I often comment on the population problem of Germany....that the birth-rate is a huge problem going forward (has been this way since the 1960s).
I noted in SWR news today that a research institute has done a big study over the birth-rate, and looked at the topic of craftsmen in Germany. The Basel-located group....Prognos....did the project.
So what Prognos said in the end.....roughly 23 years from now (2040)....there will be three million German skilled workers missing.
Always in the past when folks talked about the birth-rate problem....they talked general population numbers...NEVER skilled craftsmen.
A while back....the Work Minister for the German government (Nahles) spoke up about the issue and the ministry had some numbers that related the problem by 2030 at 700,000 missing.
How big a deal is the three million missing craftsmen? There are various ways that you could look upon the problem.
First, automation is coming and already a big part of German industry. It's possible that half of these missing craftsmen won't really be missed that much.
Second, German companies have a lot of incentives to offer, and it's possible that you might see various immigrants (maybe even South Koreans or Japanese) arrive and start to fill some of these craftsmen fields.
Third, the German system does have a fairly capable education system in the background....so training people to reach this craftsman plateau is not the big issue....simply finding capable people to come in and fill the training slots is likely the more pressing issue.
The difference between the gov't study and the foundation study? It's a ten-year difference on the end-result. Maybe with the Nahles government study....if they went to 2040....they'd be near the 2-million point. Some discussions today center around people wanting early retirement (age 55) and maybe the private foundation thinks a lot of people will go this way between 2020 and 2040.
The curious thing out of this that I see....is that you might wake up to realize this unique heating system you bought for your house is broke, and by this point of 2040....there are only 200-trained technicians over all of Germany who can repair or dig into such a system, and then you find out that the nearest guy to you has a pretty full schedule for three weeks before he can come and repair your system.
Thursday, August 31, 2017
Integration and Schools
One of the sixteen German states with the highest concentration of immigration members....is North Rhine Westphalia (NRW).
In a Focus article, they chatted on a issue which got some local attention.
As German schools started up the last month....it's become apparent that the state (NRW) has arranged for a couple of 'refugee schools' to come and exist....not just a class by itself....but an entire school here and there.
This has turned up as a political topic by some of the teachers. They suggest that this is going to create some ghetto-like school (with just migrants), and it doesn't allow for integration.
Into last year, it was done as a transitional program....but it's going to repeat, and that gives it more of a permanent nature.
The necessity here? It's been discussed on various occasions that you have a fair sum of kids who show up from school systems in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria....some rural....some urbanized. Some of the kids have been out of school for over a year. Some need major tutor help....not just with German language but other school topics. By kind of moving them into this centralized school....you could have tutors ready to sit down with certain kids who need extra help. In a regular school.....you won't find the tutors sitting there and ready to help you.
Preventing integration? You are in a balancing act.....trying to get a kid into a new school system that is fairly demanding....with a limit of resources to ensure the success of the kid.
I suspect you can go back to the 1980s and 1990s...finding various Turkish kids who were uprooted out of Turkey and brought into Germany....then given a brief orientation and expected to achieve success in the German school system. It was hit-and-miss.
On the list of 1,000 lessons learned? Yes, this is probably another of the problems that nationally...the government really didn't know what they were signing up to.
In a Focus article, they chatted on a issue which got some local attention.
As German schools started up the last month....it's become apparent that the state (NRW) has arranged for a couple of 'refugee schools' to come and exist....not just a class by itself....but an entire school here and there.
This has turned up as a political topic by some of the teachers. They suggest that this is going to create some ghetto-like school (with just migrants), and it doesn't allow for integration.
Into last year, it was done as a transitional program....but it's going to repeat, and that gives it more of a permanent nature.
The necessity here? It's been discussed on various occasions that you have a fair sum of kids who show up from school systems in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria....some rural....some urbanized. Some of the kids have been out of school for over a year. Some need major tutor help....not just with German language but other school topics. By kind of moving them into this centralized school....you could have tutors ready to sit down with certain kids who need extra help. In a regular school.....you won't find the tutors sitting there and ready to help you.
Preventing integration? You are in a balancing act.....trying to get a kid into a new school system that is fairly demanding....with a limit of resources to ensure the success of the kid.
I suspect you can go back to the 1980s and 1990s...finding various Turkish kids who were uprooted out of Turkey and brought into Germany....then given a brief orientation and expected to achieve success in the German school system. It was hit-and-miss.
On the list of 1,000 lessons learned? Yes, this is probably another of the problems that nationally...the government really didn't know what they were signing up to.
Ordentlich Story
I sat the other night and was watching a news documentary piece on German TV, which took on three African immigrants (all had at least ten years in Germany). It was a positive spin-piece....I agree. But on the face of it.....all three had successfully integrated and were productive members of German society (no doubt).
So they came to the one guy (medical background), who had crossed the line on integration and now was going to rent a garden-hut property.
In urbanized areas (he lived in Dresden)....it's common for some city-dwellers to have this half-acre of garden property, with a hut, and a summer garden. It's a place where you can leave the apartment at noon....bring along some beer and brats....do a bit of garden work to chill out.....grill up the brats, and relax.
So the African guy had arrived at the property. He notes that it needs some work, as he took it over. And then the management crew arrived to brief him on the 'rules'.
Just reading some listing is typically not enough for most German bureaucratic folks.....they want to brief you in person.
It was a fair sum of rules.
As they depart....the camera guy flips to the African guy and there is some trigger question. The term 'ordentlich' comes up in conversation.
The African guy tries hard to convey ordentlich in some decent light but obviously, this is one of the little things about German culture that makes life difficult and he has some disdain over.
Ordentlich typically means a tidy or neat life. In other words.....you have a highly regulated lifestyle, with a listing of ten-thousand-odd rules to ensure things run right.
He certainly didn't want to say this was bad or stupid....just that it was something you had to accept....to be part of German society. Then he gave a slight frown....as though admitting this was an error but it was reality.
Generally, I will admit that Germany survives today....in the fantastic shape that it's in...ONLY because of this dedication to ordentlich regulations. Streets get swept....cars are washed.....kids do homework on schedule....etc. Without ordentlich.....it wouldn't work.
I admired the story told on all three Africans. They took the opportunity....grabbed onto educational chances....accepted advice by Germans....and built some new life. The ordentlich factor? Well....yeah, that was part of the deal as well.
So they came to the one guy (medical background), who had crossed the line on integration and now was going to rent a garden-hut property.
In urbanized areas (he lived in Dresden)....it's common for some city-dwellers to have this half-acre of garden property, with a hut, and a summer garden. It's a place where you can leave the apartment at noon....bring along some beer and brats....do a bit of garden work to chill out.....grill up the brats, and relax.
So the African guy had arrived at the property. He notes that it needs some work, as he took it over. And then the management crew arrived to brief him on the 'rules'.
Just reading some listing is typically not enough for most German bureaucratic folks.....they want to brief you in person.
It was a fair sum of rules.
As they depart....the camera guy flips to the African guy and there is some trigger question. The term 'ordentlich' comes up in conversation.
The African guy tries hard to convey ordentlich in some decent light but obviously, this is one of the little things about German culture that makes life difficult and he has some disdain over.
Ordentlich typically means a tidy or neat life. In other words.....you have a highly regulated lifestyle, with a listing of ten-thousand-odd rules to ensure things run right.
He certainly didn't want to say this was bad or stupid....just that it was something you had to accept....to be part of German society. Then he gave a slight frown....as though admitting this was an error but it was reality.
Generally, I will admit that Germany survives today....in the fantastic shape that it's in...ONLY because of this dedication to ordentlich regulations. Streets get swept....cars are washed.....kids do homework on schedule....etc. Without ordentlich.....it wouldn't work.
I admired the story told on all three Africans. They took the opportunity....grabbed onto educational chances....accepted advice by Germans....and built some new life. The ordentlich factor? Well....yeah, that was part of the deal as well.
The Employee-Owned Story
For a long while in the US....there have been Antifa-student-activists who've commented about the great socialism factor in Europe....particularly in Germany. What's hyped up is that German companies are mostly employee-operated...no CEO or management folks ordering the workers around.
So, I pulled out the DAX listing....the top thirty companies listed in Germany. How many are employee-operated/owned? None.
So, I pulled out the MDAX listing....the next fifty German companies listed after the DAX listing. How many are employee-operated/owned? None.
So pulled out the SDAX listing....the third tier of German companies (fifty total). How many are employee-operated/owned? None.
I do agree....you can find a number of small operations...mostly family-run or very small commercial operations....that could be considered employee-operated/owned. Wineries, cafes, and pubs probably make up the bulk of these.
But if you went looking for any success story that would make the US Antifa-socialist student happy....well, there just isn't a creature of that type existing.
So, I pulled out the DAX listing....the top thirty companies listed in Germany. How many are employee-operated/owned? None.
So, I pulled out the MDAX listing....the next fifty German companies listed after the DAX listing. How many are employee-operated/owned? None.
So pulled out the SDAX listing....the third tier of German companies (fifty total). How many are employee-operated/owned? None.
I do agree....you can find a number of small operations...mostly family-run or very small commercial operations....that could be considered employee-operated/owned. Wineries, cafes, and pubs probably make up the bulk of these.
But if you went looking for any success story that would make the US Antifa-socialist student happy....well, there just isn't a creature of that type existing.
Wednesday, August 30, 2017
The Russian Mafia Story
Last night, I sat and watched the German news unfold with a rather new story.
What the cops say, with the prosecutor running this into the Dusseldorf regional court....is that the Russian mafia somehow got into the nursing care business.
It started off with fraud...of sorts.
Roughly ten folks are part of the insider crew to a nursing operations that ran for three years (until 2016). They provided billing for non-care services. Maybe up to the two million Euro level.
The charges also include money-laundering. These guys were raking in various forms of cash....cleaning it for different gangs, and actually acting like a legit nurse operation.
Also in the mix....at least four doctors, who were writing the 'scripts' to allow the services to be legit.
The court episode? No one expects it to wrap up in 2017....it'll go till at least January of 2018.
But I would imagine that the cops are reviewing other operations around Germany now, and you might see five or six operations discovered like this....Russian mafia into German nursing operations.
What the cops say, with the prosecutor running this into the Dusseldorf regional court....is that the Russian mafia somehow got into the nursing care business.
It started off with fraud...of sorts.
Roughly ten folks are part of the insider crew to a nursing operations that ran for three years (until 2016). They provided billing for non-care services. Maybe up to the two million Euro level.
The charges also include money-laundering. These guys were raking in various forms of cash....cleaning it for different gangs, and actually acting like a legit nurse operation.
Also in the mix....at least four doctors, who were writing the 'scripts' to allow the services to be legit.
The court episode? No one expects it to wrap up in 2017....it'll go till at least January of 2018.
But I would imagine that the cops are reviewing other operations around Germany now, and you might see five or six operations discovered like this....Russian mafia into German nursing operations.
The Bad Data Story
It's a bit humorous....although some Germans aren't laughing.
So, as the G-20 Summit unfolded in Hamburg in early July.....there's a updated access listing handed out to the security folks to allow reporters in, and forbid certain reporters. Roughly 30 reporters which had access before...are denied.
Thus begins this big long investigation because the thirty-odd reporters went ballistic, and wanted the reason for the denial of entry.
The Ministry of Justice now says....there are screwed-up records at the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA). Then they hint....oh yeah....there might be millions of illegal records kept by the BKA. Yep, kind of a shocker.
'Data abuse' has been uttered a lot over the past twenty-four hours.
Some of the data entries are just plain wrong....some are trivial-like items which kept being added year after year.
Fixing this? Everyone is hyped up and says in some public statement that this will have be fully reviewed and solved. Time-line? No one says much of anything. We aren't talking about days or weeks here....this is probably a full-time job for twenty people for at least two years.
The odd thing is that it could cut across just about every single citizen in the country. You could be asking for your data record and find that three entries exist....noting you attended some radical political party function at such-and-such bar. But the truth is that you actually worked for the bar on rare occasions and your car was parked in the parking-lot....which some idiot cop simply ran around copying plate numbers. That's how silly this whole data-base might be.
If you remember all the hype about Facebook, social media, and Google....that they might collect info on you....well....this is the same thing except it's the German federal government collecting, and yes, they did all the bad stuff like they suggest on Google.
So, as the G-20 Summit unfolded in Hamburg in early July.....there's a updated access listing handed out to the security folks to allow reporters in, and forbid certain reporters. Roughly 30 reporters which had access before...are denied.
Thus begins this big long investigation because the thirty-odd reporters went ballistic, and wanted the reason for the denial of entry.
The Ministry of Justice now says....there are screwed-up records at the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA). Then they hint....oh yeah....there might be millions of illegal records kept by the BKA. Yep, kind of a shocker.
'Data abuse' has been uttered a lot over the past twenty-four hours.
Some of the data entries are just plain wrong....some are trivial-like items which kept being added year after year.
Fixing this? Everyone is hyped up and says in some public statement that this will have be fully reviewed and solved. Time-line? No one says much of anything. We aren't talking about days or weeks here....this is probably a full-time job for twenty people for at least two years.
The odd thing is that it could cut across just about every single citizen in the country. You could be asking for your data record and find that three entries exist....noting you attended some radical political party function at such-and-such bar. But the truth is that you actually worked for the bar on rare occasions and your car was parked in the parking-lot....which some idiot cop simply ran around copying plate numbers. That's how silly this whole data-base might be.
If you remember all the hype about Facebook, social media, and Google....that they might collect info on you....well....this is the same thing except it's the German federal government collecting, and yes, they did all the bad stuff like they suggest on Google.
Explaining the Wahl-O-Mat
Back around a dozen years ago in Germany....some geeky political folks came up with a App that helps an undecided voter determine the 'best' political party in an election. The App was developed by the Federal Center for Political Education (bpb).
It's been worked up on various occasions to handle EU, Bundestag, or individual state elections.
Typically, it'll ask 38 questions....do you support this and the answer you choose is yes, no, or neutral.
For example....up in the Hamburg region....there is a question that asks if you support the deepening of the Hamburg harbor. Various parties have taken a position on the topic. Most people will say they don't care one way or another. For some voters, it's important.
I took the Wahl-O-Mat last night....eventually coming to the recommendation that I'd fit better with the Pirate Party.
My observation? For most Germans, there are two or three things in the mix which draw you historically....over and over....to the same political party. For roughly half the adult population however....you might find one single election where a dozen things have occurred over the past year or two, and you seek to 'punish' your old party, or send a signal to all parties.
The Wahl-O-Mat is hyped by the public news media, and generally encouraged among the younger generation. If you go asking Germans over forty...I'd take a guess that the vast majority (probably over 75-percent) have never used it.
It's been worked up on various occasions to handle EU, Bundestag, or individual state elections.
Typically, it'll ask 38 questions....do you support this and the answer you choose is yes, no, or neutral.
For example....up in the Hamburg region....there is a question that asks if you support the deepening of the Hamburg harbor. Various parties have taken a position on the topic. Most people will say they don't care one way or another. For some voters, it's important.
I took the Wahl-O-Mat last night....eventually coming to the recommendation that I'd fit better with the Pirate Party.
My observation? For most Germans, there are two or three things in the mix which draw you historically....over and over....to the same political party. For roughly half the adult population however....you might find one single election where a dozen things have occurred over the past year or two, and you seek to 'punish' your old party, or send a signal to all parties.
The Wahl-O-Mat is hyped by the public news media, and generally encouraged among the younger generation. If you go asking Germans over forty...I'd take a guess that the vast majority (probably over 75-percent) have never used it.
The If Scenario
I often point out consequences in history and how things could be different.
Today is the topic of the CDU Finance Minister....Wolfgang Schauble and 12 October 1990.
Up until this day, Schauble had risen up in the CDU ranks....was 48 years old....and was a personal friend of Helmet Kohl. In 1989, a reshuffle occurred with Schauble brought in to be the new Interior Minister. He was also a major part of the unification team....bring DDR into West Germany, and forming the new nation.
In this period leading up to 1994's German election....Schauble was attacked and suffered major physical damage....12 October 1990....putting him permanently into a wheel chair. Over a period of four months....he goes through a recovery, and stays around.
Some folks suggested there in the period leading up to 1994....that Kohl ought to go ahead and retire. He says no. What you can generally say is that the star for Schauble was brightest at this point.
As you pass through the next four years....Kohl's star dims.
Schauble steps in to being the party chairman in 1998. Again, you'd think that for this election period....Kohl would step down and Schauble would be the primary choice. But no....that wasn't going to happen.
Around 2000, there is a scandal which erupts around Helmet Kohl. It's over a secretive bank account with funds used by the CDU for party members....the account is outside of Germany. Schauble ends up having to resign from the party chairmanship, although he seems to have never been involved in the fund (at least people think that).
From that point on, Merkel had the lead for the CDU Party in Germany.
If Kohl had stepped down in 1990 or 1994? It's very likely Schauble would have been in position to be the next Chancellor. In the end, Kohl felt that he was not replaceable, and stayed beyond the point of any value.
Merkel rests in the Chancellor position today....mostly because of Kohl's stubbornness and ill-timing.
Today is the topic of the CDU Finance Minister....Wolfgang Schauble and 12 October 1990.
Up until this day, Schauble had risen up in the CDU ranks....was 48 years old....and was a personal friend of Helmet Kohl. In 1989, a reshuffle occurred with Schauble brought in to be the new Interior Minister. He was also a major part of the unification team....bring DDR into West Germany, and forming the new nation.
In this period leading up to 1994's German election....Schauble was attacked and suffered major physical damage....12 October 1990....putting him permanently into a wheel chair. Over a period of four months....he goes through a recovery, and stays around.
Some folks suggested there in the period leading up to 1994....that Kohl ought to go ahead and retire. He says no. What you can generally say is that the star for Schauble was brightest at this point.
As you pass through the next four years....Kohl's star dims.
Schauble steps in to being the party chairman in 1998. Again, you'd think that for this election period....Kohl would step down and Schauble would be the primary choice. But no....that wasn't going to happen.
Around 2000, there is a scandal which erupts around Helmet Kohl. It's over a secretive bank account with funds used by the CDU for party members....the account is outside of Germany. Schauble ends up having to resign from the party chairmanship, although he seems to have never been involved in the fund (at least people think that).
From that point on, Merkel had the lead for the CDU Party in Germany.
If Kohl had stepped down in 1990 or 1994? It's very likely Schauble would have been in position to be the next Chancellor. In the end, Kohl felt that he was not replaceable, and stayed beyond the point of any value.
Merkel rests in the Chancellor position today....mostly because of Kohl's stubbornness and ill-timing.
Last Minute German Voting Shift?
Some commentary within the various German news sources in the last week....have suggested that there are last-minute shifts laying out there, which could affect not only Merkel but Schulz and the SPD as well.
A terror act? It's possible that some act could occur and demonstrate once again, on a massive scale....immigration open-doors are a major problem. The hint is that a few percent from both the CDU and SPD....could shift over to the AfD....moving them from the 9-to-10 percent level of today....to 13-to-14 percent. Odds of happening? Probably 50-50 chance.
Last-minute corruption accusation? It's hard to imagine either Merkel or Schulz having any corruption angle attached, but further down the line, there might be members of either party with problems. Here again, you could be talking about a loss of three or four points shifting away.
Poor performance in the debates (two of them)? Neither Merkel or Schulz are capable of dynamic debate moments. Both are college-professor-types in political clothing. Neither are likely of giving a two-star performance or changing much of any public opinion at this point in the game.
The idea of the Merkel/CDU-CSU team losing eight points over the last month? It just won't happen.
The idea of the Schulz/SPD team gaining eight points over the last month? One might easily see three points being gained....mostly at the cost of the Linke Party or Green Party. The fact that the debates are arranged to be ONLY Merkel and Schulz....really means losses for the lesser parties in the end. That's something that they dislike about the way this is being handled.
A terror act? It's possible that some act could occur and demonstrate once again, on a massive scale....immigration open-doors are a major problem. The hint is that a few percent from both the CDU and SPD....could shift over to the AfD....moving them from the 9-to-10 percent level of today....to 13-to-14 percent. Odds of happening? Probably 50-50 chance.
Last-minute corruption accusation? It's hard to imagine either Merkel or Schulz having any corruption angle attached, but further down the line, there might be members of either party with problems. Here again, you could be talking about a loss of three or four points shifting away.
Poor performance in the debates (two of them)? Neither Merkel or Schulz are capable of dynamic debate moments. Both are college-professor-types in political clothing. Neither are likely of giving a two-star performance or changing much of any public opinion at this point in the game.
The idea of the Merkel/CDU-CSU team losing eight points over the last month? It just won't happen.
The idea of the Schulz/SPD team gaining eight points over the last month? One might easily see three points being gained....mostly at the cost of the Linke Party or Green Party. The fact that the debates are arranged to be ONLY Merkel and Schulz....really means losses for the lesser parties in the end. That's something that they dislike about the way this is being handled.
Dane Business Story
I noticed in business news this morning over Europe....a Bloomberg report which discussed this new trend in Denmark.
For those who've never been to Denmark....it's one of the more taxable countries in Europe. It doesn't matter if we are talking about new cars, gas sales, smokes, luxury items, etc. I've spent six weeks of my life in Denmark. My observation would be that it's a wonderful place....but difficult to imagine permanently living there with the taxation business.
Well....there's this new trend. There is a suggestion by the government to arrange tax cuts....across all classes of the public in the country.
The idea is to cut the country's tax base downward by 3.7-billion dollars of value. A hefty sum. Naturally, this would be phased through various years and take a while to reach.
Why the need? They need people to shift their priorities and work. When the unemployment rate was near 8-percent (2012)....it didn't really matter. Now? They are fairly near 4.3-percent back in early 2017....presently, the numbers are almost down to 3.5-percent. All of this represents labor shortages unless people work more or you get the unemployed eager to apply for jobs.
What you tend to notice over Nordic countries is a permanent cycle of boot-bust which occurs on a frequent basis. If you opened up the doors for more migration....there would be some point in five to ten years where the boom cycle would end, and you'd go through a bust-cycle....which leave you with a fair sum of migrates which you need to pay for.....because they are a permanent part of your society then.
Will the tax cuts really matter? It's hard to predict on this. I once talked to an American who had a Danish wife. He pointed out that new car sales were really screwed up because of the sale tax trend, and that most Danes bought cars and kept them for an extended period of time (more than a decade). Gas prices made it a difficult thing to purchase each tank of gas, and added up over a year.
Where do the cuts take place? Little is spoken over this and you have to wonder if they are just delaying road/bridge projects by two or three years each, and planning on making this a permanent thing.
For those who've never been to Denmark....it's one of the more taxable countries in Europe. It doesn't matter if we are talking about new cars, gas sales, smokes, luxury items, etc. I've spent six weeks of my life in Denmark. My observation would be that it's a wonderful place....but difficult to imagine permanently living there with the taxation business.
Well....there's this new trend. There is a suggestion by the government to arrange tax cuts....across all classes of the public in the country.
The idea is to cut the country's tax base downward by 3.7-billion dollars of value. A hefty sum. Naturally, this would be phased through various years and take a while to reach.
Why the need? They need people to shift their priorities and work. When the unemployment rate was near 8-percent (2012)....it didn't really matter. Now? They are fairly near 4.3-percent back in early 2017....presently, the numbers are almost down to 3.5-percent. All of this represents labor shortages unless people work more or you get the unemployed eager to apply for jobs.
What you tend to notice over Nordic countries is a permanent cycle of boot-bust which occurs on a frequent basis. If you opened up the doors for more migration....there would be some point in five to ten years where the boom cycle would end, and you'd go through a bust-cycle....which leave you with a fair sum of migrates which you need to pay for.....because they are a permanent part of your society then.
Will the tax cuts really matter? It's hard to predict on this. I once talked to an American who had a Danish wife. He pointed out that new car sales were really screwed up because of the sale tax trend, and that most Danes bought cars and kept them for an extended period of time (more than a decade). Gas prices made it a difficult thing to purchase each tank of gas, and added up over a year.
Where do the cuts take place? Little is spoken over this and you have to wonder if they are just delaying road/bridge projects by two or three years each, and planning on making this a permanent thing.
Pay Talk
It got noted this morning on ARD news...a topic which the political folks hate to discussions about....their salary structure.
German cities and states....all have a salary structure for their mayors, city council folks, and representatives in each state assembly. But the Berlin folks are kinda special.
If you serve in the Bundestag in Berlin....you make 9542 Euro a month. A fair sum of money.
Smartphones? Free....paid for by the German government. All of these folks get a phone. Note as well....a tax-free allowance given to the amount of 4,318 Euro per month.....to pay for paper, pens, rent for the second apartment they use in Berlin, etc. I would note here....that a decent upscale one-bedroom place in Berlin would easily run 1,200 Euro, and could easily go up into the 2,500 Euro range.
ARD also points out that each guy gets 12,000 Euro a year for office equipment (laptops, printers, etc).
If you just went and spent one single year in Berlin as a Bundestag individual....you would get 238 a Euro a year at age 67. It's roughly figured that with twenty-seven years of service in Berlin....you'd go home with 6,441 Euro a month.
The Chancellor's pay? 238,000 Euro a year.
A lot of this salary talk angers the general public. It's rarely dragged out in public-chat forums because there's just not a positive way to tell this story, which people believe. I could point the same issues with US representatives or Senators in DC.
There is this one odd aspect with the 2017 election. If the SPD does slide down to 22-percent on this election....a fair sum of individuals sitting in Berlin....won't be coming back in October, and their 'golden-cow' situation ends. It's a painful remainder about reality in Germany....you can be on the losing side and really lose more than just the election.
German cities and states....all have a salary structure for their mayors, city council folks, and representatives in each state assembly. But the Berlin folks are kinda special.
If you serve in the Bundestag in Berlin....you make 9542 Euro a month. A fair sum of money.
Smartphones? Free....paid for by the German government. All of these folks get a phone. Note as well....a tax-free allowance given to the amount of 4,318 Euro per month.....to pay for paper, pens, rent for the second apartment they use in Berlin, etc. I would note here....that a decent upscale one-bedroom place in Berlin would easily run 1,200 Euro, and could easily go up into the 2,500 Euro range.
ARD also points out that each guy gets 12,000 Euro a year for office equipment (laptops, printers, etc).
If you just went and spent one single year in Berlin as a Bundestag individual....you would get 238 a Euro a year at age 67. It's roughly figured that with twenty-seven years of service in Berlin....you'd go home with 6,441 Euro a month.
The Chancellor's pay? 238,000 Euro a year.
A lot of this salary talk angers the general public. It's rarely dragged out in public-chat forums because there's just not a positive way to tell this story, which people believe. I could point the same issues with US representatives or Senators in DC.
There is this one odd aspect with the 2017 election. If the SPD does slide down to 22-percent on this election....a fair sum of individuals sitting in Berlin....won't be coming back in October, and their 'golden-cow' situation ends. It's a painful remainder about reality in Germany....you can be on the losing side and really lose more than just the election.
On the Topic of Transportation
In my regional state of Hessen....there's always a fair amount of political hype over 'fixing things'. The topic came up this week over state funding and the future of transportation in the region. For those who aren't aware....Hessen's government is a coalition deal, with the CDU sharing power with the Green Party (yes, an odd pair). The Greens have control of the Transportation Ministry for Hessen, and this often leads to some curious moments.
First, there's a new agenda for more state funds to go toward electric mobility from 2018 and on....pushing the yearly amount to almost seven million Euro. Where will it be spent? More foot and bicycle paths....leading into urbanized areas or railway stations.
Naturally, the opposition in the state assembly (the SPD) said that this was not enough....they wanted more money spent. The other opposition....the FDP....said there was some kind of 'hysterical fear' talk going on about diesel cars.
The political folks also wanted to hype up the talk that they are on the cutting edge and the main state in Germany....pushing for electric buses. Wiesbaden for example....is supposed to completely shift from diesel buses to electric buses within four years.
I paused over this talk....I ride the Wiesbaden city bus network, and it's a 30-minute ride from mid-town to my village stop. I can just see the bus-driver freaking out on an exceptionally cold day and noting the charge needle slipping by one-percent every two minutes. He'll have to stop at the end of the route to recharge for an hour before he can make the return trip. For some reason, I don't see this electric bus thing going well.
Then the next ministry topic came up....more e-Laden recharge stations around Hessen. If you go looking....there just aren't that public stations around. In my village? Not a single one. Some folks have a home-charging station set up but nothing for the general public. So, there's going to be funding for some urban areas to set up ore recharge stations.
The opposition talk? They think cheaper tickets for buses/trains....would be the long-term fix, and simply get cars off the road period.
Finally, I noted comments from the state president (Volker Bouffier, CDU). He doesn't think any of this diesel-car banning business will occur. Maybe down the road toward 2030....things settle in a different way, but he's talking like the ban will never occur in Hessen.
A hot topic in the public mind? There are bits and pieces over all of this talk which register with the typical adult German in Hessen. If you asked a hundred Hessens about getting a electric car....maybe five would be positive about the idea, and maybe another five could be persuaded....the bulk of folks think this is still twenty years away on technology.
On the bike trail topic, I'm kinda shocked at the extent of progress over the past two decades. With plans on the map....a guy could (in the next three years) get on a bike and ride forty kilometers to work each morning very easily in the urban zone of Frankfurt. They even talk of lighted paths and wide-lanes for bicycle flow.
First, there's a new agenda for more state funds to go toward electric mobility from 2018 and on....pushing the yearly amount to almost seven million Euro. Where will it be spent? More foot and bicycle paths....leading into urbanized areas or railway stations.
Naturally, the opposition in the state assembly (the SPD) said that this was not enough....they wanted more money spent. The other opposition....the FDP....said there was some kind of 'hysterical fear' talk going on about diesel cars.
The political folks also wanted to hype up the talk that they are on the cutting edge and the main state in Germany....pushing for electric buses. Wiesbaden for example....is supposed to completely shift from diesel buses to electric buses within four years.
I paused over this talk....I ride the Wiesbaden city bus network, and it's a 30-minute ride from mid-town to my village stop. I can just see the bus-driver freaking out on an exceptionally cold day and noting the charge needle slipping by one-percent every two minutes. He'll have to stop at the end of the route to recharge for an hour before he can make the return trip. For some reason, I don't see this electric bus thing going well.
Then the next ministry topic came up....more e-Laden recharge stations around Hessen. If you go looking....there just aren't that public stations around. In my village? Not a single one. Some folks have a home-charging station set up but nothing for the general public. So, there's going to be funding for some urban areas to set up ore recharge stations.
The opposition talk? They think cheaper tickets for buses/trains....would be the long-term fix, and simply get cars off the road period.
Finally, I noted comments from the state president (Volker Bouffier, CDU). He doesn't think any of this diesel-car banning business will occur. Maybe down the road toward 2030....things settle in a different way, but he's talking like the ban will never occur in Hessen.
A hot topic in the public mind? There are bits and pieces over all of this talk which register with the typical adult German in Hessen. If you asked a hundred Hessens about getting a electric car....maybe five would be positive about the idea, and maybe another five could be persuaded....the bulk of folks think this is still twenty years away on technology.
On the bike trail topic, I'm kinda shocked at the extent of progress over the past two decades. With plans on the map....a guy could (in the next three years) get on a bike and ride forty kilometers to work each morning very easily in the urban zone of Frankfurt. They even talk of lighted paths and wide-lanes for bicycle flow.
News Night for Me
I sat last night and watched through two hours of German Channel Two (ZDF) and news-doc-style programming.
First, at 8:15PM, came Merkel Against Schulz....a forty-five minute amusing piece. ZDF's team tried to lead you to the fact that there are only two ways to vote in this election....either for the CDU or SPD...end of the story.
If you gaze at the numbers....almost forty-percent of the nation will NOT be voting for either Merkel or Schulz, or their respected parties.
The slant of the piece? It was almost a fifty-fifty piece, then they slipped in the disappointment talk by CDU folks over the immigration mess. Schulz got the slight nod on this documentary piece but not by much.
For me, it was a spoon-episode where ZDF attempted to lead you over to Schulz. The thing is....the vast majority of Germans weren't watching the show, and most have already made up their mind on the candidate that they will vote for. For the folks who did watch....they'd be asking about the SPD immigration talk, which is slanted in a particular way.
Second, at 9:00PM, came the Frontal-21 Show....a collection of news documentary pieces.
They led off with the unfairness of German rich and poor. Various people laid out their marginal income situations....they couldn't afford to take vacations....they couldn't live in the appropriate lifestyles....they were unfairly treated with low-income housing...etc. This more or less led you to the idea of more taxation and wealth-redistribution. I commented on this to my German wife, and she gave me the 'evil-eye'....noting 'YES, it's all about more taxes on everyone'.
At one point, they threw up salary structure of company CEO's....which is a favorite topic of the anti-capitalist crowd. The political folks would like to invent some way of controlling CEO salary....yet they seem to have some fear over this objective and always just talk over the topic.
After the unfairness piece....then came the unfair nature of fast internet. Yes, all throughout Germany....people are suffering because there is a lack of high-speed fiber-optic cabling leading to their home or business.
The blame here? Naturally, it's the government's fault. The idea that this is all done in cycles and stages....planned out over years....never dawned on the ZDF team. Yes, you need to blame the government for the lack of speed.
I sat there for a few minutes, and kinda asked the question to my German wife.....just how big a priority is this? As she kinda cynically noted....it's not on her top hundred problems (she advocates dumping daylight savings time as in her top ten issues).....might not even make it to the top two-hundred problems. I suspect for most folks over the age of forty in Germany.....there are tons of higher problems which people worry about.
Now, if you were thirteen years old and hyped up for gaming or video-viewing or conversing with lusty Ukrainian ladies....YES, this is in the top three problems in your life. You would continually be asking Mom about this....and the local telephone maintenance guy who visits the neighborhood.
At some point, they threw up some slide....noting all of the Nordic countries (Finland, Denmark, Norway and Sweden) have high internet speeds than Germany, and South Korea is at the absolute top. Germany? Way down around number fifteen in the world.
Finally, the last big piece with the new-doc folks was the secretive agenda by the AfD Political folks, and some super-secret lobbyist group funneling money into their political operations. Some group called LobbyControl was hyped up against the secretive agenda....but I kept wondering, who the heck pays the LobbyControl folks?
Secret money flowing around? Yes, with no doubt. But you can go to virtually every single party in Germany, and find lobby groups trying to get an insider situation. To act like it's just the AfD Party alone? That's a joke.
First, at 8:15PM, came Merkel Against Schulz....a forty-five minute amusing piece. ZDF's team tried to lead you to the fact that there are only two ways to vote in this election....either for the CDU or SPD...end of the story.
If you gaze at the numbers....almost forty-percent of the nation will NOT be voting for either Merkel or Schulz, or their respected parties.
The slant of the piece? It was almost a fifty-fifty piece, then they slipped in the disappointment talk by CDU folks over the immigration mess. Schulz got the slight nod on this documentary piece but not by much.
For me, it was a spoon-episode where ZDF attempted to lead you over to Schulz. The thing is....the vast majority of Germans weren't watching the show, and most have already made up their mind on the candidate that they will vote for. For the folks who did watch....they'd be asking about the SPD immigration talk, which is slanted in a particular way.
Second, at 9:00PM, came the Frontal-21 Show....a collection of news documentary pieces.
They led off with the unfairness of German rich and poor. Various people laid out their marginal income situations....they couldn't afford to take vacations....they couldn't live in the appropriate lifestyles....they were unfairly treated with low-income housing...etc. This more or less led you to the idea of more taxation and wealth-redistribution. I commented on this to my German wife, and she gave me the 'evil-eye'....noting 'YES, it's all about more taxes on everyone'.
At one point, they threw up salary structure of company CEO's....which is a favorite topic of the anti-capitalist crowd. The political folks would like to invent some way of controlling CEO salary....yet they seem to have some fear over this objective and always just talk over the topic.
After the unfairness piece....then came the unfair nature of fast internet. Yes, all throughout Germany....people are suffering because there is a lack of high-speed fiber-optic cabling leading to their home or business.
The blame here? Naturally, it's the government's fault. The idea that this is all done in cycles and stages....planned out over years....never dawned on the ZDF team. Yes, you need to blame the government for the lack of speed.
I sat there for a few minutes, and kinda asked the question to my German wife.....just how big a priority is this? As she kinda cynically noted....it's not on her top hundred problems (she advocates dumping daylight savings time as in her top ten issues).....might not even make it to the top two-hundred problems. I suspect for most folks over the age of forty in Germany.....there are tons of higher problems which people worry about.
Now, if you were thirteen years old and hyped up for gaming or video-viewing or conversing with lusty Ukrainian ladies....YES, this is in the top three problems in your life. You would continually be asking Mom about this....and the local telephone maintenance guy who visits the neighborhood.
At some point, they threw up some slide....noting all of the Nordic countries (Finland, Denmark, Norway and Sweden) have high internet speeds than Germany, and South Korea is at the absolute top. Germany? Way down around number fifteen in the world.
Finally, the last big piece with the new-doc folks was the secretive agenda by the AfD Political folks, and some super-secret lobbyist group funneling money into their political operations. Some group called LobbyControl was hyped up against the secretive agenda....but I kept wondering, who the heck pays the LobbyControl folks?
Secret money flowing around? Yes, with no doubt. But you can go to virtually every single party in Germany, and find lobby groups trying to get an insider situation. To act like it's just the AfD Party alone? That's a joke.
Tuesday, August 29, 2017
Political Promises from the SPD?
One of the curious notes I came across in this 2017 German election....is a list of 'promises' by SPD's Martin Schulz....on law enforcement.
First, like everyone else....he wanted to put more cops out on the street. To be honest, virtually every party has gone to promise this one.
Second, he wanted to create one single unit of EU folks for border over the Schengen area. Naturally, they wouldn't report back to the country they are protecting....just to the EU. I suspect most folks saw through that promise.
Third, he wanted a European FBI. The fact that Interpol already exists? He wanted people who actually investigate....cross borders....and hunt thugs, but all under the EU umbrella...NOT the German government. Again, most folks saw through that promise.
Fourth, more video surveillance on high-public areas. Naturally, local cities would probably stand in the way of this unless they saw this as being beneficial to their cause. On paper, this sounded great, but with the Green Party running most city councils now....this idea would go mostly nowhere.
Fifth, he wanted to hype up the installation of burglar-proof windows and doors. Did he mean that the German government would help to pay for this? No. Just that they'd talk about this and maybe hype advertising. Cheap talk would be a good description on this political promise.
Sixth and final....he wanted anyone considered a 'threat' to be set with electronic leg-cuffs. The option already exists, if judges would simply order it. So far....across the entire nation....it's a very limited number of people who have been ordered into this situation, and the Bundestag would have to pass a law ordering judges to take this action if people met certain conditions. Legal challenges? Oh, absolutely.
Any of these appealing the public? No....not that much.
First, like everyone else....he wanted to put more cops out on the street. To be honest, virtually every party has gone to promise this one.
Second, he wanted to create one single unit of EU folks for border over the Schengen area. Naturally, they wouldn't report back to the country they are protecting....just to the EU. I suspect most folks saw through that promise.
Third, he wanted a European FBI. The fact that Interpol already exists? He wanted people who actually investigate....cross borders....and hunt thugs, but all under the EU umbrella...NOT the German government. Again, most folks saw through that promise.
Fourth, more video surveillance on high-public areas. Naturally, local cities would probably stand in the way of this unless they saw this as being beneficial to their cause. On paper, this sounded great, but with the Green Party running most city councils now....this idea would go mostly nowhere.
Fifth, he wanted to hype up the installation of burglar-proof windows and doors. Did he mean that the German government would help to pay for this? No. Just that they'd talk about this and maybe hype advertising. Cheap talk would be a good description on this political promise.
Sixth and final....he wanted anyone considered a 'threat' to be set with electronic leg-cuffs. The option already exists, if judges would simply order it. So far....across the entire nation....it's a very limited number of people who have been ordered into this situation, and the Bundestag would have to pass a law ordering judges to take this action if people met certain conditions. Legal challenges? Oh, absolutely.
Any of these appealing the public? No....not that much.
Vote Story
A lot of Germans will say this is an election over six political parties, but in truth....there are at least thirty parties in the running. I ran through a ARD listing, and found four kind of interesting oddball groups:
1. The Hip Hop Party: It was formed up about seven months ago, centers mostly in Berlin. What's said about their platform? They believe Hip-Hop is a culture and international movement. They also think that Hip-Hop can transtion through all problems (food, commerce, etc). This is a party that also believes that there is no dividing line between cities and countries. Social justice for all.....no ID of gender....everyone is the same. I should note.....they were only able to make it on the national ballot for Berlin.....no one else in Germany will be able to vote for them.
2. The Bavaria Party. Course, you can only vote for this party if you live in Bavaria. Their main theme is to separate Bavaria out from Germany. Interesting enough....they want to dump the smoking ban within buildings (German national law). Direct-democracy? Yes, absolutely. They want to dump the Solidarity Tax. And they want to ensure regional dialects are taught in the school system.....no more clean-German accents.
3. The Magdeburger Garden Party. They also get mentioned as "Dark Green". They've been around for four years and you can only vote for them in Saxony-Anhalt. They are against construction plans for small garden plots. They want Hartz IV welfare to be dissolved. They also call for a reduction in the retirement age....down to 65. One-Euro jobs? Out. Mostly a joke, if you ask me.
4. The Mountain Party. They insist it's not a parody. They want to be viewed as the most far left of left party in existence. They insist on the goal of melting away a car for each tree cut down (yes, you can imagine that going well in Germany). You can only vote for the party in the state area of Berlin (the land without mountains). They insist upon getting rid of capitalism, and creating a free society. They also insist that the German military needs to go away.....being dumped completely.
The thing is....nationally....each of the four parties I mentioned might actually get two or three thousand votes. In some ways, it's a sign that the nation has a number of people who just don't believe in democracy being worth all this effort. What happens if the Mountain Party were to get 12-percent of the vote? Total shock.....but the fact that you can only vote for them if you live in Berlin....means it's a small group of folks who have the chance to vote this way.
1. The Hip Hop Party: It was formed up about seven months ago, centers mostly in Berlin. What's said about their platform? They believe Hip-Hop is a culture and international movement. They also think that Hip-Hop can transtion through all problems (food, commerce, etc). This is a party that also believes that there is no dividing line between cities and countries. Social justice for all.....no ID of gender....everyone is the same. I should note.....they were only able to make it on the national ballot for Berlin.....no one else in Germany will be able to vote for them.
2. The Bavaria Party. Course, you can only vote for this party if you live in Bavaria. Their main theme is to separate Bavaria out from Germany. Interesting enough....they want to dump the smoking ban within buildings (German national law). Direct-democracy? Yes, absolutely. They want to dump the Solidarity Tax. And they want to ensure regional dialects are taught in the school system.....no more clean-German accents.
3. The Magdeburger Garden Party. They also get mentioned as "Dark Green". They've been around for four years and you can only vote for them in Saxony-Anhalt. They are against construction plans for small garden plots. They want Hartz IV welfare to be dissolved. They also call for a reduction in the retirement age....down to 65. One-Euro jobs? Out. Mostly a joke, if you ask me.
4. The Mountain Party. They insist it's not a parody. They want to be viewed as the most far left of left party in existence. They insist on the goal of melting away a car for each tree cut down (yes, you can imagine that going well in Germany). You can only vote for the party in the state area of Berlin (the land without mountains). They insist upon getting rid of capitalism, and creating a free society. They also insist that the German military needs to go away.....being dumped completely.
The thing is....nationally....each of the four parties I mentioned might actually get two or three thousand votes. In some ways, it's a sign that the nation has a number of people who just don't believe in democracy being worth all this effort. What happens if the Mountain Party were to get 12-percent of the vote? Total shock.....but the fact that you can only vote for them if you live in Berlin....means it's a small group of folks who have the chance to vote this way.
The Only German Political Party to Advocate a Kingdom
You could make a 500-page book out of this but I'll try to limit this story to forty lines.
Around 1869....a Prussian (before we use the term German) political party came to exist which was named the German-Hanoverian Party or the Guelph Party. It existed for roughly sixty-five-odd years out of the Hanover region of northwest Germany.
Oddly, it's a conservative political party, and definitely right-wing.
They come together in the 1860s period to complain over the way that Hanover was annexed into the Prussian empire (a result of the Austria-Prussian War....a rather short event).
The Kingdom of Hanover ceased to exist in this new situation. The party worked for decades to reverse this situation. As the Kaiser was sent off in 1919....there was this brief time where some folks thought that the Kingdom could be revived. With the Weimar Republic....that wasn't going to happen. The 'kingdom' party made a decision in the 1933 period to dissolve, rather than have the Nazi Party control them.
As for the big long era of the Kingdom to actually exist prior to 1869? Well, that gets into another interesting story.
After the Napoleon era, there's a meeting in Austria to sort out dozens of issues. This region around Hanover is eventually determined by the Congress of Vienna (1814) to become a kingdom....out of thin air.
George III....already king of England....was determined to be the king of Hanover as well.
Now, you might add a footnote here, that while in his youth....George III was a thoughtful and logical kind of guy....eventually over the years, he was affected by mental disease, and this is argued to a great extent. Most historians will say that George III was never truly in charge and that his son....George IV....was the actual King.
In the 1860s.....the Kingdom of Hanover attempted to stay neutral and avoided the discussion of joining the Prussian Empire that was moving in and taking over numerous smaller Germanic states. This attempt was a failure.
Most people will say that the period of roughly fifty-two years were the most productive of the region and the connection to the Kingdom of Hanover was the reason for that. The Kingdom of Hanover Party? Their objective was to revive the Kingdom and exit out of Germany.
Is there a king to the Kingdom of Hanover existing today? No....although there is a Prince (Ernst August).
It's one of those odd political stories within German history....a political party with the stance of bringing back a Kingdom, and a King.
Around 1869....a Prussian (before we use the term German) political party came to exist which was named the German-Hanoverian Party or the Guelph Party. It existed for roughly sixty-five-odd years out of the Hanover region of northwest Germany.
Oddly, it's a conservative political party, and definitely right-wing.
They come together in the 1860s period to complain over the way that Hanover was annexed into the Prussian empire (a result of the Austria-Prussian War....a rather short event).
The Kingdom of Hanover ceased to exist in this new situation. The party worked for decades to reverse this situation. As the Kaiser was sent off in 1919....there was this brief time where some folks thought that the Kingdom could be revived. With the Weimar Republic....that wasn't going to happen. The 'kingdom' party made a decision in the 1933 period to dissolve, rather than have the Nazi Party control them.
As for the big long era of the Kingdom to actually exist prior to 1869? Well, that gets into another interesting story.
After the Napoleon era, there's a meeting in Austria to sort out dozens of issues. This region around Hanover is eventually determined by the Congress of Vienna (1814) to become a kingdom....out of thin air.
George III....already king of England....was determined to be the king of Hanover as well.
Now, you might add a footnote here, that while in his youth....George III was a thoughtful and logical kind of guy....eventually over the years, he was affected by mental disease, and this is argued to a great extent. Most historians will say that George III was never truly in charge and that his son....George IV....was the actual King.
In the 1860s.....the Kingdom of Hanover attempted to stay neutral and avoided the discussion of joining the Prussian Empire that was moving in and taking over numerous smaller Germanic states. This attempt was a failure.
Most people will say that the period of roughly fifty-two years were the most productive of the region and the connection to the Kingdom of Hanover was the reason for that. The Kingdom of Hanover Party? Their objective was to revive the Kingdom and exit out of Germany.
Is there a king to the Kingdom of Hanover existing today? No....although there is a Prince (Ernst August).
It's one of those odd political stories within German history....a political party with the stance of bringing back a Kingdom, and a King.
Antifa and Some History
Very few people realize that the Antifa movement that you see on college campuses today.....originally started out in the 1930s in Nazi-Germany.
In the late 1920s....the Nationalists Socialists were the party on the aggressive move in Germany. It would be wrong to say that the vast number of Germans were lined up and supporting the party.
In this period leading up to the Weimar Republic....before 1919, the SPD Party was the party was on the cutting edge of society....mostly leaning toward unions and common workers. In 1912, they won around one-third of the votes in the national Bundestag election. After the Kaiser is sent out, and elections held in 1919....the SPD expands on their vote and gets 38-percent of the votes. It's safe to say that the left-of-center political groups are winning big (or enough) in 1919.
As you go through the 1920 and 1924 elections....the SPD however....is on a loss-situation. In 1924, they are only able to get up around 20-percent of the vote.
Between the SPD and the Communist Party in the 1930 election....they received around 38-percent of the vote....against the Nazi Party numbers of 18-percent (2nd place). Over the next two years....the Nazis double their votes (to 37-percent). The SPD and Communists together? 36-percent. Both groups are realizing the oncoming surge and the change in government coming.
This period of 1932 and 1933 is an interesting era. The Nazis are using Brown-Shirts as thugs on the street....pressing on their agenda and public stance. For Hitler and the elite....the Brown Shirts by early 1933 are seen as a negative....not a positive. They are basically cut off by June of 1934, with the 'Night of the Long Knives'.
But before this June 1934 period starts up....the SPD and Communist Party have decided that they need their thug-device, so they create the Antifa (in simple nature, the thugs against the Brown-Shirts).
Some would suggest that the idea came out of the early 1920s in Italy, with the Black-Shirts. Maybe it's a historical piece where some SPD folks visited Italy and saw a useful tool later in the 1930s.
The general story that is told....is that by the mid-1930s...Antifa continued to exist but it was more of a secretive organization and fearful to some degree of the Nazi use of the police and courts.
As 1945 comes....the Antifa goup emerges as the Americans arrive in Germany. These are mostly men in their 40s and 50s....who had not been an active part of the military because of their age.
Oddly, the Russians....as they arrive into East Germany....bless off the Antifa folks, and label the political parties under that umbrella. In this sense, they were supposed to be the 'good guys'.
Modern Antifa? Even in the DDR days (old East Germany under the Soviet empire).....they were dispatched in various acceptable forms to counter the Nazis. The claim is often made in the 1980s (before the wall came down)....that Antifa were active in Dresden and countering the Nazi groups that existed then....during the Soviet period. How the Nazis existed in a highly controlled DDR lifestyle or culture? Unknown....no one has ever been able to explain this remarkable situation and one has to be skeptical that an actual Nazi front existed in old DDR.
So Antifa comes out of the German SPD (American-style Democratic Party) and the Communist Party? Yes. It's the strong-arm thug-like device....built to work like the Brown-Shorts (Germany) or the Black-Shirts (Italy).
So you gaze back over at the 2017 opera being played out in the US. Antifa (Black-Shirts) versus Nazis. Same old 1930s German opera being set to the stage.
Who financed the 1930s Antifa? There wasn't a necessity for much money, but the protests and demonstrations that occurred? All planned out and orchestrated.
You could even go back to the late 1950s and through the late 1970s....in West Germany, and note the new Antifa were now labeled the Red Army Faction. Strong-arm tactics....public media orchestrations....thug-like behavior.
Antifa existing in modern Germany today? Yes....in the form of anti-capitalists (the G-20 Summit in Hamburg back in July is a good example). Note that police in Hamburg stayed back and let the fires and property damage occur. Again, an orchestration.
In the late 1920s....the Nationalists Socialists were the party on the aggressive move in Germany. It would be wrong to say that the vast number of Germans were lined up and supporting the party.
In this period leading up to the Weimar Republic....before 1919, the SPD Party was the party was on the cutting edge of society....mostly leaning toward unions and common workers. In 1912, they won around one-third of the votes in the national Bundestag election. After the Kaiser is sent out, and elections held in 1919....the SPD expands on their vote and gets 38-percent of the votes. It's safe to say that the left-of-center political groups are winning big (or enough) in 1919.
As you go through the 1920 and 1924 elections....the SPD however....is on a loss-situation. In 1924, they are only able to get up around 20-percent of the vote.
Between the SPD and the Communist Party in the 1930 election....they received around 38-percent of the vote....against the Nazi Party numbers of 18-percent (2nd place). Over the next two years....the Nazis double their votes (to 37-percent). The SPD and Communists together? 36-percent. Both groups are realizing the oncoming surge and the change in government coming.
This period of 1932 and 1933 is an interesting era. The Nazis are using Brown-Shirts as thugs on the street....pressing on their agenda and public stance. For Hitler and the elite....the Brown Shirts by early 1933 are seen as a negative....not a positive. They are basically cut off by June of 1934, with the 'Night of the Long Knives'.
But before this June 1934 period starts up....the SPD and Communist Party have decided that they need their thug-device, so they create the Antifa (in simple nature, the thugs against the Brown-Shirts).
Some would suggest that the idea came out of the early 1920s in Italy, with the Black-Shirts. Maybe it's a historical piece where some SPD folks visited Italy and saw a useful tool later in the 1930s.
The general story that is told....is that by the mid-1930s...Antifa continued to exist but it was more of a secretive organization and fearful to some degree of the Nazi use of the police and courts.
As 1945 comes....the Antifa goup emerges as the Americans arrive in Germany. These are mostly men in their 40s and 50s....who had not been an active part of the military because of their age.
Oddly, the Russians....as they arrive into East Germany....bless off the Antifa folks, and label the political parties under that umbrella. In this sense, they were supposed to be the 'good guys'.
Modern Antifa? Even in the DDR days (old East Germany under the Soviet empire).....they were dispatched in various acceptable forms to counter the Nazis. The claim is often made in the 1980s (before the wall came down)....that Antifa were active in Dresden and countering the Nazi groups that existed then....during the Soviet period. How the Nazis existed in a highly controlled DDR lifestyle or culture? Unknown....no one has ever been able to explain this remarkable situation and one has to be skeptical that an actual Nazi front existed in old DDR.
So Antifa comes out of the German SPD (American-style Democratic Party) and the Communist Party? Yes. It's the strong-arm thug-like device....built to work like the Brown-Shorts (Germany) or the Black-Shirts (Italy).
So you gaze back over at the 2017 opera being played out in the US. Antifa (Black-Shirts) versus Nazis. Same old 1930s German opera being set to the stage.
Who financed the 1930s Antifa? There wasn't a necessity for much money, but the protests and demonstrations that occurred? All planned out and orchestrated.
You could even go back to the late 1950s and through the late 1970s....in West Germany, and note the new Antifa were now labeled the Red Army Faction. Strong-arm tactics....public media orchestrations....thug-like behavior.
Antifa existing in modern Germany today? Yes....in the form of anti-capitalists (the G-20 Summit in Hamburg back in July is a good example). Note that police in Hamburg stayed back and let the fires and property damage occur. Again, an orchestration.
Tool to Counter Sick-Leave in Germany
If you work in Germany....one of the dozen-odd benefits that you typically get....is sick leave. The normal method is that you can call in and claim the first day....without a doctor's note. After that, you need to visit the doctor and get a note. In some companies....even the first day of sick leave requires the doctor's note.
So the topic came up in the news today, with WDR (regional public TV news).
Some companies are pushing across this new concept....a monthly premium (bonus) if you make it the entire month without a single day of sick leave. Naturally, some unions are upset about this type of deal.
The amount discussed? 450 Euro a month. For most Germans, that's a fair amount of money ($500 roughly).
This came up with a commercial security organization (private security).
Legally, attendance bonuses have been reviewed in the past and never found to be illegal. What's generally said is that you can make this a monthly deal, or even a yearly deal.
The odds of this taking off and being a tool with most German companies? Zero. However, if you were a company where you need X-number of people to be on some shift each day and perform....it might be beneficial to officer an incentive like this. Taxable? Oh yes.
So the topic came up in the news today, with WDR (regional public TV news).
Some companies are pushing across this new concept....a monthly premium (bonus) if you make it the entire month without a single day of sick leave. Naturally, some unions are upset about this type of deal.
The amount discussed? 450 Euro a month. For most Germans, that's a fair amount of money ($500 roughly).
This came up with a commercial security organization (private security).
Legally, attendance bonuses have been reviewed in the past and never found to be illegal. What's generally said is that you can make this a monthly deal, or even a yearly deal.
The odds of this taking off and being a tool with most German companies? Zero. However, if you were a company where you need X-number of people to be on some shift each day and perform....it might be beneficial to officer an incentive like this. Taxable? Oh yes.
Monday, August 28, 2017
That Turku Episode Update
About a week ago, I brought up a knife-attack in Turku, Finland. At the time, the story circled around the captured guy.....a failed-asylum immigrant from Morocco.
So today, the rest of the story got put out.
Yes, the young did have a major problem on his application. Not only did he use a false name.....but he was not a juvenile....he was likely 23 years old.
This trend of using youth ages when young guys show up in a European country....goes with the logic that these countries won't send you back to your home-country, and that they will put you into the school system...providing more incentives. In the Finland case....the asylum investigation crowd eventually figured out this guy's story.
Because there are two people dead and eight wounded....he's going to do fairly serious jail-time. At the end of that period? One might take a guess that he'll end up being deported back to Morocco at that point.
So today, the rest of the story got put out.
Yes, the young did have a major problem on his application. Not only did he use a false name.....but he was not a juvenile....he was likely 23 years old.
This trend of using youth ages when young guys show up in a European country....goes with the logic that these countries won't send you back to your home-country, and that they will put you into the school system...providing more incentives. In the Finland case....the asylum investigation crowd eventually figured out this guy's story.
Because there are two people dead and eight wounded....he's going to do fairly serious jail-time. At the end of that period? One might take a guess that he'll end up being deported back to Morocco at that point.
Diesel Car Talk
While on the political trail yesterday in Germany, Chancellor Merkel came up and noted....in her humble opinion....that diesel cars would likely continue to be part of the landscape for 'years and years'.
What she also said, which was a curious note.....is that from 2030 (the mythical year that battery-cars are the only vehicles sold new).....there will be no further diesel vehicles on the road.
If you went around and asked for the top five issues of this campaign, then virtually every single diesel owner in Germany would tell you this topic is extremely important. Presently, the legal system is progressing to the point where they will allow cities to ban diesel car operations, unless the Bundestag steps into the path and determines that only they have this authority.
Diesel car production? If you bring new diesel car sales....people are generally scared that they might buy a car and find in the months to come that it can't be driven into certain cities. I think as we approach the end of 2017....new diesel car sales will be stalled and hit rock-bottom.
How the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition government (very likely to be still around after the election) work this out? Basically an unknown. The SPD political figure in the Environmental Ministry is not making this episode any easier.
What she also said, which was a curious note.....is that from 2030 (the mythical year that battery-cars are the only vehicles sold new).....there will be no further diesel vehicles on the road.
If you went around and asked for the top five issues of this campaign, then virtually every single diesel owner in Germany would tell you this topic is extremely important. Presently, the legal system is progressing to the point where they will allow cities to ban diesel car operations, unless the Bundestag steps into the path and determines that only they have this authority.
Diesel car production? If you bring new diesel car sales....people are generally scared that they might buy a car and find in the months to come that it can't be driven into certain cities. I think as we approach the end of 2017....new diesel car sales will be stalled and hit rock-bottom.
How the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition government (very likely to be still around after the election) work this out? Basically an unknown. The SPD political figure in the Environmental Ministry is not making this episode any easier.
A Religious Question
Bild went out and asked an unusual question in the middle of this political season.....is Islam a part of Germany today? Does it belong to Germany?
You could have phrased this in various ways and gotten various answers.
So, INSA (the research foundation) did the work, with 1,000 folks polled.
Roughly a quarter of the Germans said absolutely yes. Most Germans (60-percent) said no.
When they asked people who said they were CDU voters....only 29-percent said that Islam was an integral part of Germany.
Even when you polled Green Party voters....roughly 45-percent said no.
Then they got around to the political crowd that really matter at this point in the election....the undecided, and found that 57-percent said no as well.
It is an odd prospective. The Chancellor....most of the voice from the CDU and SPD, along with the Greens....will say that Islam is a part of Germany in 2017. The public? They aren't reading the script or following along with the narrative.
Does any of this matter? No.
The Basic Law (the Constitution) guarantees people the right to pick and choose their religion. So your opinion about religions....doesn't really matter. Maybe if some Alabama folks showed up to practice their religion with handling rattlesnakes.....that might get some quick law written to outlaw one religion, but no one is going to change much on the Islam business.
Why should Bild bring this up? At this point in the election.....there's usually not anything to change things....like some corruption episode or some fraud. However....you could twist something here and there and suddenly find that the AfD folks move from that point of two months ago of 8-percent.....to something like 11-or-12 percent....just on people reflecting on an issue like this.
You could have phrased this in various ways and gotten various answers.
So, INSA (the research foundation) did the work, with 1,000 folks polled.
Roughly a quarter of the Germans said absolutely yes. Most Germans (60-percent) said no.
When they asked people who said they were CDU voters....only 29-percent said that Islam was an integral part of Germany.
Even when you polled Green Party voters....roughly 45-percent said no.
Then they got around to the political crowd that really matter at this point in the election....the undecided, and found that 57-percent said no as well.
It is an odd prospective. The Chancellor....most of the voice from the CDU and SPD, along with the Greens....will say that Islam is a part of Germany in 2017. The public? They aren't reading the script or following along with the narrative.
Does any of this matter? No.
The Basic Law (the Constitution) guarantees people the right to pick and choose their religion. So your opinion about religions....doesn't really matter. Maybe if some Alabama folks showed up to practice their religion with handling rattlesnakes.....that might get some quick law written to outlaw one religion, but no one is going to change much on the Islam business.
Why should Bild bring this up? At this point in the election.....there's usually not anything to change things....like some corruption episode or some fraud. However....you could twist something here and there and suddenly find that the AfD folks move from that point of two months ago of 8-percent.....to something like 11-or-12 percent....just on people reflecting on an issue like this.
Hamburg Case Opens and Closes
It's been roughly eight weeks since the G-20 Summit in Hamburg.....and the violent riots that occurred. Today was the first case to come up with a 'player' in the riots.
Dutch guy.....21 years old.
Evidence was presented.....prosecutor laid out the charge.....dangerous bodily harm and resistance to the cops. Defense gave their version of the situation. All in one single day.
Judge wrapped up the verdict.....guilty. Sentence? Well, this gets to being interesting. 2.5 years of prison. Even if he gets some good-time off....he's looking at two whole years of his life, in a German prison.
Fair number of the kid's supporters showed up and gave him some support in the court-room. They were a bit shocked at the outcome. First of many? Yes, that was the news observation....and their attorneys have to be sitting there and thinking that each of their clients might be looking at real time in jail....not a dismissal.
The judge? I'm taking a guess here but I think he's there to clean up this whole mess and demonstrate that the law will be respected.
In some ways, I feel sorry for these young punks will come up on the various charges. They were led around by friends and associates back in the spring and summer. They were told that there's nothing much to worry about and you can harass the cops without worry. Giving up two years of your life? For some 'game' in Hamburg? It's just not worth it.
Dutch guy.....21 years old.
Evidence was presented.....prosecutor laid out the charge.....dangerous bodily harm and resistance to the cops. Defense gave their version of the situation. All in one single day.
Judge wrapped up the verdict.....guilty. Sentence? Well, this gets to being interesting. 2.5 years of prison. Even if he gets some good-time off....he's looking at two whole years of his life, in a German prison.
Fair number of the kid's supporters showed up and gave him some support in the court-room. They were a bit shocked at the outcome. First of many? Yes, that was the news observation....and their attorneys have to be sitting there and thinking that each of their clients might be looking at real time in jail....not a dismissal.
The judge? I'm taking a guess here but I think he's there to clean up this whole mess and demonstrate that the law will be respected.
In some ways, I feel sorry for these young punks will come up on the various charges. They were led around by friends and associates back in the spring and summer. They were told that there's nothing much to worry about and you can harass the cops without worry. Giving up two years of your life? For some 'game' in Hamburg? It's just not worth it.
Travel Advice: Deflt, NL
Ten points of advice:
1. If you visit Den Haag for a few days, I'd advise to use one whole day for Deflt (35 min tram-ride) from Haag.
2. Skip using a car. Take tram number 1 from Den Haag (it's on the interior of the Haag-circle), so your 6.50 Euro all-day ticket is good for this location. Get off at Prisenhof, which is about 500 ft prior to the Delt Railway Station. Compass-wise to position yourself....everything of significance is mostly east of your drop-off point, or along Phonix Street. The ONLY thing west of the street worth checking out is the Wilhelminapark (maybe a 7-min walk straight southwest). Beyond that....stay on the east side of the tracks.
3. Two minutes walking from the drop-off, going east...is the Stedelijik Museum....which is the William of Orange Museum. If you do your reading, this is the Dutch guy who makes everything the way it is today.
4. If you stick along the two canals running north and south....the bulk of the old city can be seen and you won't get lost.
5. All total along the old city.....there's probably fifty pubs or beer-gardens. Make good use of them.
6. The place on a hot day is the Beesten Market Square, with at least a dozen pubs around the square and completely covered with trees and shade. Fantastic ribs joint on the south end of the square and worth late afternoon dinner.
7. At the end of the old city area is a 'harbor' of sorts. If you did go past that point (it's called Zuidkolk), there are two important features of town. One is the major university (8-min walk) and the Royal Deft (the pottery shop).
8. Walking this town in the winter months would be harsh and ill-advised. This is the kind of city you ought to visit from April to September.
9. There is a fair amount of construction going on in town, be aware of that.
10. There are at least forty tourist-related restaurants in town. It doesn't mean they are all four-star or such
1. If you visit Den Haag for a few days, I'd advise to use one whole day for Deflt (35 min tram-ride) from Haag.
2. Skip using a car. Take tram number 1 from Den Haag (it's on the interior of the Haag-circle), so your 6.50 Euro all-day ticket is good for this location. Get off at Prisenhof, which is about 500 ft prior to the Delt Railway Station. Compass-wise to position yourself....everything of significance is mostly east of your drop-off point, or along Phonix Street. The ONLY thing west of the street worth checking out is the Wilhelminapark (maybe a 7-min walk straight southwest). Beyond that....stay on the east side of the tracks.
3. Two minutes walking from the drop-off, going east...is the Stedelijik Museum....which is the William of Orange Museum. If you do your reading, this is the Dutch guy who makes everything the way it is today.
4. If you stick along the two canals running north and south....the bulk of the old city can be seen and you won't get lost.
5. All total along the old city.....there's probably fifty pubs or beer-gardens. Make good use of them.
6. The place on a hot day is the Beesten Market Square, with at least a dozen pubs around the square and completely covered with trees and shade. Fantastic ribs joint on the south end of the square and worth late afternoon dinner.
7. At the end of the old city area is a 'harbor' of sorts. If you did go past that point (it's called Zuidkolk), there are two important features of town. One is the major university (8-min walk) and the Royal Deft (the pottery shop).
8. Walking this town in the winter months would be harsh and ill-advised. This is the kind of city you ought to visit from April to September.
9. There is a fair amount of construction going on in town, be aware of that.
10. There are at least forty tourist-related restaurants in town. It doesn't mean they are all four-star or such
Salary Story
Typically in a German election campaign, there's some top ten areas where people want the political figures to talk about or hype. 2017 is an odd year where there are certain topics that none of the political talk much about (immigration and diesel), and odd topics which do get hyped but folks don't care much.
Yesterday, for some campaign stop, the SPD's Martin Schulz hyped the terrible woes of the German soccer league and thinks that it can be solved by legislation within the Bundestag to control player's salaries.
If you observe the business from the distance....over the past decade, there's been a gradual escalation of player salaries....but it's largely something occurring across all of Europe. Soccer clubs have found various ways to improve the profit margin of their organizations....using product sales, TV contracts, and larger stadiums to make money.
FC Bayern from Munich....has probably five world-class players on the team and they are pretty much locked in for the coming decade to finish somewhere in the top three slots of the league every single year. Their salary structure? Outrageous. But they get full stadiums and sell tons of t-shirts and fan-gear.
So you gaze back at Schulz's idea and wonder how in the world this would work? Just by picking one single sport....you'd create a guaranteed court episode where the law would either be struck down or you'd have to have pay-limits across all of society.
If you were a big-name soccer player.....why would you want to play in Germany, with a limit on salary? If a law like this went into effect.....players would ask to be transferred and prefer to play outside of Germany.
Finally, you come to the real issue here. If there was a topic list of the top ten or top one-hundred issues facing Germans, this problem doesn't appear. Maybe somewhere between 900 and 1,500....this problem might pop up. Oddly, dumping daylight-savings time would actually make it into the top twenty issues and easily find 90-percent of the nation favoring a dump of the concept. This is another topic which never gets discussed by political figures.
Yesterday, for some campaign stop, the SPD's Martin Schulz hyped the terrible woes of the German soccer league and thinks that it can be solved by legislation within the Bundestag to control player's salaries.
If you observe the business from the distance....over the past decade, there's been a gradual escalation of player salaries....but it's largely something occurring across all of Europe. Soccer clubs have found various ways to improve the profit margin of their organizations....using product sales, TV contracts, and larger stadiums to make money.
FC Bayern from Munich....has probably five world-class players on the team and they are pretty much locked in for the coming decade to finish somewhere in the top three slots of the league every single year. Their salary structure? Outrageous. But they get full stadiums and sell tons of t-shirts and fan-gear.
So you gaze back at Schulz's idea and wonder how in the world this would work? Just by picking one single sport....you'd create a guaranteed court episode where the law would either be struck down or you'd have to have pay-limits across all of society.
If you were a big-name soccer player.....why would you want to play in Germany, with a limit on salary? If a law like this went into effect.....players would ask to be transferred and prefer to play outside of Germany.
Finally, you come to the real issue here. If there was a topic list of the top ten or top one-hundred issues facing Germans, this problem doesn't appear. Maybe somewhere between 900 and 1,500....this problem might pop up. Oddly, dumping daylight-savings time would actually make it into the top twenty issues and easily find 90-percent of the nation favoring a dump of the concept. This is another topic which never gets discussed by political figures.
Sunday, August 27, 2017
The Smuggler Alternate Job Story
At some point yesterday, while on the campaign trail....Chancellor Merkel was asked about this Mediterranean migrant episode, and how Germany can halt the smuggler business.
It's hard to say if this was rehearsed or thought through much....but she leads the journalist into this commentary that Germany needs to entertain the idea of finding a new job or a new career in life, with an alternate chance in life for the smuggler crowd. In simple terms....she wants to find a new job to keep the guy busy and less likely to smuggler humans.
I sat there for a while and have lingered over this short discussion item. Personally, I think got the idea from intellectual idealist at some Berlin dinner-party, and it just stuck in her mind.
You can do the math....typically a guy shows up on the Libyan coast and seeks out the 'right-people'....then lays out $1,000 (more or less) to be taken by some boat to the 12-mile point...dumped into a 100-man raft, and await the marvelous rescue group from Germany to pick them up at the right time and coordinates.
Hundred folks....$100,000 made off one single day of work....a Chinese-made raft (probably in the range of $2,000 new).....fuel for the boat. The smuggler team ought to walk clear by sundown with $90,000 minimum in their pocket. Figure maybe five guys to make this work....if they split the money....they each walk away with roughly $18k each.
It's not clear to me if the intellectual idiots or Chancellor Merkel really grasp that kind of capital on the streets of Libya. Even if you just did this once a month for a year....you'd clear enough to retire for the rest of your life. What alternate job or career could you offer a guy in this position....that would pay at this level? If you look at the resume of these guys....other than fishing or selling apples on the street....other than flipping burgers, I don't see any future job potential.
All of this thinking and intellectualism skips the guys sitting in hundreds of African communities who figure that flipping burgers in Germany....is a heck of a lot better lifestyle than remaining in Africa.
I don't really blame Chancellor Merkel for the idea...she simply got it at some party and felt it was a swell idea. But you really have to ask yourself.....if a guy is clearing near $20,000 a month in some third-world country....what the heck kind of job enticement can you offer the guy to stay on the straight and honest path?
It's hard to say if this was rehearsed or thought through much....but she leads the journalist into this commentary that Germany needs to entertain the idea of finding a new job or a new career in life, with an alternate chance in life for the smuggler crowd. In simple terms....she wants to find a new job to keep the guy busy and less likely to smuggler humans.
I sat there for a while and have lingered over this short discussion item. Personally, I think got the idea from intellectual idealist at some Berlin dinner-party, and it just stuck in her mind.
You can do the math....typically a guy shows up on the Libyan coast and seeks out the 'right-people'....then lays out $1,000 (more or less) to be taken by some boat to the 12-mile point...dumped into a 100-man raft, and await the marvelous rescue group from Germany to pick them up at the right time and coordinates.
Hundred folks....$100,000 made off one single day of work....a Chinese-made raft (probably in the range of $2,000 new).....fuel for the boat. The smuggler team ought to walk clear by sundown with $90,000 minimum in their pocket. Figure maybe five guys to make this work....if they split the money....they each walk away with roughly $18k each.
It's not clear to me if the intellectual idiots or Chancellor Merkel really grasp that kind of capital on the streets of Libya. Even if you just did this once a month for a year....you'd clear enough to retire for the rest of your life. What alternate job or career could you offer a guy in this position....that would pay at this level? If you look at the resume of these guys....other than fishing or selling apples on the street....other than flipping burgers, I don't see any future job potential.
All of this thinking and intellectualism skips the guys sitting in hundreds of African communities who figure that flipping burgers in Germany....is a heck of a lot better lifestyle than remaining in Africa.
I don't really blame Chancellor Merkel for the idea...she simply got it at some party and felt it was a swell idea. But you really have to ask yourself.....if a guy is clearing near $20,000 a month in some third-world country....what the heck kind of job enticement can you offer the guy to stay on the straight and honest path?
Saturday, August 26, 2017
Election Letter
My wife (German) received her election-notification letter yesterday.
Anyone registered to live in the village....being a German and over 18 years old....got the letter.
It's a simple one-page sheet, which notes the date (24 September), the time (8AM to 6PM), the location, and notes that you need to bring your national ID card along.
Folks attempting to just show up....claiming to be unregistered? It just won't happen. You have to note yourself as you move each time....where you live. It's a two-minute act and generally required within four weeks of arriving in a village or city.
I often admire the German system because there's at least twenty different ways which they force the public to accept rules and standardization....which lead to a trustworthy election. When the village says that 2,881 people voted...it's pretty reliable that all were legit votes and all were German citizens....without any double-voting problems.
As for how this election will go? Most will say it's an odd election because there are no charged-up topics or huffed-up political talk. Merkel expects to easily win....probably with 38-percent of the vote (between the CDU and CSU). The only real chatter is how the coalition will be formed to lead the government for the next four years.
Anyone registered to live in the village....being a German and over 18 years old....got the letter.
It's a simple one-page sheet, which notes the date (24 September), the time (8AM to 6PM), the location, and notes that you need to bring your national ID card along.
Folks attempting to just show up....claiming to be unregistered? It just won't happen. You have to note yourself as you move each time....where you live. It's a two-minute act and generally required within four weeks of arriving in a village or city.
I often admire the German system because there's at least twenty different ways which they force the public to accept rules and standardization....which lead to a trustworthy election. When the village says that 2,881 people voted...it's pretty reliable that all were legit votes and all were German citizens....without any double-voting problems.
As for how this election will go? Most will say it's an odd election because there are no charged-up topics or huffed-up political talk. Merkel expects to easily win....probably with 38-percent of the vote (between the CDU and CSU). The only real chatter is how the coalition will be formed to lead the government for the next four years.
Example of German Ingenuity
The house I live in....was built by my German father-in-law (having passed on 15 years ago). The guys craft or skill? Roofer. In the mid-1960s....he built the entire house over a three-year period, with bits and pieces of help by associates he knew. Most everything about the house was simple in nature and the only thing that you could say thirty years later in a negative fashion was the electrical wiring situation was haphazard. No garage, no bar-b-q pit, no landscaping beyond a tree or two over the decade after construction.
Across the way, about 300 feet is the house of the father-in-law's brother. He was a carpenter (of sorts).
This house is entirely opposite of this house.
You walk up and here is a great two-car garage with a oil pit. A stairway by the side of the garage leads to a patio area (covered and enclosed) where you could set up a picnic table for a dozen people. Two storage rooms under the garage store just about everything you'd desire. And all of this leads to a 40 ft by 40 ft back yard....nicely landscaped with a big bar-b-q pit.
Back up by the house? Here is a workman's room that every guy would dream of....big enough but small enough.
Then you come to the house. A full-basement. A house with three floors but each floor fairly small. There's enough room for kitchen....living room-dining room combo....and one bedroom. Then you have two baths (yes, two full baths).
The second floor....same thing....one bedroom....two baths.
The top? It's a mini-bedroom area, with one bath. The basement, with one bath.
So you have a house with six baths? And just three total bedrooms? Yes. The guy had three kids over the years and simply kept adding an extra bathroom here and there. Oh, and there's even a WC out in this workman's room by the house.....so seven total bathrooms.
The ability to sell the house? Well.....yeah, this is a future problem. Because of the structure of the house, it's almost unsellable. The garage, workman's room, and backyard? Everything you'd ever desire.
It's a workman's house....with nothing really designed or fitted to some long-term plan. In some ways, the German ingenuity got carried away, and made something of a 'Frankenstein' house.
Across the way, about 300 feet is the house of the father-in-law's brother. He was a carpenter (of sorts).
This house is entirely opposite of this house.
You walk up and here is a great two-car garage with a oil pit. A stairway by the side of the garage leads to a patio area (covered and enclosed) where you could set up a picnic table for a dozen people. Two storage rooms under the garage store just about everything you'd desire. And all of this leads to a 40 ft by 40 ft back yard....nicely landscaped with a big bar-b-q pit.
Back up by the house? Here is a workman's room that every guy would dream of....big enough but small enough.
Then you come to the house. A full-basement. A house with three floors but each floor fairly small. There's enough room for kitchen....living room-dining room combo....and one bedroom. Then you have two baths (yes, two full baths).
The second floor....same thing....one bedroom....two baths.
The top? It's a mini-bedroom area, with one bath. The basement, with one bath.
So you have a house with six baths? And just three total bedrooms? Yes. The guy had three kids over the years and simply kept adding an extra bathroom here and there. Oh, and there's even a WC out in this workman's room by the house.....so seven total bathrooms.
The ability to sell the house? Well.....yeah, this is a future problem. Because of the structure of the house, it's almost unsellable. The garage, workman's room, and backyard? Everything you'd ever desire.
It's a workman's house....with nothing really designed or fitted to some long-term plan. In some ways, the German ingenuity got carried away, and made something of a 'Frankenstein' house.
The Next Migrant Trail
For about three months, it's been hyped at least once a week on German news of the rescued Mediterranean refugees....who've been brought into Italy....now facing the reality that Italy is not the place that they want to remain. So the story typically goes to an interview where two or three African guys explain how they had miserable lives in the homeland and this 'escape' is the only future for them. Then the dismal layout of the future in Italy is discussed. The Italians aren't as pro-migrant or pro-immigrant as the German (yes, amazingly so). There'll be some brief mention of the EU attempt to force EU member-states to accept individuals in this 'stuck-in-Italy' situation and how it's going nowhere. And then they will lay out this attempt by some individuals to leave Italy and head north (obviously to Germany).
The Italians, Swiss and Austrians have put up various checkpoints now at the border, and trucks are routinely checked now. In the past couple of weeks....more intense railway inspections have occurred and refugees/migrants are attempting to attach themselves underneath railway freight cars.....to make it across the border. From border to border....reaching Germany from Italy....the least amount of mileage is 90 km (straight-line).
Walking paths? This is a curious thing. There's maybe six to eight valleys along the northern region of Italy that you could find appropriate foot-paths and walk the distance. You can figure 120 to 140 km....depending on which path you'd choose. Some of the paths go up to 2,700 meters (8,800 ft roughly). Walking time? A healthy guy....good weather...some pauses...maybe three days.
Border folks checking the walking paths? I would imagine hour-by-hour reviews are taking place. A fair number of Germans would take this path in the summer period, and stop in small villages along the way to sip a beer and enjoy the Alpine scenery.
Trying to walk this....off-the-trail? All you need is one bad weather front to set in, and you'd be in the wrong place for chances of survival. My guess is that people will reach some point of desperation and attempt this over the next year.
My suspicion is that some discovery of a dozen migrants frozen dead on some Alpine hillside this winter will get everyone hyped up that they need to save migrants in some fashion. The German news media will tell the story and entice some group of political folks to craft another agenda of sorts. You can shake your head over how this all has developed but these are the consequences of society in 2017.
The Italians, Swiss and Austrians have put up various checkpoints now at the border, and trucks are routinely checked now. In the past couple of weeks....more intense railway inspections have occurred and refugees/migrants are attempting to attach themselves underneath railway freight cars.....to make it across the border. From border to border....reaching Germany from Italy....the least amount of mileage is 90 km (straight-line).
Walking paths? This is a curious thing. There's maybe six to eight valleys along the northern region of Italy that you could find appropriate foot-paths and walk the distance. You can figure 120 to 140 km....depending on which path you'd choose. Some of the paths go up to 2,700 meters (8,800 ft roughly). Walking time? A healthy guy....good weather...some pauses...maybe three days.
Border folks checking the walking paths? I would imagine hour-by-hour reviews are taking place. A fair number of Germans would take this path in the summer period, and stop in small villages along the way to sip a beer and enjoy the Alpine scenery.
Trying to walk this....off-the-trail? All you need is one bad weather front to set in, and you'd be in the wrong place for chances of survival. My guess is that people will reach some point of desperation and attempt this over the next year.
My suspicion is that some discovery of a dozen migrants frozen dead on some Alpine hillside this winter will get everyone hyped up that they need to save migrants in some fashion. The German news media will tell the story and entice some group of political folks to craft another agenda of sorts. You can shake your head over how this all has developed but these are the consequences of society in 2017.
Friday, August 25, 2017
Trump and Stern
Naturally, they've picked up on neo-Nazi stuff in the US.
Merkel? She's on a Turkish daily newspaper in a Nazi situation from a few weeks ago, and the French have done dozens of cartoons on Merkel in humor magazines.
The Socialism Curtain: Pulled
Over the past year, I've sat and watched probably over a hundred clips of young men and women from US university situations....talk exclusively on the greatness of socialism, the core of Bernie-politics, anti-capitalism, and some new revolution to fix the ailments of America.
Most of what I note or essay upon on Schnitzel Republic will be themes from Germany or Europe....which an American needs to grasp or relate to....but in a different understanding. So, I'll take up the topic of socialism via the German-style and make this bit-size chunks.
1. Whether believable or not....the German socialism angle (it'll even shock a German)....is basically built upon a platform that's about eighty-percent capitalism.....twenty-percent socialism. I know you'd like to think it's one-hundred-percent socialism....but no, that's just not it.
2. The German socialism path is that there are various free 'gifts' which the country or culture are going to provide to folks. Every single one of these free 'gifts' comes at a cost factor. If you wanted safe water in every town.....you need the infrastructure to drill for the water....siphon it to some water-tower or reservoir....ensure it's pure nature....and deliver it. All of those components cost money.
3. To pay for the free 'gifts', you tax companies that produce things. For example....BMW makes fine cars and sells them to franchise units. For all the profits that BMW generates....they pay taxation into a national bucket. The cars sold to the franchise? They will sell them and make a profit, and a chunk of that is taxed. The guy who bought the BMW? He's going to pay a sales tax (you can figure 19-percent). The employee who worked 160 hours this month for BMW and crafted such a fine car? He'll pay an income tax for the rate of pay. The electricity that BMW used at the plant? That'll have some kind of tax built into it. You can figure that roughly one-third of the total cost of a BMW....minimum....is shifted through various filters and taxes go to fund the free 'gifts'. If BMW didn't manufacture such fine cars? That tax revenue base wouldn't exist, and the free 'gifts' would be a lot smaller.
4. The railway and bus system, that offers decent service for a reasonable price? That's a free'gift' situation as well. That required more companies....like Opel, Mercedes, Porsche, and McDonalds to help fund.
5. The university system with almost free tuition? Well, that has two elements to it. Yes, the free 'gift' deal is one part of the situation.....the other is a meaningful limit. You can go and talk to the Mainz University folks and apply....which they will evaluate your background, capability and past demonstration....either accepting you or denying you. They have a revenue bucket of money which can be spent to run the university. To suggest that 10,000 extra people could show up tomorrow? No.....it's not designed to work that way.
6. Jobs for everyone. Well, if the 1,464 companies in one metropolitan German city have a total of 188,082 jobs....with no new requirements for work.....the city can't go out and just invent jobs out of thin air. The city could go and purchase 300 acres of property and buy an industrial park with sixteen properties, and release them for almost nothing or rent them out cheaply. So the idea of 3,000 new people showing up next year in town....with a 8-percent unemployment rate already....would be illogical and fail to help a guy find a job.
7. Healthcare. There's a set monthly percentage from the worker, and the boss. That goes into a pot, and healthcare insurance companies offer differing packages to entice the worker to select them for the deal. All of this works only because of absolute control over salary structure for doctors, nurses, and profit-limits for hospitals. If your doctor of twenty years is unhappy with the salary structure....he can go private, or leave the country (which German doctors tend to do). If your hope is for a enriched healthcare landscape, with premium doctors and hospitals....well, this is not the place for you.
8. Great pensions. German socialism delivers simple basic pensions. The more you make over forty-odd years....the more you receive at age 67 (yeah, they do keep talking about bringing some of this to 70 years old). Oh, they do generally start most kids at work by age 15....in the apprentice program, and that figures into this pension requirement deal as well. The guys who have great retirement lifestyles? They are the typically the ones with college degrees....making higher pay....or the guys who made extra and put into some investment account, which capitalism allows to occur and flourish.
9. Vacations. All these great vacation periods that Germans brag about from their socialism deal? Well....they get by their mid-30s on.....around five to six weeks a year. It's mostly because their company makes something, which has value, sells well....and the profits figure into the vacation plan for the company. If they couldn't make such items.....they'd likely only have two weeks of vacation. The trips to Turkey and Greece? Well....capitalism helps travel companies form these trips, sell them, arrange for the hotels to be cheaper, serving you buffet dinners for a great price, and ensure safe airlines pick you up on schedule and deliver yo there.
10. All of these fabulous parks and concert halls? Well, capitalism allows a city to have money in their budget....which they fund a marvelous concert hall to built for 288-million. Then when in phase one of the concert hall construction....they discover screw-ups and need another 45-million? Capitalism delivers tax revenue and the city makes very wise decision to spend the extra money on the screw-up....rather than fix the city pool this year, or replace the library as scheduled. Then when in phase two of the concert hall construction.....you find more problems and need another 180-million....you repeat with more capitalism and socialism. Then you find another issue or two, and need another 350-million to wrap up the original concert hall, thanks to capitalism and socialism....you deliver the concert hall (note, yeah, that is kinda how the Hamburg Opera Hall came to be).
I could chat on radio and TV via the socialism situation in Germany as well, but I think you get the picture. You only have all these free 'gifts'....because you built a lot of fine stuff that people wanted, and you taxed the heck out of folks to make the whole gift system work.
Most of what I note or essay upon on Schnitzel Republic will be themes from Germany or Europe....which an American needs to grasp or relate to....but in a different understanding. So, I'll take up the topic of socialism via the German-style and make this bit-size chunks.
1. Whether believable or not....the German socialism angle (it'll even shock a German)....is basically built upon a platform that's about eighty-percent capitalism.....twenty-percent socialism. I know you'd like to think it's one-hundred-percent socialism....but no, that's just not it.
2. The German socialism path is that there are various free 'gifts' which the country or culture are going to provide to folks. Every single one of these free 'gifts' comes at a cost factor. If you wanted safe water in every town.....you need the infrastructure to drill for the water....siphon it to some water-tower or reservoir....ensure it's pure nature....and deliver it. All of those components cost money.
3. To pay for the free 'gifts', you tax companies that produce things. For example....BMW makes fine cars and sells them to franchise units. For all the profits that BMW generates....they pay taxation into a national bucket. The cars sold to the franchise? They will sell them and make a profit, and a chunk of that is taxed. The guy who bought the BMW? He's going to pay a sales tax (you can figure 19-percent). The employee who worked 160 hours this month for BMW and crafted such a fine car? He'll pay an income tax for the rate of pay. The electricity that BMW used at the plant? That'll have some kind of tax built into it. You can figure that roughly one-third of the total cost of a BMW....minimum....is shifted through various filters and taxes go to fund the free 'gifts'. If BMW didn't manufacture such fine cars? That tax revenue base wouldn't exist, and the free 'gifts' would be a lot smaller.
4. The railway and bus system, that offers decent service for a reasonable price? That's a free'gift' situation as well. That required more companies....like Opel, Mercedes, Porsche, and McDonalds to help fund.
5. The university system with almost free tuition? Well, that has two elements to it. Yes, the free 'gift' deal is one part of the situation.....the other is a meaningful limit. You can go and talk to the Mainz University folks and apply....which they will evaluate your background, capability and past demonstration....either accepting you or denying you. They have a revenue bucket of money which can be spent to run the university. To suggest that 10,000 extra people could show up tomorrow? No.....it's not designed to work that way.
6. Jobs for everyone. Well, if the 1,464 companies in one metropolitan German city have a total of 188,082 jobs....with no new requirements for work.....the city can't go out and just invent jobs out of thin air. The city could go and purchase 300 acres of property and buy an industrial park with sixteen properties, and release them for almost nothing or rent them out cheaply. So the idea of 3,000 new people showing up next year in town....with a 8-percent unemployment rate already....would be illogical and fail to help a guy find a job.
7. Healthcare. There's a set monthly percentage from the worker, and the boss. That goes into a pot, and healthcare insurance companies offer differing packages to entice the worker to select them for the deal. All of this works only because of absolute control over salary structure for doctors, nurses, and profit-limits for hospitals. If your doctor of twenty years is unhappy with the salary structure....he can go private, or leave the country (which German doctors tend to do). If your hope is for a enriched healthcare landscape, with premium doctors and hospitals....well, this is not the place for you.
8. Great pensions. German socialism delivers simple basic pensions. The more you make over forty-odd years....the more you receive at age 67 (yeah, they do keep talking about bringing some of this to 70 years old). Oh, they do generally start most kids at work by age 15....in the apprentice program, and that figures into this pension requirement deal as well. The guys who have great retirement lifestyles? They are the typically the ones with college degrees....making higher pay....or the guys who made extra and put into some investment account, which capitalism allows to occur and flourish.
9. Vacations. All these great vacation periods that Germans brag about from their socialism deal? Well....they get by their mid-30s on.....around five to six weeks a year. It's mostly because their company makes something, which has value, sells well....and the profits figure into the vacation plan for the company. If they couldn't make such items.....they'd likely only have two weeks of vacation. The trips to Turkey and Greece? Well....capitalism helps travel companies form these trips, sell them, arrange for the hotels to be cheaper, serving you buffet dinners for a great price, and ensure safe airlines pick you up on schedule and deliver yo there.
10. All of these fabulous parks and concert halls? Well, capitalism allows a city to have money in their budget....which they fund a marvelous concert hall to built for 288-million. Then when in phase one of the concert hall construction....they discover screw-ups and need another 45-million? Capitalism delivers tax revenue and the city makes very wise decision to spend the extra money on the screw-up....rather than fix the city pool this year, or replace the library as scheduled. Then when in phase two of the concert hall construction.....you find more problems and need another 180-million....you repeat with more capitalism and socialism. Then you find another issue or two, and need another 350-million to wrap up the original concert hall, thanks to capitalism and socialism....you deliver the concert hall (note, yeah, that is kinda how the Hamburg Opera Hall came to be).
I could chat on radio and TV via the socialism situation in Germany as well, but I think you get the picture. You only have all these free 'gifts'....because you built a lot of fine stuff that people wanted, and you taxed the heck out of folks to make the whole gift system work.
Diesel Used Cars Stalled
For weeks, this has been a German topic on my mind and today....Focus put up a business story over the topic.....the used diesel vehicles sitting on German used-car lots.
What is generally said is that roughly three-quarters of the German car dealerships are stuck with German diesel vehicles which have to be decreased in value....to 'dump' off the lot. No one says the lost amount, but one might take a guess that most all dealers are seeing zero profit on these used vehicles. Acceptance of diesel vehicles in the future? If I were a dealer.....it'd be a no-go for me....zero diesels on the lot.
What is generally said now is that while the new Euro 6 diesel cars will pass on the numbers game....you start running into issues with all prior diesel standards.
Dealers suggest that the Euro 4 standard (manufactured at seven years ago)....have lost enough value that they are at the bottom level of value anyway.
An Audi A4 diesel from 2004, with 218k km...will be shown around at 5,200 Euro. The odds are that this guy will have to settle for 4,000 Euro in order to 'dump' it.
An Audi A4 convertible from 2003 with 186 km...will be shown at 5,800 Euro. The odds are that this owner will have to settle for 4,500 Euro to move it on.
But dealers are chatting about the crappy resell value now upon Euro 5 standard diesel cars. The numbers around all of Germany indicate roughly 300,000 cars sitting on dealer lots. The bulk value for the nation? Near five billion Euro. Because of the unclear future path for these cars....no one is showing up to talk over a trade for these....so they sit.
The dealers? It's a crappy position. They need some solid position by the government to be put out there and the individual bans being discussed by cities across Germany to be halted. They need judges to allow this to stay in place. If they don't go this direction? Other than trying to move the cars into other countries and try to market them there....there is no future for handling diesel car trades.
It is a shocking development to consider that none of this existed in the spring of 2016, and this is how far we've come in eighteen months. An entire industry of Germany sitting on five billion Euro worth of goods that can't really be moved or traded....just sitting there in hopes that some idiot political figure might come and rescue them. It's a sad epic story in the making.
What is generally said is that roughly three-quarters of the German car dealerships are stuck with German diesel vehicles which have to be decreased in value....to 'dump' off the lot. No one says the lost amount, but one might take a guess that most all dealers are seeing zero profit on these used vehicles. Acceptance of diesel vehicles in the future? If I were a dealer.....it'd be a no-go for me....zero diesels on the lot.
What is generally said now is that while the new Euro 6 diesel cars will pass on the numbers game....you start running into issues with all prior diesel standards.
Dealers suggest that the Euro 4 standard (manufactured at seven years ago)....have lost enough value that they are at the bottom level of value anyway.
An Audi A4 diesel from 2004, with 218k km...will be shown around at 5,200 Euro. The odds are that this guy will have to settle for 4,000 Euro in order to 'dump' it.
An Audi A4 convertible from 2003 with 186 km...will be shown at 5,800 Euro. The odds are that this owner will have to settle for 4,500 Euro to move it on.
But dealers are chatting about the crappy resell value now upon Euro 5 standard diesel cars. The numbers around all of Germany indicate roughly 300,000 cars sitting on dealer lots. The bulk value for the nation? Near five billion Euro. Because of the unclear future path for these cars....no one is showing up to talk over a trade for these....so they sit.
The dealers? It's a crappy position. They need some solid position by the government to be put out there and the individual bans being discussed by cities across Germany to be halted. They need judges to allow this to stay in place. If they don't go this direction? Other than trying to move the cars into other countries and try to market them there....there is no future for handling diesel car trades.
It is a shocking development to consider that none of this existed in the spring of 2016, and this is how far we've come in eighteen months. An entire industry of Germany sitting on five billion Euro worth of goods that can't really be moved or traded....just sitting there in hopes that some idiot political figure might come and rescue them. It's a sad epic story in the making.
German News, Friday
Rome cops shut down migrant house. (Focus article). Cops arrived at warehouse type situation in Rome yesterday and did a forceful removal of roughly 800 migrants who'd been squatting on the property for a while. The majority of the group....from Ethiopia and Eritrea...had been around for a while. Some days....some months. It's a curious story because a judge's order had been sitting there for almost two years with no action taken by city officials.
Metropolitan cities in Germany on push-back. (Focus article). There are probably a thousand lessons learned on the migration crisis in Germany and we've finally reached one of the more interesting ones. Cities are talking to the German federal government and urging them to develop a different method of handling all future migrants and immigrants coming into Germany. The cities say that on initial arrival....no one should be destined for any metropolitan city situation. The period to be held at the initial facilities? Long enough to complete all asylum procedures and ensure identification. The emphasis here is that most of the cities are reaching some point on affordable housing, child-care, and school facilities. Acceptance by the federal government? Unknown. It would have to mean dedicated facilities, and likely anger future arrivals as they spend several months at some rural area.
Three Hessen cities test on the potential diesel driving ban. (HR Article). Three major Hessen cities (Frankfurt, Wiesbaden and Darmstadt) will go through a series of tests and drills to see how a diesel car ban would be made to work. As far as I know....no one has gone to this degree of knowledge development. So they are building computer simulations with traffic data and trying to figure out how far this would go. One idea of converting all of Frankfurt's taxi operation to electric cars....resulted in a .2-percent reduction in nitrogen oxide rates....which makes that idea mostly worthless. The odd topic missing from all of this is where exactly they expect the diesel drivers to park their cars, and how the local transport system would enlarge itself to cover the massive growth.
Election polling. (ARD article). Election period is winding down and it's a brief three weeks left to go. Numbers? ARD did nation-wide polling. The CDU rests at 38-percent, with the SPD sliding down to 22-percent (dismal fall from January with roughly 33-percent). The Linke Party rests at 9-percent and Greens at 8-percent. The FDP at 8-percent. Finally....the AfD Party has risen two points and sits at the 10-percent level. No doubt that Merkel wins....but the coalition-building is now questionable with either the FDP or Greens....it simply won't be enough votes to secure 50-percent. So, we are back to the CDU-CSU-SPD team once again....something that most all Germans are against.
Metropolitan cities in Germany on push-back. (Focus article). There are probably a thousand lessons learned on the migration crisis in Germany and we've finally reached one of the more interesting ones. Cities are talking to the German federal government and urging them to develop a different method of handling all future migrants and immigrants coming into Germany. The cities say that on initial arrival....no one should be destined for any metropolitan city situation. The period to be held at the initial facilities? Long enough to complete all asylum procedures and ensure identification. The emphasis here is that most of the cities are reaching some point on affordable housing, child-care, and school facilities. Acceptance by the federal government? Unknown. It would have to mean dedicated facilities, and likely anger future arrivals as they spend several months at some rural area.
Three Hessen cities test on the potential diesel driving ban. (HR Article). Three major Hessen cities (Frankfurt, Wiesbaden and Darmstadt) will go through a series of tests and drills to see how a diesel car ban would be made to work. As far as I know....no one has gone to this degree of knowledge development. So they are building computer simulations with traffic data and trying to figure out how far this would go. One idea of converting all of Frankfurt's taxi operation to electric cars....resulted in a .2-percent reduction in nitrogen oxide rates....which makes that idea mostly worthless. The odd topic missing from all of this is where exactly they expect the diesel drivers to park their cars, and how the local transport system would enlarge itself to cover the massive growth.
Election polling. (ARD article). Election period is winding down and it's a brief three weeks left to go. Numbers? ARD did nation-wide polling. The CDU rests at 38-percent, with the SPD sliding down to 22-percent (dismal fall from January with roughly 33-percent). The Linke Party rests at 9-percent and Greens at 8-percent. The FDP at 8-percent. Finally....the AfD Party has risen two points and sits at the 10-percent level. No doubt that Merkel wins....but the coalition-building is now questionable with either the FDP or Greens....it simply won't be enough votes to secure 50-percent. So, we are back to the CDU-CSU-SPD team once again....something that most all Germans are against.
Thursday, August 24, 2017
American Arms Hotel in Wiesbaden Update
I passed by the old American Arms Hotel today....down on Frankfurter Strasse....appears now to be completely emptied out and shut down. For roughly 18 months, it served as a transit-point for migrants and immigrants coming into the Wiesbaden region.
The current plan? Well....it'll be torn down....starting sometime in the late fall...the entire complex.
What will come up next is an apartment complex for students (220 units). I should note that this is a combo deal....with two-dozen-odd apartments for socially-disadvantaged and around seventy high-end apartments.
The draw for student housing? There's an effort underway to bring Fresenius University (private operation) back from Idstein, and locate them in the city-center of Wiesbaden. The program discussed? Several degree areas....but mass media and technology would be two of them.
One might suspect that the bulk of properties to be turned over....even the buildings at the Mainz-Kastel Army site....will eventually all be torn down.
The current plan? Well....it'll be torn down....starting sometime in the late fall...the entire complex.
What will come up next is an apartment complex for students (220 units). I should note that this is a combo deal....with two-dozen-odd apartments for socially-disadvantaged and around seventy high-end apartments.
The draw for student housing? There's an effort underway to bring Fresenius University (private operation) back from Idstein, and locate them in the city-center of Wiesbaden. The program discussed? Several degree areas....but mass media and technology would be two of them.
One might suspect that the bulk of properties to be turned over....even the buildings at the Mainz-Kastel Army site....will eventually all be torn down.
Germany and It's Fakes Problem
Shortly after 19 December 2016....the next little interesting twist to immigration and migration fell into play within Germany.
The Christmas Market episode in Berlin unfolded....with Anis Amri (a Tunisian).
It took the cops about three weeks to come forward and admit that Amri existed as 14 different people in Germany....collecting on Social money in various forms....in various states.
Yes, fourteen different IDs.
At the time....the attitude by the Germans was that this was simply not possible. Within a couple of weeks....they admitted that roughly 3,000 cases of fake ID were noted by the cops from all sixteen German states for 2016.
Focus wrote up this short but interesting report today.
If you go and ask for the data...from 2013 to present....there are around 2-million refugees, asylum seekers and immigrants listed as 'incoming'. The validity of the 2-million? What the authorities will say is that they've made this effort to use fingerprints to ensure it's correct. At some point six months ago, they came to admit that they thought they were completely done....then discovered a whole bunch of folks who never showed up to get fingerprinted.
What Focus discusses is a public TV effort to investigate the whole business. Counterfeit passport networks exist all across Europe now. For 500 Euro....you can buy a fake Syrian passport. They exist in Greece...Germany....and so on.
As one German criminal investigator noted....there could be millions with a false ID. He even noted that there are people out there with more than the 14 fake IDs that Amri was carrying around.
All this technology to catch onto this stuff? Out of the 5,500 offices in Germany that ought to have the equipment.....there are just 250 of them equipped. What the authorities will admit is that roughly forty-odd folks are caught monthly with the 250 systems that are working.
How many fakes are in the system? You could sit and guess but it's just a guess. Some guy could be registered in Munich, with some fake wife and fake kid....then registered again in Koln with just a fake kid....then registered by himself only in Saarbrucken. Other than checking the mail and keeping a bogus address in each state....there could be a forty-thousand guys pulling this off. And that only includes Germany itself....the same crowd could be in various other countries as well.
The Christmas Market episode in Berlin unfolded....with Anis Amri (a Tunisian).
It took the cops about three weeks to come forward and admit that Amri existed as 14 different people in Germany....collecting on Social money in various forms....in various states.
Yes, fourteen different IDs.
At the time....the attitude by the Germans was that this was simply not possible. Within a couple of weeks....they admitted that roughly 3,000 cases of fake ID were noted by the cops from all sixteen German states for 2016.
Focus wrote up this short but interesting report today.
If you go and ask for the data...from 2013 to present....there are around 2-million refugees, asylum seekers and immigrants listed as 'incoming'. The validity of the 2-million? What the authorities will say is that they've made this effort to use fingerprints to ensure it's correct. At some point six months ago, they came to admit that they thought they were completely done....then discovered a whole bunch of folks who never showed up to get fingerprinted.
What Focus discusses is a public TV effort to investigate the whole business. Counterfeit passport networks exist all across Europe now. For 500 Euro....you can buy a fake Syrian passport. They exist in Greece...Germany....and so on.
As one German criminal investigator noted....there could be millions with a false ID. He even noted that there are people out there with more than the 14 fake IDs that Amri was carrying around.
All this technology to catch onto this stuff? Out of the 5,500 offices in Germany that ought to have the equipment.....there are just 250 of them equipped. What the authorities will admit is that roughly forty-odd folks are caught monthly with the 250 systems that are working.
How many fakes are in the system? You could sit and guess but it's just a guess. Some guy could be registered in Munich, with some fake wife and fake kid....then registered again in Koln with just a fake kid....then registered by himself only in Saarbrucken. Other than checking the mail and keeping a bogus address in each state....there could be a forty-thousand guys pulling this off. And that only includes Germany itself....the same crowd could be in various other countries as well.
Haag Transport
If you ride the tram line or bus network....you have to card-in or card-out each time. Regular passengers all have a credit device with a chip. Tourists buy a one-day-only chip card.
So, in theory.....they can run a history on you twenty-four hours a day....over the past ten years (if data exists) and note where you entered or left their cars.
The second unusual thing that I came to notice was the Haag railway station. It was likely engineered by a kid-turned-engineer who was a lego expert.
The trams (light rail for the city only) run by the side of the building....dropping you off within twenty feet of the front-door. You walk in and here are is the ground level with the shops, grocery operations and burger stops. To the end is the bicycle parking lot (probably enough room for 20,000 easily), and the long-distance train lines. Above all of this...on the second floor....are the regional trains.
I stood and admired the way that this was all connected up and functioning.
Out front of the station...they've cornered off a 300 by 300 foot area for some indoor mall area coming in 2018.
I have to admit that they've made the city into a place where you really don't need a car. With a scooter or bike, and tram usage....you could survive easily without a car.
On the Topic of Scooters
One of the unique features of the area is the high volume usage of bicycles and scooters. It's to the extent that on any busy walk-way....like for example in this picture....a shopping district where zero cars area allowed.....you have to be watching for traffic.
You might also notice....no helmets. Throughout the city....no one says a word on safety.
After three days, I have to admit, I saw never a single accident or anyone hit.
The 80,000 Who Won't Vote
It rarely gets brought up in German culture and chat....but around 80,000 German citizens don't have the right to vote. They are over 18 years old, and are noted as citizens....without a criminal record. They are however, classified as disabled.
The way that German law reads....if you are guarded over or supervised (past the age of 18).....then you don't receive the right to vote...at least in national elections. In German state or city elections...then yes, you can vote.
Oddly, in the past decade....almost all of the political parties have said they want to do away with the law and allow the 80,000 to vote. Push to make that happen? It's simply discussed and no one really wants to make it a top-ten type issue.
The way that German law reads....if you are guarded over or supervised (past the age of 18).....then you don't receive the right to vote...at least in national elections. In German state or city elections...then yes, you can vote.
Oddly, in the past decade....almost all of the political parties have said they want to do away with the law and allow the 80,000 to vote. Push to make that happen? It's simply discussed and no one really wants to make it a top-ten type issue.
Elefantenrunde Story
At the conclusion of the 2005 German election....as evening led into live coverage and political chatter....there was what was referred to as the Elefantenrunde or the 'Elephant-round'. This was a moderator-run situation with the top party chiefs and discussing the outcome.
The CDU-CSU combo won (roughly 40-percent) against the SPD's 38.4-percent.
The general big topic for the Elefantenrunde crowd was the coalition. The FDP failed to get 5-percent and the idea of a Green or Linke coalition situation simply didn't exist.
So the discussion came to this partnership that would have to occur.....the CDU with the SPD. I sat there at the time....watching this live situation go, and over a fifteen minute period, you got the impression that the SPD's chief....Gerhard Schroder, was in some hyped-up mood and acting a bit dazed.
In today's news....the ZDF chief.....Nikolaus Bender....says he's been asked time and time again.....if Schroder was drunk.
There's roughly twenty minutes talk going on which Schroder seems to suggest that the only way a coalition will occur is that he is the Chancellor and the CDU occupies a secondary position behind the SPD....even though the SPD came in second.
It's a remarkable piece of live action, which ZDF said later that roughly 15-million Germans tuned in and watched the discussion group....roughly a quarter of the adult population.
My perception of Schroder from that evening? I always thought he was lit-up on something....maybe some good marijuana....maybe some other drug....but his behavior and attitude wasn't the typical type that you expected.
Days later, the SPD kinda told Schroder to 'retire' and move on....which he quickly did by taking a consultant job with a Russian oil company. Even today, there's not that many positive thoughts over Schroder and his Russian job deal, or his handling of that discussion on ZDF.
The CDU-CSU combo won (roughly 40-percent) against the SPD's 38.4-percent.
The general big topic for the Elefantenrunde crowd was the coalition. The FDP failed to get 5-percent and the idea of a Green or Linke coalition situation simply didn't exist.
So the discussion came to this partnership that would have to occur.....the CDU with the SPD. I sat there at the time....watching this live situation go, and over a fifteen minute period, you got the impression that the SPD's chief....Gerhard Schroder, was in some hyped-up mood and acting a bit dazed.
In today's news....the ZDF chief.....Nikolaus Bender....says he's been asked time and time again.....if Schroder was drunk.
There's roughly twenty minutes talk going on which Schroder seems to suggest that the only way a coalition will occur is that he is the Chancellor and the CDU occupies a secondary position behind the SPD....even though the SPD came in second.
It's a remarkable piece of live action, which ZDF said later that roughly 15-million Germans tuned in and watched the discussion group....roughly a quarter of the adult population.
My perception of Schroder from that evening? I always thought he was lit-up on something....maybe some good marijuana....maybe some other drug....but his behavior and attitude wasn't the typical type that you expected.
Days later, the SPD kinda told Schroder to 'retire' and move on....which he quickly did by taking a consultant job with a Russian oil company. Even today, there's not that many positive thoughts over Schroder and his Russian job deal, or his handling of that discussion on ZDF.
Wednesday, August 23, 2017
My Diesel Scenario for Germany
In the last day or two, there's been several news reports, and it's obvious that two different directions are being taken by the German government. The SPD has it's figure in the Environmental Ministry....Barbara Hendricks, who is bound and determined to remove diesel cars which are deemed a threat. And then there's the CSU head of the Transport Ministry, who is trying to give the car industry some exit plan.
So, I'm going to make this prediction.
Shortly after the the election is wrapped up and the coalition government is formed, everyone is going to be be shocked over the next big step of the Merkel-led government. Cash-for-diesel-junkers.
My prediction is that from the diesel variations....one through six....it will be determined that one to four (roughly anything made prior to 2009), will be offered two deals and an end-date for their vehicle.
My humble guess is that the end-date will be sometime by the end of 2018. At that point, all of these cars with version four of the diesel standard....will be deemed 'junk'.
The two deals? Deal one will be a 100-percent blue-book value on the car if you go and order an electric vehicle to replace it. Deal two will be a 75-percent blue-book value on the car if you go and purchase a gas-powered car.
The 100-percent deal will be an enticement seen to help jump-start the whole electric car idea, and I suspect in some ways....this is the ultimate goal for Hendricks and her Environmental Ministry. Let's be honest here. At the end of 2016, there were roughly 75,000 electric cars in Germany, and there's simply no real interest by the general public in this trend. It's still a decade from taking off, if you allow the market to drive the interest.
I drove to Den Haag this past week, and stopped at a autohof half-way there. In the corner of the lot was a major re-charging station, with a dozen units sitting there and half of the spaces had cars in the recharge stage. The folks were going to stop for an hour and have lunch.....so it made sense to use the time wisely and recharge.
Hostility over offering a blue-book value here? Oh yes.
The thing is that the government stood by the car companies and allowed all of this to reach this current stage. The government often brags about excess money which will be sitting there in 2019....with several billion Euro. Well, put the money to good use.
You also have to ask yourself....generally, what's the value of a five-to-ten year old car? I doubt if the amount for each vehicle goes above 8,000 Euro. In the case of some of these vehicles....being over twenty years old....there's virtually zero blue-book value and a thousand Euro might be the best deal to accept.
The number involved? One can only take a guess there....but it's probably in the five-million range.
So, I'm going to make this prediction.
Shortly after the the election is wrapped up and the coalition government is formed, everyone is going to be be shocked over the next big step of the Merkel-led government. Cash-for-diesel-junkers.
My prediction is that from the diesel variations....one through six....it will be determined that one to four (roughly anything made prior to 2009), will be offered two deals and an end-date for their vehicle.
My humble guess is that the end-date will be sometime by the end of 2018. At that point, all of these cars with version four of the diesel standard....will be deemed 'junk'.
The two deals? Deal one will be a 100-percent blue-book value on the car if you go and order an electric vehicle to replace it. Deal two will be a 75-percent blue-book value on the car if you go and purchase a gas-powered car.
The 100-percent deal will be an enticement seen to help jump-start the whole electric car idea, and I suspect in some ways....this is the ultimate goal for Hendricks and her Environmental Ministry. Let's be honest here. At the end of 2016, there were roughly 75,000 electric cars in Germany, and there's simply no real interest by the general public in this trend. It's still a decade from taking off, if you allow the market to drive the interest.
I drove to Den Haag this past week, and stopped at a autohof half-way there. In the corner of the lot was a major re-charging station, with a dozen units sitting there and half of the spaces had cars in the recharge stage. The folks were going to stop for an hour and have lunch.....so it made sense to use the time wisely and recharge.
Hostility over offering a blue-book value here? Oh yes.
The thing is that the government stood by the car companies and allowed all of this to reach this current stage. The government often brags about excess money which will be sitting there in 2019....with several billion Euro. Well, put the money to good use.
You also have to ask yourself....generally, what's the value of a five-to-ten year old car? I doubt if the amount for each vehicle goes above 8,000 Euro. In the case of some of these vehicles....being over twenty years old....there's virtually zero blue-book value and a thousand Euro might be the best deal to accept.
The number involved? One can only take a guess there....but it's probably in the five-million range.
More on the Spain Attack
There was an update to the Spanish terror attack from a week ago....which ARD covered this morning.
This religious instructor....the Imam Es Satty....who died in the house explosion while building his propane tank bombs, had a bit of history.
Back in the spring of 2015, Satty was on a deportation list. At some point, a Spanish judge got into the middle of this and halted the deportation....saying that the guy just didn't represent a danger to the public.
What drove the deportation order? Well, that's kinda interesting. The Imam had been in the middle of drug trafficking...having done four years in a prison. No one says much over what kind of drugs or the act in which he got caught.
As I suggested the other day.....this Spain attack is a five-star movie script. You would think that some religious authority would have dumped Satty out of his status as a Imam after the drug conviction, but there is no such authority. They allowed him right back into the system.
If the locals had known of Satty's past? I'm guessing that they would have questioned the wisdom of letting serve the public as some Imam.
This religious instructor....the Imam Es Satty....who died in the house explosion while building his propane tank bombs, had a bit of history.
Back in the spring of 2015, Satty was on a deportation list. At some point, a Spanish judge got into the middle of this and halted the deportation....saying that the guy just didn't represent a danger to the public.
What drove the deportation order? Well, that's kinda interesting. The Imam had been in the middle of drug trafficking...having done four years in a prison. No one says much over what kind of drugs or the act in which he got caught.
As I suggested the other day.....this Spain attack is a five-star movie script. You would think that some religious authority would have dumped Satty out of his status as a Imam after the drug conviction, but there is no such authority. They allowed him right back into the system.
If the locals had known of Satty's past? I'm guessing that they would have questioned the wisdom of letting serve the public as some Imam.
The Innovation of a Bench
I paused on one street to admire this 'bench'.
It's a simple bench....but built in the heavy-duty tradition, and fits perfectly in front of a coffee cafe. A handy wood craftsman could put this together in one afternoon.
Hamburg Harbor Fest Story
Every year, around the first week of May, there's a fest held in Hamburg to honor the harbor. You can call it a birthday party, or just a harbor-fest.
Over the last couple of years, there's been grumbling to occur.
Typically, you go and apply for a stand, and pay a fee. For this, you get a permit to operate and make money during this entire week. For some folks, it's a substantial amount of money to come in. The fee business? What is generally said...is that the fees for one single stand are fairly hefty but it's related to profits. You can go figure beer, sodas, brats, kebabs.....they all lead to some profit.
Well....the stand folks who've played by the rule and paid the hefty fees...are talking now....way head of the May 2018 fest. Nine months ahead of time. Their concern?
Illegal stands. These are stands which just pop up....with no permit, and operate for hours or days, with activity by the city to shut them down. In essence, black income. You'd think at the very least....the tax folks would be highly disturbed, but they haven't really shown any interest in the activity.
The accusation here? Well....a lot of these stands (no one will say all of them) are hooked to some left-wing political organization. So the accusation is that the city government is tolerating these stands and simply refusing to shut them down, when they don't have a permit.
Up until the G-20 Summit period, you could have continued this trend, but a fair number of Hamburg residents are now noticing things.
All of this would suggest that the city of Hamburg will have to show some strong-arm tactics and attempt to shut down some unregistered stands....thus triggering a confrontation in the midst of a harbor fest.
I sat and pondered over this whole thing. To operate a stand, you present paperwork that you are a legit charity, recognized local club, or a business operation....then present a sum of money for the size of the stall you intend to operate. It's a pretty basic situation. In this case, the illicit stand-operators apparently aren't operating as a legit club or charity, and probably don't have tax paperwork to cover their situation. The profits made? If you aren't a recognized club or charity....you pay regular taxes on income. For these illegal stands, the question is.....are they paying taxes? I would have some doubts.
One might think that if the city doesn't act this time around.....cleaning up the illegal stands, then the clubs and business operations will sue to get their money back.
Over the last couple of years, there's been grumbling to occur.
Typically, you go and apply for a stand, and pay a fee. For this, you get a permit to operate and make money during this entire week. For some folks, it's a substantial amount of money to come in. The fee business? What is generally said...is that the fees for one single stand are fairly hefty but it's related to profits. You can go figure beer, sodas, brats, kebabs.....they all lead to some profit.
Well....the stand folks who've played by the rule and paid the hefty fees...are talking now....way head of the May 2018 fest. Nine months ahead of time. Their concern?
Illegal stands. These are stands which just pop up....with no permit, and operate for hours or days, with activity by the city to shut them down. In essence, black income. You'd think at the very least....the tax folks would be highly disturbed, but they haven't really shown any interest in the activity.
The accusation here? Well....a lot of these stands (no one will say all of them) are hooked to some left-wing political organization. So the accusation is that the city government is tolerating these stands and simply refusing to shut them down, when they don't have a permit.
Up until the G-20 Summit period, you could have continued this trend, but a fair number of Hamburg residents are now noticing things.
All of this would suggest that the city of Hamburg will have to show some strong-arm tactics and attempt to shut down some unregistered stands....thus triggering a confrontation in the midst of a harbor fest.
I sat and pondered over this whole thing. To operate a stand, you present paperwork that you are a legit charity, recognized local club, or a business operation....then present a sum of money for the size of the stall you intend to operate. It's a pretty basic situation. In this case, the illicit stand-operators apparently aren't operating as a legit club or charity, and probably don't have tax paperwork to cover their situation. The profits made? If you aren't a recognized club or charity....you pay regular taxes on income. For these illegal stands, the question is.....are they paying taxes? I would have some doubts.
One might think that if the city doesn't act this time around.....cleaning up the illegal stands, then the clubs and business operations will sue to get their money back.
Election Poll
I noted in this mornings German news....another political poll.
This one comes a couple of days after the Barcelona attack, and might have influenced the public to some degree.
CDU: 38-percent
SPD: 24-percent
AfD: 9-percent
Linke Party: 9-percent
Green Party: 7-percent
FDP: 8-percent
For the CDU-CSU coalition strategy to work, either the Greens or FDP....need to top 9-percent....if you do all the numbers and figure the 50-percent-plus method of the math to work. Presently, I'd have doubts that either can get the 9-percent, or that the CDU-CSU dynamics can top 38-percent. This leads Germany back to the CDU-CSU-SPD gimmick for the next government....something that probably three-quarters of the nation would prefer not to happen.
This one comes a couple of days after the Barcelona attack, and might have influenced the public to some degree.
CDU: 38-percent
SPD: 24-percent
AfD: 9-percent
Linke Party: 9-percent
Green Party: 7-percent
FDP: 8-percent
For the CDU-CSU coalition strategy to work, either the Greens or FDP....need to top 9-percent....if you do all the numbers and figure the 50-percent-plus method of the math to work. Presently, I'd have doubts that either can get the 9-percent, or that the CDU-CSU dynamics can top 38-percent. This leads Germany back to the CDU-CSU-SPD gimmick for the next government....something that probably three-quarters of the nation would prefer not to happen.
Homeopathy Ending in Germany?
One of odd things you will discover about Germans....is that they have an odd acceptance of alternate medicine....or Homeopathy.
Focus brought up this topic today.
There's an effort underway by the medical establishment in Germany to end Homeopathy acceptance. What is generally pointed out....is that this is a unregulated part of health-care in Germany. In the eyes of some Germans (probably a quarter of the population by my guess)....are of the opinion that Homeopathy experts are the equivalent of a professional doctor.
What is pointed out and I've mentioned this on one or two occasions.....there just aren't any scientific reports to establish a scientific validity to Homeopathy. Part of the issue is that there are no reports to completely disqualify Homeopathy either.
As for the effort by these seventeen German experts to take down Homeopathy? If they get traction with the two public TV news people, and make it into a top ten-political topic situation.....they might be able to force regulation upon the profession. It might take five years to reach this level of change, but it's obvious that the medical profession thinks it's time to take on Homeopathy.
Focus brought up this topic today.
There's an effort underway by the medical establishment in Germany to end Homeopathy acceptance. What is generally pointed out....is that this is a unregulated part of health-care in Germany. In the eyes of some Germans (probably a quarter of the population by my guess)....are of the opinion that Homeopathy experts are the equivalent of a professional doctor.
What is pointed out and I've mentioned this on one or two occasions.....there just aren't any scientific reports to establish a scientific validity to Homeopathy. Part of the issue is that there are no reports to completely disqualify Homeopathy either.
As for the effort by these seventeen German experts to take down Homeopathy? If they get traction with the two public TV news people, and make it into a top ten-political topic situation.....they might be able to force regulation upon the profession. It might take five years to reach this level of change, but it's obvious that the medical profession thinks it's time to take on Homeopathy.
The Finland Attack
It is one of those migrant stories worth going over in detail.
About a week ago....up in a Finland town (Turku)....an attack took place where a migrant (Moroccan) killed two women and wounded eight others.
Turku is not a city that comes up often, often its got roughly 180,000 residents. It's about an hour's drive west of Helsinki. Back in the 1300s, it was a junction of activity, and a major castle went up as part of the local establishment. The castle is still around today and draws some tourists.
The attacker? Well...about eighteen months ago, this young guy (he would be eighteen now, but probably was sixteen when he arrived in the country)....had arrived in the country and applied for the residency visa.
He came into court yesterday (Tuesday) and admitted that he'd done all of the assault and murder, but said that none of this had anything to do with terrorism or jihad. Without a lot of words.....he's more or less saying that stress triggered this situation.
So you go back and look at the asylum application. He failed. The authorities don't say why....just that after he failed the application process....the asked for an appeal, and that was underway. No one suggests that the appeal would have gone any better.
My guess is that he realized that this 'golden-ticket' scheme (getting to Finland and thinking they'd let him stay)....was crashing and he couldn't handle the plan-B....which was to go back to Morocco.
All of this brings me to this observation that all of these government authorities (not just Finland).....are suggesting that if you just arrive.....you will be granted asylum or immigration. If you notice in every single country of Europe, the minute you get settled in and relaxed.....they pull out the thirty-odd page application document and start asking questions.
They ask for your passport or ID. They ask about your past. They ask about criminal convictions. They ask about education. They ask about your father and mother. They ask about your job history. All of this is leading to the day where some guy will make a decision that you have something to offer, or nothing to offer.
It's a behavioral thing.....while on one hand, everyone wants to make the open door seem very wide....when in fact, it opens and closes on a routine basis. So far, no one says that the appeal process shows much of any chance of changing the outcome.
The court in Finland? They will ask for a mental exam of the guy and if proven mentally unstable....it'll just add to the fact that he should never have been allowed in the country. A conviction? With the two murders, he's probably set for the bulk of his life (at least 25 years) to rest in some Finn prison. Maybe they will make some deal to remove him to Morocco and let him rest there in a prison.
The last thing about this whole story which I am curious about. He arrives in Finland and claims to be sixteen years old. Was he actually sixteen? A number of cases in Sweden have been identified where guys arrived and they were claiming to be under eighteen.....when they weren't. It would be curious if the application failure was due to an age problem.
About a week ago....up in a Finland town (Turku)....an attack took place where a migrant (Moroccan) killed two women and wounded eight others.
Turku is not a city that comes up often, often its got roughly 180,000 residents. It's about an hour's drive west of Helsinki. Back in the 1300s, it was a junction of activity, and a major castle went up as part of the local establishment. The castle is still around today and draws some tourists.
The attacker? Well...about eighteen months ago, this young guy (he would be eighteen now, but probably was sixteen when he arrived in the country)....had arrived in the country and applied for the residency visa.
He came into court yesterday (Tuesday) and admitted that he'd done all of the assault and murder, but said that none of this had anything to do with terrorism or jihad. Without a lot of words.....he's more or less saying that stress triggered this situation.
So you go back and look at the asylum application. He failed. The authorities don't say why....just that after he failed the application process....the asked for an appeal, and that was underway. No one suggests that the appeal would have gone any better.
My guess is that he realized that this 'golden-ticket' scheme (getting to Finland and thinking they'd let him stay)....was crashing and he couldn't handle the plan-B....which was to go back to Morocco.
All of this brings me to this observation that all of these government authorities (not just Finland).....are suggesting that if you just arrive.....you will be granted asylum or immigration. If you notice in every single country of Europe, the minute you get settled in and relaxed.....they pull out the thirty-odd page application document and start asking questions.
They ask for your passport or ID. They ask about your past. They ask about criminal convictions. They ask about education. They ask about your father and mother. They ask about your job history. All of this is leading to the day where some guy will make a decision that you have something to offer, or nothing to offer.
It's a behavioral thing.....while on one hand, everyone wants to make the open door seem very wide....when in fact, it opens and closes on a routine basis. So far, no one says that the appeal process shows much of any chance of changing the outcome.
The court in Finland? They will ask for a mental exam of the guy and if proven mentally unstable....it'll just add to the fact that he should never have been allowed in the country. A conviction? With the two murders, he's probably set for the bulk of his life (at least 25 years) to rest in some Finn prison. Maybe they will make some deal to remove him to Morocco and let him rest there in a prison.
The last thing about this whole story which I am curious about. He arrives in Finland and claims to be sixteen years old. Was he actually sixteen? A number of cases in Sweden have been identified where guys arrived and they were claiming to be under eighteen.....when they weren't. It would be curious if the application failure was due to an age problem.
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