The If Scenario

I often point out consequences in history and how things could be different.

Today is the topic of the CDU Finance Minister....Wolfgang Schauble and 12 October 1990.

Up until this day, Schauble had risen up in the CDU ranks....was 48 years old....and was a personal friend of Helmet Kohl.  In 1989, a reshuffle occurred with Schauble brought in to be the new Interior Minister.  He was also a major part of the unification team....bring DDR into West Germany, and forming the new nation.

In this period leading up to 1994's German election....Schauble was attacked and suffered major physical damage....12 October 1990....putting him permanently into a wheel chair.  Over a period of four months....he goes through a recovery, and stays around.

Some folks suggested there in the period leading up to 1994....that Kohl ought to go ahead and retire.  He says no.  What you can generally say is that the star for Schauble was brightest at this point.

As you pass through the next four years....Kohl's star dims.

Schauble steps in to being the party chairman in 1998.  Again, you'd think that for this election period....Kohl would step down and Schauble would be the primary choice.  But no....that wasn't going to happen.

Around 2000, there is a scandal which erupts around Helmet Kohl.  It's over a secretive bank account with funds used by the CDU for party members....the account is outside of Germany.  Schauble ends up having to resign from the party chairmanship, although he seems to have never been involved in the fund (at least people think that).

From that point on, Merkel had the lead for the CDU Party in Germany.

If Kohl had stepped down in 1990 or 1994?  It's very likely Schauble would have been in position to be the next Chancellor.  In the end, Kohl felt that he was not replaceable, and stayed beyond the point of any value.

Merkel rests in the Chancellor position today....mostly because of Kohl's stubbornness and ill-timing.