Some commentary within the various German news sources in the last week....have suggested that there are last-minute shifts laying out there, which could affect not only Merkel but Schulz and the SPD as well.
A terror act? It's possible that some act could occur and demonstrate once again, on a massive scale....immigration open-doors are a major problem. The hint is that a few percent from both the CDU and SPD....could shift over to the AfD....moving them from the 9-to-10 percent level of today....to 13-to-14 percent. Odds of happening? Probably 50-50 chance.
Last-minute corruption accusation? It's hard to imagine either Merkel or Schulz having any corruption angle attached, but further down the line, there might be members of either party with problems. Here again, you could be talking about a loss of three or four points shifting away.
Poor performance in the debates (two of them)? Neither Merkel or Schulz are capable of dynamic debate moments. Both are college-professor-types in political clothing. Neither are likely of giving a two-star performance or changing much of any public opinion at this point in the game.
The idea of the Merkel/CDU-CSU team losing eight points over the last month? It just won't happen.
The idea of the Schulz/SPD team gaining eight points over the last month? One might easily see three points being gained....mostly at the cost of the Linke Party or Green Party. The fact that the debates are arranged to be ONLY Merkel and Schulz....really means losses for the lesser parties in the end. That's something that they dislike about the way this is being handled.
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