The Pandora's Box

It's a six-line story at best, but it might make think a good bit over the draft idea.

The German Professional Association of Pediatricians (BVKJ) made a public statement today....calling for a national tax...referred to as the 'sugar-tax', which would led to stopping overweight and obesity among German kids.

Likely to be picked up by the German Green Party?  I'd virtually guarantee that both the Greens and Linke Party will quickly fall into line, and this might be eventually (maybe by the 2021 election time) be something that the SPD Party would agree to.

But then the real question is.....what would this tax amount to?  The BVKJ avoid that topic.

If you venture into a restaurant and buy a .5-liter glass of Coke or Pepsi....the price will be around 2.20 to 2.50 (with only the current VAT tax and cost involved).  So how much would it take for you to by-pass the glass of Coke?  Three Euro?  Five Euro?  Seven Euro?

I sat and pondered over this.  Over an entire year now....if you exclude flight activity, I probably consume less than ten sugar-type sodas a year now.  In a pub, I'm likely today to ask for a apple wine (a Hessen feature), a beer, or some glacier water from France.  Back in the 1990s, I would have had two six-packs of Coke or Pepsi per week. 

Would a tax of 1.50 Euro on top of the can or glass be enough to persuade me to skip the drink?  Probably not.  But for kids.....if you said a can of Coke is four Euro (for the drink and the sugar-tax)....I suspect most would skip it or at least lessen their consumption of 50-percent. 

Drastic downward trend for Pepsi and Coke?  Maybe.  But they'd wiggle around enough to get the tax only affecting sugar-drinks.....not the diet drinks they sell.

But this would be strictly a German thing?  Probably.  So you could cross the border into Poland or Czech, and buy 20 cases of your Pepsi.....on sale without the stupid tax?  Yes.  I would suggest that a quarter of German society would continue on.....buying most of their sodas while visiting Luxembourg or France, or Austria.

Something to worry about?  It'll eventually find enough political support to probably be a start-up tax of 50-Euro cents, and rise to 1.50 Euro in three years. 

But here's the lingering thought that ought to rest on your mind.  If this makes perfect sense....why not tax-up Snickers, chips, beef, and just plain regular German alcohol chocolates?  Could this end up being a Pandora's Box?