Right now, the next national election in Germany is for the fall of 2025....unless 'something' happens.
ARD (public TV) went and did a poll.....finding that 41-percent of German society want an election before the fall of 2025. Only 32-percent want the current coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP to continue on.
Another odd feature of this poll....they asked about the actions of the government over the past month for anti-Semitism, and 56-percent want MORE action done by the coalition.
How political ranking looks with this poll? The CDU-CSU lead with 30-percent of the public.....AfD follows with 21-percent. The Greens and SPD are in 3rd place with 15-percent each. FDP marginally stays 'active' with 5-percent. The Linke Party would crap-out with 3-percent (meaning no seats in the next Bundestag).
How 2024 looks presently? You have the EU election in the spring, and three eastern state elections in the fall of 2024....likely showing hefty numbers for the AfD Party, and putting a harsh situation for the 2025 situation.
Could they do an early election? Yes, with the FDP saying enough, and quitting this situation....that would potentially create a way to call for the early election. That would also halt the positive numbers for the AfD in the fall of 2024 state elections.
Odds of this? Presently, I'd give it less than a 30-percent chance of occurring.
In this scenario, if you were to ask....the CDU-CSU folks would likely partner with the SPD, with Scholz quietly exiting the situation.
Curing all ills? Well.....no, you still have a problem with migrants and the asylum policy, and the effects of AfD wins in the state elections of the fall of 2024 still remain.
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