I often essay about this pro-wolf attitude in Germany, and the situation where they are expanding out into various forests. Today, I noted via Focus (the news magazine) a massive attack on some sheep down in the Schwarzwald (deep forest territory to the southwest of Germany).....forty sheep dead.
What the authorities say is that this occurred around Bad Wildbad. The problem here is that while the wolf attack did kill some of the sheep....it is apparent that the rest jumped into local creek, and drowned.
Naturally, this brings up the whole pro-wolf agenda going on. One of the FDP folks even went to criticize the Green Party....saying that they should end their "romantic Wolf sponsorship".
From the general public right now....roughly four out of five Germans support the return of the wolf to local forests. The national numbers on wolves? It's suggested they number near 800 now across the nation. If nothing impedes this over the next decade? You can do the simple math and what they say about wolves and reproduction.....typically one litter of pups per year (after age 3). A reasonable guess would say a minimum of 5,000 wolves would exist in decade.
As for compensation? The state folks have to assess the killed sheep, and pay off the owner. I imagine that the state won't have much of a problem. But for sheep owners.....if this were to become a weekly event....they start to rethink their cooperative nature with this.
Monday, April 30, 2018
Could the Germans Accept Trump with a Nobel Peace Prize?
NO.
It's likely not to be a topic with the national public TV news media. I can't see them discussing this, or allowing anyone to bring it up.
Why the possibility? Well....with the act of both North and South Korea staging a peaceful action, the likely end of the Korean War (at least on paper), and maybe some serious upgrade in life for the North Korean people.....the question would come around to how they resolved things, and there's Donald Trump standing there. It's hard to avoid.
If the Nobel committee went this far and announced a threesome for the Nobel? I just can't see them doing it. They might go and just list the North and South Korean leaders.
But there's this problem laying there. Imagine both showing up, and they gave great speeches.....laying the cornerstone to their whole situation due to the efforts of Trump. Imagine the embarrassment of the Nobel crowd gathered.
The comical side here is that unlike the Nobel that President Obama received in the first six months of his tenure.....there was never anything that could be listed except for him being the guy following George Bush (the most hated individual of all time, at least in 2008).
So you have roughy six month before the announcement of the award. The odds here ought to be zero (at least the Germans would tell you that). But can the Nobel committee stand to be embarrassed if the two guys get up and start chatting about their good friend....Donald?
It's likely not to be a topic with the national public TV news media. I can't see them discussing this, or allowing anyone to bring it up.
Why the possibility? Well....with the act of both North and South Korea staging a peaceful action, the likely end of the Korean War (at least on paper), and maybe some serious upgrade in life for the North Korean people.....the question would come around to how they resolved things, and there's Donald Trump standing there. It's hard to avoid.
If the Nobel committee went this far and announced a threesome for the Nobel? I just can't see them doing it. They might go and just list the North and South Korean leaders.
But there's this problem laying there. Imagine both showing up, and they gave great speeches.....laying the cornerstone to their whole situation due to the efforts of Trump. Imagine the embarrassment of the Nobel crowd gathered.
The comical side here is that unlike the Nobel that President Obama received in the first six months of his tenure.....there was never anything that could be listed except for him being the guy following George Bush (the most hated individual of all time, at least in 2008).
So you have roughy six month before the announcement of the award. The odds here ought to be zero (at least the Germans would tell you that). But can the Nobel committee stand to be embarrassed if the two guys get up and start chatting about their good friend....Donald?
German Language Story
Deutsche Welle brought this story up over the German language mandate for immigrants into Germany.
The Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF)....says that in 2017....339,578 took the language classes to get the final visa...but only 289,751 did the final test itself, and from that group....only 48.7 percent passed the B1 standard required. The first test in the cycle? The A2 test? Only 40-percent of folks passed this on the first go-around.
BAMF gives various reasons for this. Some had illness episodes and missed classes. Some were unprepared for the class environment. Others actually found work and that forced them out of the classes. Some just moved on (meaning they left Germany). BAMF also suggest trauma in this arrival into Germany, and a bit of shock. Then they came to one suggestion....in that most have never had this type of class situation....in their original countries.
My son noted that in his German business group....the one or two occasions where they did pick up refugees who'd been through the system.....found continual trouble with the language and it made it difficult to utilize the individual.
I've been through various classes, and will admit that German is a highly structured language and not something for the 'weak-of-heart'. After a couple hundred hours in the classroom....you end up with a list of 'rules' that gets to being fairly long and in depth....where masculine, and feminine situations are not easily figured out (take the word 'sie' and try to figure if they are talking about a woman or a group, and then you realize only the verb will help you sort this mess out).
In this past class, I was a bit amazed at sickness or illness being used a good bit. There were at least two individuals in the group who probably missed over 50-percent of the classes. If you asked me over the odds of either passing the course with the final test? It just isn't great odds.
With my A2 test deal....I got into the 75-to-80 range....mostly with a marginal 'brief' (letter) that you have to write. I commented on this with my German-American son, who mostly grinned, and noted he hasn't written a real letter in ten years. I suspect if you went to test the German population....around one-third would admit they just never write letters (preferring email correspondence instead). In a way, it's a dying 'art'.
As for the implications here with the high failure rate? Well...either they will lessen the test threshold, or have to add some additional study classes into the whole thing. As for the sick-days? I'm not sure what you can do about that problem.
The Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF)....says that in 2017....339,578 took the language classes to get the final visa...but only 289,751 did the final test itself, and from that group....only 48.7 percent passed the B1 standard required. The first test in the cycle? The A2 test? Only 40-percent of folks passed this on the first go-around.
BAMF gives various reasons for this. Some had illness episodes and missed classes. Some were unprepared for the class environment. Others actually found work and that forced them out of the classes. Some just moved on (meaning they left Germany). BAMF also suggest trauma in this arrival into Germany, and a bit of shock. Then they came to one suggestion....in that most have never had this type of class situation....in their original countries.
My son noted that in his German business group....the one or two occasions where they did pick up refugees who'd been through the system.....found continual trouble with the language and it made it difficult to utilize the individual.
I've been through various classes, and will admit that German is a highly structured language and not something for the 'weak-of-heart'. After a couple hundred hours in the classroom....you end up with a list of 'rules' that gets to being fairly long and in depth....where masculine, and feminine situations are not easily figured out (take the word 'sie' and try to figure if they are talking about a woman or a group, and then you realize only the verb will help you sort this mess out).
In this past class, I was a bit amazed at sickness or illness being used a good bit. There were at least two individuals in the group who probably missed over 50-percent of the classes. If you asked me over the odds of either passing the course with the final test? It just isn't great odds.
With my A2 test deal....I got into the 75-to-80 range....mostly with a marginal 'brief' (letter) that you have to write. I commented on this with my German-American son, who mostly grinned, and noted he hasn't written a real letter in ten years. I suspect if you went to test the German population....around one-third would admit they just never write letters (preferring email correspondence instead). In a way, it's a dying 'art'.
As for the implications here with the high failure rate? Well...either they will lessen the test threshold, or have to add some additional study classes into the whole thing. As for the sick-days? I'm not sure what you can do about that problem.
Forum From Last Night
Last night came the weekly prime Anne Will Show on ARD (German public TV, Channel One). This is the big live chat forum of each week. It will always start at 9:45 PM and run approximately 60 minutes. The topic last night? US - German relations, and Trump.
The guests invited? Pete Altmier (Merkel's Minister of Energy and Economic affairs), a fairly clever guy and probably the only member of the group who leans slightly to the right. Jurgen Tritten, Green Party member. Dieter Kampf, President of the German Industries group, and there to talk the commerce angle to US-German trade. Christiane Hoffman, journalist with Spiegel magazine, which typically takes a negative US angle in articles. John Kornblum, former US ambassador to Germany (1998-2001), speaks German, has appeared numerous times on the show, and rarely has much positive to say over the Trump administration. Yes, in a way....it's a fairly slanted group
Focus, the German magazine talked to the high points of the show.
The chief questions that led off the show....will the tariff crap really occur....can Europe match up to the Americans....has Merkel been outpaced by France's Macron?
The hype early on is that Macron got the star-treatment when he arrived in the US.....Merkel, much less so. Yeah, it's truthful in the way that Macron was given better treatment. Kornblum notes at some point that Macron is probably narcissistic as Trump.
At some point, the guests of the show are trying to assess who from Merkel or Macron options would have presented the pro-EU case....never once stopping to think that Macron might be there to mostly represent France....not the EU.
Toward the latter part of the discussion....the Green representative (Trittin) noted that the Merkel handling of things haven't been that great. First, as he says....in the logic that Trump could be cornered and forced to a Obama-like view of things....was naive. Second, Trittin notes that Trump has actually sought to deliver on campaign promises, which most politicians rarely ever do (true on American political figures.....true on German political figures). Finally, Trittin hits on the speculation that Trump might not be a four-year president....that he might actually be around for eight years.
After the forum, I kinda sat there and pondered upon the affect. So I had three observations:
1. To be honest, at 9:45 PM on a Sunday night....while it is the number one forum of the week....there's a limited number of people who would watch it. With a dozen commercial networks, and at least ZDF (Channel Two of the public TV)....I doubt if they got more than 5-percent of the viewers who were still awake. Most Germans would have looked at the topic in the first two minutes, and said it doesn't really affect them, and flipped the channel.
2. The selling point of this perspective is always sell the EU (united). The trouble here is that they've given authority over trade to the EU. The German government really doesn't contain or own trade authority anymore. They may pretend they have authority, and actually have meetings to discuss their fake authority, but the EU owns all management and control of trade now. Over the weekend, even Merkel came to hint that the only way forward in dealing with the US is a TTIP agreement, which stalled out in the last six months of the Obama Administration (if you remember). Who owns TTIP? The EU....not Germany.
3. From November of 2016 on, there's been this intellectual discussion, and journalistic hype in Germany....that Trump was not legitimate....Trump was an idiot....Trump could not stand in the shadow of great EU leadership....and that Trump would not survive the four years. The news media (particularly the public TV networks) have tried to keep the focus on that 'brand'. I would agree for the first six months, the negative brand game did work....but this is wasting a lot of time, and if Trump is around for eight years.....trying to carry this negative brand situation will be just about impossible.
Why they didn't work to get the current (or new incoming) ambassador? With Kornblum, the forum management folks know that they get a anti-Trump talker. So, yes....the forum was micromanaged to produce a certain dialog.
If you want to watch the forum? Here's the site, although it's all in German.....runs for about sixty minutes.
The guests invited? Pete Altmier (Merkel's Minister of Energy and Economic affairs), a fairly clever guy and probably the only member of the group who leans slightly to the right. Jurgen Tritten, Green Party member. Dieter Kampf, President of the German Industries group, and there to talk the commerce angle to US-German trade. Christiane Hoffman, journalist with Spiegel magazine, which typically takes a negative US angle in articles. John Kornblum, former US ambassador to Germany (1998-2001), speaks German, has appeared numerous times on the show, and rarely has much positive to say over the Trump administration. Yes, in a way....it's a fairly slanted group
Focus, the German magazine talked to the high points of the show.
The chief questions that led off the show....will the tariff crap really occur....can Europe match up to the Americans....has Merkel been outpaced by France's Macron?
The hype early on is that Macron got the star-treatment when he arrived in the US.....Merkel, much less so. Yeah, it's truthful in the way that Macron was given better treatment. Kornblum notes at some point that Macron is probably narcissistic as Trump.
At some point, the guests of the show are trying to assess who from Merkel or Macron options would have presented the pro-EU case....never once stopping to think that Macron might be there to mostly represent France....not the EU.
Toward the latter part of the discussion....the Green representative (Trittin) noted that the Merkel handling of things haven't been that great. First, as he says....in the logic that Trump could be cornered and forced to a Obama-like view of things....was naive. Second, Trittin notes that Trump has actually sought to deliver on campaign promises, which most politicians rarely ever do (true on American political figures.....true on German political figures). Finally, Trittin hits on the speculation that Trump might not be a four-year president....that he might actually be around for eight years.
After the forum, I kinda sat there and pondered upon the affect. So I had three observations:
1. To be honest, at 9:45 PM on a Sunday night....while it is the number one forum of the week....there's a limited number of people who would watch it. With a dozen commercial networks, and at least ZDF (Channel Two of the public TV)....I doubt if they got more than 5-percent of the viewers who were still awake. Most Germans would have looked at the topic in the first two minutes, and said it doesn't really affect them, and flipped the channel.
2. The selling point of this perspective is always sell the EU (united). The trouble here is that they've given authority over trade to the EU. The German government really doesn't contain or own trade authority anymore. They may pretend they have authority, and actually have meetings to discuss their fake authority, but the EU owns all management and control of trade now. Over the weekend, even Merkel came to hint that the only way forward in dealing with the US is a TTIP agreement, which stalled out in the last six months of the Obama Administration (if you remember). Who owns TTIP? The EU....not Germany.
3. From November of 2016 on, there's been this intellectual discussion, and journalistic hype in Germany....that Trump was not legitimate....Trump was an idiot....Trump could not stand in the shadow of great EU leadership....and that Trump would not survive the four years. The news media (particularly the public TV networks) have tried to keep the focus on that 'brand'. I would agree for the first six months, the negative brand game did work....but this is wasting a lot of time, and if Trump is around for eight years.....trying to carry this negative brand situation will be just about impossible.
Why they didn't work to get the current (or new incoming) ambassador? With Kornblum, the forum management folks know that they get a anti-Trump talker. So, yes....the forum was micromanaged to produce a certain dialog.
If you want to watch the forum? Here's the site, although it's all in German.....runs for about sixty minutes.
Sunday, April 29, 2018
German Polling Story
I noticed looking over the BILD am Sonntag (the BILD's Sunday newspaper) this morning....that a political reading was made with a polling group, and looking over national trends.....it's a bit of a change.
The CDU folks (Merkel's party)? They've dropped down to 32-percent (not the lowest in the past six months, but a trend is setting in). If you go back to the November period of last year (after the election), they did reach a 31-percent level.
Why the downward trend? No one with BILD talks much over that .
The SPD? Well....no change. They weren't the ones gaining from the CDU lost numbers. They stand at 18-percent.
The AfD (the anti-migrant/immigrant party)? They moved up a notch to fourteen-percent.
The Greens (12-percent), the Linke (11-percent), and the FDP (9-percent) make no obvious changes.
Both the SPD and CDU need public numbers to return to the level of 2015 (before the immigrant negativity started up), and this period of three years before the next national election is supposed to give them a chance to lessen this whole negativity.
If you go back to the period between 1949 and 1990....the two national parties used to take a combined 75-to-85 percent of the national vote between them. Since the Wall came down....almost every single election has been a two-to-four point decrease on their combined vote pattern. If you look at 2021's election....there is anticipated view that combined....they won't pass the 50-percent point.
The CDU folks (Merkel's party)? They've dropped down to 32-percent (not the lowest in the past six months, but a trend is setting in). If you go back to the November period of last year (after the election), they did reach a 31-percent level.
Why the downward trend? No one with BILD talks much over that .
The SPD? Well....no change. They weren't the ones gaining from the CDU lost numbers. They stand at 18-percent.
The AfD (the anti-migrant/immigrant party)? They moved up a notch to fourteen-percent.
The Greens (12-percent), the Linke (11-percent), and the FDP (9-percent) make no obvious changes.
Both the SPD and CDU need public numbers to return to the level of 2015 (before the immigrant negativity started up), and this period of three years before the next national election is supposed to give them a chance to lessen this whole negativity.
If you go back to the period between 1949 and 1990....the two national parties used to take a combined 75-to-85 percent of the national vote between them. Since the Wall came down....almost every single election has been a two-to-four point decrease on their combined vote pattern. If you look at 2021's election....there is anticipated view that combined....they won't pass the 50-percent point.
German Army Cash Issues
Over the course of the last couple of years, I've essayed a bit over the issues of the German military and their shortfalls involving equipment. Jokes are regularly made by German comedians about this problem, or this series of aircraft being grounded. Politicians can generally hype the issues but to rectify the problems....it only leads to conversations about more cash flow into the organization to pay for solutions. No one wants to really get serious about that.
I noted today....N-TV, the German commercial news service hyped this new 'chatter'.
The Defense Minister....Ursula von der Leyen (CDU)....has gone and requested an additional twelve billion euros (over four years) on top of the current budget.
The odds that the request can be fulfilled by the Chief of Budget (Scholz, SPD)? The entire amount? It's difficult to predict.
Right now, there's heavy competition about taking any existing 'extra' funds in the budget to correct problems with social welfare. Various other cabinet members are also fighting for extra funds.
Taxation increasing to pay for all of this? That's not something that the public will buy off on. Even if you went after companies to increase the taxation....it might encourage movement to another EU member state to repair the taxation issue.
But going back to the German military....are they really in that bad of shape? Most of what you tend to see in various reports is a marginalized logistical line. Spare parts aren't there when things break down. So you order the part from your commercial vendor, and wait for the arrival. It might be a month.....maybe several months, before this part arrives. If this were the case only with fighter aircraft, it might be acceptable. But they repeat this process with helicopters, subs, ships, tanks, etc.
Logically, you get to a point of wondering if this logistical 'curve' is intentional and created in a way to ensure that the German military never participates in any military conflicts. It's an amusing way to conduct affairs, but this has been going on for at least a decade now.
So settle back and watch the financial talk unfold over more cash.
I noted today....N-TV, the German commercial news service hyped this new 'chatter'.
The Defense Minister....Ursula von der Leyen (CDU)....has gone and requested an additional twelve billion euros (over four years) on top of the current budget.
The odds that the request can be fulfilled by the Chief of Budget (Scholz, SPD)? The entire amount? It's difficult to predict.
Right now, there's heavy competition about taking any existing 'extra' funds in the budget to correct problems with social welfare. Various other cabinet members are also fighting for extra funds.
Taxation increasing to pay for all of this? That's not something that the public will buy off on. Even if you went after companies to increase the taxation....it might encourage movement to another EU member state to repair the taxation issue.
But going back to the German military....are they really in that bad of shape? Most of what you tend to see in various reports is a marginalized logistical line. Spare parts aren't there when things break down. So you order the part from your commercial vendor, and wait for the arrival. It might be a month.....maybe several months, before this part arrives. If this were the case only with fighter aircraft, it might be acceptable. But they repeat this process with helicopters, subs, ships, tanks, etc.
Logically, you get to a point of wondering if this logistical 'curve' is intentional and created in a way to ensure that the German military never participates in any military conflicts. It's an amusing way to conduct affairs, but this has been going on for at least a decade now.
So settle back and watch the financial talk unfold over more cash.
Saturday, April 28, 2018
Last Night's German Public News
If you watched the 8 PM news last night on German public TV Channel One (ARD), the big hype was the North Korea/South Korea story. In fact, it was so big....that as the news concluded at 8:15 PM....they launched into a special 15-minute news piece, which only had to deal with the one single topic, and would end with a live chat with a German professor who was a Korea-expert.
So as they entered this special news piece, for roughly seven minutes....they avoided mentioning any connection to this peace chat going on between the two Koreas....to the US, or President Trump. It was difficult to tell the story like this but you could sit amazed that they actually accomplished this.
Around the 8th minute of the live broadcast, as they brought on the guest professor to explain everything....he was careful to only use the words "US", and "the President". At some point, he screwed up and uttered "Trump".
It is in some way fascinating to watch the last month, and how the German public news media have attempted to craft the story and lay it out. Nothing about the story can lay any positive words over Trump, Trump-diplomacy (blunt would be the key word), or the events that occurred.
More or less, they've written the script here for what will occur. The North and South Korea groups will meet up with President Trump, and some peace treaty over the Korean War will be signed. Some long-term talks will occur over reunification, with US troops quietly leaving in increments....maybe taking a decade. And the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded to the North and South Korean governments (minus President Trump).
The problem with this slant? Well....for most of 2017, and up until March of 2018.....the German public news media told the story over and over of war about to break out any minute between North Korea and the US, and the entire blame must be given to President Trump. Just via ARD's nightly news, if you go back and review the past 365 evenings of that 'brand' of news....there's at least forty mentions of potential war, and on some rare occasions....suggesting nuclear war. They've wasted various hours crafting the story to fit this way.
And now? If you were a regular viewer of the ARD public news script, you might sit there and ask how they got from the potential all-out war script to a Nobel Peace Prize script? If you were looking for reasons why German public confidence isn't all that high with the public news media.....this is one of those odd reasons.
So as they entered this special news piece, for roughly seven minutes....they avoided mentioning any connection to this peace chat going on between the two Koreas....to the US, or President Trump. It was difficult to tell the story like this but you could sit amazed that they actually accomplished this.
Around the 8th minute of the live broadcast, as they brought on the guest professor to explain everything....he was careful to only use the words "US", and "the President". At some point, he screwed up and uttered "Trump".
It is in some way fascinating to watch the last month, and how the German public news media have attempted to craft the story and lay it out. Nothing about the story can lay any positive words over Trump, Trump-diplomacy (blunt would be the key word), or the events that occurred.
More or less, they've written the script here for what will occur. The North and South Korea groups will meet up with President Trump, and some peace treaty over the Korean War will be signed. Some long-term talks will occur over reunification, with US troops quietly leaving in increments....maybe taking a decade. And the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded to the North and South Korean governments (minus President Trump).
The problem with this slant? Well....for most of 2017, and up until March of 2018.....the German public news media told the story over and over of war about to break out any minute between North Korea and the US, and the entire blame must be given to President Trump. Just via ARD's nightly news, if you go back and review the past 365 evenings of that 'brand' of news....there's at least forty mentions of potential war, and on some rare occasions....suggesting nuclear war. They've wasted various hours crafting the story to fit this way.
And now? If you were a regular viewer of the ARD public news script, you might sit there and ask how they got from the potential all-out war script to a Nobel Peace Prize script? If you were looking for reasons why German public confidence isn't all that high with the public news media.....this is one of those odd reasons.
The Deportation Center Story
There are a couple major issues that routinely pop up when you mention the terms: Germany, migrants, and failed applicants. One of these issues is deportation. It came up in the news last night via ARD (public TV, Channel One).
No matter where you come from, or your reasoning for asylum or migration into Germany.....there's paperwork. Then there's an evaluation. And then there's the two doors (enter, and exit). Typically, once you get on the exit list....you can go to an appeal process or legal challenge. A German judge is then put into the equation. For some folks, it's a plus....thus a second chance. But once that judge signs off on the exit situation....there's no more appeals. And because of the EU rules in place....you can't pack up and go off to Italy, or France, or Sweden.....your whole status was dependent on one single application within the EU.
So ARD sat there and talked about this concept being discussed of the "anchor centers". Once you failed, you'd be picked up by some cops, and taken to a facility where you'd sit until you got on the plane to leave.
There are two hyped-up groups here. One group wants the failed applicants out of Germany as soon as possible, with no excuses by doctors, bureaucrats, or pro-asylum 'players'. The second group believes the centers being discussed will be a total failure, and gives the wrong image to migrants, and the world.
Statistically (at least with early 2018 numbers).....only every third person on the failed visa application list is deported. Varying reasons exist. Some will say no passport exists. Some will face the hardship that the original country refuses to take them back. Some have doctors writing up 'sick-notes' to delay the process.
Right now.....231,933 persons are in the deportation line. Roughly three-quarters of this group have a temporary suspension in place because of appeals, doctor's notes, passport issues, or original country refusing them.
For a long time, the German federal government stayed out of this whole business, and it was the state governments (16) that were in charge of deportation efforts. Oddly, you had some states with very high failure rates on deporting failed applicants. And you had a couple with statistically higher rates of success. For the federal government, looking at public negativity from the 2017 election...they've stepped up to the plate and intend to take over the whole mess of deportation.
The suggestion of these centers being created for deportees as appearing as "internment" and "camps"? Well....yes. There's some feeling that these will be long-term deportation centers, with people possibly facing more than just days or weeks, and some might be viewing a year or two in some waiting status while their original country argues about taking the guy back.
What's really at fault here? Two things:
1. Prior to 2013, for decades....the normal practice of asylum or migration into Germany was that you (in your home country) would go to the German embassy....present a legit ID, and fill out 15 pages of paperwork. There would be a 90 day (roughly) review process, and if accepted, they'd hand you a full-up visa, and you'd fly out days later into Germany. The process was simple and worked. The failed applicants? They had a chance to apply again.
Decisions were made by the German federal government to just overlook the time-test method, and let people walk in, and demand asylum or migration-status. This opened the door to a bigger mess.
2. The 'message' or 'brand' of an open door in Germany has a lot of people arriving under the belief that no review will occur, and that the visa is automatic. So they refuse to believe otherwise. Who developed this 'brand'? The federal folks in Berlin.
All of these deportation centers, once built and operating....will become magnets for the news media in Germany, and likely become negative topics. Once pushed into this darkened corner....the crowd viewing this as a mess, and fairly negative about migration/asylum.....will decide that their vote needs to be pushed across again, and potentially benefit the AfD Party. That's the sad part about this whole discussion. You can either fix the problem, or face up to the public's solution.
No matter where you come from, or your reasoning for asylum or migration into Germany.....there's paperwork. Then there's an evaluation. And then there's the two doors (enter, and exit). Typically, once you get on the exit list....you can go to an appeal process or legal challenge. A German judge is then put into the equation. For some folks, it's a plus....thus a second chance. But once that judge signs off on the exit situation....there's no more appeals. And because of the EU rules in place....you can't pack up and go off to Italy, or France, or Sweden.....your whole status was dependent on one single application within the EU.
So ARD sat there and talked about this concept being discussed of the "anchor centers". Once you failed, you'd be picked up by some cops, and taken to a facility where you'd sit until you got on the plane to leave.
There are two hyped-up groups here. One group wants the failed applicants out of Germany as soon as possible, with no excuses by doctors, bureaucrats, or pro-asylum 'players'. The second group believes the centers being discussed will be a total failure, and gives the wrong image to migrants, and the world.
Statistically (at least with early 2018 numbers).....only every third person on the failed visa application list is deported. Varying reasons exist. Some will say no passport exists. Some will face the hardship that the original country refuses to take them back. Some have doctors writing up 'sick-notes' to delay the process.
Right now.....231,933 persons are in the deportation line. Roughly three-quarters of this group have a temporary suspension in place because of appeals, doctor's notes, passport issues, or original country refusing them.
For a long time, the German federal government stayed out of this whole business, and it was the state governments (16) that were in charge of deportation efforts. Oddly, you had some states with very high failure rates on deporting failed applicants. And you had a couple with statistically higher rates of success. For the federal government, looking at public negativity from the 2017 election...they've stepped up to the plate and intend to take over the whole mess of deportation.
The suggestion of these centers being created for deportees as appearing as "internment" and "camps"? Well....yes. There's some feeling that these will be long-term deportation centers, with people possibly facing more than just days or weeks, and some might be viewing a year or two in some waiting status while their original country argues about taking the guy back.
What's really at fault here? Two things:
1. Prior to 2013, for decades....the normal practice of asylum or migration into Germany was that you (in your home country) would go to the German embassy....present a legit ID, and fill out 15 pages of paperwork. There would be a 90 day (roughly) review process, and if accepted, they'd hand you a full-up visa, and you'd fly out days later into Germany. The process was simple and worked. The failed applicants? They had a chance to apply again.
Decisions were made by the German federal government to just overlook the time-test method, and let people walk in, and demand asylum or migration-status. This opened the door to a bigger mess.
2. The 'message' or 'brand' of an open door in Germany has a lot of people arriving under the belief that no review will occur, and that the visa is automatic. So they refuse to believe otherwise. Who developed this 'brand'? The federal folks in Berlin.
All of these deportation centers, once built and operating....will become magnets for the news media in Germany, and likely become negative topics. Once pushed into this darkened corner....the crowd viewing this as a mess, and fairly negative about migration/asylum.....will decide that their vote needs to be pushed across again, and potentially benefit the AfD Party. That's the sad part about this whole discussion. You can either fix the problem, or face up to the public's solution.
Friday, April 27, 2018
Top Ten Topics Going on in Germany
Occasionally, I'll write an essay where I discuss the top ten topics going on in Germany culture, society, or the landscape. We are approaching the first of May....where one last big drive of the German news media and politicians will occur, and by late June....the sixty-day German vacation will start up....where nothing occurs in the news cycle because the movers and shakers are on a summer-long sabbatical. Most non-Germans laugh about this, but its a routine that you commonly figure out after a decade in the system.
I'll note in this sabbatical period....TV programing goes to the 'dogs' (as we say in the US).....mostly all reruns or 1960s/1970s movies. Most Germans frequent outdoor beer-gardens....sip a fair amount of wine....and have selected three or four must-read books for their off-period.
As for the top ten topics on the table in this current period? (in random order):
- Rebuilding Hartz IV (the welfare system). Intellectuals, welfare recipients, and politicians all generally agree that the system (having been around for 16 years).....is screwed up. Rebuilding it? Well....you'd have to tax the heck out of some folks, to create this new solution.
- Diesel car ban. Roughly thirty to forty urbanized cities (from Stuttgart to Hamburg) have agendas on the table for the ban, and now realize that Berlin (the federal government) will not come to bribe them out of the ban. With over fourteen million diesel cars and owners in the country....it's a fairly big mess here, and no solution to avoid what has been created.
- BREXIT. There's a path, and a schedule. Most Germans agree....it's not going to hurt the German economy to a major degree, but have come to realize the missing money in the EU account....has to be made up (so they can gift the money back, you know). A hefty rise in taxation to pay for this? Maybe.
- The TV-media Tax. The public TV network would like to make sure it's discussed much.....as will most of the political folks. However, if you wander into a group of plain Germans and bring up the tax (17.50 Euro a month)....there's a fair amount of negativity, and this suggestion that by 2020, it might go up? Oh....that's not going to sell well.
- Crime. Cops say the crime stuff is going down. Assaults? Slightly up. Fair amount of chatter occurs daily now about drugs flowing into Germany, and the belief that the hard-stuff is being used more. They aren't necessarily chattering about the migrants being the chief cause, but several mafia groups now exist in Germany, and the cops readily admit they need more personnel.
- World Cup action. I would suggest that one out of every three Germans is fairly enthusiastic about the games coming up, and their evening schedules will be written out.
- German military equipment. Basically, the Bundeswehr has been on a long run of bad luck with operational status of most all pieces of equipment 'in-the-shop'. It doesn't matter if you talk subs, ships, tanks, helicopters, aircraft, or whatever. Most Germans will tell you it's not a big deal to them, but then they get drawn into the 'blame-game' and wonder how this all came to occur.
- The BER Airport saga. If you were looking for a great thesis over badly planned and executed airport projects, this would give you over a hundred pages of material. We are at least eight years behind schedule, and nothing says that it'll get any better in 2019. The Berlin Airport....even if it were to open next month....would need another massive revision shortly to meet the amount of traffic expected by 2019.
- Erdogan. Five years ago....Germans flowed into Turkey for summer vacations and spent tons of money....soaking up sunshine, and having a great time. The coup, and the talk from Erdogan? It changed everyone's perception and made it a basic no-go area. Germans still talk about this, and all the fantastic deals (two weeks in a 5-star resort with airfare and three meals a day, with unlimited Turkish beer, for only 350 Euro).
- Finally Trump. The Trump-Schadenfreude situation stumbles on. The German news crowd, the intellectual folks and probably 70-percent of the political folks hype on the Trump-Schadenfreude deal.....grinning as they want to discuss the hour-by-hour negatives. There's three problems at present. First, from the general German public....more than half the nation doesn't care anymore (over-hype basically occurred). Second, there's some questioning now that maybe Trump might be around for 6.5 more years, which would be hard to maintain Schadenfreude for that long of time (no one has ever pushed it that far before). Finally, there is some growing German feeling that they need some bold leadership change (note, they aren't talking about a Trump-like character, just someone with boldness). 2021 is the next election, and Merkel says she will be finished by then.
I'll note in this sabbatical period....TV programing goes to the 'dogs' (as we say in the US).....mostly all reruns or 1960s/1970s movies. Most Germans frequent outdoor beer-gardens....sip a fair amount of wine....and have selected three or four must-read books for their off-period.
As for the top ten topics on the table in this current period? (in random order):
- Rebuilding Hartz IV (the welfare system). Intellectuals, welfare recipients, and politicians all generally agree that the system (having been around for 16 years).....is screwed up. Rebuilding it? Well....you'd have to tax the heck out of some folks, to create this new solution.
- Diesel car ban. Roughly thirty to forty urbanized cities (from Stuttgart to Hamburg) have agendas on the table for the ban, and now realize that Berlin (the federal government) will not come to bribe them out of the ban. With over fourteen million diesel cars and owners in the country....it's a fairly big mess here, and no solution to avoid what has been created.
- BREXIT. There's a path, and a schedule. Most Germans agree....it's not going to hurt the German economy to a major degree, but have come to realize the missing money in the EU account....has to be made up (so they can gift the money back, you know). A hefty rise in taxation to pay for this? Maybe.
- The TV-media Tax. The public TV network would like to make sure it's discussed much.....as will most of the political folks. However, if you wander into a group of plain Germans and bring up the tax (17.50 Euro a month)....there's a fair amount of negativity, and this suggestion that by 2020, it might go up? Oh....that's not going to sell well.
- Crime. Cops say the crime stuff is going down. Assaults? Slightly up. Fair amount of chatter occurs daily now about drugs flowing into Germany, and the belief that the hard-stuff is being used more. They aren't necessarily chattering about the migrants being the chief cause, but several mafia groups now exist in Germany, and the cops readily admit they need more personnel.
- World Cup action. I would suggest that one out of every three Germans is fairly enthusiastic about the games coming up, and their evening schedules will be written out.
- German military equipment. Basically, the Bundeswehr has been on a long run of bad luck with operational status of most all pieces of equipment 'in-the-shop'. It doesn't matter if you talk subs, ships, tanks, helicopters, aircraft, or whatever. Most Germans will tell you it's not a big deal to them, but then they get drawn into the 'blame-game' and wonder how this all came to occur.
- The BER Airport saga. If you were looking for a great thesis over badly planned and executed airport projects, this would give you over a hundred pages of material. We are at least eight years behind schedule, and nothing says that it'll get any better in 2019. The Berlin Airport....even if it were to open next month....would need another massive revision shortly to meet the amount of traffic expected by 2019.
- Erdogan. Five years ago....Germans flowed into Turkey for summer vacations and spent tons of money....soaking up sunshine, and having a great time. The coup, and the talk from Erdogan? It changed everyone's perception and made it a basic no-go area. Germans still talk about this, and all the fantastic deals (two weeks in a 5-star resort with airfare and three meals a day, with unlimited Turkish beer, for only 350 Euro).
- Finally Trump. The Trump-Schadenfreude situation stumbles on. The German news crowd, the intellectual folks and probably 70-percent of the political folks hype on the Trump-Schadenfreude deal.....grinning as they want to discuss the hour-by-hour negatives. There's three problems at present. First, from the general German public....more than half the nation doesn't care anymore (over-hype basically occurred). Second, there's some questioning now that maybe Trump might be around for 6.5 more years, which would be hard to maintain Schadenfreude for that long of time (no one has ever pushed it that far before). Finally, there is some growing German feeling that they need some bold leadership change (note, they aren't talking about a Trump-like character, just someone with boldness). 2021 is the next election, and Merkel says she will be finished by then.
Bosch Diesel Engine story
I've essayed a good bit over the past year about Germans and their diesel car issues. I noticed this morning, via Focus (the German news magazine) a new bit on the diesel car business in Germany.
One of the major car-parts industry companies in Germany is Bosch. They do a lot of developmental ideas. So it came up today....they've been working on improving diesel engines.
They apparently have a new technology that would make the diesel crisis go away....a cleaner burning engine. Course, you have to wonder....is it too late? Are owners so fearful of diesel and the ban-business....that there is zero interest in ever going back to diesel?
The nitrogen oxide issue? What Bosch says is that their engine will meet the current specs required and the next level anticipated. They also say the cost factor will be no different than the current engine prices, and that fuel consumption will stay about the same.
The angle here? What they suggest is a new type of fuel injection technology, a change in the engine temperature situation, an improved air system and some kind of improved onboard computer system.
German diesel car owners were a fairly obsessive group of owners. Once they convinced themselves of diesel....they were career diesel-owners. Once a guy wrapped up ten years of ownership car number one....they'd go and easily convince themselves to get number two, and eventually number three. This VW crisis and the negativity created by cities suggesting they 'might' ban diesel cars? It ruined the mindset of these people. No one really knows what to expect now.
Bosch? Maybe they've got a great idea, but with the demand by the public leaning toward more battery-powered cars....this new engine development is probably wasted effort. Course, maybe with the Chinese, this might be moment where they entice Bosch to demo the engine, and install it into some Chinese-made cars.
One of the major car-parts industry companies in Germany is Bosch. They do a lot of developmental ideas. So it came up today....they've been working on improving diesel engines.
They apparently have a new technology that would make the diesel crisis go away....a cleaner burning engine. Course, you have to wonder....is it too late? Are owners so fearful of diesel and the ban-business....that there is zero interest in ever going back to diesel?
The nitrogen oxide issue? What Bosch says is that their engine will meet the current specs required and the next level anticipated. They also say the cost factor will be no different than the current engine prices, and that fuel consumption will stay about the same.
The angle here? What they suggest is a new type of fuel injection technology, a change in the engine temperature situation, an improved air system and some kind of improved onboard computer system.
German diesel car owners were a fairly obsessive group of owners. Once they convinced themselves of diesel....they were career diesel-owners. Once a guy wrapped up ten years of ownership car number one....they'd go and easily convince themselves to get number two, and eventually number three. This VW crisis and the negativity created by cities suggesting they 'might' ban diesel cars? It ruined the mindset of these people. No one really knows what to expect now.
Bosch? Maybe they've got a great idea, but with the demand by the public leaning toward more battery-powered cars....this new engine development is probably wasted effort. Course, maybe with the Chinese, this might be moment where they entice Bosch to demo the engine, and install it into some Chinese-made cars.
The New Ambassador
It's done. For fifteen months.....the Germans have been waiting on the next US ambassador. Yesterday, the US Senate finally confirmed the guy....Richard Grenell. N-TV, the commercial news network in Germany picked up most of the story this morning.
Some of the past picks for US ambassador in Germany.....spoke the language....Grenell does not. I don't consider it a big deal.
His background? He's fairly educated: master's degree in Public Administration from Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government....a bachelor's degree in Government and Public Administration from Evangel University. He's an expert communicator, and dealt with a number of political folks (George Bush, Mitt Romney). Finally, he is openly gay and a Republican.
What this means now? I think three factors will fall into play.
1. US relations with Germany are mediocre at this point....mostly over the negativity message of the national media after the election. German forums, if they were going hype some US decision or direction....will have to invite Grenell to the group, and he will ably communicate the position to the group....avoiding fake intellectualism.
2. Grenell has often taken very pro-Israel positions, and that tends be a table topic of intellectual discussions on Germany.
3. There is this odd charm of Grenell. He can be direct. He's openly gay.....openly Christian, and often noted as a guy familiar with the Hollywood crowd. He's not hesitant in debates, and logically drives a good conversation. If you really needed to reconstruct the German negativity over Trump....Grenell would be the logical pick.
I won't predict a total retreat by the Germans on their negativity of Trump. But I suspect by the end of 2018.....the public news sector will likely tone-down their hype a notch or two (similar to what they did over the last two years of the Bush era).
Some of the past picks for US ambassador in Germany.....spoke the language....Grenell does not. I don't consider it a big deal.
His background? He's fairly educated: master's degree in Public Administration from Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government....a bachelor's degree in Government and Public Administration from Evangel University. He's an expert communicator, and dealt with a number of political folks (George Bush, Mitt Romney). Finally, he is openly gay and a Republican.
What this means now? I think three factors will fall into play.
1. US relations with Germany are mediocre at this point....mostly over the negativity message of the national media after the election. German forums, if they were going hype some US decision or direction....will have to invite Grenell to the group, and he will ably communicate the position to the group....avoiding fake intellectualism.
2. Grenell has often taken very pro-Israel positions, and that tends be a table topic of intellectual discussions on Germany.
3. There is this odd charm of Grenell. He can be direct. He's openly gay.....openly Christian, and often noted as a guy familiar with the Hollywood crowd. He's not hesitant in debates, and logically drives a good conversation. If you really needed to reconstruct the German negativity over Trump....Grenell would be the logical pick.
I won't predict a total retreat by the Germans on their negativity of Trump. But I suspect by the end of 2018.....the public news sector will likely tone-down their hype a notch or two (similar to what they did over the last two years of the Bush era).
Sanitation Story
Germans go and do things that you don't usually anticipate. ARD (the public TV network folks) went and did a piece on German soccer and sanitation.
Health authorities got around to the Bundesliga stadiums, and decided to do hygiene samples. Not just the food areas, you'd expect....but the showers, the stands, etc. Frankfurt, Koln and Bremen were the places used for this testing.
Various stages of abnormalities were found. In Koln....the beer was even found to have some level of issue. In Frankfurt, the team showers were found to have problems.
Twenty-seven total 'findings' were noted in the three locations. 'Findings' mean that you need to attend to the issue, because the law mandates it.
I sat and pondered over the story. You find various German universities now engaged in public testing over sanitation, and bringing more awareness to the general public. Generally, getting food-poisoning in Germany is awful difficult (I won't say impossible, but you just don't find many people who've ever had food poisoning).
I've been to one single stadium game in my life (over at Mainz). Sanitation-wise, I'd have to rate them as a 4-star-plus situation. It didn't matter where you walked there....they made a huge effort to make it look clean and tidy.
As for this being a big deal? Well....they haven't tested German trains or subways yet, and I think they would find plenty of sanitation issues there. Same for schools and universities. So, I think this is simply part of a trend to alert to the public and hope that they improve sanitation.
Health authorities got around to the Bundesliga stadiums, and decided to do hygiene samples. Not just the food areas, you'd expect....but the showers, the stands, etc. Frankfurt, Koln and Bremen were the places used for this testing.
Various stages of abnormalities were found. In Koln....the beer was even found to have some level of issue. In Frankfurt, the team showers were found to have problems.
Twenty-seven total 'findings' were noted in the three locations. 'Findings' mean that you need to attend to the issue, because the law mandates it.
I sat and pondered over the story. You find various German universities now engaged in public testing over sanitation, and bringing more awareness to the general public. Generally, getting food-poisoning in Germany is awful difficult (I won't say impossible, but you just don't find many people who've ever had food poisoning).
I've been to one single stadium game in my life (over at Mainz). Sanitation-wise, I'd have to rate them as a 4-star-plus situation. It didn't matter where you walked there....they made a huge effort to make it look clean and tidy.
As for this being a big deal? Well....they haven't tested German trains or subways yet, and I think they would find plenty of sanitation issues there. Same for schools and universities. So, I think this is simply part of a trend to alert to the public and hope that they improve sanitation.
Thursday, April 26, 2018
Universal Income, For Work?
There's a German business story out there this morning, from the Focus business news (news magazine).....detailing this political agenda being talked about with the CDU Party.
The new strategy quietly discussed by the party? The idea to push people under the age of fifty who are on social welfare (Hartz IV) out, and lead them to employment. (Hint: push is a good word in this case).
Why? Well....just about everyone in the business community will admit now that the trend for skilled workers is downward, and expected to continue that direction. The idea is that if you are between 18 and 50....sitting at home and whining about Hartz IV is not helping the business community.
One aspect of this long-term unemployed deal is that so many of these people don't have a certificate or real skill area.
They aren't clear on how you'd 'force' a guy to go....apply....and accept work, period. The carrot here on the stick appears that you just wouldn't get any welfare pay, but I don't know how you'd pass that via the Bundestag (the SPD folks, and the Linke Party would stand against it).
Yeah, it would become some sort of conditional basic universal income deal in a way.....where you get paid, for work. One can be amused over the condition required, but it fits.
For several years, I've sat and looked at how Hartz IV (welfare) works in Germany and been amazed at the nature of long-term unemployed. Generally, you have three groups of people. You have the first group of people who are terminated from a job and have a full-year of unemployment. Maybe the company downsized....maybe the gal was always late for work....maybe it was a bad-attitude with customers....maybe they just would not take orders. So the government has a fund to cover this one-year group of unemployed. They aren't on welfare, at least at this point.
The second group is usually the older guy, who has two years of unemployment compensation. If over the age of fifty....this group has more issues in getting work, and may have more of a label of unable to accept change.
Then the third group exists....those from group one and two, who are long-term unemployed. Back around 2005/2006, there might have been five to six percent of the German work-force considered long-term unemployed. Today, if you use Tradingeconomics.com's data......it's near 1.5 percent of the work force.
The bothersome part of this deal is that you have more and more young people who get tossed out the door....in their early 20's and don't get aggressive to find work, or accept work.
The other trend which gets talked about by German business analysts is that the unemployment is different from state to state in Germany (16 states). In the northwest, it's hefty. In Bavaria, it's near 2.5-percent in a number of cities. They (the Bavarians) are literally begging for workers.
A program to move people from a high-unemployment area to a low-unemployment area? It doesn't exist. You would think that some HR-like folks would be working for the government....find fifty long-term unemployed folks in some community with real potential, and toss 5,000 Euro at moving them (their family included) down to Bavaria, and get them set up with an apartment and a job. But no....no such program exists.
As for the CDU idea of pushing people into work? I'll sit back and watch this develop but I have zero confidence that the other parties in the Bundestag will go along with something like this. They'd prefer some kind of universal income deal.....where work of value....isn't the productive reason to get the income.
The new strategy quietly discussed by the party? The idea to push people under the age of fifty who are on social welfare (Hartz IV) out, and lead them to employment. (Hint: push is a good word in this case).
Why? Well....just about everyone in the business community will admit now that the trend for skilled workers is downward, and expected to continue that direction. The idea is that if you are between 18 and 50....sitting at home and whining about Hartz IV is not helping the business community.
One aspect of this long-term unemployed deal is that so many of these people don't have a certificate or real skill area.
They aren't clear on how you'd 'force' a guy to go....apply....and accept work, period. The carrot here on the stick appears that you just wouldn't get any welfare pay, but I don't know how you'd pass that via the Bundestag (the SPD folks, and the Linke Party would stand against it).
Yeah, it would become some sort of conditional basic universal income deal in a way.....where you get paid, for work. One can be amused over the condition required, but it fits.
For several years, I've sat and looked at how Hartz IV (welfare) works in Germany and been amazed at the nature of long-term unemployed. Generally, you have three groups of people. You have the first group of people who are terminated from a job and have a full-year of unemployment. Maybe the company downsized....maybe the gal was always late for work....maybe it was a bad-attitude with customers....maybe they just would not take orders. So the government has a fund to cover this one-year group of unemployed. They aren't on welfare, at least at this point.
The second group is usually the older guy, who has two years of unemployment compensation. If over the age of fifty....this group has more issues in getting work, and may have more of a label of unable to accept change.
Then the third group exists....those from group one and two, who are long-term unemployed. Back around 2005/2006, there might have been five to six percent of the German work-force considered long-term unemployed. Today, if you use Tradingeconomics.com's data......it's near 1.5 percent of the work force.
The bothersome part of this deal is that you have more and more young people who get tossed out the door....in their early 20's and don't get aggressive to find work, or accept work.
The other trend which gets talked about by German business analysts is that the unemployment is different from state to state in Germany (16 states). In the northwest, it's hefty. In Bavaria, it's near 2.5-percent in a number of cities. They (the Bavarians) are literally begging for workers.
A program to move people from a high-unemployment area to a low-unemployment area? It doesn't exist. You would think that some HR-like folks would be working for the government....find fifty long-term unemployed folks in some community with real potential, and toss 5,000 Euro at moving them (their family included) down to Bavaria, and get them set up with an apartment and a job. But no....no such program exists.
As for the CDU idea of pushing people into work? I'll sit back and watch this develop but I have zero confidence that the other parties in the Bundestag will go along with something like this. They'd prefer some kind of universal income deal.....where work of value....isn't the productive reason to get the income.
Cop Story Today
German cops swarmed out this morning across a good bit of northwestern Germany. Focus, the German news magazine, tells part of the story.
For months, there's been suggestive comments of fake people getting social welfare in the northwest. Well....the cops gop up positions around Duisburg, Gelsenkirchen, Hagen and Essen today.
The comment made is that various people are taking unlawful receipt of social welfare. So the cops are there to examine each individual, their job, their social condition and the network around these people. Most of these are set to some mini-job deal (450 Euro max) and the government has to cover the rest of their monthly coverage. I'm taking a guess, but they are probably working longer hours more than the mini-job situation allows, but getting the full-scale deal when you add up the mini-job pay and the government-welfare....thus being a full-time asset instead of what the mini-job deal allows for.
The comment made in the news item (short in nature), there's a strong belief that the financial draw on this fake angle....is significant.
One curious piece of the story with limited commentary.....the suspicion that landlords are inflating the rent to lay claim on the social welfare system to pay more than the property is worth. It's an interesting topic, if proven true.
If arrests occur? That's the thing about this story.....you don't know if any arrests will occur, or if any real number of people are shown the front-door to leave. The suggestion here is that 6,000 individuals might be involved in the fraud. The question would be....if these folks leave....will this open up the door for unemployed Germans to apply and get work? It'd be an interesting angle if this is the final result in this one single region.
For months, there's been suggestive comments of fake people getting social welfare in the northwest. Well....the cops gop up positions around Duisburg, Gelsenkirchen, Hagen and Essen today.
The comment made is that various people are taking unlawful receipt of social welfare. So the cops are there to examine each individual, their job, their social condition and the network around these people. Most of these are set to some mini-job deal (450 Euro max) and the government has to cover the rest of their monthly coverage. I'm taking a guess, but they are probably working longer hours more than the mini-job situation allows, but getting the full-scale deal when you add up the mini-job pay and the government-welfare....thus being a full-time asset instead of what the mini-job deal allows for.
The comment made in the news item (short in nature), there's a strong belief that the financial draw on this fake angle....is significant.
One curious piece of the story with limited commentary.....the suspicion that landlords are inflating the rent to lay claim on the social welfare system to pay more than the property is worth. It's an interesting topic, if proven true.
If arrests occur? That's the thing about this story.....you don't know if any arrests will occur, or if any real number of people are shown the front-door to leave. The suggestion here is that 6,000 individuals might be involved in the fraud. The question would be....if these folks leave....will this open up the door for unemployed Germans to apply and get work? It'd be an interesting angle if this is the final result in this one single region.
A Frankfurt Street Story
For those who might have been stationed or traveled around Frankfurt in the 1960/1970/1980s.....you probably remember the street that ran along the north end of the Rhine River....east-west.....from the A44 Autobahn exit to the B43 'Alterbrucke' (the old bridge).....noted locally as Mainkal or Untermainkal Strasse.
It was the four-lane that carried a fair amount of traffic along the river, and was right next to city park along the river.....opposite the Sachsenhausen 'pub-district'.
Well....the Frankfurt City Council decided that for the entire summer of 2019.....that street will be shut down for an experiment.
Still being discussed....if pub stalls or food trailers will be allowed, or if's simply a 'quiet' street with only walkers or bicyclists allowed. The neighborhood groups, along with the Green Party/SPD Party group.....are hyped for a quiet atmosphere. Others around the city want this as a party-district for one long summer.
I sat and paused over this. In 1978/1979....I lived in the shadow of Frankfurt and remember this street-park along the river. In the summer period....a lot of people hung out there on weekends.
The curious thing I see with this 'experiment'.....you had easily 10,000 cars a day that traveled this 2-km street area. So by closing off this 'path'.....where are the 10,000 cars going to travel? Yeah....you just created a street which had limited traffic before....but will have triple or quadruple traffic compared to now. You can anticipate the anger and hostility brewing just a month into the 'experiment'.
And the idea of beer-wagons or little temp pubs being temporarily set up? I can guarantee you that the locals on that street will absolutely forbid that idea.
I won't label it a failed 'experiment', but I doubt that they ever repeat this again.
It was the four-lane that carried a fair amount of traffic along the river, and was right next to city park along the river.....opposite the Sachsenhausen 'pub-district'.
Well....the Frankfurt City Council decided that for the entire summer of 2019.....that street will be shut down for an experiment.
Still being discussed....if pub stalls or food trailers will be allowed, or if's simply a 'quiet' street with only walkers or bicyclists allowed. The neighborhood groups, along with the Green Party/SPD Party group.....are hyped for a quiet atmosphere. Others around the city want this as a party-district for one long summer.
I sat and paused over this. In 1978/1979....I lived in the shadow of Frankfurt and remember this street-park along the river. In the summer period....a lot of people hung out there on weekends.
The curious thing I see with this 'experiment'.....you had easily 10,000 cars a day that traveled this 2-km street area. So by closing off this 'path'.....where are the 10,000 cars going to travel? Yeah....you just created a street which had limited traffic before....but will have triple or quadruple traffic compared to now. You can anticipate the anger and hostility brewing just a month into the 'experiment'.
And the idea of beer-wagons or little temp pubs being temporarily set up? I can guarantee you that the locals on that street will absolutely forbid that idea.
I won't label it a failed 'experiment', but I doubt that they ever repeat this again.
Wednesday, April 25, 2018
The Juvenile Law
For a number of months, I've essayed over the growing German chatter for some type of age-check for incoming migrants/refugees. ARD, the public TV network in Germany (Channel One), wrote up a piece over a development from yesterday.
So to kinda lay out the background to this.....Germany has a law that says anyone who walks across the border and asks for asylum/immigration chances....MUST be accepted for an evaluation. It doesn't guarantee asylum or immigration....just that paperwork will be generated and months will pass....where an approval or disapproval will occur.
Then you come to a second rule (unrelated to rule one that I mentioned) which says that if you are a juvenile (alone of course) migrant or immigrant....asking for status....then you get the same application, with a highly approved opportunity. In general....juvenile applicants just don't fail because no one wants to send them back to their original country.
Over the past four years (not just in Germany but around Europe), there's this trend that started up....guys mostly of a immigrant or migrant fashion....arriving and stating that they are juveniles. The old attitude of the Germans (and most European societies) was to just accept them at their word if they said they were 15 years old or such. Various episodes have come up to suggest that a bit of lying has occurred, and some folks (unknown number) are fake juveniles. You can sense where this is going.
This became a hot topic, and some political folks (not just the AfD Party) wanted a mandatory test on every single juvenile. Well....some doctors stepped up and said they'd refuse such an order.....or they'd only do it if the juvenile was charged in some crime.
Some doctors have come out to suggest the test that is often used in the aging prediction....isn't reliable. Some doctors have countered and said it's fairly reliable (within one to two years).
What the news folks report today is that a coalition deal has been worked up by the CDU and SPD parties, with enough votes to make a new law.
There's some stumbling blocks here though. The cities, who often run the shelter and processing angles to migration....say they absolutely will not take charge of this ageing test deal. This dumping act where the German federal government basically tossed all requirements onto the cities has been long discussed, and I wouldn't blame the cities for their attitude.
The youth welfare folks? They don't want the job.
So everyone is looking back at the very beginning of this cycle....where the juvenile walks into the country and gets sent to the very first introduction-center. This would make sense, but you'd have to settle on the idea that this juvenile might be sitting there for a number of weeks while this test is applied and completed. I have my doubts that this is a simple 48-hour type test that you can perform and turn around.
As for the current group of juveniles in the country? My guess is that the law will find some federal agency and just task them to go and perform a test on every single migrant juvenile....then someone will host a court challenge, and drag this off to a one-year delay while the court system discusses if this is legal or not.
The numbers here for the fake juveniles? It's a total unknown. It might be one-percent....it might be fifty-percent.
The curious thing will be what happens in eighteen months when statistics are dragged out, and you come to find that maybe one in three of the juveniles were fake (I'm only suggesting the 33-percent number). A fair number of Germans will have heartburn over this, and suggest that 'more fixing' is required because they were taken advantaged of or played for some fool.
The one classic case that came up in the Freiburg murder case recently, where a young migrant was the party that the cops focused upon. The young guy claimed he was seventeen.....his father said that the 'kid' was probably closer to 30/31 years old. The court's test concluded the 'kid' was at least 20, so adult charges was the direction that they were going to go. In the Freiburg community, it's safe to say that locals are hyped up about the juvenile age business.
Is this whole topic a top twenty issue? No....but there are dozens of problems now brewing over migration and the way it was handled since 2013. The coalition government has roughly 3.5 years before the next election, and both parties (CDU and SPD) need to focus repairs and positive actions to recover from this 2017 lackluster win. Settling the youth issue and assuring the public over the age question would help.
So to kinda lay out the background to this.....Germany has a law that says anyone who walks across the border and asks for asylum/immigration chances....MUST be accepted for an evaluation. It doesn't guarantee asylum or immigration....just that paperwork will be generated and months will pass....where an approval or disapproval will occur.
Then you come to a second rule (unrelated to rule one that I mentioned) which says that if you are a juvenile (alone of course) migrant or immigrant....asking for status....then you get the same application, with a highly approved opportunity. In general....juvenile applicants just don't fail because no one wants to send them back to their original country.
Over the past four years (not just in Germany but around Europe), there's this trend that started up....guys mostly of a immigrant or migrant fashion....arriving and stating that they are juveniles. The old attitude of the Germans (and most European societies) was to just accept them at their word if they said they were 15 years old or such. Various episodes have come up to suggest that a bit of lying has occurred, and some folks (unknown number) are fake juveniles. You can sense where this is going.
This became a hot topic, and some political folks (not just the AfD Party) wanted a mandatory test on every single juvenile. Well....some doctors stepped up and said they'd refuse such an order.....or they'd only do it if the juvenile was charged in some crime.
Some doctors have come out to suggest the test that is often used in the aging prediction....isn't reliable. Some doctors have countered and said it's fairly reliable (within one to two years).
What the news folks report today is that a coalition deal has been worked up by the CDU and SPD parties, with enough votes to make a new law.
There's some stumbling blocks here though. The cities, who often run the shelter and processing angles to migration....say they absolutely will not take charge of this ageing test deal. This dumping act where the German federal government basically tossed all requirements onto the cities has been long discussed, and I wouldn't blame the cities for their attitude.
The youth welfare folks? They don't want the job.
So everyone is looking back at the very beginning of this cycle....where the juvenile walks into the country and gets sent to the very first introduction-center. This would make sense, but you'd have to settle on the idea that this juvenile might be sitting there for a number of weeks while this test is applied and completed. I have my doubts that this is a simple 48-hour type test that you can perform and turn around.
As for the current group of juveniles in the country? My guess is that the law will find some federal agency and just task them to go and perform a test on every single migrant juvenile....then someone will host a court challenge, and drag this off to a one-year delay while the court system discusses if this is legal or not.
The numbers here for the fake juveniles? It's a total unknown. It might be one-percent....it might be fifty-percent.
The curious thing will be what happens in eighteen months when statistics are dragged out, and you come to find that maybe one in three of the juveniles were fake (I'm only suggesting the 33-percent number). A fair number of Germans will have heartburn over this, and suggest that 'more fixing' is required because they were taken advantaged of or played for some fool.
The one classic case that came up in the Freiburg murder case recently, where a young migrant was the party that the cops focused upon. The young guy claimed he was seventeen.....his father said that the 'kid' was probably closer to 30/31 years old. The court's test concluded the 'kid' was at least 20, so adult charges was the direction that they were going to go. In the Freiburg community, it's safe to say that locals are hyped up about the juvenile age business.
Is this whole topic a top twenty issue? No....but there are dozens of problems now brewing over migration and the way it was handled since 2013. The coalition government has roughly 3.5 years before the next election, and both parties (CDU and SPD) need to focus repairs and positive actions to recover from this 2017 lackluster win. Settling the youth issue and assuring the public over the age question would help.
ECHO Gone
The German music awards prize....the ECHO...was terminated yesterday. In the entertainment industry of Germany...this was a page-one type story. Focus, the German news magazine covered part of this.
What started this discussion and final act? This year's winners in rap-music....Kollegah and Farid Bang. Their song, released in the last twelve months which had a line that suggested anti-Semitic wording got national notice and got them to the winner's circle. Unfortunately, it led to a chaotic night at the awards.....where a lot of German musicians made it clear that this group was a bad choice to pick for the winner.
A lot of the vote trend has to do with air-time...so that played into this.
The guys who run the awards....said three things were at the heart of the decision.
First, several previous winners had given up their awards and sent them back to the organizers.
Second, public pressure.
Third, internal discussion occurred with the award crew, and their discomfort in going forward for 2019.
So I sit there and ponder upon this discussion.
The history of rap....doesn't matter if you use Germany, the UK, or the US....has often involved lyrics that invoke violence, homophobia, or women (sometimes in a negative light). Rap has been around for forty years, and evolution has occurred....while the topics of songs don't change much.
Will something like the ECHO be developed for 2019? My humble guess is yes. But they will focus strictly on one style of music to prevent rap from coming. The problem here is that the ECHO awards were the one big event where various German musicians could gather, chat, party, and mingle. In some ways, you need an event like this.
Will the stations now hinder rap music from play-time? No one says that. But there's been so much negativity dragged up over the topics I mentioned....that I can't see this open-door continuing. Someone will likely make an accusation of less play-time and then some other scandal will start up.
How big was the rap scene in Germany? That's an open question. You can't cite legit numbers. A lot of the rap community have connections to Turk-Germans. Most of the big names in German rap....are Turk-Germans.
So you come to the final question.....will rappers now suggest that the German music crowd are behaving in a childish way? My guess is that a rap or two will come out....to suggest this. The crowd might decide to have their own awards, and broadcast via the internet (no public or commercial TV network would touch this at present).
My final observation....this was a moral call by the ECHO management crowd, and no one will fault them. But oddly, rap has been often vulgar and treading on thin ice in Germany for over twenty years....and just now, there's enough hype and moral backbone to make this move? That's the funny part to this story.
What started this discussion and final act? This year's winners in rap-music....Kollegah and Farid Bang. Their song, released in the last twelve months which had a line that suggested anti-Semitic wording got national notice and got them to the winner's circle. Unfortunately, it led to a chaotic night at the awards.....where a lot of German musicians made it clear that this group was a bad choice to pick for the winner.
A lot of the vote trend has to do with air-time...so that played into this.
The guys who run the awards....said three things were at the heart of the decision.
First, several previous winners had given up their awards and sent them back to the organizers.
Second, public pressure.
Third, internal discussion occurred with the award crew, and their discomfort in going forward for 2019.
So I sit there and ponder upon this discussion.
The history of rap....doesn't matter if you use Germany, the UK, or the US....has often involved lyrics that invoke violence, homophobia, or women (sometimes in a negative light). Rap has been around for forty years, and evolution has occurred....while the topics of songs don't change much.
Will something like the ECHO be developed for 2019? My humble guess is yes. But they will focus strictly on one style of music to prevent rap from coming. The problem here is that the ECHO awards were the one big event where various German musicians could gather, chat, party, and mingle. In some ways, you need an event like this.
Will the stations now hinder rap music from play-time? No one says that. But there's been so much negativity dragged up over the topics I mentioned....that I can't see this open-door continuing. Someone will likely make an accusation of less play-time and then some other scandal will start up.
How big was the rap scene in Germany? That's an open question. You can't cite legit numbers. A lot of the rap community have connections to Turk-Germans. Most of the big names in German rap....are Turk-Germans.
So you come to the final question.....will rappers now suggest that the German music crowd are behaving in a childish way? My guess is that a rap or two will come out....to suggest this. The crowd might decide to have their own awards, and broadcast via the internet (no public or commercial TV network would touch this at present).
My final observation....this was a moral call by the ECHO management crowd, and no one will fault them. But oddly, rap has been often vulgar and treading on thin ice in Germany for over twenty years....and just now, there's enough hype and moral backbone to make this move? That's the funny part to this story.
Germans and Depression
Around three or four times a year....I will come to see some footnote on the German news or in some German newspaper, which hypes up the issue with Germans and the state of depression with folks.
Around a decade ago, there was a medical survey by the Barmer GEK health insurance folks here in Germany. They chatted about the continuing trend with mental illness, depression and schizophrenia with Germans. Since they were 'holders' of the money.....they cared about the increasing days spent by people in hospital beds.
Their numbers then (remember, this was a decade ago) was around 500 days in the hospital per 10,000 people for depression.
Schizophrenia followed with just over 500 days a year.
Part of this story, as I remember it.....folks in either category...typically had a minimum of 30 consecutive days in the hospital.
The WHO folks went and did a study....strictly over Germans, and revealed that one in ten has at least one episode in life that required a hospital stay. In their study, they even came to say that 15,000 will attempt suicide in a normal year. You have to remember though....this is out of a 82-million population. But the one key thing they briefly chatted upon, which surprised me.....is that roughly 7-million Germans are thought to suffer from anxiety and panic attacks.
My German father-in-law (passed on over 20 years ago) revealed toward the last five of his years that he suffered from this. The German mother-in-law (passed on over 35 years) had serious depression and apparent panic attacks. The German brother-in-law (passed on four years ago) had panic attacks and anxiety issues. Gene-wise, it would suggest that it's pretty well coded into the DNA.
So the hype with Germans and depression and anxiety/panic attacks? I'm not a medical wiz, nor do I sit and read over hundreds of medical journals yearly (I will admit that I probably read sixty medical articles monthly, mostly because things of the medical discussion that interest me). But I do tend to sit and observe Germans and view cultural landscapes. So I'll offer four observations:
1. This winter long darkness period does play a role in the shaping of depression and anxiety with Germans. There's not much doubt about the sequence, and the more 'cheerful' nature of Germans in spring and summer months.
2. From school age on up.....there's peer pressure to perform. You need to reach X-level. If you don't.....you get left behind. If you can't meet the standardized tests, or the requirements required....no problem, you aren't going with the crowd. For a lot of people, it's a hard thing to accept, and it's stressful for folks to fit into this 'lagger' role.
3. Folks don't move. Go chat with a dozen Germans, and ask where they grew up, and where they live as adults. Don't be surprised if 50-percent say they live now at age thirty-five....within twenty miles of where they grew up. Accepting some dramatic move, or a big challenge with a new company 300 miles away from your 'established' territory.....is something that people don't typically accept.
4. That five to six weeks of vacation a year? It's a fairly expected thing because Germans will tell you...in blunt words.....they really need a week off here, or two weeks off there. They build this pressure up and this leave period, as far as they are concerned.....is the only safety valve that they have. When it comes up in conversation that Americans rarely get more than two weeks of leave a year....the German typically sits amazed.
The 'Kur'? Well....this plays into this whole depression situation as well. At the point where a mental breakdown is discussed by your doctor.....this is typically the solution that health insurance folks will approve, if the doctor recommends it.....30 days at some hotel deal with relaxation built into the daily structure. Go and ask your local German to detail the hype and how it works with the Kur.
A major topic with all this depression stuff? No. I don't think that 90-percent of Germans really care to discuss the matter or their issues. They are the 'hold-it'in' type crowd. On the list of a hundred things NOT to bring up with your German buddies at the pub? Yeah, this would be on the forbidden list as far as Germans are concerned.
Around a decade ago, there was a medical survey by the Barmer GEK health insurance folks here in Germany. They chatted about the continuing trend with mental illness, depression and schizophrenia with Germans. Since they were 'holders' of the money.....they cared about the increasing days spent by people in hospital beds.
Their numbers then (remember, this was a decade ago) was around 500 days in the hospital per 10,000 people for depression.
Schizophrenia followed with just over 500 days a year.
Part of this story, as I remember it.....folks in either category...typically had a minimum of 30 consecutive days in the hospital.
The WHO folks went and did a study....strictly over Germans, and revealed that one in ten has at least one episode in life that required a hospital stay. In their study, they even came to say that 15,000 will attempt suicide in a normal year. You have to remember though....this is out of a 82-million population. But the one key thing they briefly chatted upon, which surprised me.....is that roughly 7-million Germans are thought to suffer from anxiety and panic attacks.
My German father-in-law (passed on over 20 years ago) revealed toward the last five of his years that he suffered from this. The German mother-in-law (passed on over 35 years) had serious depression and apparent panic attacks. The German brother-in-law (passed on four years ago) had panic attacks and anxiety issues. Gene-wise, it would suggest that it's pretty well coded into the DNA.
So the hype with Germans and depression and anxiety/panic attacks? I'm not a medical wiz, nor do I sit and read over hundreds of medical journals yearly (I will admit that I probably read sixty medical articles monthly, mostly because things of the medical discussion that interest me). But I do tend to sit and observe Germans and view cultural landscapes. So I'll offer four observations:
1. This winter long darkness period does play a role in the shaping of depression and anxiety with Germans. There's not much doubt about the sequence, and the more 'cheerful' nature of Germans in spring and summer months.
2. From school age on up.....there's peer pressure to perform. You need to reach X-level. If you don't.....you get left behind. If you can't meet the standardized tests, or the requirements required....no problem, you aren't going with the crowd. For a lot of people, it's a hard thing to accept, and it's stressful for folks to fit into this 'lagger' role.
3. Folks don't move. Go chat with a dozen Germans, and ask where they grew up, and where they live as adults. Don't be surprised if 50-percent say they live now at age thirty-five....within twenty miles of where they grew up. Accepting some dramatic move, or a big challenge with a new company 300 miles away from your 'established' territory.....is something that people don't typically accept.
4. That five to six weeks of vacation a year? It's a fairly expected thing because Germans will tell you...in blunt words.....they really need a week off here, or two weeks off there. They build this pressure up and this leave period, as far as they are concerned.....is the only safety valve that they have. When it comes up in conversation that Americans rarely get more than two weeks of leave a year....the German typically sits amazed.
The 'Kur'? Well....this plays into this whole depression situation as well. At the point where a mental breakdown is discussed by your doctor.....this is typically the solution that health insurance folks will approve, if the doctor recommends it.....30 days at some hotel deal with relaxation built into the daily structure. Go and ask your local German to detail the hype and how it works with the Kur.
A major topic with all this depression stuff? No. I don't think that 90-percent of Germans really care to discuss the matter or their issues. They are the 'hold-it'in' type crowd. On the list of a hundred things NOT to bring up with your German buddies at the pub? Yeah, this would be on the forbidden list as far as Germans are concerned.
1919-to-1938: The Path Years to WW II
I came to a conclusion about thirty years ago that the various explanations given by text books and college professors in explaining the 'path years' to WW II was inadequate. In fact, the explanation for WW I, in most cases....was dismal. Then I came to read around over the various conflicts of the 1800s with Germany and France....coming to a conclusion that I really needed more details. The text-book folks and the general historians weren't really filling in the gaps.
So I divided the topics into four pieces, and spent much of a decade reading and surveying history.
The four pieces?
1. The Roman era.
2. The Catholic Church era, ending at the conclusion of the Thirty Years War
3. Kaiser Wilhelm I/II, Prussia, the 1800s wars
4. Something I would describe as the 'Path Years', covering 1919 to 1938, the Weimar Republic, and the chaos in Munich (youthful Hitler period). This is the essay piece to discuss that period.
I often center a fair dialog on the 'Path Years' because a handful of things could have gone totally in a different way, and zeroed out the potential for 1938 to 1945.
As WW I came to a close....three dramatic things fell into play. The Kaiser was exited out of the picture. A weak marginalized Weimar Republic was the solution without the Kaiser. With reparations owed to France and England....the economy was basically screwed up for the next five years. These three pieces really open up a vast door for political chaos.
Adding to this environment....by unleashing the Communist change in Russia, there was a new fear confronting Germans...a Communist revolution on their front-door step. Trade unions? They were identified as potential threats. The soldiers who'd returned from WW I with their weapons? It's rarely mentioned but the Weimar Republic labeled this as a major problem and set up various weapon regulations (way ahead of the Nazis).
As for the economic rebuilding process? It would come, but only after a couple of years of personal suffering for Germans across of society.
The fact that 2-million German men didn't return from the war? It was a dramatic point and weighed upon society. Blame got shifted around over their demise. You can find small villages in the middle of rural Germany today, with monuments in the local cemetery to note the local guys who didn't come back. The Germans had not had a war like this, with serious death-counts for over a hundred years.
At the end of this first couple of years after WW I....the suggestion of who had real money after the war ended....would be wrongly suggested as the Jews. The beginning of Holocaust event? I would suggest going back to 1098 (read up on Speyer and the Catholic Church) and examine the significant number of attacks by Germans on Jews over a period here. This period starting in 1938....was really the second Holocaust period (my humble opinion).
So these pieces started to come together. Enter the Hitler-character. A corporal of Austrian citizenship servicing in the German Army....dismissed....showing back up in Munich. His buddies from the old unit were connected to the German police of Munich. He asked for work, and their offer was to serve in the secret police....to monitor a small political party....the Nationalists Socialists. So begins the brief career of 'agent' Hitler.
He shows up at the first meeting....sips beer with the guys, chats around with them and gives them his personal view. They like his chat, and he's invited at the next monthly meeting to give a 'presentation'. No historian ever goes back to this moment, and how he explained this to the secret police handlers. Maybe they were pleased. Maybe they were questioning where this would lead onto. But you just don't know.
The speech there in the basement of the Hofbrau Haus? It went well, and drummed up a lot of support. They asked Hitler to come back to the next month's meeting, and they'd get the bigger hall up on the ground level (an impressive area, I've been there). There, he delivers speech number two, and at this point....the Nazis realize he's the dynamic person they needed to front the organization.
Over the next two years, if you go and reflect upon Italian events.....Mussolini is continually in the news, and by the fall of 1922....he's the Prime Minister of Italy. By the summer of 1923, the pro-Hitler focus is aimed at some type of repeat of Mussolini-style government change. So the Beer Hall Putsch falls into play on 8/9 November 1923. The government of Bavaria will realize the threat of Hitler and rush to arrest him, and figure some time in jail will cool him off. They guessed wrong.
The five-year sentence for Hitler? He actually walked out of prison after eight months. Few people realize the missing four years. If they'd kept him there....the Nazi Party would have stumbled and eventually collapsed.
The German national election of 1930? It's a lousy win for the SPD....getting 24.5-percent of the vote. There are eleven parties which get 2-percent or more in this election. The fractured nature of the Bundestag is such....that it's weakened the core. The Nazis, with Hitler take 18-percent of the national vote. To build a coalition, the SPD has no choice....they can't deal with the Communist Party....so the Hitler group is the only real choice.
From that point, the Bundestag....whether they were anti-Hitler or aware of the threat....had no choice but to entertain the political party as a national trend.
The chief selling stance of the Nazi group? Well....talk about losing WW I (blame toward the French and British)....talk over socialized things that can be delivered (via taxation)....and be proud to be a German. With newspapers, radio and speeches....the proudness angle was a major part of the message to the public.
How did Austrian Hitler get around the citizenship thing? It's a little rule written into the Bavarian Constitution at the time....if you are a cop from Austria (even just for one day)....you qualify for Bavarian residency and thus German citizenship. It's laughable today, but it was the short path to being a German in the 1930s.
March 1933 was the last real open party election in Germany. Few today will grasp that. Hitler's group did win, but only with 33-percent of the national vote. No, it was not overwhelming.
The election in November of 1933 basically finishes off all opposition. The only party to vote for? The Nazis. Anyone sitting in Germany by the fall of 1933....would come to realize that they've opened up a Pandora's Box. It can't be closed now. They are stuck with the results.
Five years will pass with the new style government, and then the first real military action will occur....the invasion into the Sudetenland. It will take ten days....ending on 10 October. A festive national trend starts up....finally something to be happy about since 1919.
It was a nineteen year waiting period for the grief of losing WW I. Things were back on track.....at least in the minds who were frustrated over the loss.
So I divided the topics into four pieces, and spent much of a decade reading and surveying history.
The four pieces?
1. The Roman era.
2. The Catholic Church era, ending at the conclusion of the Thirty Years War
3. Kaiser Wilhelm I/II, Prussia, the 1800s wars
4. Something I would describe as the 'Path Years', covering 1919 to 1938, the Weimar Republic, and the chaos in Munich (youthful Hitler period). This is the essay piece to discuss that period.
I often center a fair dialog on the 'Path Years' because a handful of things could have gone totally in a different way, and zeroed out the potential for 1938 to 1945.
As WW I came to a close....three dramatic things fell into play. The Kaiser was exited out of the picture. A weak marginalized Weimar Republic was the solution without the Kaiser. With reparations owed to France and England....the economy was basically screwed up for the next five years. These three pieces really open up a vast door for political chaos.
Adding to this environment....by unleashing the Communist change in Russia, there was a new fear confronting Germans...a Communist revolution on their front-door step. Trade unions? They were identified as potential threats. The soldiers who'd returned from WW I with their weapons? It's rarely mentioned but the Weimar Republic labeled this as a major problem and set up various weapon regulations (way ahead of the Nazis).
As for the economic rebuilding process? It would come, but only after a couple of years of personal suffering for Germans across of society.
The fact that 2-million German men didn't return from the war? It was a dramatic point and weighed upon society. Blame got shifted around over their demise. You can find small villages in the middle of rural Germany today, with monuments in the local cemetery to note the local guys who didn't come back. The Germans had not had a war like this, with serious death-counts for over a hundred years.
At the end of this first couple of years after WW I....the suggestion of who had real money after the war ended....would be wrongly suggested as the Jews. The beginning of Holocaust event? I would suggest going back to 1098 (read up on Speyer and the Catholic Church) and examine the significant number of attacks by Germans on Jews over a period here. This period starting in 1938....was really the second Holocaust period (my humble opinion).
So these pieces started to come together. Enter the Hitler-character. A corporal of Austrian citizenship servicing in the German Army....dismissed....showing back up in Munich. His buddies from the old unit were connected to the German police of Munich. He asked for work, and their offer was to serve in the secret police....to monitor a small political party....the Nationalists Socialists. So begins the brief career of 'agent' Hitler.
He shows up at the first meeting....sips beer with the guys, chats around with them and gives them his personal view. They like his chat, and he's invited at the next monthly meeting to give a 'presentation'. No historian ever goes back to this moment, and how he explained this to the secret police handlers. Maybe they were pleased. Maybe they were questioning where this would lead onto. But you just don't know.
The speech there in the basement of the Hofbrau Haus? It went well, and drummed up a lot of support. They asked Hitler to come back to the next month's meeting, and they'd get the bigger hall up on the ground level (an impressive area, I've been there). There, he delivers speech number two, and at this point....the Nazis realize he's the dynamic person they needed to front the organization.
Over the next two years, if you go and reflect upon Italian events.....Mussolini is continually in the news, and by the fall of 1922....he's the Prime Minister of Italy. By the summer of 1923, the pro-Hitler focus is aimed at some type of repeat of Mussolini-style government change. So the Beer Hall Putsch falls into play on 8/9 November 1923. The government of Bavaria will realize the threat of Hitler and rush to arrest him, and figure some time in jail will cool him off. They guessed wrong.
The five-year sentence for Hitler? He actually walked out of prison after eight months. Few people realize the missing four years. If they'd kept him there....the Nazi Party would have stumbled and eventually collapsed.
The German national election of 1930? It's a lousy win for the SPD....getting 24.5-percent of the vote. There are eleven parties which get 2-percent or more in this election. The fractured nature of the Bundestag is such....that it's weakened the core. The Nazis, with Hitler take 18-percent of the national vote. To build a coalition, the SPD has no choice....they can't deal with the Communist Party....so the Hitler group is the only real choice.
From that point, the Bundestag....whether they were anti-Hitler or aware of the threat....had no choice but to entertain the political party as a national trend.
The chief selling stance of the Nazi group? Well....talk about losing WW I (blame toward the French and British)....talk over socialized things that can be delivered (via taxation)....and be proud to be a German. With newspapers, radio and speeches....the proudness angle was a major part of the message to the public.
How did Austrian Hitler get around the citizenship thing? It's a little rule written into the Bavarian Constitution at the time....if you are a cop from Austria (even just for one day)....you qualify for Bavarian residency and thus German citizenship. It's laughable today, but it was the short path to being a German in the 1930s.
March 1933 was the last real open party election in Germany. Few today will grasp that. Hitler's group did win, but only with 33-percent of the national vote. No, it was not overwhelming.
The election in November of 1933 basically finishes off all opposition. The only party to vote for? The Nazis. Anyone sitting in Germany by the fall of 1933....would come to realize that they've opened up a Pandora's Box. It can't be closed now. They are stuck with the results.
Five years will pass with the new style government, and then the first real military action will occur....the invasion into the Sudetenland. It will take ten days....ending on 10 October. A festive national trend starts up....finally something to be happy about since 1919.
It was a nineteen year waiting period for the grief of losing WW I. Things were back on track.....at least in the minds who were frustrated over the loss.
Universal Income Story
A number of months ago....I essayed over a European idea being floated around by various groups.....universal basic income. If you were unemployed or physically/mentally unable to work....there would be an income paid to you...NOT welfare.
So the first country to attempt this, in an experiment....was Finland.
The Finns said in a direct way when it started....it was a test, and 2,000 people from the nation....would be signed up at random, and paid out this deal. There was an age stipulation to it...which I found interesting....between the ages of 25 and 58. They never went into detail why the age situation mattered.
So today....the Finnish government announced that the experiment is finished (done).....at the conclusion of 2018, and it will be ended. It will not be renewed, or lead onto a full-up program.
What happened here to fail it? I've sat and read a dozen different newspapers, the BBC piece on it, and some financial news analyst comments. I've come to three reasons to it's demise:
1. The original concept was unconditional, as the Finn government built it. They reached some conclusion that you have to have conditions (mandates would be a good word). Basically, you need to show some improvement or willing attitude to look for work. I don't think they saw it after the Basic Income deal started with the 2,000.
2. The tax management folks came to some agreement that nationally.....to make the whole thing work....there would have to be a 30-percent increase in the basic tax structure. You can imagine the shock in the room when the experts told the political parties this, and they were like....well....how would you invent twenty-odd taxes to cover this cost?
I paused over this part of the problem. Didn't the experts realize the cost impact back when they started this? I can't imagine starting an experiment without detailing the total cost impact.
3. The good moral instinct is to help these people, and the Basic Universal Allowance idea would have flowed a fair amount of money to the lower-class (often non-working) establishment. I suspect there just weren't that many Finnish people in the category of being extreme good moral type individuals....going to that distance.
I've spent a week in Helsinki back in 2016, and wandered around the city. I would readily agree that it is a fascinating place and has a wide landscape of society. But you tend to notice that Finns aren't happy with beggers or alcoholics on the street. There is some kind of national attitude that makes the culture unique.
As for this being the end of the universal allowance idea? No. There are various groups in Germany which have the idea drafted up and want to freshen it for a new prospective. Fundamentally, they probably deserve the chance. But if you were asking me personally.....a new focus with the Job-Center folks and a whole new approach to getting long-term unemployed back into the work-place....would be a better investment area for tax funding.
So the first country to attempt this, in an experiment....was Finland.
The Finns said in a direct way when it started....it was a test, and 2,000 people from the nation....would be signed up at random, and paid out this deal. There was an age stipulation to it...which I found interesting....between the ages of 25 and 58. They never went into detail why the age situation mattered.
So today....the Finnish government announced that the experiment is finished (done).....at the conclusion of 2018, and it will be ended. It will not be renewed, or lead onto a full-up program.
What happened here to fail it? I've sat and read a dozen different newspapers, the BBC piece on it, and some financial news analyst comments. I've come to three reasons to it's demise:
1. The original concept was unconditional, as the Finn government built it. They reached some conclusion that you have to have conditions (mandates would be a good word). Basically, you need to show some improvement or willing attitude to look for work. I don't think they saw it after the Basic Income deal started with the 2,000.
2. The tax management folks came to some agreement that nationally.....to make the whole thing work....there would have to be a 30-percent increase in the basic tax structure. You can imagine the shock in the room when the experts told the political parties this, and they were like....well....how would you invent twenty-odd taxes to cover this cost?
I paused over this part of the problem. Didn't the experts realize the cost impact back when they started this? I can't imagine starting an experiment without detailing the total cost impact.
3. The good moral instinct is to help these people, and the Basic Universal Allowance idea would have flowed a fair amount of money to the lower-class (often non-working) establishment. I suspect there just weren't that many Finnish people in the category of being extreme good moral type individuals....going to that distance.
I've spent a week in Helsinki back in 2016, and wandered around the city. I would readily agree that it is a fascinating place and has a wide landscape of society. But you tend to notice that Finns aren't happy with beggers or alcoholics on the street. There is some kind of national attitude that makes the culture unique.
As for this being the end of the universal allowance idea? No. There are various groups in Germany which have the idea drafted up and want to freshen it for a new prospective. Fundamentally, they probably deserve the chance. But if you were asking me personally.....a new focus with the Job-Center folks and a whole new approach to getting long-term unemployed back into the work-place....would be a better investment area for tax funding.
Schadenfreude
About thirty years ago (mid-1980s), I had a conversation with a German and the term Schadenfreude came up.
On a list of a thousand German words to remember or memorize....I'd tend to suggest it's not on that list.
Schadenfreude would be defined as a feeling of joy derived from the misfortune of others.
The original German bringing up this topic (in a going-away party at some German gasthaus for a group of Americans and included a couple of Germans) had gotten me into a dialog about odd German behavior.
Americans always demonstrate odd behavior. We are the folks who get all hyper about 'dry counties' and forbidding alcohol consumption. We are also the folks who seem to be willing to go fight (physically) over some college football match-ups. We are also the folks who get overly dramatic over religious presentations. We are also the ones who get all moral in nature...to elect some pure moralistic soul into some office....only to discover months later that the new guy is pretty immoralistic.
So, Schadenfreude came up. It's probably been around for 2,000 years and likely was a big positive thing a thousand years ago as your village noted the misfortune of the village on the other side of the mountain....thus feeling better over your own situation. Through the years, it evolved. Today, it reaches down into personal situations where you might feel Schadenfreude coming up over your neighbor, your co-worker, or some neighborhood guy. 'They got what they deserved' would be the American translation of what has occurred.
Course, a decade would pass after realizing this phrase and meaning.....then I'd come to Mitfreude, which means joy derived from the joy of others. This is where a German would see some great moment of compassion or joy, and just be overjoyed at the luck or accomplishment of your neighbor, friend, or relative.
In the last year, I came to the third version of this....Mitgefuhl....which typically means that you feel sadness that comes from the sadness of others.
Typically, Mitgefuhl and Mitfreude, don't get brought up much. Schadenfreude probably won't be mentioned much by 99-percent of Germans.....just mostly by intellectuals and journalists trying to explain some detail of German culture.
So, if you are sitting in some German cafe or pub, and someone draws you off into a conversation (typically over a beer discussion, travel, weather, politics, or a German promi), and you hear the phrase of Schadenfreude....it's some catch-phrase for a serious dialog situation, and just let the guy/gal talk at length to get something off their list of frustrations. Don't question them over it....just accept the fact that something is bothering them, and this pub-moment has turned into a bit of a confessional situation.
On a list of a thousand German words to remember or memorize....I'd tend to suggest it's not on that list.
Schadenfreude would be defined as a feeling of joy derived from the misfortune of others.
The original German bringing up this topic (in a going-away party at some German gasthaus for a group of Americans and included a couple of Germans) had gotten me into a dialog about odd German behavior.
Americans always demonstrate odd behavior. We are the folks who get all hyper about 'dry counties' and forbidding alcohol consumption. We are also the folks who seem to be willing to go fight (physically) over some college football match-ups. We are also the folks who get overly dramatic over religious presentations. We are also the ones who get all moral in nature...to elect some pure moralistic soul into some office....only to discover months later that the new guy is pretty immoralistic.
So, Schadenfreude came up. It's probably been around for 2,000 years and likely was a big positive thing a thousand years ago as your village noted the misfortune of the village on the other side of the mountain....thus feeling better over your own situation. Through the years, it evolved. Today, it reaches down into personal situations where you might feel Schadenfreude coming up over your neighbor, your co-worker, or some neighborhood guy. 'They got what they deserved' would be the American translation of what has occurred.
Course, a decade would pass after realizing this phrase and meaning.....then I'd come to Mitfreude, which means joy derived from the joy of others. This is where a German would see some great moment of compassion or joy, and just be overjoyed at the luck or accomplishment of your neighbor, friend, or relative.
In the last year, I came to the third version of this....Mitgefuhl....which typically means that you feel sadness that comes from the sadness of others.
Typically, Mitgefuhl and Mitfreude, don't get brought up much. Schadenfreude probably won't be mentioned much by 99-percent of Germans.....just mostly by intellectuals and journalists trying to explain some detail of German culture.
So, if you are sitting in some German cafe or pub, and someone draws you off into a conversation (typically over a beer discussion, travel, weather, politics, or a German promi), and you hear the phrase of Schadenfreude....it's some catch-phrase for a serious dialog situation, and just let the guy/gal talk at length to get something off their list of frustrations. Don't question them over it....just accept the fact that something is bothering them, and this pub-moment has turned into a bit of a confessional situation.
Tuesday, April 24, 2018
2019 German State Elections
There are only two state elections in Germany for 2018 (Hessen and Bavaria). While there is a bit of talk over implications....no one is really discussing 2019. So the German states slated?
1. Brandenburg, Sept 2019
2. Saxony, Aug 2019
3. Thuringia, Sep 2019
What to notice with the three states? All rest in eastern Germany, and would typically have a fair amount of AfD voting coverage....something that they didn't have five years ago during the last state election period for each.
I essayed earlier today about the influence potential of the Linke Party chief Sahra Wagenknecht leaving the party (only a rumor) and starting her political party with a view on limiting migration/immigration.
Most of the Wagenknecht slant over the last eight years as been somewhat left-wing in nature, which might appeal to the residents of the three states, and the limiting numbers to migrants....might appeal to AfD-type voters.
If you wanted to jump-start a newly created party, then it would make sense to start this party toward the spring of 2019, and hype the party as the solution against the AfD, the SPD, the Linke Party, and the Greens.
I would be taking a humble guess here, but such a newly created party....might be able to take 15-to-20 percent of the local vote in each state, and really lessen the affect of the AfD Party....at the expense of the Linke Party, and perhaps the SPD Party.
So it might be worth watching as we enter spring of 2019, and how regional politics start to evolve.
1. Brandenburg, Sept 2019
2. Saxony, Aug 2019
3. Thuringia, Sep 2019
What to notice with the three states? All rest in eastern Germany, and would typically have a fair amount of AfD voting coverage....something that they didn't have five years ago during the last state election period for each.
I essayed earlier today about the influence potential of the Linke Party chief Sahra Wagenknecht leaving the party (only a rumor) and starting her political party with a view on limiting migration/immigration.
Most of the Wagenknecht slant over the last eight years as been somewhat left-wing in nature, which might appeal to the residents of the three states, and the limiting numbers to migrants....might appeal to AfD-type voters.
If you wanted to jump-start a newly created party, then it would make sense to start this party toward the spring of 2019, and hype the party as the solution against the AfD, the SPD, the Linke Party, and the Greens.
I would be taking a humble guess here, but such a newly created party....might be able to take 15-to-20 percent of the local vote in each state, and really lessen the affect of the AfD Party....at the expense of the Linke Party, and perhaps the SPD Party.
So it might be worth watching as we enter spring of 2019, and how regional politics start to evolve.
End of the Missing Scotsman Story
Back in mid-Feb, I essayed a piece about a missing Scottish guy in Hamburg. The basic story here is that this guy (Liam Colgan) had come to Hamburg to party it up with some other guys before his marriage. Somewhere on the evening of 10 Feb, the group lost track of Liam. He disappeared. Folks will agree that he'd had a fair bit of alcohol, and some folks suggested that he banged his head maybe, and just walked away.
A major search went on for weeks around Hamburg. Cops yesterday had the fire department out in a particular area of the harbor, and they ended up finding a corpse. They've ID'ed the body as Liam, although the DNA test is not complete and may be another couple of weeks. What the cops say....based on a best-guess situation.....the body has been in the water for weeks.
The NDR network (public TV from Hamburg) reported most of this story.
His license and personal stuff are still on him....so there's no possibility of being robbed and dumped in the water. My personal guess is that he drank a good bit....wandered around, and ended up falling in the harbor. I suspect that for weeks, the cops have been feeling that the harbor was the likely end of this story. If he'd been walking around....someone would have reported him.
If you'd walked around Hamburg over the past month, you would have noticed thousands of leaflets and posters up.....pictures of Liam. Everybody in the city knew his face and were mindful of the search going on.
How this epic saga ends? The sad thing to the story is that the guy was fixed up to be married within a week or two after this bachelor's weekend out, and his finance is now set to show up to a funeral for a guy who just had a bit too much to drink. It is a fitting story for a Scottish love ballad.
A major search went on for weeks around Hamburg. Cops yesterday had the fire department out in a particular area of the harbor, and they ended up finding a corpse. They've ID'ed the body as Liam, although the DNA test is not complete and may be another couple of weeks. What the cops say....based on a best-guess situation.....the body has been in the water for weeks.
The NDR network (public TV from Hamburg) reported most of this story.
His license and personal stuff are still on him....so there's no possibility of being robbed and dumped in the water. My personal guess is that he drank a good bit....wandered around, and ended up falling in the harbor. I suspect that for weeks, the cops have been feeling that the harbor was the likely end of this story. If he'd been walking around....someone would have reported him.
If you'd walked around Hamburg over the past month, you would have noticed thousands of leaflets and posters up.....pictures of Liam. Everybody in the city knew his face and were mindful of the search going on.
How this epic saga ends? The sad thing to the story is that the guy was fixed up to be married within a week or two after this bachelor's weekend out, and his finance is now set to show up to a funeral for a guy who just had a bit too much to drink. It is a fitting story for a Scottish love ballad.
Wiesbaden and Diesel Cars
My local city....Wiesbaden....will be having an open-citizens forum today, with the mayor and town council in attendance. The chief topic? Diesel cars and their approaching agenda. The meeting promises to be explosive (my humble opinion).
The general promise by the political establishment (run primarily by the SPD Party and Greens)...is that they will ban diesel cars from operating in Wiesbaden in the future. No one is saying 2018.....no one says even 2019. The threat is simply there.
I sat and read through their info package for the meeting. They admit, with a city population of 285,000.....they have 47,000 diesel cars registered within the city limits to locals. They have no idea how many non-Wiesbaden folks drive into the city daily with diesel cars.
To paint out the landscape here.....going beyond the diesel talk....there is the city agenda being openly discussed...."WIsozial2030".
WIsozial2030 is about a long-term plan to make the city into an area where you don't require a car. You get up in the local neighborhood, easily finding a battery-powered bus making it's rounds every ten to fifteen minutes. You have trams covering various parts of the city. Bicycle paths are existing. Public structure is such....that you'd shed tears over all this wonderful effort. Well....that's the general idea. Part of this gimmick is the law in effect that by 2030, you can't buy new gas or diesel cars. A fair number of environmental Germans have this idea that life will change after 2030.
While I think this evening's presentation will try to show wiozial2030 in a positive light....the discussion over immediately banning diesel cars (by the end of 2018), probably won't go in a positive way.
There are 47,000 owners of diesel cars in the city, who transit out.....some going to Frankfurt.....some to various locations an hour away. They don't want hindrances to their travels. The folks who travel into the city? Same story.
My humble guess is that they will come to realize the only real ban they can achieve....is one or two avenues into the city being listed as non-diesel streets. Course, the hype here is that if you force everyone off those streets.....then the numbers increase on the alternate avenues to be used now for diesel travel. The bureaucrats will come up in a year or two.....put up more testing stations to discover the higher numbers on those streets, and then offer more banned streets. All of this will lead onto companies and businesses actively talking about moving out of the city over the next decade.
Oddly, they've picked a location for the dialog over on the west end of Wiesbaden, which has a sort of reputation (it's not a no-go area, but you would sit and question the choice here).
The general promise by the political establishment (run primarily by the SPD Party and Greens)...is that they will ban diesel cars from operating in Wiesbaden in the future. No one is saying 2018.....no one says even 2019. The threat is simply there.
I sat and read through their info package for the meeting. They admit, with a city population of 285,000.....they have 47,000 diesel cars registered within the city limits to locals. They have no idea how many non-Wiesbaden folks drive into the city daily with diesel cars.
To paint out the landscape here.....going beyond the diesel talk....there is the city agenda being openly discussed...."WIsozial2030".
WIsozial2030 is about a long-term plan to make the city into an area where you don't require a car. You get up in the local neighborhood, easily finding a battery-powered bus making it's rounds every ten to fifteen minutes. You have trams covering various parts of the city. Bicycle paths are existing. Public structure is such....that you'd shed tears over all this wonderful effort. Well....that's the general idea. Part of this gimmick is the law in effect that by 2030, you can't buy new gas or diesel cars. A fair number of environmental Germans have this idea that life will change after 2030.
While I think this evening's presentation will try to show wiozial2030 in a positive light....the discussion over immediately banning diesel cars (by the end of 2018), probably won't go in a positive way.
There are 47,000 owners of diesel cars in the city, who transit out.....some going to Frankfurt.....some to various locations an hour away. They don't want hindrances to their travels. The folks who travel into the city? Same story.
My humble guess is that they will come to realize the only real ban they can achieve....is one or two avenues into the city being listed as non-diesel streets. Course, the hype here is that if you force everyone off those streets.....then the numbers increase on the alternate avenues to be used now for diesel travel. The bureaucrats will come up in a year or two.....put up more testing stations to discover the higher numbers on those streets, and then offer more banned streets. All of this will lead onto companies and businesses actively talking about moving out of the city over the next decade.
Oddly, they've picked a location for the dialog over on the west end of Wiesbaden, which has a sort of reputation (it's not a no-go area, but you would sit and question the choice here).
The One in Eleven Story
This got brought up today in German news. Only one German in eleven....has the financial capital or reserves....to plunk down the money and buy a house/condo. The other ten? Marginally fit in finances, or limited because of the high rent situation to accommodate enough wealth for the down-payment situation.
It's something that I often discuss in essays about the state of 'affordable housing' in Germany. If you go to any highly urbanized area....like Hamburg, Berlin or Frankfurt....then start discussing a two-bedroom apartment, it's just about impossible to talk in the 600 to 800 Euro range. Even if you did find something close to that price, then you start to find the issues of maintenance or a 'problem-neighborhood'. So you end up paying in the 800 to 1,200 Euro range. Salaries haven't escalated like rent prices over the past twenty years. So you drain your monthly reserves....that could have gone to long-term investments and helping you to afford the purchase of a house.
Most in this type of situation, will go and use 'shadow-communities'.....those towns resting 20 to 40 kilometers outside of the city, and find the cheaper housing situation but sign up to a 40 to 70 minute commute each day. Towns that have an access to the rapid-rail or train network, hype their connectivity, and typically the rents edge up.
Long-term....this one in eleven problem is a major problem and creating a massive negative in the future. But getting a solution for this is just about impossible.
It's something that I often discuss in essays about the state of 'affordable housing' in Germany. If you go to any highly urbanized area....like Hamburg, Berlin or Frankfurt....then start discussing a two-bedroom apartment, it's just about impossible to talk in the 600 to 800 Euro range. Even if you did find something close to that price, then you start to find the issues of maintenance or a 'problem-neighborhood'. So you end up paying in the 800 to 1,200 Euro range. Salaries haven't escalated like rent prices over the past twenty years. So you drain your monthly reserves....that could have gone to long-term investments and helping you to afford the purchase of a house.
Most in this type of situation, will go and use 'shadow-communities'.....those towns resting 20 to 40 kilometers outside of the city, and find the cheaper housing situation but sign up to a 40 to 70 minute commute each day. Towns that have an access to the rapid-rail or train network, hype their connectivity, and typically the rents edge up.
Long-term....this one in eleven problem is a major problem and creating a massive negative in the future. But getting a solution for this is just about impossible.
Monday, April 23, 2018
The Syrian Story
It came up in the news today that ALL Syrians have to register their property (houses, businesses, shops, condos, etc) have to register their property (in person) in four weeks.....or the property reverts to the government.
What this means? For those who fled, it's a reality that I suspect most knew it would happen sooner or later. It's a final door that closes, and if they make no effort.....they can never return.
Across Germany, I suspect that a quarter of the Syrian immigrants are sitting there and thinking heavily over this problem. Some owned shops.....homes....and see it slipping away. That group would likely think over this and the idea of going back.
I know....it's silly to get into this mindset. Most of the properties are heavily damaged. Some have no damage, but then you have to wonder if the 'war' is really over, and if it's worth leaving Germany.
Somewhere in the mix....I'll predict that a thousand Syrians approach the Germans for some kind of travel document and find enough money for a trip into Lebanon, and then just cross the border to lay claim to their old house or business.....then slip back into Lebanon and fly out to Germany.
The bulk of the Syrians in Germany....especially if under age 30? They aren't going back. Zero reason.
I think Assad's folks will lay claim to the unclaimed property, and it'll help to form some Census of the public number left. Of the pre-war population of 22-million, the reported best guess is that only 17-million reside in some form (maybe five million of this group is displaced and still living within the border).
What this means? For those who fled, it's a reality that I suspect most knew it would happen sooner or later. It's a final door that closes, and if they make no effort.....they can never return.
Across Germany, I suspect that a quarter of the Syrian immigrants are sitting there and thinking heavily over this problem. Some owned shops.....homes....and see it slipping away. That group would likely think over this and the idea of going back.
I know....it's silly to get into this mindset. Most of the properties are heavily damaged. Some have no damage, but then you have to wonder if the 'war' is really over, and if it's worth leaving Germany.
Somewhere in the mix....I'll predict that a thousand Syrians approach the Germans for some kind of travel document and find enough money for a trip into Lebanon, and then just cross the border to lay claim to their old house or business.....then slip back into Lebanon and fly out to Germany.
The bulk of the Syrians in Germany....especially if under age 30? They aren't going back. Zero reason.
I think Assad's folks will lay claim to the unclaimed property, and it'll help to form some Census of the public number left. Of the pre-war population of 22-million, the reported best guess is that only 17-million reside in some form (maybe five million of this group is displaced and still living within the border).
Sunday, April 22, 2018
This Mail Story
For a fairly long period, the German postal system has a problem with recruitment of letter carriers. N-TV (the German commercial news network) talks about this issue, and what the new solution is suggested to be.
The normal system, if you want to go and be a letter courier with the 'Post'.....you went into a entry-level program, and spent two years learning the entire system. If you went to most 15-year-old kids, and laid out the postal program, this two-year training program, the typical 820 Euro a month during the apprentice period....it was marginally attractive.
To be honest, delivering the mail, as I observed my dad in the profession....was one of the most boring jobs that you could ever get into. Most German kids seem to agree, and it's hard to attract anyone to sign up for the apprentice deal.
So, the Post is offering a new deal.....you just come in and start working at the normal pay-scale of 2,172 Euro a month, There would be a modified training program of some sort, and you'd take a test to certify yourself (roughly 90 days into this), to be called a delivery-agent.
Oddly....work councils and unions....aren't happy over the suggestion. To the degree, that this is apparently going to delay the work-agreement that was laid out.
When you stand back and admire what the Post admitted....was that it's clearly not a difficult skill area, and that you can kinda learn through a short period of time how to be a mail courier. Yes, rather shocking.
All these folks who are long-term unemployed and waiting for some retraining effort? Well....if you just walked in and said here I am.....I'm willing to do the 90-day training deal and then be a courier at 2,172 Euro a month.....well, you'd probably have a thousand people show up the next day and ask for details.
Does it make this two-year training program that has existed for years....a joke? Yes.
At various points in my life....I was dropped into a job-change where I knew absolutely nothing about the skill they wanted me to do. Three to six months later....I knew everything I needed to know, with a minimum of class-time or study effort to qualify myself. I think most jobs are that way....requiring just learning-by-doing, and an enthusiastic attitude.
The union is more or less pushed into the corner now.....it's really not as skilled as they suggest, and anyone off the street could do the job in just three months.
The normal system, if you want to go and be a letter courier with the 'Post'.....you went into a entry-level program, and spent two years learning the entire system. If you went to most 15-year-old kids, and laid out the postal program, this two-year training program, the typical 820 Euro a month during the apprentice period....it was marginally attractive.
To be honest, delivering the mail, as I observed my dad in the profession....was one of the most boring jobs that you could ever get into. Most German kids seem to agree, and it's hard to attract anyone to sign up for the apprentice deal.
So, the Post is offering a new deal.....you just come in and start working at the normal pay-scale of 2,172 Euro a month, There would be a modified training program of some sort, and you'd take a test to certify yourself (roughly 90 days into this), to be called a delivery-agent.
Oddly....work councils and unions....aren't happy over the suggestion. To the degree, that this is apparently going to delay the work-agreement that was laid out.
When you stand back and admire what the Post admitted....was that it's clearly not a difficult skill area, and that you can kinda learn through a short period of time how to be a mail courier. Yes, rather shocking.
All these folks who are long-term unemployed and waiting for some retraining effort? Well....if you just walked in and said here I am.....I'm willing to do the 90-day training deal and then be a courier at 2,172 Euro a month.....well, you'd probably have a thousand people show up the next day and ask for details.
Does it make this two-year training program that has existed for years....a joke? Yes.
At various points in my life....I was dropped into a job-change where I knew absolutely nothing about the skill they wanted me to do. Three to six months later....I knew everything I needed to know, with a minimum of class-time or study effort to qualify myself. I think most jobs are that way....requiring just learning-by-doing, and an enthusiastic attitude.
The union is more or less pushed into the corner now.....it's really not as skilled as they suggest, and anyone off the street could do the job in just three months.
Is There a Silicon Valley of Germany?
Yes, and no.
German tech geeks and political folks will argue that around a dozen Silicon Valleys exist in Germany today.....all less in nature....but significant.
The first one that typically pops up is Silicon Saxony....which exists on the north end of Dresden (the far eastern side of Germany). Somewhere between 250 and 300 companies (some are start-ups) exist there in this 'suburb', and the city will tell you that they've got 40,000 employees in the tech business. The curious thing with this city is that even before the Wall came down....under the old East German culture and society.....Dresden was the geek capital.
The second name that typically pops up is Silicon-Berlin. In this case, it's a number of smaller operations which have brought in non-Germans, and the hype is the culture and urban nature of the city.....which leads onto start-up companies feeling the hype.
The third name that is often mentioned is the Leipzig-Halle Airport area, and the nickname given is 'Solar Valley'. Naturally....the bulk of development here is with solar cells and batteries.
Another popular area is BioCon Valley, which exists in Mecklenburg. Their dynamic? Health sciences.
Measurement Valley? It's about an hour's drive north of Kassel (central Germany), in Gottingen. It would be an engineering magnet for development.
Silicon Woods? Well, it's a developmental park on the northeast end of Kaiserslautern, which has a strong relationship to the local university, and various start-up companies are staking out offices in the PRE-Park area of town.
What you see is generally a wider developmental mentality, with literally dozens of project areas getting cash funding and hype....leading onto various regions in development. All of these will become magnets in the future for engineering students.
German tech geeks and political folks will argue that around a dozen Silicon Valleys exist in Germany today.....all less in nature....but significant.
The first one that typically pops up is Silicon Saxony....which exists on the north end of Dresden (the far eastern side of Germany). Somewhere between 250 and 300 companies (some are start-ups) exist there in this 'suburb', and the city will tell you that they've got 40,000 employees in the tech business. The curious thing with this city is that even before the Wall came down....under the old East German culture and society.....Dresden was the geek capital.
The second name that typically pops up is Silicon-Berlin. In this case, it's a number of smaller operations which have brought in non-Germans, and the hype is the culture and urban nature of the city.....which leads onto start-up companies feeling the hype.
The third name that is often mentioned is the Leipzig-Halle Airport area, and the nickname given is 'Solar Valley'. Naturally....the bulk of development here is with solar cells and batteries.
Another popular area is BioCon Valley, which exists in Mecklenburg. Their dynamic? Health sciences.
Measurement Valley? It's about an hour's drive north of Kassel (central Germany), in Gottingen. It would be an engineering magnet for development.
Silicon Woods? Well, it's a developmental park on the northeast end of Kaiserslautern, which has a strong relationship to the local university, and various start-up companies are staking out offices in the PRE-Park area of town.
What you see is generally a wider developmental mentality, with literally dozens of project areas getting cash funding and hype....leading onto various regions in development. All of these will become magnets in the future for engineering students.
Bundestag Numbers Talk
There is a short N-TV (Germany's commercial news network) story today, which talks over the issue of the Bundestag's (the German parliament) numbers.
Since the fall election of 2017, there's been 709 folks sitting in the Bundestag (an all-time record). There's no country in Europe with that many folks of a political nature in their parliament.
This has been viewed for several months, and in the past week....the Bundestag President Wolfgang Schäuble...says that a reduction plan will be presented by the end of 2018.
An immediate reduction? No. Just about everyone, so says N-TV, would prefer that the system run through until the next election (normally, it'd be in September of 2021, unless called earlier).
The last Bundestag President wanted to keep a limit of 630 folks, and some folks will go and suggest it ought to go below 600 itself.
Since the fall election of 2017, there's been 709 folks sitting in the Bundestag (an all-time record). There's no country in Europe with that many folks of a political nature in their parliament.
This has been viewed for several months, and in the past week....the Bundestag President Wolfgang Schäuble...says that a reduction plan will be presented by the end of 2018.
An immediate reduction? No. Just about everyone, so says N-TV, would prefer that the system run through until the next election (normally, it'd be in September of 2021, unless called earlier).
The last Bundestag President wanted to keep a limit of 630 folks, and some folks will go and suggest it ought to go below 600 itself.
Friday, April 20, 2018
More to the BAMF Corruption Episode
So another piece to the corrupt immigration approval story came out late yesterday.
The basic story here....the German authorities have come to strongly suspect that four of the workers for BAMF (the German bureau that approves visas for migrants).....took cash from a middle-man situation (gang, mafia, etc)....to approve 2,000 cases (not the 1,200 originally suggested yesterday). No one says the amount per case. This could take six months to figure out the legal course to take, and if they have to force the applicants to hand over the visa, and start from scratch.
So ARD (public German TV, Channel One) came to lay out this one other piece to the story.....most of these people in the 2,000....are Kurds of a particular variety.
These are said to be Yazidis. I know....it's not a group that you commonly hear about.
Yazidis usually come from Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran, and are highly religious (note, they are not Muslims).
A lot of Yazidis come from Mosul and the Sinjar Mountain region.
Total number of Yazidis in the world? Generally, folks say half-a-million.....with some suggesting on up to one-million.
The unique prospective of this group? Well....once you are a Yazidis....you stay one. And you don't convert from another religion into Yazidis. So it's a family tradition (carried on for a thousand years now).
Curiously, if you were a fairly conservative Muslim....you generally label the Yazidis to be....well..."devil worshipers" because of this "angel peacock" which is the chief figure of their faith.
If you look over their religion....they've taken aspects of Islam, Christianity, and other religions....from a thousand years ago, and brought them into one central group. They will tell you first and foremost....they are descendants of Adam.
Generally, they don't talk to outsiders about their religion, and there are various aspects which are just 'unknown' in nature.
What makes no sense here is that they would be a persecuted group.....by ISIS, and a generally Muslim population. If you took the German rule-book on visa approvals....they'd get the points necessary to stay. So why pay some middle-guy? It makes no sense.
I would take an educated guess that they came upon some mafia-type folks, and wanted an absolute guaranteed visa approval, and the mafia-guy said X-amount.
The fact that the corruption episode has been laid out? It's an odd story now because it would appear that none of the Yazidis folks should have paid it in the first place, and someone slanted the whole process to make them believe they'd fail without paying.
The basic story here....the German authorities have come to strongly suspect that four of the workers for BAMF (the German bureau that approves visas for migrants).....took cash from a middle-man situation (gang, mafia, etc)....to approve 2,000 cases (not the 1,200 originally suggested yesterday). No one says the amount per case. This could take six months to figure out the legal course to take, and if they have to force the applicants to hand over the visa, and start from scratch.
So ARD (public German TV, Channel One) came to lay out this one other piece to the story.....most of these people in the 2,000....are Kurds of a particular variety.
These are said to be Yazidis. I know....it's not a group that you commonly hear about.
Yazidis usually come from Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran, and are highly religious (note, they are not Muslims).
A lot of Yazidis come from Mosul and the Sinjar Mountain region.
Total number of Yazidis in the world? Generally, folks say half-a-million.....with some suggesting on up to one-million.
The unique prospective of this group? Well....once you are a Yazidis....you stay one. And you don't convert from another religion into Yazidis. So it's a family tradition (carried on for a thousand years now).
Curiously, if you were a fairly conservative Muslim....you generally label the Yazidis to be....well..."devil worshipers" because of this "angel peacock" which is the chief figure of their faith.
If you look over their religion....they've taken aspects of Islam, Christianity, and other religions....from a thousand years ago, and brought them into one central group. They will tell you first and foremost....they are descendants of Adam.
Generally, they don't talk to outsiders about their religion, and there are various aspects which are just 'unknown' in nature.
What makes no sense here is that they would be a persecuted group.....by ISIS, and a generally Muslim population. If you took the German rule-book on visa approvals....they'd get the points necessary to stay. So why pay some middle-guy? It makes no sense.
I would take an educated guess that they came upon some mafia-type folks, and wanted an absolute guaranteed visa approval, and the mafia-guy said X-amount.
The fact that the corruption episode has been laid out? It's an odd story now because it would appear that none of the Yazidis folks should have paid it in the first place, and someone slanted the whole process to make them believe they'd fail without paying.
Corrupt Asylum Procedures?
It got brought up today by Focus (the German news magazine) that one worker with BAMF (the German Federal Office for Migration and Refugees is under investigation for having signed off on approved asylum in a massive way (1,200 episodes), but there were no real or truthful conditions met.
This goes to a division or group up in the Bremen area (north Germany).
The suggestion here? There are four folks tied into this government investigation.....a branch chief, and three lawyers who worked with the individual. The suggestion here is that some form of bribes took place. No one says any amount, or what this totals out.
Some suggestion via the way the way that the article was written....suggest that some gang or mafia-like group was part of the episode. My guess is that they represented the applicant in some way, and knew the way to float a cash envelope over to the BAMF folks.
So you stand back and look at the results here....a high number of folks who got a positive asylum application, when they probably should have failed.
What'll happen now? The journalists didn't really spell out this investigation. I would assume that you'd be talking about six months of tracking cash transfers and trying to coach these four folks to admit this and avoid a real court episode. What about the 1,200 individuals? Well....that's be a curious thing. You would think they'd drag the folks back into a room, and have them start from scratch....with most of them likely failing.
But here's this other factor.....is this Bremen office the ONLY one that took bribes? Will a massive investigation start up across all of the BAMF offices and they come to suggest dozens of other individuals took various bribes? You just don't know. Nor do I think that the German authorities really want to suggest to the public that there's a big corruption factor here.
I sat and pondered over the bribe detail.....left out of this entire story. I can't imagine the bribe being less than 1,000 Euro (each). If a gang-member or mafia-group was involved? Well....they'd want their cut, so you could be talking about a 1,500 Euro fee to get the mafia-guy and the BAMF guy all hooked up.
This goes to a division or group up in the Bremen area (north Germany).
The suggestion here? There are four folks tied into this government investigation.....a branch chief, and three lawyers who worked with the individual. The suggestion here is that some form of bribes took place. No one says any amount, or what this totals out.
Some suggestion via the way the way that the article was written....suggest that some gang or mafia-like group was part of the episode. My guess is that they represented the applicant in some way, and knew the way to float a cash envelope over to the BAMF folks.
So you stand back and look at the results here....a high number of folks who got a positive asylum application, when they probably should have failed.
What'll happen now? The journalists didn't really spell out this investigation. I would assume that you'd be talking about six months of tracking cash transfers and trying to coach these four folks to admit this and avoid a real court episode. What about the 1,200 individuals? Well....that's be a curious thing. You would think they'd drag the folks back into a room, and have them start from scratch....with most of them likely failing.
But here's this other factor.....is this Bremen office the ONLY one that took bribes? Will a massive investigation start up across all of the BAMF offices and they come to suggest dozens of other individuals took various bribes? You just don't know. Nor do I think that the German authorities really want to suggest to the public that there's a big corruption factor here.
I sat and pondered over the bribe detail.....left out of this entire story. I can't imagine the bribe being less than 1,000 Euro (each). If a gang-member or mafia-group was involved? Well....they'd want their cut, so you could be talking about a 1,500 Euro fee to get the mafia-guy and the BAMF guy all hooked up.
Germany: A Poverty Nation?
Back around ten years ago....it was not that uncommon for German public TV to run a 3-minute report on West Virginia, Mississippi, or some urban decayed neighborhood in the US.....to the serious troubles with poverty in the US.
Well....times have changed, and you tend to sit and observe the creation, maintenance, and continuation of poverty in Germany today.
Back three years ago, poverty was noted to be around 15-percent of the general population (82-million). In Berlin City alone....it's estimated in 2017 to be around 22.4-percent of the city population in the landscape of poverty.
What really happened over the past two decades to create this large problem?
First, some people go back 2003, when the government created a new jobs strategy, and the result of this was a direct path to mini-jobs (meaning part-time situations), and low-income jobs (the ones that never seem to rise, and it's just above the amount of minimum wage. I always to think of it as an exercise to create a 'burger-flipper' generation. Wages never went up.....people were sitting there with no real craft or skills, so they got the only jobs open.....burger-flipper occupations with no wage growth.
Second, back around a decade ago....you started to see a trend where people got laid off around age thirty to fifty (with no craft or skill certificate), and the Jobs-Center was stuck with a long-term unemployed guy. Their attitudes went to hell....they couldn't rate any real help, so they got used to the welfare system (Hartz IV). Why go back and waste time with the Job-Center.....just accept the minimum pay level they shovel out?
Third, this odd factor played into this trend.....kids sat there in these families and got bad attitudes as well. There's a foundation report from the end of 2017, which talks of the new number of German kids in poverty status.....21-percent of German kids exist in poverty today. There's no indication that they are leaving that status.
Fourth, the arrival of the migrants. Basically, the industrial and business sector is happy about the arrival of immigrants....mostly because they will take up jobs....even low-paying jobs (when the Hartz IV crowd won't). Migrants this week....are reported to be taking one of each two open jobs that come up via the Job-Center environment.
It's bad enough that people are talking about a massive change....dumping welfare and creating 'basic pay'....which would be some big step up....probably a 50-percent upgrade on pay. Course, it doesn't really change attitudes or get these folks jobs, but it gives a short reprieve from poverty. Who will pay for the taxes required? Don't ask....the political folks don't want to open this chat in a public way about paying for the increase.
It's an odd thing. Here's a country with 4.5-percent unemployment.....lots of educational opportunities.....all this social help....working day and night to keep the poverty trend in place. It's like they really don't want to change the path or flip this situation into a improved state.
Well....times have changed, and you tend to sit and observe the creation, maintenance, and continuation of poverty in Germany today.
Back three years ago, poverty was noted to be around 15-percent of the general population (82-million). In Berlin City alone....it's estimated in 2017 to be around 22.4-percent of the city population in the landscape of poverty.
What really happened over the past two decades to create this large problem?
First, some people go back 2003, when the government created a new jobs strategy, and the result of this was a direct path to mini-jobs (meaning part-time situations), and low-income jobs (the ones that never seem to rise, and it's just above the amount of minimum wage. I always to think of it as an exercise to create a 'burger-flipper' generation. Wages never went up.....people were sitting there with no real craft or skills, so they got the only jobs open.....burger-flipper occupations with no wage growth.
Second, back around a decade ago....you started to see a trend where people got laid off around age thirty to fifty (with no craft or skill certificate), and the Jobs-Center was stuck with a long-term unemployed guy. Their attitudes went to hell....they couldn't rate any real help, so they got used to the welfare system (Hartz IV). Why go back and waste time with the Job-Center.....just accept the minimum pay level they shovel out?
Third, this odd factor played into this trend.....kids sat there in these families and got bad attitudes as well. There's a foundation report from the end of 2017, which talks of the new number of German kids in poverty status.....21-percent of German kids exist in poverty today. There's no indication that they are leaving that status.
Fourth, the arrival of the migrants. Basically, the industrial and business sector is happy about the arrival of immigrants....mostly because they will take up jobs....even low-paying jobs (when the Hartz IV crowd won't). Migrants this week....are reported to be taking one of each two open jobs that come up via the Job-Center environment.
It's bad enough that people are talking about a massive change....dumping welfare and creating 'basic pay'....which would be some big step up....probably a 50-percent upgrade on pay. Course, it doesn't really change attitudes or get these folks jobs, but it gives a short reprieve from poverty. Who will pay for the taxes required? Don't ask....the political folks don't want to open this chat in a public way about paying for the increase.
It's an odd thing. Here's a country with 4.5-percent unemployment.....lots of educational opportunities.....all this social help....working day and night to keep the poverty trend in place. It's like they really don't want to change the path or flip this situation into a improved state.
Measles?
Measles up in Germany? Yes.
There's a piece with Deutsche Welle, and it chats over this odd story.
The authorities admit that the vaccination rate for the first shot....is near 95-percent. But they also report that they aren't near 95-percent on the second shot....being nearer to 93-percent. No one can explain the two-percent difference.
It's an article that really doesn't dig the upswing in measles cases in Germany. 929 cases were reported in 2017....triple what it was in 2016. A wave? To some degree. Roughly a quarter of those affected....end up in a hospital, and there's a small threat of serious problems.
Are all migrants, immigrants and visa-holders checked out? I sat and went over my visa-application-hour and paperwork required with the Auslander office. No....they never asked about TB or any measles shots. You would think they'd care, and want to mandate some proof or force you into taking more shots. But no....they didn't seem to care.
More upswing in 2018? It'll be curious to see the numbers in the spring of 2019.
There's a piece with Deutsche Welle, and it chats over this odd story.
The authorities admit that the vaccination rate for the first shot....is near 95-percent. But they also report that they aren't near 95-percent on the second shot....being nearer to 93-percent. No one can explain the two-percent difference.
It's an article that really doesn't dig the upswing in measles cases in Germany. 929 cases were reported in 2017....triple what it was in 2016. A wave? To some degree. Roughly a quarter of those affected....end up in a hospital, and there's a small threat of serious problems.
Are all migrants, immigrants and visa-holders checked out? I sat and went over my visa-application-hour and paperwork required with the Auslander office. No....they never asked about TB or any measles shots. You would think they'd care, and want to mandate some proof or force you into taking more shots. But no....they didn't seem to care.
More upswing in 2018? It'll be curious to see the numbers in the spring of 2019.
Heimatland Topic
WDR, a regional German public network (Northwest region), ran a live evening chat forum last night (Thursday). The hype? People and their personal opinion of the 'Heimatland' (the homeland).
I sat and watched about 30 minutes of this chatter. It went back and forth. The hype was that Germans can't agree on the Heimatland, and this wide discrepancy of feeling means that there is no true single description. So the anti-immigration crowd (who were there) were kinda forced off to the side. Pretty well conceived angle to manipulating people.
Forty years ago, you could have walked into any pub and asked a dozen Germans to explain Heimatland, and they would have given you a general 'heart-land' description....mostly blending into each others view of West Germany. Based on the 1990s....bring DDR into the picture....the media....immigration....it's all very difficult to construct a Heimatland now.
I asked the German wife to define it, and she made it clear....it's full of Germans, and has some wide landscape of geographic offerings (mountains, beaches, flat range, urbanization, etc). Then she kinda added....it's not a welfare state. Course, her description is one of 82-million descriptions.
In a way, I think WDR opened up a can of worms here because if you can get people confused about this Heimatland business....why not open up a chat about public TV, and ask what people want or don't want with public TV or the TV tax business.
I sat and watched about 30 minutes of this chatter. It went back and forth. The hype was that Germans can't agree on the Heimatland, and this wide discrepancy of feeling means that there is no true single description. So the anti-immigration crowd (who were there) were kinda forced off to the side. Pretty well conceived angle to manipulating people.
Forty years ago, you could have walked into any pub and asked a dozen Germans to explain Heimatland, and they would have given you a general 'heart-land' description....mostly blending into each others view of West Germany. Based on the 1990s....bring DDR into the picture....the media....immigration....it's all very difficult to construct a Heimatland now.
I asked the German wife to define it, and she made it clear....it's full of Germans, and has some wide landscape of geographic offerings (mountains, beaches, flat range, urbanization, etc). Then she kinda added....it's not a welfare state. Course, her description is one of 82-million descriptions.
In a way, I think WDR opened up a can of worms here because if you can get people confused about this Heimatland business....why not open up a chat about public TV, and ask what people want or don't want with public TV or the TV tax business.
Thursday, April 19, 2018
2019 Brandenburg Election?
I haven't essay much over German state elections for 2019....mostly because they are so 'far' in the future. Well....Focus brought up a little story today over a 2019 state election....for Brandenburg (on the far east side of Germany).
The election would occur in September of 2019.
There's a new survey done for the state, and it's a bit of a shocker.
Infratest dimap did the polling, and here's the layout:
SPD - 23 percent (lowest point in years)
CDU - sitting mostly where they were six months ago, 23 percent
AfD - anti-immigrant party, sitting at 22 percent
FDP - would fail to meet the five percent requirement
Linke Party - 17 percent
Green Party - 7 percent
If it were to stay this way? The SPD could pull out a win, but would be heavily dependent on the Greens and Linke Party to build a coalition.
If the AfD were to gain two or three points? Well....the problem of a coalition exists, and so far....no one will suggest they'd consider a partnership with them.
All of this however....goes to the internal problem in Germany that both the SPD and CDU have lost a good bit of public support and it's hurting them in regional contests.
The election would occur in September of 2019.
There's a new survey done for the state, and it's a bit of a shocker.
Infratest dimap did the polling, and here's the layout:
SPD - 23 percent (lowest point in years)
CDU - sitting mostly where they were six months ago, 23 percent
AfD - anti-immigrant party, sitting at 22 percent
FDP - would fail to meet the five percent requirement
Linke Party - 17 percent
Green Party - 7 percent
If it were to stay this way? The SPD could pull out a win, but would be heavily dependent on the Greens and Linke Party to build a coalition.
If the AfD were to gain two or three points? Well....the problem of a coalition exists, and so far....no one will suggest they'd consider a partnership with them.
All of this however....goes to the internal problem in Germany that both the SPD and CDU have lost a good bit of public support and it's hurting them in regional contests.
Toughness
Yesterday, here in Hessen....on A45 (autobahn) some 77-year old German gal was driving her car.
As HR tells the story....some piece of iron flew off the opposite side of the road and hit this gal's car window. You can see the damage caused.
For most folks (myself included)...it would have pretty much dissolved an emotional state of mind, and you would have wrecked the car in reacting to the windshield caving in like it did.
Shocker here? No real cuts or accident occurring. She brought the car to a stop. Some glass around the inside there, but the safety glass did exactly what it was supposed to do.
So the quote here? "Not a scratch."
Cops come out. Folks a bit surprised at what occurred. And the old German gal says things are fine, and she'd just drive on to her appointment (seeing a doctor). Yep, she intended to drive this car, with the windshield like was.....all the way to the appointment, and then back home.
On the German toughness scale....you'd have to rate this old gal as a '10', and my question obviously would have been over her husband (likely having passed on), and just how tough he was.....he was probably an '11').
Occasionally, you run into Germans like this. There are fewer and fewer of them though.
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