Sunday, August 13, 2017

German Polling on the SPD

I noticed that Focus brought up this brief discussion today....with a Emnid survey.

They asked around 1,800 Germans this question from the past week: "Which party would you choose, if the Bundestag elections were next Sunday?".

In this poll....the SPD Party bumped up one 24-percent.  Course, this demonstrated that the Greens lost one-point....going down to 7-percent.

The CDU/CSU folks stayed at the same level as noted a couple of weeks ago....near 38-percent.

There is this one key element about German voting....the independent voter....the guy or gal not associated with one particular party.

Once these folks get kinda locked in....about the only way that you will take or build up more by taking them from your general grouping.  The CDU might take some votes from the FDP or AfD.  The SPD might be able take some votes from the Greens or Linke Party.

A decade ago....the independent folks in Germany were this wildcard and could be figured at near a quarter of the voting population.  These are people who had one chief topic in their, the economy, nuke-energy, Bush, or corruption.

If you look over the past two years....there's nothing dismal about the government except for immigration....a topic that normally would NEVER come up in an election.  You can over the past dozen German national elections, and it's never figured into the top ten issues of a campaign.

For the SPD to get any traction right now....they'd need a bad economy (simply isn't the case), a pro-nuke-energy government (not the case), or a Bush.  In the Bush-scenario.....they actually have this to their advantage....except Chancellor Merkel has been anti-Trump even going back into the primary period of 2016.

So the SPD needs to chat around with the Green voters and convince a few here and there to come over to their cause.  The Greens?  In a normal year....they'd carry ten-percent.  But they've kinda screwed up and lost some voters already across the nation.

Frustration with the Greens over this tactic?  I'm guessing that they are sitting and grumbling over the situation.  They'd like to convince half the SPD voters to just dump the SPD Party and move permanently over to the Green position.  Some SPD members probably agree with that idea.  But this would be a pretty wild shift if it were to occur.

The coming election results?  If you combine the SPD, Green Party and Linke Party results and they don't go past forty-percent.....there's a pretty big problem for the three to plan out their future with.

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