The Coalition Talk

There's been mostly minor chat over the past month or so on the next German government coalition.  Well....today, that shifted.  Focus put up an article and covered what the insiders to the CDU are talking about.

It's now assumed at a 100-percent chance that the CDU will win, and Merkel will lead them to another coalition government.

The situation now revolves around three possible coalition, and the potential winning amounts that the first two situations involve.

Most folks are centered on the CDU-CSU being able to take 40-to-42 percent of the vote.  Roughly ten-percent of the vote can be assumed for parties that will NOT get 5-percent or more in this election....so that 10-percent group aren't figured into the future.

So we are left with the three options:

1. The FDP (figured now to get 8-to-9 percent voting)

2. The Greens (figured at 6-to-7 percent voting, meaning it might not be enough if the polls hold true)

3. The SPD

Most analysts are thinking that the CDU-CSU and FDP coalition are the likely outcome.  Some folks think that Merkel is holding out and wanting to share power with the Greens....to prove a point that they could work with the Greens.

The benefit here?  Down in Baden-Wurttemberg, the Greens have disseminated the SPD Party and the CDU might be thinking that a good showing at the national level would aid the Greens in the other states, and set the SPD folks back for a full decade.

The problem with the Green association here is that you have to give out at least two to three cabinet posts, and agree to several national strategies which would go deep into Green Party philosophy.  This type of idea might not be that acceptable to the CSU folks out of Bavaria.

There is some talk as well....that the Greens might not be able to achieve more than 6-percent in this election....which would remove them from this suggestion.

Finally, you come to the SPD.  It's been a long four-year period and the number of issues that both parties have had to work through....haven't been that pleasant.  If you count cabinet posts....the SPD held a heavy hand on this government and the direction that has been taken.

My guess is that everyone is favored to work out some deal with the FDP....arrange two major cabinet posts for them (maybe the Finance Minister and the Vice-Chancellor position).  If the Greens do clear near 8-percent....they might be given a shot at some deal but the polling isn't showing them with a strong position anymore.