Sunday, April 29, 2018

German Polling Story

I noticed looking over the BILD am Sonntag (the BILD's Sunday newspaper) this morning....that a political reading was made with a polling group, and looking over national trends.....it's a bit of a change.

The CDU folks (Merkel's party)?  They've dropped down to 32-percent (not the lowest in the past six months, but a trend is setting in).  If you go back to the November period of last year (after the election), they did reach a 31-percent level. 

Why the downward trend?  No one with BILD talks much over that . 

The SPD?  Well....no change.  They weren't the ones gaining from the CDU lost numbers.  They stand at 18-percent.

The AfD (the anti-migrant/immigrant party)?  They moved up a notch to fourteen-percent.

The Greens (12-percent), the Linke (11-percent), and the FDP (9-percent) make no obvious changes.

Both the SPD and CDU need public numbers to return to the level of 2015 (before the immigrant negativity started up), and this period of three years before the next national election is supposed to give them a chance to lessen this whole negativity. 

If you go back to the period between 1949 and 1990....the two national parties used to take a combined 75-to-85 percent of the national vote between them.  Since the Wall came down....almost every single election has been a two-to-four point decrease on their combined vote pattern.  If you look at 2021's election....there is anticipated view that combined....they won't pass the 50-percent point. 

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