
A new problem is discovered now by the state tax revenue people....the state is now meeting a negative number situation. There's simply not enough moving coming in.....to meet all the normal goals.
An election occurs after 2025 with significant high results for right-wing politics, but court actions occur....to slow down this impact, and prevent the government from enforcing it's new views.
By 2030, the total number of Swedes who will have left from 2019 to 2030 will be near 600,000 (the majority to Canada).
Tax revenue issues? It's now a major problem and city councils are calling in non-working migrants and demanding that they get job-training and accept any employment offered. Because of tax increases, the migrants are now furious at the new situation, and demanding a new political party to be created....to represent them at the national level.
By 2035, another 300,000 Swedes will have left the country, and Sweden is now noted in some doomed stage...unable to correct past issues, and unable to function without serious borrowing action from the EU. Politics will be treated as a joke, and the police turn-over rate is now near 10-percent a year. Several major fires will occur between 2030 and 2035, where training deficiencies and manpower problems allow a major number of fire-deaths to occur.
The unthinkable begins to occur in 2035, as over 450,000 long-term migrants pack-up and leave Sweden.....to return to their homeland. Locals are shocked at the pace of exiting and wonder what Sweden will be like in the future. The multicultural Sweden.....existing as a Swedish-only culture?
Thursday, October 31, 2019
'Ali' Case on Second Episode
Last year, I essayed a number of times over the assault/murder of a local Mainz teenager (14 years old) by a migrant/asylum guy from Iraq (the 'Ali-case'). The case ended a while back (in July of this year) and for that episode....the asylum guy got life in prison for rape and murder.
Well, there was a second case out there which few local folks in Wiesbaden followed.
You see....Ali was also pinned on a rape charge (11-year old migrant girl from this region).
Today, the local Wiesbaden court system convened and gave out the verdict....guilty. The sentence? 7.5 years in prison. That's on top of the life in prison from the rape, assault and murder charge.
Done now? Well, some people think his case will be taken through the court system because the seizure of the guy in Iraq, and his return to Germany....wasn't done in accordance with the laws of Germany. It may take a year or two, but this might be the next twist/turn of this episode.
Well, there was a second case out there which few local folks in Wiesbaden followed.
You see....Ali was also pinned on a rape charge (11-year old migrant girl from this region).
Today, the local Wiesbaden court system convened and gave out the verdict....guilty. The sentence? 7.5 years in prison. That's on top of the life in prison from the rape, assault and murder charge.
Done now? Well, some people think his case will be taken through the court system because the seizure of the guy in Iraq, and his return to Germany....wasn't done in accordance with the laws of Germany. It may take a year or two, but this might be the next twist/turn of this episode.
Another Hydrogen 'Station'
An interesting event took place here in Hessen in the past week....over in Bad Homburg. For reference, Bad Homburg is a 'spa' town (where magical waters reside), having around 50,000 residents, and lays about 10 miles north of Frankfurt.
So the event? They opened up the 76th official hydrogen 'filling' station in Germany.
It's at the Hessol station over on Ober-Eschbacher-Strasse. It's a somewhat new station.
They had a little ceremony and the news people did note with some glee....you could pop in and fill your hydrogen-running car....in just a couple of minutes.
Here's the thing....using summer 2019 numbers, they are just now reaching up to the 390 hydrogen car situation. So basically, there's around six cars for each station.
A trend? Well, here's the thing. The VW, Opel, Audi, BMW and Mercedes crowd have pumped in billions of Euro to build the battery technology cars. They have ZERO interest in seeing this take off with hydrogen cars. The fact that they are safe, can be refilled in three minutes or less, and be dependable? It's best not to bring this up.
There is more interest in 2019, than it was in 2010....that is one simple fact.
The odds of the hydrogen car crowd reaching 1,000 by the end of 2020? Here's the thing, back in 2010.....the problem was the lack of filling stations. Presently, they've started to show some innovation and changes. The goal of the H2 crowd (running this effort now) is to aim at seven major urbanized areas in Germany, and have one hundred stations in those seven cities (Nuremburg, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Stuttgart, Munich, Rhine-Ruhr, and Berlin).
Once that achievement is done.....they are hoping for hype on H-Cars, and moving on.
So the event? They opened up the 76th official hydrogen 'filling' station in Germany.
It's at the Hessol station over on Ober-Eschbacher-Strasse. It's a somewhat new station.
They had a little ceremony and the news people did note with some glee....you could pop in and fill your hydrogen-running car....in just a couple of minutes.
Here's the thing....using summer 2019 numbers, they are just now reaching up to the 390 hydrogen car situation. So basically, there's around six cars for each station.
A trend? Well, here's the thing. The VW, Opel, Audi, BMW and Mercedes crowd have pumped in billions of Euro to build the battery technology cars. They have ZERO interest in seeing this take off with hydrogen cars. The fact that they are safe, can be refilled in three minutes or less, and be dependable? It's best not to bring this up.
There is more interest in 2019, than it was in 2010....that is one simple fact.
The odds of the hydrogen car crowd reaching 1,000 by the end of 2020? Here's the thing, back in 2010.....the problem was the lack of filling stations. Presently, they've started to show some innovation and changes. The goal of the H2 crowd (running this effort now) is to aim at seven major urbanized areas in Germany, and have one hundred stations in those seven cities (Nuremburg, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Stuttgart, Munich, Rhine-Ruhr, and Berlin).
Once that achievement is done.....they are hoping for hype on H-Cars, and moving on.
Something That Makes Little Sense
Court case developing in Germany, over a protest that occurred up in NW Germany (in the state of NRW).
So, the protest was an effort by a crowd of folks, to halt the operation of a coal-fired power plant. Cops came in....arrested five individuals in particular and now the court has opened up.
The initial claim by the five? They say that they have no job....no income....and are full-time protesters.
Yes, it does beg questions.
The five are proclaiming themselves as social climate justice 'activists'.
Logically, you'd ask....how do you survive without a job in Germany? Social welfare? If you walk into any Job-Center, to continually approve your Hartz-IV status, they'd demand that you show some effort at getting a job. That means submitting for jobs, and sending out resumes. Obviously, these five aren't on the Hartz-IV program.
So you go to the next question, where's the income? You have to have clothing, pocket money for beer and marijuana, along with some food-money. You can't get from your position under the bridge or from the tent.....to some protest site 300 kilometers away....without using commercial means (train, bus, car).
There is some income or allowance being handed out, via some unknown foundation or private group.
The judge in this case? Maybe he'll buy into the statement, that they are full-time activists with no real income or occupation. Personally, I'd start to ask about the people behind your group and how they hand you the money. Tax-wise, there's some funny smell about this story. But the judge might just want to reach some end-point, and hand the five several months in some local jail....just to end the mess.
This brings me to this odd pondering of thought....just how many no-pay-no-work activists exist in Germany today? A dozen? A hundred? A thousand?
Where exactly do these revolutionary type folks intend to be in ten to twenty years? Will this be their life occupation....retiring in forty years, to get free money via social welfare, because they never worked a day or put a single Euro into the pension system?
Behind all of this comical behavior, you just sense that there's some focus group or foundation, with protest agendas in their mind, and they've hired up some private army to accomplish this. In some ways, it's a odd prospective....you have to wonder where this would lead a nation in the future.
So, the protest was an effort by a crowd of folks, to halt the operation of a coal-fired power plant. Cops came in....arrested five individuals in particular and now the court has opened up.
The initial claim by the five? They say that they have no job....no income....and are full-time protesters.
Yes, it does beg questions.
The five are proclaiming themselves as social climate justice 'activists'.
Logically, you'd ask....how do you survive without a job in Germany? Social welfare? If you walk into any Job-Center, to continually approve your Hartz-IV status, they'd demand that you show some effort at getting a job. That means submitting for jobs, and sending out resumes. Obviously, these five aren't on the Hartz-IV program.
So you go to the next question, where's the income? You have to have clothing, pocket money for beer and marijuana, along with some food-money. You can't get from your position under the bridge or from the tent.....to some protest site 300 kilometers away....without using commercial means (train, bus, car).
There is some income or allowance being handed out, via some unknown foundation or private group.
The judge in this case? Maybe he'll buy into the statement, that they are full-time activists with no real income or occupation. Personally, I'd start to ask about the people behind your group and how they hand you the money. Tax-wise, there's some funny smell about this story. But the judge might just want to reach some end-point, and hand the five several months in some local jail....just to end the mess.
This brings me to this odd pondering of thought....just how many no-pay-no-work activists exist in Germany today? A dozen? A hundred? A thousand?
Where exactly do these revolutionary type folks intend to be in ten to twenty years? Will this be their life occupation....retiring in forty years, to get free money via social welfare, because they never worked a day or put a single Euro into the pension system?
Behind all of this comical behavior, you just sense that there's some focus group or foundation, with protest agendas in their mind, and they've hired up some private army to accomplish this. In some ways, it's a odd prospective....you have to wonder where this would lead a nation in the future.
Rap Story
If you follow the German singer/rapper Bushido....he's gotten himself into the top ten news items of the day.
A description of Bushido? He's a guy who grew up in Berlin (the old West Berlin), and has a particular view of society, which probably doesn't agree much with how some Germans view things.
If you mention his name around working-class German kids (say 12 to 18)....he's a legend.
So he produced this recent album (Sonny Black). He did several raps which had some negative language tied into gays and women. Yes, vulgar words were used (no doubt to that discussion).
Some folks got hostile about that. They wanted his album stamped 'harmful to minors'. The court yesterday agreed. The funny thing about this 'harmful' business....this originally got started in 2015. How many kids bought the album over the past four years? Probably over a ten-percent of the youth population. And they probably shared it out to three or four friends each.
Various efforts are underway or having been used to prevent Bushido from getting awards or being noted. I would suggest those efforts are mostly laughed at by the youth crowd, and simply proves Bushido's criticism of German society in 2019.
Where this is going to lead onto? Every month that passes, I would suggest that this rapper....Bushido....is getting closer to becoming a political party-start-up guy, and like France's Macron.....he could invent a political spectrum out of thin air. The rap enthusiasts around Germany? They might agree with his criticism of the government.
A force in 2021's national election? Maybe. Even if he doesn't make up his own party....he might have a rap or two....to shift opinions of young voters.
A description of Bushido? He's a guy who grew up in Berlin (the old West Berlin), and has a particular view of society, which probably doesn't agree much with how some Germans view things.
If you mention his name around working-class German kids (say 12 to 18)....he's a legend.
So he produced this recent album (Sonny Black). He did several raps which had some negative language tied into gays and women. Yes, vulgar words were used (no doubt to that discussion).
Some folks got hostile about that. They wanted his album stamped 'harmful to minors'. The court yesterday agreed. The funny thing about this 'harmful' business....this originally got started in 2015. How many kids bought the album over the past four years? Probably over a ten-percent of the youth population. And they probably shared it out to three or four friends each.
Various efforts are underway or having been used to prevent Bushido from getting awards or being noted. I would suggest those efforts are mostly laughed at by the youth crowd, and simply proves Bushido's criticism of German society in 2019.
Where this is going to lead onto? Every month that passes, I would suggest that this rapper....Bushido....is getting closer to becoming a political party-start-up guy, and like France's Macron.....he could invent a political spectrum out of thin air. The rap enthusiasts around Germany? They might agree with his criticism of the government.
A force in 2021's national election? Maybe. Even if he doesn't make up his own party....he might have a rap or two....to shift opinions of young voters.
More Cops to be Hired
There's chatter at the Bundestag now, to hire another 740 'extra' police (on top of the ten-thousand currently underway right now).
What would these police do? Right-wing extremism.
So you have the national (federal) police, who are in charge of the Constitutional Protection business (meaning you get a judge's order to watch certain people because they are now deemed a threat). These folks have come to the Bundestag and say that 740 'extra' police are necessary to do the job required.
Why 740? That's not really explained. I'm guessing that there is a 'white-paper' on this topic, with various departments that will be bulked-up and more folks put on the street to conduct surveillance operations, or even undercover situations.
One sit and ask.....where exactly will you recruit and find the 740, and if there's decent odds that a quarter of them will be right-leaning as you recruit them, and you might end up with a major problem in five years where twenty-five of the group are under surveillance themselves? Oh yeah.....that's the comical side of this suggestion of hiring more police.
By 2040, I can imagine that via the national, state and local cops.....Germany will have doubled the number that exists in 2019. All in the effort to make people think that we have a public safety problem, and that more police will resolve that.
What would these police do? Right-wing extremism.
So you have the national (federal) police, who are in charge of the Constitutional Protection business (meaning you get a judge's order to watch certain people because they are now deemed a threat). These folks have come to the Bundestag and say that 740 'extra' police are necessary to do the job required.
Why 740? That's not really explained. I'm guessing that there is a 'white-paper' on this topic, with various departments that will be bulked-up and more folks put on the street to conduct surveillance operations, or even undercover situations.
One sit and ask.....where exactly will you recruit and find the 740, and if there's decent odds that a quarter of them will be right-leaning as you recruit them, and you might end up with a major problem in five years where twenty-five of the group are under surveillance themselves? Oh yeah.....that's the comical side of this suggestion of hiring more police.
By 2040, I can imagine that via the national, state and local cops.....Germany will have doubled the number that exists in 2019. All in the effort to make people think that we have a public safety problem, and that more police will resolve that.
So What is "Democracy Live"?
A budget position was staked out in the Bundestag yesterday....115 million Euro was positioned (yearly) , from 2020 to 2023....for something called 'Democracy Live".
What is 'Democracy Live'?
Well....it's a Seattle-based private organization that is pushing a cloud-based ballot agenda, with technology firmly part of all all elections. They appear to be offering their technology and advice....worldwide. Curiously, most of their efforts so far, have been aimed at the US.
Their intention, if you read the material on their site, is to create an information flow on 'facts', parties, and candidates....so that the voter can make a wise decision.
The fact that political parties already funnel such information out (similar case as politicians themselves)? It would appear that Democracy Live wants to give you the image that they can be neutral and offer only 'true facts'....validating the promises themselves.
As for the idea of cloud-based ballots? Why? This would require an awful lot of security, and the trust-level of the public would continually be put to a stress test.
Who are primarily signing up for the services? Metropolitan and urbanized counties in the US.
So you come back to asking....why did Germany agree to fund them with 115 million Euro a year? Why not task some German technology group.....supporting them with the money? That would seem to be the more logical step.
Then you have that funny German tendency that should have occurred.....where is your personal and private data, and is it 'SAFE' (I emphasize that because German politicians continually harp on that one single characteristic)? A normal German political figure would have looked at cloud-based 'chatter' and put his hand up to stop the talk right there.
It's a bit odd.
What is 'Democracy Live'?
Well....it's a Seattle-based private organization that is pushing a cloud-based ballot agenda, with technology firmly part of all all elections. They appear to be offering their technology and advice....worldwide. Curiously, most of their efforts so far, have been aimed at the US.
Their intention, if you read the material on their site, is to create an information flow on 'facts', parties, and candidates....so that the voter can make a wise decision.
The fact that political parties already funnel such information out (similar case as politicians themselves)? It would appear that Democracy Live wants to give you the image that they can be neutral and offer only 'true facts'....validating the promises themselves.
As for the idea of cloud-based ballots? Why? This would require an awful lot of security, and the trust-level of the public would continually be put to a stress test.
Who are primarily signing up for the services? Metropolitan and urbanized counties in the US.
So you come back to asking....why did Germany agree to fund them with 115 million Euro a year? Why not task some German technology group.....supporting them with the money? That would seem to be the more logical step.
Then you have that funny German tendency that should have occurred.....where is your personal and private data, and is it 'SAFE' (I emphasize that because German politicians continually harp on that one single characteristic)? A normal German political figure would have looked at cloud-based 'chatter' and put his hand up to stop the talk right there.
It's a bit odd.
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Facebook and the Next German Worry
German public TV (ARD) got spun up today over a Facebook comment.
For those who haven't grasped it....there's an enormous push going on in the US to bring Facebook to one of two realities: (1) in a status of a public utility, or (2) to break it up entirely (as was done to AT and T decades ago). To prevent either, the new idea is to allow conservative news to flow through and not be limited. The particular group they are talking about? Breitbart.
Yes, the evil Breitbart.
Shortly after the 2016 US election, this was one of the dozen-odd things that German journalists jumped upon....that brain-washing or propaganda work....had been done by Breitbart using Facebook data-flow.
For several months public TV journalists talked about Breitbart and 'warned' the German news consumers not to fall for their brand of propaganda.
So now? Zuckerburg of Facebook indicates some relationship will be allowed....without saying that he's hoping to avoid the breakup or utility status.
Worrisome to German journalists? Absolutely.
But here's this odd thing, if you spend any time at all reviewing Breitbart stories. Almost all of them....lead back to an originating source (a network, a newspaper, a news magazine, a foundation, etc).
When you go and review the 40-odd lines, they will reference who developed the story (maybe even two or more sources), and then lay out more background to what was said.
The effort of Breitbart currently in Europe? Their London/Europe page will be about 50-percent BREXIT, crime stories from Europe will take up 10-percent which are fully linked to national newspapers in most cases, and the rest will be this oddball group (terrorism, Turkey, migration failures, etc). In a full week, there might only be five Breitbart stories over Germany.
So you go and read the five German stories and examine content, facts, and character. There is a slant to the story....no one argues about that. But the facts tend to support that slant. If you had problems with Breitbart....you'd have problems with the newspaper or news network telling the story in the first place.
This whole German worry....mostly about nothing? No. Presently, German public TV (ZDF and ARD) carry the bulk of news that people believe. As long as they can continue that trend....with people trusting them....there's no issue. But here's the 500-pound guerrilla in the room...young Germans (under the age of 30) are watching less and less public TV news. They like their content via social media. So, as time goes by.....less belief is being generated for ARD and ZDF. Long-term....it's a problem. And here Facebook is...only trying to survive without being carved up....accepting their dilemma.
For those who haven't grasped it....there's an enormous push going on in the US to bring Facebook to one of two realities: (1) in a status of a public utility, or (2) to break it up entirely (as was done to AT and T decades ago). To prevent either, the new idea is to allow conservative news to flow through and not be limited. The particular group they are talking about? Breitbart.
Yes, the evil Breitbart.
Shortly after the 2016 US election, this was one of the dozen-odd things that German journalists jumped upon....that brain-washing or propaganda work....had been done by Breitbart using Facebook data-flow.
For several months public TV journalists talked about Breitbart and 'warned' the German news consumers not to fall for their brand of propaganda.
So now? Zuckerburg of Facebook indicates some relationship will be allowed....without saying that he's hoping to avoid the breakup or utility status.
Worrisome to German journalists? Absolutely.
But here's this odd thing, if you spend any time at all reviewing Breitbart stories. Almost all of them....lead back to an originating source (a network, a newspaper, a news magazine, a foundation, etc).
When you go and review the 40-odd lines, they will reference who developed the story (maybe even two or more sources), and then lay out more background to what was said.
The effort of Breitbart currently in Europe? Their London/Europe page will be about 50-percent BREXIT, crime stories from Europe will take up 10-percent which are fully linked to national newspapers in most cases, and the rest will be this oddball group (terrorism, Turkey, migration failures, etc). In a full week, there might only be five Breitbart stories over Germany.
So you go and read the five German stories and examine content, facts, and character. There is a slant to the story....no one argues about that. But the facts tend to support that slant. If you had problems with Breitbart....you'd have problems with the newspaper or news network telling the story in the first place.
This whole German worry....mostly about nothing? No. Presently, German public TV (ZDF and ARD) carry the bulk of news that people believe. As long as they can continue that trend....with people trusting them....there's no issue. But here's the 500-pound guerrilla in the room...young Germans (under the age of 30) are watching less and less public TV news. They like their content via social media. So, as time goes by.....less belief is being generated for ARD and ZDF. Long-term....it's a problem. And here Facebook is...only trying to survive without being carved up....accepting their dilemma.
Fake Degree Story
It's one of those odd German 'frustrations' and title problems that come out about once or twice a year.
So for a number of years down in the Saarland area (SW Germany), there was this guy.....Andreas Neumann. He'd introduced himself, and gotten into the Linke Party organization there regionally. He'd given some speeches, and eventually rose up to district chairman for the Linke organization of Saarlouis (a significant town in the Saar region). He claimed a doctorate degree. In simple terms....he had status.
No one says why, but there came some discussion over his degree, and the university that had granted it. Then the whole story fell apart....it's not a 'real' university. Fake degree? Yep, more or less.
So the party has fired him. But that's really not the end. You can get into serious trouble here in Germany, if you claimed some degree of a fake nature. Because the court is involved now....he had to appear in front of a judge.
It would appear the current fine for this will end up being around 50 Euro, but for the probationary 'cost'....it's in the 1,800 Euro.
Where'd the doctorate degree come from? University of Lancaster.....2003, in Philosophy.
So was this 'sudden'? No. What several journalists hint at....is that for more than a decade....questions were brought up over this guy, and how he got a degree.
About every six months, some German ethical dilemma will arise over the fake degree business, or some serious issue over plagiarism on some gal's thesis from twenty years ago.
So for a number of years down in the Saarland area (SW Germany), there was this guy.....Andreas Neumann. He'd introduced himself, and gotten into the Linke Party organization there regionally. He'd given some speeches, and eventually rose up to district chairman for the Linke organization of Saarlouis (a significant town in the Saar region). He claimed a doctorate degree. In simple terms....he had status.
No one says why, but there came some discussion over his degree, and the university that had granted it. Then the whole story fell apart....it's not a 'real' university. Fake degree? Yep, more or less.
So the party has fired him. But that's really not the end. You can get into serious trouble here in Germany, if you claimed some degree of a fake nature. Because the court is involved now....he had to appear in front of a judge.
It would appear the current fine for this will end up being around 50 Euro, but for the probationary 'cost'....it's in the 1,800 Euro.
Where'd the doctorate degree come from? University of Lancaster.....2003, in Philosophy.
So was this 'sudden'? No. What several journalists hint at....is that for more than a decade....questions were brought up over this guy, and how he got a degree.
About every six months, some German ethical dilemma will arise over the fake degree business, or some serious issue over plagiarism on some gal's thesis from twenty years ago.
Talking Unemployment Rates in Europe
If you go and use Statista numbers, there is a wide range of unemployment in Europe presently, and to some degree....it is affecting public perception over migration and acceptance of immigrants.
Using the summer numbers....at the very top of unemployment stand Greece (17-percent), Spain (13.8-percent), and Italy (9.5-percent).
At the very bottom? Malta (3.3-percent), Germany (3.1-percent), and Czech (2-percent).
The UK presently, with BREXIT brewing? That's a curious number....3.8-percent. It's almost half of what the French are standing with.
Selling migration, integration, and acceptance of immigrants over to a society with numbers above 5-percent is difficult, and for some political parties....you are simply begging for criticism.
Why any criticism exists in Germany, with such low rates? The super-low rates exist in Germany because of Bavaria, Baden-Wuerttemberg, and Hessen. If you use the eastern states (old DDR), it's not that great. And that's why the AfD type voters gain numbers in that region.
If a EU-type recession occurs.....will we see unemployment rise? Not necessarily (meaning some marginal rise in numbers is to be expected). In the case of Germany, you can anticipate a 2-point rise, and it wouldn't be that big of a deal. But if you were in France (currently at 8.5-percent unemployment) and saw a five-point rise....it'd be a very negative thing for the Macron folks to handle.
It's one of those trends that you might want to watch.
Using the summer numbers....at the very top of unemployment stand Greece (17-percent), Spain (13.8-percent), and Italy (9.5-percent).
At the very bottom? Malta (3.3-percent), Germany (3.1-percent), and Czech (2-percent).
The UK presently, with BREXIT brewing? That's a curious number....3.8-percent. It's almost half of what the French are standing with.
Selling migration, integration, and acceptance of immigrants over to a society with numbers above 5-percent is difficult, and for some political parties....you are simply begging for criticism.
Why any criticism exists in Germany, with such low rates? The super-low rates exist in Germany because of Bavaria, Baden-Wuerttemberg, and Hessen. If you use the eastern states (old DDR), it's not that great. And that's why the AfD type voters gain numbers in that region.
If a EU-type recession occurs.....will we see unemployment rise? Not necessarily (meaning some marginal rise in numbers is to be expected). In the case of Germany, you can anticipate a 2-point rise, and it wouldn't be that big of a deal. But if you were in France (currently at 8.5-percent unemployment) and saw a five-point rise....it'd be a very negative thing for the Macron folks to handle.
It's one of those trends that you might want to watch.
Fiat-Chrysler Talking to Opel?
Yes.
The Opel crowd will confirm that, but no one is sure about anything.
Added to this, the French car company Peugeot is also talking.
Opel in terms of profits? If you go and talk about Chinese sales.....Opel is having one of its best years there.
Back in February of this year, Opel climbed out of the pit, and made near 980 million dollars in profit....something that they had not seen in 20-odd years.
Added to the conversation....Peugeot is now talking about taking its brand into the US.
If you add up what PSA (the mother company of Peugeot, Opel, Vauxhall, and Citroen) did in 2018....clearing near 39 billion dollars in revenue....they've got some kind of magic going on currently.
So would this all lead to some massive Fiat-Chrysler-Opel-Peugeot-Vauxhall-Citroen 'Frankenstein'? I would go and suggest as the mandated e-car period is approaching....they all need to have one battery technology and one single integrated plan. The odds are that they will all trim gas/diesel powered vehicle models, and you will begin to see a scaled back plan for the 2030 era, and beyond. It would make business-sense.
The unions? They have to be thinking that long-term....there's a 10 to 20 percent cut in jobs within the industry approaching, and be fairly negative about the future of e-cars.
The Opel crowd will confirm that, but no one is sure about anything.
Added to this, the French car company Peugeot is also talking.
Opel in terms of profits? If you go and talk about Chinese sales.....Opel is having one of its best years there.
Back in February of this year, Opel climbed out of the pit, and made near 980 million dollars in profit....something that they had not seen in 20-odd years.
Added to the conversation....Peugeot is now talking about taking its brand into the US.
If you add up what PSA (the mother company of Peugeot, Opel, Vauxhall, and Citroen) did in 2018....clearing near 39 billion dollars in revenue....they've got some kind of magic going on currently.
So would this all lead to some massive Fiat-Chrysler-Opel-Peugeot-Vauxhall-Citroen 'Frankenstein'? I would go and suggest as the mandated e-car period is approaching....they all need to have one battery technology and one single integrated plan. The odds are that they will all trim gas/diesel powered vehicle models, and you will begin to see a scaled back plan for the 2030 era, and beyond. It would make business-sense.
The unions? They have to be thinking that long-term....there's a 10 to 20 percent cut in jobs within the industry approaching, and be fairly negative about the future of e-cars.
Approaching Recession
N-TV (commercial German news network) had a business piece today and chatted over the potential recession.
In blunt words, N-TV's comment was that the German economy is on the negative path right now. They use numbers from DIHK (German Chamber of Commerce/Industry), and say that the economy doesn't appear to show any 'lift' for 2019 or 2020.
Blame? Right now, it's aimed mostly at the global economy. BREXIT may fall into play in 2020 (if it ever occurs).
Unemployment rising? People are careful about suggesting this. Presently, it's around 3.1-percent. You could see a one-point rise occurring, without a lot of hyped-up feelings. Anything going beyond 6-percent would mean serious political chats.
Also, it's an odd fact that stands out in German data....but if you used summer 2019 numbers, Bavaria has the lowest unemployment rate (2.7-percent). On the highest end? Bremen (10.2 percent). That's one of the bigger discussion items....various areas differ by significant numbers. The southern half of Germany (to include Hessen) are all in the 3-to-4 percent range of unemployment. The northern half is all six-percent or more.
In blunt words, N-TV's comment was that the German economy is on the negative path right now. They use numbers from DIHK (German Chamber of Commerce/Industry), and say that the economy doesn't appear to show any 'lift' for 2019 or 2020.
Blame? Right now, it's aimed mostly at the global economy. BREXIT may fall into play in 2020 (if it ever occurs).
Unemployment rising? People are careful about suggesting this. Presently, it's around 3.1-percent. You could see a one-point rise occurring, without a lot of hyped-up feelings. Anything going beyond 6-percent would mean serious political chats.
Also, it's an odd fact that stands out in German data....but if you used summer 2019 numbers, Bavaria has the lowest unemployment rate (2.7-percent). On the highest end? Bremen (10.2 percent). That's one of the bigger discussion items....various areas differ by significant numbers. The southern half of Germany (to include Hessen) are all in the 3-to-4 percent range of unemployment. The northern half is all six-percent or more.
Criticism of Merkel and AKK Over Past 72 Hours
Since the election results of Sunday, if you follow German politics....there's been a fair amount of criticism over the past strategies and leadership of Chancellor Merkel (from her own party members), and over the Party Chief of the CDU (AKK, who is now the Party Chief and Defense Minister).
The blunt side of this is that a fair number of typical CDU-voters simply aren't that happy over migration, Merkel's leadership demonstrations, or the idea of AKK being the 2021 party Chancellor candidate.
So who is lining up to be the alternate Chancellor candidate? You have two possibilities:
1. Markus Soder of the CSU (Bavaria)
2. Friedrich Merz of the CDU
Both are fairly well known within the Party and throughout Germany. Neither gets any plus points from the pro-Merkel or pro-AKK crowd. Part of this dislike discussion centers around intellectualism, and how Germans rate each other on some imaginary intellectual scale. Merz is more of a businessman, and Soder is more of a finance 'wiz'.
Here's the thing though....the only election for the next fourteen months will be a early 2020 election in Hamburg.....where the CDU in local state politics is expected to do lousy. Beyond that....2020 promises to be a quiet year. So if you were critical of Merkel, now is the time to get mileage.
The blunt side of this is that a fair number of typical CDU-voters simply aren't that happy over migration, Merkel's leadership demonstrations, or the idea of AKK being the 2021 party Chancellor candidate.
So who is lining up to be the alternate Chancellor candidate? You have two possibilities:
1. Markus Soder of the CSU (Bavaria)
2. Friedrich Merz of the CDU
Both are fairly well known within the Party and throughout Germany. Neither gets any plus points from the pro-Merkel or pro-AKK crowd. Part of this dislike discussion centers around intellectualism, and how Germans rate each other on some imaginary intellectual scale. Merz is more of a businessman, and Soder is more of a finance 'wiz'.
Here's the thing though....the only election for the next fourteen months will be a early 2020 election in Hamburg.....where the CDU in local state politics is expected to do lousy. Beyond that....2020 promises to be a quiet year. So if you were critical of Merkel, now is the time to get mileage.
Tuesday, October 29, 2019
Pete Altmaier In the News Today
The German head of Economic Affairs (Ministry level), Pete Altmaier, CDU Party, (age 61) was supposed to give a speech at a digital business summit this morning. On the way up to the podium....he stumbled and fell off onto the floor by the stage.
What can be said is that he was briefly unconscious and had some kind of cut.....with new reporting this afternoon saying he has a broken noise. Beyond that, he's OK.
You probably won't see him for the next ten days, and he will return to 'action'.
What can be said is that he was briefly unconscious and had some kind of cut.....with new reporting this afternoon saying he has a broken noise. Beyond that, he's OK.
You probably won't see him for the next ten days, and he will return to 'action'.
Health Ministry Story
If you follow German news over the past couple of years, there's been this strange phenomenon that has occurred in metropolitan regions of Germany....attacks against emergency ambulance crews, doctors responding to emergency calls, and hospital staff members.
When you dig through the various reports, it usually points the finger of blame at three distinctive groups: (1) drunk or doped-up Germans on the street, (2) crime clan groups, or (3) migrants challenging the help or assistance (usually under the influence of drugs or alcohol).
These events usually have the mayor or city council in an uproar, and having to answer to the general public why violence is being conducted.
Well, today....the head of the Health Ministry (Spahn, CDU) has come out and said he's ready for legislative action (similar to the law from 2017 that sets legal measures against anyone halting or harming police or fire department members). In that measure....you can be given up to five years in prison if you harm or disrupt a person trying to conduct official duty (in police or rescue measures).
The problem I see is that the accused will end up admitting some alcohol use or drug use.....then ask the judge to throw that accusation out. Judges might be under more pressure to push back, and hand out a minimum of six months in jail.
A big deal? If you work as an ambulance driver/crew in Frankfurt, you might witness some threat once in a while, and it's probably more so with the drunk or doped-up crowd. In some smaller towns in the Pfalz? You might go twenty years and never see any threat made on a rescue call.
When you dig through the various reports, it usually points the finger of blame at three distinctive groups: (1) drunk or doped-up Germans on the street, (2) crime clan groups, or (3) migrants challenging the help or assistance (usually under the influence of drugs or alcohol).
These events usually have the mayor or city council in an uproar, and having to answer to the general public why violence is being conducted.
Well, today....the head of the Health Ministry (Spahn, CDU) has come out and said he's ready for legislative action (similar to the law from 2017 that sets legal measures against anyone halting or harming police or fire department members). In that measure....you can be given up to five years in prison if you harm or disrupt a person trying to conduct official duty (in police or rescue measures).
The problem I see is that the accused will end up admitting some alcohol use or drug use.....then ask the judge to throw that accusation out. Judges might be under more pressure to push back, and hand out a minimum of six months in jail.
A big deal? If you work as an ambulance driver/crew in Frankfurt, you might witness some threat once in a while, and it's probably more so with the drunk or doped-up crowd. In some smaller towns in the Pfalz? You might go twenty years and never see any threat made on a rescue call.
An Example Out of the Black Book
The Black Book is published yearly in Germany, and it tells the story of wasteful spending by the German federal government, the state governments, and city governments.
So this is an example out of the book.
There's this small town in far northwestern Germany called Emden. It's about a 40-minute drive west of Bremen.
There's this canal or waterway that runs through the town. They decided to redo the pedestrian bridge there. They installed the new bridge.....the"Schiefe Tillie". Things were fine until the first small craft boat approached. For years, the normal bridge had this clearance level....which all boaters were aware of and met those conditions.
Well....this new bridge, was 40 centimeters too low (around 16 inches). The taller craft that had passed through before? They could not pass now.
Who screwed up? Unknown. No one wanted to admit fault.
Cost to repair this? 10,000 Euro (12,000 US dollars roughly). Paid out of the city pot of money.
They brought in a couple of jacks....jacked it enough on both sides, and then put some fitting under that. All of this then had to be certified by safety folks. It's 10,000 Euro wasted.
A fair number of Germans now pay attention to the Black Book and the examples. It demonstrates over and over.....year after year.....a level of incompetence that costs the nation millions of Euro.
So this is an example out of the book.
There's this small town in far northwestern Germany called Emden. It's about a 40-minute drive west of Bremen.
There's this canal or waterway that runs through the town. They decided to redo the pedestrian bridge there. They installed the new bridge.....the"Schiefe Tillie". Things were fine until the first small craft boat approached. For years, the normal bridge had this clearance level....which all boaters were aware of and met those conditions.
Well....this new bridge, was 40 centimeters too low (around 16 inches). The taller craft that had passed through before? They could not pass now.
Who screwed up? Unknown. No one wanted to admit fault.
Cost to repair this? 10,000 Euro (12,000 US dollars roughly). Paid out of the city pot of money.
They brought in a couple of jacks....jacked it enough on both sides, and then put some fitting under that. All of this then had to be certified by safety folks. It's 10,000 Euro wasted.
A fair number of Germans now pay attention to the Black Book and the examples. It demonstrates over and over.....year after year.....a level of incompetence that costs the nation millions of Euro.
A Problem You Really Don't Want
Imagine this problem. You are a country, with the start-up of a recession. You have the chief money man sitting there....looking over incoming tax revenue and expenditures.
Suddenly he stops and walks away from the desk. He's in a panic.
He's got 10 billion Euro extra....collected from the year's incoming tax revenue situation. It shouldn't be there, but somehow....things fell into play, and this miracle occurred. Roughly 12-billion dollars extra.
But here's the problem.....what the heck do you do with the extra money. Lock it into an account, or spend it?
If you were a conservative guy....you'd save it.
If you were a liberal guy....you'd find some social program and throw it into the pit.
Well, this has occurred here in Germany, this week.
Personally, if I were the money-manager....I'd be asking how the heck you accomplished extra tax-revenue....in the amount of 10 billion Euro. Did you sell more cars? Did a bunch of Chinese tourists make the difference? Did the migrants make a difference? Are Americans buying more German wine at a heavier price?
My guess in the end....they will spend the money unwisely. It might be nice if you just went to the bottom ten-percent of wage-earners who paid taxes into the bucket, and just write them a 200 Euro check for Christmas.....but I seriously doubt that they'd be that crazy. Instead, we will probably see some program for 9,000 new statues to be purchased for cities around Germany, for 2020/2021.
Suddenly he stops and walks away from the desk. He's in a panic.
He's got 10 billion Euro extra....collected from the year's incoming tax revenue situation. It shouldn't be there, but somehow....things fell into play, and this miracle occurred. Roughly 12-billion dollars extra.
But here's the problem.....what the heck do you do with the extra money. Lock it into an account, or spend it?
If you were a conservative guy....you'd save it.
If you were a liberal guy....you'd find some social program and throw it into the pit.
Well, this has occurred here in Germany, this week.
Personally, if I were the money-manager....I'd be asking how the heck you accomplished extra tax-revenue....in the amount of 10 billion Euro. Did you sell more cars? Did a bunch of Chinese tourists make the difference? Did the migrants make a difference? Are Americans buying more German wine at a heavier price?
My guess in the end....they will spend the money unwisely. It might be nice if you just went to the bottom ten-percent of wage-earners who paid taxes into the bucket, and just write them a 200 Euro check for Christmas.....but I seriously doubt that they'd be that crazy. Instead, we will probably see some program for 9,000 new statues to be purchased for cities around Germany, for 2020/2021.
Why The AfD Party Wins Heavily in the East
Over the past three years, German journalists and political strategists have been 'worried' over the upward trend of the AfD Party (the anti-immigration group in German politics).
A lot of criticism and blame has been dished out. Some voters have been noted as 'stupid' or naive. That commentary just infuriated the pro-AfD enthusiasts even more.
It is obvious that the more pro-AfD enthusiasts are coming out of eastern Germany. If you look in states like NRW, Hessen or Bavaria...the typical AfD vote is only around seven to ten percent. You might find a district or two where they spiraled upward to 20 percent in the western part of the country, but that's rare.
After watching this for an extended period, I have this pet-theory on why AfD's politics is more charged up in the east, than the west. Part of this revolves around 1989 collapse of the Berlin Wall, and the unification period.
In 1990, if you'd gone to any East German guy or gal who was 20 years old at the time....they were hyped up and thinking....in thirty years....our lifestyle and landscape will be just like it is in western Germany. They were positive and seeing this great future coming down the pike.
Well....we are thirty years from that point, and the 'even-nature' of the two German lands simply doesn't exist.
Adding a cherry to this problem....when this doorway for asylum and immigration took place, these eastern folks didn't see any positive out of this generous open-doorway. If anything, more funding would go to immigration projects than ensuring a level playing field of east and west Germany.
Toss in the fact that x-number of migrants were delivered into eastern cities, where employment is crappy....you just infuriated more people about the progress of this unification.
So all of these unhappy voters have an option, and are exercising their only method of sending a message to Chancellor Merkel and the current government. There's no doubt that both the CDU and SPD parties have gotten the message, but the response is what? They can't really write an escape plan out of this....without looking anti-migrant or anti-immigrant.
The peak talk? That the AfD folks have hit some peak in popularity? I've yet to see any evidence of that.
The journalists walking around and on continual criticism of this eastern trend of AfD voting? I'd go and suggest a four-week drive around eastern Germany and just observe the landscape....talk to regular people on the street....and assess why multiculturalism, integration and migration aren't selling well.
While I hate to suggest it.....both the SPD and CDU parties will continue in a spiral, until something here is resolved.
A lot of criticism and blame has been dished out. Some voters have been noted as 'stupid' or naive. That commentary just infuriated the pro-AfD enthusiasts even more.
It is obvious that the more pro-AfD enthusiasts are coming out of eastern Germany. If you look in states like NRW, Hessen or Bavaria...the typical AfD vote is only around seven to ten percent. You might find a district or two where they spiraled upward to 20 percent in the western part of the country, but that's rare.
After watching this for an extended period, I have this pet-theory on why AfD's politics is more charged up in the east, than the west. Part of this revolves around 1989 collapse of the Berlin Wall, and the unification period.
In 1990, if you'd gone to any East German guy or gal who was 20 years old at the time....they were hyped up and thinking....in thirty years....our lifestyle and landscape will be just like it is in western Germany. They were positive and seeing this great future coming down the pike.
Well....we are thirty years from that point, and the 'even-nature' of the two German lands simply doesn't exist.
Adding a cherry to this problem....when this doorway for asylum and immigration took place, these eastern folks didn't see any positive out of this generous open-doorway. If anything, more funding would go to immigration projects than ensuring a level playing field of east and west Germany.
Toss in the fact that x-number of migrants were delivered into eastern cities, where employment is crappy....you just infuriated more people about the progress of this unification.
So all of these unhappy voters have an option, and are exercising their only method of sending a message to Chancellor Merkel and the current government. There's no doubt that both the CDU and SPD parties have gotten the message, but the response is what? They can't really write an escape plan out of this....without looking anti-migrant or anti-immigrant.
The peak talk? That the AfD folks have hit some peak in popularity? I've yet to see any evidence of that.
The journalists walking around and on continual criticism of this eastern trend of AfD voting? I'd go and suggest a four-week drive around eastern Germany and just observe the landscape....talk to regular people on the street....and assess why multiculturalism, integration and migration aren't selling well.
While I hate to suggest it.....both the SPD and CDU parties will continue in a spiral, until something here is resolved.
Monday, October 28, 2019
Odd Aspect of the Thuringian Election
For a number of state elections, they had been averaging 50 to 54 percent on registered voters showing up.
Well....after the smoke had cleared, for yesterday's election....they had around 65 percent who showed up. It did screw up the polling data a bit.
Who got the 'new' voters? Mostly the Linke Party and AfD Party.
An indicator of something? Some might go and suggest that the non-voters around in Germany are fed up with both the SPD and CDU parties. But that's simply a guess from this one single election.
I would suggest that this idea doesn't fit well for Hamburg's Feb election. But it does suggest that the 2021 national election might be in for crazy voting.
Well....after the smoke had cleared, for yesterday's election....they had around 65 percent who showed up. It did screw up the polling data a bit.
Who got the 'new' voters? Mostly the Linke Party and AfD Party.
An indicator of something? Some might go and suggest that the non-voters around in Germany are fed up with both the SPD and CDU parties. But that's simply a guess from this one single election.
I would suggest that this idea doesn't fit well for Hamburg's Feb election. But it does suggest that the 2021 national election might be in for crazy voting.
Sunday, October 27, 2019
UK and ID's
I was reading through a BREXIT piece and came to this odd fact about the UK. They have no national ID card.
There were ID papers for the WW II period, but as soon as the war ended....the paper ID requirement went away.
Back in 2006, the Parliament attempted to pass legislation to require a national ID, but by 2010, that had been cancelled out.
So one of the questions for this quick run-up election is that the conservatives want to have an mandatory ID required for the vote process. Oddly enough, just about all of the opposition parties are against this.
There were ID papers for the WW II period, but as soon as the war ended....the paper ID requirement went away.
Back in 2006, the Parliament attempted to pass legislation to require a national ID, but by 2010, that had been cancelled out.
So one of the questions for this quick run-up election is that the conservatives want to have an mandatory ID required for the vote process. Oddly enough, just about all of the opposition parties are against this.
Smoke Clearing Over Thomas Cook Bankruptcy
Over the past two months, this whole Thomas Cook travel agency failure has taken various twists and turns.
With this weekend, it's now apparent that out of the 510-million Euro that is part of the consumer or traveler 'risk'....only 110-million Euro will be paid by the insurance company (Zurich). The rest? All left in the hands of the travelers.
So if you had a trip planned or were on day one of a trip when they failed...out of the 2,500 Euro of cost and screw-ups....you probably will only get 500 Euro back. The other 2,000 Euro is lost.
How many affected? If you count Thomas Cook, and all the sub-companies....it may add up to a minimum of 150,000 across Europe.
The folks who had airline tickets arranged for Christmas already? Screwed royally.
All of this, I think, will lead to a vast amount of mistrust of travel agents and hurt the overall industry.....even those who are not associated with Thomas Cook.
With this weekend, it's now apparent that out of the 510-million Euro that is part of the consumer or traveler 'risk'....only 110-million Euro will be paid by the insurance company (Zurich). The rest? All left in the hands of the travelers.
So if you had a trip planned or were on day one of a trip when they failed...out of the 2,500 Euro of cost and screw-ups....you probably will only get 500 Euro back. The other 2,000 Euro is lost.
How many affected? If you count Thomas Cook, and all the sub-companies....it may add up to a minimum of 150,000 across Europe.
The folks who had airline tickets arranged for Christmas already? Screwed royally.
All of this, I think, will lead to a vast amount of mistrust of travel agents and hurt the overall industry.....even those who are not associated with Thomas Cook.
A Little Story on Leipzig
This story will start from Saturday night (26th of Oct), but elements of this 'mess' have been around for years.
So the fire department in Leipzig got a call....small fire activity in the area of Connewitz. Renovation area (construction zone) fire.
They arrive. The fire is put out. Cops and firemen are satisfied. Then they pack up and leave.
Fire is re-started. Yes, amazing enough....the 'gang' wasn't finished yet.
What the police say as they arrive for the 2nd time....roughly a group of fifty people in some anti-social activity...firecrackers involved, and things being thrown (both beer/wine bottles and paving stones).
Some folks are getting injured and this is getting way out of hand. Even the police cars, parked along the disturbance area....are being damaged by the paving stones and bottles.
Cops go into action and a number of folks are arrested. One guy was arrested for throwing things at the police, but the other dozen-odd folks arrested...were mostly on the charges of drug possession (yep), resisting arrest, and insulting the police. Germany has a nifty law on insults to the police and it doesn't take much to cross the line for that 'trouble'.
Here's the thing....this is the 4th fire in Leipzig in the past month in the renovation zone. Right now, the contracted team figures a minimum of 15 million Euro of damage done, with the insurance companies likely in a hyped-up fit over this reoccurring.
This now leads back to the political establishment in Leipzig and the finger-pointing over what is going on here. It's added weeks and months onto the construction project, along with cost escalating, and likely high demands for more protection along this zone.
I sat this morning and reviewed the 'character' of Connewitz (this community of Leipzig). It's on the south end of Leipzig. Half of the suburb is the 'wild' part of town (an authentic wooded area and a animal park with deer, bison, etc). The other half of Connewitz is a place that was left out of serious renovation and work since the Wall came down thirty years ago.
Locals will say that the community now amounts to 1,500 meters by 1,500 meters, and filled with an odd group of residents. Some are the older generation who grew up there....some are university students....some are anarchists or wannabe-anarchists.....and some are the down and out crowd.
The city authority decided (probably more than five years ago) to put some projects up and Connewitz was going to be something different in the future. So here lies this problem because one element of the small suburb is the anarchists (left-wing and anti-capitalists). They were happy with the 'look' of their region and didn't want the city messing up the appeal of Connewitz.
You can be amused by this stance, but thats basically what has led to the 15-million Euro of damage, is extending the construction project into months, and probably even an extra year or two, and will depend greatly from this point on additional security/police action.
From what MDR (the public TV folks from this region) says....the city has called up the German national terrorism center, and they want federal action. What'll happen now? The anarchist element is going to have some database created and members are going to likely end on some 'watch-list' and federal charges will be recommended as they proceed down this path.
More fires? Oh, I'd wager that will be part of the story for 2020. The mayor might even beg off another couple dozen cop positions for his city. And there's likely to be some little 'battle' erupting from this future path plan.
All of this leads me to the 'kettle boiling' topic. There is continually in Germany today, this element of the country who wants to lead you to their version of a utopia and paradise, and another element who is on the road to their utopia and paradise, and these two groups refuse to participate in joint projects. And the public is in the middle....mostly amused or frustrated.
So the fire department in Leipzig got a call....small fire activity in the area of Connewitz. Renovation area (construction zone) fire.
They arrive. The fire is put out. Cops and firemen are satisfied. Then they pack up and leave.
Fire is re-started. Yes, amazing enough....the 'gang' wasn't finished yet.
What the police say as they arrive for the 2nd time....roughly a group of fifty people in some anti-social activity...firecrackers involved, and things being thrown (both beer/wine bottles and paving stones).
Some folks are getting injured and this is getting way out of hand. Even the police cars, parked along the disturbance area....are being damaged by the paving stones and bottles.
Cops go into action and a number of folks are arrested. One guy was arrested for throwing things at the police, but the other dozen-odd folks arrested...were mostly on the charges of drug possession (yep), resisting arrest, and insulting the police. Germany has a nifty law on insults to the police and it doesn't take much to cross the line for that 'trouble'.
Here's the thing....this is the 4th fire in Leipzig in the past month in the renovation zone. Right now, the contracted team figures a minimum of 15 million Euro of damage done, with the insurance companies likely in a hyped-up fit over this reoccurring.
This now leads back to the political establishment in Leipzig and the finger-pointing over what is going on here. It's added weeks and months onto the construction project, along with cost escalating, and likely high demands for more protection along this zone.
I sat this morning and reviewed the 'character' of Connewitz (this community of Leipzig). It's on the south end of Leipzig. Half of the suburb is the 'wild' part of town (an authentic wooded area and a animal park with deer, bison, etc). The other half of Connewitz is a place that was left out of serious renovation and work since the Wall came down thirty years ago.
Locals will say that the community now amounts to 1,500 meters by 1,500 meters, and filled with an odd group of residents. Some are the older generation who grew up there....some are university students....some are anarchists or wannabe-anarchists.....and some are the down and out crowd.
The city authority decided (probably more than five years ago) to put some projects up and Connewitz was going to be something different in the future. So here lies this problem because one element of the small suburb is the anarchists (left-wing and anti-capitalists). They were happy with the 'look' of their region and didn't want the city messing up the appeal of Connewitz.
You can be amused by this stance, but thats basically what has led to the 15-million Euro of damage, is extending the construction project into months, and probably even an extra year or two, and will depend greatly from this point on additional security/police action.
From what MDR (the public TV folks from this region) says....the city has called up the German national terrorism center, and they want federal action. What'll happen now? The anarchist element is going to have some database created and members are going to likely end on some 'watch-list' and federal charges will be recommended as they proceed down this path.
More fires? Oh, I'd wager that will be part of the story for 2020. The mayor might even beg off another couple dozen cop positions for his city. And there's likely to be some little 'battle' erupting from this future path plan.
All of this leads me to the 'kettle boiling' topic. There is continually in Germany today, this element of the country who wants to lead you to their version of a utopia and paradise, and another element who is on the road to their utopia and paradise, and these two groups refuse to participate in joint projects. And the public is in the middle....mostly amused or frustrated.
Saturday, October 26, 2019
Karl-Eduard von Schnitzler and His Legacy
If you bring up his name with most west Germans.....99-percent have no idea who he is. If you bring his name with eastern Germans under fifty years old....almost no one knows him or his significance. But then you go to the eastern Germans who are approach mid-50s or more, and they kinda grin for a minute. With them....Karl is remembered.
In the late 1930s, coming from a well-to-do family in Berlin.....Karl was destined for the medical profession. A year or two into this....Karl kinda got frustrated with the medical study business, and jumped ship. His new interest? Business...along the logistical side of commerce. This lasted for basically a year and then he was drafted into the German Army.
There's not a lot said about the next six years except in 1944....Karl ends up captured by the British near Normandy.
For some unknown reason, Karl gets side-tracked with the Brits, and ends up as a employee of the BBC in Germany. Maybe it was his voice....his tactful wit....or just plain luck. But he's a radio-jockey for the British sector in the north as the war ends. Karl moves up and by the early part of 1946, he's moved to Koln and considered prime-management materiel.
But here's the thing about Karl, in 1946, in his mid-20's.....he has been put into the politics department of the Koln radio network, and it's more than a bit obvious that he's left-leaning (maybe to the extreme of communism). Maybe it was his youth in Berlin, or just the guys he hung out with during the war period....but he's a out-spoken critic of the way things are shaping up in West Germany in 1946.
By 1947, Karl has been fired from the BBC services.
Karl packs up and ends up moving east....across into the Soviet zone of Germany, and in 1948....is a member of the East German Communist Party. Things are looking good, and he's hired-up with the radio services. Karl is probably pretty happy at this point....getting a chance daily to criticism western influence, democracy, and capitalism. As a propagandist....he's got a wide-open platform.
So around 1960, East Germany has to go and compete against West Germany....creating a TV network, and Karl gets his big chance....running a TV show for 20 minutes on Monday nights.
The show? Der Schwarze Kanal (The Black Channel). They basically go, cut-and-paste, and compact twenty minutes of western-video from western Europe, West Germany, and the US....condemning the evil actions of capitalism.
Lets be kinda honest here....if you lived in East Germany, and there's only one network....you kinda watch what they have, and simple be happy to get 'anything'.
This show ran from 1960 all the way to 1989 (29 years). Karl would probably tell you that he was a household name. The reality is....whether the numbers told are correct or not....roughly only 5-percent of the population ever watched his slam on capitalism and West Germany.
But here's the thing....while Karl was so far to the left and Communism....some people took to watching Karl's show and would openly remark that they felt Karl was only doing fake criticism and satire. Yes, it was such an unbelievable act, that even if you tried to take it serious.....people tended to feel otherwise. This is what I refer to....as the 'opposite-opposite' syndrome.
It's like watching Trump so much, that you tend to laugh, but then you feel in your gut that he's only telling you the truth. You get the same feeling with Macron of France....that he's part of comical French act, but maybe he's got some hidden message in his chatter. Some Germans will even suggest that Chancellor Merkel is such a mess.....that you feel like laughing but you keep thinking she's got some blunt element of truth in her final product.
Occasionally, some German journalist or historian will bring up Karl, and his Monday night show. There's no doubt that it was pure and absolute propaganda....slamming capitalism, Western landscapes, politics, and democracy. But if you watched enough of it....maybe you felt all that propaganda was just fake, and maybe it was satire (when it wasn't).
Some satirists in Germany today will even go and suggest certain evening hosts of ARD and ZDF (the public TV networks) have their own versions of Karl on....delivering news and propaganda....with people now convinced that they are faking up the news enough and that it's more or less satire (when it's not).
So here we are....Karl's been dead now for roughly 18 years, and remembered mostly for propaganda....or maybe truthful satire, depending on your view.
In the late 1930s, coming from a well-to-do family in Berlin.....Karl was destined for the medical profession. A year or two into this....Karl kinda got frustrated with the medical study business, and jumped ship. His new interest? Business...along the logistical side of commerce. This lasted for basically a year and then he was drafted into the German Army.
There's not a lot said about the next six years except in 1944....Karl ends up captured by the British near Normandy.
For some unknown reason, Karl gets side-tracked with the Brits, and ends up as a employee of the BBC in Germany. Maybe it was his voice....his tactful wit....or just plain luck. But he's a radio-jockey for the British sector in the north as the war ends. Karl moves up and by the early part of 1946, he's moved to Koln and considered prime-management materiel.
But here's the thing about Karl, in 1946, in his mid-20's.....he has been put into the politics department of the Koln radio network, and it's more than a bit obvious that he's left-leaning (maybe to the extreme of communism). Maybe it was his youth in Berlin, or just the guys he hung out with during the war period....but he's a out-spoken critic of the way things are shaping up in West Germany in 1946.
By 1947, Karl has been fired from the BBC services.
Karl packs up and ends up moving east....across into the Soviet zone of Germany, and in 1948....is a member of the East German Communist Party. Things are looking good, and he's hired-up with the radio services. Karl is probably pretty happy at this point....getting a chance daily to criticism western influence, democracy, and capitalism. As a propagandist....he's got a wide-open platform.
So around 1960, East Germany has to go and compete against West Germany....creating a TV network, and Karl gets his big chance....running a TV show for 20 minutes on Monday nights.
The show? Der Schwarze Kanal (The Black Channel). They basically go, cut-and-paste, and compact twenty minutes of western-video from western Europe, West Germany, and the US....condemning the evil actions of capitalism.
Lets be kinda honest here....if you lived in East Germany, and there's only one network....you kinda watch what they have, and simple be happy to get 'anything'.
This show ran from 1960 all the way to 1989 (29 years). Karl would probably tell you that he was a household name. The reality is....whether the numbers told are correct or not....roughly only 5-percent of the population ever watched his slam on capitalism and West Germany.
But here's the thing....while Karl was so far to the left and Communism....some people took to watching Karl's show and would openly remark that they felt Karl was only doing fake criticism and satire. Yes, it was such an unbelievable act, that even if you tried to take it serious.....people tended to feel otherwise. This is what I refer to....as the 'opposite-opposite' syndrome.
It's like watching Trump so much, that you tend to laugh, but then you feel in your gut that he's only telling you the truth. You get the same feeling with Macron of France....that he's part of comical French act, but maybe he's got some hidden message in his chatter. Some Germans will even suggest that Chancellor Merkel is such a mess.....that you feel like laughing but you keep thinking she's got some blunt element of truth in her final product.
Occasionally, some German journalist or historian will bring up Karl, and his Monday night show. There's no doubt that it was pure and absolute propaganda....slamming capitalism, Western landscapes, politics, and democracy. But if you watched enough of it....maybe you felt all that propaganda was just fake, and maybe it was satire (when it wasn't).
Some satirists in Germany today will even go and suggest certain evening hosts of ARD and ZDF (the public TV networks) have their own versions of Karl on....delivering news and propaganda....with people now convinced that they are faking up the news enough and that it's more or less satire (when it's not).
So here we are....Karl's been dead now for roughly 18 years, and remembered mostly for propaganda....or maybe truthful satire, depending on your view.
The Brochure
So today, I got this brochure in the mail. They wanted me to feel some guilt and do my part for the climate crisis.
So it's listed....what it takes in terms of C02 for a trip from Frankfurt to Hamburg.
In simple terms, they tell me that I really shouldn't fly or drive a SUV up to Hamburg....that without any guilt, I can make the trip via the German railway system.
A normal trip? The flight is 65 minutes, with a 75-odd minute security walk. You can figure at least 40 minutes upon landing to do the exit walk and pick up a bag. Total cost, for a R/T is 100 Euro (via Lufthansa). Note, this is the off-season.
The railway trip? Four hours, if nothing goes wrong, and no delays occur. Cost? For me and the discount card....around 35 Euro for 2nd class seats and another 5 Euro for reserving the seat......one-way.
If I were driving? It's a 5 hour and 19 minute trip under ideal conditions. Toss weather, construction work, and accidents along the way, with a 30-minute pause in the middle? It's near 7.5 hours....more or less.
Given a choice, I'd drive in most cases.
But what I find interesting is the graphic in the brochure, and the attempt to make you feel guilty over C02 usage. Is it correct? What they will say is that they use safe energy and there's no C02 in the transport side of this 'game'. The massive amount of C02 used to build the train, the tracks, and keep it operational? Yeah, that element is missing.
Will this work with Germans? Some Germans will profess that they feel guilt. The majority of the other Germans will tell you that they fell no guilt. If you wanted to categorize this group of no-guilt Germans...they are the working-class without the higher university 'anchor'. They don't watch public TV news much, and they have other worries or woes on their mind.
In the end, this is about selling you something....that either you want to buy, or simply discard in the garbage.
Economic Slide
There's this index, the GfK Consumer Climate Index, which looks at Germans and their 'gut' feeling over the future and the economic turns.
This week, the index came out and suggested that German consumers aren't that happy over the future expectations.
The likelihood of Germans buying significant items in their life? It went down a notch.
Chief reasons? It goes beyond BREXIT, and includes global trading, tariff conflicts with the US, and just general shifts.
Long-term or short-term? Nope, you can't get that type of information out of the index. It would be safe to say a recession is underway, but you can't say that it'll resolve itself in 2020.
The German unemployment rate? As of August, it was 3.1-percent. Back in mid-2015, it was around 5-percent. It wouldn't be a big deal if it rose 1-percent....if you go and look at overall numbers right now. Going up to the 6 or 7 percent level? It would have a harsh affect on politics.
Just something to think about.
This week, the index came out and suggested that German consumers aren't that happy over the future expectations.
The likelihood of Germans buying significant items in their life? It went down a notch.
Chief reasons? It goes beyond BREXIT, and includes global trading, tariff conflicts with the US, and just general shifts.
Long-term or short-term? Nope, you can't get that type of information out of the index. It would be safe to say a recession is underway, but you can't say that it'll resolve itself in 2020.
The German unemployment rate? As of August, it was 3.1-percent. Back in mid-2015, it was around 5-percent. It wouldn't be a big deal if it rose 1-percent....if you go and look at overall numbers right now. Going up to the 6 or 7 percent level? It would have a harsh affect on politics.
Just something to think about.
Friday, October 25, 2019
The Assembalance of a Demonstration
In Germany, there's this general rule by the police. If you don't register the demonstration....the cops quickly arrive and deny you the right to the demonstration.
I know....it's a silly rule, but it kinda lays out what is going to be acceptable. They probably aren't going to allow you to do this in a rush-hour period, and assembling on a autobahn just isn't going to happen.
So apparently this week, an assembalance of a demonstration started up....with African refugee folks in Wiesbaden (maybe 30 to 40). It appears no one did the registration business, and the cops came quickly on the scene to lay out the basic rules on this. The assembled group at that point, apparently drifted off and that was the end of any real demonstration.
My German wife had an associate who had some second knowledge of the event, and there was this one funny part about the demonstration.
This group (all refugees from Africa) wanted the German authorities (this was the intention of the demonstration) on expectations dropped for them identifying their nationality, or providing an ID for asylum paperwork. They basically figured out that it didn't matter that you travel by foot across half-of-Africa, and walked a 1,000 kilometers from Spain through France, to reach Germany.....you still had to do the paperwork for asylum, and your odds of passing the visa evaluation are not that great.
So in their mind, without the ID requirement, there is no visa evaluation, and you (the German authorities) just hand them a plain regular visa-slip. In simple terms.....they have zero intention of ever going back to the homeland.
Last night, via public TV (ZDF), there was a 8-minute piece where a German journalist went to the coast of Spain and tracked the new African-trail which leads from the coast where they land on a small wooden boat they bought.....with the help of the Spanish Red Cross, to make their way through Spain, and reach the French border.
Then in France, the French Red Cross steps in, and provides more aid, to get them all the way to the German border.
The EU rules? It's funny about the rules.....where you land, is where you document yourself, and where you 'stay'. You don't cherry-pick your land. In this case, they are avoiding Spain and France....mostly because Germany has the premium benefits.
I can understand the perception here....there's a ton of effort to get across the bulk of Africa, then cross the Med, then go through Spain and France, to reach Germany. None of these people have any intention of going back. Yet the Germans have that thing about paperwork, and evaluations.
If you don't speak the language....show no real work or job skills....your only fallback position is to be from some land with a civil war or claim you are gay and harassed in your homeland. Beyond that....evaluations rarely ever get approved.
I know....it's a silly rule, but it kinda lays out what is going to be acceptable. They probably aren't going to allow you to do this in a rush-hour period, and assembling on a autobahn just isn't going to happen.
So apparently this week, an assembalance of a demonstration started up....with African refugee folks in Wiesbaden (maybe 30 to 40). It appears no one did the registration business, and the cops came quickly on the scene to lay out the basic rules on this. The assembled group at that point, apparently drifted off and that was the end of any real demonstration.
My German wife had an associate who had some second knowledge of the event, and there was this one funny part about the demonstration.
This group (all refugees from Africa) wanted the German authorities (this was the intention of the demonstration) on expectations dropped for them identifying their nationality, or providing an ID for asylum paperwork. They basically figured out that it didn't matter that you travel by foot across half-of-Africa, and walked a 1,000 kilometers from Spain through France, to reach Germany.....you still had to do the paperwork for asylum, and your odds of passing the visa evaluation are not that great.
So in their mind, without the ID requirement, there is no visa evaluation, and you (the German authorities) just hand them a plain regular visa-slip. In simple terms.....they have zero intention of ever going back to the homeland.
Last night, via public TV (ZDF), there was a 8-minute piece where a German journalist went to the coast of Spain and tracked the new African-trail which leads from the coast where they land on a small wooden boat they bought.....with the help of the Spanish Red Cross, to make their way through Spain, and reach the French border.
Then in France, the French Red Cross steps in, and provides more aid, to get them all the way to the German border.
The EU rules? It's funny about the rules.....where you land, is where you document yourself, and where you 'stay'. You don't cherry-pick your land. In this case, they are avoiding Spain and France....mostly because Germany has the premium benefits.
I can understand the perception here....there's a ton of effort to get across the bulk of Africa, then cross the Med, then go through Spain and France, to reach Germany. None of these people have any intention of going back. Yet the Germans have that thing about paperwork, and evaluations.
If you don't speak the language....show no real work or job skills....your only fallback position is to be from some land with a civil war or claim you are gay and harassed in your homeland. Beyond that....evaluations rarely ever get approved.
The 39 Dead Chinese Folks
When this trailer-rig was found in the UK with dead bodies...the 39....it was assumed by a fair a amount of people that they were north African, or Afghan, or Pakistani. Rumors flew around for roughly 24 hours. Then the rumor was put to rest....they were all Chinese.
So some folks are a bit shocked (not just in the UK, but in Germany as well).
They aren't used to Chinese being in the smuggler group.
For several years, I've followed Chinese business segment, Chinese culture clashes, fake cities newly constructed, Chinese tourism in Germany and Europe, and economic 'pains' in China. If you live and work in the urbanized areas....great. If you are stuck in a highly rural area, your life isn't going anywhere, and getting smuggled to some new land might be the only plus-up in your life.
A couple of years ago....some Chinese tour group arrived in Germany and was on a two-week bus ride around the country. The Chinese tour guide was holding their passports.
They arrived one morning over at the Neuschwanstein Castle in Bavaria. The guide gave the fifty-odd folks roughly four hours to do the castle tour and possibly even the walk up to the hillside overlooking the castle. There's a bridge there, which crosses over to the next hill, and there's an abundance of trails there.
There was this Chinese couple that went to the hilltop and then quietly disappeared. The guide ended up calling the cops, and a search was mounted. The two were never found, and most believe they had some 'help' to disappear into the German countryside.
Germans say that you can't really hide in Germany, without a visa or paperwork. It's probably true that you can't buy a car, a house, or rent a place on your own....without some ID or visa. But after years of walking around Germany, I've come to the opinion that you could easily hide in plain sight.....with a little bit of help, and just not ask for an ID or permission to be here.
How many people exist this way in Germany? Unknown. You might speculate 10,000.....or perhaps even 200,000.
These 39 dead Chinese folks? I think they had this intention of trying to do that in the UK, and simply fell upon bad luck.
But this is the problem with the perception of people now....that staying in one's country, under harsh economic conditions...simply isn't going to work. So these people are willing to take risks that most of us would avoid.
Update: 27 Oct. Well, now the discussion is that most of these folks were from Vietnam.
So some folks are a bit shocked (not just in the UK, but in Germany as well).
They aren't used to Chinese being in the smuggler group.
For several years, I've followed Chinese business segment, Chinese culture clashes, fake cities newly constructed, Chinese tourism in Germany and Europe, and economic 'pains' in China. If you live and work in the urbanized areas....great. If you are stuck in a highly rural area, your life isn't going anywhere, and getting smuggled to some new land might be the only plus-up in your life.
A couple of years ago....some Chinese tour group arrived in Germany and was on a two-week bus ride around the country. The Chinese tour guide was holding their passports.
They arrived one morning over at the Neuschwanstein Castle in Bavaria. The guide gave the fifty-odd folks roughly four hours to do the castle tour and possibly even the walk up to the hillside overlooking the castle. There's a bridge there, which crosses over to the next hill, and there's an abundance of trails there.
There was this Chinese couple that went to the hilltop and then quietly disappeared. The guide ended up calling the cops, and a search was mounted. The two were never found, and most believe they had some 'help' to disappear into the German countryside.
Germans say that you can't really hide in Germany, without a visa or paperwork. It's probably true that you can't buy a car, a house, or rent a place on your own....without some ID or visa. But after years of walking around Germany, I've come to the opinion that you could easily hide in plain sight.....with a little bit of help, and just not ask for an ID or permission to be here.
How many people exist this way in Germany? Unknown. You might speculate 10,000.....or perhaps even 200,000.
These 39 dead Chinese folks? I think they had this intention of trying to do that in the UK, and simply fell upon bad luck.
But this is the problem with the perception of people now....that staying in one's country, under harsh economic conditions...simply isn't going to work. So these people are willing to take risks that most of us would avoid.
Update: 27 Oct. Well, now the discussion is that most of these folks were from Vietnam.
That NATO and Turkey Question
Yep, it finally came up in the German Bundestag....should Turkey be led out of NATO. It was a SPD political figure who made the speech and suggested that with all this 'trouble'....maybe it was time to force them out.
If you go back to 1952....Turkey has been in NATO, and other than the mid-1970s when the Cyprus business came up.....that's been the only period where people in Europe asked questions over the membership.
Will this German position be picked up and moved forward? I doubt it. The CDU doesn't want to generate any negativity with Turkey because it'd just go and trigger the release of 3-million Syrian refugees, and they'd suddenly arrive in Germany to create the next mass refugee problem.
But the Greens and Linke Party will probably talk about this in the open, and create a Turkish response.
I will add this funny footnote on the NATO chatter. AKK (the German Defense Minister) had this brilliant idea over the weekend....that Germany (with the NATO apparatus behind it) could come into northern Syria and provide peace-keeper 'forces'.
Well.....this German military 'show' for northern Syria was rapidly discussed within the SPD, and they were fairly negative and frustrated with the idea. 'No way' could be described as the response.
Then AKK showed up three days later at a NATO conference, and voiced the idea. Guess what....NATO didn't really want to discuss the idea either. Primary factor? Well, guess what.....the US has zero interest in being a peace-keeper in the region. The Brits? Zero interest.
So maybe it'll be discussed here in Germany, and maybe they (the Germans) could partner up with China or India....to make something happen, but I seriously doubt that this idea gets brought up again.
If you go back to 1952....Turkey has been in NATO, and other than the mid-1970s when the Cyprus business came up.....that's been the only period where people in Europe asked questions over the membership.
Will this German position be picked up and moved forward? I doubt it. The CDU doesn't want to generate any negativity with Turkey because it'd just go and trigger the release of 3-million Syrian refugees, and they'd suddenly arrive in Germany to create the next mass refugee problem.
But the Greens and Linke Party will probably talk about this in the open, and create a Turkish response.
I will add this funny footnote on the NATO chatter. AKK (the German Defense Minister) had this brilliant idea over the weekend....that Germany (with the NATO apparatus behind it) could come into northern Syria and provide peace-keeper 'forces'.
Well.....this German military 'show' for northern Syria was rapidly discussed within the SPD, and they were fairly negative and frustrated with the idea. 'No way' could be described as the response.
Then AKK showed up three days later at a NATO conference, and voiced the idea. Guess what....NATO didn't really want to discuss the idea either. Primary factor? Well, guess what.....the US has zero interest in being a peace-keeper in the region. The Brits? Zero interest.
So maybe it'll be discussed here in Germany, and maybe they (the Germans) could partner up with China or India....to make something happen, but I seriously doubt that this idea gets brought up again.
ADAC Story
There was a three-liner news piece today from various sources.....leading back to ADAC (the German Automobile Club).
For most Americans who were ever stationed in Germany....ADAC was this little service that was always worth the money. If you were broke down.....you called ADAC, and within an hour or two....some ADAC mechanic would show up and respond to your broken car issue.
In most cases, this usually led to a woeful situation...your car would have to be towed, but this would be 'free of charge' to the next garage (the fee would kick in if you wanted it nearer your town or post). The evaluation or temp resolution for your car? Free....as long as you were a member of ADAC. The plus side of this was that ADAC's mechanic would get you to the nearest train station....free of charge.
So it came out today that membership dues are going up. The journalists tried make it sound significant or painful....but the current rate for basic membership is around 49 Euro a year, and the new price (to occur in 2020) would be only 54 Euro. For the premium membership (with the extras), it'll rise to 94 euro (10 Euro increase).
Maybe on percentages, it's a hefty rise. But lets be honest, even if you only have to call them up once every three years....it's worth the money.
For most Americans who were ever stationed in Germany....ADAC was this little service that was always worth the money. If you were broke down.....you called ADAC, and within an hour or two....some ADAC mechanic would show up and respond to your broken car issue.
In most cases, this usually led to a woeful situation...your car would have to be towed, but this would be 'free of charge' to the next garage (the fee would kick in if you wanted it nearer your town or post). The evaluation or temp resolution for your car? Free....as long as you were a member of ADAC. The plus side of this was that ADAC's mechanic would get you to the nearest train station....free of charge.
So it came out today that membership dues are going up. The journalists tried make it sound significant or painful....but the current rate for basic membership is around 49 Euro a year, and the new price (to occur in 2020) would be only 54 Euro. For the premium membership (with the extras), it'll rise to 94 euro (10 Euro increase).
Maybe on percentages, it's a hefty rise. But lets be honest, even if you only have to call them up once every three years....it's worth the money.
Book Chatter
There's a book which came out around four weeks ago in Germany....entitled: 'A Teacher Sees Red', by Doris Unzeitig. 250 pages, but only available in German and in paperback form.
It's the story of this Austrian woman (Unzeitig herself) who left the homeland and came to Germany to be a teacher (around a decade ago). She came to Berlin and quickly was accepted as a teacher. She quit in 2018, and the landscape for that decision is quietly laid out in this book.
I read a good long review of the book over at Focus today.
What Unzeitig talks about is the violence, and failures of the school system in Berlin. The term 'ghetto school' probably fits very well into the landscape.
Police operations are now considered the norm in these urbanized schools. Teachers are fearful and worried. Kids are out-of-control. Students are marginally progressing, and the minimum use of German as a language promises to hinder society in the future.
The book will be discussed a good bit....maybe even get a public TV forum show, but it's revealing itself to be one of those top five problems facing the German public today.
Recruiting teachers into these urbanized areas now? One might wonder how they can accomplish this, and if they have to start leaving Germany to find non-Germans to teach.
It's the story of this Austrian woman (Unzeitig herself) who left the homeland and came to Germany to be a teacher (around a decade ago). She came to Berlin and quickly was accepted as a teacher. She quit in 2018, and the landscape for that decision is quietly laid out in this book.
I read a good long review of the book over at Focus today.
What Unzeitig talks about is the violence, and failures of the school system in Berlin. The term 'ghetto school' probably fits very well into the landscape.
Police operations are now considered the norm in these urbanized schools. Teachers are fearful and worried. Kids are out-of-control. Students are marginally progressing, and the minimum use of German as a language promises to hinder society in the future.
The book will be discussed a good bit....maybe even get a public TV forum show, but it's revealing itself to be one of those top five problems facing the German public today.
Recruiting teachers into these urbanized areas now? One might wonder how they can accomplish this, and if they have to start leaving Germany to find non-Germans to teach.
Thursday, October 24, 2019
Police Raids Today
I often talk about organized crime and crime clans in Germany.
This morning....lot of action going on with the German federal police.
With the basic story from various sites....it appears that around 400 federal police are on a raid action this morning....involving Lebanese crime families in Germany.
Four states are mentioned: Berlin, NRW, Saarland, and the Pflaz. At least 28 houses or businesses are being searched (16 of them in the Pfalz).
No mention yet on crimes or suspected action going on.
Update: Cops now say this is related to people-smuggling.
This morning....lot of action going on with the German federal police.
With the basic story from various sites....it appears that around 400 federal police are on a raid action this morning....involving Lebanese crime families in Germany.
Four states are mentioned: Berlin, NRW, Saarland, and the Pflaz. At least 28 houses or businesses are being searched (16 of them in the Pfalz).
No mention yet on crimes or suspected action going on.
Update: Cops now say this is related to people-smuggling.
Time Health Problems
This weekend...I have to sit and patiently assist my German wife in getting over Daylight Savings Time (DST).
The German health insurance companies have all come to agree that roughly one-third of the German population has a serious problem in adjusting to the time-shift. Panic, anxiety, stress, and angst.....all bundled up into one single day and the shift of one single hour.
Germany didn't get into this scheme until 1916 (the WW I period) and ran it briefly for 3 years. No one talks much over the necessarily of ending it...other than the war ending, and it didn't make any sense to continue this.
Around 1940....it came back again and was used for roughly nine years (ending in 1949). Again, public sentiment was strong enough to terminate it.
It came back in 1980, as part of the fuel crisis solutions.
Today, if you walked around and asked....more than three-quarters of the German population are not just mildly anti-DST.....they are strongly against it.
In handling my wife, it takes roughly an entire week for her internal clock to reset, and it'll be mentioned at least ten times per day about this shift being unnecessary. Across the nation....I would imagine its the same story.
The German health insurance companies have all come to agree that roughly one-third of the German population has a serious problem in adjusting to the time-shift. Panic, anxiety, stress, and angst.....all bundled up into one single day and the shift of one single hour.
Germany didn't get into this scheme until 1916 (the WW I period) and ran it briefly for 3 years. No one talks much over the necessarily of ending it...other than the war ending, and it didn't make any sense to continue this.
Around 1940....it came back again and was used for roughly nine years (ending in 1949). Again, public sentiment was strong enough to terminate it.
It came back in 1980, as part of the fuel crisis solutions.
Today, if you walked around and asked....more than three-quarters of the German population are not just mildly anti-DST.....they are strongly against it.
In handling my wife, it takes roughly an entire week for her internal clock to reset, and it'll be mentioned at least ten times per day about this shift being unnecessary. Across the nation....I would imagine its the same story.
Now, The Bear Picture
A few days ago, I essayed a piece on the finding of fresh bear 'poo'.
Well....today, some German forest 'adventurer' with a sensor camera....has the first real picture of a brown bear wandering through the woods of Garmisch-Partenkirchen.
For geography location? Garmisch is the vacation 'magnet' for tourists into the far south of Germany...about 70 minutes driving SW of Munich. You'd best describe the entire region as heavily forested and mountainous. This is where you go in the winter period to ski.
The last known location? The Balderschwang valley area....about 85 km (a 20 hour hike for a human). So it's probably the same bear....just a week later.
The pro-environmentalist chatter? They are already hyping that harming the bear is definitely a bad thing.
At what point will BILD (the national newspaper) start a naming 'game'? I would suspect by this weekend....some suggestion box will be started. The last bear (killed in 2006), was Bruno. This bear might end being name Barney, Ben, or Bill (something about the B's, you know).
The divided nature of Germans? Well, on one side are the farmers and pet owners who reside in the region, and just can't accept bears in Germany. On the other side are the pro-environmental types who want multiple bears walking freely (even if someone ends up dead each year). This hype will progress, until some Bavarian political folks say enough....then hire up some Finnish guys to do some bear hunting (like last time).
Might be worth watching this for a while. As for the picture? You can go over to this site and see the bear image.
Well....today, some German forest 'adventurer' with a sensor camera....has the first real picture of a brown bear wandering through the woods of Garmisch-Partenkirchen.
For geography location? Garmisch is the vacation 'magnet' for tourists into the far south of Germany...about 70 minutes driving SW of Munich. You'd best describe the entire region as heavily forested and mountainous. This is where you go in the winter period to ski.
The last known location? The Balderschwang valley area....about 85 km (a 20 hour hike for a human). So it's probably the same bear....just a week later.
The pro-environmentalist chatter? They are already hyping that harming the bear is definitely a bad thing.
At what point will BILD (the national newspaper) start a naming 'game'? I would suspect by this weekend....some suggestion box will be started. The last bear (killed in 2006), was Bruno. This bear might end being name Barney, Ben, or Bill (something about the B's, you know).
The divided nature of Germans? Well, on one side are the farmers and pet owners who reside in the region, and just can't accept bears in Germany. On the other side are the pro-environmental types who want multiple bears walking freely (even if someone ends up dead each year). This hype will progress, until some Bavarian political folks say enough....then hire up some Finnish guys to do some bear hunting (like last time).
Might be worth watching this for a while. As for the picture? You can go over to this site and see the bear image.
More Amri Chatter
There is this little story....maybe four lines at the very most....hidden in the German news this morning.
So, if you remember this Anis Amri character....the Tunisian guy who used a tractor trailer in Berlin around Christmas of 2016 to kill a dozen Germans, and wound almost 60 people....his name came up again today.
For various reasons, there just keeps coming up a piece here and there about his background, his criminal activities, and associates. Here we are...almost three years since that attack, and there's still oddball things that come out.
Today's piece? There was this picture on his cellphone of a house. It's a selfie shot. The residence? Well....it's the Berlin home for Chancellor Merkel.
The suggestion here, which journalists will basically review and lay out in simple terms....he was evaluating targets. There's pretty good odds that he was thinking over an attack involving that house or the Chancellor herself. In the end, he probably evaluated the impact and choose the Christmas Market.
Why bring this up now? No one says much about this. Maybe it was a leak, or maybe some team has decided to upgrade the security for the Chancellor.
So, if you remember this Anis Amri character....the Tunisian guy who used a tractor trailer in Berlin around Christmas of 2016 to kill a dozen Germans, and wound almost 60 people....his name came up again today.
For various reasons, there just keeps coming up a piece here and there about his background, his criminal activities, and associates. Here we are...almost three years since that attack, and there's still oddball things that come out.
Today's piece? There was this picture on his cellphone of a house. It's a selfie shot. The residence? Well....it's the Berlin home for Chancellor Merkel.
The suggestion here, which journalists will basically review and lay out in simple terms....he was evaluating targets. There's pretty good odds that he was thinking over an attack involving that house or the Chancellor herself. In the end, he probably evaluated the impact and choose the Christmas Market.
Why bring this up now? No one says much about this. Maybe it was a leak, or maybe some team has decided to upgrade the security for the Chancellor.
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Documentary Advice
Last night (Tuesday), via ZDF (Channel Two of the German public TV spectrum), they ran a documentary show at 8:15 PM called 'Legacy of Trust'. It was a 45-minute piece which talked about the end of the DDR (East Germany), and how the companies/factories that existed from 1945 to 1990....came to a sudden conclusion.
I strongly recommend the piece (entirely in German) because it really does talk about the expectations of the East Germans, and how they really got the raw 'end' of the stick after the Wall collapsed. It's worth watching.
We might as well be humble and admit....that just about everything that was within DDR for that 45-year period was 'fake'. Factories hired people to manage things, but you could have put an idiot in charge of a soap factory, and it really didn't matter. You could say that you were producing 40 cars a day via, 3,000 employees....when you had a 7-year waiting period for customers to get their ordered vehicles....it just didn't matter. If you did make third-rate chocolate....well, it didn't matter. You didn't have real competition, so that marginal chocolate was better than nothing.
The documentary team did a great job of going back to the people of that period, and talking over their expectations....then waking up one day to find that the factory wasn't going to exist, and there was no plan 'B' for people to be happily employed. Blame? Well....it goes back to Chancellor Kohl, and the team around him. They balanced the books, reviewed quality of the products, and basically made the decision to shut down the vast number of production facilities in East Germany.
If people had known this end of the deal before the Wall came down? I would go and speculate that most would have preferred for the Wall to remain.
Some business ventures continued on. Some breweries survived. Some distillery operations continued on. Vita Cola is still around (not in great numbers but still, it survived). Rondo coffee is still around. Zeha sports shoes? They almost died out, but then they found this odd life as a luxury shoe for the upper class. Spreewald Gurkens? They survive on today and still considered a good dill pickle.
The rest? They just dissolved away.
It's not a top ten or even a top hundred topic with most Germans. But it does explain this hostility that still brews in eastern Germany, and why life has never really moved on.
I strongly recommend the piece (entirely in German) because it really does talk about the expectations of the East Germans, and how they really got the raw 'end' of the stick after the Wall collapsed. It's worth watching.
We might as well be humble and admit....that just about everything that was within DDR for that 45-year period was 'fake'. Factories hired people to manage things, but you could have put an idiot in charge of a soap factory, and it really didn't matter. You could say that you were producing 40 cars a day via, 3,000 employees....when you had a 7-year waiting period for customers to get their ordered vehicles....it just didn't matter. If you did make third-rate chocolate....well, it didn't matter. You didn't have real competition, so that marginal chocolate was better than nothing.
The documentary team did a great job of going back to the people of that period, and talking over their expectations....then waking up one day to find that the factory wasn't going to exist, and there was no plan 'B' for people to be happily employed. Blame? Well....it goes back to Chancellor Kohl, and the team around him. They balanced the books, reviewed quality of the products, and basically made the decision to shut down the vast number of production facilities in East Germany.
If people had known this end of the deal before the Wall came down? I would go and speculate that most would have preferred for the Wall to remain.
Some business ventures continued on. Some breweries survived. Some distillery operations continued on. Vita Cola is still around (not in great numbers but still, it survived). Rondo coffee is still around. Zeha sports shoes? They almost died out, but then they found this odd life as a luxury shoe for the upper class. Spreewald Gurkens? They survive on today and still considered a good dill pickle.
The rest? They just dissolved away.
It's not a top ten or even a top hundred topic with most Germans. But it does explain this hostility that still brews in eastern Germany, and why life has never really moved on.
Forum Chatter
"Who needs journalists? In Germany, politicians are interviewing themselves in an attempt to reach voters directly. Press advocates say the trend poses a risk to traditional journalism — and even democracy itself."
-- Deutsche Welle (23 Oct 2019) Rosalia Romaniec, Kay-Alexander Scholz
It's an interesting opening for an article up on DW today. Over the past six years, I've followed the German public forum chatter (via ARD and ZDF), and found that it presented on some rare occasions.....real dialog, and facts needed to understand a problem or development.
On other occasions, the forum was built in some way to 'sell' you a position, and limit your perception of the landscape.
But I also came to realize that a limited audience existed with the public TV forum business, and a large segment of German society simply bypassed the forum chatter, and this was mostly a 'short-sell'.
Lack of trust in the public TV business or the hyped-up participants? I would suggest that Germans have become like Americans, questioning facts, implying biased facts or coverage, and quietly hinting of fake-news (don't ever use the word around intellectuals or German journalists.....they freak out).
There's a Brit program that I generally like....where the BBC brings on five 'experts' (sometimes political folks, and sometimes journalists). The show? Question Time. The great part about this show is that they open up the talk to audience members, and suddenly you get a 60-second dialog which jabs straight into the heart of a subject, and changes the whole landscape of the understanding. These jabs? Well....they come from the audience.
So you look over at the German versions of public forums, and it's rare that you have interaction occur. They'd usually flip over to some assistant moderator who reads off Instagram or Twitter commentary during the show.....avoiding public direct contact to the German 'experts'. So you never have a clear understanding of how the public feels (if they were resentful, embittered, or disheartened).
Do the public forums help? I might argue in their favor, but there are so few people watching these....that you simply are helping a small group of people to sell a message across a minor part of Germany (82-million).
That Multiculturalism Statement
This Chancellor Merkel comment over multiculturalism 'failing'? She made the speech in the last couple of weeks to a youth contingent of the CDU Party, via a party conference in Potsdam. It was lightly covered in German public news, but often stated via international news networks.
It was a carefully worded statement....not to slam immigrants/migrants themselves, or the Bundestag, or even herself. She even hinted....the leadership didn't really believe that the migrants would come, and stay (note the combination in the wording). Then she kinda ended her speech with the comment that better assimilation needs to occur.
So, a reality check? I would offer these eight observations:
1. One of the parts of her speech tied into something that the former German President (Wulff) had said....that Islam was 'part' of Germany, in the same way as Judaism or Christianity was.
I might go and suggest that religions in any western nation (doesn't matter what type you use)....has to revolve around the state existing, a constitutional commitment of the general public, and overall respect for fellow members of the nation (not necessary the religion itself). Without the state....without the Constitutional respect, and without public trust....there is no freedom (particularly of religion).
2. There were two distinctive paths requiring the government to facilitate entry and a granted visa: wartime refugees (which the Syrians and Iraqis easily fitted into), and economic migrants (virtually everyone else). The German bureaucracy failed to grasp that, and began to allow secondary categories to exist with the wartime refugees (persecuted Afghans/Pakistanis).
Unlike the normal review and visa-issue rules before 2012......where you had to apply in your home-country and providing a regular ID/passport, now it was a secondary thing with the guy, gal, or family actually sitting in Germany itself, and often winking at the guy to profess that you didn't have an ID or passport.
In some ways, without thinking much about it....Germany made itself into a third-world republic, and the bureaucrats were simply juvenile kids pretending to be officials.
3. Blaming the crime situation upon those who came after 2013? That has been a rather stupid and childish way of handing the situation.
You could go and blame various crime clans/gangs now existing on various groups (Lebanese, Serbs, Russians, Albanians, Italians, Ukrainian, Bulgarian, and Romanian).
Suggesting integration on their part? No, they had crime agendas and political chatter has zero effect upon them.
4. The fact that an enormous number of new migrants simply disappeared into large metropolitan regions (Berlin, Frankfurt, Dusseldorf, Hamburg, etc)?
They found cluster groups to mingle with, and integration can be said...in simple fashion....as 'hit and miss'. You find some towns that absorbed 300 migrants over the past five years and 90-percent became integrated. You can find other cities where the programs were doomed from the start, and maybe only half of the migrants lifted themselves into an accepted level of integration.
5. The north African failed path? The pass-visa rates for most North Africans (mostly all men) back in 2016 was around 5-to-10 percent. The other 90-percent failed. Getting them to accept this reality and return to the homeland? That's made the whole process into a child-like game.
Without much hope on an appeal and change of visa....these people usually drift over to crime, disappear into urbanized communities or just move onto another EU country.
6. The idea of all migrants happy with fellow migrants? Oh please....that's such a joke. You can walk into a situation where Kurds are on one side of the room and Turks on the other....they won't mingle or accept either in 'trust'. You have various groups which can't function in a team-situation.
7. If you mingle in the public, Germans would like to go and 'fire' someone.....blame someone....for all of the incompetence demonstrated. They can't fire Merkel. They can seem to fire any Bundestag member. So the public belief is that you need to send a signal.....so they vote for the AfD Party.
All this hostility by CDU members, SPD folks, the Green Party, and journalists.....over the AfD? All you have to do is find the party guilty of the problems, and fire several members of their group, with them taking public shame (like the Japanese often do). But since no one wants that.....well, the AfD is the next best thing.
Here's the sad thing....I don't think the AfD Party has yet to peak out....which means there's still some hostile feeling brewing in the public.
8. Finally....a great deal of public negative sentiment goes back to the Koln New Year's Eve business of 2015. The city police leadership didn't want to admit the police reports turned in (1,000-plus for the evening), the involvement of so many North African young men, etc. Journalists from public TV (ARD and ZDF) didn't want to tell the story....up until the moment that the public said 'we lost respect for your brand of journalism'.
That next sixty days changed the whole prospective of accepting migrants and suggested that public safety was no longer a guaranteed thing.
The removal of the police chief? That was about as far as anyone was willing to go. The mayor and state premier all stayed around. Everyone just hoped that the public would forget the evening.
In some ways, I think that both Merkel and the coalition (the CDU and SPD) need to go away, and some massive political change needs to occur (avoiding the AfD dilemma). But with the national election in 2021, and political 'slant' as it is presently, it just leaves you shaking your head. There is no exit path....it's just more winding roads, and public discontent.
It was a carefully worded statement....not to slam immigrants/migrants themselves, or the Bundestag, or even herself. She even hinted....the leadership didn't really believe that the migrants would come, and stay (note the combination in the wording). Then she kinda ended her speech with the comment that better assimilation needs to occur.
So, a reality check? I would offer these eight observations:
1. One of the parts of her speech tied into something that the former German President (Wulff) had said....that Islam was 'part' of Germany, in the same way as Judaism or Christianity was.
I might go and suggest that religions in any western nation (doesn't matter what type you use)....has to revolve around the state existing, a constitutional commitment of the general public, and overall respect for fellow members of the nation (not necessary the religion itself). Without the state....without the Constitutional respect, and without public trust....there is no freedom (particularly of religion).
2. There were two distinctive paths requiring the government to facilitate entry and a granted visa: wartime refugees (which the Syrians and Iraqis easily fitted into), and economic migrants (virtually everyone else). The German bureaucracy failed to grasp that, and began to allow secondary categories to exist with the wartime refugees (persecuted Afghans/Pakistanis).
Unlike the normal review and visa-issue rules before 2012......where you had to apply in your home-country and providing a regular ID/passport, now it was a secondary thing with the guy, gal, or family actually sitting in Germany itself, and often winking at the guy to profess that you didn't have an ID or passport.
In some ways, without thinking much about it....Germany made itself into a third-world republic, and the bureaucrats were simply juvenile kids pretending to be officials.
3. Blaming the crime situation upon those who came after 2013? That has been a rather stupid and childish way of handing the situation.
You could go and blame various crime clans/gangs now existing on various groups (Lebanese, Serbs, Russians, Albanians, Italians, Ukrainian, Bulgarian, and Romanian).
Suggesting integration on their part? No, they had crime agendas and political chatter has zero effect upon them.
4. The fact that an enormous number of new migrants simply disappeared into large metropolitan regions (Berlin, Frankfurt, Dusseldorf, Hamburg, etc)?
They found cluster groups to mingle with, and integration can be said...in simple fashion....as 'hit and miss'. You find some towns that absorbed 300 migrants over the past five years and 90-percent became integrated. You can find other cities where the programs were doomed from the start, and maybe only half of the migrants lifted themselves into an accepted level of integration.
5. The north African failed path? The pass-visa rates for most North Africans (mostly all men) back in 2016 was around 5-to-10 percent. The other 90-percent failed. Getting them to accept this reality and return to the homeland? That's made the whole process into a child-like game.
Without much hope on an appeal and change of visa....these people usually drift over to crime, disappear into urbanized communities or just move onto another EU country.
6. The idea of all migrants happy with fellow migrants? Oh please....that's such a joke. You can walk into a situation where Kurds are on one side of the room and Turks on the other....they won't mingle or accept either in 'trust'. You have various groups which can't function in a team-situation.
7. If you mingle in the public, Germans would like to go and 'fire' someone.....blame someone....for all of the incompetence demonstrated. They can't fire Merkel. They can seem to fire any Bundestag member. So the public belief is that you need to send a signal.....so they vote for the AfD Party.
All this hostility by CDU members, SPD folks, the Green Party, and journalists.....over the AfD? All you have to do is find the party guilty of the problems, and fire several members of their group, with them taking public shame (like the Japanese often do). But since no one wants that.....well, the AfD is the next best thing.
Here's the sad thing....I don't think the AfD Party has yet to peak out....which means there's still some hostile feeling brewing in the public.
8. Finally....a great deal of public negative sentiment goes back to the Koln New Year's Eve business of 2015. The city police leadership didn't want to admit the police reports turned in (1,000-plus for the evening), the involvement of so many North African young men, etc. Journalists from public TV (ARD and ZDF) didn't want to tell the story....up until the moment that the public said 'we lost respect for your brand of journalism'.
That next sixty days changed the whole prospective of accepting migrants and suggested that public safety was no longer a guaranteed thing.
The removal of the police chief? That was about as far as anyone was willing to go. The mayor and state premier all stayed around. Everyone just hoped that the public would forget the evening.
In some ways, I think that both Merkel and the coalition (the CDU and SPD) need to go away, and some massive political change needs to occur (avoiding the AfD dilemma). But with the national election in 2021, and political 'slant' as it is presently, it just leaves you shaking your head. There is no exit path....it's just more winding roads, and public discontent.
Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Update on the Halle Shooter
For the past week, nothing much has been said by the German authorities. Then last night, three bits of information have arrived by the public news media.
First, the prosecutor over this case now suggests that a mental eval is necessary. Reason? There is some belief that he's not in full control of his mental decisions and that using the normal legal system won't work.
Adding months onto the process? I would suggest a minimum of four additional months, and the likelihood that some blame will be shifted around to video-gaming addiction.
Second, there's various pieces of his weapons that were manufactured by 3D production, within his residence. One gets the impression that the cops were a bit surprised at the level of assembly and this might trigger some legislative effort to prevent 3D printers being sold to the general public.
Third, there's that .10-percent Bit-coin donated to the shooter from some unknown character. Cops have yet to trace that back to anyone. It would appear that this helped to pay for the 3D printer in some way.
So you add this up and it just doesn't appear to be a major legal case occurring before mid-summer of 2020 for this shooter. If the guy is declared a mental nut-case? Well....the judge would sign the papers and simply put the guy away into a facility, for the remainder of his life. But this would open up a huge discussion over gamers and if the addiction requires new laws.
First, the prosecutor over this case now suggests that a mental eval is necessary. Reason? There is some belief that he's not in full control of his mental decisions and that using the normal legal system won't work.
Adding months onto the process? I would suggest a minimum of four additional months, and the likelihood that some blame will be shifted around to video-gaming addiction.
Second, there's various pieces of his weapons that were manufactured by 3D production, within his residence. One gets the impression that the cops were a bit surprised at the level of assembly and this might trigger some legislative effort to prevent 3D printers being sold to the general public.
Third, there's that .10-percent Bit-coin donated to the shooter from some unknown character. Cops have yet to trace that back to anyone. It would appear that this helped to pay for the 3D printer in some way.
So you add this up and it just doesn't appear to be a major legal case occurring before mid-summer of 2020 for this shooter. If the guy is declared a mental nut-case? Well....the judge would sign the papers and simply put the guy away into a facility, for the remainder of his life. But this would open up a huge discussion over gamers and if the addiction requires new laws.
Audi in the News
If you follow business news in Germany, there's a pretty big item there today with downsizing of production with Audi (the car maker).
They admit that sales for 2019, lagged around 3.6-percent less than 2018.
So the talk today via N-TV's business items.....both the Neckarsulm and Ingostadt plants for Audi....will curtail the night shift.
Lesser cars produced, and capacity will shrink. Short-term? Well....it appears that it's geared toward a long-term situation (aiming for 15 billion Euro to be saved within the next three to four years).
Another sign of the recession? Yes, but in this case....they aren't talking about a one-year impact feeling....but an even longer plan in the works.
They admit that sales for 2019, lagged around 3.6-percent less than 2018.
So the talk today via N-TV's business items.....both the Neckarsulm and Ingostadt plants for Audi....will curtail the night shift.
Lesser cars produced, and capacity will shrink. Short-term? Well....it appears that it's geared toward a long-term situation (aiming for 15 billion Euro to be saved within the next three to four years).
Another sign of the recession? Yes, but in this case....they aren't talking about a one-year impact feeling....but an even longer plan in the works.
No Farmer, No Food, No Future
It's a slogan sign I noticed today from the farmer strike on Germany, that had thousands of farm tractors stalling traffic in dozens of cities.
They want less regulation....less government bureaucracy....less guidelines handed down by the environmental crowd.
The affect? If you watch the video clips, they stalled a lot of urbanized traffic, and triggered at least an hour or two of traffic delays.
The Green Party slant on this? They offer the opinion that this is all triggered by decades-long lack of governmental policy. Yes, you can laugh about this 'control' feature that the Greens suggest, but it's their view on the whole thing.
I would offer the opinion that over the past five years....the threats have come almost every other month with a new hyped-up stage of control....either by the EU or the German government itself. Some of these have involved the public safety of the food supply....some involved safety of the water supply.....some have been over ethical treatment of farm animals. But all of this has led to problems with the models of business that farmers have relied upon for the past two or three decades.
There is no great understanding by the political figures in Germany at this point over agriculture or the economic hardships that farmers face on a yearly basis. Toss in the drought of 2018 and 2019, the pressures of marketing their products and getting premium prices, and the changing spectrum of grocery shopping....all of these lead to a shaky future.
I expect the strikes and protests to continue.
They want less regulation....less government bureaucracy....less guidelines handed down by the environmental crowd.
The affect? If you watch the video clips, they stalled a lot of urbanized traffic, and triggered at least an hour or two of traffic delays.
The Green Party slant on this? They offer the opinion that this is all triggered by decades-long lack of governmental policy. Yes, you can laugh about this 'control' feature that the Greens suggest, but it's their view on the whole thing.
I would offer the opinion that over the past five years....the threats have come almost every other month with a new hyped-up stage of control....either by the EU or the German government itself. Some of these have involved the public safety of the food supply....some involved safety of the water supply.....some have been over ethical treatment of farm animals. But all of this has led to problems with the models of business that farmers have relied upon for the past two or three decades.
There is no great understanding by the political figures in Germany at this point over agriculture or the economic hardships that farmers face on a yearly basis. Toss in the drought of 2018 and 2019, the pressures of marketing their products and getting premium prices, and the changing spectrum of grocery shopping....all of these lead to a shaky future.
I expect the strikes and protests to continue.
The German Rent Dilemma
Would you go and pay $1,250 for a studio apartment of 400 sq ft (37 sq meters)?
Go and consider your income, after German taxes and deductions....you might be lucky to have in the neighborhood of 1,500 Euro. So this home package (the studio apartment) would be in the 1,000 Euro range....giving you simply 500 Euro for food, travel, and personal lifestyle.
This is the problem in living in any major urbanized area of Germany now. Munich, Dusseldorf, Berlin, Hamburg, or Frankfurt....it's all the same.
In any pub with a 25-year old German....this topic will come up and people shake their heads because it's impossible to find an alternate scenario (unless you volunteered to live 20 kilometers outside of the urbanized zone).
The political apparatus trying to resolve this? Most believe the 'rental-brake' idea is band-aid to get by for the time being. Some believe that cities need to out and either build new apartment buildings to manage (to limit the rent) or purchase apartment buildings on the market (flipping them into city-controlled properties). Even in this scenario, you end up with city tax revenue being widely spent, and questionable long-term strategies to make this a permanent solution.
A top ten problem issue? Yes, it's not about to move out of the top ten issues.
Go and consider your income, after German taxes and deductions....you might be lucky to have in the neighborhood of 1,500 Euro. So this home package (the studio apartment) would be in the 1,000 Euro range....giving you simply 500 Euro for food, travel, and personal lifestyle.
This is the problem in living in any major urbanized area of Germany now. Munich, Dusseldorf, Berlin, Hamburg, or Frankfurt....it's all the same.
In any pub with a 25-year old German....this topic will come up and people shake their heads because it's impossible to find an alternate scenario (unless you volunteered to live 20 kilometers outside of the urbanized zone).
The political apparatus trying to resolve this? Most believe the 'rental-brake' idea is band-aid to get by for the time being. Some believe that cities need to out and either build new apartment buildings to manage (to limit the rent) or purchase apartment buildings on the market (flipping them into city-controlled properties). Even in this scenario, you end up with city tax revenue being widely spent, and questionable long-term strategies to make this a permanent solution.
A top ten problem issue? Yes, it's not about to move out of the top ten issues.
Peace Mission?
If you followed German news last night, there was a bit of a shocker when the German Defense Minister (Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, CDU) stood up and started talking over a military stabilization 'mission' in northern Syria.
Elements of the Foreign Ministry (Maas, SPD) weren't that happy over the idea, and it's hard to say if the coalition can find middle-ground over this idea.
Partners? Well....no one is saying much. I doubt if France desires this. With BREXIT underway, the Brits probably won't sign up to this idea. The Germans would need three or four countries to make this a realistic force and keep both the Kurds and Turks separated.
Politically a mess? I would suggest that the SPD Party absolutely doesn't want this idea to gain or take shape. SPD voter enthusiasm would be negative on this. Even if you came out to the German general public....I doubt if you could convince a majority of Germans to buy into this idea.
Elements of the Foreign Ministry (Maas, SPD) weren't that happy over the idea, and it's hard to say if the coalition can find middle-ground over this idea.
Partners? Well....no one is saying much. I doubt if France desires this. With BREXIT underway, the Brits probably won't sign up to this idea. The Germans would need three or four countries to make this a realistic force and keep both the Kurds and Turks separated.
Politically a mess? I would suggest that the SPD Party absolutely doesn't want this idea to gain or take shape. SPD voter enthusiasm would be negative on this. Even if you came out to the German general public....I doubt if you could convince a majority of Germans to buy into this idea.
"Land Creates Connection" Protests in Germany
Starting today in seventeen-odd cities of Germany....farmers are coming out in a protest movement called "Land Create Connection". Tractors will be on the streets, and traffic delays will be the norm of the day.
The key city mentioned? Bonn. They expect around 10,000 farm vehicles to be in that city alone.
So what's the aim? Well, there appears to be both EU and German regulation coming, which is pro-environmental in nature, but slams the common farmer in his current practices.
The key talk is that all this regulation is going to harm, or kill-off the traditional German family farm.
An active push-back against the environmental gains? Yes. I might go and suggest that this is simply the first of many farm-type protests to be seen, and affects the traffic flow into major urbanized zones.
The key city mentioned? Bonn. They expect around 10,000 farm vehicles to be in that city alone.
So what's the aim? Well, there appears to be both EU and German regulation coming, which is pro-environmental in nature, but slams the common farmer in his current practices.
The key talk is that all this regulation is going to harm, or kill-off the traditional German family farm.
An active push-back against the environmental gains? Yes. I might go and suggest that this is simply the first of many farm-type protests to be seen, and affects the traffic flow into major urbanized zones.
Electrical Story
There's a great piece over at N-TV (commercial news) today in Germany....talking about wind-energy and it's latest ills. I highly recommend reading the article.
For those who didn't know....there is a national goal of having around two-thirds of the German grid capability being renewable by the end of 2030. Currently? They sit at 44-percent. The odds of meeting the 2030 goal? Pretty much zero at this point, and it's getting worse. I wouldn't even give you a 50-percent chance by 2035 of reaching the 65-percent level.
What N-TV points out is that the building of wind-generators has slumped big-time in 2019. Between the building permits and court battles, it's getting to a point where it's impossible to find proper acreage, and get the permission of the local authorities to build.
A new German regulation came up recently over selection sites....you have to be a minimum of 1,000 meters from any residential building. If you go and view the distance, it's roughly two-thirds of a mile, which is a pretty good distance. So you'd have to look for fairly remote and rural surroundings to get permission.
Why any of this matters? Well, there's a shutdown schedule for nuke power in Germany....2022. And 16 years later, the coal plants would start their shutdown process.
In terms of a failed strategy? We aren't there yet, but with the negative numbers in 2019 for wind-generators....there's probably going to be some emergency meeting in 2022 as the lasts nuke plant shuts down, and politicians admit that they are now worried over the future.
The back-up plan? None. But I would imagine that both the French and Poles are working on building up more capability....to supply Germany plenty of electrical power, at hefty rates when the time comes. The Germans already pay the highest rates in Europe, and it's likely to escalate over the next decade.
For those who didn't know....there is a national goal of having around two-thirds of the German grid capability being renewable by the end of 2030. Currently? They sit at 44-percent. The odds of meeting the 2030 goal? Pretty much zero at this point, and it's getting worse. I wouldn't even give you a 50-percent chance by 2035 of reaching the 65-percent level.
What N-TV points out is that the building of wind-generators has slumped big-time in 2019. Between the building permits and court battles, it's getting to a point where it's impossible to find proper acreage, and get the permission of the local authorities to build.
A new German regulation came up recently over selection sites....you have to be a minimum of 1,000 meters from any residential building. If you go and view the distance, it's roughly two-thirds of a mile, which is a pretty good distance. So you'd have to look for fairly remote and rural surroundings to get permission.
Why any of this matters? Well, there's a shutdown schedule for nuke power in Germany....2022. And 16 years later, the coal plants would start their shutdown process.
In terms of a failed strategy? We aren't there yet, but with the negative numbers in 2019 for wind-generators....there's probably going to be some emergency meeting in 2022 as the lasts nuke plant shuts down, and politicians admit that they are now worried over the future.
The back-up plan? None. But I would imagine that both the French and Poles are working on building up more capability....to supply Germany plenty of electrical power, at hefty rates when the time comes. The Germans already pay the highest rates in Europe, and it's likely to escalate over the next decade.
Where There's Bear Poo.....
Some Germans were walking around the Balderschwang area of Germany (it's a remote valley between Munich and the Bodensee in the far south of Germany), and came upon some bear 'poo'. Fresh bear poo.
So the question is....do we now have a bear problem in Germany again (since 2006)?
Somewhere in the last half of the 1800s....the last bear in Germany was hunted down, shot, and that was the end of the bear population until 2006. Then entered Bruno (the friendly bear) onto the German landscape. Bruno walked around and ended up killing some sheep, getting himself onto the 'bad-bear' list, and identified to be hunted down. I could write a 500 page story over the episode, but it's safe to say around four weeks later.....a hunter found and shot down Bruno. He's stuffed and in a Bavarian museum in Munich (I've seen the display myself).
Where this new bear came from? Mostly likely the Czech or Croatian region...having crossed over the Alps.
An American, who I knew in the 2006 period, who hunted as a hobby, got into this discussion with German hunters. It's common knowledge that bears were a regular event of life in the 1600s and probably one of the reasons you didn't walk alone in the woods that much. By the 1700s....firearms were becoming part of life, and by the early 1800s....bear-hunting was taking down the population of bears in Germany.
In the summer of 2006, there were two basic events being reported on the front page of Bild (the newspaper) on a daily basis....the World Cup in Germany, and Bruno the bear activities. Yes, they'd even named the bear.
Finnish hunters were hired and brought to Bavaria (they are the few around Europe) who generally hunt bears on a regular basis. The Finns just weren't up to the task, and were 'let go' from the contract around two weeks later. In the end, it was a regional German hunter who took down Bruno.
It will be curious to see how this plays out.
So the question is....do we now have a bear problem in Germany again (since 2006)?
Somewhere in the last half of the 1800s....the last bear in Germany was hunted down, shot, and that was the end of the bear population until 2006. Then entered Bruno (the friendly bear) onto the German landscape. Bruno walked around and ended up killing some sheep, getting himself onto the 'bad-bear' list, and identified to be hunted down. I could write a 500 page story over the episode, but it's safe to say around four weeks later.....a hunter found and shot down Bruno. He's stuffed and in a Bavarian museum in Munich (I've seen the display myself).
Where this new bear came from? Mostly likely the Czech or Croatian region...having crossed over the Alps.
An American, who I knew in the 2006 period, who hunted as a hobby, got into this discussion with German hunters. It's common knowledge that bears were a regular event of life in the 1600s and probably one of the reasons you didn't walk alone in the woods that much. By the 1700s....firearms were becoming part of life, and by the early 1800s....bear-hunting was taking down the population of bears in Germany.
In the summer of 2006, there were two basic events being reported on the front page of Bild (the newspaper) on a daily basis....the World Cup in Germany, and Bruno the bear activities. Yes, they'd even named the bear.
Finnish hunters were hired and brought to Bavaria (they are the few around Europe) who generally hunt bears on a regular basis. The Finns just weren't up to the task, and were 'let go' from the contract around two weeks later. In the end, it was a regional German hunter who took down Bruno.
It will be curious to see how this plays out.
Monday, October 21, 2019
100th Knife
The Wiesbaden cops proudly announced that as of this past weekend, they'd now confiscated 100 knives in the no-knife zone (mid-section of town) since the implementation of the zone back ten months ago.
As they pound their chest on this, and hype that they've made Wiesbaden safer, there's zero indication that there are fewer knives in the city.
The curious left out of their statement? Well, the policy that got implemented....said you would have to appear in court and in front of a judge after the confiscation, and that a fine of up to 5,000 Euro was possible. But they avoided talking about the court appearances, or the fines.
The odds that the majority of the fines never went past 100 euro? I would imagine that the vast majority of the situations were in that ballpark.
The suggestion of this having an affect? There's hardly more than two weeks that pass that you have another gentleman or two in possession of a knife in the 'zone'. So the law in most respects has very limited success. If I were the cops, I'd make up a museum 'window' somewhere and mount the confiscated knives as a display.
Update: 21 Oct 2019, around 10:50 PM....cops got called into the central part of the city, within the knife-zone. An argument started up between some older guy and a younger guy....with the younger guy pulling a knife and stabbing the older guy. Serious medical attention required....he appears to survive. Cops looking for some guy but no real ID. But the guy is noted as a eastern Europe type (figure Romanian or Bulgarian). That's the continuing saga of the city.....after dark, it's just not as safe as it might have been thirty years ago.
As they pound their chest on this, and hype that they've made Wiesbaden safer, there's zero indication that there are fewer knives in the city.
The curious left out of their statement? Well, the policy that got implemented....said you would have to appear in court and in front of a judge after the confiscation, and that a fine of up to 5,000 Euro was possible. But they avoided talking about the court appearances, or the fines.
The odds that the majority of the fines never went past 100 euro? I would imagine that the vast majority of the situations were in that ballpark.
The suggestion of this having an affect? There's hardly more than two weeks that pass that you have another gentleman or two in possession of a knife in the 'zone'. So the law in most respects has very limited success. If I were the cops, I'd make up a museum 'window' somewhere and mount the confiscated knives as a display.
Update: 21 Oct 2019, around 10:50 PM....cops got called into the central part of the city, within the knife-zone. An argument started up between some older guy and a younger guy....with the younger guy pulling a knife and stabbing the older guy. Serious medical attention required....he appears to survive. Cops looking for some guy but no real ID. But the guy is noted as a eastern Europe type (figure Romanian or Bulgarian). That's the continuing saga of the city.....after dark, it's just not as safe as it might have been thirty years ago.
Germany and Retirement Talk
This came up in German business news today....with the Bundesbank talking to the political parties, and suggesting that the new retirement age should be set at 69 years and 4 months (by the year 2070).
I remarked on this (leaving out the 2070 year business) and my German wife almost had a heart attack....launching into a huge tirade that this just wasn't going to be accepted.
Chief reason for the push up to this new age idea? Well, they started off talking about age expectancy and how German just live longer now. I kinda agree on longer age thing, but if you physically tested or emotionally tested Germans....living longer doesn't really mean they are still capable of the work they've been doing for 45 years.
Then they got into the pension talk, and they just kinda nicely hint....either you have to raise contributions, or raise the age business. The pension business simply isn't going to work with people reaching the new higher age situation.
Right now, the age is set at 65, with a gradual up-swing going on, and 67 will be the new norm by 2031.
Agreeable with folks? I doubt it. You have to remember that IRA or 401k type situations that operate in the US.....aren't being used in Germany. The bulk of retirees have their normal regular social security pension, with the higher wage-earners having an insurance-type account (similar in nature to an IRA). Most middle class people are simply counting on their regular pension plan to 'work' in the end.
If you threw this into a discussion....most Germans would prefer to go and retire by age 62, taking a lesser amount, and moving off to the Philippines, Thailand, or Greece....thus living a lesser lifestyle....enjoying their lives in early retirement. The government may figure out some way to just offer those people a lesser amount and keep the rest on the road to age 68.
I remarked on this (leaving out the 2070 year business) and my German wife almost had a heart attack....launching into a huge tirade that this just wasn't going to be accepted.
Chief reason for the push up to this new age idea? Well, they started off talking about age expectancy and how German just live longer now. I kinda agree on longer age thing, but if you physically tested or emotionally tested Germans....living longer doesn't really mean they are still capable of the work they've been doing for 45 years.
Then they got into the pension talk, and they just kinda nicely hint....either you have to raise contributions, or raise the age business. The pension business simply isn't going to work with people reaching the new higher age situation.
Right now, the age is set at 65, with a gradual up-swing going on, and 67 will be the new norm by 2031.
Agreeable with folks? I doubt it. You have to remember that IRA or 401k type situations that operate in the US.....aren't being used in Germany. The bulk of retirees have their normal regular social security pension, with the higher wage-earners having an insurance-type account (similar in nature to an IRA). Most middle class people are simply counting on their regular pension plan to 'work' in the end.
If you threw this into a discussion....most Germans would prefer to go and retire by age 62, taking a lesser amount, and moving off to the Philippines, Thailand, or Greece....thus living a lesser lifestyle....enjoying their lives in early retirement. The government may figure out some way to just offer those people a lesser amount and keep the rest on the road to age 68.
Sunday, October 20, 2019
Turkey and Vacation Ads
For about six weeks now.....if you view German commercial TV, you'd kinda notice a tourist-type ad that comes on in the evening hours to entice you to use Air Turkey and vacation in Turkey. Several million Euro must have been put into the ad campaign and buying time on German TV.
The problem here....with the invasion of Syria rhetoric and attacks on the Kurds....the money is being completely wasted.
I simply shake my head. This was probably planned out back in mid-summer, with a lot of effort to make it very inviting. But Germans are following the news business, and I doubt if anyone other than Turk-Germans and cheap Germans looking for package tours will sign up to go into Turkey for 2020.
The problem here....with the invasion of Syria rhetoric and attacks on the Kurds....the money is being completely wasted.
I simply shake my head. This was probably planned out back in mid-summer, with a lot of effort to make it very inviting. But Germans are following the news business, and I doubt if anyone other than Turk-Germans and cheap Germans looking for package tours will sign up to go into Turkey for 2020.
Mail Chatter
There is a political discussion underway by the FDP Party over the German postal system, and in a effort to save money....they are proposing the idea of mail delivery being terminated for Mondays. You'd have mail delivered Tuesday through Saturday.
Odds of this moving forward? Zero. The SPD Party has said 'NO' on the idea and they believe the public wants six-day delivery.
The curious thing, if you measured against the 1990s....I would suggest that almost two-thirds of all package delivery is now done by non-postal delivery. In an average month, I'll have Amazon or commercial delivery on three occasions to our German household. Mail itself? Almost half of all the stuff that comes in via the postal folks....are catalogs or junk-mail status.
I suspect if you went and asked most German people in a direct fashion....more than half would agree that either Saturday or Monday delivery could be terminated without any heartburn.
Odds of this moving forward? Zero. The SPD Party has said 'NO' on the idea and they believe the public wants six-day delivery.
The curious thing, if you measured against the 1990s....I would suggest that almost two-thirds of all package delivery is now done by non-postal delivery. In an average month, I'll have Amazon or commercial delivery on three occasions to our German household. Mail itself? Almost half of all the stuff that comes in via the postal folks....are catalogs or junk-mail status.
I suspect if you went and asked most German people in a direct fashion....more than half would agree that either Saturday or Monday delivery could be terminated without any heartburn.
Why Alternate News Media and Public Talk Forums Now Exist
It's a topic that pops up in my mind about once or twice a month. I've come to subscribe to around two dozen YouTube 'channels' which feature British, Swedish, German, Austrian, Danish and Taiwanese 'alternate' views. Since I'm retired, I have the time to go and spend several hours each week....listening to alternate viewpoints.
Around a decade ago, I started to view certain publications, and certain news 'devices' as being limited in terms of scope and understanding. I started to out a red-pen and mark an article which had questionable facts. When you had three red markings, in my humble opinion....it was no longer a unbiased article, and represented just a slanted story.
In some ways, there was one single viewpoint being given, and all information equaled the support of that viewpoint. In simple terms, it was creating a propaganda-like tool....whether the news journalists believed that or not.
Others also found this troubling, and some started to create a chat forum or 'network' on YouTube to open up a dialog. Some have had trouble with social media accepting this, and some are finding police at their door to suggest authorities wanting them to stop or downsize their message.
So alternate media draws attention. It's not that they are legit journalists or really doing that great of a job. Some are just people off the street who just started asking stupid questions, and were willing to do it in front of a camera.
Some actually can take eight minutes to talk about one single issue and really sum up the problems in five or six 'bullets', which makes you wonder about legit news media, and why they can't drag themselves to just give you unbiased prospectives.
The thing I wonder about....the longer this goes on....the more popular these 'networks' will become, and the less trusting in national news agencies. You can see that already with the BBC, Germany's ARD, and with the public news sector in Sweden.
So I come to the obvious 700-pound guerrilla in the room....the internet. None of this would have occurred without the internet. Politicians now realize the guerrilla in the room, and the threat to their authority. Social media (Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook) is now a threat. If you can't cage up this guerrilla....what happens in the next decade?
The label of social media being controlled by the Russians? It's an interesting label. But in 2011 and 2012.....the Russians themselves were threatened by the social media device in their national election. So the idea that this is a one-way device? That's long-gone now.
In terms of the Pandoras Box open now? No doubt this is true, but what exactly do you want to do in resolving this? And would this resolution create a bigger and more intense problem in the long-run?
Around a decade ago, I started to view certain publications, and certain news 'devices' as being limited in terms of scope and understanding. I started to out a red-pen and mark an article which had questionable facts. When you had three red markings, in my humble opinion....it was no longer a unbiased article, and represented just a slanted story.
In some ways, there was one single viewpoint being given, and all information equaled the support of that viewpoint. In simple terms, it was creating a propaganda-like tool....whether the news journalists believed that or not.
Others also found this troubling, and some started to create a chat forum or 'network' on YouTube to open up a dialog. Some have had trouble with social media accepting this, and some are finding police at their door to suggest authorities wanting them to stop or downsize their message.
So alternate media draws attention. It's not that they are legit journalists or really doing that great of a job. Some are just people off the street who just started asking stupid questions, and were willing to do it in front of a camera.
Some actually can take eight minutes to talk about one single issue and really sum up the problems in five or six 'bullets', which makes you wonder about legit news media, and why they can't drag themselves to just give you unbiased prospectives.
The thing I wonder about....the longer this goes on....the more popular these 'networks' will become, and the less trusting in national news agencies. You can see that already with the BBC, Germany's ARD, and with the public news sector in Sweden.
So I come to the obvious 700-pound guerrilla in the room....the internet. None of this would have occurred without the internet. Politicians now realize the guerrilla in the room, and the threat to their authority. Social media (Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook) is now a threat. If you can't cage up this guerrilla....what happens in the next decade?
The label of social media being controlled by the Russians? It's an interesting label. But in 2011 and 2012.....the Russians themselves were threatened by the social media device in their national election. So the idea that this is a one-way device? That's long-gone now.
In terms of the Pandoras Box open now? No doubt this is true, but what exactly do you want to do in resolving this? And would this resolution create a bigger and more intense problem in the long-run?
Saturday, October 19, 2019
The Next Thing to Worry About
Around 3 AM on Friday morning....the city cops of Wiesbaden got this call. They are prepared for about 99-percent of the calls that come in.
This one? Someone was reporting 20 wild boar in the middle of town.
This was down near Wilhelmstrasse (the main avenue of the city) near the Casino and high-end hotels.
The wild boar were making a run through the city park, the theater building grounds, and the Casino park.
Within an hour, the boar were gone. No shots fired....they just wandered away into the wooded region on the north end of the city.
Around eight years ago, boar were noted in the city as well.
Hunters to be brought in? I doubt it. No one is going to sign off on hunters (professional or otherwise) to be brought into the city.
It just adds onto the hundred-odd things that people worry about within the city.
This one? Someone was reporting 20 wild boar in the middle of town.
This was down near Wilhelmstrasse (the main avenue of the city) near the Casino and high-end hotels.
The wild boar were making a run through the city park, the theater building grounds, and the Casino park.
Within an hour, the boar were gone. No shots fired....they just wandered away into the wooded region on the north end of the city.
Around eight years ago, boar were noted in the city as well.
Hunters to be brought in? I doubt it. No one is going to sign off on hunters (professional or otherwise) to be brought into the city.
It just adds onto the hundred-odd things that people worry about within the city.
365 Euro Ticket Chatter
There is a discussion underway here in the Frankfurt-Wiesbaden area over starting a 365 Euro-365 Day transport ticket.
A couple of areas around Germany have opened up to the experimental program, which requires some funding by the federal government, in order to work.
The basic deal? You would go in and start a card-ticket. You could travel within that 'zone' all year, free of extra cost, on any bus, tram, or train, for the 365 Euro involved.
How much money would the region 'lose' going this way and not charging the normal ticket price? They figure around 190-million Euro. So that's the amount that the federal government would have to cover.
A permanent thing? No one is really saying that. They are simply hoping to convince more people to leave their car home, and use the transport system.
If the federal government doesn't cough up the money? Well, it's hard to see how this would work.
Personally, I think they could make it a 730 Euro-365 Day transport ticket (double the price) and you'd get the same number of people.
The one odd question may later center on how big this 'zone' will be. They may decide that you are limited to just 10 km. So the idea of taking a bus from village, onto a station in Wiesbaden, and then to Frankfurt....probably won't work with this ticket.
A couple of areas around Germany have opened up to the experimental program, which requires some funding by the federal government, in order to work.
The basic deal? You would go in and start a card-ticket. You could travel within that 'zone' all year, free of extra cost, on any bus, tram, or train, for the 365 Euro involved.
How much money would the region 'lose' going this way and not charging the normal ticket price? They figure around 190-million Euro. So that's the amount that the federal government would have to cover.
A permanent thing? No one is really saying that. They are simply hoping to convince more people to leave their car home, and use the transport system.
If the federal government doesn't cough up the money? Well, it's hard to see how this would work.
Personally, I think they could make it a 730 Euro-365 Day transport ticket (double the price) and you'd get the same number of people.
The one odd question may later center on how big this 'zone' will be. They may decide that you are limited to just 10 km. So the idea of taking a bus from village, onto a station in Wiesbaden, and then to Frankfurt....probably won't work with this ticket.
Friday, October 18, 2019
Diplomatic Status
Around six weeks ago, at a RAF base in central England (near Northamptonshire)....an American dependent wife exited the based and got on the main road....unfortunately, on the right-hand side (remember, they drive on the left there).
Within like a minute, she hits some 18-year old British kid on a motorcycle....killing him. Brit cops come....do a examination of the scene, and write up a report.
The gal has American authorities from the base come over, and because her husband has diplomatic status...there's this brief talk. No one knows what was said or how it was conveyed. But they pull the papers out, and she gets on a plane rather quickly....departing the UK under diplomatic status.
The parents of the kid? Furious. Politically, it's being hyped up on a daily basis. They want the lady to return and face justice.
So you stand back and look over this landscape.
Even if she returns, the case would revolve around involuntary manslaughter. If you can't establish drugs or alcohol in the matter (no one has suggested either in this case), then the case starts to lessen. If they could establish that she was under care by a doctor and having had some prescription drugs....then the case might gather steam.
For sentencing, if guilty, in the UK? Typically, it's a range of two to ten years. A lot depends on the incident, severity, and court appreciation of your explanation.
The fact that a video is around and show her on the wrong side of the road when exiting the base? That hinders her position, especially if she traveled more than 300 feet while on the wrong side.
Having been to the UK, Australia and New Zealand....I can vouch that it takes a lot of effort to force yourself to drive on the left side of the road.
So where this goes now? I think Boris Johnson, upon early November and having BREXIT lessen as a problem, will come back to this episode, and ask for her to return to the UK.
The family wants justice but I just don't see her getting more than one to two years max. That's probably not the justice they want.
Within like a minute, she hits some 18-year old British kid on a motorcycle....killing him. Brit cops come....do a examination of the scene, and write up a report.
The gal has American authorities from the base come over, and because her husband has diplomatic status...there's this brief talk. No one knows what was said or how it was conveyed. But they pull the papers out, and she gets on a plane rather quickly....departing the UK under diplomatic status.
The parents of the kid? Furious. Politically, it's being hyped up on a daily basis. They want the lady to return and face justice.
So you stand back and look over this landscape.
Even if she returns, the case would revolve around involuntary manslaughter. If you can't establish drugs or alcohol in the matter (no one has suggested either in this case), then the case starts to lessen. If they could establish that she was under care by a doctor and having had some prescription drugs....then the case might gather steam.
For sentencing, if guilty, in the UK? Typically, it's a range of two to ten years. A lot depends on the incident, severity, and court appreciation of your explanation.
The fact that a video is around and show her on the wrong side of the road when exiting the base? That hinders her position, especially if she traveled more than 300 feet while on the wrong side.
Having been to the UK, Australia and New Zealand....I can vouch that it takes a lot of effort to force yourself to drive on the left side of the road.
So where this goes now? I think Boris Johnson, upon early November and having BREXIT lessen as a problem, will come back to this episode, and ask for her to return to the UK.
The family wants justice but I just don't see her getting more than one to two years max. That's probably not the justice they want.
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