Saturday, August 12, 2017

25 September 2017: The Day After the German Election

When you wake up on 25 September in'll be the day after the national election.

First, you sit and admire the win by Merkel, the CDU, the CSU, and how it almost was unnoticed that an election was underway.  Merkel's statistical win is likely to be in the 40-to-42 percent range.

Then you gaze over at the FDP, who mounted a pretty hefty win....getting near 9-percent.

The Martin Schulz candidacy for the SPD?'s a pretty amazing loss.  Everyone was hyped up for four weeks when he stepped into the candidacy, and then things slid south.  No one was peppy over the final 100 days of Schulz and the election.  The Schulz speeches, talking points, and promised changes?  It didn't matter how the news folks handled this....they just didn't sell well.

The news folks?  There's almost no real influence of any type for this election.  Various evenings have come and gone since June....where almost no real political news has been noted.  Compared to Austria, the US, the UK, or France?  Yeah, it's a shocker.

So now things go to the coalition deal....will the CDU/CSU team be able to match up with the FDP?  Will Seehofer from the Bavarian CSU demand something that Merkel can't deliver?  What minister positions will the FDP gain?

Folks retiring from public life in Berlin?  It's pretty much a fact that de Maiziere (Interior Minister) and Schauble (Financial Ministry) will retire.  Von de Leyen (Defense Minister) probably will seek a switch to the Interior Minister position, or retire. Two major female CDU players will likely be promoted up to Berlin (Pfalz's Klockner and Saarland's Kramp-Carrenbauer).

The CSU might play out their last chance at bringing Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg back into the system.  Most political analysts laugh over the suggestion but it's either now or never.

The 2017 to 2021 period?  It's going to be played out with Klockner and Kramp-Carrenbauer fighting over who will replace Merkel.

The SPD?  Well, this gets into an epic period of change.  There are three basic problems with the SPD at this point.  First, they've marginalized their brand to the point that some folks think there's no real difference between the SPD, Linke Party, and the Green Party.  Second, about a quarter of SPD enthusiasts don't want to see any relationship with the Linke Party to ever occur (like in a coalition). Third, if you threw out the top ten players of the's safe to say that none of them really hype anyone to some high level.

The next four years with this CDU-CSU and FDP coalition?  More or less, the same script.  It is Merkel's final tour.  Some insider play will occur with the EU, but the 2019 election and changing membership....along with BREXIT....along with Poland-poking (a new hobby of the EU)....makes this mostly an amusing period to watch.

Economically, there shouldn't be any dramatics or sensational changes coming.....the unemployment rate should stay in the five to six percent range.  The immigration crisis will just sit and simmer.  Erdogan's theatrics will continue on.  Some harsh feelings will eventually come with Macron of France but nothing of substance.

A decade from now.....people will look back and admit that the 2017 election just came and went....without any 'pop' or 'bang', and wonder why.

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